2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2569
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Katare » 13 Apr 2019 22:50

nachiket wrote:
Katare wrote:Higher voter turnout is really bad for the ruling party. Modiji got full majority based on a massive (iirc the largest increase ever) surge in voting. The record of voting surge before that was held by elections after emergency when Congress lost for the first time.

If you look at the video, both psephologists seem to agree that they felt BJP voters were more enthusiastic to come out and vote, before the elections, than the SP/BSP voters. So high turnout might just mean they all came out to vote. That is not an anti-incumbency vote.


Voting surge can work in favor of ruling party too, if it’s base is energized but usually antiincumbancy is needed to generate 7-10% voting surge. So far at best we are at par with last election so one can argue there is no antigovernment wave in the election. Anecdotal evidence suggest that it might even be a pro govt wave!

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5236
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 13 Apr 2019 22:54

Katare saar, take it easy.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5236
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 13 Apr 2019 23:05

BJP is contesting in 438 seats, so it needs 63% success rate to get 272 on its own. Hope AS got his candidate selection right.

https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/iit/nsircar

The BJP’s seats are extremely regionally concentrated. Six states alone – Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh – contributed 194 seats to BJP’s kitty, 69 percent of the total number of seats won by the BJP. In these states, the BJP’s strike rate was an incredible 91 percent among seats that it contested (it did not contest every seat in Bihar or Maharashtra due to pre-poll alliances), but these contested seats comprise only 39 percent of the contestable seats in the general election.


Hope Orissa and WB offset any losses in above states this time.
Last edited by Karthik S on 13 Apr 2019 23:14, edited 1 time in total.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12873
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 13 Apr 2019 23:13

Mort, I’m not being complacent . Far from it, I’m trying to collect data and analyze WHY the 2010s have reported far higher than historical turnout . What is it that drives people in states that until ten years ago had pretty consistent turnout figures for decades, suddenly report 5-10 higher percentage points in turnout data .

I’m being entirely data driven here . I’m not making predictions and cannot do so because I don’t know what to conclude from available data, other than that the data for turnout in the 2010s far exceeds historical trends on both the entire north/central and in the NE . Only the south seems to have not substantially grown in turnout .

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7920
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 13 Apr 2019 23:16

Lok Sabha elections: BJP’s 2019 challenge is threefold

An HT analysis shows that the BJP’s 2019 tally will depend a lot on what happens in 353 Lok Sabha seats across 13 states, 74% of which went to the NDA in 2014. The BJP’s political challenge on these seats can be classified into three broad categories.


Image

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7920
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 13 Apr 2019 23:21

Karthik S wrote:BJP is contesting in 438 seats, so it needs 63% success rate to get 272 on its own. Hope AS got his candidate selection right.

https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/iit/nsircar

The BJP’s seats are extremely regionally concentrated. Six states alone – Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh – contributed 194 seats to BJP’s kitty, 69 percent of the total number of seats won by the BJP. In these states, the BJP’s strike rate was an incredible 91 percent among seats that it contested (it did not contest every seat in Bihar or Maharashtra due to pre-poll alliances), but these contested seats comprise only 39 percent of the contestable seats in the general election.


Hope Orissa and WB offset any losses in above states this time.


Those six states also make the largest portion of India's population. To say they are regionally concentrated is a misnomer.

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 615
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 13 Apr 2019 23:28

Suraj wrote:I’m being entirely data driven here . I’m not making predictions and cannot do so because I don’t know what to conclude from available data, other than that the data for turnout in the 2010s far exceeds historical trends on both the entire north/central and in the NE . Only the south seems to have not substantially grown in turnout .


Also, the voter base has increased by 84 million peeps since 2014, i.e. more than 10%. So even if the voter % turnouts are looking "roughly equal" to 2014, the actual number of voters will be considerably higher...and many will be the "young, first-time voters" who are presumably enthused by NaMo.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3859
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Cain Marko » 13 Apr 2019 23:43

Things won't be too easy for BJP in parts of Maharashtra, i hear Marathi manoos is not too happy. MNS us actively campaigning against them too.

Theeran
BRFite
Posts: 186
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Theeran » 13 Apr 2019 23:53

vsunder wrote: Kerala and TN also got many, many projects. In this very same Coimbatore, it is only due diligence that allowed this dispensation to complete the Podanur-Pollachi-Dindigul re-gauging. Lemurians were cribbing about it no end, but how quickly they forget that their anguish at taking buses and being at the mercy of the bus operators ended soon. Ditto for the Palghat-Palani re-gauging


You are right. There is no talk of these projects. It was taken for granted as these had been lying idle for more than a decade. Not only that. There are numerous rail over Bridges built that have saved a ton of time. The ongoing 4 laning between cbe and pollachi has reduced travel time between kinathukadavu and pollachi by 20 mins from 45 mins. Someone with Twitter should send this info to bjp TN.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5236
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 13 Apr 2019 23:54

Cain Marko wrote:Things won't be too easy for BJP in parts of Maharashtra, i hear Marathi manoos is not too happy. MNS us actively campaigning against them too.


Well if MNS has that much say, whey are they not contesting?

AshishAcharya
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 40
Joined: 07 Feb 2018 22:10

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby AshishAcharya » 14 Apr 2019 00:13

There is a strong undercurrent in Odisha in favour of the BJP. According to the people I have interacted, even from the most remote areas, are in favour of voting for Modi. Primary reason seems to be Modi taught TSP a lesson. I have seen even the anti Modi ones have turned into hardcore supporters.

One of the visible signs of a possible BJP sweep here is Mr Naveen Patnaik, the guy who refused to learn odia for 20 years has suddenly started speaking it. And has even gone as far as to post a video of him doing exercise to show that he is healthy. This is unprecedented. He never usually bothers reacting to the opposition. But this time both he and entire BJD cadre is nervous.

We must remember that BJP won 1 seat out of 21 in Odisha in 2014 inspite of having good BJP election machinery and base. This time if they manage to win 15+ it will fill some of the losses they will suffer in North and the west.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7221
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 14 Apr 2019 00:15

Supratik wrote:Jamwal has his anti-Sikh bias but no that is not the case. The Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists are divided between those that support the nationalists and those that have bought into the C-system propaganda that the RSS is going to finish their separate identity and absorb them into Hindu society. Constitutionally and legally they are already considered Hindu. There is considerable anxiety about this.


I do not think Sikhs, Jains & Buddhists have bought into C-System propaganda that the RSS is going to finish their separate identity and absorb them into Hindu society. There is no/nyet/none/zero/shunya anxiety about this.

That is a whole load of BS spouted by C-System and their #mediapimps. And we give credibility here.

And anyway jains and buddhists are very insignificant population to make any major dent. I have been polling informally among jains and pars-is and the split is 80:20 (Namo vs CONgoon) and all of it can be traced down to DeMo and GST. In a nutshell, "demo main kitna gaya" (How much lost in DeMo).

I know of a very good friend of mine coming from the trading family complaining about announcing in his community that he lost significant chunk when his business was not actually doing well and his treasury was almost empty :rotfl: He was forced to announce that to maintain his standing in his community! His business was almost all cash.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12873
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 14 Apr 2019 00:30

KL Dubey wrote:
Suraj wrote:I’m being entirely data driven here . I’m not making predictions and cannot do so because I don’t know what to conclude from available data, other than that the data for turnout in the 2010s far exceeds historical trends on both the entire north/central and in the NE . Only the south seems to have not substantially grown in turnout .

Also, the voter base has increased by 84 million peeps since 2014, i.e. more than 10%. So even if the voter % turnouts are looking "roughly equal" to 2014, the actual number of voters will be considerably higher...and many will be the "young, first-time voters" who are presumably enthused by NaMo.

That’s right, but I’m going to avoid any presumptions here . Two things stand out - 2014 polled far higher than any regular election by turnout - much higher than even 1984, and close to 10 percentage points over the historical mean .

Generally even in phase polling, turnout doesn’t start out extraordinarily high and peter out - I’d be happy to be presented data to the contrary though .

If that wasn’t surprising, phase 1 here has not shown any broad reduction from that trend - still far ahead of historical average . Avoiding any assumptions, I’m just happy with the improvement in participatory democracy. I’ve very little understanding of the why part . The term ‘Modi wave’ doesn’t answer it - I don’t know why there’s a wave , either in 2014 for a rank national outsider with no dynastic record, or in 2019.

The point I’m making overall is that 2010s turnout data far exceeds the long term mean and while it could be explained in facile terms once, it’s harder to understand a second time . Of course most of us might be able to guess why but since that guess is subjective I’ll avoid it .

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3510
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 14 Apr 2019 00:35

Chattisgarh Phase 1 turnout only 56% (was 69% in 2014 GE).

CG is the only state in 5 years that delivered a clear, direct, anti-BJP mandate in assembly elections.

All other setbacks can be explained in different ways. KN, RJ, MP... vagaries of a first-past-the-post system. PB was an anti-SAD election, etc.

But what has gone so wrong in Chhattisgarh? And is it carrying over into the LS elections?

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6345
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 14 Apr 2019 00:39

There is a small beginning of a churning in the orthodox community in KL. I think once the Hindus start migrating all that will be left in the UDF are the IUML types and that is not good news for the orthodox community.

CG is yet unexplained. Ajit Yogi contested and took away BJP votes. Everyone was expecting him to take Cong votes. Why would former BJP voters be interested in Yogi is a mystery.

shravan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2201
Joined: 03 Apr 2009 00:08

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby shravan » 14 Apr 2019 00:39

My grandmaa was paid 2k to vote in AP. She said no but yet she was given the money because they wete distributing to everyone in the neighborhoods. It's a town... Not some remote village.


Wtf is wrong with AP.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6345
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 14 Apr 2019 00:41

Next phase key elections are in TN and KA.

ShyamSP
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2399
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 14 Apr 2019 00:43

Cain Marko wrote:Things won't be too easy for BJP in parts of Maharashtra, i hear Marathi manoos is not too happy. MNS us actively campaigning against them too.


If Maharashtra doesn't fetch seats the same as last time, BJP is in trouble. I'm not sure if Fadnis did much in regards to farmers. In MH areas, North of Telagana, might have same farmer troubles as in T.

TRS soothed anger with Ryot Bandhu scheme to get back with high numbers. In recent Loksabha elections City areas polled 39% where are rural did 60%. AP also copied T and did Annadata Sukibhava for farmers along with Haldi-kumkum scheme for women to thwart any anti incumbency.

DharmaB
BRFite
Posts: 113
Joined: 23 Feb 2019 19:21

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby DharmaB » 14 Apr 2019 00:47

vijayk wrote:Chowkidaar Arvind Jain


@arvind_barmer

I am hearing good reports from Telangana in at least 3 seats for BJP. Not sure if they will win, but Urban voters made distinction to vote for BJP in Lok Sabha election + Congress Melt down helped.


I live in one of Northern districts of TS. As per the general talks there is huge silent migration of votes to BJP. It only surfaced to feel around the day of polling. I myself did a heavy SM campaign in many groups. Motivated all family members to vote for BJP. Heard that at least 500-600 votes were cast with the help of my direct contacts at rural villages. 70-80% chances to win 2 seats apart from Secunderabad seat in my opinion.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12873
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 14 Apr 2019 00:53

DharmaB wrote:
vijayk wrote:Chowkidaar Arvind Jain


@arvind_barmer

I am hearing good reports from Telangana in at least 3 seats for BJP. Not sure if they will win, but Urban voters made distinction to vote for BJP in Lok Sabha election + Congress Melt down helped.


I live in one of Northern districts of TS. As per the general talks there is huge silent migration of votes to BJP. It only surfaced to feel around the day of polling. I myself did a heavy SM campaign in many groups. Motivated all family members to vote for BJP. Heard that at least 500-600 votes were cast with the help of my direct contacts at rural villages. 70-80% chances to win 2 seats apart from Secunderabad seat in my opinion.

WHY is there such a sentiment ? What do people give as reasoning ?

vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3002
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vera_k » 14 Apr 2019 01:21

ShyamSP wrote:If Maharashtra doesn't fetch seats the same as last time, BJP is in trouble. I'm not sure if Fadnis did much in regards to farmers. In MH areas, North of Telagana, might have same farmer troubles as in T.


Marathas, which are a significant caste group in MH were classified as backward per their demand. Farmers like Sharad Pawar make up large part of this group. People against this move will hold their nose and vote BJP. If INC had a leader, it would be a different story.

Plus the votes from the constituency that wants to see the flag on Attock again will unreservedly go to Modi. Vajpayee lost MH because of the hijacking, and that is no longer in play.
Last edited by vera_k on 14 Apr 2019 01:27, edited 3 times in total.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3859
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Cain Marko » 14 Apr 2019 01:22

Karthik S wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Things won't be too easy for BJP in parts of Maharashtra, i hear Marathi manoos is not too happy. MNS us actively campaigning against them too.


Well if MNS has that much say, whey are they not contesting?

The point is not about votes. It's about sympathy from locals and natives.

shravan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2201
Joined: 03 Apr 2009 00:08

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby shravan » 14 Apr 2019 01:26

Cain Marko wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
Well if MNS has that much say, whey are they not contesting?

The point is not about votes. It's about sympathy from locals and natives.



Even the die hard MNS supporters will vote SS and not Congress.

fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3097
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby fanne » 14 Apr 2019 01:26

Suraj the high % in 2014 was because ece and parties took effort to get everyone a voting card. The process was made easy, technology helped so did adhar etc. of course there was anti incumbency as well.
This comes from study that a bunch of us did.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3859
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Cain Marko » 14 Apr 2019 01:28

vera_k wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:If Maharashtra doesn't fetch seats the same as last time, BJP is in trouble. I'm not sure if Fadnis did much in regards to farmers. In MH areas, North of Telagana, might have same farmer troubles as in T.


Marathas, which are a significant caste group in MH were classified as backward per their demand. Farmers like Sharad Pawar make up large part of this group.

You'd think. But the numbers are not looking very good from stricken areas in marsthwada for example. Recent reports state over 200 farmer suicides since January. In many areas such as Solapur water scarcity is a major issue. 2 hours of water supply for the whole week is what I'm hearing. Even Pune has been hit. The satara and baramati area is full of rich farmerd. My understanding is that the government waivers tend to really help these guys a lot more than subsistence Farmers for whom there are fewer options but to get newer loans...
Last edited by Cain Marko on 14 Apr 2019 01:34, edited 1 time in total.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3859
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Cain Marko » 14 Apr 2019 01:31

shravan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:The point is not about votes. It's about sympathy from locals and natives.



Even the die hard MNS supporters will vote SS and not Congress.

Yes i think so too. As a lesser of evils type thing. But the massive popular support from 2014 for the bjp Sena combine, which was largely a result of modis popularity in Maharashtra, is unlikely. His image has certainly taken some damage.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 316
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 14 Apr 2019 01:33

https://twitter.com/TrueIndology/status ... 7275002880

During the Jallianwala Bagh Massacre in 1919, The Maharaja Bhupinder Singh of Patiala gave aid to British.

Michael Dwyer fondly remembered this in his autobiography

His grandson,current Punjab CM @capt_amarinder inherited name,fame and wealth from dynasty to be what he is today

DharmaB
BRFite
Posts: 113
Joined: 23 Feb 2019 19:21

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby DharmaB » 14 Apr 2019 01:41

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Rahul M wrote:seriously, you guys exude too much negativity.

you do understand that itself negatively impacts the election chances, don't you ?

modi may or may not win. but he will CERTAINLY not win if his so-called supporters stop believing he will win and start expressing scepticism at a drop of a hat. keep the faith, fight the good fight. believe in India.


Well said Rahulji.

"Enough of Mudi will lose onleee."

Whatever happens will happen. By sitting in our forum and arm chair debating how BJP loses we are doing no one any good.

Thus is the time to go out on social media, IRL interactions and overwhelm the opposition with why voting BJP is only thing.

I remember everyone saying at the onset of Modi' s term that this is going to be a marathon. Not one term but multiple terms to clear the damage done by C- ecosystem. And funnily at the first trial of these elections we are back to our dhoti-shivering.

Got to do my bit. I am going out to carpet bomb the opposition. Enough sitting at home twiddling mt thumbs



Exactly. As I said in my previous post, if in a northern district of TG state has so much impact with SM bombardment coupling with some ground work on the day of election, and creating chances to go in favor of BJP , that too facing a strong established TRS cadre, in less than two weeks of time, I can only imagine how much wave can be created in Hindi belt with established cadre there.

Please be positive and flood the SM with positive messages of NaMo and also contribute to bring the voters to booth as much as possible at individual level. This is a do-or-die situation for a nationalist progressive view of India if it ever has a chance to become at least a regional super power in coming decades. We really can't afford to lose this chance, as it is a very very rare opportunity. Please folks, please work yourself and motivate your near and dear contacts to work at ground level and make them aware of how crucial it is to do so for our survival and great future ahead in every front.

Sorry for over-emphasizing or if any demeaning of the great analysis here. But to only stress on the point made by Rahul ji & Mukesh ji...

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12873
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 14 Apr 2019 01:43

fanne wrote:Suraj the high % in 2014 was because ece and parties took effort to get everyone a voting card. The process was made easy, technology helped so did adhar etc. of course there was anti incumbency as well.
This comes from study that a bunch of us did.

Interesting perspective . Does your data also show an increase across the board for GE and Asm elections (and even municipal elections) ? In other words is voting accessibility an independent factor showing up consistently since it improved ?

DharmaB
BRFite
Posts: 113
Joined: 23 Feb 2019 19:21

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby DharmaB » 14 Apr 2019 02:09

Suraj wrote:
DharmaB wrote:
I live in one of Northern districts of TS. As per the general talks there is huge silent migration of votes to BJP. It only surfaced to feel around the day of polling. I myself did a heavy SM campaign in many groups. Motivated all family members to vote for BJP. Heard that at least 500-600 votes were cast with the help of my direct contacts at rural villages. 70-80% chances to win 2 seats apart from Secunderabad seat in my opinion.

WHY is there such a sentiment ? What do people give as reasoning ?


The educated folks, employees and youth are very much aware of the importance of NaMo to get second term, so in favor BJP. Also the local BJP candidate has lost in past two Assembly polls with a marginal difference due to sentiment towards KCR to be CM. So there is a sympathy card in play. The local population has significant muzzys and influence of folks in Hyd MIM. People are beginning to feel some nervousness with increased alienation and KCR inclination towards MIM.

What I sense is there is an underlying dispassion buidling slowly towards TRS due to curruption in projects and false projections of jobs and development among these sections, but people don't have much options left when it came to choosing a state govt. He has brought some good schemes & earned vote bank among rural & older sections. But his development projects are not to the level of every ones satisfaction.

In one of his campaign he criticized the Yindoos (a blunder) and subsequently criticized saffron gang using foul language which not at all taken well by the majority. Despite no outside help from BJP central leadership, these people are coming out, which I am sure will send signals to central leadership after 23 May to take a note and focus to build a strong cadre to create a presence in south after KA.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4098
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 14 Apr 2019 03:03

There was a silent wave in favour of Modiji in TS. Hope it translates into 2-3 seats. AP is hopeless.


disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7221
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 14 Apr 2019 03:18

Suraj wrote:WHY is there such a sentiment ? What do people give as reasoning ?


Suraj-san, you are asking for the impossible. You are asking about understanding the phenomenon called Modi, advances in EVM (I remember the booth capturing done by baahubalis in Bihar/UP) and voter registration, penetration of telephony services (WhatsApp/SM) and increased participation in the politics (does rising income help?).

The democratic outcome this decade and the man himself and the rise of his party and India's destiny itself are all intertwined in a complex manner.

Teasing it out in a comprehensible data backed with proof is very difficult for example how will you assess the impact of toilets on the democratic outcome? Is it due to woman votes or lack of participation from some community precisely because of that?
Last edited by disha on 14 Apr 2019 03:32, edited 3 times in total.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4098
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 14 Apr 2019 03:26

disha wrote:
Suraj wrote:WHY is there such a sentiment ? What do people give as reasoning ?


Suraj-san, you are asking for the impossible. You are asking about understanding the phenomenon called Modi. The democratic outcome this decade and the man himself and India's destiny itself are all intertwined in a complex manner.


Everyone I heard would say this: If Modi doesn't come, India is screwed. If all the selfish gangs get power, we are done.

In Telangana, people do understand the appeasement and its effect. Telangana news was not as poisonous as AP against BJP.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4098
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 14 Apr 2019 03:34

https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/statu ... 8698139650
Dr Sachin Reddy

@snsachinnandu
Even as Modi arrives at Bangalore palace grounds, every Kannada news channel cuts off Rahul’s speech and turns to PM’s motorcade!

This defines what ‘aukaat’ means!


https://twitter.com/Gopal_Ji_/status/11 ... 2829176833
Chowkidar GopalKeshri
‏@Gopal_Ji_
Today I watched 2 rallies of 2 national parties in Karnataka. We could visibly see the difference:

1 @RahulGandhi was visible shaken & lost confidence & surrendered. Lost

2 @narendramodi ji in complete in control, Trust, Confident and Bindaas. Winning

#ModiAgainSaysIndia

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7221
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 14 Apr 2019 03:36

vijayk wrote:Everyone I heard would say this: If Modi doesn't come, India is screwed. If all the selfish gangs get power, we are done.


I think in general Indian voters are smart and they innately seem to know who is genuine and at least puts an effort to improve things and who is not genuine. And they are opportunistic and they are forgiving as well - kind of like "Live and let Live".

chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1278
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chanakyaa » 14 Apr 2019 04:04

Karthik S wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Things won't be too easy for BJP in parts of Maharashtra, i hear Marathi manoos is not too happy. MNS us actively campaigning against them too.


Well if MNS has that much say, whey are they not contesting?

Looks like MNS won 13 assembly seats (out of 288) in the 2009 assembly elections, an in the most recent elections of Maharashtra Assembly 2014, MNS won only one seat, if I can remember.

MNS and its supremo Raj Thug-ray are criminals and slimy politicians of epic proportions, jr. Thackeray not as much to some extent. The fact that RT is indirectly supporting Kangressies is a clear indication of RT and Shiv Sena's desperation to stay relevant. And, I'm saying that as a Mumbaikar and die hard Shiv Sena fan during Bal Thackeray era. I do believe that political view between locals are impacted by Guju/non-Guju animosity from decades ago (predominant in Mumbai), which Shiv Sena and MNS keep simmering and benefit from. And, Modi-ji at the helm makes it easy to provoke those emotions. Having said, that the votes may benefit Shiv Sena and not MNS, hoping that the "yooti" (partnership) as it is called, may provide some leverage to local party. Everyone know that MNS is slimy. More broadly, Thackeray brand is waning (varying degrees across MH) and near expiration.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3886
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KLNMurthy » 14 Apr 2019 04:31

OmkarC wrote:
Katare wrote:This official BJP tweet is offending a lot of people at left and center. I have answered quite a few but seems like it could have been worded differently

https://mobile.twitter.com/bjp4india/st ... 4119371776


Must be an inside job to suppress Urban turn-out ? The message comes across a bit crass indeed.

This and Maneka Gandhi's statement to Muslims sure look like own goals or match-fixing.

Muppalla
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7082
Joined: 12 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muppalla » 14 Apr 2019 04:40

VikramA wrote:going by the tone of articles appearing since yesterday the left liberals are getting nervous. therefore plan B has been activated which is to keep rafale in news and start the whining about EVM. naidu has already started it



the opposition will partially wind up its campaign after 2nd phase. complete windup after third phase.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7920
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Apr 2019 04:42

Rudradev wrote:Chattisgarh Phase 1 turnout only 56% (was 69% in 2014 GE).

CG is the only state in 5 years that delivered a clear, direct, anti-BJP mandate in assembly elections.

All other setbacks can be explained in different ways. KN, RJ, MP... vagaries of a first-past-the-post system. PB was an anti-SAD election, etc.

But what has gone so wrong in Chhattisgarh? And is it carrying over into the LS elections?


CG had Ajit Jogi running as his separate party when he broke off from the INC in 2016. He is very much an EJ. The BJP was in CG since 2003, the anti -incumbency factor was there and Jogi basically divided the votes against the INC. Had he remained in the INC, the BJP would have won. I wouldn’t put it against international xtain orgs to have set this up as Jogi is corrupt to the bone. This time around Jogi’s party is not on the ballot. In CG it is between the BJP, INC and BSP.

Talk to your friends in the tri-state area who are from original MP. They’ll tell you alot.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Karthik S, Lisa, Vikas and 70 guests