Suraj wrote:So both Axis and Today’s Chanakya give NDA 350+ . And multiple others over 300 . Time for a poll of exit polls now that everyone’s numbers are out .
From Dubey'jis wiki link.
Some quick thumb calc - Average across all for NDA is 303. Median is 305. Max is 352 and Min is 242. Taking out the outliers (352 and 242), the average and the median are the same (305).
Similarly in 2014:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Indian_general_election#Exit_polls
The average was 283. Max was 340 and Min was 249. Taking out these outliers, the average was 278 and the median was 276 (practically the same).
Actual result was 336 (about 60 higher than the mean/median prediction).
Scenario 1: The exit polls have gotten much better/more intelligent than 2014. So the actual result would be close to the median: 300-310.
Scenario 2: The accuracy of the polls remains similar, and the NaMo wave manages to tilt several of the tossup seats so that the upper outlier is closer to the actual result. In this case, it would be 345-355.
Scenario 3: All exit polls have fawked up this time and gone in the wrong direction. BJP down to 180 seats. NDA at 220. Urmila Matondkar becomes PM of milawati sarkar.
I think it will be Scenario 3