2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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OmkarC
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 12 Apr 2019 01:40

I'm now seeing reports contradicting Dr. PP's reports from a city-based local Journalist, mostly unbiased (albeit BJP sympathetic) - Apparently ground reports indicate TRS losing 4-5 seats of the 16. Both INC & BJP are claiming benefit. He is implying BJP to benefit in at least a couple.

Note that voting has gone on very calmly in TG - not much money changed hands, turn out has been quite low as well.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 12 Apr 2019 01:43

AP has unfortunately joined the ranks of Kerala and WB as the state where the options are between bad and worse. Jagan as we know is a not-so-closeted EJ. While CBN has turned around and joined the thugs of Mahathugbandhan. Both BJP and Congress are also-rans in the state. Even the most optimistic predictions don't go beyond a very few seats for either of them.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby SwamyG » 12 Apr 2019 01:47

After Day one, my prediction is BJP 220+

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 12 Apr 2019 01:50

Muslim percentage is down because women were prevented from voting since several of them wanted to vote for NDA due to TT... some CT on twitter

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 12 Apr 2019 01:55

vijayk wrote:सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI


@savvyasaachi
3h3 hours ago
More
AP

Jagan ahead in both assembly and Loksabha

TL

TRS all the way


General equation for national surveys is last time TDP+BJP+Janasena(JS) competed against YCP and now BJP and JS are separate so YCP wins.

YCP is strong is Nellore, Kadapa, Parts of Chittoor, Prakasam, Kurnool, Vijayanagaram. They haven't improved any thing further. TDP might lose 1-2 seats in their stronghold districts such as Ananthapur, Krishna, Visakapatnam, and E&G Godavari districts, as they peaked in 2014. Even with (1-2x10 districts) +15 seats to YCP, it still can't make it to break majority. (Among 3 of my native MLA constituencies, 2 belong to YCP and 1 is tight). On the flip side, TDP is expected to grab 1-3 seats each in Nellore, Kadapa, Chittoor, and Kurnool from YCP strongholds.
Last edited by ShyamSP on 12 Apr 2019 02:01, edited 1 time in total.

OmkarC
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 12 Apr 2019 01:56

nachiket wrote:AP has unfortunately joined the ranks of Kerala and WB as the state where the options are between bad and worse. Jagan as we know is a not-so-closeted EJ. While CBN has turned around and joined the thugs of Mahathugbandhan.


Jagan has been trying to revamp his rabid EJ (rather, son of rabid EJ) image:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlBRW0dqYlU

Not sure if we can trust him, but at least he is openly meeting Hindu seers, taking their blessings, doing Hindu pujas & Homams, visiting temples for the past 3-4 years (not just during elections like the Nehru Gandhi family).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 12 Apr 2019 02:07

OmkarC wrote:
nachiket wrote:AP has unfortunately joined the ranks of Kerala and WB as the state where the options are between bad and worse. Jagan as we know is a not-so-closeted EJ. While CBN has turned around and joined the thugs of Mahathugbandhan.


Jagan has been trying to revamp his rabid EJ (rather, son of rabid EJ) image:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlBRW0dqYlU

Not sure if we can trust him, but at least he is openly meeting Hindu seers, taking their blessings, doing Hindu pujas & Homams, visiting temples for the past 3-4 years (not just during elections like the Nehru Gandhi family).


He is openly EJ and his BIL is EJ pracharak (watch videos by googlingZ). Factionism and Reddy title at the end mask any EJness. . Just like Hindu politicians put white cap on head for iftars he does the reverse. He recently said he forgave INC (what ever it means he forgave) to cozy up to it.

He got INC cadre as is after YSR so YCP is strong. If he loses this time the cadre goes back to INC.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 12 Apr 2019 02:19

Image

vimal
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 12 Apr 2019 02:58

What is the reason behind this weird mix of regions? Can't we do south - north or east west type of phases. It would ensure that much less central forces are involved.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby V_Raman » 12 Apr 2019 03:12

I have subscribed to PP site. Can I post tidbits?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 12 Apr 2019 03:13

V_Raman wrote:I have subscribed to PP site. Can I post tidbits?

Best not to post specific data. General trends etc. should be ok.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 12 Apr 2019 03:14

vimal wrote:What is the reason behind this weird mix of regions? Can't we do south - north or east west type of phases. It would ensure that much less central forces are involved.

and that much more rigging ?
nachiket wrote:AP has unfortunately joined the ranks of Kerala and WB as the state where the options are between bad and worse.

nachiket, how is the choice between bad and worse in WB ??

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 12 Apr 2019 03:16

Rahul M wrote:
nachiket wrote:AP has unfortunately joined the ranks of Kerala and WB as the state where the options are between bad and worse.

nachiket, how is the choice between bad and worse in WB ??

This might be the first election where it is changing, though we don't know yet if Modiji's huge rallies will translate into seats. Otherwise, it has basically been CPM goons vs TMC goons for so long now.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 12 Apr 2019 03:18

Image

Why do these buggers cry like beaten down drums? Is this defensive move or lost cause and they know. it!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 12 Apr 2019 03:24

Chowkidaar Arvind Jain


@arvind_barmer

I am hearing good reports from Telangana in at least 3 seats for BJP. Not sure if they will win, but Urban voters made distinction to vote for BJP in Lok Sabha election + Congress Melt down helped.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 12 Apr 2019 03:27

@Tweeter_wapsi
5h5 hours ago
More चौकीदार छोटे चौधरी Retweeted सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI
TDP not crossing 50seats in assembly.. 5-6LS..
Tough days ahead for the party post 2019..चौकीदार छोटे चौधरी added,
सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI

@savvyasaachi
AP
Jagan ahead in both assembly and Loksabha…


Don't know if this is true but what makes me angry is many AP folks in spite of national election can't make distinction between MP and MLA election. Split Ticket should be done by educated folks. But I don't see that in AP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 12 Apr 2019 03:29

V_Raman wrote:I have subscribed to PP site. Can I post tidbits?

Please don't post anything that disincentivizes people to sign up there themselves. Anything that makes people want to subscribe there and find everything for themselves is ok. Please use good judgement. Anything too much will be deleted.

ShyamSP
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 12 Apr 2019 03:30

vijayk wrote:
Why do these buggers cry like beaten down drums? Is this defensive move or lost cause and they know. it!


May be because ~2000 EVMs were faulty and in many places they have to start elections after 5-6 hours and run until late night.
High failure/faulty rate of EVMs in AP is outlier and suspectable.

Also, he also filed case of using 50% VVPAT for verification for which SC ordered unyielding EC to count at least 5 per MLA constituency. It is in line with what he has been trying for some time.

Even in this BRF forum, in old days when INC was ruling many discussions went for for reliable verification and integrity of EVM.
Even with new technology, Good old rigging, booth capturing and other process manipulations are seen.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 12 Apr 2019 03:32

I subscribed to PP too. I take his readings with a pinch of salt. He keeps it in suspense till end and tries to balance in the last. I estimate 240-250 for BJP and any thing above is pleasant surprise

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 12 Apr 2019 03:34

ShyamSP wrote:
vijayk wrote:
Why do these buggers cry like beaten down drums? Is this defensive move or lost cause and they know. it!


May be because ~2000 EVMs were faulty and in many places they have to start elections after 5-6 hours and run until late night.
High failure/faulty rate of EVMs in AP is outlier and suspectable..


Bharti Jain

@bhartijainTOI

Authentic info from EC on reported EVM snags in Andhra Pradesh: “Replacement of EVMs in Andhra as of now is less than 0.1% - 43 replaced out of approx 92,000”

ShyamSP
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 12 Apr 2019 03:57

Nature of fault and glitches and fixing and lack of proper handling or training are different from replacement. Obviously EVMs that were broken by throwing on the floor by voters, cadre, and candidates need replacement. There were many booths started way late and they were way more than 43.

Here it is said 116 EVMs had issue in one district alone.
===
https://www.thehindu.com/elections/andh ... 796495.ece
...
6 pm

Anantapur district registered 62.08% voting till 5 p.m. 116 EVMs malfunctioned and of them 50 had to be replaced, while the remaining were repaired. Voting was delayed between 30 minutes to 3 hours.
...
Last edited by ShyamSP on 12 Apr 2019 04:07, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Primus » 12 Apr 2019 04:04

I've been watching some of the debates and TV analyses and Aaj Ki Baat reports. Looking at the Western UP voters, Seems like a lot of people are saying 'vikas ke liye vote denge' or 'jo vikas karega usi ko vote milega', but they are not naming who it is, hopefully the BJP.

However, there is noticeable and severe polarization along Caste and religion with most of the muslims saying they are voting for 'their candidate' because vikas was done only for Hindus. Many others also said they are fed up of sectarian politics and this is a vote for Hindu-muslim unity - don't know if that is code for BJP or the opposition. Did not hear anybody openly support the Congress.

Of the ones that seem to declare their affiliation openly, most seem to be in favor of Modi. So hopefully this will be comforting.

Also, for the first time in the debate (Amish Devgan's aar-paar) the audience seems to be overwhelmingly in support of the BJP - it looks like the same people who were present in previous 'live' debates and today none of them applauded when the Cong or BSP persons spoke. Some of them are blatantly shouting anti-Congress slogans.

It is possible that the election has truly galvanized the BJP supporters, but the Muslim votes in UP will be a major factor IMHO.

Folks, please do support orgs like 5forty3.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby suryag » 12 Apr 2019 05:16

As a general note, please do not post anything from articles behind paywall(not even tidbits - which is what most people are interested in like fast food) Anything from PP's twitter timeline can be pasted with attribution. i have taken an account and i believe most can take it if they are so interested, let us support him

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Yagnasri » 12 Apr 2019 05:43

If Western UP gives good numbers of BJP just like last time good. But we can not presume that Eastern UP will be easy. SP+BSP is a formidable force which will united Muslim votes alone with anti-BJP votes one cannot be taken lightly. It is here the good admin of Yogi and NM will help along with useless Congress cutting votes. I also think we may be around 50 in UP. More seats may be difficult to win.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 12 Apr 2019 05:45

Yagnasri wrote:If Western UP gives good numbers of BJP just like last time good. But we can not presume that Eastern UP will be easy. SP+BSP is a formidable force which will united Muslim votes alone with anti-BJP votes one cannot be taken lightly. It is here the good admin of Yogi and NM will help along with useless Congress cutting votes. I also think we may be around 50 in UP. More seats may be difficult to win.

Even 50 would be a great result. I don't think anyone expected a performance like last time again.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 12 Apr 2019 08:10

vijayk wrote:Mandar Manmohan Sawant


@MandarSawant184
2h2 hours ago
More
Replying to @bhs7rocks @Gutrgoo
Maharashtra with 2019 revised figures:

Nagpur
2014: 57%
2019: 58%

Wardha
2014: 65%
2019: 65%

Yavatmal
2014: 59.3%
2019: 62%

Bhandara - Gondia
2014: 72.3%
2019: 71%

Chandrapur
2014: 63.3%
2019: 68%

Gadchiroli
2014: 69.9%
2019: 72%

Ramtek
2014: 62.6%
2019: 60%


Saw in twitter that in mominpura yindoos didn't turnup but there were more minority voters yestvthan during 2014 elections. So 14-19 numbers may match but composition may be different.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muppalla » 12 Apr 2019 08:43

ShyamSP wrote:Nature of fault and glitches and fixing and lack of proper handling or training are different from replacement. Obviously EVMs that were broken by throwing on the floor by voters, cadre, and candidates need replacement. There were many booths started way late and they were way more than 43.

Here it is said 116 EVMs had issue in one district alone.
===
https://www.thehindu.com/elections/andh ... 796495.ece
...
6 pm

Anantapur district registered 62.08% voting till 5 p.m. 116 EVMs malfunctioned and of them 50 had to be replaced, while the remaining were repaired. Voting was delayed between 30 minutes to 3 hours.
...


But the voting was allowed even until 12 midnight until the last vote was casted.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muppalla » 12 Apr 2019 09:03

TDP's situation in AP has a different paradigm than what many writing. Now unless some surprise happens, it is over and Jagan will be CM. The miracle has to be that all the data and official/unofficial polls have to go wrong.

If you take away 1983 when TDP formed, all other elections TDP only can win the election if it co-opts all to defeat Congress (now it is Jagan's YCP who inherited congress). Late NTR used to call it as mitra-pakshaalu. TDP used to align with both BJP, Left and every sundry party available. It was smart to always make it straight contest. It rarely gets more than a 5% gap. Even a 3% gap gives it a landslide of seats.

It is all the magic of religious demographics. Yes don't laugh at when I say religious demographics. AP's real Xian+Muslim percentage is 25% and couple of elite castes of AP such as Reddys make it a 30% solid unmoveable property of Congress and now YCP as inheritor got all that even in 2014. See even in 2014 the gap of votes for entire state was just 4.5 lac votes between Jagan and TDP. The win was by a thin margin. The reason is simple as TDP has on its side the budding Pawan Kalyan's party along with BJP (even 2 % vote is important). That is how it was able to beat the entire minority vote consolidation.

Now CBN in his career ending dawn, missing this simple fact and did all strategic mistakes and it will put TDP is very difficult position.

Also from caste perspective - The day Kammas and Kapus did not vote together to TDP, it is lost case. It happened now as Kapus in large scale again did not vote to TDP. Instead they voted PK and even Jagan. This is 1989 redux or may be worse.

If you take away policy and other stuff (too much mercantilism), TDP voter is a 95% Hindu demographic and is not a constant votebank except for Kammas who are not even 4% of population. All others vote TDP only if they are satisfied with the governance. But for Cong or Jagan they have fixed 30%. They only have to shop for 10 to 15% extra and it is easy to get on any second term of TDP. The 30% is unmovable even though TDP/CBN foolishly thinks they can make a dent out of it.

CBN and TDP did not change their model and tactics to changed scenarios of Center state relations, GST/Niti Ayog and decentralized model of governance. They are thinking a federated (polished word for blackmail) model can continue as opposed to federal model.

There are more caste based structural mistakes done by extreme toxic-cutthroat-cronies of Krishna and Guntur district kammas killed the party. I am hugely surprised at CBN who actually has more experience can allow such a digression. Probably end of career is near.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 12 Apr 2019 09:34

Muppalla wrote:TDP's situation in AP has a different paradigm than what many writing. Now unless some surprise happens, it is over and Jagan will be CM. The miracle has to be that all the data and official/unofficial polls have to go wrong.

If you take away 1983 when TDP formed, all other elections TDP only can win the election if it co-opts all to defeat Congress (now it is Jagan's YCP who inherited congress). Late NTR used to call it as mitra-pakshaalu. TDP used to align with both BJP, Left and every sundry party available. It was smart to always make it straight contest. It rarely gets more than a 5% gap. Even a 3% gap gives it a landslide of seats.

It is all the magic of religious demographics. Yes don't laugh at when I say religious demographics. AP's real Xian+Muslim percentage is 25% and couple of elite castes of AP such as Reddys make it a 30% solid unmoveable property of Congress and now YCP as inheritor got all that even in 2014. See even in 2014 the gap of votes for entire state was just 4.5 lac votes between Jagan and TDP. The win was by a thin margin. The reason is simple as TDP has on its side the budding Pawan Kalyan's party along with BJP (even 2 % vote is important). That is how it was able to beat the entire minority vote consolidation.

Now CBN in his career ending dawn, missing this simple fact and did all strategic mistakes and it will put TDP is very difficult position.

Also form caste perspective - The day Kammas and Kapus did not vote together to TDP, it is lost case. It happened now as Kapus in large scale again did not vote to TDP. Instead they voted PK and even Jagan. This is 1996 redux or may be worse.

If you take away policy and other stuff (too much mercantilism), TDP voter is a 95% Hindu demographic and is not a constant votebank except for Kammas who are not even 4% of population. All others vote TDP only if they are satisfied with the governance. But for Cong or Jagan they have fixed 30%. They only have to shop for 10 to 15% extra and it is easy to get on any second term of TDP. The 30% is unmovable even though TDP/CBN foolishly thinks they can make a dent out of it.

CBN and TDP did not change their model and tactics to changed scenarios of Center state relations, GST/Niti Ayog and decentralized model of governance. They are thinking a federated (polished word for blackmail) model can continue as opposed to federal model.

There are more caste based structural mistakes done by extreme toxic-cutthroat-cronies of Krishna and Guntur district kammas killed the party. I am hugely surprised at CBN who actually has more experience can allow such a digression. Probably end of career is near.



I dont think majority of "Hindus" of Andhra share your poignant view about any TDP loss. There is no strong "Hindu" identity in Andhra yet anyway, just a bunch of disorganized castes.

Also, while Jagan has a grip over the xtian vote bank, not sure all Muslims vote for him too. In recent times, CBN has outdone even Mamata Banerji in Muslim appeasement.. He is on record saying "if Modi comes again, he will take away voting rights of all Muslims" or the icing on the cake: that he will "bring persecuted Rohingyas from Burma and Maldives and he will stand by them and get them voting rights " !!

Between the anti-national statements on Pulwama and Balakot retaliations, and the Rupees 10,000 a month salary to all Mullahs, free temple lands to construct mosques and interest free loans to muslims - its looking like he's trying to outdo Mamata Banerji.

Have his party workers throw stones at Amit Shah, Abuse IAF chief, TDP sponsored TV channels even targeting Ajit Doval - are just a few of his recent exploits.

I dont know about others on this forum, but I would rather support a Christian or Islamic Pro-Indian nationalist over this so-called "Hindu" morally bankrupt Chandranna. While I dont believe Jagan is that person, but all I know is that he hasn't made any anti-national remarks against India or Modi.

Forum admin rightly said no point in talking about Andhra politics - the folks have reduced themselves to irrelevance at national level thanks to their selfish & petty politicians.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 12 Apr 2019 09:37

Another reason not to waste time on AP politics is that AP is done already and everyone’s energies and attention is better devoted elsewhere .

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Yagnasri » 12 Apr 2019 09:42

One funny thing in all this is BJP may get more seats from rest of the South this time than in 2014. We are looking one or two in KL, at least 3 in TN and may be 2 in TS and better than last time in KA.

NDA of course will do way better with ADMK getting some seats.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muppalla » 12 Apr 2019 09:44

OmkarC wrote:I dont think majority of "Hindus" of Andhra share your poignant view about any TDP loss. There is no strong "Hindu" identity in Andhra yet anyway, just a bunch of disorganized castes.


I did not have any poignant view of loss of TDP. :) My point was TDP can dance any thing like Mamta or Mahabooba, it just cannot get what Jagan gets. It foolishly tried and is about to bite the dust. The option really to survive was to be B team of BJP but the egoes are too big to see the reality.

The Telugu states are heading for a huge irrelevance for now in national politics, but it is important to see TDP's demise from a long term political aspect. Look at the growth of BJP in West Bengal. Even there no strong "Hindu" identity and the CPM vote base is what is now BJP's voter. If nurtured it can happen same in AP. BJP replacing TDP and fighting with Jagan's YCP. YCP vote base is like Mamata's vote base and it won't move that much.

Bottomline is there are few states in India the minority block voting is readjusting the politics. The political Hinduization of AP is matter of time.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muppalla » 12 Apr 2019 09:45

Yagnasri wrote:One funny thing in all this is BJP may get more seats from rest of the South this time than in 2014. We are looking one or two in KL, at least 3 in TN and may be 2 in TS and better than last time in KA.

NDA of course will do way better with ADMK getting some seats.


For Karnataka it may be >22 anytime.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kittigadu » 12 Apr 2019 10:49

There is a Hindu Identity in Andhra. Read between the lines of TDP, YSRCP, and JS Hindu supporters; BJP and Modi are their second favorite party. You can see it in the posts of TDP supporters even on this forum. But for now, caste trumps any Hindu identity. If Modi wins the center, watch him make his move on Andhra and Telengana. They are next after Bengal and Orissa. CBN is weaker, since his vote bank is Hindu FC/OBC. Hence the tantrums.

OmkarC wrote:
Muppalla wrote:TDP's situation in AP has a different paradigm than what many writing. Now unless some surprise happens, it is over and Jagan will be CM. The miracle has to be that all the data and official/unofficial polls have to go wrong.

If you take away 1983 when TDP formed, all other elections TDP only can win the election if it co-opts all to defeat Congress (now it is Jagan's YCP who inherited congress). Late NTR used to call it as mitra-pakshaalu. TDP used to align with both BJP, Left and every sundry party available. It was smart to always make it straight contest. It rarely gets more than a 5% gap. Even a 3% gap gives it a landslide of seats.

It is all the magic of religious demographics. Yes don't laugh at when I say religious demographics. AP's real Xian+Muslim percentage is 25% and couple of elite castes of AP such as Reddys make it a 30% solid unmoveable property of Congress and now YCP as inheritor got all that even in 2014. See even in 2014 the gap of votes for entire state was just 4.5 lac votes between Jagan and TDP. The win was by a thin margin. The reason is simple as TDP has on its side the budding Pawan Kalyan's party along with BJP (even 2 % vote is important). That is how it was able to beat the entire minority vote consolidation.

Now CBN in his career ending dawn, missing this simple fact and did all strategic mistakes and it will put TDP is very difficult position.

Also form caste perspective - The day Kammas and Kapus did not vote together to TDP, it is lost case. It happened now as Kapus in large scale again did not vote to TDP. Instead they voted PK and even Jagan. This is 1996 redux or may be worse.

If you take away policy and other stuff (too much mercantilism), TDP voter is a 95% Hindu demographic and is not a constant votebank except for Kammas who are not even 4% of population. All others vote TDP only if they are satisfied with the governance. But for Cong or Jagan they have fixed 30%. They only have to shop for 10 to 15% extra and it is easy to get on any second term of TDP. The 30% is unmovable even though TDP/CBN foolishly thinks they can make a dent out of it.

CBN and TDP did not change their model and tactics to changed scenarios of Center state relations, GST/Niti Ayog and decentralized model of governance. They are thinking a federated (polished word for blackmail) model can continue as opposed to federal model.

There are more caste based structural mistakes done by extreme toxic-cutthroat-cronies of Krishna and Guntur district kammas killed the party. I am hugely surprised at CBN who actually has more experience can allow such a digression. Probably end of career is near.



I dont think majority of "Hindus" of Andhra share your poignant view about any TDP loss. There is no strong "Hindu" identity in Andhra yet anyway, just a bunch of disorganized castes.

Also, while Jagan has a grip over the xtian vote bank, not sure all Muslims vote for him too. In recent times, CBN has outdone even Mamata Banerji in Muslim appeasement.. He is on record saying "if Modi comes again, he will take away voting rights of all Muslims" or the icing on the cake: that he will "bring persecuted Rohingyas from Burma and Maldives and he will stand by them and get them voting rights " !!

Between the anti-national statements on Pulwama and Balakot retaliations, and the Rupees 10,000 a month salary to all Mullahs, free temple lands to construct mosques and interest free loans to muslims - its looking like he's trying to outdo Mamata Banerji.

Have his party workers throw stones at Amit Shah, Abuse IAF chief, TDP sponsored TV channels even targeting Ajit Doval - are just a few of his recent exploits.

I dont know about others on this forum, but I would rather support a Christian or Islamic Pro-Indian nationalist over this so-called "Hindu" morally bankrupt Chandranna. While I dont believe Jagan is that person, but all I know is that he hasn't made any anti-national remarks against India or Modi.

Forum admin rightly said no point in talking about Andhra politics - the folks have reduced themselves to irrelevance at national level thanks to their selfish & petty politicians.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 12 Apr 2019 11:01

Dear posters, please don't quote the entire post to make a two line comment.

If Modi wins the center, watch him make his move on Andhra and Telengana.


This has fundamentally been the fear of the entire thagbandhan satraps for decades. Rest of the nonsense of ganga-jamuni tehzeeb, secularism etc just that.
Last edited by vimal on 12 Apr 2019 11:37, edited 1 time in total.

jamwal
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby jamwal » 12 Apr 2019 11:37

I had written it in 2017 after UP polls

Following note is a collection of data points to disprove that muslims of Uttar Pradesh have risen above their petty, ignorant mindset and voted for progress instead of behaving like the islamist votebank which they’ve been doing so since the beginning. Some journalists were whining that BJP had not fielded even one single muslim candidate in Uttar Pradesh and were insinuating that muslims have voted for BJP based on fact that Hindu candidates of BJP have won is some muslim majority constituencies.

Even some BJP leaders made vague remarks which felt like they thought that muslims have rejected Anti-BJP parties (or ABP in short. Clubbing all non-BJP parties as such because all these parties do is to present themselves as ant-BJP, anti-Modi ) in favour of development. By making such statements, BJP politicians as well as supporters are doing themselves a great disservice as it ignores the consolidation of Hindu vote which favours patriotism, development and welfare of the whole country and wrongly praises muslim polity which favours only sops and criminal appeasement.

Going further, such statements by so called secular journalists only reinforces the notion that muslims don’t want non-muslims as their representatives just like Jinnah did when he asked for Pakistan. Ironically by making such statements these sold out media pimps are just stating the obvious truth which most ignorant people try to ignore that muslims have and will always behave as an anti-Hindu islamist votebank rather than vote on basis of development based issues.

Below is a list of some muslim majority constituencies where Hindu candidates of BJP have scored victories. If you don’t want to read and process the numbers, then read the following 6 points:
1) BJP’s Hindu candidates in muslim majority constituencies have won by very thin margins of 1% to 15% or have polled less than 50% of votes.

2) Their vote ratio statistics are more or less in line with Hindu muslim demographics of the constituency.


3) The victories of these Hindu candidates is a result of anti-BJP vote being divided between two or more muslim candidates fielded by SP-Cong and BSP..


4) It is quite certain that muslim voters have voted only for muslim candidates or for ABPs without exception. The number of “secular muslim” votes to BJP is very small to negligible.


5) Wherever muslim vote fragmentation has not occurred, ABPs have won.


6) Indics should realise that “all religions are equal” slogan is believed only by them, Going by their voting patterns and actions, Abrahamics in general have no such pretensions.


I am too lazy to make a table in HTML, so the data is presented in following fashion:
1) Constituency Name
Winning BJP candidate, number of votes.
1st runner up , number of votes,
2nd runner up , number of votes.


1) Kanth.
Rajesh Kumar Singh. BJP 76307.
Aneesurrehman, SP 73959
Mohd Nasir BSP 43820

2) Meerapur.
Avtar Singh Bhadana BJP 69,035
Liyakat Ali SP 68,842
Nawazish Alam Khan BSP 39,689

3) Baheri .
Chhatra Pal Singh BJP 108,846
Naseem Ahmad BSP 66,009
Ata Ur Rehman SP 63,841

4) Utraula.
Ram Pratap BJP 85,240
Arif Anwar Hashmi SP 56,066
Parvez Ahmad BSP 44,799

5) Deoband
Brijesh BJP 102,244
Majid Ali BSP 72,844
Mavia Ali SP 55,385

5) Gainsari
Shailesh Kumar Singh BJP 55,716
Alauddin BSP 53,413
Dr Shiv Pratap Yadav SP 46,378


http://jjamwal.in/yayavar/mystery-of-bj ... elections/

Sources:
http://www.elections.in/uttar-pradesh/
https://www.upelectionsresults2017.in/u ... ners-list/
http://www.ndtv.com/elections/uttar-pra ... es-results



Only consolidation of #Hindu votes can help #BJP in these constituencies. Split Hindu votes on basis of caste & other irrelevant factors will help mahathugbandhan. If Hindus have voted there as Hindus, not Yadav, Jaat etc, then BJP will win, otherwise it's difficult

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby a_bharat » 12 Apr 2019 11:56

Muppalla wrote:It is all the magic of religious demographics. Yes don't laugh at when I say religious demographics. AP's real Xian+Muslim percentage is 25% and couple of elite castes of AP such as Reddys make it a 30% solid unmoveable property of Congress and now YCP as inheritor got all that even in 2014. See even in 2014 the gap of votes for entire state was just 4.5 lac votes between Jagan and TDP. The win was by a thin margin. The reason is simple as TDP has on its side the budding Pawan Kalyan's party along with BJP (even 2 % vote is important). That is how it was able to beat the entire minority vote consolidation.

You have it right. I will go further and say that a few castes are strongly anti-Kamma due to historical reasons (Kapus and Brahmins) who would vote against TDP. If JanaSena were not in the picture, Jagan has a strong base of about 33-35% (Xtians + Reddys + Muslims) pro vote and another 15% anti-TDP vote in pocket. On the other hand, TDP only has 4% of committed Kamma backers and has to earn most of the votes from other castes, which is an uphill task. To the extent that JanaSena cuts into anti-TDP Kapu vote, that would be a small help.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 12 Apr 2019 12:05

jamwal wrote:Only consolidation of #Hindu votes can help #BJP in these constituencies. Split Hindu votes on basis of caste & other irrelevant factors will help mahathugbandhan. If Hindus have voted there as Hindus, not Yadav, Jaat etc, then BJP will win, otherwise it's difficult

But jamwal saab, Hindu votes were already consolidated in those Muslim majority seats in 2014. The Muslim votes were split between SP and BSP. That won't happen this time due to mahathugbandhan. Pretty much impossible to hold on to them.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kittoo » 12 Apr 2019 12:26

So yesterday everything seemed hunky dory and now as more reports come out, things have sobered up for BJP somewhat. Many more days of voting to go. Lets hope at the end things are good.
I personally am predicting around 210 for BJP and 240 for NDA.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 12 Apr 2019 12:33

Usually PP posts angry rhetorics if things not going in BJP favors. Some of his recent tweets gives glimpse of what's happened.

I could be wrong in reading him though. But a triumphant mind usually post happy and optimistic tweets.


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