2019 General Elections News and Discussion

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 09 Apr 2019 01:14

ramana wrote:Lilo, AP and TG politics is irrelevant in this election. Either way they vote it doesn't matter.
First time in 70 years, Telugus have become irrelevant and joined the dregs.

Don't waste time.

I hope what you said comes true, as any less than expected result can propel the AP/TG regionals into king maker roles and we may see a heavily constrained version of Modi at the helm.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 09 Apr 2019 01:16

Picklu wrote: Not sure about this.

Didi herself develops quite a few catchy slogans that connects with people of lower strata ... obviously not to the level of "janaganer koti koti, kheye gelo hawai chati" but more atuned to her support base.

And neither TMC nor BJP still comes to the level of Left, the recent Riya Maity as an example.

dada, there's a huge qualitative difference between a catchy slogan and the kind of thing I am talking about.

riya maity as in this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9K-60mDxDs ?

this is hardly effective, just regular sloganeering of the type 'aamra sobai SFI, baki sobai BLEEP bhai'.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 09 Apr 2019 01:21

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Did the 2014 Manifesto specifically mention Art. 370?
UBji- The 2014 Manifesto for BJP did not explicitly mention Article 370. J&K was discussed as:
J&K, was, is and shall remain an integral part of the Union of India. Facilitate the return of Kashmiri Pandits and rights of POK refugees
So yes, compared to 2014, this time around the BJP is making a more explicit claim.

And the new manifesto speaks of the commitment to abrogating Article 370 which was there since the Jan Sangh times. Similarly the commitment to annulling Article 35A is mentioned. Though no timelines are committed.

The return of pandits looks significant and understandable, but what is the significance of "rights of POK refugees" ?

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 09 Apr 2019 01:34

Karan M wrote:
siddhu wrote:
I can already see you people ganging up on SI s.
Branding CBN anti-National and anti hindu and portraying Jagan as pro hindu, who was about to sell 7 hills of Tirupati.
If modi is so pro hindu what was he doing when Kerela govt allowed women in Sabri? Why no Ram Mandir till now?
What about BJP making an alliance with anti national patries in J&K & NE in 2014?
'You people" - do you even know who on this forum is SI or NI? I repeat, stop being silly or posting divisive crap and this NI vs SI crap.

My generation has seen enough bloodshed in the name of regionalism propped up by India's external adversaries and we have no patience for dunces repeating those mistakes by spreading this toxic propaganda.

Rest you can vote, follow, whoever it is that you want, but keep any toxic caste, regionally divisive, seditious views etc off of the forum.

Thanks.

Well said Karan ji.. these frog-in-the-well minded regionalists will never "get it" on the issue of national interests.. if it matters, I am an Andhrite who grew up both in AP & TG states - what do you make of it ??

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 09 Apr 2019 01:43

kashmiri cops, displaced pandits etc should be allocated "strategic" plots as compensation for lost assets.
long term leases can make them in to a source of income.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Apr 2019 02:02

Some posters on BRF are Namo Bhakts and Hindutvavadis as long TDP is not in the picture. Once TDP is in the picture, Namo, BJP, Hindus or India does not matter.
Wonder why this unflinching loyalty to TDP?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Apr 2019 02:05

"Rights of POK refugees": Hmm! Very interesting language. THAT is going to be one heck of a promise to keep.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 09 Apr 2019 02:07

minority appeasement and Sops cannot be a game left to regional third front parties. BJP and allies need to get into this and redefine things on their own terms, development vs temprary SOPs.

Can the RSS do such outreach?

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 09 Apr 2019 02:08

hanumadu wrote:Some posters on BRF are Namo Bhakts and Hindutvavadis as long TDP is not in the picture. Once TDP is in the picture, Namo, BJP, Hindus or India does not matter.
Wonder why this unflinching loyalty to TDP?

I know of many like this - daddy got a healthy cut for all infra work, so they sing TDP songs after their bhajans are done

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 09 Apr 2019 02:27

UlanBatori wrote:"Rights of POK refugees": Hmm! Very interesting language. THAT is going to be one heck of a promise to keep.

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/jammu-an ... 12632.html

there may be other more recent cases?

kit · Post by **kit** » 09 Apr 2019 02:29

ramana wrote:Fifty % of CPM and Congress are expected to vote BJP at a macro level.
Right now TMC and BJP are at 37% vote-share.
For mciro level its seat by seat.
As for seat by seat its Amit Shah concern and he is giving sleepless night to #Jihadidi so much so she is chanting Durga Ahstakam.
In case people forgot, #Jihadidi had personally threatened Modi with a bamboo stick..

Boss i would be more than happy to see Modi win by a landslide !! I want the BJP to win at least one seat from kerala as well..

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 09 Apr 2019 02:50

Raveen wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Some posters on BRF are Namo Bhakts and Hindutvavadis as long TDP is not in the picture. Once TDP is in the picture, Namo, BJP, Hindus or India does not matter.
Wonder why this unflinching loyalty to TDP?
I know of many like this - daddy got a healthy cut for all infra work, so they sing TDP songs after their bhajans are done

It is poor understanding of politics and political ideologies of parties and people. Such transactional loyalties are hardly long-term.
Bhakt mode blinds you to multiple identities and loyalties which can be normal.

Some of regions have strong local ideologies which unfortunately misconstrued as anti-national as Advani said due to cataracted Bhakti. Keep open mind and analyze from all political angles as long as they don't go to enemy/foreign countries/people to work against India or Hindus. Doing power politics and hard-bargaining to get lion share for their region is NOT anti-nationalism.

khatvaanga · Post by **khatvaanga** » 09 Apr 2019 02:56

There is a strong undercurrent for BJP in TG and some parts of AP. Having said that, I dont see BJP winning more than 3/42 [combined seats], that too by a miracle. WB+OD+NE could be the surprise package of this election.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 Apr 2019 03:15

ShyamSP wrote:
Raveen wrote: I know of many like this - daddy got a healthy cut for all infra work, so they sing TDP songs after their bhajans are done
It is poor understanding of politics and political ideologies of parties and people. Such transactional loyalties are hardly long-term.
Bhakt mode blinds you to multiple identities and loyalties which can be normal.

Some of regions have strong local ideologies which unfortunately misconstrued as anti-national as Advani said due to cataracted Bhakti. Keep open mind and analyze from all political angles as long as they don't go to enemy/foreign countries/people to work against India or Hindus. Doing power politics and hard-bargaining to get lion share for their region is NOT anti-nationalism.

While having strong local feeling is not anti-nationalism, this is what disappointed me in most friends among AP folks:

1. No national perspective. Folks from TG/KA may support local parties but still talk positively of Modi's work and might even vote in many numbers.
2. started abusing, lies, conspiracy theories about Modi/Shah which is common among all telugu folks.
3. even during recent attacks, there is not even anger on Pakistan. The only thought for many of them is will this help Modi and many started discounting India and supporting Imran
4. Majority are not for hard-bargaining. They only care about real estate/lands and caste
5. Some are just anti-DeMo because many run loan shark businesses with cash
6. In spite of all the numbers of nearly 1.3 lakh core in last 3 years from center, no one even goes back re-examine their heads.
7. Many spread lies on banks, IBC, Gujrati, south vs north and not even iota of sympathy on poor/lower class help Modi is giving
8. I would like to see Naidu because of my strong anti-jagan attitude but I won't shed a tear for that low life. No respect for this man anymore.
9. Think about it - We produced some of the greatest freedom fighters and patriots. In our narrow thinking, we are prostrating in front of one or two families: corrupt and crooked families

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Apr 2019 03:57

For too long 3 or 4 castes in AP/TG have dominated the politics. Why can't other castes come together against them instead of flocking to one of those parties. They don't even need to create a new platform. They already have a caste agnostic platform in BJP ready.

Edited: Leaked 'hot mic' video of CBN and media owner RK. It was leaked by Sakshi, so probably fake and edited.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 09 Apr 2019 03:57

khatvaanga wrote:There is a strong undercurrent for BJP in TG and some parts of AP. Having said that, I dont see BJP winning more than 3/42 [combined seats], that too by a miracle. WB+OD+NE could be the surprise package of this election.

I think the 3 seats you mention are - Secunderabad, Mahboobnagar & Nizamabad in TG ? If there are more, I would be surprised - please share. My take based on what I saw:

Secunderabad - Kishan Reddy - BJP's incumbent seat. Based on surveys I've seen, educated & middle classes are with BJP, Labor is mostly TRS. KR is well liked by locals.. depends on relative turnout of educated vs labor in this constituency. Less than 50% chance of winning I think.

Mahboobnagar - DK Aruna - Best bet of BJP, popular, former congress leader who left due to internal squabbles. Modi rally was well attended, her family has good backing. Better odds than Sec'bad and wouldnt be surprised if she wins. She has core BJP voters & even disenchanted congress voters supporting her.

Nizamabad - D Aravind - young energetic leader fighting against KCR's daughter, Kavitha.. he spent 2 yrs grooming this constituency and has good rapport with farmers, also good ground network.. local turmeric farmers have disenchantment with Kavitha. He has good backing among BCs & poor, but this constituency has sizable Muslim population who could enmasse "tactically" vote for KCR's daughter. This is prestige seat for KCR & so, less than 50% chance of winning, given the high stakes game.

Others Marginal:
Karimnagar - Bandi Sanjay - hindutva politician running for parliament, had verbal duels w/ MIM & TRS in the past. He narrowly lost Karimnagar MLA seat. May not win, but pulling in >20% of vote will be a good moral victory for him.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Apr 2019 04:13

This is the image of the money IT seized in TG. Is it 500 or 200 Re notes?
What happened to the 2000 Re bills? I didn't see them when IT raided DMK in TN or Congress in MP. Are they being absorbed by the banks? Is this sign of DeMo of Rs 2000.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 09 Apr 2019 04:38

Karan M wrote:Is there a link for this? I hope its not your wishlist, which is what it looks like, because it sounds too good (and expensive!) to be true for any political party. I hope this is the real NDA manifesto otherwise I will be throwing eggs at you for raising my hopes like crazy and dashing them Add rotten cabbage and tomatoes as well.

Katare wrote:NDA manifesto - National security

It is not the real manifesto

. First of all I don't think there is any "NDA" manifesto. Only a BJP manifesto exists. And Katare saar's wishlist is not included in it.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 Apr 2019 05:33

Rotten eggs, I swear!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 Apr 2019 06:25

hanumadu wrote:For too long 3 or 4 castes in AP/TG have dominated the politics. Why can't other castes come together against them instead of flocking to one of those parties. They don't even need to create a new platform. They already have a caste agnostic platform in BJP ready.

Edited: Leaked 'hot mic' video of CBN and media owner RK. It was leaked by Sakshi, so probably fake and edited.

Money power and media manipulation. The others simply are chasing. BJP has to do some social re-engineering now that CON party is dead.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 Apr 2019 06:45

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2019 07:02

Kit In Kerala, Farrago master is in jepoardy. He has been in temperate with his fiction causing friction. His swipe at Nair women is not sitting well.

https://twitter.com/shilpamdas/status/1 ... 86368?s=19

I hope he loses. Last time he won by 19k votes.
Any of our Kerala members should introspect on his moral compass.
We banned folks for saying similar stuff in past.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2019 07:04

Hanumadu, Please dont duscuss Telugu states politics. They are not relevant to national level this time.
BTW Satta markets say 240-260 for BJP this week as we enter polls.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2019 07:20

https://twitter.com/arvind_barmer/statu ... 96963?s=19

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 09 Apr 2019 07:48

How are tribal districts doing in various parts of India. Looks like there is some tribal discontent across India against NDA. Even Vidarbha has low turnout to DF's meetings.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Apr 2019 08:18

ramana wrote:Hanumadu, Please dont duscuss Telugu states politics. They are not relevant to national level this time.
BTW Satta markets say 240-260 for BJP this week as we enter polls.

Ok. Sorry. I saw others discussing it, so thought it was ok.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Apr 2019 08:20

Here is a survey by Mathrubhumi for 19/20 seats in Kerala [For some strange reason, they have not given the Kottayam survey].

https://www.mathrubhumi.com/election/20 ... -1.3712658

According to this survey, BJP is leading in Thiruvananthapuram by 8%vote, getting 40% of the vote overall, and it is a dead heat in Pathanamthitta, where Congress has 32% vote share and BJP 31%. If BJP pushes ahead in the next few weeks [and I don't see why they cannot], BJP can net 2 seats in Kerala.

Apart from these two, BJP is putting in a decent performance in Palakkad and, I suspect, Thrissur [this survey was done before Suresh Gopi's candidature was announced, so take that 17% in the survey with a heavy pinch of salt]. Finally, I think BJP will put in a creditable performance in Kottayam, Kasaragod, and Attingal, despite Kottayam figures not being available in the survey and the Attingal showing only 10% for BJP [which, I think is a gross underestimate]. It won't surprise me to see BJP netting 1-2 seats and coming second in another 2-3.

However, Alphons is shown as getting only 15% of the vote in Ernakulam, which, for a minister, is not particularly good.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 09 Apr 2019 08:22

Satta markets have mostly been accurate and better strike rate than opinion/exit polls the only case in recent past where everyone got it horribly wrong was CG assembly elections

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 09 Apr 2019 08:34

Shanmukh wrote:Here is a survey by Mathrubhumi for 19/20 seats in Kerala [For some strange reason, they have not given the Kottayam survey].

https://www.mathrubhumi.com/election/20 ... -1.3712658

According to this survey, BJP is leading in Thiruvananthapuram by 8%vote, getting 40% of the vote overall, and it is a dead heat in Pathanamthitta, where Congress has 32% vote share and BJP 31%. If BJP pushes ahead in the next few weeks [and I don't see why they cannot], BJP can net 2 seats in Kerala.

Apart from these two, BJP is putting in a decent performance in Palakkad and, I suspect, Thrissur [this survey was done before Suresh Gopi's candidature was announced, so take that 17% in the survey with a heavy pinch of salt]. Finally, I think BJP will put in a creditable performance in Kottayam, Kasaragod, and Attingal, despite Kottayam figures not being available in the survey and the Attingal showing only 10% for BJP [which, I think is a gross underestimate]. It won't surprise me to see BJP netting 1-2 seats and coming second in another 2-3.

However, Alphons is shown as getting only 15% of the vote in Ernakulam, which, for a minister, is not particularly good.

How is Waynad? will there be hindu polarization and non-hindus split?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Apr 2019 08:41

Muppalla wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:Here is a survey by Mathrubhumi for 19/20 seats in Kerala [For some strange reason, they have not given the Kottayam survey].

https://www.mathrubhumi.com/election/20 ... -1.3712658

According to this survey, BJP is leading in Thiruvananthapuram by 8%vote, getting 40% of the vote overall, and it is a dead heat in Pathanamthitta, where Congress has 32% vote share and BJP 31%. If BJP pushes ahead in the next few weeks [and I don't see why they cannot], BJP can net 2 seats in Kerala.

Apart from these two, BJP is putting in a decent performance in Palakkad and, I suspect, Thrissur [this survey was done before Suresh Gopi's candidature was announced, so take that 17% in the survey with a heavy pinch of salt]. Finally, I think BJP will put in a creditable performance in Kottayam, Kasaragod, and Attingal, despite Kottayam figures not being available in the survey and the Attingal showing only 10% for BJP [which, I think is a gross underestimate]. It won't surprise me to see BJP netting 1-2 seats and coming second in another 2-3.

However, Alphons is shown as getting only 15% of the vote in Ernakulam, which, for a minister, is not particularly good.
How is Waynad? will there be hindu polarization and non-hindus split?

Wayanad is given as 42% for Congress, 34% for Left and 13% for NDA by the survey. So, from the looks of it, no particular polarisation. Anyway, neither BJP, nor BDJS has any base here, and I don't think BJP+ will cross 15% in any case.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 09 Apr 2019 08:55

Muppalla, Wayanad is considered a safe seat of Congress. The UDF coalition partner Muslim League is a dominant force in influential pockets, has a significant settler/planter-christian community that migrated from central Kerala and the rest is adivasi. The NDA candidate is a princeling of a not-so-admired liquor baron who is also notional head of ezhava community's SNDP political wing. The princeling has very poor reputation for being a thuggish individual with his own goon-squad, even among his own community. So the polarization is not visible

Should have been a Smriti Irani type brawler, to make things more exciting

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Apr 2019 09:24

^^BJP should cross vote for the LDF candidate.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2019 09:56

Farrago in trouble?

https://twitter.com/Pradip_K_Varma/stat ... 69792?s=19

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 09 Apr 2019 10:41

I think NDA2 made the same mistakes as NDA1, trusting the development statistics more than the important parameters of livelihood and the result would be to some extent similar to "India Shining".

For a country like India, the collection of statistics is totally dependent on Gov machinery and there is a huge scope of presenting the wrong picture. And what the govt machinery can do, even in all genuine honesty, within a particular time frame has serious limitations. Add to that the loyalty of many parts of the machinery to the previous regime and it is truely an uphill task.

One of my friends, working for a big 4 consultancy in India and involved in policy formulation and implementation audit of a BJP ruled state govt, gave an example of toilet construction in girls school. On paper it is complete 100%. But what the statistics hide are below:

1. A large number do not have a regular maintenance/cleaning plan/budget and hence remains hellishly dirty and left unused. [Girls, just like other folks of life, prefers to go to nature than clean the toilet themselves. This aspect is slowly changing though, ironically, thanks to the prevailing bad law and order situation but none is happy as there is a social stigma attached to it]
2. A large number do not even have water connection. So cleaning is a herculean task. Same for electricity connection for light etc. And these are not in the measurement KPI.
3. The design of the toilets in many cases do not have roof and hence unusable during rainy seasons. Worse many don't even have doors for various reasons.

It is not like babus are not aware of this and there is a genuine desire to remedy this at every level by tracking the actual usage of all the govt schemes but there are so many things to do and the timeframe is truely less

Similar is the Ujala scheme of free gas connection. The current policy is that the cylinder cost has to be paid by the consumer first and then it gets reimbursed. The initial payment deters the full impact of the scheme. Again, it is slowly changing but will take time to bring the poor illiterate alcohol and satta addicted folks to change their way of life.

It is not like the topmost part of the govt is not aware; they are. But they also have a limitation on how much they can do and unfortunately they can not tell all these to common public beyond a point; they are truly riding a tiger here.

I think what NaMo told the ABP journalist actually came out of frustration. Frustration of trying his best while everyone else is playing dirty.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 09 Apr 2019 10:48

ramana wrote:Hanumadu, Please dont duscuss Telugu states politics. They are not relevant to national level this time.
BTW Satta markets say 240-260 for BJP this week as we enter polls.

I think there's a bump of 10 to 20 seats in few weeks. Really hope BJP makes it on its own. We don't need any ally holding NM for ransom.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 09 Apr 2019 11:00

In India, all the electioneering, cast calculations and polarization can take a party to improve their bottom-line but to win, in most cases they need to get a larger share of floating voters.

The floating voters are won and lost on "state of mind". NDA1 lost as the "state of mind" was of "dissatisfaction". NDA2 won because of "hope".

Right now, there is again a wave of dissatisfaction that is very much apparent outside the core support base of BJP.
1. Telugus on special status
2. Bongs on NRC and the general status of state BJP and the blatant dishonesty (Mukul Roy was scam tainted but then he joined BJP, so is Sankudev Ponda, Nishith Pramanik and so many)
3. NE on citizenship amendment bill
4. Traders on GST, demo as well as e-com
5. Veterans on improper implementation of OROP and currently NFU
6. SC/STs on supposed dilution of SC/ST act and torture by upper cast
7. Tribals on not getting bigger share of mining etc in their area

I don't know what is the solution but as a BJP supporter, what is concerning is the inability of BJP/RSS to effectively counter these. Outside twitter and facebook, i do not see much ground level work and I think that is quite evident on the campaign trail

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 09 Apr 2019 11:19

Picklu wrote:I think NDA2 made the same mistakes as NDA1, trusting the development statistics more than the important parameters of livelihood and the result would be to some extent similar to "India Shining".

It is not like the topmost part of the govt is not aware; they are. But they also have a limitation on how much they can do and unfortunately they can not tell all these to common public beyond a point; they are truly riding a tiger here.

I think what NaMo told the ABP journalist actually came out of frustration. Frustration of trying his best while everyone else is playing dirty.

Thanks Picklu for the enlightening post. I agree with a lot of things you are saying here and hope that NaMo will win again based on his Herculean effort to cleanse the system and his track record of implementation. However, the scorched earth policy of Congress makes it impossible for anyone to plant a seed of good governance. Keeping people poor, illiterate and desperate has it's use after all. I'm slowly losing hope in the people of Bharat. Civilization has been crushed to a point that it has no hope making a return to it's glory except in twitter and blogs.

Crossing my fingers

.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 09 Apr 2019 11:29

There is also a payment crisis going on; there is a lid on the news but things are coming up piece meal

1. IAF not paying HAL is one indication
2. BSNL and few other PSUs didn't get salary on time; contract employees haven't been paid for months.
3. In many BJP states, contractors have not paid for multiple quarters now, all payments have been stopped; in some cases from the beginning of the financial year itself.

All adding to the overall gloom about "no jobs", "farmers distress" etc etc

Really surprising to see the relative inaction from RSS front. Their base actually enlarged based on 2014 poll result. They reached in many places where it was earlier unthinkable. However, in this round, they seem to be bothered only in candidate selection and nothing else!!!!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2019 11:31

Generally, delivering infrastructure is the hardest part of delivering public goods and services. This is especially hard where the infrastructure in question is something that needs maintenance and upkeep several times a day (toilets) . Or, something that requires regular replenishment (LPG cylinders). In comparison, roads and electricity infrastructure is easier to deliver. DBT and banking for all, similarly doable . But infrastructure with high basic maintenance requirement ? That takes ownership by the users to successfully deliver . Govt can not deploy a civil services cadre tasked with cleaning toilets or making people stick to LPG instead of firewood .

Both these fundamentally reflect people’s behavior - care for public good and public services remains weak . Looking for a workable implementation within one 5 year cycle is premature IMHO . Public education takes time and people generally do not like being told what they should do, especially when it’s a chore .

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 09 Apr 2019 11:31

Picklu saar, what's the point of posting all this 2 days before elections? What are you trying to achieve?