2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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pankajs
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:53

UlanBatori wrote:
hanumadu wrote:India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP
Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority.
HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP.
This India-Today poll is suspect.

Good point, but Muslim Assamese are probably not against expelling more recent BD arrivals and see NDA as best bet for development. Being majority they have no fear of yindootva agenda in their locality.

Possible for BJP to win on Muslim majority seats by splitting the Muslim votes and consolidating the Hindu votes if the Muslims are around 50-60%. This has happened in UP in 2014.

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:53

There u go: Time for Lungi-Shiver
BJP 5 seats shy of magic number according to ABP-Nielsen Survey
The ABP-Nielsen Survey has predicted no clear majority for any alliance.
ABP-Nielsen exit pollAlliance Seats
NDA 267
UPA 127
Others 148


Gora hath fa*ted. Please note for future reference.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 19 May 2019 20:54

putnanja wrote:Where is Dilbu? I hope he will be on the forum on 23rd with his anti-jinx :D

Reporting for duty sir.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Nsmith » 19 May 2019 20:54

BJP has bought all media houses.

NaMo will loose onlee :(( :(( :((

* Dilbu ji is finally back on duty!

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:56

India Todin says they surveyed 800,000 ppl. A bit more than TIMES' 40,000, hain?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 19 May 2019 20:56

Karnataka must be the first state govt to fall after 23rd. Can't wait for the fireworks.
Last edited by Dilbu on 19 May 2019 20:57, edited 1 time in total.

Shanmukh
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shanmukh » 19 May 2019 20:57

hanumadu wrote:India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP
Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority.
HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP.
This India-Today poll is suspect.


Only Dhubri is ~65-70% Muslim. Other two [Barpeta and Karimganj] are just marginally Muslim [50-55% Muslim]. If vote is getting split between the AIUDF and the Congress [AIUDF is mostly the Bengali Muslim party], it may happen. Still, a bit hard to believe that BJP can win Karimganj.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 19 May 2019 20:57

KL Dubey wrote:*Ornob is grinning from ear to ear all day. He is looking forward to another 5 years of TRP. The fellows on NDTV seem to have long faces. Srinivasan Jain has the JBF look. Saggy and Needy still banking on the Australian polls. :mrgreen:

I don’t think these guys understand the Aus polls . It seems they are banking on just ‘polls could be wrong’ . The more detailed view is that polls gave the center left undue weight (same as in US) and failed to pick the undercurrent of conservative sentiment , same as in US and various European countries .

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:57

pankajs wrote:Indian Today (For BJP)

UP >> Vote share BJP [48 (+4)], MBG (39 (-4)], CON [8(0)], OTH [5(0)]

UP >> 62-68 [MBG (10-16)]

Outstanding! Lungi-shiver ... me shiver.
Last edited by pankajs on 19 May 2019 20:58, edited 1 time in total.

putnanja
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby putnanja » 19 May 2019 20:57

Dilbu wrote:Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((


Thank God Dilbu is here! Request your presence here till counting is completed on 23rd :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 19 May 2019 20:58

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby prashanth » 19 May 2019 20:58

Dilbu wrote:We need a liberal dose of anti-jinx from now on. BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((


Welcome back Sir!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Nsmith » 19 May 2019 20:58

India today Axis poll - Uttar Pradesh:

Bjp: 60-68, MGB: 10-16, Congress: 0-2

Zor se bolo. We will loose onlee :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 21:05

deleted
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 May 2019 21:07, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 21:05

Turdesai made a point a while back that with the kind of wins in Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal and Orissa means that BJP/Modi have really got a NEW constituency in the poorest of the poor.

For once I agree with him.

AND I might add, two of the states don't speak hindi in their villages! This is a major breakthrough.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 19 May 2019 21:06

Dilbu the mahdi is back.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 19 May 2019 21:09

UlanBatori wrote:
hanumadu wrote:India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP
Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority.
HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP.
This India-Today poll is suspect.

Good point, but Muslim Assamese are probably not against expelling more recent BD arrivals and see NDA as best bet for development. Being majority they have no fear of yindootva agenda in their locality.


Their pollster (Pradip Gupta I think) said that Congress fielded strong muslim candidates in those 3 seats at the last moment.
India Today claims they polled every constituency with more than 7 lakh voters.


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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby manjgu » 19 May 2019 21:13

the exit polls serve no purpose except to fill hours for tv channels..the pitara will open on 23rd and ek baar phir modi sarkaar !! UP and Bengal are big variables... KCr and YSR are fence sitters... just waiting to see which way the wind blows...Chandra Papa naidu will look like a fool on 23rd IMHO..

KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 19 May 2019 21:16

Just FYI...the exit poll results are already being compiled on Wikipedia for ready reference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_polls_for_the_2019_Indian_general_election

IndiaTV-CNX has taken too long with their program, but they are just done. Prediction is NDA 300 and UPA 120.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 19 May 2019 21:18

manjgu wrote:the exit polls serve no purpose except to fill hours for tv channels..the pitara will open on 23rd and ek baar phir modi sarkaar !! UP and Bengal are big variables... KCr and YSR are fence sitters... just waiting to see which way the wind blows...Chandra Papa naidu will look like a fool on 23rd IMHO..


+ 1

Supratik
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 19 May 2019 21:22

Only TN has been the outlier.

KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 19 May 2019 21:28

manjgu wrote:the exit polls serve no purpose except to fill hours for tv channels..the pitara will open on 23rd and ek baar phir modi sarkaar !! UP and Bengal are big variables... KCr and YSR are fence sitters... just waiting to see which way the wind blows...Chandra Papa naidu will look like a fool on 23rd IMHO..


My reading is that "Chandranna", unlike Pappu, is not a blithering idiot. It is his innate crookedness and selfishness that leads him to backstab.

On one hand, he could have stayed in the NDA for 2019 and comfortably become CM again. But NaMo+Jaitley would not let him siphon away "AP capital construction" money, and Shah would be slowly eating away at his vote share and organization.

On the other hand, he could have made a break for it...while it carried the risk of "losing everything", in this way he could deal with the INC to bolster his votes, plus he would have a much better bargain with a "milawati sarkar" that needs his support.

He decided to go for broke......and by the looks of it, broke he may well be. :D

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 21:33

Chintamani 5 dots

Thus the final result for BJP at 95% confidence level are as delineated in our final chart, i.e., 285 for BJP, and 347 for NDA. The range is kept at +/- 3%, so that we project BJP at 285 +/- 16 (269-301), and NDA at 347 +/- 17, i.e., 330-364. Similarly, Congress would be at 53 +/- 2 (51-55), and UPA at 89 +/- 3 (86-92).


NOW they are getting closer to the UBCN projection.

Satya_anveshi
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Satya_anveshi » 19 May 2019 21:36

Today's Chanakya

Verified account

@TodaysChanakya
5m5 minutes ago
More
All India Lok Sabha Tally 2019
BJP 300 ± 14 Seats
NDA 350 ± 14 Seats

Cong 55 ± 9 Seats
UPA 95 ± 9 Seats
Others 97 ± 11 Seats
#News24TodaysChanakya

Suraj
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 19 May 2019 21:41

So both Axis and Today’s Chanakya give NDA 350+ . And multiple others over 300 . Time for a poll of exit polls now that everyone’s numbers are out .

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 19 May 2019 21:46

Dilbu wrote:
putnanja wrote:Where is Dilbu? I hope he will be on the forum on 23rd with his anti-jinx :D

Reporting for duty sir.


phew . resistance command to all surviving x-wing squadrons- reformate on dilbu and attack the energy vent of the death star.

har har mahadev. let the tandav begin.

our missing general is back to lead the resistance units

Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 19 May 2019 21:47

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 19 May 2019 21:49

Chaddi Subramanya needs Burnol on her Musharraf. :rotfl:
https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/stat ... 4291639296
If these trends hold from the exit polls,my hunch Modi would come back big despite what all the conventional wisdom says will have been proved right. I expected him to do at least as well as 2014 but this is even beyond that. Statistically implausible but mathematically possible.

11 replies 3 retweets 23 likes


Notice how she keeps sprinkling her tweets with 'Statistically' and 'Mathematically'. Arybhatta's direct descendant, alumus of the Choudhary Charan Singh University of Kaneda. :lol:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shivaji » 19 May 2019 21:49

Exit poll from Savyasachi:

https://twitter.com/savvyasaachi/status ... 7292288000

NDA- 318-348
(BJP-277-307)

UPA- 90-115
(CONGRESS-51-68)

OTH- 81-101

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rhytha » 19 May 2019 21:51

Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((


Wow looks like force is back. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby williams » 19 May 2019 21:55

If NDA gets 2/3 majority say bye bye to Article 370 and a possible doubling of J&K GDP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby uskumar » 19 May 2019 21:56

UlanBatori wrote:The "A" is whatever you want it to be. BTW, in TN, post MGR& JL, I guess there is no Divine Figure. Match between unknown bureaucrats (Palaniappan?) and experienced goons (Stalin?Pol Pot?) and "INC" which means "Evangelists".

Personally I feel Hindus will become minority in TN by 2024 when Congress and dmk combine wins whenever next state election happens. There is huge number of conversions in deep south of TN and even in towns around chennai. Even Small temple towns like siruvapuri has huge churches which asks it's electorate to vote for DMK. This election is last hope to stem that tide.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Atmavik » 19 May 2019 22:01

williams wrote:If NDA gets 2/3 majority say bye bye to Article 370 and a possible doubling of J&K GDP.


#Aab ki baar 300 par. to celebrate an order of 300 Arjun Mk2 should be placed.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby dnivas » 19 May 2019 22:04

Dilbu wrote:Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((


Back in time!!!!!!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby putnanja » 19 May 2019 22:06

Looks like mass rigging in WB. Wonder how this would affect the exit poll

Facebook post on forceful voting by TMC cadres by turning away real voters

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 May 2019 22:07

Atmavik wrote:
williams wrote:If NDA gets 2/3 majority say bye bye to Article 370 and a possible doubling of J&K GDP.


#Aab ki baar 300 par. to celebrate an order of 300 Arjun Mk2 should be placed.


And 300 more LCA Tejas, 300 LCH, 300 Dhruv and 300 Dhanush.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby RKumar » 19 May 2019 22:07

I wish "Arnab Goswami" gets mature, he should stop shouting his lungs out and let others respond. I can understand he got limited time but it will make discussion more entertaining.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 19 May 2019 22:09

Suraj wrote:The bottom line is that they had a close election and that polls recently have repeatedly underestimated a conservative sentiment (US, Australia, various European countries) because the center-left media voice is louder than center right .


Active audience of CNN can fit into Jackson county, Missouri (700k) and this guys think they can influence a whole nation. A live demonstration of the phrase "living in a cocoon". Has anybody figured why they lost 40% of their viewership since 2016?

The loss of voice is not a political wing which can be casted into "left" or "right". It is the "common" aspirational voice that was not finding a way in the din of very few elitists.

It is this voice which is expressed as a "conservative sentiment" across the globe.

---

I think all the exit polls are showing and nobody is daring to call out in India is that NDA may breach 2/3rd majority

The elitist pseudo-liberal crowd will be doing a mass rona-dhona and it is good. The more they do it, the more they will push themselves into irrelevancy.

On twitter there are at least two journos from the pseudo-liberal elitist gang complaining about their family kicking them out of their WA group. This pseudo-liberal elitists were also called out as "Khan Market" by NaMo, or is sometimes known as the "SoBo" in the financial capital. In SoKo their lifestyle is called "Gangnam Style" mocked in a same named song. Imagine a cock or a hen from the Gangnam calls out political shots for entire SoKo just because the person is a lucky egg or a sperm.

Imagine #Pappu or #Pappini or Stalin or Akkalless being the head of a nuclear weaponized nation and representing 1/6th of humanity.

Gone are the days where your only asset was a thatched roof and a goat tied to a pole. That is still the reality of millions in India. But so is the fact that this millions want to get out of the pernicious poverty that plagues their entire life where a small accident will push them and several of their next generation back into poverty. Where a chota-mota blast as called by pseudo-liberal elite and a CONgoons slave like Sreenivas Jain of rNDTV will render them invalid and a pathetic life of physical and emotional slavery.

In that sense when lazy psephologists say "Balakote help NaMo win", then they are not seeing the full impact of Pulwama. Entire population was shocked to see life snuffed out so nastily by a hinduphobic islamocyst. In 2014 when #Pappini famously said "Smriti Who?" had to go about telling that "Giving shoes to poor people of Amethi" was an insult. How insulting. Entirely missing the point that as an arrogant dynast #Pappini has other'ed the subaltern Indians. It just so happens that largely they are Hindus and hence the subaltern Hindus are othered by the CONgoons.

Lot will be analyzed post 2019, but it appears that #AyegaTohModiHi

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 19 May 2019 22:11

Dilbu wrote:Reporting for duty sir.


^What took you so long?

*Others have put in their anti-jinxes. However if their anti-jinx'es do not work, I am recommending they they all be banned for 5 days.


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