Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

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ArjunPandit
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Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

Starting this thread as a playground to discuss how pakistan is brought to its logical end and how the post collapse/dismemberment scenario look like. What will be the implications. Will update this as and when required
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

ks_sachin wrote:Hence blase statements like dismemberment are khayali pulao with too many imponderables?
..here you go sir.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

The following are the aspects I could think of
1. Water
2. Economics
3. Land allocation
4. Nukes
5. Military
6. Political & national set up
7. Key players
8. Deradicalization
9. Post war Trials
10. PoWs treatment

will write over time
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Y. Kanan »

ArjunPandit wrote:Starting this thread as a playground to discuss how pakistan is brought to its logical end and how the post collapse/dismemberment scenario look like. What will be the implications. Will update this as and when required
A bit premature, aren't we? How about you resurrect this thread in about 20 years. In fact, don't bother, because I'm quite sure Pakistan will be alive in well, in its current form, 20 years from now.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Pratyush »

TSP as an entity is not going anywhere as long as it is relatively cheap for its 3fathers to prop up.( UK is no longer in a position to do anything.)

Unless India finds a way to make the KSA go UK way. US will pull out of Afghanistan and that will end it's involvement with TSP. Thereby reducing 3 father's to 2.

That leaves us with the task of dealing with KSA. How do we reduce KSA's position in the next 10 years to that of current day UK is the most important question I am concerned with.

As long as the world is dependent on oil. KSA will be the most important factor in keeping the TSP going.

I am not counting on PRC at the moment as a significant player that can meet the role of the other 2. Not in next 20 years time.

What I am really saying in my long winded post is IB4TL.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Aditya_V »

+1 for Most Outsiders, TSP is value is to contain India and is one of the tools to keep India emerging as competitor on the Global scene.

Until our economy and domestic, Industry and Military complex of weapons complete outclasses them and we have surplus militarily production which can be diverted to Pathans and we are too powerful for other nations to try and make enemy off all attempts will be made to keep TSP afloat.

Key will be for us to expand

1. Expand our Nuclear power production exponentially

2. Expand key technologies with domestic capability for shipping, manufacturer of electronics, store major data on Indian servers- become very important in the global economy. Have Indian companies all over the globe to such as in Africa, South America etc.

3. 10-15 years massive expansion in miltary production that a)We can launch an offensive war knock out PAF, PN, air defenses, radars, missile launchers, OIl storage facilities, Power plants, Food storage and transport infrastructure in a maater of hours b) Keep Pakis are fighting an atritional conflict in baluchistan and KP b) Do the same attritional conflict LOC costing Paki army in men and equipment in disproportionate numbers.

4. Try to get Pakis as much to de industrialize, i.e encourage mining, leather mass meat eating at the cost of agriculture, textiles industries etc.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

Y. Kanan wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:Starting this thread as a playground to discuss how pakistan is brought to its logical end and how the post collapse/dismemberment scenario look like. What will be the implications. Will update this as and when required
A bit premature, aren't we? How about you resurrect this thread in about 20 years. In fact, don't bother, because I'm quite sure Pakistan will be alive in well, in its current form, 20 years from now.
Wont that be exactly what brf prides itself "ahead of curve". Arent at least 99% of us armchair gernails???This is another hypothetical thread, just like neutering and defanging china thread perhaps. Are we any close to neutering or defanging it? Either now or in say next 20 years.At best we are hoping for them to make mistakes and implode.
If you prefer sophistication, let's call it theoretical exercise. On a serious note, even if they exist 20 years from now, I wont be the same fool hoping that they would collapse in next 5 years of modi govt, as you already educated me about their survival instincts. I respect your opinion and would add "if" to the thread name.
Even if its 50 years I my bones in ganges and ash in bay of bengal would be happy to have dreamt of avenging the partition of my motherland. Who knows in my next life I would be playing a role in it.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by SSridhar »

Pratyush wrote:TSP as an entity is not going anywhere as long as it is relatively cheap for its 3fathers to prop up.( UK is no longer in a position to do anything.)
New 'Fathers' (or Friends, the original formulation 3½ designation) would appear. That's the beauty of Pakistan. When you think it cannot go down any further, it surprises you by going down further or even surviving.

The new turn in Afghanistan and other developments like the emerging new Cold War, or whatever, would be put to excellent use by Pakistan.

There is no end game in sight, notwithstanding the dire economic situation. For Pakistan, this is cyclical.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Ramu »

The endgame is balkanization.
Every little thing that helps in tightening the screws should be done.

MFN status and it's perks should be removed.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

there is no escaping from karm (or kukarm in pakistan's case ). We're seeing that in Britain. Pakistan as it came into existence no longer exists. What I desire is, it being reduced to a mass that is inconsequential to India from military , economic and geographic perspective.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by SBajwa »

Saudi Arabia and middle east (West Asia) will become irrelevant in 10-15 years as oil prices are dropping and world moves on from dependence on oil to cleaner fuel. They won't be able to help Bakistan and it will come to its logical end. If the way things are going then in next 5 years there will be a civil war inside Bakistan. At this time Baki military is too strong and sooner or later they will have to cut back (due to economic issues) . Then Muhajirs, Balochis and Pashtuns will hurt them.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Ramu »

The direct and indirect influence of Pakistan over India should not be overlooked. Their ability to influence India's prosperity and security via Congress should be remembered every day. This indirect influence is more dangerous than any direct war or a terrorist attack. No terrorist attack this year doesn't mean the threat has gone away. Balkanization is the only answer. Removing it's identity is the permanent solution.

Water, electricity and agriculture are the most vulnerable easy to exploit.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ricky_v »

The endgame of pakistan cannot be brought about by only destroying its institutions like most nations, its people need to be defeated as well, because the stupid and malicious in our nation are their biggest supporter and will prop them up in the name of South Asia solidarity.
Suppose still that their institutions are weakened, but then some cutiya reminisces about lahori dik and how sucking it reminded him of his childhood. What we need is a scheme of things to create fuss and fukery all over the country, for example drugs, which have not penetrated the paki market despite its strategic location.
tldr: The pakis have to be made despondent because destroying their set-up is not enough.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

There can be end game in sight, IF India acts. At least we can make their survival not so much of a survival. By now we must have gotten some sense and could have acted. No one acts for us, we cant hope to merely stare at TSP and wish it wither away on it's own. We had so many chances including 1971 defeat of TSP, we let their prisoners free and didn't bother to do anything about PoK in return, even after defeating them.
We can and we should and we must interfere in Balochistan and give support to Pashthun struggle. TSP celebrated "Kashmir solidarity day" and what is that we do wrt to the opportunities are that staring at us? nothing. We would have felt if we are doing something covertly.
We don't even act to get back PoK, except "protest" every 6 months. So till then TSP is not going anywhere, it will remain peacefully, and we pay the price for it.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

^^to that point, a multi decade mental rehabilitation program would be required. The curricullum would have to be deradicalized. That would be the most important task. Also, my view point is that it can not be india against pakis. Indian aggression will be binding force for them. It has to be internal fights.
Coming to the price, maintaining a large force on western border, maintaining intelligence inside in very high numbers to prevent attacks on indian soil is a cost. Fencing etc is a cost. I am not even going the opportunity cost of trading with non punjabi populations. Two way trade with non-punjabi partners could be one possibility. Easy transit to Central asia is another opportunity cost. Those are subjetivities. But the direct cost is huge.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by SBajwa »

The pakistani muslims have always been controlled by non-muslims. I am not sure why we (Indians) give them too much respect. Hari Singh Nalwa had the right attitude which is give them 3 days notice and if not complied burn everything down., rest fall in place.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sudeepj »

We are a fighting oriented forum, most participants have some emotional or familial connection with the armed forces, so a lot of the focus is at War oriented 'solutions' for Pakistan.

But open wars are unpredictable and dangerous. Further, multiple variants of Indian leadership have stopped well short of War. The closest we got was Parakram, which bore a lot of fruit in the form of reduced support for terrorism and the resultant explosion of violence within Pakistan.

The reality is that Pakistan is **NOT** a West Phalian state that is primarily concerned about the welfare of its population. It is an ideological state with an elite that sees itself as descendants of Qutubbudin Aibak, and is primarily concerned with exporting Islamic revolution. What India wants is a change in this mindset.

There are many ways to skin this cat and many strategies can be followed:

1. Weaken the elite by delivering devastating H&D blows, such as the Bin Laden raid, coupled with propaganda through Bollywood and desi media.
2. Make the elite pay a practical price. Right now, beating on India is a win-win game for the Paki elite. India does not retaliate, and their status is elevated in their home societies. The price can be sanctions imposed by the Indian parliament, snatch operations, targeting their assets and industries abroad, targeting their properties along the border, kinetic options against poorly defended targets that the elite value etc. etc. etc.
3. Focus on becoming the South Korea to their North Korea.
4. Do in India what needs to be done regardless of whatever they say. As a first step, we should get rid of 35A and 370.
5. Let Pakistani elite establish trade relations. Once they reach a good enough size, hold these hostage.
6. Weaken internal Pakistani cohesion. The Pashtun especially are an ethnic minority that has suffered greatly at the hands of the Pakistani machinations.
7. The IWT. India should withdraw from this treaty. A sovereign nation is under no requirement to be in a treaty against its will. Some capability to use Eastern waters needs to be developed first.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by VKumar »

Mark my words, these animals only respect a thrashing and any subtle talk is considered as a sign of weakness.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Supratik »

There will be multiple theaters in this end game. Weaken them first in whole J&K sector. Remove Art 35A. If possible remove Art 370 through courts and without going to parliament. Start with nibbling territory in POK. Then move onto other things like Balochistan, Karachi and Sindh.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

one thing that i hv been wondering is why didnt Indian govt consider hitting them from behind our lines through arti attacks across the IB across the board. THe following are the reasons i could think of
1. Their Retaliation on our population centers
2. International pressure
3. or potentially our own weakness in artillery field. However, that would be gone in next 4-5 years.
My viewpoint is that with the current set of arti guns and even tejas, we can inflict acute pain on them. If not anything we must act on the IWT and other lever
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

sudeepj wrote:
5. Let Pakistani elite establish trade relations. Once they reach a good enough size, hold these hostage.
Agree with all but this. It will be the other way round. We will be held hostage, esp when govts are corrupt and weak.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

5. Let Pakistani elite establish trade relations. Once they reach a good enough size, hold these hostage.
Interestingly this is also the thought process of some of the paki “strategists” too. They want to open up trade routes to the Central asia via Pakistan, they want to give assurances for TAPi pipeline(not that we are ready), so India completes this project, then they also want to trade with India to reach in multi billions $(they give example of India-China trade), all this so they have us by our ball$. Right now they regret that they dont have such a leverage over India but We can squeeeze them via IWT.

So the above is exactly what the Pakis want.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

Also any trade with them means, funding their terrorism and lerting them live for ever.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by SBajwa »

If USA leaves Afghanistan then We must have boots on ground in Afghanistan!! at least 2 infantry divisions and 1 mechanized division with 2 squadrons of Air Force.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

^^^ +1, Pakis too can have their over version of 2 front war.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by ArjunPandit »

SBajwa wrote:If USA leaves Afghanistan then We must have boots on ground in Afghanistan!! at least 2 infantry divisions and 1 mechanized division with 2 squadrons of Air Force.
I dont see us moving in that direction. Neither from capacity nor from willingness perspective. If anything those would become high value targets in a country run by talibunnies. What would be better is to do a reverse talibanization. Afghans are inside pakistan in large #s. A formal military presence is costly to sustain. Let them devote their resources on fencing and maintaining fences. Few snipers & IEDs here and there will make them go paranoid feel scared. OTOH, there's little we can do. I dont think with AfgheExit coming up coming us would like to do anything odd apart from old tested formula of cuddling with pakis.
In a nutshell better to fight from closer home and take the war their home progressively
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sudeepj »

venug wrote:
5. Let Pakistani elite establish trade relations. Once they reach a good enough size, hold these hostage.
Interestingly this is also the thought process of some of the paki “strategists” too. They want to open up trade routes to the Central asia via Pakistan, they want to give assurances for TAPi pipeline(not that we are ready), so India completes this project, then they also want to trade with India to reach in multi billions $(they give example of India-China trade), all this so they have us by our ball$. Right now they regret that they dont have such a leverage over India but We can squeeeze them via IWT.

So the above is exactly what the Pakis want.
In the ultimate calculation, what is the picture of Pak we want to see? We want to see a West Phalian state that eschews interference in Indian affairs. Such a state will also increase the size of the Indian prosperity zone. Reducing Pak to a state like Afghanistan is probably not in the best interests of India. Though a broken up Pak can be much easier to convert to a normal state.

Who will govern the statelets that emerge from the mess? Are we going to appoint an Indian viceroy? What interests will the new leadership have in coming under the Indian chatra-chaya?

A state like Pakistan, that is 1/20th the size of India and that depends on Indian dole can simply not pressure us using economic weapons. The TAPI pipeline was a bad idea for many reasons but diffuse trade relations are likely a much longer term investment in the Indian vision of a shared Indian prosperity zone that include Pk, BD, Nepal, SriLanka, Myanmar & Indonesia.

In war, some times you give an inch here to take up a mile elsewhere.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by sudeepj »

SBajwa wrote:If USA leaves Afghanistan then We must have boots on ground in Afghanistan!! at least 2 infantry divisions and 1 mechanized division with 2 squadrons of Air Force.
This will break every rule of military strategy.. cohesion of forces, lines of communication, logistics, focusing all strength on one objective. The US broke all these rules too, but we dont have the Khan's resources to survive such mistakes. If we are to fight Pakistani Jihadis, its better done on the Eastern bank of the Indus.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Supratik »

Getting into Afghn will be a mistake. Use proxies. Blchistan is more reachable.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

In the ultimate calculation, what is the picture of Pak we want to see? We want to see a West Phalian state that eschews interference in Indian affairs. Such a state will also increase the size of the Indian prosperity zone. Reducing Pak to a state like Afghanistan is probably not in the best interests of India. Though a broken up Pak can be much easier to convert to a normal state.
.....
A state like Pakistan, that is 1/20th the size of India and that depends on Indian dole can simply not pressure us using economic weapons.
Sudeep ji, Americans too doled TSP with billions saying "failed TSP with nukes is not in their best interests", they didn't want TSP and nukes to fall into terrorists hands once balkanized, TSP fanned this sentiment of the west with "gun to it's head" and milked it till now.
We already have Nepal, SriLanka, even Maldives, which pressurize(d) us economically or otherwise even though they depended or still depend on our doles. Why is TSP any different? in fact it is exactly what Pakis want to use - economic terrorism once we increase trade with them, now you will give them one more rock to smash our face with. They are very vocal about it.
Who will govern the statelets that emerge from the mess? Are we going to appoint an Indian viceroy? What interests will the new leadership have in coming under the Indian chatra-chaya?
Who governed the mess after Pakistan was broken into two in 1971? did we appoint a viceroy? PoK will merge back with India. Balochistan will be a new entity. Afghanistan will be free without Pakistan meddling in their internal affairs. We denuke and demilitarize what remains of Pakistan, making sure Chinese don't control Gwadar. Why appoint viceroys? At least you will have less hostile neighbors on your western borders.
In war, some times you give an inch here to take up a mile elsewhere.
No, in war you make sure your enemy is decimated, giving an inch and take a mile is when you have no choice and pushed into a corner or when war is thrust on you and when you are caught unawares and unprepared. When you want to dictate the turns of events in a war, why do you want to give even an inch?
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Kashi »

venug wrote:Who governed the mess after Pakistan was broken into two in 1971? did we appoint a viceroy? PoK will merge back with India. Balochistan will be a new entity.
Did Bangladesh "merge back with" India?
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by VKumar »

But POJ and GB are integral parts of India and must be remerged.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Kashi »

So was Bangladesh at one point. We did not even insist on the rightful return of Chittagong hill tracts that by all means , should have been a part of India, especially so in view of the genocide of Hindus in East Pakistan in 1971. And less than 25 years had passed since India was partitioned.

POJ/K including GB have been under the NaPakistani boot for nearly 3 times as long, the demography has been changed completely. Absorbing these regions along with their resident rabid Baki population will a non-trivial challenge.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

Yes I do agree Kashi ji. 1971 was agolden opportunity, we didnt even put forth a demand for unification of Bdesh back, but also none for PoK. But does that mean this time too we wont and we shouldnt? If this time we wont, then we shouldnt not even mention anything about breaking Pakistan. May be we can stare at it and wish it withers away on it’s own. If anyone has right over POK, its us. Secondly, Hyderabad has sizable muslim popuation with a muslim ruler, if only Sardar Patel thought of demographics, perhaps, he too would have left it alone and Hyderabad would have never merged with Indian union. And also China is in TSP now, I am not a military guy, but if we take back POK, chinese Gwadar operation will be untenable. I didnt mean to say it will be easy, but then, what are our options?
Last edited by venug on 09 Feb 2019 17:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Peregrine »

venug wrote:Interestingly this is also the thought process of some of the paki “strategists” too. They want to open up trade routes to the Central asia via Pakistan, they want to give assurances for TAPi pipeline(not that we are ready), so India completes this project, then they also want to trade with India to reach in multi billions $(they give example of India-China trade), all this so they have us by our ball$. Right now they regret that they dont have such a leverage over India but We can squeeeze them via IWT.

So the above is exactly what the Pakis want.
sudeep wrote: In the ultimate calculation, what is the picture of Pak we want to see? We want to see a West Phalian state that eschews interference in Indian affairs. Such a state will also increase the size of the Indian prosperity zone. Reducing Pak to a state like Afghanistan is probably not in the best interests of India. Though a broken up Pak can be much easier to convert to a normal state.

Who will govern the statelets that emerge from the mess? Are we going to appoint an Indian viceroy? What interests will the new leadership have in coming under the Indian chatra-chaya?

A state like Pakistan, that is 1/20th the size of India and that depends on Indian dole can simply not pressure us using economic weapons. The TAPI pipeline was a bad idea for many reasons but diffuse trade relations are likely a much longer term investment in the Indian vision of a shared Indian prosperity zone that include Pk, BD, Nepal, SriLanka, Myanmar & Indonesia.

In war, some times you give an inch here to take up a mile elsewhere.
sudeep Ji:
The TAPI Pipeline is IMHO the Worst Idea of Terroristan holding India Hostage just as Terroristan holding the US and NATO hostage - always maintained that it was the Terrorists who were Responsible - by Blowing up OR LOOTING-TAKING OVER- TORCHING etc US-NATO consignments of Oil. Stores and of course Weapons including HUMVEES, TANKS Ityaadi, and Ityadi.

Many Moons ago I posted the following Article - at that time the Author was is in Risk Management with a London Based Investment Bank - which listed the Dangers of a Pipeline through Terroristan :

The Article : THE PIPELINE PERPLEXITY : DR. BHASKAR DASGUPTA

The Risks enumerated in the Article are still prevailing i.e. Increasing Transit Charges unilaterally, disrupting the Flow of the Natural Gas or even Oil as well as giving the Indian Trucks the same treatment as given to the US-NATO convoys.

Similarly INDIA MUST NOT ALLOW TERRORISTANI LAND-TRANSPORTATION to and from Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and finally China - yes indeed China especially trade to Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Guangdong etc.

It will be good to know the views of my fellow B-RFites!

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

If we trade with TSP, we are repeating mistakes of US, then we would be wishing and enabling a stable and successful Pakistan. Wishing that a stable and economically strong Pakistan is in India's interest is not a good idea to put it mildly. If we open transit to TSP via India, we are opening our markets to Chinese products. We will be part of CPEC, intentionally or not. What an irony that would be...we hand over PoK to our enemies, and then help them not only encircle us, but also make them rich, stronger and take our markets. To put it crudely that would be F***ing ourselves.
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by venug »

A thought experiment. God forbid, but say tomorrow Nagaland announces it secedes from Indian union, with 90% Christian population, some evangelicals with western gov and chinese help announce they are not a part of Indian union because they are 90% christian. So are we going to not try to merge it back? or are we going to say, they are christian and it is going to be difficult, and we shouldnt attempt merging?
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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Peregrine »

venug wrote:If we trade with TSP, we are repeating mistakes of US, then we would be wishing and enabling a stable and successful Pakistan. Wishing that a stable and economically strong Pakistan is in India's interest is not a good idea to put it mildly. If we open transit to TSP via India, we are opening our markets to Chinese products. We will be part of CPEC, intentionally or not. What an irony that would be...we hand over PoK to our enemies, and then help them not only encircle us, but also make them rich, stronger and take our markets. To put it crudely that would be F***ing ourselves.
venug Ji :

Amen to THAT!

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Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by darshhan »

SBajwa wrote:If USA leaves Afghanistan then We must have boots on ground in Afghanistan!! at least 2 infantry divisions and 1 mechanized division with 2 squadrons of Air Force.
Instead of keeping 2 or 3 divisions in afghanistan, it would be better to keep upwards of 10 divisions in what is now Pakistan.
Singha
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Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

Post by Singha »

the game is over. bangladesh has won and gap is only going to widen

https://www.dawn.com/news/1462757?fbcli ... W6khr1zr_o

Pervez Hoodbhoy: Bangladesh's growth rate last year (7.8%) was higher than Pakistan's (5.8%), its debt per capita ($434) is less than half that for Pakistan ($974), and its foreign exchange reserves ($32 billion) are four times Pakistan’s ($8 billion).
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