2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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dipak
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby dipak » 27 Apr 2019 19:56

vimal wrote:
arshyam wrote:Medium, eh? An article like this will be used later to discredit the elections. "See, we predicted a different result", blah, blah. Never mind that this lady has no idea about the ground reality, but a gora publication has called a result, so we must follow the guidance onlee.

Btw, vimal-ji, thanks for sharing this article. We need to know what others think of the election, so we can expect what's to come down the line.


This trash is being spread on facebook by none other than uber secular Tufail Ah-mad. I used to respect this Tufail guy but he has gone completely bonkers ever since Modi came to power. He is as green as they come.

BTW, I checked out the bio of the writer of that article and here is her linkedin profile.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/gabriellewh ... bdomain=uk

Experienced Freelance Journalist and B2B Copywriter with a demonstrated history of working in the online media industry. Skilled in Search Engine Optimization (SEO), WordPress, Journalism, Magazines, and Newspapers. Strong media and communication professional with a Bachelor of Arts (BA) (2.1) focused in Communication and Media Studies from Liverpool John Moores University.


Clearly a paid article.

Medium is the same site where Sameer Joshi published his article ..?
Anyways, the article is clearly screaming 'Lifafa' from a long distance.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 27 Apr 2019 20:06

https://twitter.com/SwamiGeetika/status ... 6566595584

"Congress Flag is to be used for household and our vote is for BJP." :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 27 Apr 2019 20:11

https://twitter.com/desiboho/status/112 ... 65152?s=19

The Modi govt is being dissed for being "anti women" by liberals. Here's a thread on all the progressive initiatives of this govt that have directly or indirectly helped and will help Indian women across regions, religions and income levels in the last 5 years and times to come.

1)Triple Talaq Bill: Earlier Muslim men could instantly end a marriage leaving the wives helpless, often with multiple children and no support. The Modi Govt formulated a bill that makes this in any form - oral/implied - illegal and void, with upto 3 yrs in jail for the husband

2) Beti Padhaao Beti Bachao Campaign: aims at prevention of gender biased sex selective elimination, ensuring survival, protection & education of the girl child.Multiple volunteers go around small towns & villages & a plethora of short films/ads have been made to create awareness

3) Under Swachh Bharat, the govt has built 9~ crore toilets in rural & semi rural areas. Earlier women who had no toilets at home had to travel far for one or defecate in the open. The number of toilets is steadily increasing & program has been lauded around the world.

4) Under the Ujjwala scheme, women @ a certain income level get free LPG connections doing away with the "Chulha" which is a health hazard & has caused around 5 lacs death in India so far. Around 7 crore LPG connections have been handed out so far.

5) The BJP/NDA cabinet has as many as 8 women, even at such high profile (and hitherto male dominated ) positions as Defense Minister and Ministry of External Affairs, (1st time a woman has taken these) as well as 3 women Supreme Court Judges. This is unprecedented for any govt.

6) The Mahila Uddyami Scheme is a special feature of the successful Mudra Yojna that provides hassle-free loan to women entrepreneurs in MSE segment. Almost 8/10 accounts opened for people availing of loans of less than Rs 50,000 were for women. https://t.co/eHTN6MM5p0

7) In Sept 2018, the Supreme Court declared the regressive section 377 that penalises gay sex as unconstitutional, there was no opposition from any in the BJP, unlike some previous years when it was opposed by Congress. #LGBTQ folks support this govt.

8) The Maternity Benefit Amendment Act passed in 2017 has increased the duration of paid maternity leave available for women employees from the existing 12 weeks to 26 weeks, including adoptive and commissioning mothers. https://t.co/A6Zxl7vbvh

9) Under Startup India scheme, women entrepreneurs can avail high funding amounts, loans at a lower interest, lower taxes, as well regular programmes that give free access to safe coworking spaces and award women in business. https://t.co/uUXZahQgG9

11) Women sitting in on their Macbooks & iPhones in South Bombay circles are as far removed from reality on the ground as possible. I've attended political rallies this election season, spoken to maids, small street vendors about who's done good work for them and answer is one https://t.co/cBkdpqLJCj

11) And yes this should be the Twitter favourite, when MJ Akbar, a BJP minister was one of the #MeToo accused, he was made to step down immediately from his position. Unlike Siddharth Bhatia & Vinod Dua both of Modi-hating @Thewire_in who continue to thrive today.

13) Women buyers get preference under PMAY scheme (lower interest rates & stamp duty waiver for women) to encourage women home buyers. https://t.co/iYoBOIyKZD
Thanks @pujaj2008 for the hat tip.

•2018 : India got its first all Women SWAT Force– 36 Women Commandos from Northeast India.
•2018: Sainik Schools across the country opened admissions for Girls.
• 2019: Indian Army opens vacancies for women to serve in Corps of Military Police.

15) On March 8, 2018, the govt launched ‘Suvidha’ - oxo-biodegradable sanitary pads and will be made available in packs of 4, priced at Rs. 2.50 per pad. They will be found across 586 Indian districts, at Pradhan Mantri Bhartiya Janaushadhi centres. https://t.co/qBs5NtBh4k

16) Under the maternity benefit scheme announced on Jan 2017, women below the poverty line to get Rs. 6000 for delivery of a baby to aid in post care and health diet.
https://t.co/25xsxBxyXt

17) Over 50% of the 30cr bank accounts opened under the Jan Dhan Yojana since 2014 belong to women. The scheme aims at equipping the poor with bank accounts with benefits like 1lac insurance cover, no min balance, interest on deposits, ease of use, loans. https://t.co/r0JPYlXgGi

18) And as many people pointed out, NONE of these schemes or initiatives are named after Modi or any of the ministries under whom they fall. Compare this with all the "Gandhi" Yojanas. Heck even in the US, they had Obamacare.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 27 Apr 2019 20:15

https://twitter.com/Dayweekaa/status/11 ... 3080633344

Don't miss what little girl from Varanasi says: Modi vs Rahul ... must listen

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 27 Apr 2019 20:44

https://twitter.com/narendramodi177/sta ... 7248584706

More
Shocking Video Congress Making Fool Of Villagers By Filling Fake Forms Of Nyay Yojna. This Desperation On Congress Shows #ModiAaneWalaHai

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 27 Apr 2019 20:49

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5KjGOVU4AIs1LF.jpg

.......
Admin edit: Please dont put such large text in image format. Adds little value for the amount of effort to scroll, thread sizing disruption.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shaktimaan » 27 Apr 2019 22:21

Self deleted as article was already posted earlier. Apologies.
Last edited by Shaktimaan on 27 Apr 2019 22:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby arshyam » 27 Apr 2019 22:23

jamwal wrote:Medium is a personal blog platform like wordpress and blogspot. You can pay 10-20 dollars to anyone to write a 800-1000 words article on any topic. This writer is a professional in this online promotions, not Indian politics.

Thanks, I looked at their "about" page, and it was not clear as to who they were, or what their business model was.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 27 Apr 2019 22:25

Karthik S wrote:


The main reason given is 30 seats loss in UP. Sigh, each one coming up own numbers. Amit Shah says in video shared above 15% of combined SP BSP voters will not transfer votes or are not happy with alliance therefore not vote for their respective parties. If what AS says is accurate then BJP's vote share will only increase. So 30 seat loss seams too high.


If this comes true, what are we looking at vis a vis NDA?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Apr 2019 22:25

"UK-based Research Group" = = "ISIS"

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 27 Apr 2019 22:26

Reads like complete propaganda. Ppl continue to laugh openly at pappu as versus the glowing terms in which he and INC are referred to in the article.
MGB is the real issue, caste voting etc.

Shaktimaan wrote:Thoo-fail posted this article on Tiwtter with great glee. Is there anything to worry?

https://medium.com/@gabriellepickardwhi ... 9ce1492aa9

"A Congress Party landslide in the general election, the result of which will be announced on May 23, is the finding of a survey compiled by a UK-based research group that polled 20,500 people out of whom 52% were male and 48% female, across 24 states in India, weighted to represent the total voting population.

The collated data found that 213 seats — equating to 39% of the electorate — will go to the Indian National Congress Party, compared to 170 seats (31%) for the BJP and 160 seats (30%) for other regional parties."

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 27 Apr 2019 22:43

Rahul seems to be out in PM consideration in case NDA falls short of the magic mark. Mamata Banerjee may not be interested in Delhi so is Stalin or Akilesh, so that leaves Mayawati or CBN for consideration. Of course all these speculations are only till numbers are out on 23rd.

Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati or Chandrababu Naidu better PM options than Rahul: NCP chief Sharad Pawar
https://zeenews.india.com/lok-sabha-gen ... 98988.html

UP is again and as usual deciding state as 3 phases didn't yield much for BJP in deciding positive direction.
Last edited by ShyamSP on 27 Apr 2019 23:47, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 27 Apr 2019 22:46

All the pollsters saying there is no wave like 2014:
None of them predicted the wave in 2014. No body said there was a wave until after the results came out barring one or two pollsters that too after the elections based on exit polls.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Apr 2019 22:46

Karan M wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
The main reason given is 30 seats loss in UP. Sigh, each one coming up own numbers. Amit Shah says in video shared above 15% of combined SP BSP voters will not transfer votes or are not happy with alliance therefore not vote for their respective parties. If what AS says is accurate then BJP's vote share will only increase. So 30 seat loss seams too high.


If this comes true, what are we looking at vis a vis NDA?


NDA will still form the government. As much as the leadership is opposed to mahamilawat government formation. An alliance with least evil element - Mayawati, could possibly join the NDA. The key is to address the ideological concerns of the BSP without giving portfolios that will do chori-chapati.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Apr 2019 22:50

ShyamSP wrote:Rahul seems to be out in PM consideration in case NDA falls short of the magic mark. Mamata Banerjee may not be interested come to Delhi so is Stalin or Akilesh so that leaves Mayawati or CBN for consideration.

Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati or Chandrababu Naidu better PM options than Rahul: NCP chief Sharad Pawar
https://zeenews.india.com/lok-sabha-gen ... 98988.html

UP is again and as usual deciding state.


The Ganges river valley has been the cradle of Indian civilisation since the beginning of humanity. It is heavily populated and thus decide this election. From UP, BH and WB.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Apr 2019 22:52

The word needs to get out. There is no wave. Vote BJP and get every last vote. Leave nothing to chance as there is too much to lose.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 27 Apr 2019 22:55

hanumadu wrote:All the pollsters saying there is no wave like 2014:
None of them predicted the wave in 2014. No body said there was a wave until after the results came out barring one or two pollsters that too after the elections based on exit polls.


Generally they (decent predictors) predicted INC gets defeated and NDA comes. Only 2 factors were not predicted universally - BJP crossing magic figure or INC getting below legal (legal is 10%) opposition party qualification.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 27 Apr 2019 23:02

Naidu will win 4-5 seats. He will become PM of Vijaywada.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby TandavBrahmand » 27 Apr 2019 23:03

Mort Walker wrote:Hapur's Satta bazaar discounts 'Modi wave', but predict BJP win in LS polls

"We are expecting the BJP to win 240 seats. At best, the tally may touch 245 but not more than that," said one of the operators in the satta market.


The rates for the BJP getting 200 Lok Sabha seats is 46 paise and 58 paise for 250 seats, slightly lower than the 50 paise to 75 paise for the BJP getting 250 seats offered about 10 days ago.

Bookies are also betting heavily about the Congress getting less than 100 Lok Sabha seats, with the rates for it getting 85-90 seats at Rs1.60-1.70, according to the report.

Betting rates in the satta bazar seems to follow some opinion polls that have predicted 227 seats for the BJP-led NDA, 101 seats for the Congress-led UPA and 215 for all non-NDA, non-UPA parties combined.


The above quotes are from April 2014! Yes, they have skin in the game as much as someone putting coins in a slot machine.
(Main article source - https://www.domain-b.com/people/in_the_ ... andhi.html )

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rgosain » 27 Apr 2019 23:05

A prime example of how Indians suffer from learned helplessness and do not understand the validity and reliability of what they read in the English language press.
The person who wrote this claims to be from John Moores Liverpool. This is in fact the much poorer relation of prestigious The University of Liverpool where Har Gobind Khorana and Robert Robinson did their best work, and tends to do mainly vocational courses.

1) It is highly doubtful whether a 2.1 (BA) in the course they claim to have qualified in, would provide the necessary knowledge, skills and experience to undertake a field study of 20,500 respondents and provide valid hypothesis testing . In the uk polling research is carried out by specialist firms such as ipsos, mori, survation. There is no mention of the research firm, unless they are Oxbridge Analytika.

2) The number of 20, 500 is too small to provide significant feedback in a electorate of the size of India - unless of course there is an exit poll which would be illegal at this stage.

3)Some numbers tend to be fake or too precise, and this can be tested using Benford rules to determine whether a number tends to be less genuine - 20, 500 fails the smell test. Similarly the number of seats, 213 ?

Benford Tools


4) The swing necessary to generate the required outcome would have to occur across a far greater number of seats, and at a higher value.

There are a few Benford tools used by tax and forensic accountants, and great fun to play with

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 27 Apr 2019 23:08

hanumadu wrote:All the pollsters saying there is no wave like 2014:
None of them predicted the wave in 2014. No body said there was a wave until after the results came out barring one or two pollsters that too after the elections based on exit polls.

The funniest thing is that everyone's turning blue in the face saying there's no wave like there was in 2014.

Same guys were turning blue in the face in 2014 asserting there was no wave then.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 27 Apr 2019 23:19

Suraj wrote:
hanumadu wrote:All the pollsters saying there is no wave like 2014:
None of them predicted the wave in 2014. No body said there was a wave until after the results came out barring one or two pollsters that too after the elections based on exit polls.

The funniest thing is that everyone's turning blue in the face saying there's no wave like there was in 2014.

Same guys were turning blue in the face in 2014 asserting there was no wave then.


No Modi wave indeed. If i had doubts then these articles from the likes of NYT last week dispel them in a twinkle.

Opinion-The Remarkable Comeback of Rahul Gandhi

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 27 Apr 2019 23:24

And another hatchet job. This time from the venerable Pee-Pee-See

Setting up another future Raghuram Rajan- Mohua Moitro of the TMC.

India election 2019: Can West Bengal's female candidates win?

Anyone from Calcutta can comment on her antecedents?

Added later

Recently been seeing her get a lot of airtime from the phoren press. Something on how she stands up for critical issues line digital security and privacy et al. What gives?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 27 Apr 2019 23:30

arshyam wrote:
jamwal wrote:Medium is a personal blog platform like wordpress and blogspot. You can pay 10-20 dollars to anyone to write a 800-1000 words article on any topic. This writer is a professional in this online promotions, not Indian politics.

Thanks, I looked at their "about" page, and it was not clear as to who they were, or what their business model was.

Medium is owned by the co-founder and former CEO of Twitter.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 27 Apr 2019 23:32

Mohua Moitra is just an airhead with an attitude but a pretty face. So good for TV studios.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 27 Apr 2019 23:34

Mukesh, All I can say is Sunil Deodhar has been deployed to Kolkata. Lets see.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 27 Apr 2019 23:43

rgosain wrote:2) The number of 20, 500 is too small to provide significant feedback in a electorate of the size of India - unless of course there is an exit poll which would be illegal at this stage.


Based on comments from some senior journalists in AP. (I recently saw one Telugu interview also which I can provide link for)
- Most TV surveys are bogus. No one gives right answer especially if surveyed person sees cameras, phone cameras. Most of it (75%) it is lying only. With smaller sample sizes as most TV surveys do whole survey is not reliable.
- Phone surveys are bogus too except better than TV surveys.
- Print media surveys are better than above two. That too if they do simple tick-marking surveys not elaborate paper&pad survey.
- They can only get mood of electorate by informal talking in that area. Such mood can't be predicted with precise numbers.

Of course, large scale surveys and party surveys are different which usually are not revealed to the public.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby DharmaB » 27 Apr 2019 23:58

Satta Bazar betting in March 2014...

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 858540.cms

....
Top bookmakers across the country announced the bulk of odds late in the evening on March 10 and the trends are unsurprising except for the fact that the punters are a little more confident of the NDA reaching 272 seats. The worst-case scenario for the BJP seems to be 200 seats with odds at a paltry 22 paise. The price climbs to Rs 1.80 for a target of 225 seats. Some betting operators believe that the party is capable of reaching 230-235 seats though surprisingly no odds are being offered for t ..

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/31858540.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 28 Apr 2019 00:21

ShyamSP wrote: Of course, large scale surveys and party surveys are different which usually are not revealed to the public.


In 2014, by March and April, most of the "professional agency" opinion polls were correctly predicting the results in AP:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_Indian_general_election#Andhra_Pradesh_(42)

The opinion polls in 2019 are a little scattered:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... radesh_(25)

Two polls around the same time predicted opposite results. The vote share difference between TDP and YSRC is very small (in the range of 1%), and within that margin it is not possible to predict seats accurately. Last time the vote share difference was higher because of NDA.

What is clear is that:

(1) This time TDP is in a very tight situation, there is certainly no expectation of a clear "victory"

(2) Chandranna seems worried - blaming the EVMs...whereas YSRC is backing the EC on the EVM issue.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 28 Apr 2019 00:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 28 Apr 2019 00:33

Correct me if I am wrong, but I am assuming most of the news channels must be knowing the exit poll results in each phase? Of course they cannot release any results till May 19 evening.

I guess the likes of Republic TV/India TV/Zee News/Times Now will be getting these results from their "contract" pollsters like CVoter, INX, VMR, etc. ? Or is there some EC rule that the pollsters cannot share the results with news agencies during polls.

All these channels seem to be strongly gung-ho for NDA all through the election so far...both in the coverage and the body language of the anchors and reporters...and also all queuing up for Modi interviews. Nobody seems keen in interviewing Pappu, Didi etc. Makes me think they are following the exit poll results.

Even NDTV seems to be going soft on NDA during the election as far as I can see. They have in-house pollsters (Annoy Roy and somebody named Dorab).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 28 Apr 2019 00:37

Supratik wrote:Mohua Moitra is just an airhead with an attitude but a pretty face. So good for TV studios.

if forgotten she is the one who showed middle finger during a debate on Republic TV

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 28 Apr 2019 00:40

IndraD wrote:
Supratik wrote:Mohua Moitra is just an airhead with an attitude but a pretty face. So good for TV studios.

if forgotten she is the one who showed middle finger during a debate on Republic TV


that's the one.

a logic challenged bimbo with very prehensile fingers.


Image
Last edited by chetak on 28 Apr 2019 01:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 28 Apr 2019 00:40

News from friends & relatives in Bihar is reassuring
There is Modi tsunami and opposition is all over places, in many places CPI is working against congress (central Bihar).
Begusarai: Kanhaiya Kumar has divided muslims due to Javed Akhtar, Javed Jaafri visiting Begusarai. Javed A has visited almost all muslim villages with speeches like 'thodi shiddat to paida kijiye' and 'lahron ko chup chap behna hoga'
Her wife is based in patna these days.
Most of the seats in Bihar r up for grabs for Modi saar.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 28 Apr 2019 00:46

Most reassuring exit poll so far is Namo's confidence itself : he is sure of returning with majority on own.
In interviews over past few days he has clearly stated he is returning.
He is some one who won't lie. And has got hands on pulse of India.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rgosain » 28 Apr 2019 01:08

KL Dubey wrote:Correct me if I am wrong, but I am assuming most of the news channels must be knowing the exit poll results in each phase? Of course they cannot release any results till May 19 evening.

I guess the likes of Republic TV/India TV/Zee News/Times Now will be getting these results from their "contract" pollsters like CVoter, INX, VMR, etc. ? Or is there some EC rule that the pollsters cannot share the results with news agencies during polls.

All these channels seem to be strongly gung-ho for NDA all through the election so far...both in the coverage and the body language of the anchors and reporters...and also all queuing up for Modi interviews. Nobody seems keen in interviewing Pappu, Didi etc. Makes me think they are following the exit poll results.

Even NDTV seems to be going soft on NDA during the election as far as I can see. They have in-house pollsters (Annoy Roy and somebody named Dorab).


Don't you think it is interesting that this uk research firm has gone to all the trouble and cost of polling 20500 individuals, and on the day it is published or close enough, Priyanka G vanishes. If your party is heading for victory, you try and ride the wave.

A lot of the external interference by the ford foundation, usaid, and others is familiar to those of us who have seen this in fiji, guyana, surinam and elsewhere eg bogus polls, interference with the judiciary, questioning of the polling etc

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 28 Apr 2019 01:10

KL Dubey wrote:
ShyamSP wrote: Of course, large scale surveys and party surveys are different which usually are not revealed to the public.


In 2014, by March and April, most of the "professional agency" opinion polls were correctly predicting the results in AP:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_Indian_general_election#Andhra_Pradesh_(42)

The opinion polls in 2019 are a little scattered:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... radesh_(25)

Two polls around the same time predicted opposite results. The vote share difference between TDP and YSRC is very small (in the range of 1%), and within that margin it is not possible to predict seats accurately. Last time the vote share difference was higher because of NDA.

What is clear is that:

(1) This time TDP is in a very tight situation, there is certainly no expectation of a clear "victory"

(2) He seems worried - blaming the EVMs...whereas YSRC is backing the EC on the EVM issue.


Due to curfew on AP, I try to reply in brief and limit to election voting only.

National media predicted wrong in 2014 also. YSRC aka YCP was in same gung ho as they are now till final number is announced in 2014. On EVM thing he has been fighting since 2009 including along with BJP till 2014, it is not new and he had some success in SC.

Coming to 2019, net vote shift towards TDP is more than YCP including rest of non-YCP INC votebank and some Muslim vote bank. EJ convert votebank is solid for YCP. There is also some positive factor shifts such as women and old people vote banks towards TDP. Only factor favorable to YCP is risk factor TDP took with respect to Jena Sena. Because East Godavari district is largest where Jena Sena confusion can affect TDP. But given comprise on Visakapatnam MP seat last minute, compromise between Jena Sena and TDP on other MP/MLA seats in the Godavari/Viska districts can mitigate any loss which YCP banked on in its expectations. In Rayalaseema and South coastal districts, TDP is net gainer of a few seats if not no gainer for both sides. YCP has to gain 20-30 seats to get majority and TDP has to lose 20-30 seats to lose majority, this much shift I feel is difficult as they is no big negative factors impacting either side.
Last edited by ShyamSP on 28 Apr 2019 01:36, edited 1 time in total.

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Apr 2019 01:17

From Wikidevata
Social media abuses and fake news
According to The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, the 2019 Indian election has attracted a systematic attempt to spread misinformation through the social media.[56][57] Facebook claims that over a hundred of these social media advocacy accounts spreading disinformation about the 2019 Indian elections have been traced to "employees of the Pakistani military public relations wing".[56][57] Some others have been linked to the opposition Indian National Congress,[57][56] as well as the (equal-equal) incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party.[57] The super-re-lie-able UBCN has been largely silent on the election but is expected to come out with their breathlessly-awaited and always-impeccable Predictions on May 24, 2019 itself (Hawaii Standard Time).

mmasand
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby mmasand » 28 Apr 2019 01:19

rgosain wrote:A prime example of how Indians suffer from learned helplessness and do not understand the validity and reliability of what they read in the English language press.
The person who wrote this claims to be from John Moores Liverpool. This is in fact the much poorer relation of prestigious The University of Liverpool where Har Gobind Khorana and Robert Robinson did their best work, and tends to do mainly vocational courses.

1) It is highly doubtful whether a 2.1 (BA) in the course they claim to have qualified in, would provide the necessary knowledge, skills and experience to undertake a field study of 20,500 respondents and provide valid hypothesis testing . In the uk polling research is carried out by specialist firms such as ipsos, mori, survation. There is no mention of the research firm, unless they are Oxbridge Analytika.

2) The number of 20, 500 is too small to provide significant feedback in a electorate of the size of India - unless of course there is an exit poll which would be illegal at this stage.

3)Some numbers tend to be fake or too precise, and this can be tested using Benford rules to determine whether a number tends to be less genuine - 20, 500 fails the smell test. Similarly the number of seats, 213 ?

Benford Tools


4) The swing necessary to generate the required outcome would have to occur across a far greater number of seats, and at a higher value.

There are a few Benford tools used by tax and forensic accountants, and great fun to play with


One question: where is his ethics approval or his sample derivation? Also, if its a published paper, where is it published? I would rather look at OpEd's from LSESA or UoN's Asian Policy Institute, they only give a platform to proven academia in Tier A. Besides John Moores doesn't have an IR/Politics School.

rgosain
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rgosain » 28 Apr 2019 01:22

mmasand wrote:
rgosain wrote:A prime example of how Indians suffer from learned helplessness and do not understand the validity and reliability of what they read in the English language press.
The person who wrote this claims to be from John Moores Liverpool. This is in fact the much poorer relation of prestigious The University of Liverpool where Har Gobind Khorana and Robert Robinson did their best work, and tends to do mainly vocational courses.

1) It is highly doubtful whether a 2.1 (BA) in the course they claim to have qualified in, would provide the necessary knowledge, skills and experience to undertake a field study of 20,500 respondents and provide valid hypothesis testing . In the uk polling research is carried out by specialist firms such as ipsos, mori, survation. There is no mention of the research firm, unless they are Oxbridge Analytika.

2) The number of 20, 500 is too small to provide significant feedback in a electorate of the size of India - unless of course there is an exit poll which would be illegal at this stage.

3)Some numbers tend to be fake or too precise, and this can be tested using Benford rules to determine whether a number tends to be less genuine - 20, 500 fails the smell test. Similarly the number of seats, 213 ?

Benford Tools


4) The swing necessary to generate the required outcome would have to occur across a far greater number of seats, and at a higher value.

There are a few Benford tools used by tax and forensic accountants, and great fun to play with


One question: where is his ethics approval or his sample derivation? Also, if its a published paper, where is it published? I would rather look at OpEd's from LSESA or UoN's Asian Policy Institute, they only give a platform to proven academia in Tier A. Besides John Moores doesn't have an IR/Politics School.


Thanks for mentioning that, about the sample and the consent. There is no error analyses, chi or student t-testing.
Also PG vanished the day or so this wonderful report came out?
These series of events are straight out of the colour revolution for dummies handbook. Even trump has accused the uk of trying to discredit him.
Last edited by rgosain on 28 Apr 2019 01:40, edited 1 time in total.

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Apr 2019 01:36

The Wiki article gets better:

NaMo TV and Modi biopic
According to The Financial Times and other news sources, on March 31 2019, the cable and satellite operators added a new "NaMo TV" channel to the dozens of news and entertainment channels they already offer.[58][59][60] Further, independently, a Bollywood biopic named "PM Narendra Modi" starring Vivek Oberoi was due for release in early April. The NaMo TV channel exclusively focuses on replaying Narendra Modi’s speeches, the live coverage of rallies by Modi and key leaders of the Bharatiya Janata party, and presenting the incumbent government's initiatives and achievements in the last five years to the audience that chooses to tune to the channel.[58] The election time Bollywood biopic, states The Financial Times, is "adulatory, which depicts his [Modi's] rise from humble origins as the son of a railway station tea-seller to a strongman who vows to avenge Pakistani terror attacks".[58]

The Indian opposition led by the Congress Party and activists opposed to the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party have expressed outrage and alleged that it violates India's election laws and the regulations on "broadcast channels" under the Programme Codes of the Cable TV Act of 1994.[58][59]

Their own movie "The Raga of Rahul Gandy" meanwhile, is late in production, with several of the actors and producers reported to be in hospital with rib injuries caused by ROTFL (Rahul Observations Triggering Fatal Levity) Syndrome. The director and producer are in hiding following complaints of international bribery and extortion.
- The foregoing has been slightly edited for clarity, in accuracy and brevity by UBCN


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