2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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sudeepj
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 22 Apr 2019 21:46

Shanmukh jis post is a deeply pessimistic take.

1. In India, voters are not entrenched (like they are in the west), and a month is a long time in Indian politics. Its not correct to post projections from the recent past into this election.

2. Alliances are unable to transfer votes of their castes seamlessly. E.g. an caste based alliance needs to be 'real' on the ground social alliance as well. This is simply not true for middle castes/OBCs and dalit castes (Jatavs). Further more, the entire caste based arithmetic has been turned upside down by the political mobilization of non-Jatav SCs, and non Yadav OBCs in the North. Bihar & UP are prime examples of the same. So what used to be an OBC, SC, Muslim combination is now reduced to Jatav, Yadav, Muslim combination with significant friction in vote transfer to people from the 'other' caste.. After all, most dalit oppression on the ground happens by powerful OBC castes (and in many cases, muslims) that have taken over the state police and bureaucracy. This same successful experiment of smaller OBC, SC caste counter-mobilization will be repeated in Southern states where the grammar of social justice has been hijacked by a few dominant castes to their enormous benefit.

3. Finally, voters in India do not like to 'waste' their votes. They like to vote for what they perceive to be serious contenders. In reality, this means parties languish around 10-15% vote share for a while, before scoring 20-25% in some bypoll or panchayat poll, after which they are taken as serious contenders, and 'all of a sudden', they occupy the space of the main opposition and begin dominating the electoral map. As the BSP supremo, Bahan Susri Mayawati ji puts it, '..we fight the first election to lose it, we fight the second election to make some one else lose, and we fight the third time to win..'. In case where parties have dominated for several election cycles, such as the left used to in Bengal, or BJD in Orissa, now TMC again in Bengal - the accumulated anti incumbency over the years explodes into view as voters who had stayed home in the past out of fear, or lack of any option, come to the polling booths and express their displeasure.

On the other hand, the satta bazaar update is likely to be off by a bit, but not much. In particular, they appear a little optimistic in Andhra region, in Punjab, in Kerala.. but they appear to be underestimating in other areas such as Bihar. All in all, its a believable estimate, with some reservations.
Last edited by sudeepj on 22 Apr 2019 22:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 22 Apr 2019 21:47

Rahul Gandhi leadership is completely falling apart. Even in Karnataka Siddaramaiah good name saves the INC than RaGa leadership.

Congress state Legislature Party (CLP) is merging into TRS LP as 80% Congress MLAs defected to TRS.
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/ ... ctors.html

^ With that Congress Mukth Telangana and so Telugu states which was the original goal of TDP.

It may be better to carry these messages as campaign message to RJ, MP, MH , etc. to cut BJP losses.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 22 Apr 2019 22:02

Shanmukh wrote:
Rahul M wrote:and


seem to be mutually contradictory. you have given a break-up for possible seats in S, E & NE but not for the 50 seats that its supposed to lose.
you are saying BJP will lose 35+ seats from MP, RJ GJ, HR, PB, HP, UK & JK ?


In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20.
In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23.
In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15.
In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it is likely to be 18-19.
In 2014, BJP won 10/11 in Chhattisgarh. This time it is likely to be 3-4.
In 2014, BJP won 12/14 in Jharkhand. This time, it is likely to be 7-8.
In 2014, BJP won 27/29 in Madhya Pradesh. This time it is likely to be 22-23.


This itself adds up to ~35 seats on average. Of course, they are unlikely to win both in Goa, or win all 5 in Uttarakhand, 4 in Himachal, 2/3 in Punjab, etc. So, my loss of ~35 seats in the rest of India is rather conservative.


Please provide some basis for these estimates.. You appear to have made a simplistic assumption that BJP is likely to lose a few, '..since they are already maxed out..'. This is a convenient narrative being spun by the usual media types that has no relation to what is actually happening on the ground. I am fairly certain that Gujarat is likely to return 25-26 to BJP again, 22 in Raj is not unbelievable. While BJP will do worse in Bihar just because they are competing on fewer seats, NDA is likely to do a lot better simply because of the caste arithmetic. Kamalnath has already squandered his political capital by not fulfilling his poll promise of loan waivers.. (restricted to defaulting farmers) and this has caused a lot of backlash among the farmers.

Chattisgarh and Jharkhand are black holes to be honest.. I have no clue what is going on there.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 22 Apr 2019 22:09

Shanmukh wrote:In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20.
In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23.
In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15.
In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it is likely to be 18-19.
In 2014, BJP won 10/11 in Chhattisgarh. This time it is likely to be 3-4.
In 2014, BJP won 12/14 in Jharkhand. This time, it is likely to be 7-8.
In 2014, BJP won 27/29 in Madhya Pradesh. This time it is likely to be 22-23.


If the above (later numbers like 22-23) was in 2014, I would have believed it. In fact I went with the above numbers in 2014.

However 2019 is different. There is no "Congress wave" in Guj/Raj to claw back some 20% of seats. Guj/Raj are straight fights between BJP and CONgoons.

Bihar, the 17-23 alignment has been carefully coordinated. JDU is getting the secular vote in some seats where it would have been difficult for BJP. Further Bihar understands that this is a national vote and lately they have been voting in waves, so that 18 seats in Bihar unaccounted for last time may go into overall NDA kitty.

MP the CONgoon campaign has collapsed, serious infighting. Same in SP-BSP mahathugbandhan. No SP vote is going for BSP. Either it will sit out or go to 3rd party (read BJP). BSP vote will cause counter polarization.

Take a reverse look, will CONgoons get 40+? No. I am thinking they will be 20+. Left vote will barely cross double digits. Collapse in TMC vote. BJD vote is collapsing (they may get something like 9). TMC may be 20 or so. What about AAP? Gone with the wind.

So in worst case, BJP may be around 230 and in best case around 280. Of course I will also provide two outliers on upside, 300 and 320. I just do not see any consolidation in opposition votes (AP and TN being the outliers).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 22 Apr 2019 22:12

https://twitter.com/squintneon/status/1 ... 4653453312

Azam Khan crying in Rampur. He cried after the results of 2014 came out too.. Dabblers in seat projections etc. are going to be surprised at the outcome.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 22 Apr 2019 22:44

According to Dr. BB's trackers, the total seat projections and voteshares for BJP and NDA have both been slowly going up after each Phase. This indicates that the momentum keeps building for NDA day after day, and that the alliance is functioning smoothly.

As of now, he is projecting the NDA to have strong or moderate leads in well over a triple century of seats, and BJP about a dozen short of a majority on its own.

This does not include a fairly large number of "tossup" seats, many of which the NDA/BJP has a slender lead. Put those in the picture and it looks like the election result will be sealed ("purna bahumat" for BJP) with just a little more campaigning and Modimagic.

I am not associated with Dr. BB in any way, but I strongly recommend a subscription to his website since it dispels a lot of the fake "hawa" and speculations with hard data and analysis. Help the man out, and get your election fix for another whole month in the bargain !

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 22 Apr 2019 22:53

I've twice contributed to BB this GE cycle. Ultimately his projections are only as good as the data he can collect, and he can only do so well with funding. I'm not going to be one to wag fingers at him for something I could rather help him accomplish.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 22 Apr 2019 22:54

Suraj wrote:I've twice contributed to BB this GE cycle. Ultimately his projections are only as good as the data he can collect, and he can only do so well with funding. I'm not going to be one to wag fingers at him for something I could rather help him accomplish.


BB ?? :-( Benazir Bhutto.. ??

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby khatvaanga » 22 Apr 2019 23:02

sudeepj wrote:BB ?? :-( Benazir Bhutto.. ??


close.. 5Forty3 PP i believe.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 22 Apr 2019 23:02

going by who r gunning for CJI Gogoi's head Im quite alarmed.
The statement was endorsed by 33 eminent writers and activists, including Medha Patkar, Arundhati Roy, Aruna Roy, Kamla Bhasin, Bezwada Wilson, Anjali Bhardwaj, Yogendra Yadav, and Harsh Mander and Amnesty India Executive Director Aakar Patel

https://scroll.in/latest/920975/full-te ... sment-case

Some how CJI has riled up ecosystem big time!
It is either Rafael or an upcoming judgement on Gandhis

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 Apr 2019 23:07

KLNMurthy wrote:
Karan M wrote:Bottomline, elite Hindus are cowards and rest of them up are caught up with infighting over caste, a house divided..nothing seems to have changed since the days of the Afghans seeing multiple scattered Rajput campfires..:-(

Serious question: you say nothing has changed. Did they also have a BRF in those days?


We are a tiny pinprick in the vast ocean of the Indian electorate, that;s the issue. The Lalus, Mayawatis, the DMKs, NCPs and the Yadavs would not exist but for the caste/regional divide so deeply entrenched in the Hindu pysche.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 Apr 2019 23:09

IndraD wrote:going by who r gunning for CJI Gogoi's head Im quite alarmed.
The statement was endorsed by 33 eminent writers and activists, including Medha Patkar, Arundhati Roy, Aruna Roy, Kamla Bhasin, Bezwada Wilson, Anjali Bhardwaj, Yogendra Yadav, and Harsh Mander and Amnesty India Executive Director Aakar Patel

https://scroll.in/latest/920975/full-te ... sment-case

Some how CJI has riled up ecosystem big time!
It is either Rafael or an upcoming judgement on Gandhis


Or it was a preemptive shot across his bows to "show him his place". But if these worthies are all involved, now we can be certain that the accusation was cent per cent false.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby CRamS » 22 Apr 2019 23:15

As someone else pointed out, one point by ModiJi on nukes, the left Lutyen arse holes go berserk painting ModiJi as some nuke-brandishing mad man. And all this crap about "responsible member of international community' makes me throw up. Give me a f!king break. Yeah if we were indeed such a responsible member, what was the so called international community doing when jihadi pigLeT infested TSP was brandishing its nukes and daring India for a fight? We have seen the cache of economic goodies and Fsoals go their way, not to mention the India TSP equal equal moral equivalence that dates far back to what ModiJi said today.

It seems that every-time ModiJi utters the phrase "TSP terror", the Lutyen Cong ecosystem shits in their pants because in their minds they think Hindus will feel proud and by default that would polarize Hindus to vote for BJP against Muslims. Thats their real fear.

Then we have useless ex diplomats like K.C.Singh and his ilk are either naive or singing somebody else's agenda in making a mountain out of a mole for what ModiJi said.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 22 Apr 2019 23:17

sudeepj wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:
In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20.
In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23.
In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15.
In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it is likely to be 18-19.
In 2014, BJP won 10/11 in Chhattisgarh. This time it is likely to be 3-4.
In 2014, BJP won 12/14 in Jharkhand. This time, it is likely to be 7-8.
In 2014, BJP won 27/29 in Madhya Pradesh. This time it is likely to be 22-23.


This itself adds up to ~35 seats on average. Of course, they are unlikely to win both in Goa, or win all 5 in Uttarakhand, 4 in Himachal, 2/3 in Punjab, etc. So, my loss of ~35 seats in the rest of India is rather conservative.


Please provide some basis for these estimates.. You appear to have made a simplistic assumption that BJP is likely to lose a few, '..since they are already maxed out..'. This is a convenient narrative being spun by the usual media types that has no relation to what is actually happening on the ground. I am fairly certain that Gujarat is likely to return 25-26 to BJP again, 22 in Raj is not unbelievable. While BJP will do worse in Bihar just because they are competing on fewer seats, NDA is likely to do a lot better simply because of the caste arithmetic. Kamalnath has already squandered his political capital by not fulfilling his poll promise of loan waivers.. (restricted to defaulting farmers) and this has caused a lot of backlash among the farmers.

Chattisgarh and Jharkhand are black holes to be honest.. I have no clue what is going on there.


Losses in RJ, MP, CG, (assembly elections data can be basis) and UP (peaked theory - SP+BSP>BJP in good number of seats). Gujarat may be okay but MH is also concern. If you go by conservative numbers, expecting BJP way short of majority and NDA closer to majority which is reasonable expectation and also can have statistical/data analysis basis (of course one can say the famous saying - "lies, damned lies, and statistics")

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shanmukh » 22 Apr 2019 23:26

sudeepj wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:
In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20.
In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23.
In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15.
In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it is likely to be 18-19.
In 2014, BJP won 10/11 in Chhattisgarh. This time it is likely to be 3-4.
In 2014, BJP won 12/14 in Jharkhand. This time, it is likely to be 7-8.
In 2014, BJP won 27/29 in Madhya Pradesh. This time it is likely to be 22-23.


This itself adds up to ~35 seats on average. Of course, they are unlikely to win both in Goa, or win all 5 in Uttarakhand, 4 in Himachal, 2/3 in Punjab, etc. So, my loss of ~35 seats in the rest of India is rather conservative.


Please provide some basis for these estimates.. You appear to have made a simplistic assumption that BJP is likely to lose a few, '..since they are already maxed out..'. This is a convenient narrative being spun by the usual media types that has no relation to what is actually happening on the ground. I am fairly certain that Gujarat is likely to return 25-26 to BJP again, 22 in Raj is not unbelievable. While BJP will do worse in Bihar just because they are competing on fewer seats, NDA is likely to do a lot better simply because of the caste arithmetic. Kamalnath has already squandered his political capital by not fulfilling his poll promise of loan waivers.. (restricted to defaulting farmers) and this has caused a lot of backlash among the farmers.

Chattisgarh and Jharkhand are black holes to be honest.. I have no clue what is going on there.


I am going by the estimates published by 3 separate surveys, and have taken the mean for the BJP from among them [with the exception of Assam, Bengal, and the four south Indian states of Karnataka, Andhra, Kerala and TN, where I have access to on ground information coming from the different parties. In these states, I am going by my own estimates. Further, I am going by my own estimate in the Ladakh seat of Jammu and Kashmir, where I have access to on ground information, thanks to a project I am working on.]

For the rest of my estimates, please to see these:
https://www.indiatvnews.com/elections/l ... vey-512921

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... dhi/396628

https://www.newsnation.in/election/lok- ... 16709.html

To give you a rough rule of thumb from my own experience, if you are demanding more than 80% of the seats from any state for the ruling party, you are being overly optimistic. There are always a few losses. Last time, the BJP won nearly everything they had a chance of winning in the north, centre and west of India. To ask them to do it again is being overly demanding.

As for West Bengal, the BJP still has the manpower only to man about ~75% of the booths. They have made a tactical choice to concentrate their available mobile manpower in the seats where they have the best chances. They had listed 15 seats where they believed that they had a good choice and had focussed on those 15. Even the BJP workers are optimistic in these seats only. Assuming a 80% strike rate [which is very generous, BTW], BJP will get 12 seats this time.

Same thing is happening in Kerala. For instance, the BJP has a very decent candidate in Attingal [Sobha Surendran], but the bulk of the Attingal BJP workers are working for Kummanam in the neighbouring Thiruvananthapuram where the BJP has a far better chance - this one, BTW, is almost certain barring a miracle or massive cross voting from CPM to Congress (not likely as no one can cross vote this massively). So poor Sobha is being left out in the cold. She will still win ~20% of the vote, but it is not enough to topple the Congress/Left, where one needs 35% vote. BJP is just building up its organisation in large areas of Kerala.

Another good rule of thumb - no matter how massive the wave you have, don't expect >10-15% swing in your favour compared to your previous best in a state. It just doesn't happen that way, certainly not on a large scale [individual seats can show huge change due to local factors - like BJP getting massive support in Pathanamthitta this time]. To put things in perspective, the massive Ram Wave in 1991 gave the BJP ~10-15% swing in many states. Similarly, the Modi wave gave the BJP a 10-15% swing in many states. And given that BJP was the ruling party for the last 5 years, there will be failed promises, local problems unattended, anger against local MPs, etc which just cannot be wished away. Demanding such a massive wave in favour of the ruling party is even more difficult [unless there are extraordinary circumstances like Indira Gandhi in 1972 in Bengal, where she just wiped the floor with the Left reducing them to a non-entity after the Bangladesh war].

Please understand that BJP is starting from an extremely low base in many states. Demanding that the change be massive enough to give you 35% vote [which is the typical amount needed in triangular contests] from ~10% is an extremely daunting task.

In the two Telugu states, BJP was in an alliance with TDP until recently. They just didn't get a chance to grow, and to be honest, their leaders in Telangana and Andhra are just not the kind of material that can get people to follow them.

In Ladakh, the population is ~55%Hindu+Buddhist, ~45% Muslim. Last time, BJP won because two powerful Muslim independent candidates cut deep into the Congress Muslim vote bank. And the Congress candidate has a personal Buddhist base. Given that the Buddhist vote is going to split to some extent and the bulk of the Muslim vote will go with the Congress, the BJP candidate has an uphill task. Also, in Ladakh, BJP is a deeply divided house, with the previous BJP MP resigning last year. Can the BJP repeat its last time's victory? Possible. Is it likely? No.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 Apr 2019 23:26

CRamS wrote:As someone else pointed out, one point by ModiJi on nukes, the left Lutyen arse holes go berserk painting ModiJi as some nuke-brandishing mad man. And all this crap about "responsible member of international community' makes me throw up. Give me a f!king break. Yeah if we were indeed such a responsible member, what was the so called international community doing when jihadi pigLeT infested TSP was brandishing its nukes and daring India for a fight? We have seen the cache of economic goodies and Fsoals go their way, not to mention the India TSP equal equal moral equivalence that dates far back to what ModiJi said today.

It seems that every-time ModiJi utters the phrase "TSP terror", the Lutyen Cong ecosystem shits in their pants because in their minds they think Hindus will feel proud and by default that would polarize Hindus to vote for BJP against Muslims. Thats their real fear.

Then we have useless ex diplomats like K.C.Singh and his ilk are either naive or singing somebody else's agenda in making a mountain out of a mole for what ModiJi said.


kc singh is a separatist with an axe to grind against Modi.

Don't expect anything else from him. His constipated mindset has been frozen in time since zail singh's tenure as president.

He considers himself to be one of the sikh "intellectuals", as if there were no one else to fill that post

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shanmukh » 22 Apr 2019 23:28

IndraD wrote:can this be atoned with gains in Bengal, Odisha, South India & NE?


They can gain around 25-30 seats from the four regions [this is the best case]. It is hard for them to make up more than that.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manu » 22 Apr 2019 23:44

Even in your somewhat conservative analysis: -50 in existing strongholds and +30 in virgin territory: That Puts BJP at ~260 with NDA at comfortable 272+ position..? So is Panic called for?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shanmukh » 22 Apr 2019 23:49

Manu wrote:Even in your somewhat conservative analysis: -50 in existing strongholds and +30 in virgin territory: That Puts BJP at ~260 with NDA at comfortable 272+ position..? So is Panic called for?


Panic? Where did I suggest panic? I just commented that the numbers of the satta bazaar that were published by Ramana-garu were overly optimistic. BJP should still be in the ~250 range, assuming that nothing goes wrong in UP [this is one unpredictable state].

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 23 Apr 2019 00:02

@Shanmukh ji, thanks for explaining the basis for your estimates. I can understand how you reached there. My personal feeling is:

1. You cant trust the established pollsters, the only thing that is to guess about their projections is, by how much they are going to be wrong. At best, they get the 'directionality' of the outcome right, vote percentages etc. are a mugs game with this set of people. Now, statistical polling is well understood.. one only needs to randomize the sampling properly to get the result correct. Why do these people fail time and again? I feel, this is because they are all biased and cook up numbers to influence the elections one way or the other. Its also bad for the TV channels that use their services if the results are 'known' in advance. For them, its better if the public is on tenterhooks and keeps consuming their contents. The only pollsters whose estimates can be taken seriously are the new comers, who have to 'prove' their worth and develop a brand name. Finally, estimating polls is only a part of the business for these people. Most of their money is made with corporate surveys, brand surveys, internal surveys for political parties etc.

2. The time when simple caste arithmetic was valid is long gone and parties are doing 'micro targeting'. This is particularly true with increasing prosperity and exposure, less so for castes that are still poor, e.g. Jatav. This is the reason Nitish Kumar with a 2% Kurmi votebank is the CM of Bihar, and LJP with a 6% Paswan votebank is the single most important catch in Bihar. With increasing prosperity, there is significant cross voting of Yadavs, less so for Jatavs. There are also other tricks, 'vote katwas' (vote cutters etc.). Well endowed political parties routinely sponsor independent and minor candidates to cut the votes of the other party. E.g. Shivpal Yadav is running on BJP money, while Raj Thackeray is running (he is not, but he is campaigning) on Pawar and Congress money. This further complicates estimates that go - '..55% of the population of this place is Muslim, therefore XYZ is going to lose..'.

3. Indian elections are not run JUST on party infrastructure.. In parts of India, it is true, in other parts, there are individuals who have their own infrastructure based on caste/kinship ties, professional ties and so on. These people can run from any party symbol and be significant/serious contenders. Some times they run to win, at other times to 'cut the votes' of the other party and so on. There are a few hundred such people across India and their feudal nature means, at crucial times, they will switch sides. All of the time, their motivation is money and power.. You need to track what these people are doing and which way they are 'bending'. They are very accurate weather vanes.

4. Finally, the 2014 results happened at the culmination of a political process. Just as the enduring Nitshwa rule in Bihar happened as a culmination of a political process.. Just as Andhra region politics is the culmination of a political process.. etc. etc. etc. I see no reason to think that the political process of that resulted in 2014 has changed. Anti incumbency, local issues etc. matter, but within the context of that political process. The USHV process (TM Praveen Patil) is a real thing. Every atrocity, every act of disrespect only cements it further. Of course, there are grass roots workers, thinkers, communicators who work for it with all they have. I wont belabor the point, but I see a marginal slide in UP in areas where the local demography, local factors come together fortuitously for UPA.. I see expansion in new geographies elsewhere. There is a reason why Mandya is seeing violence before voting.. Why there are reports of specific demographies being deleted from voting rolls.. There is a reason why Momota has unleashed such violence.. There is a reason why Rahul ji is making a virtue out of necessity.. All of this points to the 2014 political process expanding its footprint, not reducing or taking a breather. Thanks for reading.. and I am sure the next month is going to give all of us reasons to be ecstatic and be in the pits of gloom.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Y I Patel » 23 Apr 2019 00:05

shanmukh

I would have agreed with you before the first phase, but with the understanding that I will firm up my guess after looking at the polling percentage for Gujarat.

Why? A turnout in Guj on par with last GE is for me an indication that core support is still intact. If it is intact then I would not assume erosion of more than 10% on previous countrywide haul. IOW a loss of about 28 seats under conservative assumptions. I think your estimates for seat gains elsewhere are good, so overall I would hazard that BJP only will end up around where it was last time or maybe a bit more.

If turnout is more than last time, I would take that as an indicator of a reenergized base and would project 295+

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby M_Joshi » 23 Apr 2019 00:15

Shanmukh wrote:
Rahul M wrote:and


seem to be mutually contradictory. you have given a break-up for possible seats in S, E & NE but not for the 50 seats that its supposed to lose.
you are saying BJP will lose 35+ seats from MP, RJ GJ, HR, PB, HP, UK & JK ?


In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20.
In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23.
In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15.
In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it is likely to be 18-19.
In 2014, BJP won 10/11 in Chhattisgarh. This time it is likely to be 3-4.
In 2014, BJP won 12/14 in Jharkhand. This time, it is likely to be 7-8.
In 2014, BJP won 27/29 in Madhya Pradesh. This time it is likely to be 22-23.

This itself adds up to ~35 seats on average. Of course, they are unlikely to win both in Goa, or win all 5 in Uttarakhand, 4 in Himachal, 2/3 in Punjab, etc. So, my loss of ~35 seats in the rest of India is rather conservative.


IndraD wrote:can this be atoned with gains in Bengal, Odisha, South India & NE?


Image

This map from 2014 elections. Congress got majority seats from NE, Kar & Kerala. NE & Kar are gone in this election. Even Amethi seat is gone in UP. Even is they get a few seats in Raj, Chhatisgarh, MP etc then they are not breaching their 2014 tally under any circumstances. BJP on the other hand even after losing 35+ seats in previous gained seats, will breach WB, NE & Orrisa & better the last time's tally in Kar/TN/Kerala. So net 35+ here. Also in northern states who will the BJP loose to in Raj/MP/Guj/Chattisgarh? To Congress? I really doubt if Congress can manage more than 7-8 seats total in these 4 states. UP is the only trump card here & if the reports of subdued Muslim activity & immiscible SP/BSP/RDL vote banks means BJP can stomp through in UP as well. From personal experience I can say that people are more awakened now of looming danger if Modi doesn't come back. E.g. one person who voted AAP in 2014 is afraid of Green takeover if Modi doesn't come back. So there's hope, still.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 23 Apr 2019 00:35

M_Joshi wrote:....

if the reports of subdued Muslim activity & immiscible SP/BSP/RDL vote banks means BJP can stomp through in UP as well. From personal experience I can say that people are more awakened now of looming danger if Modi doesn't come back. E.g. one person who voted AAP in 2014 is afraid of Green takeover if Modi doesn't come back. So there's hope, still.


Thank you for using that precise word. SP, BSP, RLD represent opposing political forces. Merely because some thekedar and vote brokers got together, does not mean their caste groupings will coalesce. Further, while in the 90s, BSP represented a rainbow coalition of dalits - today it is a Jatav party, rest of the dalits have long abandoned Mayawati as arrogant, a caste-ist favoring Jatavs herself, corrupt to boot. Similarly with SP, while in the 90s, they represented OBCs, today they are a Yadav party. Rest of the OBCs have abandoned them. Even many Yadavs have abandoned them, as the caste based grouping first becomes a single caste grouping, then a single extended family grouping. RLD is only a factor in western UP.. and Chaudhari Charan Singh's memories cant sway Jats.. who are famously grounded, nationalistic people. The reality of social life in the villages is such that even the single castes these parties represent - are violently opposed to each other. They will vote for a 'Hindu' candidate, but not for the opponent caste grouping.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby gakakkad » 23 Apr 2019 01:19

sudeepj wrote:
M_Joshi wrote:....

if the reports of subdued Muslim activity & immiscible SP/BSP/RDL vote banks means BJP can stomp through in UP as well. From personal experience I can say that people are more awakened now of looming danger if Modi doesn't come back. E.g. one person who voted AAP in 2014 is afraid of Green takeover if Modi doesn't come back. So there's hope, still.


Thank you for using that precise word. SP, BSP, RLD represent opposing political forces. Merely because some thekedar and vote brokers got together, does not mean their caste groupings will coalesce. Further, while in the 90s, BSP represented a rainbow coalition of dalits - today it is a Jatav party, rest of the dalits have long abandoned Mayawati as arrogant, a caste-ist favoring Jatavs herself, corrupt to boot. Similarly with SP, while in the 90s, they represented OBCs, today they are a Yadav party. Rest of the OBCs have abandoned them. Even many Yadavs have abandoned them, as the caste based grouping first becomes a single caste grouping, then a single extended family grouping. RLD is only a factor in western UP.. and Chaudhari Charan Singh's memories cant sway Jats.. who are famously grounded, nationalistic people. The reality of social life in the villages is such that even the single castes these parties represent - are violently opposed to each other. They will vote for a 'Hindu' candidate, but not for the opponent caste grouping.


I have one concern about the subdued Muslim vote bank. Could it possibly be that Muslim men are preventing women from voting? There was a concern among madarssa clerics that 3 talaq abolition was a popular move among muslim women and that would make them inclined to vote for bjp. By preventing muslim women from voting they would prevent bjp votes.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby CRamS » 23 Apr 2019 01:34

Guys, legal question. Can a party change its alliance commitment after an election? Reason I ask is because I am truly suspicious of Nitish Kumar & Co especially when I hear that sanctimonious Pawan Varma speak. It seems to me that he is really not comfortable being associated with BJP.

So my question is if there is a hung verdict and there is chance that both BJP-led alliance and thugbandhan have an equal chance of conjuring up the magic # of 272, can one of the alliance partners change their stand en mass? I can't rule out Nitish Kumar jumping ship with the likes of Pawan Varma as part of his inner circle. I like few guys from Nitishwa's camp like Ajay Alok, and another guy (forget his name) who once took I believe Pappu mouthpiece Sreenivasan Jain to the cleaners when the latter made the standard bogus Lutyen allegation over 'politicization of armed forces' by ModiJi post Balakot.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 23 Apr 2019 01:40

gakakkad wrote:
sudeepj wrote:

Thank you for using that precise word. SP, BSP, RLD represent opposing political forces. Merely because some thekedar and vote brokers got together, does not mean their caste groupings will coalesce. Further, while in the 90s, BSP represented a rainbow coalition of dalits - today it is a Jatav party, rest of the dalits have long abandoned Mayawati as arrogant, a caste-ist favoring Jatavs herself, corrupt to boot. Similarly with SP, while in the 90s, they represented OBCs, today they are a Yadav party. Rest of the OBCs have abandoned them. Even many Yadavs have abandoned them, as the caste based grouping first becomes a single caste grouping, then a single extended family grouping. RLD is only a factor in western UP.. and Chaudhari Charan Singh's memories cant sway Jats.. who are famously grounded, nationalistic people. The reality of social life in the villages is such that even the single castes these parties represent - are violently opposed to each other. They will vote for a 'Hindu' candidate, but not for the opponent caste grouping.


I have one concern about the subdued Muslim vote bank. Could it possibly be that Muslim men are preventing women from voting? There was a concern among madarssa clerics that 3 talaq abolition was a popular move among muslim women and that would make them inclined to vote for bjp. By preventing muslim women from voting they would prevent bjp votes.


These are all fanciful conspiracy theories.. Bottom line is, there is no protest vote against the BJP/NDA.. Most BJP leaders have been fairly measured in their conduct. Large govt. benefits have reached Muslims as well. They also dont regard MahaGathbandhan leadership as serious/viable contenders.. So why bother to vote at all.. Azam Khan crying bitter tears in Rampur tells its own story. In theory, with 50+% Muslims, with a loud motor mouth like Azam Khan, just how would Jayaprada be a challenger in Rampur? Yet not only she is, she is making this chap cry.. Reason is significant Shia population in Rampur and other factors that may not be easily visible to outsiders.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 23 Apr 2019 01:40

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 995013.cms

Youth does surgical strike on Diggi

When Singh asked the people assembled there if they had received the promised amount in their accounts, a youngster raised his hand and got promptly invited on the stage by the veteran Congressman.

"Tumhare khate me aa gaye...aa jao...aa jao...idhar aa jao. Account number le aao tumahra. Hum tumhara nagrik abhinandan karenge. "Tumhare khate me 15 lakh aa gaye. Aa jao beta, idhar aa jao (Come here. Bring your account number. I will publicly felicitate you. You got Rs 15 lakh in your account)," Singh said.

However, the red-shirted youth, once on the stage, started praising the prime minister over surgical strike, leading to peals of laughter among the crowd, but leaving Congress leaders present at the event red-faced.

"Surgical strike kar diya Modiji ne. Atankvadiyo ko mara (Modi conducted surgical strike, killed terrorists)," the youth said on the stage. :D

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 23 Apr 2019 01:42

Pappini from CONgoons riled up now because of work done by Smt. Smriti Irani.

This Pappini famously said 5 years back "Smriti Who?"

https://twitter.com/ANINewsUP/status/11 ... 53/video/1

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra,says,"Ye Smriti Irani ji yahan aai aur unhone joote baante ye kehne ke liye ki inke pas joote bhi nahi hai pehene ke liye. Ye soch rahi hain ki Rahul ji ka apmaan kar rahi hai, ye kar rahi hain Amethi ki janta ka apmaan."


Translation: "This Smriti Irani Ji came here and distributed shoes to say that this people do not even have shoes to wear. She is thinking that (with this action) she is humiliating Rahul'ji, she is humiliating the people of Amethi.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 23 Apr 2019 01:46

CRamS wrote:Guys, legal question. Can a party change its alliance commitment after an election? Reason I ask is because I am truly suspicious of Nitish Kumar & Co especially when I hear that sanctimonious Pawan Varma speak. It seems to me that he is really not comfortable being associated with BJP...


Pavan Verma is a mouth for hire. He is not part of any inner circle.. To understand Congress gotra politics in India, you have to realize there are state leaders, and there are state-less leaders (paraphrasing Giani Zail Singh). Nitish is a Congress gotra leader and is a state leader. To understand Nitish's behavior, you have to understand Bihar state politics. This is still run on caste combinations, and Nitish (Non Yadav OBC, non Jatav SC), BJP (upper caste, Bhumihar, non Jatav SC) is an unbeatable combination and ranged against Yadav+Muslim votes. Nitish will never make the mistake of inviting his own political demise by jumping ship again. To answer your question, nothing stops a party from changing their alliance commitment.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 23 Apr 2019 01:49

CRamS wrote:Guys, legal question. Can a party change its alliance commitment after an election? Reason I ask is because I am truly suspicious of Nitish Kumar & Co especially when I hear that sanctimonious Pawan Varma speak. It seems to me that he is really not comfortable being associated with BJP.

Any party can join or drop out of an alliance at any time. CBN dropped out of the NDA in the middle of the term. And I don't know how you forgot the infamous episode of Amma withdrawing her support to the NDA government in 1999 leading to Vajpayee losing the no-confidence motion by 1 vote.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 23 Apr 2019 02:09

Does anyone else think something smells here?

https://www.mynation.com/video/india-ne ... ing-pqcozw

5 JDS workers among dead in Sri Lanka blasts, 2 missing


22, Apr 2019, 12:34 PM IST

Bengaluru: Seven JD(S) workers who travelled to Sri Lanka on a vacation on April 20 were missing after the serial blasts in the country. Among them two members, KG Hanumantharayappa and Rangappa are dead, confirmed the tweet by external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj. They were staying at Shangri-La Hotel in Colombo, where a bomb went off on April 21.

Apart from the two, reports state that JDS workers Ramesh, Laxmi Narayan and Shivakumar are also dead. Puttaraju and Maregowda, also JDS workers, are still missing.

The death toll of the bomb blasts in Sri Lanka has now reached 290.

Expressing the shock over the incident, JDS leader and chief minister Kumaraswamy said, "I am shocked to hear that a seven-member team of JDS workers from Karnataka who were touring Colombo has gone missing after the bomb blasts in Colombo. Two of them are feared killed in the terror strike. I am in constant touch with the Indian High Commission on the reports of those missing."

The seven-members team had left for a vacation after campaigning for Congress leader Veerappa Moily, alliance candidate from Chikkaballapura Lok Sabha constituency.


Ok, so there's an election in full swing with half of Karnataka yet to go to the polls.

But seven (!) JDS workers decide that it's time for a little vacation. All of them travel together. To Sri Lanka. Without family or friends, but supposedly on holiday. And then this happens.

Could be coincidence that they were all staying at the same hotel when it was attacked. However, I am convinced that Pakistan/ISI and Indian National Congress both had something to do with the Sri Lanka events of Sunday. I wonder if the deaths of these JDS workers are connected somehow.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 23 Apr 2019 02:11

KL Dubey wrote:According to Dr. BB's trackers, the total seat projections and voteshares for BJP and NDA have both been slowly going up after each Phase. This indicates that the momentum keeps building for NDA day after day, and that the alliance is functioning smoothly.

As of now, he is projecting the NDA to have strong or moderate leads in well over a triple century of seats, and BJP about a dozen short of a majority on its own.

This does not include a fairly large number of "tossup" seats, many of which the NDA/BJP has a slender lead. Put those in the picture and it looks like the election result will be sealed ("purna bahumat" for BJP) with just a little more campaigning and Modimagic.

I am not associated with Dr. BB in any way, but I strongly recommend a subscription to his website since it dispels a lot of the fake "hawa" and speculations with hard data and analysis. Help the man out, and get your election fix for another whole month in the bargain !


Just so that it is propah and good form, I say

Modi will lose only. :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shanmukh » 23 Apr 2019 02:16

Rudradev wrote:Does anyone else think something smells here?

https://www.mynation.com/video/india-ne ... ing-pqcozw

5 JDS workers among dead in Sri Lanka blasts, 2 missing


22, Apr 2019, 12:34 PM IST

Bengaluru: Seven JD(S) workers who travelled to Sri Lanka on a vacation on April 20 were missing after the serial blasts in the country. Among them two members, KG Hanumantharayappa and Rangappa are dead, confirmed the tweet by external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj. They were staying at Shangri-La Hotel in Colombo, where a bomb went off on April 21.

Apart from the two, reports state that JDS workers Ramesh, Laxmi Narayan and Shivakumar are also dead. Puttaraju and Maregowda, also JDS workers, are still missing.

The death toll of the bomb blasts in Sri Lanka has now reached 290.

Expressing the shock over the incident, JDS leader and chief minister Kumaraswamy said, "I am shocked to hear that a seven-member team of JDS workers from Karnataka who were touring Colombo has gone missing after the bomb blasts in Colombo. Two of them are feared killed in the terror strike. I am in constant touch with the Indian High Commission on the reports of those missing."

The seven-members team had left for a vacation after campaigning for Congress leader Veerappa Moily, alliance candidate from Chikkaballapura Lok Sabha constituency.


Ok, so there's an election in full swing with half of Karnataka yet to go to the polls.

But seven (!) JDS workers decide that it's time for a little vacation. All of them travel together. To Sri Lanka. Without family or friends, but supposedly on holiday. And then this happens.

Could be coincidence that they were all staying at the same hotel when it was attacked. However, I am convinced that Pakistan/ISI and Indian National Congress both had something to do with the Sri Lanka events of Sunday. I wonder if the deaths of these JDS workers are connected somehow.


Rudradev-acharya,
The names of the two - Puttaraju and Maregowda - suggest that they were from south Karnataka and had just seen the election completed. The remaining 14 seats are all from North Karnataka and very few are being contested by JD(S). They might have gone on vacation after their seats had finished the election. This is not to deny that you have a point about a bunch of them going on vacation at an ... interesting time, without family or friends. But there is an alternative explanation.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KLNMurthy » 23 Apr 2019 03:25

Karan M wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:Serious question: you say nothing has changed. Did they also have a BRF in those days?


We are a tiny pinprick in the vast ocean of the Indian electorate, that;s the issue. The Lalus, Mayawatis, the DMKs, NCPs and the Yadavs would not exist but for the caste/regional divide so deeply entrenched in the Hindu pysche.

Sometimes small groups leverage themselves into a revolution. Pre-revolution Soviet communist party was quite small iirc. Small number of Italian tech guys manipulated the system to become coalition partners. Small number of CIA-pasands do color revolutions. Small number of Russians manipulated the US elections. Small number of evangelicals are changing entire Indian culture. Etc., etc.


If not BRF, another small intelligent group with political vision and ambition can change the course of things.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KLNMurthy » 23 Apr 2019 03:28

OmkarC wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/youth-does-surgical-strike-on-digvijaya-at-poll-rally/articleshow/68995013.cms

Youth does surgical strike on Diggi

When Singh asked the people assembled there if they had received the promised amount in their accounts, a youngster raised his hand and got promptly invited on the stage by the veteran Congressman.

"Tumhare khate me aa gaye...aa jao...aa jao...idhar aa jao. Account number le aao tumahra. Hum tumhara nagrik abhinandan karenge. "Tumhare khate me 15 lakh aa gaye. Aa jao beta, idhar aa jao (Come here. Bring your account number. I will publicly felicitate you. You got Rs 15 lakh in your account)," Singh said.

However, the red-shirted youth, once on the stage, started praising the prime minister over surgical strike, leading to peals of laughter among the crowd, but leaving Congress leaders present at the event red-faced.

"Surgical strike kar diya Modiji ne. Atankvadiyo ko mara (Modi conducted surgical strike, killed terrorists)," the youth said on the stage. :D

How do they let Congress get away with flatly lying that Modi promised 15L to everyone?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Apr 2019 03:39

OmkarC wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/youth-does-surgical-strike-on-digvijaya-at-poll-rally/articleshow/68995013.cms

Youth does surgical strike on Diggi

"Surgical strike kar diya Modiji ne. Atankvadiyo ko mara (Modi conducted surgical strike, killed terrorists)," the youth said on the stage. :D


Saw the video - hilarious. It is quite possible that a good number of attendees of INC rallies are there mainly for the fun and maybe get a freebie.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 23 Apr 2019 05:02

https://thewire.in/politics/rahul-gandh ... ndhan-fail

why is this piece of garbage (Raghu Karnad) already crying like a beaten *****?

You Had One Job, Rahul Gandhi

By trying to defeat Modi by winning over the public instead of winning over a united opposition, the Congress president has made a mistake that could reverberate for decades.


Indira’s lost lessons

At the heart of this losing strategy is, it seems, an error of identification. Rahul Gandhi was raised in the afterglow of his father’s lineage, and he sees his legacy coming from Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, who were practically deified in the eyes of the Indian electorate. Today, however, it is Modi who campaigns from on high, his face imprinted in the public imagination.

Rahul’s real political legacy is his mother’s.



Today, it is largely in pieces, at the feet of the figure of Rahul Gandhi on the stump. There he stands, challenging Modi in the presidential format – his every word distorted or drowned by mass-media manipulation – making high-minded promises he will not have a chance to deliver.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Apr 2019 05:17

KL Dubey wrote:
OmkarC wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/youth-does-surgical-strike-on-digvijaya-at-poll-rally/articleshow/68995013.cms

Youth does surgical strike on Diggi

"Surgical strike kar diya Modiji ne. Atankvadiyo ko mara (Modi conducted surgical strike, killed terrorists)," the youth said on the stage. :D


Saw the video - hilarious. It is quite possible that a good number of attendees of INC rallies are there mainly for the fun and maybe get a freebie.


It was funny. He should have said, nahi, kareeb bees lakh mille! Then continue on as he did.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Apr 2019 05:35

Well dawgs, it be "Super Tuesday" on da sweet earth of India.

Phase 3, 115 seats.

April Twenny Three.

Could be the decisive dayte of dis here election.

As I had hoped, Dr. BB has live constituency-wise trackers set up for all 26 seats in GJ and all 14 seats in nawth KA.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 23 Apr 2019 06:48

Satta bazaar has skin in the game. They lose real money. Rest can say sample size error.

Folks from Kerala and Gujarat please give updates.

Chetak and CRS the nook threat was for China using TSP as proxy.
Idiots taking it out of context.

The 33 eminent chatteratti are preemptive strike on Gogoi.

Tomorrow polling will tell us how things will shape up.


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