2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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IndraD
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 16 May 2019 21:43

Singha wrote:चौकीदार #GauravPradhan
@DrGPradhan
May 14

Midnight meeting with family, slaves and doot from masters. Italian furious

Election over on May 19th but action begins

Planning

Major disturbance in India
Control SC and flood it with PIL. Choke system. Nothing should work
Take out Modi by any means at the earliest

Singha saab of all u shd be the last person to fall for this charalton (Dr G Pradhan), recently he asked some one to pay Rs 8 lakh, it is unfortunate RW has own share of trash
he is a rumour monger, acting as if CIA to ISI are in his touch
used to claim he lives in US, turned out to be in Gaziabad just to begin w various charges he faces

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 21:46

aylamrin wrote:
Suraj wrote:The India Today ‘exit poll data’ is, as they revealed, dummy data for the sake of demonstrating how their May 19-23 TV shows will be . A clever trick indeed . The nicest way to stop such clever tricks is to have a high profile lawsuit alleging attempt to sway voters before Sunday . That’ll teach them, and others, the price of such cleverness .

The price of this channel is 1.18 (including GST). Have to hit where it hurts the most. Keep a list of brands that place ads on this channel (Top 5/Top 10). Launch a boycott campaign - reason they place ads on a BIF media. Hence they would have to choose one of the two, BIF media or its market share.

It is hard to get a boycott campaign together on short notice, as compared to a high profile lawsuit. India Today could just have emblazoned 'dummy data' across the numbers so no one tried to read into it, but by deliberately misleading people, they've set themselves up for legal trouble.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 16 May 2019 21:47

Singha wrote:learnt of it newly now

Image


this is exactly how guys like cambridge analytica and other clones precipitated brexit


If an organisation's research and the principles of sound policy suggest a particular idea that lies outside the Overton window, what is to be done? Shift the window. Since commonly held ideas, attitudes and presumptions frame what is politically possible and create the "window," a change in the opinions held by politicians and the people, in general, will shift it. Move the window of what is politically possible and those policies previously impractical can become the next great popular and legislative rage.

Likewise, policies that were once acceptable become politically infeasible as the window shifts away from them. rogue agencies, deep state entities, proselytizing FFNGOs interested in changing demographics to suit their objectives can shape public opinion and shift the Overton window by educating legislators and the public about sound policy, by creating a vision for how things could be done, by conducting research and presenting facts, and by involving people in the exchange of ideas.

CA like organisations used inconspicuously targeted messaging to sway vulnerable subsets of the population, using subtle and intelligently focussed communication that remained instilled subliminally, followed up and strengthened by others that reinforced and expanded the original message and were sophisticated and understated, while being ingeniously suggestive of the action that was ultimately desirable.

they simply created a new window, shifted it and influenced people to buy into it.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 16 May 2019 21:49

Suraj wrote:
aylamrin wrote:The price of this channel is 1.18 (including GST). Have to hit where it hurts the most. Keep a list of brands that place ads on this channel (Top 5/Top 10). Launch a boycott campaign - reason they place ads on a BIF media. Hence they would have to choose one of the two, BIF media or its market share.

It is hard to get a boycott campaign together on short notice, as compared to a high profile lawsuit. India Today could just have emblazoned 'dummy data' across the numbers so no one tried to read into it, but by deliberately misleading people, they've set themselves up for legal trouble.


both the PMO and the EC need to be alerted

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 16 May 2019 21:53

ramana wrote:
Hari Nair wrote:Worth a read:
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/lok-sabha-polls-sp-bsp-gathbandhan-likely-to-squeeze-bjps-tally-in-uttar-pradesh-but-not-enough-to-affect-narendra-modis-impact-6640901.html

That appears to be an antidote of sorts to the affliction of "dhoti-shivers" till 23-24 May, as the esteemed BRF members call it!

Niran who is in the trenches in UP says BJP will get over 60 in UP. So no need to worry
My view is this election the results in UP, Bengal, and Odissa will determine the results.
Bengal + Odissa need to give 36 to BJP.
And UP 60+ game over.



RANT ALERT ON


Difficult to envisage WB more than 5. What i get readings from ground. Calcutta which is yet to go to elections, everyone is apprehensive. 'We will decide whether to vote or not on Sunday. Depends on what happens that day. There is going to be trouble. " Hooghy and Howrah- real people weren't so active in voting. And rural Burdwan and W.Midnapore- people were intimidated from casting their vote. So realistically prospects in WB don't look so bright.

Have to fall back on Orissa and UP for the numbers.


RANT ALERT OFF

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 22:04

The threat of violence is a significant risk factor WB voters in the elections. When I saw the earlier upgraded estimates giving BJP 15+ or even 20+ seats in WB, I wasn't necessarily impressed, but I did think 'many people are going to die because of this result'. It is sad but the likely consequence of Mamata losing her grip on power - at this point it's clear she's almost literally threatening to cause widespread hurt if people don't vote her back in. Now, that's a dangerous game even politically - either she'll cause people to cower and vote her back in just to avoid the pain, or they'll defiantly kick her out.

As a result I find all WB predictions impossible to fathom. There's clearly a groundswell, but the question is when the push comes to shove, are people willing to make that ek aur dhakka, or will they postpone that plan ? IMHO, I am more wont to believe the former, simply because too many people have 'outed' themselves as preferring BJP in public rallies and they know the TMC goons know of them, so stepping back now means they're at greatest risk of reprisals post May 23, and therefore are motivated to do everything to shove them out.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 22:04

chetak wrote:both the PMO and the EC need to be alerted

Please post all EC related resources you know of so people can forward screen shots etc to them.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 16 May 2019 22:08

^^ Lots of videos surfacing on WB voting showing booth workers guiding voters to press button on EVM. The booth worker is standing all the time inside the booth where the EVM is installed. With such booth level intimidation I'm not sure how BJP (or anyone else) has any chance.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 16 May 2019 22:10

You could rant without quoting my post no?

While I respect you right to rant, I trust Amit Shah and the Chabi Index level 5.0 shrieks from Jihadidi.

She wouldn't be screaming so high decibel level if BJP is getting 5 seats as you say.

My advice don't hang out with the traditional BJP haters. They will put high pass filter.

Suraj a vote in Bengal is not just a vote for NaMo as in other places but a vote for change from Jihadidi.
Hence her high decibel antics.
vimal if you note the video you think BJP or EC has not?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 16 May 2019 22:12

By invoking Art 324, EC has essentially said there is little chance of fair election in Bengal and the State police are being used as uniformed goondas of the political party. Its the maximum they can do as Model Code of Conduct precludes Art 356 due to elections.

So far in 70 years Art 324 was never invoked.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 22:15

nachiket wrote:Suraj, weren't the 2015 Bihar elections basically a 2 cornered fight since everybody had joined one of two alliances? It was basically NDA vs the original Mahathigbandhan. And TC didn't get it wrong by a little they bungled it royally.

As for PP, looking at his unbelievable projections right now, I will either declare him the Mahdi on May 23 or stop listening to what he says altogether :mrgreen:

It was a three cornered fight, with the top 3 each winning between 55-80 seats (I think 80, 75 and 55), and INC winning a further 28 or something. That's about as splintered a verdict as you can get, in a 240 odd seat assembly. The instability of the whole thing was such that Nitish jumped ship within ~2 years.

I've stated this before and I'll state it again - pollster results are a function of their methodology and the kind of election they're covering. Some pollsters (e.g. Nate Silver) do poorly at wave election forecasting. I don't know why Nate gets such praise - his model only worked in very simple conditions.

PP on the other hand, gets wave elections well - he twice went against the grain (GE2014, UP 2017) and got them right. Had he been sent to US, he might have accurately gauged the resentment against the establishment and the MAGA votebank. He has no record at a false positive in a wave election, i.e. he has never asserted a wave election when there wasn't one. However he has one instance of a false negative, where in CG 2018 he didn't notice the wave against the incumbent, but then no one did, including the INC. He's able to gauge the sentiment in a tight fight or in a multi way contest, but his model - like pretty much anyone's model - cannot forecast seat-share accurately. It's just not possible to do so without failure with randomized data sampling, especially when winning margins are in 1000s or even 100s of votes.

So this is a data science problem - does the pollster accurately describe the nature of the election (simple 2-way without much sentiment, wave, multi-cornered split decision etc), and then how does the pollster sample different demographics to get a voteshare estimate and then translate that fine grained into seat share ?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 16 May 2019 22:16

aylamrin wrote:
Suraj wrote:The India Today ‘exit poll data’ is, as they revealed, dummy data for the sake of demonstrating how their May 19-23 TV shows will be . A clever trick indeed . The nicest way to stop such clever tricks is to have a high profile lawsuit alleging attempt to sway voters before Sunday . That’ll teach them, and others, the price of such cleverness .


The price of this channel is 1.18 (including GST). Have to hit where it hurts the most. Keep a list of brands that place ads on this channel (Top 5/Top 10). Launch a boycott campaign - reason they place ads on a BIF media. Hence they would have to choose one of the two, BIF media or its market share.


It will be hard to track brands since they are too numerous and shifting.
Instead each channel should be given a BIF score and people should turn them off.
Advertisers will migrate if theres no traffic.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 22:25

ramana wrote:Suraj a vote in Bengal is not just a vote for NaMo as in other places but a vote for change from Jihadidi.
Hence her high decibel antics.
vimal if you note the video you think BJP or EC has not?

Yes I agree that the absolute shrillness of her behavior is a clear indicator of the risk she sees to her grip, but I'm asserting that her violent response makes actual voting behavior hard to fathom. At some point, people are going to fear for their lives and ask 'should I make the push now, or just weaken her and push more later (e.g. 2021) ?" This sentiment is hard to gauge.

It's clear that within the gag on their mouths, pollsters are stating that Bengal data is very different or even astounding compared to what they originally estimated. Hard to read further into that - it could mean the groundswell of porivorton vote is extremely strong, or that extent of rigging impacting the effort is very strong. Hard to say until 6pm this Sunday.

As for ECI, I am tempted to go check if they have MMS in charge.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 16 May 2019 22:33

Suraj wrote:
aylamrin wrote:The price of this channel is 1.18 (including GST). Have to hit where it hurts the most. Keep a list of brands that place ads on this channel (Top 5/Top 10). Launch a boycott campaign - reason they place ads on a BIF media. Hence they would have to choose one of the two, BIF media or its market share.

It is hard to get a boycott campaign together on short notice, as compared to a high profile lawsuit. India Today could just have emblazoned 'dummy data' across the numbers so no one tried to read into it, but by deliberately misleading people, they've set themselves up for legal trouble.


Campaigns and law-suits are not mutually exclusive, each can complement the visibility of the other. Law suits will drag longer than our lifetimes, and certainly longer than Aloo-Poori's lifetime. When ad rates plummet, then he can see and feel the comeuppance. Others will take the hint.

Today only there was a teetar trend #BoycottAmazon, as Takla has done it again. What I am saying is something more than a teetar trend that will raise awareness. Top brands, (especially FMCG) and their brand ambassadors should be the ones that should be held accountable.

Anyway, I think this is entirely another topic, but this is the election dhaaga, and we must stick to it. Any more news from WB?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby suryag » 16 May 2019 22:35

At the verge of tears after reading this

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/from-the-ground-in-punjab-the-demons-of-1984-are-back-to-haunt-the-congress

Was too small a kid, am sure the reality during those days would have been even worse than what is written in words. Pitroda screwed everything with three words

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 16 May 2019 22:38

aylamrin wrote:
Singha wrote:https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/16/india/india-water-crisis-frontlines-intl/index.html

something else to shiver about. $20tr economy in 2040 but less water?


We will have Bibi's help to desalinate water so that it is drinkable.


Where do you dump salts from desalination? It will destroy fields if dumped in earth. It will destroy marine life if dumped in ocean

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 22:39

Firstpost - never a pro-NDA source at the best of times - has this to say about UP:
Lok Sabha Elections 2019: In UP, force of Narendra Modi is breaching immovable caste fortress of gathbandhan
BJP’s rivals are making claims of forming an alternative government hoping that the gathbandhan (alliance) of Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, and the sheer arithmetic of their combined vote bases of Muslims, Yadavs, Dalits and Jats can brush aside the BJP in the state. Then there are also those who are giving the BJP no more than half the seats it secured in 2014, going down to as low as even one-fourth.

After extensively travelling within Uttar Pradesh and interacting with voters across the social strata, from varied caste and communities in suburban and rural parts of western, central and eastern Uttar Pradesh, this writer assessed that those who have been basing their predictions (in terms of numbers) on the perceived arithmetical strength of gathbandhan will be in for a big surprise on 23 May.

Muslims are voting tactically, almost as a community, to oust the BJP. They are voting for the SP-BSP-RLD combination except in Amethi and Rae Bareli, where the gathbandhan hasn’t fielded candidates against Congress’ first family, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. But there is a division in the Dalit vote, especially non-Jatav Dalits and there’s a split in Yadav vote also, particularly where the BSP (not SP candidate) has been fielded by the gathbandhan. Jats in western Uttar Pradesh are in any case divided between BJP and RLD.

The BJP, on the other hand, has upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs including those from extremely backward castes, a good number of non-Jatav Dalits (Mayawati belongs to the Jatav or Chamar community) and sections of Yadavs on their side. The Congress does not exist on the ground except for Rae Bareli and Amethi. Rahul’s Nyay or 'Ab Hoga Nyay’ is either not heard of and among those who have heard, it does not invoke more than passing ridicule. Priyanka Gandhi, hyped as Congress’ Brahmastra (mythical divine weapon of Lord Brahma) has failed to make an impact on the ground.

Voting preferences differed among family members who would traditionally vote as one. Now elders prefer the gathbandhan but women and the younger lot are rooting for Modi. There are also undivided, extended Hindu families where cousins stand at the opposite ends of the political spectrum. Unfortunately for Modi’s rivals, split in families’ voting preferences is going in favour of the BJP.

It won’t be a surprise if BJP comes down from its 2014 numbers in the state but the issue is if the saffron party will be able to halt that loss at 10, 15, 20, 25 seats or more. Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati, the bua-babua duo coming together to take Ajit Singh as its junior partner has no doubt made the battle tough for the BJP and a highly engaging one. But at the fag end of polling I can say that the BJP is poised to score good numbers from Uttar Pradesh. The initial hype by sections of columnists and pollsters is far less likely to translate into reality.

Nothing that I saw on the ground convinced me that the campaign of the gathbandhan or the Congress is getting any purchase. The projections of a big dent to the BJP numbers, based on the old template of looking at UP elections only from the prism of caste fortifications, are questionable. This template has proved useless twice already (2014 and 2017) but its proponents have still not shaken old habits. The BJP is defending 73 seats. So the question is only about how much it is losing. I am willing to say, not much. A figure in the high fifties is what I am seeing with the caveat that I won't be surprised if it's more. The irresistible force called Narendra Modi is breaching the immovable caste fortress of Uttar Pradesh, yet again.

It is important to note what has changed for Modi and BJP. In 2014, as a challenger, Modi generated hope and the popular votes that he got was a combination of negative votes against a discredited Manmohan Singh regime and positive votes for his own development model. This time around, on talking to people across the state, particularly men and women from the lower rungs of social hierarchy, one can sense that hope has now turned into trust for the prime minister who worked hard to deliver basic needs to common people on the ground – be it toilets, concrete houses, cooking gas or bank accounts. Their vote to him, irrespective of what the final number may be, is a positive vote and not guided by what some describe as the TINA (there is no alternative) factor.

Take Ghazipur for instance, where Union minister Manoj Sinha is pitted against BSP’s Afzal Ansari from gathbandhan. Here, the Yadav community has around 3.60 lakh voters, Muslims 1.60 lakh and Dalits 2.60 lakh strong. Going by simple arithmetic, this gives an edge to Ansari and the gathbandhan but a large number of Yadavs and Dalits are favouring Sinha or Modi because of the development the region has lately seen.

Modi draws a great deal of strength from the younger lot, particularly first time and second-time voters. On talking to them in rural areas, at nondescript chai and paan shops or at gates of colleges in suburban blocks, districts or in university campuses in the state capital, seven to eight out of 10 would utter the surname Modi. The issue of employment lingers heavily on their minds but they are willing to believe more in Modi’s ability than in Rahul’s promises or in Akhilesh and Mayawati’s ability to create the structures for job creation. The surge of nationalism and surgical and airstrike at terror camps are also helping enhance the trust in Modi.

What is making the real difference in favour of Modi is the sheer number of lavarthi or beneficiaries who have received pucca houses, electricity supply after living for decades in darkness, toilets that have given some dignity to women, gas cylinders, two instalments of Rs 2,000 each under Kisan Samman Nidhi to one or more adult family members and other benefits such as Mudra loans. What has made them even happier is the fact they got it all without making rounds to offices of babus and local netas, without giving hefty cuts to intermediaries. A vast number of such beneficiaries are willing to believe in Modi and breaking stereotypical perception about a given caste and his or her voting choice.

I have quoted data multiple times showing just how much rural basic public goods coverage has increased since 2014. While we were developing until then, at the same rate of development, coverage would have reached >95% only by year 2035 or so. Instead, people have it all today. The pollster's comment above suggests it's a major factor.

The hope->trust dynamic is also an extremely strong pro-incumbency indicator. PP called it the bharosa vote.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 22:49

aylamrin wrote:Anyway, I think this is entirely another topic, but this is the election dhaaga, and we must stick to it. Any more news from WB?

I think it's well on topic, but only if someone can find and post information that's actionable, in management speak. Cmon people - what's an ECI link to use to report violations ?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 16 May 2019 22:53

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 354612.cms

West Bengal: SPG raise concerns over Mamata's rally ambush near PM Modi's venue

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee ‘plans rally ambush.’ Mamata plans to hold a rally very close to venue of PM Modi’s rally. SPG raises serious security concern and writes to DGP Bengal.

Very, very concerning that SPG (who quietly and efficiently did their jobs even during a situation like the PM's Varanasi road-show) are publicly voicing concerns about security this time.

Remember Patna in 2014.

I really, really hope the PM's security team are on top of this.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 16 May 2019 23:05

the IPS officer transferred back to delhi under EC orders after amit shah rally is the same one caught up in sharada scam and whom jihadidi came out to defend. he went like a king and met the cbi team in shillong.

now he back in delhi in home ministry

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ankit Desai » 16 May 2019 23:08

Singha wrote:the IPS officer transferred back to delhi under EC orders after amit shah rally is the same one caught up in sharada scam and whom jihadidi came out to defend. he went like a king and met the cbi team in shillong.

now he back in delhi in home ministry


And he failed to report at MHA !

-Ankit

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ankit Desai » 16 May 2019 23:09

Ankit Desai wrote:https://twitter.com/aajtak/status/1128976614019207168

We understand your excitement about this clip! Sorry to disappoint you. We too are waiting anxiously for the data.This is visibly a promo with dummy data, played on #ElectionNewstrack
For the REAL thing,tune in to India Today & AajTak on May 19, 4pm onwards #AajTakAxisExitPoll


-Ankit

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 16 May 2019 23:09

Suraj wrote:
aylamrin wrote:Anyway, I think this is entirely another topic, but this is the election dhaaga, and we must stick to it. Any more news from WB?

I think it's well on topic, but only if someone can find and post information that's actionable, in management speak. Cmon people - what's an ECI link to use to report violations ?


I think R-nub has taken it up, so do not fret.
Teetar #LutyensExitPoll trending.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 16 May 2019 23:13

Suraj wrote:It was a three cornered fight, with the top 3 each winning between 55-80 seats (I think 80, 75 and 55), and INC winning a further 28 or something. That's about as splintered a verdict as you can get, in a 240 odd seat assembly. The instability of the whole thing was such that Nitish jumped ship within ~2 years.

INC was in a pre-poll alliance with the JD(U) and RJD. At least that is what I remember.

I've stated this before and I'll state it again - pollster results are a function of their methodology and the kind of election they're covering. Some pollsters (e.g. Nate Silver) do poorly at wave election forecasting. I don't know why Nate gets such praise - his model only worked in very simple conditions.
....

Agree with your analysis here.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Patni » 16 May 2019 23:19

Suraj wrote:
aylamrin wrote:Anyway, I think this is entirely another topic, but this is the election dhaaga, and we must stick to it. Any more news from WB?

I think it's well on topic, but only if someone can find and post information that's actionable, in management speak. Cmon people - what's an ECI link to use to report violations ?

https://eci-citizenservices.eci.nic.in/default.aspx

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 16 May 2019 23:25

I know this is going to be an unpopular opinion here and I might get piled on, but here goes.

I don't think Sadhvi Pragya is cut out to be a politician. Politics is a matter of perception and you do not always say out loud what you might believe in private (no matter if it is "right"), if it can give the opposition a stick to beat you with. Unfortunately, she has done that with the Godse comment. She did it with the Karkare comment too, but that is more forgivable because she had personally suffered because of him. Now the INC's paltu kuttas in the media have smelled blood. She will be relentlessly hounded by the media with controversial questions just so she can make an unforced error like this.

Only silver lining is that there is only 1 phase left and her own constituency has already voted, so the impact will probably be limited.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 16 May 2019 23:28

Singha wrote:sad to the see the 3 telugu leaders fawning and supplicating to the same congress leadership which split their state - something people in the state always complain about.

Long time ago Atri/Kaal described the different types of power enumerated in the Puranas
Ken Boulding also wrote a book on power.
The three Telugu leaders want to use their political power to protect their money power.
They know whats coming in the pipeline wrt to their money power.
They cannot survive another DeMo type strike on their wealth.
CBN in an unguarded moment let out he owns 1 lakh crores.
Who knows what the other two have.
So supplicating to Sonia who divided the Andhra Pradesh tells you the people of the divided state have been fooled again.
The people elect these transactional leaders again and again.

KCR is running a reverse Nizam state: His caste with MIM in support. During Nizam it was MIM types with his caste in tow.

TDP and YCP are doing the eternal inter-caste rivalry.
If you note JS by Pawan Kalyan is tertiary role.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 16 May 2019 23:29

Not to worry. RSS (Godse) killed Gandhi has been running over propaganda channels for decades. This is just a personal opinion.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 16 May 2019 23:31

nachiket have you walked in her shoes?
Ab Hua to hua.
BJP has distanced itself from her statement.

There were innumerable Congress secondary leaders (MSA, SAM, Doggy etc) making worse comments on NaMo and all RaGa has to say is they should apologize and he gets away.
But buck stops with Modi for his supporters!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2019 23:37

nachiket wrote:I know this is going to be an unpopular opinion here and I might get piled on, but here goes.

I don't think Sadhvi Pragya is cut out to be a politician. Politics is a matter of perception and you do not always say out loud what you might believe in private (no matter if it is "right"), if it can give the opposition a stick to beat you with. Unfortunately, she has done that with the Godse comment. She did it with the Karkare comment too, but that is more forgivable because she had personally suffered because of him. Now the INC's paltu kuttas in the media have smelled blood. She will be relentlessly hounded by the media with controversial questions just so she can make an unforced error like this.

Only silver lining is that there is only 1 phase left and her own constituency has already voted, so the impact will probably be limited.

I agree that she's a little too emotional and immature at this point to do real politics. She might win because of sympathy and because people throw up in their mouths at the thought of voting Diggy instead, but she isn't currently a good politician.

Separately from that, I'm rather torn about what she actually said. In most of the past, making Godse into someone who acted righteously would be quite a stupid thing to say openly because public sentiment wasn't ready for the discourse. However, looking at twitter as my sole opinion point, there's quite a large number of people also saying the same, opening up partition era stories about how MKG was effectively a moralist veto on any action by India's fledgling govt. There's an undercurrent of resentment against appeasement and pandering, that recognizes it existed since the moment of Independence and that MKG himself was into it.

It is similar to how RaGa-1 was made into bhrashtachar #1 in these elections. Until now, RaGa-1 and the Gandhi-Nehru clan in general was to be left untouched as members of the pantheon of martyrs. Not anymore - his tawdry actions have been widely circulated. Similarly, a discourse is building that MKG, despite his spectacular ability to dismantle the moral superiority of the British, was flawed and made dangerous mistakes whose price we still pay, and more importantly, could have made even more dangerous mistakes by the sheer forces of his moral veto upon the Government of India - and that what Godse did was attempt to stop that.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby darshan » 16 May 2019 23:39

Direct and not politically correct statements are also made to avoid NOTA votes. There are many in buffer zones who want clear and no nonsense messages. Get NOTA or fence sitters? All depends on their on the ground feedbacks and lesson learned from last year's elections.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 16 May 2019 23:44

ramana wrote:nachiket have you walked in her shoes?
Ab Hua to hua.
BJP has distanced itself from her statement.

There were innumerable Congress secondary leaders (MSA, SAM, Doggy etc) making worse comments on NaMo and all RaGa has to say is they should apologize and he gets away.
But buck stops with Modi for his supporters!

Ramana saar, no I cannot imagine what she has gone through and that is why I said we cannot begrudge the Karkare comment. He definitely deserved it. But this one was wholly unnecessary IMHO. Like I said, she may be factually correct in what she said, but that does not matter when you are dealing with an incredibly hostile media like the BJP does. RaGa has the luxury of a servile one on the other hand.

Die hard BJP/Modi supporters are not going to mind of course. It is the people on the fence who might be affected because Gandhi still has a lot of people who revere him.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 16 May 2019 23:46

In fact Sadvi Pragya's staements can lose fence sitters, she comes accross as someone too emotional for politics.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby khatvaanga » 16 May 2019 23:50

UlanBatori wrote:UBCN prediction for the first 5 minutes of Counting/Announcement:
BJP 5, NDA total 6, Congi 5, M.GaddhaBandhan total 6. UNDECIDED: 533
{Dhoti shiver Lungi shiver}



:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 16 May 2019 23:52

Manish_Sharma wrote:
aylamrin wrote:
We will have Bibi's help to desalinate water so that it is drinkable.


Where do you dump salts from desalination? It will destroy fields if dumped in earth. It will destroy marine life if dumped in ocean


Bibi land has been doing it since years. I am no chemistry professor, but NaCl should be the raw material for some chemicals. Also it could be used for softening hard water.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby LakshmanPST » 16 May 2019 23:53

There are 2 problems with this Gandhi-Godse issue...
-
1) Gandhi's image is still quite positive among general public... There are people who does question his story, but it is a minority...
2) Even among people who do not like Gandhi still do not agree or associate with someone killing a person...
-
It will actually be Counter-productive to BJP, not demonizing Gandhi but glorifying Godse...
-
Sadhvi Pragya (and a lot of BJP leaders for that matter) should learn strategic silence...
Saying something as an individual is different from saying something as a leader of the party...
They should understand the consequences the party will face before saying anything...

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby SridharMatlaparthi » 16 May 2019 23:56

ramana wrote:
Singha wrote:sad to the see the 3 telugu leaders fawning and supplicating to the same congress leadership which split their state - something people in the state always complain about.

Long time ago Atri/Kaal described the different types of power enumerated in the Puranas
Ken Boulding also wrote a book on power.
The three Telugu leaders want to use their political power to protect their money power.
They know whats coming in the pipeline wrt to their money power.
They cannot survive another DeMo type strike on their wealth.
CBN in an unguarded moment let out he owns 1 lakh crores.
Who knows what the other two have.
So supplicating to Sonia who divided the Andhra Pradesh tells you the people of the divided state have been fooled again.
The people elect these transactional leaders again and again.

KCR is running a reverse Nizam state: His caste with MIM in support. During Nizam it was MIM types with his caste in tow.

TDP and YCP are doing the eternal inter-caste rivalry.
If you note JS by Pawan Kalyan is tertiary role.


Ramana ji, the people of the telugu states do not have much choices when it comes to politics.
Not that the people do not want change. They have tried to try whatever options were presented to them.
Chiranjeevi with his Praja Rajyam party, BJP when it gave soothing statements at the time of division - fell short when it came to implement them, and now Jana Sena.
I can say with first hand experience - they are excellent listeners, will listen to everyone, but will vote only for those who they perceive as serious contenders.

They have been short changed and do not see an alternative, so sticking to the existing options.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 16 May 2019 23:57

LakshmanPST wrote:There are 2 problems with this Gandhi-Godse issue...
-
1) Gandhi's image is still quite positive among general public... There are people who does question his story, but it is a minority...
2) Even among people who do not like Gandhi still do not agree or associate with someone killing a person...
-
It will actually be Counter-productive to BJP, not demonizing Gandhi but glorifying Godse...
-
Sadhvi Pragya (and a lot of BJP leaders for that matter) should learn strategic silence...
Saying something as an individual is different from saying something as a leader of the party...
They should understand the consequences the party will face before saying anything...

Agree 100%. You articulated it much better than I did.

Learning strategic silence is the most important skill people need to learn in politics. More relevant for BJP which needs to fight the media along with the opposition.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 16 May 2019 23:59

nachiket wrote:I know this is going to be an unpopular opinion here and I might get piled on, but here goes.

I don't think Sadhvi Pragya is cut out to be a politician. Politics is a matter of perception and you do not always say out loud what you might believe in private (no matter if it is "right"), if it can give the opposition a stick to beat you with. Unfortunately, she has done that with the Godse comment. She did it with the Karkare comment too, but that is more forgivable because she had personally suffered because of him. Now the INC's paltu kuttas in the media have smelled blood. She will be relentlessly hounded by the media with controversial questions just so she can make an unforced error like this.

Only silver lining is that there is only 1 phase left and her own constituency has already voted, so the impact will probably be limited.


Correct, but please cut her some slack. She was never a politician, but could be groomed. Please remember, we also have a 50 years adoloscent playing video games, and a Sultana's candidate who meets her people wearing latex gloves. There are people who have different yardsticks, but that is not something to emulate here on the forum. Whatever she says, we'll haul our a$$es to shield her.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby khatvaanga » 17 May 2019 00:02

Suraj wrote: He has no record at a false positive in a wave election, i.e. he has never asserted a wave election when there wasn't one. However he has one instance of a false negative, where in CG 2018 he didn't notice the wave against the incumbent, but then no one did, including the INC.


which is why i am more and more inclined to believe that this is a wave election. either BJP will get like UP 2017 or get wiped out like CG 2018. No inbetweens. So far, all the data, whisper exit polls, news bytes all point towards UP 2017 type verdict.


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