2019 General Elections News and Discussion

[chetak]

Dr BB's constituency-wise tracker is back for KA (not in the other states so far). It looks like a NDA sweep in KA (including the independent in Mandya). Only a couple of seats in which UPA is leading. If this is the situation in south KA, one can imagine what north KA will be like. One also hopes the sentiment spills over into areas of north KL too.

"MGB" is being hammered in UP with united Hindu votes and low "green" turnout.

WB and OR continue to report amazing gains for NDA.

TN seems a bit of a toss-up right now. If NDA can pull off 10-15 seats it would be OK to "declare victory" for 2019 in TN.

No news on MH, BH, and the Northeast yet.

On a macro-level...NDA seems to be taking over the "undecided voter" space (more than 15% were undecided before the election) and its vote share is now over 40%. If this trend continues then 2019 will be probably even more of a mandate than 2014.

ghee shakkar, saar but be mindful of the burī nazar this will obviously cause among envious enemies.

[vijayk]

UP, K'taka looking good but TN may be bad

[Sachin]

Whats with the Red uniforms of Kerala Police guarding Comrade Pinarayi?
Some sort of commie party affiliated Police dress symbolizing a Red Guard for the Comrade Pinaryi?

. This may be perhaps the only "uniformed" goonda gang in the world today. These are the "Red Volunteers" a pathetic attempt by CPI(M) to ape the RSS. The recruits mainly come from the jobless youth seen sitting in front of tea shops, and also many of the "head load workers union". Found more in abundance in North Kerala, where the current leadership of CPI(M) in Kerala comes from. Crass society, crass youth & crass leadership - that is the situation there. They kind of come up with these comic uniforms to give a show of strength. In party gatherings they try to act as the "police"; a thing which I felt was an insult to Kerala Police. But today I don't see any difference between these thugs and the K.P .

For a bit of enjoyment; I give you two links showing the "excellent leadership, discipline and drill" of this outfit.
Red Goonda gang - Comedy 1
Red Goonda gang - Comedy 2
Compare and Enjoy!!

[Karthik S]

TN is 61% till 5 40 PM. In 2014, it was 73.67%. Not sure what to make of it. May be we need to account for Vellore.

[vsunder]

^^^^ Garibaldi and his Red shirts, always the Italian connection too

[Mukesh.Kumar]

ghee shakkar, saar but be mindful of the burī nazar this will obviously cause among envious enemies.

Proxy for Dilbu saar.

Modi will lose only.

[darshan]

in my area off ORR in east blr, the 7-9AM period was the busiest as anyone who could run walk or crawl came to cast vote.

Always go between 1400 to 1430 hours. Lunchtime for everyone and the booths are empty of voters but the booth staff is always present in full strength.

Does it help if Dharmic people vote during busy times? I see as potential last second opportunity to expose fence sitters to the truth.

[UlanBatori]

Whats with the Red uniforms of Kerala Police guarding Comrade Pinarayi?

Santa Claus in the plural. Bring goodies to the voters.

[vimal]

More power to MiM and AAP. Jeetega Kejriwal!

[Singha]

among the 100s of people I could spot one potential AAP/commie type.

How do you spot one

a unkempt beard, distracted look, and had a filthy bhutia kukur with him which looked like it had not been bathed in its whole life.
a very wierd buddhijeebi type vibe that i have seen on my travels only in WB and KL.

but I do admit these days none can go by looks...he could well be the chief data scientist of some cash rich gig in the vicinity - there are tons within a 10km stretch of orr. whatever cause he is into, good or bad, he is in *deep* , all the way ..... could feel the searing 'commitment'

[nits]

Mukesh Ambani endorses Deora for Mumbai South seat - Intresting

Industrialist Mukesh Ambani and billionaire banker Uday Kotak have endorsed the candidature of Congress leader Milind Deora from the Mumbai South Lok Sabha constituency, where polling is slated on April 29.


The backing of Ambani, Reliance Industries Limited chairman, to the Congress leader comes at a time when the party has been unrelenting in attack on his industrialist-brother Anil Ambani over the Rafale deal.

In a video shared by Deora, former Union minister, on his Twitter page, Ambani says "Milind is the man for South Mumbai", while Kotak eulogises the Mumbai Congress chief for "truly representing the Mumbai connection".

"Milind is the man for south Mumbai... Having represented South Bombay for 10 years, I believe Milind has in depth knowledge of social, economic and cultural eco-system of the south Bombay constituency," says Ambani in the video.

[schinnas]

I have been saying that mota Bhai wants a BJP Sarkar but does not want NaMo at helm. He wants a weak BJP led coalition govt that can dance to his tunes the way previous NDA govt does.

There is a CT that mota Bhai is funding the misinformation campaign on Rafale both in India and France to kill 2 stones...get at his wayward brother and put leash on a powerful govt that can cannot manipulate easily.

It's either him or a foreign govt. No easy job stealing docs from defence Dept, planting stories in media in France and India and making sure that all media talks about it and Congress sticks with it even if it doesn't get traction amongst people.

[Agasthi]

Cast my vote along with rest of the family. It was peaceful in south chennai constituency. So far in my circle, it was ADMK or Kamalahassan. Mum is a traditional DMK supporter and very religious and despite the recent Veeramani drama on Hindu gods was not enough to sway her. Each party will retain its core voters. From what I have overheard in the buses, trains and in share autos, TN seems to be the only state where Modi seems to have a very negative image. The arguments are frivolous and definitely based on propaganda. But will they hold it against ADMK. This party is definitely seen as less corrupt than DMK. I think it maybe a close call and winning margin will be in few thousands for the victors.

[Sachin]

I have been saying that mota Bhai wants a BJP Sarkar but does not want NaMo at helm. He wants a weak BJP led coalition govt that can dance to his tunes the way previous NDA govt does.

Then it is also for the BJP to make sure that they have strings to pull down all these Mota & Pathla Bhais. The Ambani gang has been able to quite successfully run with hare and hunt with the hounds. A bit surprised that BJP once called the Baniya party do not seem to know how these big businessmen think.

UP, K'taka looking good but TN may be bad

Last time around how much of TN dependency did BJP have? Were they hoping TN to be a backup, if they don't get seats else where? And when we say TN may be bad is it bad for BJP, ADMK or both?

ghee shakkar, saar but be mindful of the burī nazar this will obviously cause among envious enemies.

And let there be no complacence from the side of "communals". Giving a false sense of security, and then striking when the opponent is weak/disarmed has been a tactic which has been used well in the past.

[Sachin]

Chintamani
‏@IamIconoclast
Apr 9
More
Here is the long awaited #Chintmani5DotsPoll - the definitive Opinion Poll on 2019 Lok Sabha Poll.
BJP/NDA 271/335
Congress/UPA 66/97
Others 111
#Elections2019
http://www.elections.in/exit-poll.html

[Karthik S]

Chintamani
‏@IamIconoclast
Apr 9
More
Here is the long awaited #Chintmani5DotsPoll - the definitive Opinion Poll on 2019 Lok Sabha Poll.
BJP/NDA 271/335
Congress/UPA 66/97
Others 111
#Elections2019
http://www.elections.in/exit-poll.html

It's 10 days old. Lot can/could have changed since then.

[Suraj]

Dr BB's constituency-wise tracker is back for KA (not in the other states so far). It looks like a NDA sweep in KA (including the independent in Mandya). Only a couple of seats in which UPA is leading. If this is the situation in south KA, one can imagine what north KA will be like. One also hopes the sentiment spills over into areas of north KL too.

"MGB" is being hammered in UP with united Hindu votes and low "green" turnout.

WB and OR continue to report amazing gains for NDA.

TN seems a bit of a toss-up right now. If NDA can pull off 10-15 seats it would be OK to "declare victory" for 2019 in TN.

No news on MH, BH, and the Northeast yet.

On a macro-level...NDA seems to be taking over the "undecided voter" space (more than 15% were undecided before the election) and its vote share is now over 40%. If this trend continues then 2019 will be probably even more of a mandate than 2014.

This needs to be HAMMERED out on social media - whatsapp or any other - the more seats BJP can get, the more Hindu causes can be considered in the 2nd term because of political ability. "Give Modi every seat you can, the others so far have done their part!" has to be pushed. This is the opposite of complacency - it's the recognition that there's an opening here to grab a mandate closer to 1984 than 2014.

[Sachin]

Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". People seem to like it, but could there be any other reason for this as well? The minorities generally are like well herded sheep, and so if they all have to stay put at home, that also would come based on instructions from "high above". Considering the sad situation in West Bengal and the Election Commission's apathy towards the complaints from that state, I don't know if there any other sinister plans in the pipe line.

[khatvaanga]

Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". People seem to like it, but could there be any other reason for this as well? The minorities generally are like well herded sheep, and so if they all have to stay put at home, that also would come based on instructions from "high above". Considering the sad situation in West Bengal and the Election Commission's apathy towards the complaints from that state, I don't know if there any other sinister plans in the pipe line.

no idea on the reason per se. saw the same happening in phase 1 UP as well as Secunderabad LS. Could be a trend this elex and two reasons that make kinda sense is that 1. TTT has made M men doubt their wimmen 2. They figured out NM gonna come back anyway. Those are my theories so take it with a tonne of salt.

[sudeepj]

Cast my vote along with rest of the family. It was peaceful in south chennai constituency. So far in my circle, it was ADMK or Kamalahassan. Mum is a traditional DMK supporter and very religious and despite the recent Veeramani drama on Hindu gods was not enough to sway her. Each party will retain its core voters. From what I have overheard in the buses, trains and in share autos, TN seems to be the only state where Modi seems to have a very negative image. The arguments are frivolous and definitely based on propaganda. But will they hold it against ADMK. This party is definitely seen as less corrupt than DMK. I think it maybe a close call and winning margin will be in few thousands for the victors.

Can you please explain the thought process of your mum or other people like her.. how can you be religious as well as a DMK supporter?

[Karthik S]

Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". People seem to like it, but could there be any other reason for this as well? The minorities generally are like well herded sheep, and so if they all have to stay put at home, that also would come based on instructions from "high above". Considering the sad situation in West Bengal and the Election Commission's apathy towards the complaints from that state, I don't know if there any other sinister plans in the pipe line.

Saw in twitter that someone in that 'high above' you mentioned asked for few seats in Bang but was denied, that anger could be correlated with lower turnout. But am unwilling to believe that same reason as yours.

[Supratik]

It may be due to what they call in Hindi as mahol or atmosphere. That is if it is true. They don't see Modi being defeated this time. So why bother. The more hardliners ofcourse are still going to vote.

[ramana]

Lost in all this din is Mukesh Ambani seeking KSA investment in his refinery business. $15B for 25% stake.
He wants $20B.

probably an insurance policy for his investments in gujarat.. in times of war they are at risk

kit combine this with direct endorsement of Milind Deora shows Mukesh Ambani is in financial trouble and is directly begging Congress to bail him out if they come to power.
By same token NaMo wont.

Mukesh has become chotu

MotaBhai--> Chotu Seth

[Rudradev]

Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". People seem to like it, but could there be any other reason for this as well? The minorities generally are like well herded sheep, and so if they all have to stay put at home, that also would come based on instructions from "high above". Considering the sad situation in West Bengal and the Election Commission's apathy towards the complaints from that state, I don't know if there any other sinister plans in the pipe line.

Actually I would like to know how this (relatively low peaceful turnout) is determined.

Is it exit polling? And after all can't people simply decline to give their religion to an exit pollster? In which case they would be counted as DK/CS even if they are peacefuls.

Or is it anecdotal evidence by stringers on the ground counting the numbers of skull-caps, beards, burqas etc. in the queues outside polling places? In which case, it could very well be inaccurate.

[Karthik S]

Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". People seem to like it, but could there be any other reason for this as well? The minorities generally are like well herded sheep, and so if they all have to stay put at home, that also would come based on instructions from "high above". Considering the sad situation in West Bengal and the Election Commission's apathy towards the complaints from that state, I don't know if there any other sinister plans in the pipe line.

Actually I would like to know how this (relatively low peaceful turnout) is determined.

Is it exit polling? And after all can't people simply decline to give their religion to an exit pollster? In which case they would be counted as DK/CS even if they are peacefuls.

Or is it anecdotal evidence by stringers on the ground counting the numbers of skull-caps, beards, burqas etc. in the queues outside polling places? In which case, it could very well be inaccurate.

Turnout percentage in that constituency saar.

[ramana]

Or it could just be that Milind Deora is a stronger/preferred local candidate vs Arvind Sawant of Shiv Sena? I don’t know much about Milind or his late father Murli Deora but they seem to be less parasitic than is typical of the Con heritage. Open to be corrected!

original dukhandaars of Ambanis

[Rudradev]

Actually I would like to know how this (relatively low peaceful turnout) is determined.

....

Turnout percentage in that constituency saar.

If it is about low turnout in green areas, i.e. LS constituencies with 30%+ green population, then it could actually be a bad thing. It could mean that non-greens are staying home instead of voting because they believe that the green vote will prevail anyway, and they are not enthused enough about Modi to make the effort. Many such seats actually went to NDA last time only because every last non-peaceful made it a point to go to the polls and outvote the greens.

[Suraj]

Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". People seem to like it, but could there be any other reason for this as well? The minorities generally are like well herded sheep, and so if they all have to stay put at home, that also would come based on instructions from "high above". Considering the sad situation in West Bengal and the Election Commission's apathy towards the complaints from that state, I don't know if there any other sinister plans in the pipe line.

From a game theoretic perspective, herding a supposedly cohesive and always committed voting group to the booths makes sense when you're confident that everyone is reading off the same book. However, when there's no guarantee that a subgroup isn't pressing lotus buttons, then the smarter thing to do is force abstainment rather than put fuel on the fire.

[Rahul M]

among the 100s of people I could spot one potential AAP/commie type.

How do you spot one

he was wearing a muffler in mid-april and had a jhadoo stuck up his behind.

[Sachin]

Is it exit polling? And after all can't people simply decline to give their religion to an exit pollster? In which case they would be counted as DK/CS even if they are peacefuls.

In a constituency, every politician would know the areas/wards which fall under it. And under these areas/wards, there are multiple voting centers. And people in the game would know the demographics of the people who would vote in each voting centre.So in the case of "greens", it would be quite easy to identify the polling booths in their strong holds and then check the polling %-age there. It may not give a very accurate figure, but can give some indications. Politicians generally also knows areas which are their strong holds areas which are not; and can even plan their "dole outs" accordingly.

[Dumal]

Milind or his late father Murli Deora

original dukhandaars of Ambanis

Mhmm... that makes sense. The father was the Minister for petroleum and natural gas during much of the upa years! And why there are propping up the son.

[ramana]

Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". .....

From a game theoretic perspective, herding a supposedly cohesive and always committed voting group to the booths makes sense when you're confident that everyone is reading off the same book. However, when there's no guarantee that a subgroup isn't pressing lotus buttons, then the smarter thing to do is force abstainment rather than put fuel on the fire.

This is what is happening in the minority community.
They know Modi is coming back and why incur wrath by voting against the winner.

Also deep understanding that MGB and Congress will use and throw them away one they get power.

Islam is a very political religion and is about power.

Look at Sidhu bolivating in Bihar where he has no salience!
Anyone think he will help deliver goods to the voters if elected?


At least by telling Modi they abstained, they can ensure continued benefits allowed under the law.

[ramana]

The whole CON/CIA/ISI/NYT/WaPo and corrupt scum media has been bringing in venom on Sadhvi's nomination in Bhopal. Has she been acquitted? Is this necessary? Will the full hatred by MSM impact middle class voting?

How is it going to impact this in UP/MP/RJ?

The NIA has dropped the prosecution.
However judge has kept the case pending.
There is nothing to prosecute.

Judge is old timer Congress gang.

[ramana]

UP, K'taka looking good but TN may be bad

TN did not figure in the big picture to get BJP majority.

They can line up with AP and TG and get nothing from Modi.
Second term the stick will come out.

People will suffer but hopefully its a cane and not a stick.

[Rudradev]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/hindus-no ... ant-report


Hindus Not Allowed To Vote In Muslim Dominated Area Of West Bengal’s Raiganj, Proxy Voting Rampant: Report

[ramana]

It may be due to what they call in Hindi as mahol or atmosphere. That is if it is true. They don't see Modi being defeated this time. So why bother. The more hardliners ofcourse are still going to vote.

I think your logic holds for areas where the Muslims are in small numbers and administration is BJP. Like in UP.

In Muslim majority areas with non BJP govt, they would come out and vote and prevent others from voting as in Bengal.

[ramana]

<poof gone>

Zynda why did you have to edit unless its inflammatory.

I edited out Hanumadu's crass post.

[ramana]

Good updates, hope they stand, can't take another anti climax like assembly elections. UP and KA are both very very important states for BJP to be back. WB looks like too much rigging with all the noise going around.

Lets see.
The voter turnout in Bengal is in 70s at the close of polling.

[Singha]

I hope the green % decline if any is evenly spread across gender and not women prevented from voting lotus while men voted

[Singha]

The people bengal created the monster called cpim which transformed into tmc
Wb always has highest degree of voters being threatened and political violence all tighly controlled by state govt and not leaked to outside media