2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 18 Apr 2019 21:52

Singha wrote:I hope the green % decline if any is evenly spread across gender and not women prevented from voting lotus while men voted



There are anecdotal information that its uniform in some areas, others its the women folk, in some cases its the Ajlaf and Arzals.

So mixed bag but our secularism prevents from understanding the nuances as reporters cant report facts.
And after elections its only academic interests or only certain poll gurus study it!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 18 Apr 2019 21:56

Singha wrote:The people bengal created the monster called cpim which transformed into tmc
Wb always has highest degree of voters being threatened and political violence all tighly controlled by state govt and not leaked to outside media



RayC had a thread on Bengal in GDF.
The gist is Bengal response is due to the partition woes.
They thought turning Left and against Congress was right way to bring about change in their political power status.

Jihadidi captured their vote-base and unleashed BD refugees to say in power.
Now we see the return to the west.
A few pages ago I had a half liner.
Reflect on that.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kit » 18 Apr 2019 22:08

kerala is not so different from bengal despite being 100% literate .. which sane person will vote the commies

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 18 Apr 2019 22:14

Sachin wrote:Gents a quick question - in many posts I saw news about "low turn turn out in green areas". People seem to like it, but could there be any other reason for this as well? The minorities generally are like well herded sheep, and so if they all have to stay put at home, that also would come based on instructions from "high above". Considering the sad situation in West Bengal and the Election Commission's apathy towards the complaints from that state, I don't know if there any other sinister plans in the pipe line.


this is a 4 or 5 day weekend depending on how smart one has been.

Is it possible that our guys have decamped for a long family weekend as usual and that explains the low turnout percentage?

Minority areas "low turnout" may strictly not be applicable as the minorities are all under instruction to vote and they never leave for weekends, long or short, and rightly, like you said, they are herded like sheep.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 18 Apr 2019 22:18

ramana wrote:
Singha wrote:The people bengal created the monster called cpim which transformed into tmc
Wb always has highest degree of voters being threatened and political violence all tighly controlled by state govt and not leaked to outside media



RayC had a thread on Bengal in GDF.
The gist is Bengal response is due to the partition woes.
They thought turning Left and against Congress was right way to bring about change in their political power status.

Jihadidi captured their vote-base and unleashed BD refugees to say in power.
Now we see the return to the west.
A few pages ago I had a half liner.
Reflect on that.


If anyone is interested i would really reconnect the book Epic City by Kushanava Chowdhury. He is our contemporary. Liberal but he does capture how the Bengali psyche went from the time of contemplating armed rebellion against the British to what it id today. Makes for sad reading.

@ramanaji. I will agree with you. The pendulum will swing West again. But then that would call for stripping away the veneer of the bhodrolok. In reality what you see Didi s fans doing is the true face of Bengal.

I wonder if Bengal will take a Godhra redux or another Noakhali at Partition to swing back into p mainstream of Indian political thought.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 18 Apr 2019 22:19

Every week is a Godhra in WB. Noakhali? The next time there are massacres on the scale of partition, there won't be any Hindus left to swing back into the mainstream.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 18 Apr 2019 22:22

Singha wrote:The people bengal created the monster called cpim which transformed into tmc
Wb always has highest degree of voters being threatened and political violence all tighly controlled by state govt and not leaked to outside media


++1 Singhaji. You hit the nail on the head. It's the same goons running the show mostly. But under garb of TMC.

The dissonance we see is partly because some of the goons (intellectual and street, both) from the Left were left out in the field by Didi. That's why the tightly controlled narrative of no violence is breaking down.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 18 Apr 2019 22:22

kit wrote:kerala is not so different from bengal despite being 100% literate .. which sane person will vote the commies

'Voting for commies' is the first step in misunderstanding KL politics. Yes their name says 'communist', but they're as Communist as CPC in Beijing, perhaps less, despite wasting vocal energy babbling 'China's chairman is our chairman' from the local street corner now and then.

LDP is a vote bloc, solidified over decades of patronage network building, where many communities depend on them in a symbiotic socio-economic contract - we vote for you, you look after our business and life interests.

LDF and UDF are not parties in KL as much as patronage networks with an assiduously cultivated base and a floating voter base that switches between the two opportunistically.

BJPs key to gaining a foothold is building a social network of its own - a collection of leaders and cadre who can offer support to its voting group and build a base with them. Their natural vote base is the LDF, and the actions of LDF (e.g. Sabarimala) should serve as fuel to cause people to move to BJP, but it still requires work because people would rather vote for a bad but still powerful LDF than a powerless state BJP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 18 Apr 2019 22:25

They should move to online voting in addition to regular voting. With more and more people becoming prosperous the urban areas are seeing poor voter turnout. The technology should not be that hard with Adhaar and all.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 18 Apr 2019 22:25

Rudradev wrote:Every week is a Godhra in WB. Noakhali? The next time there are massacres on the scale of partition, there won't be any Hindus left to swing back into the mainstream.


Sadly sir it never comes out in the open. As time goes on i see more and more people give up and move out. Embarrassed to say this, but for all my jingoism, i am once off that same bunch.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 18 Apr 2019 22:25

Rudradev wrote:Every week is a Godhra in WB. Noakhali? The next time there are massacres on the scale of partition, there won't be any Hindus left to swing back into the mainstream.


Well nature's law, anything weak is marked for extinction. Same goes for any religious group.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Picklu » 18 Apr 2019 22:30

Not only the election is spread out, but the filling and campaign dates are also spread out.

BJP is taking full advantage.

Filling nomination of Shadhvi a day before 2nd phase of election has been a master stroke.

Everyone Hindu I have talked to, has become charged, even if not so enthu about the vote just a day before this.

Cong being old masters of the game, caught on quickly and kept mouth shut , full favicol mode.

Libturds, not so smart. Trying to rally the urban voter with righteous indignation, they have ensured everyone who could read have learnt about her 8 year ordeal and got motivated to vote BJP

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 18 Apr 2019 22:38

PP is giving phase 2 to NDA with the exception of TN.


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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 18 Apr 2019 22:44

In UP, it seems while Jatavs are still voting for BSP, a significant portion of them - those that received multiple benefits of Modi's schemes- are voting for BJP.

Perhaps, muslims too who gained multiple benefits are staying at home to avoid voting against Modi. They cannot vote for Modi of course, but some where their conscience is being pricked that they cannot get themselves to vote against Modi either. Add to it some women voters not voting or not being allowed to vote. Not to mention, expectations of greater benefits and improved quality of life if Modi comes back to power.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby khatvaanga » 18 Apr 2019 22:47

ramana wrote:This is what is happening in the minority community.
They know Modi is coming back and why incur wrath by voting against the winner.

At least by telling Modi they abstained, they can ensure continued benefits allowed under the law.


I hope that is the case. Alternatively, I am more worried they are ready to let this go until they become the majority in places where their writ can run without any interference from the State.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 18 Apr 2019 22:52

Dr Sachin Reddy
‏ @snsachinnandu
5m
In Tamizhnad, NDA seems to have had a clear edge in 10 seats- Kovai, Ramnad, Tenkashi, Theni, Pollachi, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Salem, Erode and Tiruppur Outside chances in Nilgiris, Sivagangai and Kanyakumari Safe to call TN 10-30 as worst case scenario for NDA

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 18 Apr 2019 22:53

hanumadu wrote:In UP, it seems while Jatavs are still voting for BSP, a significant portion of them - those that received multiple benefits of Modi's schemes- are voting for BJP.

but will they X-vote for SP, that is the question. because so far, yadav's are not voting en masse for BSP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby khatvaanga » 18 Apr 2019 23:01

Rahul M wrote:
hanumadu wrote:In UP, it seems while Jatavs are still voting for BSP, a significant portion of them - those that received multiple benefits of Modi's schemes- are voting for BJP.

but will they X-vote for SP, that is the question. because so far, yadav's are not voting en masse for BSP.



jatavs voting for BSP is given. How the rest of dalits [60%] vote is the key. It looks like BSP has broken down except for Jatavs. Same with SP. 80% Yadavs are not voting for BSP. Which means ghatbandhan is a non-starter. With lower green voting....

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 18 Apr 2019 23:05

Chinatmani has called phase 2. BJP 36, NDA 55 out of 95. Combining ph 1 and 2 NDA now 99/186.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 18 Apr 2019 23:05

Is there no end to mumtaz begum's devious behavior??



Another Bangladeshi Actor Found Campaigning For TMC In Bengal; Was Living In India Despite Expired Visa

by Swarajya Staff - Apr 18 2019,

Another Bangladeshi Actor Found Campaigning For TMC In Bengal; Was Living In India Despite Expired Visa

Following the political furore over Trinamool roping in Bangladeshi actor Ferdous Ahmed for campaigning in West Bengal’s Raigunj area, another Bangladeshi actor has been found campaigning for the party in Kolkata’s Dum Dum, Zee News has reported.

The actor identified as Ghazi Abdul Noor had attended a rally of Trinamool Minister Saugata Roy. It was later found that he was living in India despite having an expired visa and has been asked by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) to immediately leave the country.

Appropriate action is also being taken in connection with him overstaying in the country, claimed reports.

Earlier, Home Ministry had cancelled the business visa of Bangladeshi actor Ferdous Ahmed and served him a leave India notice. He was also blacklisted by the Home Ministry and the Foreigners Regional Registration Office was directed to comply with the orders

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 18 Apr 2019 23:09

One more BJP vote:
BSP supporter chops off his finger after voting for BJP by mistake

Remind me of the anecdote from the 1990s by when Benazir was mistaken for the Indian PM in YooEss, by some Senators. They were baffled because she kept talking about India and thought she was the Indian PM. This guy saw BJP everywhere and accidentally ended up voting for them too...

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 18 Apr 2019 23:10

Hmm we should only be interested in BJP alone. BJP getting through half way mark is important. But looks like land of dumeels have done it. It can be added to WB and KL soon.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 18 Apr 2019 23:19

The first 2 phases (mainly south) were the weakest for BJP. Big zero in AP, 1 in TG (out of 42 total) and poor show in TN by allies.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 18 Apr 2019 23:20

any one from Bangalore?
Over all voting turnout is not even 50% in three zones.
Why? And which way wind seems to be blowing in Blore?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Apr 2019 23:26

Suraj wrote:
nachiket wrote:I think Suraj made a post earlier in the thread with data that kinda disproves that in the Indian context. The correlation simply wasn't there.

Here is that post. There are a few more in that context in that thread and the next one.

Generally speaking, turnout isn't a correlating factor. However, there's a connection between substantial upward change in turnout, and anti-incumbency. It's rather hard to visualize turnout increasing in this GE, considering that my data shows that last GE was already the highest turnout ever seen in a GE, by some distance. Phase 1 of this GE has kept up with that turnout. Let's see how Phase 2 does today.

It's at 66%. Sounds like it's keeping up with last GE or better.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 18 Apr 2019 23:29

ECI has plenty of turnout data available on their site. Here's the Karnataka election commissioner's site with turnout data and comparison to 2014, including turnout by assembly zone

Other state figures can be accessed from the drop down menu next to the map: Election Commission of India

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 18 Apr 2019 23:30

Supratik wrote:The first 2 phases (mainly south) were the weakest for BJP. Big zero in AP, 1 in TG (out of 42 total) and poor show in TN by allies.


By design, all weak areas for BJP were pushed to early polling (1&2) and next phases are all setup to strong areas. Given the polling the there are no new seats, at least impacting numbers, from non-BJP dominant states. It boils down to how well they do in the core areas. Now on any losses in UP, RJ, MP, and CG can't be compensated by gains in any where else.

Looks like by putting Sadhvi in the race, BJP is indicating they want to recharge Hindutva in MP and other core areas to cut down losses.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 18 Apr 2019 23:36

ShyamSP wrote:Looks like by putting Sadhvi in the race, BJP is indicating they want to recharge Hindutva in MP and other core areas to cut down losses.

It also serves as a dog whistle to signal that the 2nd admin will focus more on Hindu causes and needs the electoral support.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhishekm » 18 Apr 2019 23:39

IndraD wrote:any one from Bangalore?
Over all voting turnout is not even 50% in three zones.
Why? And which way wind seems to be blowing in Blore?


Three seats in Bangalore - South, Central and North are likely to be with the BJP. I wouldn't read much into the low voter turnout. Bangalore Rural will likely go to Congress heavyweight DK Suresh. That's 3-1 in favour of BJP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sanjayc » 18 Apr 2019 23:42

Supratik wrote:They should move to online voting in addition to regular voting. With more and more people becoming prosperous the urban areas are seeing poor voter turnout. The technology should not be that hard with Adhaar and all.


No secrecy in online voting. Padres will call the flock to the church and supervise voting. Same with Mullahs. Same with local goondas of politicians in slums. They will set up a computer and ask everyone to assemble at a single place and vote under their watchful eye.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rhytha » 18 Apr 2019 23:45

kit wrote:kerala is not so different from bengal despite being 100% literate .. which sane person will vote the commies


The lazy ones, I have dealt with many lazy Mallus who are intellectually lazy, can’t think of fixing a problem but give thousand excuses, not the blue collor kind but white collor.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 18 Apr 2019 23:46

357 seats left to poll. Going by Chintamani's numbers BJP needs to win 202 of these for simple majority and 291 for 2/3.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 18 Apr 2019 23:53

Supratik wrote:The first 2 phases (mainly south) were the weakest for BJP. Big zero in AP, 1 in TG (out of 42 total) and poor show in TN by allies.


Yes, Phases 1 & 2 covered large tracts of the most challenging regions for BJP.

Of the 437 seats BJP is contesting, there are about 80-90 "low chance" seats (mostly in AP/TG/KL/WB and a few in other states).

The actual challenge is to win the other 350 or so contests with a minimum 75% conversion rate. If one looks at the predictions from various sources during the two phases so far, it seems the party is on track towards this.

If some of the "low chance" seats throw up pleasant surprises, all the better.

With the very strong performance so far in UP (and MGB increasingly falling apart), and large gains in WB/OR/KA etc, the momentum is clearly gaining and heading for a NaMo Tsunami that would give BJP well over 272 seats on its own.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 19 Apr 2019 00:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 18 Apr 2019 23:58

twitter


Entire family waiting to see the lotus bloom

Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Theeran » 19 Apr 2019 00:03

ramana wrote:
TN did not figure in the big picture to get BJP majority.

They can line up with AP and TG and get nothing from Modi.
Second term the stick will come out.

People will suffer but hopefully its a cane and not a stick.


This perpetuates the thinking that whoever is in center will never support TN. People here are used to it. A stick is not going to hurt anymore than it already has. The only thing that will work are sweets and hugs. Modi knows and has been spending quite a bit of time in TN.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 19 Apr 2019 00:16

OT but please watch this video

twitter




Heart-wrenching. Aao bacchon sair karayen tum ko Pakistan ki jis mein keemat koi nahin hai teri meri jaan ki...

https://twitter.com/nailainayat/status/791555362658906113

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 19 Apr 2019 00:20

Supratik wrote:357 seats left to poll. Going by Chintamani's numbers BJP needs to win 202 of these for simple majority and 291 for 2/3.


2/3rd majority for BJP on its own, i.e. 362 seats, looks like a bridge too far this time (but you never know what Modi can do!).

However, a 2/3rd majority for NDA is in the realm of possibility, with BJP crossing 300, larger allies like JDU/SS/AIADMK/LJP/AD yielding ~50, plus the small parties getting ~10.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 19 Apr 2019 00:27

GE2019 continues to maintain heavy voter turnout on par with GE2014:
A 67.84 per cent voter turnout was recorded in the second phase of Lok Sabha polls on Thursday in 95 seats spread across 11 states and a Union Territory, the Election Commission said.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 19 Apr 2019 00:28

Mulllah stop Ahmed Patel from getting on dais https://twitter.com/jpsin1/status/1118898250730233858


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