2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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Supratik
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 19 Apr 2019 00:29

Yeah looks too far but except KL most of the difficult states are out and WB prediction is now 4/6, Odisha 5/8 for ph1/2.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 19 Apr 2019 00:32

KL Dubey wrote:
Supratik wrote:357 seats left to poll. Going by Chintamani's numbers BJP needs to win 202 of these for simple majority and 291 for 2/3.


2/3rd majority for BJP on its own, i.e. 362 seats, looks like a bridge too far this time (but you never know what Modi can do!).

Yes, let's not start preparing the butter-chicken before the murghis hatch. Even 300 for BJP is a very very tall order. The 2014 wave was humongous and there are more headwinds this time.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 19 Apr 2019 00:37

Image



bangalore assembly segments

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outside bangalore assembly segments

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Zynda » 19 Apr 2019 00:41

Per Dr. Sachin Reddy who describes himself as "Politically Centre-Right! Psephology & demographic pattern analysis"...
Here are my seat calls for first phase in KA

B North- BJP
B Central- BJP
B South- BJP
B Rural- Con
Chikkaballapur- BJP(Flip)
Kolar- Too close
Mysore- Too close
Tumkur- Too close
Chitradurga- BJP(Flip)
Hassan- JDS
Mandya- JDS
Chamarajanagar- Con
Udupi- BJP
S Canara- BJP


https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/statu ... 5838384131

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Vips » 19 Apr 2019 00:46

Election workers in India traveled 300 miles over 4 days to set up a polling booth — for one voter.

In the fading afternoon light, Gammar Bam glanced down nervously at a fast-flowing river in a corner of northeastern India. His team had already driven eight hours on one-lane mountainous roads and shaky bridges. Now they were trekking on a slippery path hugging a cliff.

Bam looked at the narrow track and tried to gauge if he could clamber over an uprooted tree while carrying a voting machine. Somehow, he would have to make it work.

The world’s largest electoral exercise began this month in India and will take place in seven phases over a 38-day period. Results will be announced on May 23. Nearly 900 million people are eligible to vote, and India is committed to reaching them all, no matter where they live.

For Bam and his team of polling officers, that meant a four-day journey of over 300 miles — to ensure a single voter in a remote border state could cast her vote.

“There is both excitement and nervousness,” said Rupak Tamang, one of the team members, as he set up the voting machines. “If the one voter turns up, there will be 100 percent voting, but if she doesn’t, then it will be zero percent.”

Conducting elections in the world’s largest democracy is a herculean task. Every five years, when national polls are held, the country’s Election Commission grapples with challenging terrain, inclement weather and poor infrastructure to ensure that no voter who wants to cast a ballot is left out.

“We want to make elections as participative as possible,” said Ashok Lavasa, one of the three election commissioners. “This is a manifestation of democracy’s deep roots in India.”

Rules mandate that no voter should have to travel more than 1.24 miles to vote.

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Election workers in India traveled 300 miles over four days across winding mountain roads and river valleys for one single voter. Malogam is a remote hamlet in forested mountains in Arunachal Pradesh, close to the border with China.

In the western state of Gujarat, a team will cross a lion-infested jungle to find a single voter. In the region of Ladakh, high in the Himalayan mountains, teams will be airlifted before trekking for one day with oxygen cylinders to reach voters. Far off the country’s east coast, on the remote Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the teams braved crocodile swamps for nine voters.

The lengths to which India goes to reach voters is a reflection of its commitment to universal franchise: Unlike in the United States, all adults in India have had the right to vote since the country’s first election.

To conduct the poll, the Election Commission relies on more than 11 million government employees and security personnel who temporarily become election officials. Bam, a 35-year old engineer in Arunachal Pradesh, the country’s most sparsely populated state, was one of them. His task: to set up a polling booth in Malogam, a remote hamlet in forested mountains close to the border with China and more than 1,600 miles from the capital of New Delhi.

According to the last census, conducted in 2011, Malogam had five residents but only one registered voter this time — Sokela Tayang.

The journey of Bam’s team began two days before the first phase of the election on April 11. They started in Hawai, the district headquarters, a small town nestled high in the mountains at an altitude of 3,600 feet.

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Gammar Bam and his team trek through a slippery forest path on a mountain cliff to set up a polling booth for one voter.

They carried two sets of voting machines, a thick sheaf of paperwork and utility items, like a bucket and battery-operated lamp.

They set out early the next morning, juddering over potholed roads overlooking a shimmering river valley.

The drive was only the start. In the late afternoon, they began trekking on a narrow forest path barely wide enough for one person. Bam treaded lightly, deftly swatting wild overgrowth while keeping an eye out for snakes.

During the hike, a problem emerged. Locals told them that Tayang, the voter they had come all this way to meet, had left the area. But Bam was not deterred: He decided to set up the polling booth closer to the road and try to get word to her through villagers.

They zeroed in on a ragged tin shed at the edge of the forest and borrowed rickety plastic chairs and cobwebbed tables from a nearby villager. A local administrator came by to review and approve the preparations.

By then, darkness had descended. The team walked to the nearest hutment — with no toilet, no electricity, no cellphone signal — to bunk down for the evening. They ate a simple meal of rice and lentils, then spent the night on a bamboo floor above a chicken pen. The next morning, the crowing of roosters woke them up at the crack of dawn: election day.

Bam’s team first had to conduct a mock poll at 5 a.m., per commission rules. The exercise is done for the benefit of candidates or their representatives to show that machines are working properly and no votes are already recorded. Even for a single voter, the practice poll required 50 mock votes. There would be no cutting corners.

The polling booth in the tin shed was open for business on time, at 7 a.m., the official start of voting across India.

Tayang did not disappoint. Like Bam and his team, the 42-year-old farmer had also put in an effort to vote. Tending to her sick mother, 125 miles away, she returned to Malogam only to cast her ballot.

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A ragged tin shed in the forest turned into a polling booth for a single voter in the state of Arunachal Pradesh.

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Sokela Tayang, a 42-year-old farmer, waits to cast her vote.

She arrived just after 8:30 a.m. She was offered a yogurt drink and asked to wait under the shade while they dealt with a last-minute glitch with the voting machine.

As an election official recorded video, Tayang walked into the shed, showed her identification card and had her finger dabbed with purple ink (all Indian voters receive such a mark to prevent anyone from voting twice). She stepped behind a piece of plywood to cast her vote. The machine beeped loudly. It was over in less than two minutes.

She had some requests for her elected representatives. “We want to ask for jobs and development through our vote,” Tayang said. Looking around at the surrounding wilderness with disappointment, she said, “Our area is still a jungle and needs to be developed.”

After a round of selfies, she thanked the team for the trouble they had taken. But while Tayang’s work was over within minutes, Bam’s task was far from finished. The polling booth was required to stay open until the official close of voting at 5 p.m. There was tedious paperwork to complete, including a 67-item checklist. Then the voting machines needed to be sealed four times.

“Even a pencil has to be accounted for,” Bam said with a laugh.

After wrapping up the paperwork, they packed up the machines and set off once more down the winding road. It would still be another day before they reached home. But for now, their job was done.

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Bam and his team members carry their equipment after the poll closed at 5 p.m.

Suraj
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 19 Apr 2019 00:49

IndraD wrote:Mulllah stop Ahmed Patel from getting on dais https://twitter.com/jpsin1/status/1118898250730233858

Here's how I translated that in my weak Hindi: "I won't let you climb on this dais. You are a deceitful liar. Do you remember the last time you came and told us Muslims so many words, and we took you on your word and voted INC in. And now you're coming back 5 years later saying the same thing. You are shameless".

Bliss to correct as needed.

ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 19 Apr 2019 01:04

kit wrote:kerala is not so different from bengal despite being 100% literate
.. which sane person will vote the commies





The Bengal and Kerala vote bank for Commies is by Hindus.
The minority (Muslims+Christians+Secular Hindus) always voted for Congress.
The reason why Hindus voted for Left is they wanted a new beginning from the past and thought that was the vehicle.

Turned out its a Pied Piper to disaster.
In Bengal the Left had to be dislodged and TMC was the vehicle.
Jihadidi combined the minority+ BD vote of the Left to dislodge them.
Now her former Hindu supporters see the chance to get rid of her and took support of BJP.
In grand narrative style its the redux of the overthrow of Siraj ud daulah.

Kerala is a little more complex as the Congress retains its minority vote bank.

Will take one more iteration.

I expect Pinnaryi to unleash the PFI and his red shirts after 23 May.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 19 Apr 2019 01:06

Suraj wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:Looks like by putting Sadhvi in the race, BJP is indicating they want to recharge Hindutva in MP and other core areas to cut down losses.

It also serves as a dog whistle to signal that the 2nd admin will focus more on Hindu causes and needs the electoral support.



I suggest using different words lest it is mistaken.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 19 Apr 2019 01:11

WB is returning to its nationalist position after flirting with socialism post partition debacle. The term Hindutva was coined by a Bengali much before Savarkar. The icons were/are Bankim, Vivekananda and Aurobindo.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 19 Apr 2019 01:11

Theeran I expect three BJP seats in TN.
Thats great.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby shravan » 19 Apr 2019 01:22

Supratik wrote:The term Hindutva was coined by a Bengali much before Savarkar. The icons were/are Bankim, Vivekananda and Aurobindo.


I always thought hindutva was coined by Savarkar

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 19 Apr 2019 02:01

shravan wrote:
Supratik wrote:The term Hindutva was coined by a Bengali much before Savarkar. The icons were/are Bankim, Vivekananda and Aurobindo.


I always thought hindutva was coined by Savarkar

Well, whoever coined it, Bengal is the place it needs to find the most traction at this juncture. Nowhere else in the country are Hindus under such imminent threat (since the Kashmiri Hindus have already been driven out).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 19 Apr 2019 02:01

I am going to perform Dhoti shivering till the final results are announced. Still can't forget 2004.
Modijee will lose onlee! :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kakkaji » 19 Apr 2019 02:04

Where is Dilbu?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 19 Apr 2019 02:20

^^ If Modi ji loses onlee, :(( :(( :(( , we know whose fault it will be. Bunk marta hai saala.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 19 Apr 2019 02:24

Suraj wrote:'Voting for commies' is the first step in misunderstanding KL politics. Yes their name says 'communist', but they're as Communist as CPC in Beijing, perhaps less, despite wasting vocal energy babbling 'China's chairman is our chairman' from the local street corner now and then.

LDP is a vote bloc, solidified over decades of patronage network building, where many communities depend on them in a symbiotic socio-economic contract - we vote for you, you look after our business and life interests.

LDF and UDF are not parties in KL as much as patronage networks with an assiduously cultivated base and a floating voter base that switches between the two opportunistically.

BJPs key to gaining a foothold is building a social network of its own - a collection of leaders and cadre who can offer support to its voting group and build a base with them. Their natural vote base is the LDF, and the actions of LDF (e.g. Sabarimala) should serve as fuel to cause people to move to BJP, but it still requires work because people would rather vote for a bad but still powerful LDF than a powerless state BJP.

Suraj ji & others please to go through this interview of BRP Bhaskar.
...
As a political observer, how do you look at Vellapally Natesan's efforts to unite the Hindus of Kerala as a political force?

This is not the first time that such an effort is being made to consolidate the Hindu political wing.

Mannath Padmanabhan and R Sankar, the two leaders of the prominent caste organisations, the Nair Service Society and the SNDP Yogam that speaks on behalf of the Ezhava community, made an effort way back in the 1950s and 1960s to bring all together under the Hindu Maha Mandalam.
The motivating factor was the general feeling among the political class that the Congress was getting controlled by the Christians. But the effort did not succeed.

Why didn't it succeed?
There are inherent contradictions between the position of the Nair community and the Ezhava community. The Nairs enjoyed certain benefits under the old caste system. Naturally they wanted to preserve that.

So whatever efforts they made were short lived. Later, when K Karunakaran was chief minister, the NSS and SNDP started sponsoring their own political parties because as caste organisations, they could not be on the political scene.
In fact, in 1947 at the time of Independence, the NSS and SNDP Yogam declared that they were withdrawing from the political field.So, during Karunakaran's time, the NSS created the National Democratic Party and the SNDP Yogam created the Social Republican Party. Both became allies of the UDF (United Democratic Front) at one time. They were in the Karunakaran ministry also. But this also didn't last too long.

Has the political atmosphere changed in anyway today?
The inherent contradictions remain. A few years ago, when Vellapally became the SNDP leader, he and the NSS secretary made an attempt, but that too did not bear fruit. Vellapally could not bring all under a Hindu umbrella.
I don't think Hindu consolidation is going to work in Kerala. It is very difficult to create a common Hindu identity because of the differences between the so-called upper castes and the lower castes.

B R P Bhaskar, 83, is one of the most respected journalists in Kerala. He started his career at The Hindu and went on work with The Statesman, Patriot, Deccan Herald, before he became the consultant editor of the Asianet television channel when it was launched in 1994.
Bhaskar, below, left, discussed with Shobha Warrier/Rediff.com the political changes expected in Kerala, which will go to the polls in a few months' time.

As long as the casteist leaders like sukumaran nair & his ilk & vellapally natesan & his ilk & their casteist orgs like NSS or SNDP or KPMS(minor role) are littering the Hindu society in Kerala ,
And as long as the casteists in positions of power play the one-upmanship games targeting each other's castes at the expense of Hinduism in Kerala,there wont be a Hindu consolidation.
The long history post independence is testimony.Then the narratives(on why the consolidation failed - laying the blame at the "other" & the BJP) used to be managed well by the casteists using the kerala media presstitutes - but now the facts are easily available and staring at one's face.

Its clear that even when their daughters are being love jihaded to become ISIS brides or they get daily dominated by the rabid abrahmics in both LDF & UDF the two Hindu caste leaders of Kerala continue to play caste based charades against each other.Even when Sabarimala is besieged by BIF this caste oneupmanship has been the recurrent undercurrent.

So the only "social network" BJP/RSS should build in Kerala must be a Hindutva social network.It is the only "social network" worth building.
History of BJP/Hindu consolidation in kerala is just a repeated replay of caste supremacists who couldn't countenance the "opposition caste" guys getting positions of power in BJP & they "walk out" back to their commies or congies claiming that they wont stay in a political party where "my caste" is not given primacy over the "other caste".This repeated failure to achieve Hindu consolidation in Kerala despite best efforts of Sangh/BJP is explained in the BRP Bhaskar interview i quoted above .

So eff them - BJP should stand firm in its ideology and allow only those leaders into its ranks who believe in the ideology of Hindutva & see a united future for the Hindus in Keralam beyond the Nair vs Ezhava dichotomy imposed by the selfserving casteist leaders since 60 years which reduced Kerala Hindus to their current abject state of less than 50% of population while the majority of Kerala Hindus live like Dhimmis suffering the insults & domination of the rabid abrahamics in power on their Hindu culture while forced to chant sickular praises.

BJP sticking to its principles & even getting zero seats in Kerala Parliamentary election(while gaining voteshare allover kerala) is acceptable than allowing one more cycle of Hindu consolidation to fail by which time it will be too late for Hindus in Kerala.So what ever seats BJP gets in Kerala this time is merely a waypoint to the larger goal of Hindu consolidation.

This is a good link to understand the background of casteist problem preventing Hindu consolidation in Kerala.
Last edited by Lilo on 19 Apr 2019 12:50, edited 7 times in total.

nachiket
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 19 Apr 2019 02:29

One interesting conclusion I draw from reading 5forty3 is that the NDA alliance in TN seems to be finding it difficult to seamlessly transfer votes just like MGB in UP. On paper both alliances have more than enough voteshare to sweep the respective states but it doesn't seem to be playing out like that.

That's bad news for the NDA in TN but good news for BJP in UP. Of course there are local factors like loss of Amma in TN and Yadav-Jatav relationship in UP that affect the results as well.

Overall he seems to be optimistic about BJP's performance in first 2 phases except in AP, Telangana (where it was a disaster as expected) and TN (somewhat unexpected).

The articles go into a lot of detail and I would encourage people to subscribe and read them.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 19 Apr 2019 03:00

nachiket wrote:
shravan wrote:
I always thought hindutva was coined by Savarkar

Well, whoever coined it, Bengal is the place it needs to find the most traction at this juncture. Nowhere else in the country are Hindus under such imminent threat (since the Kashmiri Hindus have already been driven out).


Don't think hindutva was coined in bengal. It was things like "vande mataram" precursor of bharat mata ki jai in the novel Ananda math. The book is ubashedly "hindu". hindutva is a curious word part urdu? with sanskrit suffix. Who used it first?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 19 Apr 2019 03:03

It does not matter who used it first is what I'm saying. Not pertinent to this thread anyway. I'm sure you agree that Bengal can do with a bit of Hindutva right now, no matter who used it first.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 19 Apr 2019 03:07

Dilbu is lost. And not heeding any pages. Maybe he/she got married and is enjoying his/her honeymoon or maybe its outcome.

Either way, we must acknowledge that Dilbu has gone down the annals of BRF *due to his/her* very necessary and timely whine. Let it be the only one so far!

I very humbly posit:

If Modi loses, all posters who whined on behalf of Dilbu must be summarily banned.

If Modi wins, then Modi has won despite and particularly inspite of whiners (other than Dilbu) on this forum. Hence Modi must be declared as true Karmayogi.

Everybody else will be wannabe Karmayogis and the whines will continue.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 19 Apr 2019 03:11

Suraj wrote:Rudradev, very interesting insights. I've been looking at this voteshare data too, having posted about it earlier in this thread a few days ago.

There have been only two elections where INC/UPA was not the highest voteshare recipient, regardless of who won the election - 1977 and 2014. Every other election, including NDA1 and various short term goverments, INC was by a long distance the largest voteshare gainer. This is a reflection of the fact that INC was the default 'national party vote'.

BJP on the other hand always had far higher voteshare to seatshare conversion - a blessing and a curse, because its voteshare is concentrated in areas where it wins most of its seats . However, if it loses out in FPTP margin in its stronghold regions to opposition alliances, It demonstrates dramatic drops in seatshare even with rather minimal loss in voteshare. This is the entire premise of mahathugbandhan.

The INC has generally managed to keep up voteshare while steadily eroding seatshare to alliance partners, except for 2009. It wasn't until 2014 that it saw catastrophic voteshare losses. During its previous nadir in 1999 for example 114 seats was accompanied by 28.3% voteshare ; BJP won 282 seats in 2014 on 31.4% voteshare!

BJP, until it has the national party default vote nationwide, has to always attempt to focus on the FPTP position in its stronghold regions, since it's vulnerable to vote transfer by opportunistic alliances. It therefore needs to appeal to a broadbased audience that gives it enough of a consolidated vote to be the first past the post.


Suraj, I find your conclusions compelling. Could you please link to your earlier post on this topic? I wasn't able to find it through the search feature.

I think we can sum up the electoral "value propositions" of the BJP/NDA and INC/UPA as follows.

BJP/NDA arose out of the Jan Sangh movement in combination with Samata Party and some Janata Party constituents who, all together, were instrumental in displacing INC in 1977. Over the last 30 years, BJP has had a loyal base of 115-120 constituencies where the citizenry were firmly aligned with it, probably on ideological grounds. Even with just a 19% national vote share (2009), these seats remained with the BJP. However, the additional 70-odd seats into which BJP expanded between 1996-2004 were less "sticky" and possible to flip, either to INC/UPA or to Others, with the right mix of caste coalitions and grievance campaigning. That is, by Mahathug-bandwagoning.

INC/UPA has a different value proposition. As you noted, the INC's share of the UPA in terms of seats has shrunk steadily from 1998 (141/144) to 1999 (115/135) to 2004 (145/181) to 2009 (206/262). However, the (INC + UPA) vote share has always been higher than anyone else's in the last 30 years until 2014. Even in 1999 the INC's vote share alone exceeded the BJP's by 4.5%.

So the INC's advantage is the fact of having a "reserve", if you like... a large but diffuse bank of votes distributed throughout the country (in contrast to the BJP with its firmly held but relatively few core constituencies). This could be related to the aura of INC as the "Natural Party of National Governance" (NPONG) as you point out. I think it may also have to do with the vast wealth and other resources that INC was able to hoard for itself over its 60 years in power (e.g. the bureaucracy, the judiciary, the academy, India Inc., the Lutyens Media... and the entire normative ecosystem that ensures, for example, that regional media often take their cue from the mood set in Lutyens).

In 2004, BJP was fighting a defensive battle against the INC NPONG and its casteist/regionalist allies, and lost. In 2009 BJP could not rally enough to present a viable alternative. But until 2014, the UPA always had that "reserve" of vote share in its back pocket... and it could leverage its position as the entity with the largest vote share to triangulate the two other entities (NDA and Others) against one another to secure favourable outcomes for itself. This has been true in every single election post (as you said) 1977.

In 2014, the viable alternative (and in fact, the only inspiring candidate) turned up in the person of Modi... this was something the INC/UPA had seen coming for 12 years and pulled out all the stops to sabotage. Modi is FAR more threatening to the INC/UPA than Vajpayee/Advani ever were, for precisely this reason: BJP/NDA under Modi actually has the potential to REPLACE the INC/UPA as the NPONG, cornering the largest nationwide vote share for itself into the indeterminate future.

So what will GE 2019 really be about? Obviously the seat count is important. However, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that NDA will land up with a comfortable majority, and perhaps even BJP will have over 272 by itself.

But the true battle in my view... the one with the most important long-term consequences for India... will be the battle for vote-share. In 2014, for the first time in its existence, the BJP/NDA topped the INC/UPA's vote share (though only by some 4 points). When the INC's apologists cry "moral victory", what they are doing is dog-whistling potential UPA allies and Mahathugs: "look, even with such few seats we still have the ability to drive vote share!" That, and that alone, is their value proposition.

If in 2019 the vote share of INC/UPA is utterly dwarfed by that of BJP/NDA... that will truly mark the end of the INC era. That is what it will really take to make Bharat "Congress-Mukth"... a demonstration that 2014 was not a freak occurrence like 1977, but a harbinger of the New Normal. That is what it will take to make not only Non-INC/Non-BJP "Other" politicians, but also the members of the Congress Ecosystem, recognize that the party is finally over for good.

And then, and only then, can the complete, comprehensive, and irreversible demolition of the toxic Congress Ecosystem proceed.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kati » 19 Apr 2019 03:25

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Singha wrote:The people bengal created the monster called cpim which transformed into tmc
Wb always has highest degree of voters being threatened and political violence all tighly controlled by state govt and not leaked to outside media


++1 Singhaji. You hit the nail on the head. It's the same goons running the show mostly. But under garb of TMC.

The dissonance we see is partly because some of the goons (intellectual and street, both) from the Left were left out in the field by Didi. That's why the tightly controlled narrative of no violence is breaking down.


Let me tell you all one thing -
Bengal is changing slowly....If not this time, next time for sure BJP will wrestle the power here....
Left's demise and Mamata's rise has been a blessing for Sangh in Bengal which saw its historic rise. Within two years of Left's fall, Sangh's number of shakas increased by 300%. Earlier, the Left systematically killed Sanghis, and put all sorts of roadblocks for Sangh's expansions. ....
Now, Mamtaz Begum is trying her best to counter Sangh's rise. But since her's is a one person party, and factional infighting is rising monotonically, many TMC insiders are getting disgusted. Hence it's just a matter of time for BJP to come to power. The more the turbulence happen, the more Mumtaz Begum will pander to the green, and that will turn more the Hindus against her. It may not be visible in urban areas, but for sure happening in rural areas.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kati » 19 Apr 2019 03:27

One more Bangladeshi Actor's visa cancelled

https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh ... tor-s-visa

Noor has been very popular in a successful TV serial Rani Rashmoni (who established the Dakshineshwar Kali Temple).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 19 Apr 2019 03:43

Rudradev:
Turnout history
BJP voteshare history
INC voteshare history
Rudradev wrote:If in 2019 the vote share of INC/UPA is utterly dwarfed by that of BJP/NDA... that will truly mark the end of the INC era. That is what it will really take to make Bharat "Congress-Mukth"... a demonstration that 2014 was not a freak occurrence like 1977, but a harbinger of the New Normal. That is what it will take to make not only Non-INC/Non-BJP "Other" politicians, but also the members of the Congress Ecosystem, recognize that the party is finally over for good.

That's essentially what I stated in the post you quoted too. BJP ought to be the one that gets the national party vote. The reason for this is the ease of alliance. INC doesn't manage to gain alliances despite just 44 seats because of some 'secular coalition' ethos. They get that power from their nationwide voteshare base. All any regional party needs to offer is the incremental voteshare for FPTP . Once BJP has the base voteshare, they will be more attractive for alliances. IMHO, all the 'sickular alliance' babble has nothing to do with sickular and everything to do with the ability to add base votes. BJP - with the NPONG vote - will be able to hoover up the small alliances all over that INC still has the ability to do with its still 20% NPONG national voteshare.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ashokk » 19 Apr 2019 04:00

PM Narendra Modi's interview to TOI
India’s ranking on Ease of Doing Business has risen dramatically, from 142 in 2014 to 77 now. And landmark reforms such as Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and GST have improved tax compliance. But red tape and regulatory bottlenecks still persist, and this leaves room for corruption. How do you plan to make the system truly corruption-free and citizen-friendly?
I am very surprised to see The Times of India acknowledge an achievement of our government in at least one half of the question. It would have been good if you had written now and then about our reforms and achievements, their impact, and informed people about it. Anyway, better late than never. I am thankful to you for recognising our work. :twisted:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby SaiK » 19 Apr 2019 05:16

Rudradev wrote:^^ If Modi ji loses onlee, :(( :(( :(( , we know whose fault it will be. Bunk marta hai saala.

Modi ji will never lose, Bharatiya's loss! He is not an ordinary politicians. He is a punyAtma

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby williams » 19 Apr 2019 05:19

As usual excellent interview by the Prime Minister. I hope Rahul ji can sit for an interview. That will seal the deal :lol:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kit » 19 Apr 2019 05:24

williams wrote:As usual excellent interview by the Prime Minister. I hope Rahul ji can sit for an interview. That will seal the deal :lol:


heheh :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 19 Apr 2019 05:25

williams wrote:As usual excellent interview by the Prime Minister. I hope Rahul ji can sit for an interview. That will seal the deal :lol:

His 2014 interview with Arnab was a disaster for him. Some good cartoons from back then -

Image

Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 19 Apr 2019 08:47

Terrifying that Mamata Begum would go to such an extent to appease the peacefuls. And only now is it even being shown in mainstream media.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nandakumar » 19 Apr 2019 08:58

ramana wrote:
vijayk wrote:The whole CON/CIA/ISI/NYT/WaPo and corrupt scum media has been bringing in venom on Sadhvi's nomination in Bhopal. Has she been acquitted? Is this necessary? Will the full hatred by MSM impact middle class voting?

How is it going to impact this in UP/MP/RJ?



The NIA has dropped the prosecution.
However judge has kept the case pending.
There is nothing to prosecute.

Judge is old timer Congress gang.

No, the judge did not keep the case pending. She was charged under two separate pieces of legislation. One, Maharashtra specific on organised crime (MACOA) and a 60s era central legislation on unlawful seditious activities such as asking for a separate Dravida Nadu, a crime. She was discharged in MACOA because the case fell apart when key witnesses retracted their testimony. But that didn't make the charges under the Central law go away. So the judge was technically in the right. As to why Mah govt didn't withdraw charges under the second, all these days is a mystery to me.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 19 Apr 2019 09:01

Tajinder Singh Bagga remains one of my favourites in the BJP camp. no punches pulled
Image

:D

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Deans » 19 Apr 2019 09:55

IndraD wrote:any one from Bangalore?
Over all voting turnout is not even 50% in three zones.
Why? And which way wind seems to be blowing in Blore?


I voted in B'lore central (Shivajinnagar) which had the lowest turnover of all the assembly segments, in the LS seat with the lowest t/o in phase 2 with the exception of Srinagar.

Accordingly to the data in the book `Verdict' - data is important given the antecedents of 1 of the authors, a low t/o has historically favoured the BJP as its cadres are more motivated to vote than `fence sitters'. The exception is when minorities vote en-masse.
This time the t/o was lower than 2014 and lower than the state election last year.
Shivajinagar has a very high Muslim voter base and some EJ Christian types. Cong Candidate is Muslim.
If minorities have stayed home (difficult to figure that out) , BJP has a fighting chance.
In the other B'lore seats, the lower t/o should favour the BJP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sridhar K » 19 Apr 2019 10:32

My sister lives in Bangalore. She transferred her voter ID to Bang this year through the online process. Her name was in showing in the Karnataka EC site but not in the National site. When she went to vote at BTM booth near her flat, the local official could not trace her in the list and asked to try other booths. She kept arguing showing the booth number in the site. Fortunately, her society mates were able to trace their names since it was in Kannada and her name was a few lines below in the list. She said that there were many like her having the problem.

Also maids in the apartment complex tried transferring their voter ID to Bangalore from their home towns, the state EC guys were rude and did not help. finally they got their ids transferred but was unable to trace their names in the booth. The common feedback is that peacefuls are giving royal treatment where the officials even go to their homes to facilitate. Bang has a lot of migrant population and perhaps there are challenges in them going to vote.

Shiv is his tweets has shown a few cases of NRis, tmobility of old people on such houses affecting the turnout

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 19 Apr 2019 11:47

Dr Praveen Patil
‏ @5Forty3

Stating this purely on numbers.
Despite all the reports of rigging, booth capturing and intimidation tactics by TMC

BJP has swept the first 2 phases of Bengal. Each and every seat, by considerable margin! #BOOM

(Shyama Prasad Mukherjee must be smiling somewhere)
========

holy **** !
even if they manage to get 40-0% of the 42 seats, that would be HUGE !

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 19 Apr 2019 11:49

Rahul M wrote:holy **** !
even if they manage to get 40-0% of the 42 seats, that would be HUGE !


It would be a miracle!! Dr. Patil has put his reputation on the line here. His confidence level must be really high. Or so I hope.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 19 Apr 2019 12:01

let us hope that this is true


Lok Sabha Election 2019 LIVE updates: Priyanka Chaturvedi resigns from all Congress posts, removes party name from Twitter bio


Priyanka Chaturvedi ✔ @priyankac19

Deeply saddened that lumpen goons get prefence in @incindia over those who have given their sweat&blood. Having faced brickbats&abuse across board for the party but yet those who threatened me within the party getting away with not even a rap on their knuckles is unfortunate.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 19 Apr 2019 12:08

Lok Sabha Polls: Sadhvi Pragya Thakur on Hemant Karkare


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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 19 Apr 2019 12:25

chetak wrote:let us hope that this is true


Lok Sabha Election 2019 LIVE updates: Priyanka Chaturvedi resigns from all Congress posts, removes party name from Twitter bio


Priyanka Chaturvedi ✔ @priyankac19

Deeply saddened that lumpen goons get prefence in @incindia over those who have given their sweat&blood. Having faced brickbats&abuse across board for the party but yet those who threatened me within the party getting away with not even a rap on their knuckles is unfortunate.

how does it matter ?

anyway, as someone on twitter wrote, this will be another natak, RaGa will intervene and take her back after some token disciplinary action against the offending partymen and media will sing paeans to the women rights activist RaGa and try to dominate the airwaves.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby suryag » 19 Apr 2019 13:01

Rangaraj Pandey didnt run any Exit polls in TN for lack of money but made an informal assessment on the situation by talking to his friends. His assessment is that DMK+ - 25 ADMK+ - 15 +/- 2(these two could go either way)

On assembly his assessment is 8, 8, 6(difficult to call)

If this is not victory for EPS what else is, damn the man brought ADMK from behind. Anyways, TTV seems to have been a very big factor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZXsnDIbFKU


Someone should help him setup a channel, the only sane nationalist voice in TN

Watch these and you can see how clearly he defends Modi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgpcqxKDEeM


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