2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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Singha
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 11 May 2019 08:15

another howler for sharma ji last month. the days of these jokers monopolising the discourse via print media and DD are long over in SM era.
but they still think a imposing figure, clipped st stephens english will give them "respect" and "credibility" :rotfl:
give me a genuine guy not these khandani lutyens durbari dogs and i will listen reasonably.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sab ... ma-2027629

SHIMLA: Senior Congress leader Anand Sharma on Tuesday said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is behaving like the supreme leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un. Addressing media persons here, Mr Sharma said: "Recently Prime Minister Modi said that India was ready with 18 nuclear missiles to be used. No President or Prime Minister of any nation would disclose such sensitive matters but Modi ji has been giving such irresponsible statements for so long."
"There is only one nation and leader in the world -- Kim Jong-un who is known for such statements on nuclear weapons and it seems PM Modi is behaving like him," he said.

"It would be disgraceful and unfortunate for a democratic country like India that a prime minister is comparing himself with such countries," he added. He further accused the Prime Minister of misleading the people of the country, and said the BJP had spent around Rs. 4,397 crore on advertisements.

"PM Modi poses a threat to every institution of the country. No Indian Prime Minister has ever claimed Army as his party," he said.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sanjaykumar » 11 May 2019 08:16

Kashi wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:Please do consider why Christians or Muslims do not get into testicular torsion about Japanese idolatry, pantheism, polytheism,phallus veneration. Of course they would be jeered off the islands.


You'll be surprised that it's actually quite the opposite, both within and outside Japan.



I am interested in learning. Please elaborate.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby SriKumar » 11 May 2019 08:21

Appropos of his 'no family' comments......
If those are his actual words, Anand Sharma is a bigger dimwit than Rahul Gandhi. I mean it in all seriousness. This comment ranks right up there with mani Shankar iyer's arrogant chauwalla comment.

Any aam Indian, and I mean, every effing average Indian knows that not having a family when you can afford to have one, is a sacrifice on a personal level, especially when doing public service. The poorest living in slums have families......this dimbulb called Anand Sharma is giving free publicity and ammo to NaMo.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 11 May 2019 08:27

in indian history there are countless examples of rich powerful people who gave it all up to seek knowledge and serve and became like sadhus.

buddha, mahavira, chandragupta maurya relinquished to his son bindusara and became a wandering jain monk finally attaining samadhi in sravanabelagola , bahubali gomateswara (of sravanagelagola) who saw the truth when fighting with his brother over who would be king .....

but these things are neither taught or respected to deracinated elites like congi elites.

to make such a sacrifice itself - by giving up everything material, they get the power and freedom to do anything....

interestingly both mahavira and gomateswara were from the ikshvaku dynasty of ayodhya...another ancient link to ayodhya as a holy place.
its like the jerusalem of indic religions....layer upon layer of history until the ghazi babur arrived on the scene.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 11 May 2019 08:34

Prof. Hari Om
‏@Prof_Hariom
12h12 hours ago

Dear outraged Sikhs in Punjab, Delhi, Haryana & Himachal Pradesh,

You one vote for the butcher of 15000 Sikhs, incl 3000 Sikhs in Delhi, in 1984 @RahulGandhi 's @INCIndia on May 12 & 19 would mean a vote for your murderer.

Victory of INC in Punjab will be your defeat.

Sit up.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby arshyam » 11 May 2019 08:40

Singha wrote:in latest congi foot in mouth disease (day when RG asks Pitroda to apologize), spokesman Anand sharma mocks the PM for not having any family to holiday on INS Viraat with.

PM will pick up on this in his last round of rallies

What can one do if the bowler insists on bowling slow full toss deliveries ball after ball in the slog overs? The cappy will keep hitting it out of the stadium onlee :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 11 May 2019 08:40

this guy is my maximalist equivalent on the tu160 front :) ( I swear to all abrahamic gods it WILL happen one day @ afb yelehanka...Hari Om)

Abhishek Singh


@Abhi_4_Nation
13h13 hours ago
More
Let me confirm and put my Done and Dusted tweet for Yadav Dynasty in #LS2019
1. @yadavakhilesh is losing Azamgarh
2. Dimple Yadav losing from Kannauj
3. Akshay Yadav losing Ferozabad
4. Dharmendra Yadav losing Badayun
Only Mulayam is winning, Only
@BJP4India 60-65+ in UP

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 11 May 2019 08:48

https://www.opindia.com/2019/05/italian ... ar-a-liar/

Italian journalist accuses journalist Ajai Shukla of being sexist, calls journalist Karan Thapar a liar
While Thapar lied to her, Ajai Shukla cast aspersions that Francesca had ulterior motives of releasing this article in the middle of Indian elections

---
read it all. iyerval has also supported her.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 11 May 2019 08:56

Singha wrote:in latest congi foot in mouth disease (day when RG asks Pitroda to apologize), spokesman Anand sharma mocks the PM for not having any family to holiday on INS Viraat with.

PM will pick up on this in his last round of rallies

As it happened many times in the past , it all started with Coupta ji few days back.
Then every other congie pidi on SM started pushing that line .
Looking in his whatapp messages of his followers rah rah ing the video of Coupta ji, Anand Sharma got duped into thinking that its a real line to take and took it in front of the mike. :rotfl:
Rest BJP has to follow up.

https://youtu.be/hKldePbdNzk

Image
As per Coupta ji video: "Young couple enjoying holiday on Lakshadweep while INS Viraat is pointed & looking the other way
Last edited by Lilo on 11 May 2019 09:08, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Gus » 11 May 2019 08:57

Excellent points on the definition of terms and what one stands for and use that as a marker to identify and defend against hinduphobia. RSS has a long way to go...only now they are legally defending against the slander of RSS killed Gandhi.

The discussions on this can be an article at swarajaya

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Gus » 11 May 2019 09:02

This whole Rajiv Gandhi line of attack shows how far BJP has come from the previous elections when they were always scrambling to react to hitjobs and agenda set by Congress media and mumbling denials and trying outrage etc.

Fun to watch the reversal.

Cong media people are all lining up with advise to Sam to shut up.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 11 May 2019 09:06

Rana Ayyub
Verified account
@RanaAyyub
11h11 hours ago
More Rana Ayyub Retweeted ANI
jab hindi nahi aati, toh apna muh band rakha karein

ANI
Verified account
@ANI
Sam Pitroda, Congress on his remarks on '84 riots: The statement I made was completely twisted, taken out of context because my Hindi isn't good, what I meant was 'jo hua vo bura hua,' I couldn't translate 'bura' in my mind.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby CRamS » 11 May 2019 09:16

arshyam wrote:
Singha wrote:in latest congi foot in mouth disease (day when RG asks Pitroda to apologize), spokesman Anand sharma mocks the PM for not having any family to holiday on INS Viraat with.


PM will pick up on this in his last round of rallies


My goodness, this is a long hop from Anand Sharma. ModiJi will hit this for a 150 meter sixer. All he has to say is that entire Hindustan is his family, to roaring chants of Modi, Modi :-). Or he may come up with something even better.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudarshan » 11 May 2019 09:19

Singha wrote:Prof. Hari Om
‏@Prof_Hariom
12h12 hours ago

Dear outraged Sikhs in Punjab, Delhi, Haryana & Himachal Pradesh,

You one vote for the butcher of 15000 Sikhs, incl 3000 Sikhs in Delhi, in 1984 @RahulGandhi 's @INCIndia on May 12 & 19 would mean a vote for your murderer.

Victory of INC in Punjab will be your defeat.

Sit up.


Rajiv's ku-karm (pardon if that's the wrong word, my Hindi ain't too good either) turning out to be to BJP's benefit.

Moral: The law of karma will anyway bring the consequences to the doer. If the original karm was evil, the consequences will be so too, but but but - if that person is your opponent, and you prepare and purify yourself, then his ku-karm consequences will be also to your benefit. If you don't prepare and purify yourself, those consequences will certainly devastate your opponent, but with no benefit to you.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kashi » 11 May 2019 09:30

sanjaykumar wrote:I am interested in learning. Please elaborate.


What I meant was that do get into the "testicular torsions" over these both within and outside Japan, mocking and scorning local practices and customs such as Hatsumōde (new year shrine visits), Obon (Ancestral worship/thanksgiving), Shichi-Go-San (Rite of passage for boys and girls, usually at a shrine) and many others. Moaning about "lack of true faith", how the societal norms are not aligned with "Judeo-Christian values" you get the drift.

But we go off topic.

Perhaps Suraj-san will also be able to shed some light on this.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kanson » 11 May 2019 09:46

Based on signals from BJP HQ, close to 5th phase & after 5th phase there seems to be a big relief. I leave it here without my interpretation.

Whatever that signal may be, bjp is going to cross 300 all the way for nda to close on 400.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 11 May 2019 09:48

Singha wrote:Rana Ayyub
Verified account
@RanaAyyub
11h11 hours ago
More Rana Ayyub Retweeted ANI
jab hindi nahi aati, toh apna muh band rakha karein

ANI
Verified account
@ANI
Sam Pitroda, Congress on his remarks on '84 riots: The statement I made was completely twisted, taken out of context because my Hindi isn't good, what I meant was 'jo hua vo bura hua,' I couldn't translate 'bura' in my mind.



first I'm hearing of sam pitgaya having a mind.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2019 09:48

Kashi-san , SHQ is busy on Line right this minute planing young ones Shichi-Go-San later this year , with her family in Japan :)

Japan in general has a more grounded view of their local customs than we do. Even the elite do Hatsumoude on New Years night . I have done it a couple of times now and will again this winter , not at Meiji shrine tho - too crowded and too far.

Japan has a sense of deep rooted exceptionalism that ensures that despite all their modernity they stick to their traditions fiercely because it’s what makes them Japanese .

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 11 May 2019 09:49

Karan M wrote:The wests aim is as India grows stronger its full of quasi-westerners who ape them.

While I totally agree with the sentiment, could you expand on this - who could be classified as the 'west' in this context? Evanjihadis, or WaPo/NYT Liberals?

Everytime there a white cop shoots a black man, one comes across an oft-repeated aphorism, "If only they loved Black people as much as they love Black culture". With respect to India too, a version of it seems very apt. It seems like they want all the side benefits, ranging from Beer Yoga to Turmeric Chai Tea Latte and 'Mindfulness', but end up providing platforms to Darkha Butta and Chaddi Subramanya kinds, as well as RAPEs like Taseer. It's rare to come across a Gora bad mouthing India though, since they seemed to have outsourced that to all kinds of gungadins. Even in this issue of Time, to balance out Taseer, they had an article by Ian Bremmer on why Modi is the right choice for India.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kashi » 11 May 2019 10:02

Suraj wrote:Kashi-san , SHQ is busy on Line right this minute planing young ones Shichi-Go-San later this year , with her family in Japan :)


Suraj-san, your boy is 5 years old already?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2019 10:04

Will be three :)

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 11 May 2019 10:04

nachiket wrote:The Chinese can make it work because they go the whole hog and assert absolute control over all media active within China. That is what we will have to do as well and I don't think of that as a positive development, because unlike China, the ideology of the govt. in power in India can change 180 degrees every 5 years. And the same state control of media will become a huge liability then. Half measures like locking up a few journalists will not work when you leave a hundred others free to cry about it in full visibility of the international press. In our system, we can't really go beyond that though, nor should we.


Theres some merit to being an asshole and China inspires on that front. But all of brand India cannot hinge on being assholes. It wont fly with the Aam janata, theres has to be a something genuine and compelling as well..

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kashi » 11 May 2019 10:21

Suraj wrote:Will be three :)


Many congratulations :D

But I was under the impression that it was supposed to be Shichi (7) and San (3) for girls and Go (5) for boys?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Katare » 11 May 2019 10:44

Suraj-san,
67% voting guarantees a wave in Modi’s favor. That high a number can’t be a new normal, it had to be a wave. This is a solid and unbiased fact!

I suspect finally a true HinduRaj is coming back to Bharat!!!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 11 May 2019 11:15

It may be new normal for youngistan in towns
But to bring out that many rural people in heat wave conditions is tough

So i agree with wave theory

Reports of huge nos of purbanchalis in delhi packed in trains heading east to vote

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2019 11:19

Katare boss , I’ll wait until May 23 to decide whether to agree vehemently with you or ban you for jinxing it :)

Jokes apart, yes the turnout data this decade is very unusual . In fact turnout this GE is even more unusual than 2014 because back then there were obvious sign and decipherable reasons .

This time, the situation is extremely anomalous . It is very vey rare in electoral history anywhere for the incumbent to get a wave in their favor, and also get a rise in turnout during a re-election cycle .

For example, Obama’s re-election does not count - there was a significant drop in turnout as well as his electoral college votes then. Neither does Clinton’s. Neither could avoid a huge drop in turnout the second time. The only one sort of close is Reagan in 1984 . Now that is an extreme wave.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dileep » 11 May 2019 11:53

For dealing with hostile DDM, we have the Singapore model of LKY. Use existing benign looking libel laws, and hound them relentlessly through the legal system. Of course, LKY had the courts supporting him.

It is like judiciously waiting for a loose ball and hitting it hard.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2019 11:59

Singha wrote:Reports of huge nos of purbanchalis in delhi packed in trains heading east to vote

Yes I’ve seen multiple reports of this . But I don’t understand why it is there . One can claim ‘Modi wave #2’ but I don’t want justification from others . Not much has been reported of detailed interviews of such people traveling back to ensure that they vote .

Keep in mind that UP and BH have seen substantial loss in your workforce moving elsewhere for jobs, especially all the Biharis in Kerala, Bangalore and Chennai people refer to . For all of them to go back en masse to vote is very surprising .

UP has no historical record of high voter turnout . The caste groups have traditionally voted in a stable manner. A wave once is ok - outliers are always a possibility . But twice , for the same guy ? I’d love to see what the exit polls say about this phenomenon .

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 11 May 2019 12:05

Dileep wrote:For dealing with hostile DDM, we have the Singapore model of LKY. Use existing benign looking libel laws, and hound them relentlessly through the legal system. Of course, LKY had the courts supporting him.

It is like judiciously waiting for a loose ball and hitting it hard.


when jetli and gadkari had them on the ropes, they both "withdrew" their cases. This is the lootyens redux.

Had the prosecutions been taken to their logical conclusions and heavy fines/compensation extracted from the libelous rogues, it would have sent a very strong message to all the others to back off.

prithiviraj chauhan is alive and well and was last seen in lootyens dilli. Its really sad how things panned out.

If jetli and gadkari had simply followed through with their cases, this chowkidar chor hai nonsense would have ben nipped in the bud a long time ago and pappu would not have opened his pie hole.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dileep » 11 May 2019 12:06

Going back to Satta Market: I presume the bets are for exact seat numbers, not seat range. This way, there may be a bell curve indicating a range. Secondly, there are no separate data collection system. It is the 'punters' who, by virtue of placing bets, contribute to the data. This system have the inherent disadvantages of any such system, like the herd phenomenon.

So, the bookie places his bet by setting the initial odds, and then go on adjusting the odds as the punters place bets.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 11 May 2019 12:12

chetak wrote:
Dileep wrote:For dealing with hostile DDM, we have the Singapore model of LKY. Use existing benign looking libel laws, and hound them relentlessly through the legal system. Of course, LKY had the courts supporting him.

It is like judiciously waiting for a loose ball and hitting it hard.


when jetli and gadkari had them on the ropes, they both "withdrew" their cases. This is the lootyens redux.

Had the prosecutions been taken to their logical conclusions and heavy fines/compensation extracted from the libelous rogues, it would have sent a very strong message to all the others to back off.

prithiviraj chauhan is alive and well and was last seen in lootyens dilli. Its really sad how things panned out.

If jetli and gadkari had simply followed through with their cases, this chowkidar chor hai nonsense would have ben nipped in the bud a long time ago and pappu would not have opened his pie hole.



Who knows how things work?!
Perhaps, this was well intended. Leopards are not able to change their spots, and our side knows this damn well.
So, had it been nipped in the bud, how would Pitgayas/MSI continue to commit their faux pas? ... like the Qureshi brothers did in 1971.
Last edited by aylamrin on 11 May 2019 12:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 11 May 2019 12:13

Suraj, two theories or inferences you mention regarding higher turnout: anti incumbency or wave. Looking at anti-incumbency, IMO, this feeling that public has to boot out the incumbent can and will be felt across the country, one can hear and feel disenchantment and disgruntled sentiments among the masses. The other phenomena of a wave, which is polar opposite to first case because the publc believe the incumbent or atleast they believe the incumbent is better than the alternative, will come out in numbers as shows by the turnouts so far. Considering that the rural citizens matter most while considering polling numbers. Elections, like many things, is stochastic rather than deterministic, it's all about probabilities till the actual result comes out. IMO the wave theory has a higher probability than anti-incumbency theory.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 11 May 2019 12:22

Dileep wrote:Going back to Satta Market: I presume the bets are for exact seat numbers, not seat range. This way, there may be a bell curve indicating a range. Secondly, there are no separate data collection system. It is the 'punters' who, by virtue of placing bets, contribute to the data. This system have the inherent disadvantages of any such system, like the herd phenomenon.

So, the bookie places his bet by setting the initial odds, and then go on adjusting the odds as the punters place bets.


the punters are placing bets based on inputs coming directly from the constituencies via routes obviously trusted by the punter to give him accurate information and hence calculate the odds and risks. obviously, all inputs can not/will not be accurate or even partially right.

It is like betting at the turf club driven as always by rumors, innuendo and "secret" info directly from the stables and overheard drunken conversations of jockeys and trainers and owners.

when we were in college we used to frequent a famous restaurant where the hoi polloi of the racing world used to gather during the racing season and the maître d always made a killing in every race he bet on because he had multiple inputs from his patrons whom he looked after very well indeed.

satta bazaar has similar inputs, some good, some bad and the majority of the inputs are just trash. The bookies always rig the odds in their own favor and the house always wins.

the serious punters are the politicos and industrialists and shadowy gangsters who have solid information, and they bet really big, quietly and in private.

Their wins and losses never make the news.
Last edited by chetak on 11 May 2019 12:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2019 12:26

Dileep wrote:For dealing with hostile DDM, we have the Singapore model of LKY. Use existing benign looking libel laws, and hound them relentlessly through the legal system. Of course, LKY had the courts supporting him.

It is like judiciously waiting for a loose ball and hitting it hard.

Yes the LKY example is very pertinent to what I described previously. It requires a professional organization that's constantly out to bury anyone making defamatory or libelous commentary about the RSS, VHP, Hindutva etc. The sheer amount of editorializing about even basic details is incredible. RSS shakhas were described for example, as places where people in ill fitting shorts shoot guns in between chanting for expulsion of Muslims.

Here are organizations the Jews have (Primus ought to know them well):
Anti-Defamation League - 105 years old
American Jewish Congress - 101 years old
American-Israel Public Affairs Committe - 56 years old

Even the Arabs and Muslims have:
American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee - 40 years old
CAIR - 25 years old

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby eklavya » 11 May 2019 12:48

Like 2014, 2019 election is being contested around economy. Will the result be similar?

Farmer distress and cow politics: If there is one unanimous view emanating from UP travel, it is that farmer distress is real, and that cow politics has deepened the distress among all, farmers and non-farmers. I have yet to come across anyone defending this policy, whether a BJP supporter or not. (I did not meet a self-confessed RSS man, who might have a different view). Can anyone come up with a defence about this lose-lose policy? The poor Hindu farmer is hurt; Muslims have lost jobs, and in some instances, life; the rural economy is hurt. Yet, Hindu India continues to support this madness. Platitudes about gaushalas are heard. What does this imply for voting in UP? Modi does not get the blame, Yogi does.

Conclusion: The number one policy concern of the new government should be a completely revamped policy towards agriculture and animal husbandry.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2019 13:08

Karthik S wrote:Suraj, two theories or inferences you mention regarding higher turnout: anti incumbency or wave. Looking at anti-incumbency, IMO, this feeling that public has to boot out the incumbent can and will be felt across the country, one can hear and feel disenchantment and disgruntled sentiments among the masses. The other phenomena of a wave, which is polar opposite to first case because the publc believe the incumbent or atleast they believe the incumbent is better than the alternative, will come out in numbers as shows by the turnouts so far. Considering that the rural citizens matter most while considering polling numbers. Elections, like many things, is stochastic rather than deterministic, it's all about probabilities till the actual result comes out. IMO the wave theory has a higher probability than anti-incumbency theory.

I agree with you in theory for most part. The major inconsistency is that:
The other phenomena of a wave, which is polar opposite to first case because the publc believe the incumbent or atleast they believe the incumbent is better than the alternative, will come out in numbers as shows by the turnouts so far.

That is almost never what happens. Usually, a lack of palpable anti-incumbency sentiment (yes I agree, if it's there, it's very easy to tell and is seldom hidden) almost always results in a measurable drop in voter turnout. That's because of the confluence of two reasons - there aren't enough people upset enough to come vote against, and the ones voting in support are reasonably confident of aggregating sufficient votes in favor and winning a second time, that their own lack of enthusiasm also causes a drop in vote share. Let's call it the apathy drop - there's not enough people either happy or angry to make the extra effort.

Instead 2019 shows:

Code: Select all

Ph  2014 2019   Delta
1 68.77% 69.5%  +0.73
2 69.62% 69.44% -0.18
3 67.15% 68.40% +1.25
4 63.05% 65.51% +2.46
5 61.7%  63.3%  +1.6

These numbers are pretty astonishing for a re-election cycle, where there's no significant rallying around an opposition candidate - there's not even a single talismanic candidate. So if there's no potential opposition to combat, why would those in support be coming out in progressively increasing numbers (delta is generally increasing phase by phase) ? Where is the complacency factor ?

This is why I stated that an increased turnout in a re-election cycle after a previous wave is such a rare thing. If it comes to pass, the last time I recall it happening in a major democracy, is Reagan's back to back wins in 1980 and 1984, the second of which had similar increase in turnout and a ridiculously high majority.

I remember reading Time magazines of that era a few years later, some of my earliest political reading. One had a picture of someone jumping in the air in joy, reflecting the popular zietgiest of happiness with the improvement. Reagan was propelled by a feel good sentiment as the stagflation era of the 1970s came to an end. Paul Volcker's shock therapy at the Fed broke the back of inflation in 1982, and as growth returned, so did public mood in time for 1984 elections. Michael Jackson, Steven Spielberg etc were all creating pop culture icons of that era that are still well known. The Olympics in LA were well done. I'm sure there were US based BRFites of that era who can describe it, and how they guessed it would lead to a strong mandate in re-election.

In summary, it is a very rare political situation that someone gets propelled to power by a wave, and then gets re-elected by another wave. What almost always happens instead is that the person gets comfortably re-elected, but there's a notable reduction in turnout because of the apathy drop. People are not normally motivated to make the same effort twice over, after they've already accomplished the goal once.

But when people are even more motivated after a previous wave, the conclusions are hard to easily make. The reference examples suggest it'll be an even bigger wave, but this sort of thing happens so infrequently that it's hard to say so confidently. If confidence is needed, Katare has it..

Atmavik
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Atmavik » 11 May 2019 13:22

^^ so we are in for a big surprise on may 23rd one way or the other ? one issue with 2004 India shining campaign was that BJP cader was de moralized and did not show up as ABV could not push for Mandir, Uniform civil code or any dharmic reform. it is different this time around but the turnout numbers are unusual

Suraj
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2019 13:26

This election is NOTHING like 2004 in terms of the parameter under discussion - voting turnout. 2004 was a boring election in that regard, with 58% turnout in line with long term average, a drop from 60% in the previous one in 1999 when the population voted decisively to give NDA a mandate and end the political uncertainty of that era.

suryag
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby suryag » 11 May 2019 13:30

Gurus in the south money distribution is rampant however, don’t see much of that happening in North

abhijitm
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 11 May 2019 13:50

BJP 200, NDA 240
slim chance of BJP coming back to power


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