2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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Singha
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 09:35

so people tomorrow should plan to tune in around 12 PM and maintain CAP patrols until 9 PM .....

not much point joining the show early as its only 5 VVPATs in the fray from 8:30AM onward in each constituency.

its going to be a long day in the killing er counting fields.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 22 May 2019 09:37

Shouldn't verdict be out by 4 PM?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 09:38

not this time. please read my post a few posts above. due to 5 VVPATS, the real counting will start around 12 noon not 8:30AM.

any constituency where vvpat differs evm in those 5 booths i dont know what will happen, maybe a full vvpat count in (a) that booth only (b) all booths

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Theeran » 22 May 2019 09:52

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/t ... epage=true

Haha thanks to brf I can spot these divisive articles from a good distance.
All the favorite words are there - patriarchy, majority, minority, upper caste, supremacist, chauvinist, hate, fear. A new one for me is lynching of dalits. It feels like they have an algorithm that takes these words and puts conjunctions in between.
The question is what is goal here?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sivab » 22 May 2019 10:02

Singha wrote:not this time. please read my post a few posts above. due to 5 VVPATS, the real counting will start around 12 noon not 8:30AM.

any constituency where vvpat differs evm in those 5 booths i dont know what will happen, maybe a full vvpat count in (a) that booth only (b) all booths


https://www.eci.gov.in/files/file/10227 ... regarding/

Issue Date Saturday 18 May 2019

I am directed to refer to the Commission’s letters No. 470/2003/JS.II dated 25th November, 2003 and 470/2009/EPS dated 21st January, 2009 regarding Counting of Votes. It was, inter-alia, directed that the penultimate round of EVM counting is not be taken up until the counting of all Postal Ballot Papers is completed. There is also an instruction that if victory margin is less than the number of postal ballot papers, re-verification of all postal ballot papers should be carried out by the Returning Officer.

2. With the introduction of ETPBS and casting of postal ballot by election duty staff at the facilitation centre, the number of postal ballot papers for counting has gone up considerably. Further, with the requirement of mandatory QR code reading for the ETPBS, the postal ballot counting will now require more time. Moreover, there is a mandatory VVPAT slips count of five Polling Stations per Assembly Segment in addition to the cases of VVPAT count that may be required on account of other reasons, such as CU not being cleared after mock poll, the CU not displaying the results at the time of counting, etc.

3. In view of the above, the Commission has reviewed the above referred instructions and the modified instructions are as follows: -

(i) The instruction that the penultimate round of EVM counting should be taken up only after completion of Postal Ballot counting is withdrawn. Accordingly, the EVM counting can go on irrespective of the stage of Postal Ballot counting. Once the EVM counting is completed, the VVPAT slips counting can start as per the prescribed procedure for counting VVPAT slips.

(ii) The Commission’s instruction for mandatory re-counting of all postal ballot papers on the ground that the margin of victory is less than the number of postal ballot has been revised to the effect that where the margin of victory is less than the number of Postal Ballot papers rejected as invalid at the time of counting, all the rejected Postal Ballot papers shall be mandatorily re-verified by the Returning Officer before declaration of result. Whenever, such re-verification is done, the entire proceedings should be video-graphed as per the instructions in paragraph 7 of the Commission’s letter No. 470/2009/EPS dated 21-01-2009, referred to above
Last edited by ramana on 22 May 2019 20:42, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added underline ramana

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 10:30

ibnlive

Sources say Sharad Pawar has reached out to YSR Congress leader Jagan Mohan Reddy, Telangana Rashtra Samiti leader K Chandrasekhara Rao - the Chief Minister of Telangana - and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.

Mr Pawar has reportedly made phone calls to Mr Rao, aka KCR, and Naveen Patnaik for support in case the opposition gets the sliver of a chance to form the government.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader is believed to have been assured support by Naveen Patnaik and Mr Rao a.k.a KCR if the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has the numbers to form a stable government with their support.

Mr Pawar has been in touch with Chandrababu Naidu, the other leader who has been city-hopping over the past few days for discussions with leaders like Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Uttar Pradesh coalition partners Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav and Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. Yesterday, Mr Naidu also met Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy and his father Deve Gowda of the Janata Dal Secular, which has an alliance with the Congress.

Mr Naidu's chief rival Jagan Reddy is yet to speak to Mr Pawar. Sources say the NCP chief "could not reach" Jagan Reddy as he is travellin

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 10:36

A_Gupta wrote:This stuff about “elite seeking superpower status” reminded me, this link posted by rgosain I think:
https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... i-5739264/

Quote:
And yes, and somewhat surprisingly for me, the rural voter often mentioned that Modi had enhanced India’s standing in the world. I say surprising because I belong to DLLK, and we elite find it difficult to understand why a rural voter should be worried about India’s standing in the world.
That is a cardinal mistake, and vividly illustrates why DLLK got this election so wrong (again, assuming exit polls are right — I believe they will be). This is a changed, educated, aspiring, middle-class India. Those who are not yet truly middle-class (about 50 per cent of the population) want to get there, and want to know the means to get there.

Long back ... when Modi was on his "hugplomacy" spree some folks has expressed concern that he was perhaps overdoing it ... and lets admit .. he did seem a tad too eager with leader who normally aren't accustomed to such gestures [Agent Orange comes to mind] .. and the jokes and meme mocking him for it on teetar.

I remember writing then that this was not for the city bred folks, who found it a bit too dramatic/over the top. This was primarily aimed at the rural masses who will see this as an acceptance of *their* leader by the world leaders as *equals* and see it as proof of India's enhanced "standing in the world". Even then my gut level feel was that it was all aimed at the rural masses wonlee. We may not see it on English channels after the news is over but I would expect such clips to be played over and over on DD news beyond its immediate occurrence and over a period of time to drive home that message.

This is not to diss Modi's foreign policy achievements but to emphasze his gut level understanding that optics matters as much as substance and that he is a 24x7 politician who always has a target audience in mind.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 10:56

Karthik S wrote:Shouldn't verdict be out by 4 PM?

Trend by 1 pm barring upset swings
Almost the final results by 4 pm except for very close race.

Offical declaration and final tally will take time now with this 5x VVPAT thing.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 10:57

Atmavik wrote:
ramana wrote:I also refuted Nitin Pai saying EC must conduct elections in one day.

Shiv, Data is best argument.
It took 120 days to conduct elections in 1952 with 17.3 crore voters.
In 2019 it took 39 days to conduct elections with 89.8 crore voters.
IOW 3x less time for 5x voters.
Any suggestion to conduct in one day is unrealistic.
https://t.co/w1jBEegoT5


one day election will be a dream come true for the likes of Mamota and CPM as central forces will be spread and they can run riot. and this time IPL was not shifted out of india like every election cycle.



understand clearly the intent of shifting the IPL out of India.

The IPL got shifted out of India during some of the earlier election cycles because someone was being paid very handsomely to so.

any offshore venue, as well as the organizers of the IPL at that venue, will make a huge killing and obviously, someone in India would be the beneficiary of impressively generous kickbacks.

given the way that the IPL is organized as well as run, it would not be too difficult to zero in on the names.

It only required the right baboo(n)s and the right grey eminences to make the favorable and inspiringly vague file notings referencing certain contrived law and order reports that were specially commissioned from pliant agencies to portray a grim security situation for the IPL to ensure that it got shifted out of India.

obviously, such games are not being played by this govt.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dumal » 22 May 2019 11:03

Theeran wrote:https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/time-to-rebuild-indias-secularism/article27199545.ece?homepage=true

Haha thanks to brf I can spot these divisive articles from a good distance.
All the favorite words are there - patriarchy, majority, minority, upper caste, supremacist, chauvinist, hate, fear. A new one for me is lynching of dalits. It feels like they have an algorithm that takes these words and puts conjunctions in between.
The question is what is goal here?


The reference to algorithm took me back to the 90's and to the Soc.culture.indian denizens and the humour from those days. For a well-deserved break from the dhoti-shivering, and especially for people who know tamil, please enjoy "An algorithmic approach to modern tamil verse" http://www.image-in-asian.com/ramesh_m/ramesh4.html. It does have english translations but may not always carry the full import.
Last edited by Dumal on 22 May 2019 11:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 22 May 2019 11:12

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 11:18

nachiket wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
Can you share Youtube link ? I couldn't find the video with obvious search terms.

Here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX8gFECR8uo



don't forget the look burka butt's face after shama mohammed says "pliant media"


Image

Sandrokottos
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sandrokottos » 22 May 2019 11:35

^Caption should be: After all that I have done for you. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 22 May 2019 11:36

^ Is there some solid five star app with which one can download YOUTUBE VIDEOS on ANDROID? I really want to download some of the videos like this...

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby mmasand » 22 May 2019 11:41

Manish_Sharma wrote:^ Is there some solid five star app with which one can download YOUTUBE VIDEOS on ANDROID? I really want to download some of the videos like this...


Durecorder, does a decent job of recording your screen per se, not a YouTube clip exclusively.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 11:44

^^
4K Video Downloader
https://www.4kdownload.com/download

I use the portable version. Pretty good for individual videos. Have used it to download 100's of YT videos. Playlist download is premium but one can add 10's or 100's of urls and it will download all in sequence. You can set the quality and format of the download. I have used it to download audio of YT mantra videos too.
Last edited by pankajs on 22 May 2019 11:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chandrasekaran » 22 May 2019 11:45

If you are using Telegram (mobile or web version, for chatting), just use the covertto.io bot. Chat with the bot typing "mp3/mp4 <YouTube_URL>. The conversion happens bythe bot in the cloud andonce done, you will get a chat message with the download link

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 11:50

X posted from the other forum Thanks to tajmahal321 who posted this there


EC process for EVM

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1130 ... 95808.html

1 .Before EVM is put in to actual use at the polling station,the Presiding Officer Prepares the EVM for voting-at the Polling Stations - in the presence of the candidates or their election agents or their polling agents

2. The Presiding Officer starts the preparations about an hour before the time fixed for commencement of the poll and polling agents are to be present at the polling station at that time

The preparations, which are required to be made- I will explain in this thread -

3. Before commencing the poll, Presiding officer have to satisfy not only himself but also all polling agents, who are present at the polling station, that the EVM and VVPAT are in perfect working condition & with Zero votes entered

4. For such satisfaction, Presiding Officer should first show -to all people present - that all counts have been set to ZERO by pressing the ‘Clear’ button on Control Unit

After That ‘ Mock Poll ‘ is conducted in front of representatives of all parties

5. The mock poll is conducted by-polling agents voting at random for each of candidates.A total of at least 50votes
At the end of Mock Poll -‘Close ‘ Button is pressed & Result is checked by all Polling Agents present -declaration is signed by them & recorded in PO diary

6.All slips from VVPAT are removed..which were generated during Mock Poll & Then Presiding Officer starts the process of Sealing the Control Unit as per procedure laid by @ECISVEEP

I repeat- it’s impossible to Tamper the EVMs or swap them in any Manner due to this process

7. All mock paper slips from VVPAT are removed by the Presiding Officer and the empty drop box verified by the Polling Agents.
The mock poll VVPAT paper slips, are stamped on their back side with rubber stamp having inscription “MOCK POLL SLIP”

8. After that - these mock poll VVPAT paper slips are kept in an envelope made of thick black paper and sealed with the seal of the Presiding Officer.
The envelope is signed by Presiding Officer & all poling Agents


9. The number and name of the polling station, number and name of Assembly Constituency, date of poll and the words “VVPAT paper slips of Mock Poll” is written on the envelope.


10.This envelope is kept in a plastic box for mock poll & sealed with a pink paper seal placed all around in such a manner that opening of box will require breaking of seal

The PO and Polling Agents Of all parties - must put their signatures on the pink paper seal too.


11. In case of EVM malfunctioning later due to technical reasons- Whole Mock Poll precess is repeated before using the replacement EVM by Presiding Officer in front of Representatives of all political parties present in booth

12. After mock Poll is over and all Polling Agents are satisfied & signed the certificate-
Actual preparation of Control Unit starts

13 I think.. I am becoming too technical !!
Anyway - First a Green paper seal is placed ( it has a number ) , it’s signed by Presiding Officer & all Polling Agents presents & Sr. number Of Green Seal is noted by the Polling Agents !!


14. PO has to keep account of Green seals - used , damaged /Returned .. in the form specifically prescribed for the purpose vide Item 10 of Part I of Form 17C appended to the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961.

Polling agents also have this record

15.After sealing with Green paper seal -A - SPECIAL ADDRESS TAG - is attached which has signatures of Presiding Officer & again of all Polling Agents .

The serial number of this Address tag is also given to Polling Agents Of the Parties


To be Continued..... after a break

16. After Special Address tag is put - Outer covers of Control Unit having result section is sealed ( Using thread ) by Presiding Officer Using Election Commission Seal Which is provided to them & address tags with machine identity & booth numbers are attached

17. Then an additional outer paper seal with a serial number is used for sealing “Result Section” of Control Unit completely with an Outer Paper Strip Seal, so that this portion of Control Unit cannot be tampered in any Manner. This seal is also signed by Polling Agents & PO

18.AllControl Unit are secured and sealed from outside completely with the ‘strip paper seal ‘ so that this section cannot be opened without damaging the strip seal !!

This seal is too signed by all Polling Agents & Presiding Officer


19. Special training is conducted by @ECISVEEP for Polling Staff & Presiding Officers

I repeat - it’s absolutely impossible to change or swap or Tamper the EVMs at any stage of Poll Process

20. At the end of Poll - An “account of votes “recorded in the voting machine is prepared and a certified copy of Form 17 is given to each polling agent

21. All EVM units are sealed & then resealed in outer boxes in front of polling agents & they are allowed to put signatures on all tags !

At the time of counting- The ‘Form 17 ‘ & all tag/Paper seal numbers are verified by the Agents Of Candidates -When EVMs are opened#END


and finally,

Someone who knows how the system works says 'Each and every machine has a unique number. The list of machines with their numbers is in the hands of every candidate'. So if there are really any doubts, let the candidate complain.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 12:01

people are also using some threadroll app in teetar to tag n bag BIF evidence & burnol threads for later. dont know if its persistent in cloud somewhere.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 12:04

It is .. but one must have the link to that threadroll. Do collect and post AFTER the results are in and IF it confirms the exit polls

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 12:12

aye aye captain sir

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 12:17

The headline is clearly mischievous but to be expected from "The Hindu" and the authors. Still one can glean some useful data even from such notes.

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok- ... 199617.ece
North, South clearly divided over giving another chance to Modi
An important indicator of the popularity of an incumbent government is the intensity of the voters’ desire to give it a second chance. Across the Hindi heartland and States of the West, the desire to give the Modi-led BJP government a second chance is extremely high.
While there is a marginal pro-incumbency sentiment in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, it is in the low single digits. On the other hand, in States like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the anti-incumbency sentiment is extremely high (36% in Kerala and 47% in Tamil Nadu).
Directly contradicts the headline!
The North-South divide in terms of giving the incumbent government a second chance is clearly visible. At the same time, among the States of the South, an internal division is beginning to shape: Andhra, Telangana and Karnataka appear to have perceptibly shifted toward the BJP while Kerala and Tamil Nadu continue to be most steadfastly away from BJP.
Positive data ... Next area for the growth of BJP is Andhra and Telangana.
This clearly indicates that wherever the BJP is in direct competition with the Congress it has clearly wrested the initiative and the BJP-led Central government has a much higher satisfaction rating. It also means that once the BJP has entered the electoral threshold in a State, it is likely to consolidate its advantage and gradually flush out the State-based parties there.
...
Similarly its vote share rises sharply in States where it is in direct competition with a State-based party.
Positive data for future action.
Where the competition is between the BJP and a State-based party, the gap between the preference for Mr. Modi and Mr. Gandhi, remains at 26% percentage points (18% for Mr. Gandhi and 44% for Mr. Modi). Even where the competition is between two State- based parties, Mr. Modi is ahead of Mr. Gandhi by at least 15% points.
Worst case but Modi still beats Pappu.
Over and above these variations, an interesting fact that emerges from the post-poll survey is that both the BJP and the Congress have been by and large successful in retaining their votes from 2014. This nugget from the survey could be a valuable indicator of the possible outcome tomorrow.
Validates the Exit polls .. though Exit polls have a better hit rate than opinion polls 8) . Increase in BJP vote share should increase their tally. Throw in some diffusion (Expansion into new areas) and some counter consolidation (UP) into the mix means that BJP should at least touch it 2014 tally.
The biggest movement away from the State-based parties is to the BJP. While survey data from West Bengal is incomplete at the time of writing this, there is a strong chance that State-based parties, including parties like BJD and Trinamool Congress would be the immediate casualty of the consolidation of BJP.
Positive data for the future.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 May 2019 12:25

So the 7 decade long left-INC project to have Indians become a mix of deracinated wogs acting like brown sahibs, and be caught up in their nice little caste buckets is being sabotaged by the rise of a counter. A nationalist force which is stressing on folks to hold a strong center together, away from sub-regionalist fiefdoms.

Truly a strategic nightmare for the west, and PRC - all would have been happy that india remained a backward fiefdom and was gradually being subverted from within.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 22 May 2019 12:27

Atmavik wrote:
ramana wrote:I also refuted Nitin Pai saying EC must conduct elections in one day.

Shiv, Data is best argument.
It took 120 days to conduct elections in 1952 with 17.3 crore voters.
In 2019 it took 39 days to conduct elections with 89.8 crore voters.
IOW 3x less time for 5x voters.
Any suggestion to conduct in one day is unrealistic.
https://t.co/w1jBEegoT5


one day election will be a dream come true for the likes of Mamota and CPM as central forces will be spread and they can run riot. and this time IPL was not shifted out of india like every election cycle.


Folks, could you share your thoughts on linking Aadhaar and EPIC, so that people with access to smartphones+data can vote on their phones. Shorter queues, faster turnaround, probably less "enforced casting of votes"?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 May 2019 12:31


Karan M
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 May 2019 12:32

I really wonder whether the deliberate delay introduced in results counting is related to the above.

Rajasthan is the next target per above report.

One way or the other, we have to now spend more on defence and ramp up capabilities ASAP

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 22 May 2019 12:34

Theeran wrote:https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/time-to-rebuild-indias-secularism/article27199545.ece?homepage=true

Haha thanks to brf I can spot these divisive articles from a good distance.
All the favorite words are there - patriarchy, majority, minority, upper caste, supremacist, chauvinist, hate, fear. A new one for me is lynching of dalits. It feels like they have an algorithm that takes these words and puts conjunctions in between.
The question is what is goal here?


Care to share a list of keywords for us newcomers?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 12:42

Rupa Subramanya

Verified account
@rupasubramanya
Follow Follow @rupasubramanya
More Rupa Subramanya Retweeted Dr.C.M.Upadhyay
If exit polls were true about a massive BJP victory, why would CBI issue a clean to the Yadavs?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 12:42

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
2h2 hours ago

On counting day tomorrow, watch out for Rahul Gandhi & Dimple Yadav, if both trail by large margins in early rounds, then BJP could even be heading towards 75 in Uttar Pradesh!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 22 May 2019 12:43

Karan M wrote:I really wonder whether the deliberate delay introduced in results counting is related to the above.

Rajasthan is the next target per above report.

One way or the other, we have to now spend more on defence and ramp up capabilities ASAP


Well, need to deal terrorism with iron hand. No more SSSV thing when it comes to terrorism. Even yesterday 11 people died from another attack in Arunachal Pradesh. We got so used to it that it's no longer hot topic here or in SM. Look at SriLanka, just one attack (with different bombings) how they are reacting to it. I hoped govt would have brought back NOTA, would have looked into local support during 26/11 etc. We have good number of internal enemies that simply spending on defense will not help.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 12:44

cough cough

Dr Praveen Patil
‏@5Forty3
May 20

Most tweeple think HDK of Karnataka will be the 1st to fall after May 23rd.
An unsolicited advise to BJP - yes, @BSYBJP has helped build the party in Karnataka, but now Modi has given you a great opportunity to create new leadership in the state, take it!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Yagnasri » 22 May 2019 12:46

Jagan is most likely to side with NDA as Naidu is the prime mover on the UPA side and both can not be on the same side. The fact that Pawar could not speak with Jagan is a clear indication of that. Jagan must have been seriously worried about the results as per AP media projections which are saying that CBN will win and UPA3 will form the Gov in Delhi and CBN will play a critical role in that. Even reasonable Telugu Jurnos are saying those things. Entire AP will be in a big shock if NM wins.

On one thing I am happy. There will be no power to Telugu people in Delhi for the next five years.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 22 May 2019 12:53

ramana wrote:Folks India Today gave access to the whole AXIS poll at their site and you can go look at all the states and see how they stack up per their poll.
One thing is they categorize tough seats as those with difference of 3% and show which party is leading
for eg. TMC/BJP would mean TMC is leading in the tough seat etc.

I suggest look up Bengal, UP, and AP (Omkar et al).


I am more interested in TG.. they are giving BJP 3 seats - 2 of which are as per expectations, third is a surprise.

- Nizamabad, massive if BJP pulls this off as its against KCR's daughter, the Axis poll lists BJP/TRS as popular parties and as a tough seat. Disagree - its a very very tough seat. With >50% chance of BJP victory. The local candidate has been grooming this seat for a while, spending time with farmers, he even used his own funds to set up free medical clinics for poor children for several years now. He comes from a political family, his dad is former state congress president & now leader of TRS.. and has enough financial muscle, community support, etc. KCR's daughter apparently ignored farmer's plight for the past 5 yrs and there is serious farmer anger. Fingers crossed.

- Karimnagar, this was KCR's own seat for 3 times in a row. But somehow the local BJP candidate has managed to galvanize and build mass following among rural youth. A strong Hindutva candidate, he has had one too many verbal duels with Owaisi saab and even his house was stoned after he lost MLA elections by MIM goons a few months back. The Axis poll says its not a tough seat and he would win. I would've agreed with this exit poll if not for the money power of both the congress & TRS rivals. Kudos to Shah on studying the pulse, identifying this person & reward him with an MP seat candidature.

-The third one they predict is Adilabad, which is in the tribal belt, the local BJP candidate is a genuine tribal activist but financially weak compared to his stronger congress, TRS opponents. The exit poll mentions its a BJP vs cong fight, while my opinion its a TRS vs Cong fight. Disagree with their estimate as the party doesn't have strong cadre here like the other two.

Additionally:
-Agree w/ exit poll prediction on Secunderabad. BJP will lose their incumbent seat to TRS by a huge margin.
-Disagree with the exit poll on Mahboobnagar that predicts an easy walkover for TRS - the congress defected BJP candidate has good grip on the district and congress has a reasonable candidate as well - its a 3-way fight. BJP candidate has ~34% chance, compared to her rivals.
Last edited by OmkarC on 22 May 2019 12:54, edited 1 time in total.

Sridhar K
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sridhar K » 22 May 2019 12:54

Singha wrote:Rupa Subramanya

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More Rupa Subramanya Retweeted Dr.C.M.Upadhyay
If exit polls were true about a massive BJP victory, why would CBI issue a clean to the Yadavs?


Chatter among some of the faithful by tying up some recent developments like Ambani withdrawal, CBi clean chit to SP, Satta bazzar prediction, NDA dinner invite, Nitish utterances is that BJP will get around 250 odd and will need to keep the NDA allies in fold to ensure 272 plus.

Now look at EVM noise Akilesh Bajenji meet, Naidu-jihadidi meet and Pawarful pulling in allies from this perspective.

Guided by Dilbu, "Karnataka redux for BJP at the center"

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nits » 22 May 2019 13:14

Singha wrote:not this time. please read my post a few posts above. due to 5 VVPATS, the real counting will start around 12 noon not 8:30AM.


VVPAT Slips will be counted at last; delay will be in declaration of final result not in trend. The paper trail machines slips will be counted in the end.As per the procedure, first the slips will be counted and the EVM displays would be switched on later to match the results.

any constituency where vvpat differs evm in those 5 booths i dont know what will happen, maybe a full vvpat count in (a) that booth only (b) all booths


In case of a mismatch, the results based in paper slip count will be considered as final. The entire exercise of EVM-paper trail machine matching will take an additional four to five hours.

All details here - https://www.rediff.com/news/report/lok- ... 190522.htm

nachiket
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 13:18

Singha wrote:Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
2h2 hours ago

On counting day tomorrow, watch out for Rahul Gandhi & Dimple Yadav, if both trail by large margins in early rounds, then BJP could even be heading towards 75 in Uttar Pradesh!

PP needs to set a limit on his over-confidence. :roll: He's going to end up with massive egg on his face at this rate.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Nsmith » 22 May 2019 13:19

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

nachiket
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 13:24

The NDA allies dinner has brought out the dhoti shiverer in me thinking it is all because Amit Shah is expecting a relatively poor showing and needs to keep the current allies close and also signal to potential allies like Jagan and Patnaik that BJP can be good for them.

NDA will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby rhytha » 22 May 2019 13:26

Behind the numbers: How India Today-Axis My India forecast seats

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2019-05-21

Only 1 pollster for 1 constituency, but the survey had 7,42,187 respondents across the country and was conducted in every Lok Sabha seat. On an average, there were around 1,400 respondents in every constituency.

Sridhar K
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sridhar K » 22 May 2019 13:28

Rajesh Chakrams seat by seat assessment on TN
looks realistic to me

https://twitter.com/myindmakers/status/ ... 66657?s=19


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