2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 28 Apr 2019 19:37

CRS and others
don't bring whines from elsewhere and give publicity.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby fanne » 28 Apr 2019 20:29

thanks for that sound advice. If you want to watch RNDTV or any such, its your prerogative, but please do not vomit the content here, many here do not watch, because they are convinced that it is wrong and useless and vile and...it is not worth wasting even a second. Please respect our decision as I respect yours to watch whatever catches your fancy

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 28 Apr 2019 21:08

Anyone having idea about UP, how nirahua yadav stacks up against akhilesh yadav in azamgarh?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 28 Apr 2019 21:13

Listen to Arnab to see if this is a WAVE or NOT ...

Don''t build castles in the air. Will fall with a big thud on May 23.

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1122389569674997760

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby CRamS » 28 Apr 2019 21:27

Guys, I watch all sides and come to my own judgement, of course tainted with some caution bordering on healthy pessimism :-).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rgosain » 28 Apr 2019 21:46

Karthik S wrote:Anyone having idea about UP, how nirahua yadav stacks up against akhilesh yadav in azamgarh?


Same here, i have been trying to work out how the sp-bsp alliance can transfer their votes cleanly. Interesting article on turnout

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-times/why-those-who-didnt-turn-out-to-vote-may-be-key-to-verdict-2019/articleshow/69075957.cms

and Surgit Bhalla publishes a range of outcomes based on several models and likelihoods.
[url]https://theprint.in/pageturner/excerpt/heres-how-many-seats-congress-can-win-in-2019-lok-sabha-elections/227941/
[/url]

Because this is the first GE that the sp-bsp have done, it is very difficult to work up priors for bayesian ..i thought i could do it

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 28 Apr 2019 22:05

vijayk wrote:Listen to Arnab to see if this is a WAVE or NOT ...

Don''t build castles in the air. Will fall with a big thud on May 23.

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1122389569674997760


I assume your advice above is for "secular" wallahs ? Arnab seems to be clearly hinting at a "Modi wave". While nobody except BB is showing any kind of numerical data, the "saffron" camp has plenty of strong indications to go by.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 28 Apr 2019 22:28

Vikas wrote:Ground report from Mumbai:
BJP - SS alliance will sweep all the seats for sure in Mumbai. The mood on the ground is that not even peacefools or Lovefools dare mention congoons. Everyone is voting for Modi Ji. Who cares if it is Priya dutt or Milind Deora or Urmila who will be brushed aside.


That sounds promising. The easterly regions of MH have always been more challenging for NDA...and if the performance there has been as good as estimated in Phases 1-3, I would expect the Mumbai region to be even stronger. In that case, we would be looking at a repeat of 2014 (~40 seats from MH and GA).

I am also getting "chaiwala" and "chowkidar" reports on RJ (mostly from the northern part though - I don't have any input on the south that goes to election tomorrow). It seems the INC operation there has fallen apart due to infighting, lack of money flow, and non-action on VS poll promises. Also people are drawing clear distinction between LS and VS election. "We have taught Raje a lesson in VS, and that is past. Now will vote for Modi in LS."

Finally, Amethi: all indications are that Pappu may be toppled this time by Smriti Irani with a decent margin to boot. The Pipri village - which, as some may recall, came into limelight through BRF in 2014 - is still a campaign highlight in 2019. Irani and Yogi have managed to reconnect the village and others in the area by building barriers/dykes to prevent road submersion when the Gomati changes course.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 28 Apr 2019 23:10

Paging user niran. Where is he these days? He has pretty good knowledge of UP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Apr 2019 23:14

Hmm! Arnab lit into The Pumpkin, didn't he? Is there enough of the election left for this "army" to conquer? True that the Maha Gaddhas are into increasingly desperate tactics.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 28 Apr 2019 23:29

The low turnout from the IT sector during the elections in bangalore has finally caught the eyes of some founders.

They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately.

Also, I have had this very nasty feeling for quite some time now that some guys are paying off the authorities to specifically ensure voting is arranged on such a day which when coupled with following/preceding holidays and weekends make for a looooong out of town break.

These are the very same guys who then go on SM and vomit out all sorts of crap against the RW and others of that ilk.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby darshan » 28 Apr 2019 23:33


ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 29 Apr 2019 00:10

abhijitm wrote:Paging user niran. Where is he these days? He has pretty good knowledge of UP.



He is busy.
What do you want to know?

Phase 4 expectation is BJP will get 57/71 seats going for polls.
NDA gets 3 more.
Rest I don't care.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 29 Apr 2019 00:14

chetak wrote:The low turnout from the IT sector during the elections in bangalore has finally caught the eyes of some founders.

They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately.

Also, I have had this very nasty feeling for quite some time now that some guys are paying off the authorities to specifically ensure voting is arranged on such a day which when coupled with following/preceding holidays and weekends make for a looooong out of town break.

These are the very same guys who then go on SM and vomit out all sorts of crap against the RW and others of that ilk.



chetak in the big picture B'luru doesn't matter. Those ITVTY NOTArds will get what they deserve as RaGa robs the rich via aNYAY schemes with ITVTY guru Sam Pitroda. To be frank I hold those morons totally responsible for NammaMahishasur rule in Karnataka.

The good thing is in the rest of India, this urban vote has been nullified by minorities deciding they don't want to support losers.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 29 Apr 2019 01:11

chetak wrote:They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately.


That has "lawsuit" written all over it. Imagine the guy that takes holiday to vote...momma falls critically ill the same day....he can't get to the polling booth...fired the next day.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby mridulmm » 29 Apr 2019 01:36

KL Dubey wrote:
chetak wrote:They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately.


That has "lawsuit" written all over it. Imagine the guy that takes holiday to vote...momma falls critically ill the same day....he can't get to the polling booth...fired the next day.


I think a better option is to keep 'voting leave' as a floating leave. If employee opts for this floating leave they need to provide proof of voting the next day, just like sick leaves. Otherwise the leave should be counted towards appropriate category : paid, casual or sick depending on employee's circumstances. This would de-motivate people misusing their voting leave.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 29 Apr 2019 01:39

Ravi Kant
‏ @LegalKant
Why is Indian media shying from highlighting the deep role of Indian Islamists and mosques in #SriLankaAttacks?
Here is Malaysia backed Muslim preacher #ZakirNaik with one of the terrorists


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5OiOGjWAAAH9KH.png

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Apr 2019 02:17

Are they going to try washing off the ink? Any employee who returns from a day at the beach or cricket ground, and fails to put an ink mark on their finger, SHOULD be fired for laziness and incompetence and total disregard of company regulations, hain? No judge will refute that logic.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 29 Apr 2019 02:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 29 Apr 2019 02:29

If you believe Google trends, this election is a runaway win for Modi https://dynastycrooks.wordpress.com/201 ... -for-modi/

Very interesting have a look ^

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 29 Apr 2019 02:30

Zee News
‏Verified account @ZeeNews

BREAKING: Priyanka Gandhi makes a disgraceful comment on PM Modi, says 'Till date I don't know what is PM Modi's caste'.

https://twitter.com/ZeeNews/status/1122409422506979329

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 29 Apr 2019 03:15

vijayk wrote:
Ravi Kant
‏ @LegalKant
Why is Indian media shying from highlighting the deep role of Indian Islamists and mosques in #SriLankaAttacks?
Here is Malaysia backed Muslim preacher #ZakirNaik with one of the terrorists


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5OiOGjWAAAH9KH.png

He is not a Jihadi involved in SL attacks.
He is Zamri Vinoth a neoconvert islamist preacher from Malaysia.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 29 Apr 2019 03:26

ramana wrote:
.... Those ITVTY NOTArds will get what they deserve as RaGa robs the rich via aNYAY schemes with ITVTY guru Sam Pitroda. To be frank I hold those morons totally responsible for NammaMahishasur rule in Karnataka.
....


aNYAY will first rob the Middle Class & the poor.
Rich will always find ways to escape in the Congie ecosystem.

The middle & salaried classes will be taxed the most as they will be made to pay through their nose.
The poor will be given with one hand and taken away with another hand via jacked up indirect tax rates & runaway inflation.

All the while the congie ecosystem will skim the malai .

Perfect aNYAY.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 29 Apr 2019 03:46

KL Dubey wrote:
vijayk wrote:Listen to Arnab to see if this is a WAVE or NOT ...

Don''t build castles in the air. Will fall with a big thud on May 23.

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1122389569674997760


I assume your advice above is for "secular" wallahs ? Arnab seems to be clearly hinting at a "Modi wave". While nobody except BB is showing any kind of numerical data, the "saffron" camp has plenty of strong indications to go by.


of course :lol:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 29 Apr 2019 03:54

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1122538212734459904
Republic

#ModiWaveElection | The kind of communication, networking in BJP shocked me. There is no conversation happening in the Congress, chits are being passed to Rahul Gandhi: Tom Vadakkan- Leader, BJP


I wonder by letting all these people like Tom Vadakkan into BJP may be dangerous in long term. They are letting all their secrets out

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Pathik » 29 Apr 2019 05:04

mridulmm wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
That has "lawsuit" written all over it. Imagine the guy that takes holiday to vote...momma falls critically ill the same day....he can't get to the polling booth...fired the next day.


I think a better option is to keep 'voting leave' as a floating leave. If employee opts for this floating leave they need to provide proof of voting the next day, just like sick leaves. Otherwise the leave should be counted towards appropriate category : paid, casual or sick depending on employee's circumstances. This would de-motivate people misusing their voting leave.

+1. something like jury duty time

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 29 Apr 2019 08:20

Phase 4 is on....

BB has seat-wise trackers available for viewing for south Rajasthan and the Mumbai metro region. Let us see what can be gleaned from these today.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Apr 2019 08:26

vijayk wrote:https://twitter.com/republic/status/1122538212734459904
Republic

#ModiWaveElection | The kind of communication, networking in BJP shocked me. There is no conversation happening in the Congress, chits are being passed to Rahul Gandhi: Tom Vadakkan- Leader, BJP


I wonder by letting all these people like Tom Vadakkan into BJP may be dangerous in long term. They are letting all their secrets out



It won’t make any difference. What Tom’s statement shows is that the INC operates like a dictatorship or more correctly like a mafia. The lower echelons dare not question the Nehru/Gandhi family. Rather the sycophants suck up to the family vying for influence and favoritism. Only telling them what they want to hear. When things work out, the sycophants are rewarded, otherwise it is a return jihajoori. A democratic organization hears from all of its members in the field. They see what the public needs in any local area and formulate a plan to move forward. Such conversations in the INC never happened. After Banditji’s independence contemporaries passed, he and then IG and RG writ carried through like a dictator. MMS was shabbily treated by the family, at first he brought them what they wanted - the ability to conduct theft, then later discarded.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby CRamS » 29 Apr 2019 08:32

KL Dubey wrote:
BB has seat-wise trackers available ...



Boss who is BB?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 29 Apr 2019 08:40

CRamS wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
BB has seat-wise trackers available ...



Boss who is BB?

Praveen Patil - PP in India, BB in Lahore.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 29 Apr 2019 09:51

Ardeshir wrote:
CRamS wrote:
Boss who is BB?

Praveen Patil - PP in India, BB in Lahore.


BB = Braveen Badil. Who is this other guy??

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Picklu » 29 Apr 2019 09:58

Points as observed by friends and relatives in WB election:

    1. Tiyarul Sheikh was hacked less than 100 meters from the polling booth.
    2. In open daylight in front of everyone as a warning to rest of the voters in state. Same is the case of all others. It is well known that all criminal cases registered by EC will revert to state police post election and they will be withdrawn or buried/killed if against ruling party. Not only that, BJP supporters will be falsely implicated.
    3. There were 4 central forces personnel present while hacking; they point blank refused to help siting their primary objective of protecting EVM and polling personnel and hence can't leave polling booth.
    4. To provide 92% coverage of polling booths, the number of central personnel has been thinned out in individual polling centers. Most centers having 4 or less booth have only 4 central force personnel instead of 8 as previous norm. Centers will higher number of booth have also thinned out in proportion. Ruling party is taking full advantage of the same.
    5. In case central force is not present, the ruling party goons are simply capturing booth and forcing polling personnel to look other way while they systematically the number of votes per minute as allowed by EVM.
    6. Tremendous fear psychosis before and after voting day; open threat of murdering people and/or destroying property after result declaration if not winning. Doesn't matter whom the victims actually voted. The fear of whole community being arbitrarily punished causes the entire village to self-regulate/sensor. There are also ruling party spies in all villages to sniff out information.
    7. Barricades and blocks just outside the EC allowed limit on polling day to identify and note down who all are voting and with whom they are going to vote. No protection outside this limit and instant violence if voting is not going well. Some common voters, getting a chance to release their frustration and thinking they are protected, will let go of op-sec and taunt the local party cadre with their voting preference. Instant reprisal.
    8. Opening doing all such things stating control is with EC and hence no accountability of ruling party and state govt. The entire state govt machinery and polling personnel forced to work for ruling party for the above mentioned reasons.
    9. Assiduous cultivation of Left and Congress to ensure opposition Vote Split. In the urban areas of WB, there is significant ideological opposition of BJP. All violence redirected to BJP while giving kid glove treatment to Left and Cong at ground level. Near Kolkata and other urban centers, Left and Cong will maintain high vote share.
    10. In rural Bengal as well as among the new and non-party-affiliated voters in cities, there is significant undercurrent BJP wave and vote percentage will definitely go high somewhat but due to the near perfect terror strategy ( This is the same terror strategy that was written about by Islamist ideologues in Zia Ul Haq's pakistan) against self, family members and extended family members, of voters as well as polling and law and order personnel the full conversion of the wave to ballot is doubtful.

Links about Tiyarul's hacking:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ele ... 016625.cms

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/ ... booth.html

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 29 Apr 2019 10:15

Thanks Picklu!

This was exactly what I was saying a few days ago too. PP is reading the undercurrent correctly but transforming that to seats would be very difficult. He seemed to be very confident that Modi is winning but I’m not so sure. That also brings to the point of why more central forces were not deployed in WB when the history is well known.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 29 Apr 2019 10:23

Babul supriyos car vandalized by tmc goons

The BJP will be raising the issue of violence on poll day today with the Election Commission after clashes broke out at several polling booths in Bengal's Asansol. Complaints of booth capture were also reported from some booths, after which BJP's Babul Supriyo had a heated argument with the poll official

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 29 Apr 2019 10:47

Is the Centre so powerless compared to the State machinery? Or is a limit imposed on what can be done by the EC?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shaktimaan » 29 Apr 2019 11:07

Voted along with my entire family in Mumbai. Voting was brisk. Modi voters are all charged up to bring him back.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 29 Apr 2019 11:09

BJP's prospects rests in a big way on BJP's performance in WB (and OR) to offset potential losses in the heartland. All I see is some BJP walah making noise on Twitter. Was expecting some action from PMO office.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ani_sharma » 29 Apr 2019 11:28

IndraD wrote:If you believe Google trends, this election is a runaway win for Modi https://dynastycrooks.wordpress.com/201 ... -for-modi/

Very interesting have a look ^

While the trend gives interesting data, there are few loopholes. it is likely to be biased as it approximately represent only 50% of demography who owns smartphone with data pack.
In my village (In Bihar), over 60-70% of people don't use smartphone but definitely vote. This 60-70% includes hard core modi voters to hard core modi haters.
In short, the trend shown may not be very accurate depending on which constituency you look at..

However, once we have the results, it will be an interesting exercise to back annotate region wise search metrics to overall results.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby mmasand » 29 Apr 2019 11:29

Shaktimaan wrote:Voted along with my entire family in Mumbai. Voting was brisk. Modi voters are all charged up to bring him back.


Fairly bleak in Mumbai North, the privileged and the lower classes are out to vote, most of the middle class are in holiday mode. Voting percentage was just under 10% across the city by 10am.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Avinandan » 29 Apr 2019 11:29

KL Dubey wrote:
Ardeshir wrote:Praveen Patil - PP in India, BB in Lahore.


BB = Braveen Badil. Who is this other guy??

Benazir Bhutto

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Picklu » 29 Apr 2019 11:39

There is a structural issue here. The 2 below points are key:

1. EC and Central forces are temporary (few weeks before and at the most one week after) with limited physical coverage (polling booth) and local intelligence.
2. The entire state machinery to ensure fairness - polling officer, police, magistrate and judge and their close and extended family lives permanently within the easy reach of ruling party cadres.

President's rule is not enough. A force like RR is required that will stay back for 3 years and provide protection post election. Not much different that coalition force in Afganistan.


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