2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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Primus
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Primus » 09 May 2019 03:11

Too much dhoti-shivering going on again folks. When I was in Desh just over two months ago (during the Balakot episode), I too heard from the locals that the BJP workers were saying that it was not going to be Modi but Gadkari who will be projected as the PM candidate. All of this is fluff and without any substance. People often talk to make themselves seem important and 'in the know'. Works over chai-biskoot at the local dhaba but not much else.

I am fully confident of the NDA alliance scoring over 300. Would be very surprised if the BJP alone does not surpass itself from the 2014 numbers. People have forgotten how viciously the UPA gang fought in the previous GE because they knew Modi was going to be bad for them, heck they've been fighting him since 2002! None of this is new. As Suraj Ji points out, the signs of progress and development are obvious to everyone and there is a palpable excitement in the populace. They have seen what five years of good governance has done for them and they are now hungry for more. When you have nothing you are happy to simply subsist. When you get a small taste of how a pukka house with electricity, a toilet and a gas cylinder electricity can change your life, you want more.

So many of us started in life with very little, barely surviving. Then when you first had a little surplus money, remember how you started dreaming of big things, how you were going to work harder, earn more, build a better life for you and yours? That is how the people in India feel today with Modi and his reforms. They have tasted 'vikas' and are yearning for more. They too are able to dream of big things. For the first time in human memory the poor of India are able to breathe without feeling suffocated, are able to stand tall and work with dignity. They really have come free of the shackles of the past.

There is no way this tsunami can be stopped. So have patience, keep the faith and if you are like me, jap the Hanuman Chaalisa every morning :D

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 09 May 2019 03:13

NewIndianExpress has put up an article saying KCR is cozying up to the Congress and wants JDS to broker a deal, but the page isn't opening for me:
http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 74131.html

ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 09 May 2019 03:21

Yes lots of press trying to project KCR as a national figure. Its to counter CBN who is also projecting same image.

And we will find out by two weeks.

Meantime don't get banned.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 09 May 2019 03:23

Having seen the Indian public do such incredibly stupid, selfish things such as constantly voting their caste etc, I guess a bit of concern is warranted. Another decade lost and our culture, economy, natsec will all take a brutal hit if the Indian public does this stupid thing. Anyways nothing we can do about it. No point whining about it overmuch.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 04:43

Karan M wrote:Having seen the Indian public do such incredibly stupid, selfish things such as constantly voting their caste etc, I guess a bit of concern is warranted. Another decade lost and our culture, economy, natsec will all take a brutal hit if the Indian public does this stupid thing. Anyways nothing we can do about it. No point whining about it overmuch.

People didn't really selfishly vote for caste in any of the past 5-6 GEs, IMHO. They voted the right way in 1998 and 1999 given the political dynamics of that time. They also voted in a meaningful manner in 2004 and 2009, based on understanding the scope of the problems we had.
the original report
article 1
Here's what India looked like in 2004 despite 15 years of liberalization:
Population: 1150 million
Population in destitution/extreme poverty: 450 million
Urban:rural ratio: 27:73
Total rural population: 840 million
Approx percentage of rural population destitute: ~50%
Rural road length: 2 million kms
Percentage of rural habitations connected to pucca road: 10%
Percentage of rural habitations with electricity: 27%
Percentage of working population with bank account: <15%


Fastforward to 2009:
Population: 1210 million
Population in destitution/extreme poverty: 335 million
Urban:rural ratio: 31:69
Total rural population: 830 million
Approx percentage of rural population destitute: ~40%
Rural road length: 2.7 million kms
Percentage of rural habitations connected to pucca road: 39%
Percentage of rural habitations with electricity: 33%
Percentage of working population with bank account: 30%


Here's what India is like in 2018-19:
Population: 1320 million
Population in destitution/extreme poverty: 50 million
Urban:rural ratio: 39:61
Total rural population: 805 million
Approx percentage of rural population destitute: ~6%
Rural road length: 4.4 million km
Percentage of rural habitations connected to pucca road: 91%
Percentage of rural habitations with electricity: ~95%
Percentage of working population with bank account: >90%


Reference: rural road building
electricity
banking 1
banking 2
latrine coverage

Just look at those numbers. ABV was stating "India Shining" to a rural population 75%-90% of whom (depending on what metric) had no access to roads, sanitation, electricity and banking, half of whom had no idea where their next meal was coming from. They were supposed to vote for vikas ? To use a phorum phrase, all they could see was weak-ass . The basic public goods and utilities coverage figures were downright appalling, and that's in 2004.

Given these figures, it's worth considering why rural India voted for populism in 2004. Though we had nice topline growth, we had SO MUCH to do, that quite simply what was expected otherwise ? The number of destitute in 2004 was incredible. That was close to half a billion people who, at 5pm , were not thinking of dinner, but wondering whether to crawl in search of food, or conserve their energy to go scavenge next morning. So many people literally living life one day at a time. How were we supposed to formulate economic policy and a political message more complex than 'here's some free money' like NREGA did ? I really do not know.

However, if you scan over the %age covered figures in 2019, something is very noticeable. Basic public goods and services - food, sanitation, electricity and roads, aren't so catastrophically bad as they were even in the 2000s. Most things are at 90%+ covered. In fact, the scale of improvement is dramatic over the prior periods. Following the same rate of growth, most of these metrics would have been in the 50-60% range in 2019, but they're all >90%.

One can argue the work hasn't been done perfectly, i.e. village electrification may be complete only on paper with more to be done, or that gas cylinder upfront payment cost hampers better use. These are all likely true to some extent or the other, but the large point is that the rate at which the coverage of all these basic public goods have increased, is quite far beyond prior average rate of improvement.

In my opinion, this is a blind spot that MSM hasn't really noticed, beyond poohpoohing Ujjwala, Swacch Bharat, Saubhagya or other data as just govt data. It also explains the groundswell of public support everywhere - the change really has been far more than incremental at the bottom of the pyramid, even if the change visible to middle class isn't all that great. This is a good thing - it's the rural poor who still are the overwhelming majority of the voterbase, and if they have to support a development mandate, they have to have near universal basic goods and services to live upon. People who watch the sun going down the horizon each day with a sinking fear as their empty stomachs growl , are not won't to have long term thinking horizon. They cannot have been expected to vote differently from how they did in the 2000s when someone dangled free money in their face, vs long term development.

A lot was accomplished in terms of economic growth in the 2000s, just not enough to significantly improve the bottom of the pyramid, like the last five years have. If my view of political economy is correct, this also explains the unusual enthusiasm that is showing in the sustained high voter turnout. 2014 could have been explained as a one time aberration. But even higher voter turnout of 67% in 2019, a full TEN percentage points higher than the long term average of 57%, has to have some broadbased reason.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 09 May 2019 05:09

Suraj, I am not referring to ABV's campaign per se with that comment. I am referring to BIMARU states and even in the South, where people whom I personally observed constantly voted neither on the basis of the topline points you are mentioning or even bothered about national policy, aims much before ABV.

They *only* voted their caste/ religion (what church/friday prayers detail etc). This is particularly horrific during State Elections, even apart from GEs. Again, those state elections matter because they run the actual state and ensure its development etc.

In which case, I think its worthwhile to consider what would those numbers you have above, would be, if the Indian public had consistently voted better and more in line with their own long term development.

How many years have we lost because we had the Lalus in Bihar, assorted crooks in UP and so forth.

The right question IMHO to ask is why did we have liberalization so late and how is it that the intellectually deficit "intellectuals" who claim to have had the inside GOI track for so long, didn't even realize this. And why, even before liberalization were/are things so bad in the majority of Indian states where Indian voters vote for politicians who swarm around in fancy cars, choppers and helicopters without seeing an iota of difference in their daily lives.

I had a guy from Bihar who was working at my home. Asked him why they vote criminals like Lalu in. Says "xxxx (caste) Raj hi hona chahiye". Another muslim guy was bemoaning his corporator is a "thief" and now owns two Pajeros and a Land Rover (from owning a Maruti-800 earlier) and then goes on to say, we will vote for him because "humara tho hain".

There is also widespread crooked/amoral behavior in play amongst many sections groups in society currently - will it change with growing economic development? Perhaps. For instance, I have had several requests to inform ppl working in lower income demographics about how to "get into IPS". Why? Because, that's where the power and bribes are. With this mindset amongst the people, I sometimes wonder why blame the politician for being a corrupt thug or jacka$4, he reflects the very people who elected him.

Also huge interest in taking GOI loans/freebies and not paying them back. Two people (different SI states) had both taken GOI/state loans and had no intention of paying back. Wanted payment in relations bank accounts or cash. Because if it went to the original account, it would be seized. Side business is all too common. You can get a contractor from some agency/firm, he will offer you a deal on the side with lower rates etc. This sort of unethical behavior is considered normal and "smart". If you protest or refuse to take the deal, you are an easy mark.

These people definitely don't appreciate a stern Modi putting Aadhar in place and trying to ensure corruption is down etc.

And less said the better about the educated middle class, the better. The above groups can at least be stated to have suffered from economic deprivation, which has stunted their belief system. But goodness, the number of ppl I have run into the past few years who have fallen full prey to either elitist thinking (what does that chaiwallah know) OR leftist brainwashing (we cannot have a yindu run the country) OR blame him for all their personal foibles (spend like crazy, yet I am not getting a fancy job because.. Mudi... because demonetization).

With this mindset in wide play, unfortunately, India will take another 2 decades to achieve what it could otherwise achieve in half the time.
This is the concern I have around people and their voting re: Modi.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 05:22

That phenomenon has been repeatedly mentioned in this thread, but with a particular rider - it's the older generation who remain wedded to biradari, even if paradoxically they support Modi too. Not their children, who are now of voting age. This has been quoted multiple times, by those visiting UP, Bihar and Rajasthan. I posted a couple of articles with such quotes too, with people literally saying "I have to vote for my community. But my son, he's going to vote Modi, as are most of his friends. Mine is only one vote. Surely Modi is coming back".

While people vote on caste lines sure, their national voting basis has far more to do with poverty than caste. Even looking at just UP, the voting arithmetic shifts dramatically such that a static entity such as a caste based voting is not visible even even in VS elections. Last three UP VS elections read:
2007: BSP large majority
2012: SP large majority
2017: BJP huge landslide
This is not a set of results indicating static caste based voting like in the 1990s. Rather, BJP has reverted to having the >35% voteshare it has during Kalyan Singh's era, but from a broader group of voters.

About 60% of our voting population are under 40 years old. Their dependency ratio is under 1 now, i.e. each working age adult supports less than 1 young or old. Most of these are not inclined to vote biradari, as on the field views indicate. The older generation will remain stuck to their ways, but most importantly, the younger ones both outnumber the older gen, and do not carry that sentiment.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 09 May 2019 05:34

Suraj, the people I am quoting (who were working for me) were all in the 20's, bar one in his 30's. Tribal obsession with identification to particular caste/faith etc for political identification is still very strong. They'll mix/be completely at home with everyone but organize by that primary grouping. You'll see guys in their 20's driving cabs with caste very prominently noted on the car, to show off their "strength", both north/south. I keep getting multiple whatsapp status updates, and what's interesting is sometimes these guys coalesce to a common viewpoint during say a Balakot etc, other times its all their local strongman leader whom they are obsessed with.

About poverty being a key decider over caste, what I am saying is the poor trust their local caste/faith leader over anyone else to somehow ameliorate their needs OR take vicarious pleasure in his success as being evidence of their success.

Not that BJP is stupid and doesn't understand these limitations. They are playing the caste game with some local leaders, plus development game, plus they have Modi, so hopefully they will scrape through.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 05:37

We'll have to agree to disagree as to the extent to which we consider the significance of this :)

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 09 May 2019 05:39

To be honest, I hope you are right and proven right! :)

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 09 May 2019 05:41

Suraj wrote:....
While people vote on caste lines sure, their national voting basis has far more to do with poverty than caste. Even looking at just UP, the voting arithmetic shifts dramatically such that a static entity such as a caste based voting is not visible even even in VS elections. Last three UP VS elections read:
2007: BSP large majority
2012: SP large majority
2017: BJP huge landslide
...

While I agree with what you are saying in your post, the UP results in particular actually reinforce the caste arithmetic in my opinion. The core support base of the SP (Yadavs and Muslims) and BSP (predominantly Jatav SC's) has not shifted. They still vote based on caste/religion. The elections are usually determined by how many of the other castes (non-Yadav OBC's, non-Jatav SC's and upper castes) vote for which party. Even a few percentage point change in their behavior gives large majorities to one party there. BJP's achievement in 2017 was consolidating the votes of all those communities. The seat-wise voteshare bears this out. Even the BJP could win there only by getting the caste arithmetic right. Same in Bihar.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 05:44

nachiket wrote:While I agree with what you are saying in your post, the UP results in particular actually reinforce the caste arithmetic in my opinion. The core support base of the SP (Yadavs and Muslims) and BSP (predominantly Jatav SC's) has not shifted. They still vote based on caste/religion. The elections are usually determined by how many of the other castes (non-Yadav OBC's, non-Jatav SC's and upper castes) vote for which party. Even a few percentage point change in their behavior gives large majorities to one party there. BJP's achievement in 2017 was consolidating the votes of all those communities. The seat-wise voteshare bears this out. Even the BJP could win there only by getting the caste arithmetic right. Same in Bihar.

Voteshare differences say otherwise. What you say was true in the voteshare differences in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Then, the voteshare difference between #1 and #2 was 1-4% . Since 2007, the gap is wider (reflected in seatshare delta too), and 2017 was just ridiculous with BJP getting way more. That's specifically why I quoted these three and not the ones before. To me, this data is a sign of caste vote banks fracturing. Unstable votebanks tend to demonstrate such wild swings.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Primus » 09 May 2019 06:06

^^

Race, religion, Caste and parochialism play a huge role in life everywhere, not just in poor, rural India. My partner will vote for anybody who has the best interest of Israel in mind (or at least declares it), no matter what else they may stand for. If an urban, highly educated, well-off person can think only of his 'own people', it is not surprising that the poor guy in UP always supports his own caste. And the irony is, most of the time these people are fooled by their own clansmen. Still, they keep coming back. It is human nature and of course in some cases, the fatwa from the tribal/caste leader.

And yet, sometimes the forces of change are so strong that even the compulsion to vote along caste lines can be resisted. I think we saw this in UP in 2017 and I bet we are going to see this again now.

What is truly revealing and sad at the same time is the progress India has made in the past five years, imagine the lost hopes, the lost generations over the past fifty years. If we had only had a different government......

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 09 May 2019 06:34

Suraj wrote:These pics are from Cyclone Fani.
Specifically, there's not much sign of destitute living. Some thatch huts. But mostly smooth roads, electrical cabling, a modern petrol bunk, a fallen over large road signage gantry, and even a family taking pics in front of stormy sea state. It would have looked like something from Thailand or Malaysia, but that is the state of our infrastructure and connectivity today. It also helps the ability to communicate and organize relief work.

Impressive no doubt, but all the pics are taken from an NH (Are they on the Golden Quad?)

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sanjaykumar » 09 May 2019 06:46

What is truly revealing and sad at the same time is the progress India has made in the past five years, imagine the lost hopes, the lost generations over the past fifty years. If we had only had a different government...


I am not sure it would have made a tremendous difference. Economic development is a non-linear function with an inflection point where interaction and cooperativity of components leads to accelerating growth and synergism. I do not know if economic theory accounts for networks or that much used word- ecosystems.

A network would be where a farmer produces a greater surplus but this now results in a much greater economic yield eg the newly hired pest controller for his fields now hires a private coach for his children, who in turn can afford to go to the beautician twice a month and can afford the farmer's better quality coffee. Thus feedback loops may also be significant at this point.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby darshan » 09 May 2019 06:53


UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 09 May 2019 06:54

Can't remember if this is an update on Satta Bazaar
NDA @ 240, UPA @ 145 post Phase 5
Earlier enthusiasm among punters of a runaway NDA victory is no longer evident given lungi-shivering

Read the whole article: looks like it is fudged by CONGI madarssa math, becomes evident at the end. Can't even find an honest bookie these days, dang! :roll:
If they don't do exit polls, how can Satta Bajaar have good data I wonder. And if they DO exit polls, then they must be as wrong as the media exit polls of 2014. So I am confused.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 09 May 2019 07:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 09 May 2019 06:55

Opposition + regional parties doing all this Hullabaloo about staking the claim to form the Govt. Giving memorandum to the President is just a drama, so when 23 May shock of huge victory for BJP comes, they can feign disbelief and blame EVMs for their defeat. Yesterday bumped into some 2nd generation RSS wala, and this was his observation.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 09 May 2019 06:55

The kind if basics like electricity gas and rural roads that modi gave a huge push to was fixed by cheen and asean tigers before their fast growth phase started

Congis if they had a good head should have completed this task by 1995 and started freeing the economy from 1980

China did get a good deal from west for turning its nack on the ussr while we got pakistan huge arms pkg as a kick

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 09 May 2019 06:57

Congis and leftists are the reason why we are 10-20 years behind cheen on all fronts

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 09 May 2019 07:03

darshanji, translation pls for the PrannoyRoy-type illiterates?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dumal » 09 May 2019 07:05

nachiket wrote:Unlike other alliances, there are multiple characters with massive egos in MGB who all believe they should be the PM. An MGB government will be less stable than any coalition government we have ever had.


My humble opinion, we should discount this “fighting to be PM” problem we like to attribute to the thugs. I think they can easily gather around a neutral 3rd person like was the case with MMS and find a way of dividing up and orchestrating things behind the scenes. Even if MMS may not be available anymore, I think people like RR are primed and waiting in the wings.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 07:06

Singha wrote:The kind if basics like electricity gas and rural roads that modi gave a huge push to was fixed by cheen and asean tigers before their fast growth phase started

Congis if they had a good head should have completed this task by 1995 and started freeing the economy from 1980

China did get a good deal from west for turning its nack on the ussr while we got pakistan huge arms pkg as a kick

This is correct . China spent an enormous amount of money building roads and rail in the 1990s , while dealing with industrial unrest as they tried to shut 100s of lossmaking SOEs (state owned enterprises - what they called PSUs) . Stuff like Beijing-Tianjin expressway were built with Japanese , ADB and WB loans in the 1990s . They also spent on sanitation, irrigation, waterworks and electricity, all of which turbocharged growth later . We on the other hand, barely delivered these basics to the cities, and were a long way from completing it in the villages . At earlier rates, we would have taken until 2030s to get done what got done by this administration . Just basic things - a proper road, a power line, sanitation. Couldn’t get any of that done for 70+ years until this admin got all of them over the 90% coverage level.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 09 May 2019 07:07

Basically Satta Bajaar has not changed its prediction since March. Which suggests that they either have hugely prescient data on the minds of every voter - or they are just taking bets mostly from amateurs with no inside info at all.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 09 May 2019 07:11

Suraj: OT for this thread, but perhaps on the Indian econ thread you could pick up this discussion and build on that observation. I agree now that basic electricity connection (single-point) has reached pretty-much every village. Need to go 2 pakistan outdoors has been immensely reduced, though I have doubts about the functionality of the indoor SwBht pakistans. So what becomes possible now? Ppl have a little money in their bank accounts, they have basic insurance (catastrophic), health insurance is available.... what is the next stage of the rural economy? (if NDA comes back to power..)

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby fanne » 09 May 2019 07:18

As far as voting on caste in spite of benefits - As you enter Eastern UP where sense of honor is strong (going to northern Bihar), more and more people will vote for Modi if benefitted and not caste. And perhaps that's the reason BJP and everyone (opinion polls) have been giving BJP landslide here (40 seats). BJP has done quite well in Western and central UP seats, Eastern can only boosts its chances.
Again not to jinx it, hopefully we are not missing something like what was missed in 2004.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby arshyam » 09 May 2019 07:26

fanne wrote:..hopefully we are not missing something like what was missed in 2004.

One indicator arguing against this is the voter turnout this time. Much higher than 2004. So let's see.

I am still quite sure that BJP and NDA will do better than 2014.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 07:40

The earlier data I quoted shows just how hard it was to assert a development message focusing on accomplishment in 2004. Just look at those figures . Electricity ? Sanitation ? Road access ? Clean water ? Pretty much every metric was only 1 in 10 having it , at best 2/10

Fast forward to 2009 and it’s all about 3.5/10 . By 2014 it’s all at 4-4.5/10 .

Imagine how many more years away they would have taken ? Instead, in 2019, multiple basic metrics - road access, electricity, toilets, clean fuel, banking and credit - are at >9/10 coverage .

When you go at election time and say “I’ve done a lot! Vote for me so I can do more” , how much does that work when only 1/10 have seen vikas, vs >9/10 ?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rajsunder » 09 May 2019 07:44

RK lakshman's cartoon depicting rajiv and family lakshadweep trip

https://i.redd.it/8to36j6in1x21.jpg

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Pratyush » 09 May 2019 08:31

rajsunder wrote:RK lakshman's cartoon depicting rajiv and family lakshadweep trip

https://i.redd.it/8to36j6in1x21.jpg


Just tweeted it.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 09 May 2019 08:42

Dr Sachin Reddy @snsachinnandu

An interesting perspective from Hindi heartland based on my interactions- the caste-neutral vote block(which NEVER votes based on caste) which was earlier 10-15% and very unstable has transformed into a robust, big 25-30% block

Every analyst is discounting this!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby darshan » 09 May 2019 08:50

UlanBatori wrote:darshanji, translation pls for the PrannoyRoy-type illiterates?

Just caught up with reading the thread and noticed that the translation might get me banned. Probably leaving it as linked is still fine. Recently I have seen big uptick for videos from India speaks daily on WhatsApp traffic on the supreme court vs Modi subject. https://www.indiaspeaksdaily.com/

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hnair » 09 May 2019 08:54

rajsunder wrote:RK lakshman's cartoon depicting rajiv and family lakshadweep trip

https://i.redd.it/8to36j6in1x21.jpg


There was an incident during that trip, wherein, while vacationing, he helped save a whale that got beached in Lakshwadeep.

Prompt comes the RK Laxman cartoon, wherein two aides were talking in the foreground of that whale-rescue scene: "Always helps the big fish to escape". One of the RKL's finest

(could not find it online!)

hnair
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hnair » 09 May 2019 09:13

Ok, my biggest concern that I had since 2011, with Shree Modi still stands: He has put us in a single-point-failure Hemu situation and has done nothing to mitigate that. If anyone here has interacted with Field Marshal, it becomes obvious he is Weapons-grade asli maal, machined to finest tolerances for an SLBM tip. But that means he can't even charm a cobra, without turning it into a crisp. Which in turn means, he is not an understudy who can step in seamlessly. And in order to deal with this long term, a General Staff (who rides, camps, eats, learns etc with the Field Marshal for field excersizes and grueling poll campaign) consisting of young second in command to deal with a local situation is not there for lots of states (particularly south). Seen that with Sabarimala situation :( Even now, that clown Sreedharan Pillai is groping around from one gaffe to another.

This is there in administration too. For FDI or big infra project approvals, the vast centralisation excersize at PMO had its ups (cleaner administration) but had its downsides (delays in reviews by babudom and decisions due to backlog, logjams during busy times etc). Approaching most of ministers (except a small handful who weilded genuine autonomy) are deemed to be pointless and going through super-babus became a practice.

I suspect the recent promotional stories of The Roadrunner as an alternative is an excersize in mitigating the above aspect to the corporate/international people. The Roadrunner (along with one or two) has a lot of autonomy, because he is blinding fast in his execution and is trusted by the PM. And not otherwise, as was speculated here. Hopefully by the next term, this single-point situation is taken care of!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby bhavani » 09 May 2019 09:26

Telugu leaders both CBN and KCR seem to be overactive in working for a Non-BJP government.

Jagan is on a Holiday. If BJP really needs 10-15 MP Seats to form a government, Jagan will jump into the NDA bandwagon. I really hope it does not come to it.

Right now being a telugu guy, i really hate CBN. Lost whatever respect i had for him. i literally puked seeing him Hugging Pappu.

I have always said it and will say again. Andhra people will be haunted forever with the credit of bringing down Vajpayee gov. AP leaders have always seen Central gov as a way to get contracts for their cronies, they were never interested in bringing some thing for their People. For Ex, when mamata became Railway minister, she laid a number of new trains for Bengal. Ap gave 40 Seats to first UPA gov, what did we get nothing Nada. All of our trains were extended to Orissa.

we were a selfish bunch and we got super Selfish corrupt leaders.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 09 May 2019 09:44

I am suspecting this NDA will not come type of posturing is to answer lot of positivity on SM till phase 5. It could be that the positivity was hurting these parties and now they are spreading these news. So lets be little careful.

My own calc is also NDA short of majority but not by too large margin to not to able to form government.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 09 May 2019 09:45

Note that phase 6 and 7 is where BJP has stronger chances. So take these news from that angle.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 09:52

Does anyone have anecdotes about the popularity of Mann Ki Baat ? It’s a blind spot of this forum, but Modi has diligently conducted it every month since inception, and now it has close to 60 episodes .

I’m asking this, because the anecdotes of his connect with the populace is unnerving, at a level seemingly more than even JLN and IGs manufactured haloes .

While thinking about it I realized he actually talks to people every month, and that it’s possible thru AIR and all the dialects it’s transmitted in, that it has potentially huge audience who appreciate him as quite literally a leader.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 09 May 2019 10:19

I listened to one last summer
He advised people to keep a pitcher of water outside their doors in the heat for wandering animals and birds to drink from

Very dharmic thought

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 09 May 2019 10:23

Imo both AP and KL need to mend their thought process

Both play the exaggerated victimhood and entitlement game. Both have a superiority complex via gulf/h1 pervasive presence, gold, ias/jee kamandu squads...

Many parts of bhubaneswar are still without water and power but i dont see odiyas cursing modi and praising some sheikh who promised 500cr

People lose a lot of goodwill through sustained posturing


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