nachiket wrote:Katare wrote:Higher voter turnout is really bad for the ruling party. Modiji got full majority based on a massive (iirc the largest increase ever) surge in voting. The record of voting surge before that was held by elections after emergency when Congress lost for the first time.
If you look at the video, both psephologists seem to agree that they felt BJP voters were more enthusiastic to come out and vote, before the elections, than the SP/BSP voters. So high turnout might just mean they all came out to vote. That is not an anti-incumbency vote.
Voting surge can work in favor of ruling party too, if it’s base is energized but usually antiincumbancy is needed to generate 7-10% voting surge. So far at best we are at par with last election so one can argue there is no antigovernment wave in the election. Anecdotal evidence suggest that it might even be a pro govt wave!