2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Apr 2019 06:44

Liloji: I did gather that the 1 was 100. But there seems to be something very discontinuous about the values over time. In 1978 the USD was 6INR. Todin it is nearly 70. Relative to gold the USD has declined quite a bit. Anyway, OT for this thread, thanks, will research it a bit more. It's of great interest elsewhere.
Hanumaduji and others:
See this article from July 2015. Has the situation of the Indian rural person improved THAT much in 3 years? At this rate they'll be billionaires in no time, hain?
75 percent of rural India survives on Rs 33 per day
More than half of rural households depend on manual labour for livelihood, and 75 percent of the rural population, or 133.5 million families, earn less than Rs.5,000 per month.


The stuff coming out of the Guvrmand departments looks fine as data, but how does one reconcile these things?

williams
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby williams » 02 Apr 2019 07:06

hanumadu wrote:This time last elections, we were expecting around 220 seats max for BJP and perhaps 160 so Modi can't be the PM.
This time BJP by itself is expected to get more than 220 seats but the unease is much more. Congress has made it clear, that it won't hesitate to take India down to save the first family. NYAY is a surgical strike on our economy.


So in 2014 BJP numbers were weak in the South, but that was made up by record wins in the North especially UP. So the question really is can BJP match the same numbers in 2019 or make some inroads in Bengal and Odisha that will balance out. Nobody cares about NYAY. People know it is not going to work out.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 02 Apr 2019 07:42

UlanBatori wrote:Hanumaduji and others:
See this article from July 2015. Has the situation of the Indian rural person improved THAT much in 3 years? At this rate they'll be billionaires in no time, hain?
75 percent of rural India survives on Rs 33 per day
More than half of rural households depend on manual labour for livelihood, and 75 percent of the rural population, or 133.5 million families, earn less than Rs.5,000 per month.


The stuff coming out of the Guvrmand departments looks fine as data, but how does one reconcile these things?


The authors of the article I posted and their data seem to be largely independent of govt data.
http://www.ramabijapurkar.com/about-rama


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajesh_Shukla_(statistician)

From your article, the Rs 5000/month figure seems to be from 2007. The 5000/month translates to 33/day (as per the article).
"A preliminary analysis reveals a grim picture of rural areas with three in four rural households earning less than Rs.5,000 per month and almost 90 percent of households have incomes of less than Rs.10,000 per month," Himanshu (he uses only one name), an agricultural economist with Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University wrote in Mint, citing the findings of the Arjun Sengupta committee (2007), which identified 77 percent of India's population as poor.


The Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) survey that the article quotes itself seems to have been carried out in 2011 though it may have been released in 2015.

So assuming a 8 to 10% rise in percapita income per year, the numbers from both the articles seem to be in tune with each other.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby manjgu » 02 Apr 2019 07:55

the educated people know NYAY is poll time balloon ..but many people in villages etc do get suckered in by all these promises... i wuld advise MOdi or one of his partner partyies to announce dole for people registered in employment exchanges... as a counter. One thing i didnt understand , EC code of conduct prohibits any major policy announcement..is this only for ruling party??

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 02 Apr 2019 08:48

hanumadu wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Hanumaduji and others:
See this article from July 2015. Has the situation of the Indian rural person improved THAT much in 3 years? At this rate they'll be billionaires in no time, hain?


The stuff coming out of the Guvrmand departments looks fine as data, but how does one reconcile these things?

.........

From your article, the Rs 5000/month figure seems to be from 2007. The 5000/month translates to 33/day (as per the article).

There are many more recent estimates on India's poverty rates.

Trend of "Extreme Poverty" in India in the last few Years as on June 2018.This pegs India's extreme poor at 73 million people or 5.3 percent of our population.
WorldBank definition of "Extreme Poverty" is used here - i.e those living on less than $1.9 a day = 1.9 USD * 3.8 (PPP deflator) =0.5 USD in India = Rs 35
Therefore those living under 35 Rs per day in India is 5% as of now.
Lilo wrote:Nearly 44 Indians come out of extreme poverty every minute: Brookings Study
Defining extreme poverty as living on less than $1.9 a day, a recent study(Jun 2018) published in a Brookings blog says that by 2022, less than 3 per cent of Indians will be poor and extreme poverty could be eliminated altogether by 2030.

New Delhi: India is no longer the country with the largest number of poor as Nigeria has taken that unwanted position, The Times of India reported citing a study published in the ‘Future Development’ blog of Brookings. According to the study, about 44 Indians come out of extreme poverty every minute, one of the fastest rates of poverty reduction in the world and if the trend continues, then India could drop to the number 3 position later this year with the Democratic Republic of the Congo taking the number 2 spot.Defining extreme poverty as living on less than $1.9 a day, a recent study published in a Brookings blog says that by 2022, less than 3 per cent of Indians will be poor and extreme poverty could be eliminated altogether by 2030. “At the end of May 2018, our trajectories suggest that Nigeria had about 87 million people in extreme poverty, compared with India’s 73 million. What is more, extreme poverty in Nigeria is growing by six people every minute, while poverty in India continues to fall,” TOI quoted the study published in the ‘Future Development’ blog of Brookings as saying.However, because of differences in how poverty is measured, the estimates of extreme poverty reduction may not match with the numbers published by the Government of India, the TOI report said. According to the World Bank, between 2004 and 2011 poverty declined in India from 38.9 per cent of the population to 21.2 per cent (2011 purchasing power parity at $1.9 per person per day).Economists say rapid economic growth has helped India eradicate extreme poverty. The TOI report quoting N R Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy said "assumption that India would be able to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030 seems realistic given the country’s record in the past 10 years in reducing poverty and its ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals." “Going ahead, the challenge is to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, which will help realise the study’s findings that India would be able to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030,” Bhanumurthy told TOI.

Image


A much wider & comprehensive measure called Multi Dimensional Poverty Index pegs India's "Multidimentionally Poor" at 27% of total Population in 2015.
Image

A comparison with China
In December 2011, the Chinese government announced it would lift the country’s rural poverty line from 1,274 yuan per year in 2010 to 2,300 yuan, an increase of over 80 percent. This, once adjusted by the purchasing power parity of 2005, is equivalent to approximately US$1.80 per day, a threshold well above the US$1.25 used by the World Bank for international poverty comparisons.


That JNU commie brof Himanshu citing that Arjun Sengupta report from 2007 claiming 77% Indians to be below poverty line now in 2015 is as absurd as it can get.
The list of farticles by this commie brof from JNU can be seen here - nothing but sky is falling kind of tripe with cretin level analysis.
https://www.livemint.com/Search/Link/Author/Himanshu
Last edited by Lilo on 02 Apr 2019 17:32, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby venkat_r » 02 Apr 2019 10:44

arshyam wrote:Negi-ji, please don't compare CBN and SMK, especially with monikers like "best CM", etc. :lol:. Light years' difference. I am yet to see a KA CM with a vision for BLR, let alone for the state. Similarly, there is no comparison between infra in BLR and HYD, the latter is streets ahead with better roads, traffic management, mass transit, etc. a lot of whose foundations were laid by CBN. BLR was actually much better earlier and has only regressed over the years, and continues to slide down a bottomless abyss, what with the current CM obsessed over elevated roads, steel flyovers and associated shite; can't say that for HYD by any stretch of imagination. Can it be better? Sure. Could CBN have done better? Absolutely. When building up Hyd, he didn't pay much attention to rural AP, or so the story goes. Reminds me of a certain "India shining" campaign by a govt that did great work, but which benefited cities first and got voted out. But did that make that govt worthless?

Now, coming back to the current demand for special package, etc., CBN seems to have lost his mojo in divided AP and is milking the situ for staying relevant in the coming election; AP by itself has enough resources to stand on its feet - excellent rail infra, long coastline with scope for multiple ports, huge tracts of agri land with large rivers, and a well-educated populace ready to take advantage of good govt policies. GoI has clearly supported the state with enough grants, full funding for Polavaram, etc., so I don't know where this constant rona-dhona is coming from. Reminds me of a certain neighbouring state to the south, which is a powerhouse in multiple industries and still has many "social" people crying about Mudi this and that. Thankfully, the real-doers there keep doing what needs to be done and so the economy continues to boom. Similarly, AP simply has to follow the same model of mixed development and play to its advantages and not keep looking for IT investments in Amaravathi.

In the long run, I feel TS got the shorter-end of the stick, as apart from Hyd there is nothing to build upon, and they are land-locked and river locked. As long as HYD does well, TS will prosper, looks like. Will be interesting to see how TS does a decade later.



Had to post this, as most seem to think that nothing major was done by CBN, I believe he did a good job with the development, and a great job to calm the emotions of the people, all development in India has been centered around urbanization and the FDI and the revenue for the state comes from the cities. The biggest fear of the people was the loss of capital city, jobs and educational institutions.

In my opinion, Naidu did a good job initially supported by BJP, and later on irrespective of them, the piece that most people talk about,that he should move on, I think was probably best done by him. It was estimated that new state would be 16K chores deficit if split and CBN had been asking to give a fighting chance to the new state to bring it to a level playing field. This was promised in the parliament and to be fair some were done initially, but BJP decided that they would not honor the special status and provide special package, which was also not give properly - CBN put his weight behind the spl package, and lost some political mileage when that was also not given, and finally had to exit the NDA.

If anything, forget the politics, I think people of AP, and others I think owe it to CBN for handling the sensitive situation after bifurcation as people were very emotional, of course gained politically too.

Well I leave t at that, I can post enough data to show how the people of AP have been cheated, but to say that they did not vote for BJP or voted for Congress so they should suffer, is not right.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 02 Apr 2019 11:00

venkat_r wrote:
arshyam wrote:Negi-ji, please don't compare CBN and SMK, especially with monikers like "best CM", etc. :lol:. Light years' difference. I am yet to see a KA CM with a vision for BLR, let alone for the state. Similarly, there is no comparison between infra in BLR and HYD, the latter is streets ahead with better roads, traffic management, mass transit, etc. a lot of whose foundations were laid by CBN. BLR was actually much better earlier and has only regressed over the years, and continues to slide down a bottomless abyss, what with the current CM obsessed over elevated roads, steel flyovers and associated shite; can't say that for HYD by any stretch of imagination. Can it be better? Sure. Could CBN have done better? Absolutely. When building up Hyd, he didn't pay much attention to rural AP, or so the story goes. Reminds me of a certain "India shining" campaign by a govt that did great work, but which benefited cities first and got voted out. But did that make that govt worthless?

Now, coming back to the current demand for special package, etc., CBN seems to have lost his mojo in divided AP and is milking the situ for staying relevant in the coming election; AP by itself has enough resources to stand on its feet - excellent rail infra, long coastline with scope for multiple ports, huge tracts of agri land with large rivers, and a well-educated populace ready to take advantage of good govt policies. GoI has clearly supported the state with enough grants, full funding for Polavaram, etc., so I don't know where this constant rona-dhona is coming from. Reminds me of a certain neighbouring state to the south, which is a powerhouse in multiple industries and still has many "social" people crying about Mudi this and that. Thankfully, the real-doers there keep doing what needs to be done and so the economy continues to boom. Similarly, AP simply has to follow the same model of mixed development and play to its advantages and not keep looking for IT investments in Amaravathi.

In the long run, I feel TS got the shorter-end of the stick, as apart from Hyd there is nothing to build upon, and they are land-locked and river locked. As long as HYD does well, TS will prosper, looks like. Will be interesting to see how TS does a decade later.



Had to post this, as most seem to think that nothing major was done by CBN, I believe he did a good job with the development, and a great job to calm the emotions of the people, all development in India has been centered around urbanization and the FDI and the revenue for the state comes from the cities. The biggest fear of the people was the loss of capital city, jobs and educational institutions.

In my opinion, Naidu did a good job initially supported by BJP, and later on irrespective of them, the piece that most people talk about,that he should move on, I think was probably best done by him. It was estimated that new state would be 16K chores deficit if split and CBN had been asking to give a fighting chance to the new state to bring it to a level playing field. This was promised in the parliament and to be fair some were done initially, but BJP decided that they would not honor the special status and provide special package, which was also not give properly - CBN put his weight behind the spl package, and lost some political mileage when that was also not given, and finally had to exit the NDA.

If anything, forget the politics, I think people of AP, and others I think owe it to CBN for handling the sensitive situation after bifurcation as people were very emotional, of course gained politically too.

Well I leave t at that, I can post enough data to show how the people of AP have been cheated, but to say that they did not vote for BJP or voted for Congress so they should suffer, is not right.


You can't leave data. Please post the data so that others will get to know.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 02 Apr 2019 11:47

A roundup of TN's overtly anti-Hindu political scene in the runup to 2019 elections as established by DMK-Congie sickular alliance of which Dravida Kazhagam & Veeramani / Thirumavalavan /Vaiko etc are key constituents .
"The Davinci Code" was banned in TN by Karunanidhi govt.
US embassy in Chennai was stone pelted for "Innocence of Muslims" documentary.

Veeramani, the chief of Dravidar Kalagam(parent organization of DMK) equates Krishna Bhagwan to rapists of Pollachi. Yet roaming free.

#AntiHinduDMK
https://twitter.com/arvinth_e/status/11 ... 1481893888
DMK's Parent Body DK Prez Veeramani abuses Hindu sentiments again.
This time mocks Madurai Meenakshi Amman & Kallazhagar's procession to River Vaigai!
Why the tolerance of Hindus taken for granted? Why is the Govt silent on such abuses?

When will this fellow be taken to task?
https://twitter.com/Ethirajans/status/1 ... 9085921280
Lord Krishna played with Gopika sthrees as a 5 years old kid, but Veeramani compared him with #Pollachi rapists.

Hence, we will never vote for #DMK.

Locals confront DMK candidate during campaign.

#DMKFails
https://twitter.com/Ethirajans/status/1 ... 1390542851
In Tamil Nadu, Mushrooming Ghettos Change Demography Of Old Thanjavur Region Dotted With Temples
by M R Subramani
Mar 24, 2019
....

The killing of Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) worker V Ramalingam near Kumbakonam in Tamil Nadu’s Thanjavur district on 6 February this year is a manifestation of the effects of changing demography in the Mayiladuthurai-Kumbakonam region in the state.
....
Cash distribution in Tamil Nadu is because of brahmins and brahmin Election Commissioner - Durai Murugan(Treasurer of DMK) after 15 Crores cash seized from his property
This is how brahmin bogey is used for anything and everything by DMK.

https://twitter.com/moneyballXI/status/ ... 4488611841
#Duraimurugan #DMKFails
DMK's ally Thirumavalavan who vowed to uproot Hinduism, abuses the birth of Lord Ayyappa!

""Hinduism believes that a relationship between two men can produce a baby, that is Ayyappa!""
May Lord Natraja bless him!
https://twitter.com/Ethirajans/status/1 ... 0555198464
This is how DK guys insult our god and incite violence by hurting religious sentiments.
Time @CMOTamilNadu acts and put these guys behind bars on Goondas act

https://twitter.com/rameshsethu/status/ ... 0370980865
Last edited by Lilo on 02 Apr 2019 19:39, edited 1 time in total.

Trikaal
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Trikaal » 02 Apr 2019 12:26

ramana wrote:
Trikaal wrote:Anyone know why we aren't conducting simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in J&K even though we are holding simultaneous elections in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim? What is the logic or design behind this move?



GOI doesn't want local politics to influence the LS elections in J&K six seats.

But we are doing that in other states! And I doubt J&K voters will vote differently be it local or national elections. Same issues will be voted on in J&K regardless of the level of elections.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 02 Apr 2019 12:30

twitter


Tune jo na kaha, main woh sunta raha
Khamakha bewajah khwaab bunta raha


Image

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Apr 2019 17:23

Liloji:
Many thanks! That new MDP metric is extremely useful. I am still deeply suspicious of the Miracle Since 2014, sorry. If this has happened it is the most inspiring thing to have happened since RamRajya or the era of the Gupta Empire (as romanticized in history books). But I have to ask why there are so many migrant laborers from Bihar and WB in Malloostan: Several rural areas of Malloostan are now Hindi-speaking: migrant laborers outnumber the old Malloos who are the only Malloos left there - with their own kids slaving in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Gelf, Yoo Ess or Mongolia.

Something does not compute. I am all for the wonderful scenarios seen here, but they seem a bit too optimistic.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 02 Apr 2019 18:45

Chandrababu Naidu Led Andhra Government’s Overall Performance Was ‘Poor, Underwhelming’: ADR Report







Apr 02 2019,


Chandrababu Naidu Led Andhra Government’s Overall Performance Was ‘Poor, Underwhelming’: ADR Report

In a major setback to Telugu Desam Party government (TDP), a report by ADR revealed that Andhra Pradesh state government scored below average in its performance, media outlets have claimed.

The survey reports that the government has neglected voter priorities and failed in providing employment, drinking water and farm infrastructure in both rural and urban areas.

On a scale of 5 in performance, Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), an election watchdog rated rural AP at 2.13 on the availability of water for agriculture, 1.99 on farm subsidy, 2.19 on power for the farm sector, 2.08 in providing employment opportunities and 2.12 in supplying drinking water.

The survey conducted between October 2018 and December 2018, also showed that better employment, drinking water and pollution are a top priority for Urban Voters also.

The Andhra government fared below average in urban areas in giving better employment opportunities (2.13), drinking water (1.91), water and air pollution (2.19), noise pollution (1.96) and traffic congestion (1.98).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 02 Apr 2019 18:54

2019 General Elections: The Fight for number 2



2019 General Elections: The Fight for number 2

Congress is not trying to win 2019 General Elections! It’s trying hard not to finish a distant 3rd behind Third Front! And hence it is targeting a specific niche Hindu vote along with Muslim and backward caste votes.

'Ajay.Sudame@ifrc.in' Ajay Sudame
02-04-2019

Are you perplexed by the fact that Congress is not in alliance in UP? Or that they will be fighting against TMC in Bengal? Or why it allows people like BK Hariprasad who claim that Pulwama attack was ‘Match Fixing’ between Modi and Pakistan? Or why someone like Divya Spandana is running party’s SM campaign? There is a reason to it.

Congress is not trying to win 2019 General Elections! It’s trying hard not to finish a distant 3rd behind Third Front! And hence it is targeting a specific niche Hindu vote along with Muslim and backward caste votes. Congress dreads the situation where it ends way behind a post-poll coalition of non-NDA regional parties (SP, BSP, TMC, TDP, AAP, etc). In other words, if BJP falls short of the halfway mark, Congress does not want to be caught in a situation where there is no option but to support a PM from ‘Third Front’. Instead of this it will prefer a BJP government!

Now the question is why will the Grand old party (GOP) allow BJP to walk over? Well, because it fears that in going for top spot their lies a huge risk of ending with too few seats. In cricketing parlance, it’s something like on a seaming wicket, a team targeting 300 in 50 overs, ends up scoring 175. Continuing with cricket analogy, Congress knows it’s not playing on Ferozshah Kotla against an Indian Attack of 80s or 90s but rather the current India bowling on Perth or MCG. And if that happens it will be left with no option but to support Mayawati or Mamata. (Remember Deve Gowda, Inder Kumar Gujral and Chandrashekhar Govts?).

To understand why Congress is fearful of the Third Front let us cut back to 1980s. In 1987, it was VP Singh, who when made Defence Minister started investigating Defence Deals, which brought the Bofors scandal out, leading to his expulsion. Post which, he went on to form Janata Dal, defeated Rajiv Gandhi and led a Government himself in December 1989. Till this time, barring the exception of 1977, Congress never clocked less than 40% vote and 200 seats. In 1989 elections it got 197 seats with a vote share of 39.53 %. Since then, it has been not able to reverse the slide. In seven elections in last 30 years, Congress won more than 200 seats only twice. And had been in opposition for 13 years. Quite a dismal record for a party which ruled India 36 years out of 39 till then.

But when Congress was in opposition, it was BJP which was ruling. Then why am I saying that it’s the Third Front which is Congress’ nemesis? Please appreciate the fact that, in Indian political scenario, BJP is the ideological opposite of Congress. And with burgeoning middle class support, its rise was just a question of time. But Third front parties are on the same side of ideological divide with Congress. Which means they are largely catering to the same market. Yet over the years, steadily they have grown at the cost of the Congress. With the rise of Mulayam, Mayawati and Lalu, Congress lost its vote bank of Muslims, Yadavs, and Dalits (MYD) in Hindi mainland and lost the game. Hence the fear.

Now if you look at the Congress attitude towards alliance building, from this viewpoint you will understand the reluctance. It wants to be to MYD voters what BJP was to upper caste Hindus when it was in opposition. Instead, this vote is split among itself and one, or in some states two regional players. In many states some of these voters are even voting BJP. So to protect and win back some of its lost vote, what can Congress do? It thinks Modi and the Hindutvawadis (also known as Bhakts) are the lot which have redefined the strategy of catering to Hindu RW votes. There was a time when Congress with its soft Hindu play was known as “Brahmano ki Party” (Party of Brahmins) in Hindi belt and used to get chunk of upper caste votes. Modi and Bhakts relentlessly raising the bar, had made it almost impossible for Congress to match BJP, when it comes to playing to Hindu sentiments. For the fear that it may further alienate its MYD vote bank.

For best part of first 50 years, since independence, Hindu middle class used to largely vote for Congress, which made it such a formidable force. But BJP and erstwhile Jan Sangh, worked with RSS and persisted with ‘Hindu Party’ image for decades together. And when it felt it had enough wind in its sail it launched Ramjanmabhumi movement. Coupling strident Hindutva with aggressive nationalism has helped BJP take away that Hindu vote from Congress. On other hand though Congress used to soft peddle Hindu issues and was seen as cynically opportunistic, leading to flight of conservative Hindus on one hand and MYD votes on other.

Realistically speaking, with BJP refusing to take the foot off the Hindutva peddle, Congress has no hopes of winning conservative Hindu votes back for a long time. But it fancies itself winning the MYD votes back as there is no competition at national level. Hence to please this typical anti-Hindutvawadi voters, it attacks Modi, aggressive nationalism, Indian Army and anything which will support Hindu revival.

So when Mani Shankar Aiyar derides Chaiwala, he wants Congress’ ‘That’ vote bank to see their commitment to the cause. The cause of keeping Hindu revival in check. Ditto when Shashi Throor says BJP is turning our country into Hindu Pakistan. Or CP Joshi blabbers that only Brahmins are entitled to discuss dos and don’ts in Hinduism. Or when Rahul Gandhi asks proof of Balakot strike. Or when Pawan Khera equates MODI to, Masood, Obama, Dawood and ISI.

Most of the people think (or posit) that Congress is being foolish and these utterances are blunders. This is not true. These are strategic abuses meant to appeal a specific cohort of voters. The dynasty knows two critical things. First just like 2014, Modi has taken a massive lead, again. Second forming alliance with Third Front parties is benefitting them more than Congress. Hence it is only going into tie-ups where it was completely vanquished in 2014 (Bihar and Telengana). Which means compared to last time, the only way is up.

The dynasty is just preserving itself for 2024. It’s hoping that by that time, the MVD vote may out of fatigue or just because of lack of national alternative, perform a ‘Gharwapsi’.

To reiterate the big point at the end, Congress is not winning 2019 elections. Rahul Gandhi and his handlers know this. It is important that, the voters who were going to vote for Congress in hope of seeing Modi’s back should also know it.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby negi » 02 Apr 2019 19:12

UlanBatori wrote:Liloji:
Many thanks! That new MDP metric is extremely useful. I am still deeply suspicious of the Miracle Since 2014, sorry. If this has happened it is the most inspiring thing to have happened since RamRajya or the era of the Gupta Empire (as romanticized in history books). But I have to ask why there are so many migrant laborers from Bihar and WB in Malloostan: Several rural areas of Malloostan are now Hindi-speaking: migrant laborers outnumber the old Malloos who are the only Malloos left there - with their own kids slaving in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Gelf, Yoo Ess or Mongolia.

Something does not compute. I am all for the wonderful scenarios seen here, but they seem a bit too optimistic.

UB ji on this particular topic I would beg to differ , we are too many in number the closest analogy I can give is climate change the kind of shit we have thrown into our atmosphere and oceans is humungous however the planet has not become inhabitable yet but none of us can deny the climate change is real it's slow but it's happening. There are things which have happened on ground in last 5 years whose impact on the guy at bottom of the pyramid will be better appreciated in next 5-10 years . I mean you guys have been around for a longer time and followed the political scene better but tell me this when was it last you saw a central government that did something for the 'poor' without putting an additional burden on the exchequer I mean let's take an example of LPG cylinder distribution ; two things have happened first many (even my retired father) have surrendered their LPG subsidy I believe there are lakhs if not crores who have done the same , secondly the subsidy in itself is no longer transferred via dealers/distributors it's a direct benefit transfer scheme so if subsidy is given it goes into account of person whose name connection is in, in my limited knowledge having followed gobmints from the day of PVN till date I have never seen any government think on these lines . The impact of thousands of crores saved and ability to serve more with same inventory is huge . Now even if I wear my cynical hat I can only argue that may be the distribution system is still broken and not everyone in need has received LPG connection however what cannot be ruled out is even then at least the loot of this money due to middlemen or ghost accounts have stopped.

Now I have a theory here which is in a huge system where the time elapsed between introducing a reform >enforcing it > effect on lowest node in pyramid is huge one can never make a difference in life of those who are at the bottom in a short time unless you resort to handing out freebies ; for making a sustainable impact where someone's living standard can be improved the only way is to fix the macro problems and hope that they will fuel growth i.e. invest in education , health and infrastructure > industries will mushroom > they will employ more > middle class will become upper middle class > poor will move to lower middle class etc . I think if this is the state cycle we want to achieve we will need at least 15-20 years of governance from someone who has a clear plan and most importantly fire in the belly to get shit done.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Apr 2019 21:13

These are all good, negiji. My fear is that the "averages" are computed without including the people who, well.... can't be counted because they are too "invisible". And these may number in the hundreds of millions.
But.. they WILL vote.
And this is where the NDA made its huge booboo in 2004: they depended on the hotshot Holy DOOs (copyright BRF) to do the "surveying" and "statistics" sitting in their caves in Bengaluru. And then the Baithak Log in Dilli had no clue how to interpret those gobbledygook color PPT charts except to say: Accha lagta hain.
Remember that last time NDA was so 404 that they sent detailed Talking Points and Procedural Instuctions to their ppl in Tamil Nadu, composed by these brilliant hot-shot EyeTee Patriots: written in Hindi. The poor TN BeeJayPees then had to take those to local CPI(M)/ Congi workers to get translated. :roll:

I have learned NEVER to understimate idiocy. And it grows exponentially with the sophistication and polish of the Background and the Border Lines and the Animation of PPT charts.

I have asked several people who have gone and seen rural UP, Andhra and other places in the very near past, and I keep doing that. I ask them: Is it really true that..... ? And they laugh as if I had asked them if they had just come from the Moon.
To paraphrase u no what:

O say can u c.. by the grimy fog
All these shanty huts under the flight path
All those kids in torn clothes?

All those women who look weary
As they cook in a smoky hut..
or walk with a heavy headload
with a naked brat in tow..

...

If the answer is "YES" to any of that, you are wrong. And the NDA is heading for a crash.
The recent words ring in the space between my ears, in response to direct question

My father's village, near Kanpur IIT - they have everything they need: power, water, connectivity.
But down the road, where the Dalits live... THEY HAVE NOTHING.


So with all respect to Dileepji and Liloji and yourself, I HOPE you are right, but I THINK and am FAIRLY SURE that you are wrong. And the difference is the Election, with RaGa/SoGa warming up.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2019 21:57

Trikaal wrote:
ramana wrote:

GOI doesn't want local politics to influence the LS elections in J&K six seats.

But we are doing that in other states! And I doubt J&K voters will vote differently be it local or national elections. Same issues will be voted on in J&K regardless of the level of elections.


That's you opinion.
I told you the reason.
I guess you know more than everybody.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 02 Apr 2019 22:04

UB You are being given facts.
You don't want to accept.
Overall people are better off than in 2014.
Except the crooks.

As for UP and Bihar, nearly 300 million people below poverty live there.
And the biggest challenge is to move them above that level.
And only Modi govt can be trusted to do that sysphian task.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby negi » 02 Apr 2019 22:35

UB sir hope and positivity can do great things , the state from where I studied everyone from 2001 up-to 2005/6 batch got computers from the government , interest free loans for furrin education (some of my friends did justice to it and got a PhD) and it was all done by one man Manohar Parrikar . Book banks were given to everyone whose parents made less than 2 lakh PA .

Your friends might be right , India is too vast and big a country but let me give you some more data points just go to Uttarakhand the road that goes to my in laws place was commissioned during BC Khanduri's time after that nothing happened in last 3-4 years in Dehradoon itself we have at least 4 new flyovers , 4 laning of Haridwar-Doon-Rishikesh is underway you should drive from Delhi to Doon , it used to take 7-8 hours even 2-3 years ago now it's around 5 hours . Of course no one can tell how much of this will translate into votes but then I have come to realisation that whatever one achieves is a function of not just hard work but also circumstances (some could call it fate/luck , alignment of variables that are outside of one's control yada yada) so if it's in India's destiny to continue on a forward path at current pace I think the current government will come back to power in 2019 , beyond this not much can be done or said.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 03 Apr 2019 00:13

negi wrote:Now I have a theory here which is in a huge system where the time elapsed between introducing a reform >enforcing it > effect on lowest node in pyramid is huge one can never make a difference in life of those who are at the bottom in a short time unless you resort to handing out freebies ; for making a sustainable impact where someone's living standard can be improved the only way is to fix the macro problems and hope that they will fuel growth i.e. invest in education , health and infrastructure > industries will mushroom > they will employ more > middle class will become upper middle class > poor will move to lower middle class etc . I think if this is the state cycle we want to achieve we will need at least 15-20 years of governance from someone who has a clear plan and most importantly fire in the belly to get shit done.

This is absolutely true, and not just for the subsidy and related schemes. The delay in realization of benefits is much worse for infrastructure improvement. The roads, ports, railtracks built today will give fillip to industry a few years down the line, while the Laloo Yadavs continue to ask "What will the poor do with roads as smooth as Hema Malini's cheeks?" This is what happened in NDA-1. The golden quad only impressed city dwellers, while UPA-1 reaped the delayed benefits. Congress realized that they didn't want to help the new government and so drove the economy into the ground.

To be sure, Modi admin has learnt from the NDA-1 debacle. They have invested in stuff that provides a more immediate benefit, Ujwala, DBT, gram-sadak. And more importantly, they have been able to actually implement it to a great extent. Whether that will translate into votes remains to be seen. BJP won UP in the aftermath of DeMo when everyone and his goat was screaming that DeMo will sink BJP there. After they won people pointed to Ujwala scheme. But that didn't seem to help them in MP, CG and Rajasthan in December. It may just be impossible to figure out what the voter wants. Every political party from BJP to Congress to SP/BSP has failed at figuring it out in recent times.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 03 Apr 2019 00:39

OK folks I would like you all to participate in a weekly poll.
What is your estimate for BJP and Congress and your confidence %
Eg.
- BJP will get xxx seats with yy% confidence.
Congress will get zz seats with aa% confidence.
Please up date your estimates weekly.
Thanks, for the participation.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 03 Apr 2019 01:07

60% confidence: BJP gets 220-250 seats, NDA gets 265-290 seats. Modi comes back as PM but with greater dependence on non-BJP allies than in his first term.

25% confidence: BJP gets under 220 seats and has to look for partners beyond NDA to form a (shaky) coalition government. Chance of D4 coup attempt.

10% confidence: BJP gets 250-300 seats on its own and NDA has a 300+ majority (repeat of 2014 essentially)
5% confidence: BJP gets over 300 seats on its own.

Congress, it is very hard to say. I have a strong gut feeling that Pappu is a complete paper tiger, and for all that he is being relentlessly projected by the ELM, most of India will reject INC because of him. He will pick up tiny pockets of support at best, leading to an INC score that is similar or worse than 2014. However, I cannot point to any data that substantiate this likelihood.

So let me say for now, 60% confidence that INC gets 30-70 seats, UPA gets 90-110 seats.

The real contest this time is between Modi and the regional power-brokers: MGB, Fourth Front, and semi-reluctant NDA partners. Do most Indian voters believe that a strong center has been (and will continue to be) to their benefit? Or do they feel as if local power centers have to be elevated as checks/balances against the central govt (for whatever reason, be it caste, regional identity, or otherwise). That is the big question mark and the major potential obstacle to a BJP sweep (300+ alone) vs. an NDA bare-minimum victory (~270 total).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 03 Apr 2019 02:12

My point is that the voter decides THAT DAY
a) whether to vote, and
b) for whom to vote.

So main effort from now until Election Din should be to focus on informing and converting as many voters as possible. It does not matter how much has been done in the past 4 years - or how bad the prior regime was - if the voter does not remember these things in the polling booth.

Please go out and talk to an Unbeliever (in the Modi Miracle) and convert that person or at least those who hear you trying to convert them. At least get some doubt into their minds about their firm belief in LDF, RaGa etc.

UBCN as always will come out with a 100% accurate prediction - on the heels of the vote count.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Trikaal » 03 Apr 2019 02:38

ramana wrote:
Trikaal wrote:But we are doing that in other states! And I doubt J&K voters will vote differently be it local or national elections. Same issues will be voted on in J&K regardless of the level of elections.


That's you opinion.
I told you the reason.
I guess you know more than everybody.


So you are saying that local politics will affect LS elections in J&K but not in other states that are having joint elections. That doesn't make any sense to me, and yes this part is my opinion. Also, EC decides whether election should be conducted or not, not the government. I don't know more than everybody hence I asked in this thread.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ankit Desai » 03 Apr 2019 04:43

Link to register as a NRI. I am sure that the idea/proposal was rejected at some level but the link is there on https://eci.gov.in/.

Look for "Enroll As A NRI Voter".

-Ankit

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 03 Apr 2019 05:01

UBCN was asking about alliances
Who all are in:
1) NDA
2) UPA
3) MGB
4) Fourth Front
5) any other?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 03 Apr 2019 05:06

This is for MGB (from wiki):

Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 03 Apr 2019 05:10

^^Some of the above were also part of UPA (like JD(S), DMK, JMM etc.) earlier.

Lot of these are changu-mangu parties. The biggest threats are AITC, SP and BSP. I won't count TDP as a threat since BJP has little hopes in Andhra anyway. Wildcard is DMK. They are at 0 now but the nature of TN politics means they can change from 0 to clean sweep very easily. But again, BJP has no hopes in TN, unless they expect ADMK to join NDA after the polls (unlikely).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 03 Apr 2019 05:41

Rudradev wrote:60% confidence: BJP gets 220-250 seats, NDA gets 265-290 seats. Modi comes back as PM but with greater dependence on non-BJP allies than in his first term.

25% confidence: BJP gets under 220 seats and has to look for partners beyond NDA to form a (shaky) coalition government. Chance of D4 coup attempt.

10% confidence: BJP gets 250-300 seats on its own and NDA has a 300+ majority (repeat of 2014 essentially)
5% confidence: BJP gets over 300 seats on its own.

Congress, it is very hard to say. I have a strong gut feeling that Pappu is a complete paper tiger, and for all that he is being relentlessly projected by the ELM, most of India will reject INC because of him. He will pick up tiny pockets of support at best, leading to an INC score that is similar or worse than 2014. However, I cannot point to any data that substantiate this likelihood.

So let me say for now, 60% confidence that INC gets 30-70 seats, UPA gets 90-110 seats.

The real contest this time is between Modi and the regional power-brokers: MGB, Fourth Front, and semi-reluctant NDA partners. Do most Indian voters believe that a strong center has been (and will continue to be) to their benefit? Or do they feel as if local power centers have to be elevated as checks/balances against the central govt (for whatever reason, be it caste, regional identity, or otherwise). That is the big question mark and the major potential obstacle to a BJP sweep (300+ alone) vs. an NDA bare-minimum victory (~270 total).



In RJ and MP state MLA elections, INC margin of victory in many districts were small. In MP, if BJP had 5000 more votes around the Jabalpur area, they would have had a majority by preventing the flipping of seats. The NDA and BJP has to get the vote out and get the middle class to vote no matter what.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 03 Apr 2019 07:01

FWIW.

Dr. Praveen Patil on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1113088853634580480

Both Odisha & West Bengal are throwing up such hard-to-believe numbers for BJP that our entire Eastern team is refusing to accept them at face value; Uttar Pradesh used to throw up such incredible numbers during 2014 & 2017.
#WhatsHappeningInTheEast?


Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 03 Apr 2019 07:57

Mort Walker wrote:In RJ and MP state MLA elections, INC margin of victory in many districts were small. In MP, if BJP had 5000 more votes around the Jabalpur area, they would have had a majority by preventing the flipping of seats. The NDA and BJP has to get the vote out and get the middle class to vote no matter what.


This is the important thing: somehow reach the middle class. WhatsApp posts seem to make it to most ppl, who don't use computers/ email.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rupesh » 03 Apr 2019 09:01

Trikaal wrote:
ramana wrote:
That's you opinion.
I told you the reason.
I guess you know more than everybody.


So you are saying that local politics will affect LS elections in J&K but not in other states that are having joint elections. That doesn't make any sense to me, and yes this part is my opinion. Also, EC decides whether election should be conducted or not, not the government. I don't know more than everybody hence I asked in this thread.


Its not local politics. Unlike other states, candidates in J&K have to be provided round the clock security. With National elections some security personnel deployed in J&K have been redeployed in other states and with a hot border currently, there is not enough personal to provide security to individual candidates. Elections will be held before Amaranth Yatra begins.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kittoo » 03 Apr 2019 10:22

vimal wrote:FWIW.

Dr. Praveen Patil on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1113088853634580480

Both Odisha & West Bengal are throwing up such hard-to-believe numbers for BJP that our entire Eastern team is refusing to accept them at face value; Uttar Pradesh used to throw up such incredible numbers during 2014 & 2017.
#WhatsHappeningInTheEast?


Image


My faith is shaken in Praveen Patil after recent state elections. Dont get me wrong, he is definitely a loyal soldier of BJP, but that bias creeps ups into his analysis too and results in getting hopes up where we shouldn't.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 03 Apr 2019 10:37

Kittoo I second you.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 03 Apr 2019 10:41


Lilo
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 03 Apr 2019 11:18

x-post

Eligible rural habitations connected with "all weather" roads was a deplorable 55% after 65 years of Independence in 2014.
In 5 yrs of NaMo sarkar,95% of targeted 1.78 Lakh habitations were connected by #PMGSY,Revolutionizing rural access for Education,Health & Farm sector.

Image


Image


PMGSY well on its way to achieve March 2019 target

...intensified Monitoring has impacted Quality grading positively; 13.98% completed roads were graded as unsatisfactory in 2013-14, the quality of roads has improved substantially, in 2017-18 with 7.46% completed roads graded as unsatisfactory. Rectifications are carried on these roads after the inspections to remove all inconsistencies.

Transparency

As a measure of Transparency and Accountability, the scheme has put in place a Citizen Feedback system through the MeriSadak App. In addition to Hindi and English, the App is available in 10 regional languages also. This provides a direct interface with the citizens and this G2C platform enables citizens to provide real time feedback on the implementation of the PMGSY programme. Out of 25,414, complaints/feedback related to PMGSY, final replies have been sent in 24,791(97%) cases.

New Technology; green roads

Use of non-conventional, locally available construction materials (waste plastic, cold mix, fly ash, jute and coir geo-textiles, iron and copper slag, cell filled concrete, paneled cement concrete etc.) and "Green Technologies" have been encouraged for climate resilient roads in PMGSY.
.....

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 03 Apr 2019 11:22

getting false documents for foreigners seems to be institutionalized in mamta begum's bengal.


MHA issues notice to Mamata Banerjee’s nephew’s wife for ‘false representation’ and not revealing her Thai citizenship



MHA issues notice to Mamata Banerjee’s nephew’s wife for ‘false representation’ and not revealing her Thai citizenship

As per reports, Abhishek Banerjee's lawyer, Sanjay Basu at first said that they will respond within the stipulated time, but minutes later denied confirming the receipt of the letter claiming he had not seen the show cause notice.

OPINDIA STAFF
APRIL 3, 2019

The Ministry of Home Affairs has issued a show cause notice to TMC MP and Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee’s wife, Rujira Naroola, for obtaining the OCI (Overseas Citizens of India) and PAN (Permanent Account Number) by allegedly making false representation and concealing her Thai citizenship.

As per the reports, in the notice, the MHA has mentioned that on November 14, 2009, Rujira Naroola applied for a PAN by filing the form 49A without disclosing that her status as a Thai national holding the OCI card. Naroola would have to file form 49AA and obtain the PAN by declaring she is a foreigner holding the OCI card. Instead, she obtained one as an Indian national. Thus, owing to the discrepancies, Naroola’s OCI card is liable to be cancelled in the interest of general public.

The MHA notice also sought a reply within 15 days, failing which an ‘appropriate decision’ will be taken on the basis of the merit available on record with the central government.

As per DNA, Abhishek Banerjee’s lawyer, Sanjay Basu at first said that they will respond within the stipulated time, but minutes later denied confirming the receipt of the letter claiming he had not seen the show cause notice.

Last week we had reported how the West Bengal Police had reportedly shielded Abhishek Banerjee’s wife as she was caught with 2 kg gold at Kolkata airport.

As per the report, the lady flew in on a Thai Airways flight from Bangkok and while passing through normal screening, was found carrying two kilos of gold.

When customs officials questioned her about the gold, which was approximately valued at Rs 68 lakh, she reportedly called up her husband Abhishek Banerjee, who is Lok Sabha MP from Diamond Harbour. Soon, several senior Kolkata Police officers reached the airport and tried to allegedly whisk her away.


Image


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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 03 Apr 2019 11:50

While some lying presstitutes have major issues with movies like The Tashkent Files directed by Vivek Agnihotri and Anupam Kher starrer The Accidental Prime Minister, being released before the 2019 elections, there is not a single mention against the similarly timed release of the roler propaganda movie on graham staines, The Least of These: The Graham Staines Story, about the hardcore australian ej who illegally converted poor Hindu's in India as a matter of divine right.

It's the same old eternal sauce and the goose & gander story.

TUM KARO TOH CHAMATKAR, HUM KARE TOH BALATKAR!!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 03 Apr 2019 19:36

Kanchan Gupta
‏Verified account @KanchanGupta
2h2 hours ago

Unprecedented turnout for Modi rallies in Siliguri and Kolkata. I could be wrong, but no other BJP rally ever has seen such massive turnout plus enthusiastic crowds. Calcutta surprised more than Siliguri. Something is happening. #LoksabhaElections2019

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 03 Apr 2019 20:18

Where else can so many Bangladeshis see the Indian PM?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby negi » 03 Apr 2019 20:29

Rahul M wrote:Kanchan Gupta
‏Verified account @KanchanGupta
2h2 hours ago

Unprecedented turnout for Modi rallies in Siliguri and Kolkata. I could be wrong, but no other BJP rally ever has seen such massive turnout plus enthusiastic crowds. Calcutta surprised more than Siliguri. Something is happening. #LoksabhaElections2019

Tui shala bheeshon optimist .


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