2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 13 May 2019 22:06

BJP this time has got galore of actors fighting elections. Starting right from Sunny Deol to Niruha to Ravi Kissan to Manoj Tiwari to Kirran Kherto Hema Malini to Smriti, Add Babul Supriyo and Hans Raj Hans to the mix, This seems like everyone from tinsel town wants to jump the bandwagon of political role.
Tiwari, Niruha and Si have very tough fight on hands while rest of them should go thru easily. The other side of the aisle has Moon Moon Sen and Urmila and Hassan and Prakashraj fighting for entry into Parl.

PS: Is Rupa Ganguly fighting elections this time ?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 May 2019 22:11

Ardeshir · Post by **Ardeshir** » 13 May 2019 22:12

Vikas wrote:Why there is so much Hai-tauba when someone gets banned on Twitter. It is prerogative of twitter to ban or allow folks to tweet.
Don't like it, move onto some other SM platform. The way some people did vilaap over TrueIndology getting banned or before that Mediacrook, it was mind boggling.

Twitter is not exclusively trying to nail down certain section of Indian twitterites. I know it because I had worked for them sometime back for a short duration. Lot of arm chair critics think that opinions can be molded or worse elections can be won or lost by twitter campaigns. The only way elections can be won is by going out and voting for the person you want to see elected. Period !!
Meanwhile RaGa has apologized for Sam's remark but the damage has been done. Right before elections in Delhi & Punjab, The guy chimes in with his insensitive remarks and then tries to hide behind lack of Hindi knowledge.

That is contrary to what Jack Dorsey himself admitted to when he appeared on Joe Rogan's podcast.

Dorsey admitted that Twitter has a left-wing bias, which is fine by itself if that's what they want to lean towards. The problem is when any LW voice gets amplified, and RW voices get stifled or banned. When this happens systematically during an election, it can very well construed to be 'interfering in an election'.
"Move onto some other SM platform" is not feasible due to network effects. You can move, but the audience you have built over years isn't going to jump overnight.

Twitter/FB and the like avoid penalties from hate speech laws (in the US), by claiming that they are like a telecom provider, who shouldn't be held liable for the speech of its users. Fair enough. I agree. That line gets blurred when they censor and/or police what speech is acceptable on the platform. Then you are an editor selecting what is allowed. You are no longer an AT&T or Jio in that case. Mota bhai is not going to call you personally if you made a joke about gays or 72 Virgins, but Maulana Zuckeruddin will.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 13 May 2019 22:14

Btw, everyone on RW side should brazen out the radar, email etc etc on twitter

Looks like this is a well rounded ploy to keep the opposition engaged in nothing ness than any issue that can actually impact election

Let them keep on ROTFL and keep on talking about Radar and digital photo and email; 90% of the voter of the country won't bother and even the other 10% who bother won't change their voting preference because of these.

In the mean time there are small news like inflation marginally up etc which may become political talking point. There might be some more if they really look at. But instead, when Cong is not fighting #huatohua , their intellectual think tanks busy gufflowing on #radar, #email

I think NaMo did all these utterance fully knowing; gave them an easier way to lough at him on silly issues that can be easily reversed/countered on technical points without allowing them to search for electoral issues on their own. Communication strategy chess at it's finest; anticipating what the counter of opposition communication should be 3 step ahead and making them play accordingly

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 13 May 2019 22:15

ramana wrote:RaGa will.have to expel Pitroda as I suggested on Twitter.

R Ji, I think it would be too late now even if Sam is expelled. Moreover Aam janta finds it a drama after what happened with Mani Aiyar. The die has been cast and Sam has taken down Congress hopes in Delhi,Harayana and Punjab. Whatever congress can save in Punjab will be all due to Captain and memories of immense corruption by SAD leadership.
Add Sidhu's attempt in carving a space for himself in Punjab Politics, Congress must be having sinking feeling like Titanic right after it hit the iceberg.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 13 May 2019 22:17

Vikas wrote:BJP this time has got galore of actors fighting elections. Starting right from Sunny Deol to Niruha to Ravi Kissan to Manoj Tiwari to Kirran Kherto Hema Malini to Smriti, Add Babul Supriyo and Hans Raj Hans to the mix, This seems like everyone from tinsel town wants to jump the bandwagon of political role.
Tiwari, Niruha and Si have very tough fight on hands while rest of them should go thru easily. The other side of the aisle has Moon Moon Sen and Urmila and Hassan and Prakashraj fighting for entry into Parl.

PS: Is Rupa Ganguly fighting elections this time ?

Rupa Ganguly is already in RS; the state BJP leaders kicked her upstairs and pushed Doodh Kumar Mandal under the bus in an effort to keep the TMC heat low on state BJP.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 13 May 2019 22:21

Vikas wrote:
ramana wrote:RaGa will.have to expel Pitroda as I suggested on Twitter.
R Ji, I think it would be too late now even if Sam is expelled. Moreover Aam janta finds it a drama after what happened with Mani Aiyar. The die has been cast and Sam has taken down Congress hopes in Delhi,Harayana and Punjab. Whatever congress can save in Punjab will be all due to Captain and memories of immense corruption by SAD leadership.
Add Sidhu's attempt in carving a space for himself in Punjab Politics, Congress must be having sinking feeling like Titanic right after it hit the iceberg.

Sidhu retired hurt; throat damaged it seems!!!!

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 13 May 2019 22:25

Ardeshir wrote:
Vikas wrote:Snip...
That is contrary to what Jack Dorsey himself admitted to when he appeared on Joe Rogan's podcast.
---
Dorsey admitted that Twitter has a left-wing bias, which is fine by itself if that's what they want to lean towards. The problem is when any LW voice gets amplified, and RW voices get stifled or banned. When this happens systematically during an election, it can very well construed to be 'interfering in an election'.
"Move onto some other SM platform" is not feasible due to network effects. You can move, but the audience you have built over years isn't going to jump overnight.

Twitter/FB and the like avoid penalties from hate speech laws (in the US), by claiming that they are like a telecom provider, who shouldn't be held liable for the speech of its users. Fair enough. I agree. That line gets blurred when they censor and/or police what speech is acceptable on the platform. Then you are an editor selecting what is allowed. You are no longer an AT&T or Jio in that case. Mota bhai is not going to call you personally if you made a joke about gays or 72 Virgins, but Maulana Zuckeruddin will.

Ardeshir Ji, Every plateform has its own bias. Heck even BRF has its biases but that is the nature of the the beast. But to say that Twitter is hunting RW voices is stretching it too far unless there is a secret cell in some dark corner of Twitter HQ.
Banning is mostly a function of people reporting a tweet and if you can game the system, you can always fly under the radar or get enough people reporting to get someone warned or banned.

Back to election reporting, Looks like Indira's nose hasn't got much traction with Aam Abdul and the temple run is now so passe'.
She is no smarter than Pappu and her gig of making kids abuse PM Modi has certainly turned off lot many fence sitters. It absolutely
brought down the level of discourse and brand value of being Gandhi.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2019 22:44

what is the plan for the next gen leader?

will he somehow by affidavit change his surname from vadra to gandhi?

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 13 May 2019 22:48

Singha wrote:what is the plan for the next gen leader?

will he somehow by affidavit change his surname from vadra to gandhi?

I expect them to copy playbook of Zardari. By 2029, people would have forgotten evils of Congress rule and the new Gen can start with a clean state.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2019 22:56

KCRs third front yatra ended on a dull note today as DMK chief said he is tied to Congress.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 May 2019 23:04

Modi even used the comment I am not a technical person and prefaced his remark with that. It was a query, not an order.

The guy is sharp and immediately picked up that if sensors on IAF aircraft weapons have a problem ID'ing the target with heavy cloud cover, then chances were the Pakistanis would face the same on targeting our planes.

This is intelligence combined with focus, the kind shown by purposeful senior management who listen to a complex presentation on a topic that is not their area of expertise, YET immediately pick up the key points and get to work on how it can be managed. Very few people possess this kind of ready intelligence, and concentration. Many just stick to their area of expertise, or don't pay attention, or are even too scared of failure/image to put forth their viewpoints. Many of those who do, don't show context or understanding.

Yet he was targeted. Anyone else would have taken this into account, as also the fact that "radar etc" are used colloquially when speaking of aircraft being detected and targeted.

Are these moron critics of his so precise when they discuss any topic, all the time? Never mind their dishonesty even when his comments are actually relevant.

You can imagine the desperation of the left wing/INC apparatus when they resort to such asinine nitpicking.

And saying Twitter does not have a bias and even if it does, it can be gamed is equally silly. If the playing field is slanted against you, ask for it to be leveled not twist yourself into knots justifying the bias or come up with more and more convoluted methods to play, despite the umpires bias. If Modi returns, the GOI should do all it can to hold Twitter to account for its bias and haul them over the coals. Similarly, for all the fancypants Economist, NYT etc.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 May 2019 23:12

Twitters supposed unbiasedness does not compute with the targeted hounding of handles like trueindology, agniveer and rishibagree. A completely non political handle like saurav jha is also targeted.

Twitter India has consistently appointed pro jihadi and LeLi people to positions of influence.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2019 23:13

leaders have to take a call considering the overall situation of opportunity cost of waiting for better conditions, chance of secret leaking out to press etc.

the D-day in normandy was also given goahead in much less than idea conditions. after some of the 1000s of troops packed into ships had been embarked days ago and were seasick.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 May 2019 23:14

Twitter as a commercial entity should come under RTI.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 13 May 2019 23:14

Kati wrote:
Singha wrote:did siddharth shankar ray use ruthless extra judicial methods with support from Indira gandhi to break the back of the naxals in WB?

someone from that era needs to educate us.
Yes, Yes, and Yes.
S S Ray was given a free hand to exterminate urban naxals. Thousands of Cal Univ, Jadavpur U, and Presidency College (now Univ) were rounded up, taken to Kolkata Maidan (the sprawling open green space next to the race course and Fort William) in early morning,
told to run,... and they ran, and police fired from the back...... then molten asphalt was poured on their face to disfigure so that even their own mothers couldn't recognize them.... and then the bodies were dumped in Ganga at various places..... In pretty much two years things calmed down....

Those with connections ran in two directions - out of the state, and the US consulate. It was said that the US consulate was too busy to issue them visa / travel documents. Uncle was too happy to co-opt many of these naxals, and help them settle in the mid-Atlantic big cities. They provided valuable info about the not so violent intelligentia who were sympathetic to Viet-Congs and were writing fire hot poems and articles against the US bombing of Vietnam. ..... Prominent bong literary figures were then induced with money & honey to change their mood overnight .... That's another story for another day.

Yikes.. holy shit! Any book detailing what happened.. No wonder leftists had such a strong hold on Bengal for so long.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2019 23:19

is raheel kursheed the head of twitter india? he is a big priyanka gandhi fan

Raheel Khursheed
@Raheelk
9h9 hours ago
More
We predict the BJP’s vote share fall will be sharper here than in Western UP. And at the end of phase 6, we believe the Gathbandhan will win 53 seats (± 5). The BJP will win 22 (± 3) and the Congress 5 (± 2).

Raheel Khursheed
‏

@Raheelk
9h9 hours ago
More
Phase 6 Analysis up on @Anthroai : Zero — that’s the number of seats we believe the BJP has won in Uttar Pradesh in Phase 6.
The MGB is winning because they have stitched together a winning combination.

he peddles a "AI powered" website on elections - https://anthro.ai/indianelections/

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2019 23:23

Another important factor is that the rate at which development has occured from the perspective of the bottom of the pyramid, has accelerated significantly. Us middle class folks largely don't see it or appreciate it. But data is pretty broad based. In 2004, only about 15-20 percent of the Indian rural population had a pucca road, electricity, toilet or bank account access. By 2009 it was in the mid 30 percent. In 2014, it was in the mid 40 percent. Progress indeed.

But here's what the linear progression and current figure looks like, listing overall basic goods (road, electricity, cooking fuel, sanitation) coverage to the rural population of India upto 2014, then projecting that trendline forward, and also listing current 2019 figures of the same, vs trendline. I'll be generous and give slightly better than actual figures for Past_Data, to boost the projection figures:

Code: Select all

Year  Past_Data    Projection    Current_Achieved
2004     21%         -                 - 
2009     36%         -                 - 
2014     47%         -                 -
2019      -          61%              92%
2024      -          74%   
2029      -          86%   
2034      -          99%

So this is the reality - at the pace of improvement of the rural population's access to basic public goods, it would have taken until the early 2030s to achieve the boost in metrics that were accomplished in 5 years between 2014 and 2019.

Of course, critical arguments can be made, e.g.
* 99% coverage according to Saubhagya mission doesn't mean every home has electricity or can afford it. This is true. However the coverage metric isn't a new creation - it's been the standard rural electrification metric. No point in shooting the metric messenger - by that very same metric, the coverage grew at the pace in Past_Data column, and was projected to grow in the Projection column.
* Ujjwala scheme needs re-evaluation since people cannot afford upfront cylinder costs. This I agree with - the "pay upfront, get DBT later" approach hampers its repeated use. There's also the problem that to many people it's still cheaper to go cut firewood. This isn't a failure of the program though - it just means it was offered earlier than a subsection of the population has the means to continuously afford it. I don't expect this to cause the government to be punished - the poor recognize that they're getting facilities even before they've the means to use it fully. There was an article recently about how "30% of Ujjwala beneficiaries still use firewood", implying the program is a failure. That is crazy - it shows that everyone, even those at the very bottom of the pyramid who can't fully afford it, have access to it still.
* Same story with electricity. There are some fiscal pressures on SEBs because the ability to collect utility payments isn't as good as the extent to which electricity access has been broadened. This is the same situation as Ujjwala - people are getting electricity access they don't have the means to pay for entirely.

Multiple such parameters reflect a new reality - actual coverage of these has overtaken the aggregate number of people who can pay to use them. For pretty much all of our independent history, it was the reverse - far more people waited for basic needs they could pay for, but had no access to. Now, the problem is the other way around - with 100% village electrification and >90% cooking gas access, the problem is that per capita incomes at the very bottom aren't high enough to pay for these facilities yet, though they are available. So the next step is to raise their incomes and productivity.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 May 2019 23:25

Karan M wrote:Modi even used the comment I am not a technical person and prefaced his remark with that. It was a query, not an order.
The guy is sharp and immediately picked up that if sensors on IAF aircraft weapons have a problem ID'ing the target with heavy cloud cover, then chances were the Pakistanis would face the same on targeting our planes.

This is intelligence combined with focus, the kind shown by purposeful senior management who listen to a complex presentation on a topic that is not their area of expertise, YET immediately pick up the key points and get to work on how it can be managed. Very few people possess this kind of ready intelligence, and concentration. Many just stick to their area of expertise, or don't pay attention, or are even too scared of failure/image to put forth their viewpoints. Many of those who do, don't show context or understanding.

There is another side to this as well: terrain. The Indian planes knew exactly where to go, the target was pre-programmed down to millimeters. They could do a swift penetration, launch and return. The Pakis had to hunt for them through murderous high-altitude terrain. How much fun is negotiating radar with 15000-foot mountains and deep valleys scattering like crazy, in rain and cloud?

Anyone seen the cartoon of the pilot seeing a goat right ahead of them, and saying:

Hey! What's that mountain goat (Brinjej Ayesha) doing way up in this cloudbank?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 13 May 2019 23:29

Singha wrote:KCRs third front yatra ended on a dull note today as DMK chief said he is tied to Congress.

Generally many regional parties and INC are roped in together by Naidu as an alternative to BJP-led in case NDA falls short of majority mark. KCR is going on spoil trip to that alternative by showing another his own alternative as new kid in the block. He has less credibility in what he says as all other parties know how KCR flip-flops. Where as Naidu led both NDA and NF/UF fronts as convenor/leader for last 30 years or so and has ability to rope in all non-BJP and non-INC parties. He has already positioned himself as convenor/mediator for newly formed/forming Kichidi/Gajibiji(garbled)/Madras-Mixture front after quitting as NDA convenor a year ago.

Of course all these politics are predicated upon how NDA fares with respect to the majority mark.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 13 May 2019 23:31

Pro-BJP based psephologists are predicting that BJP will deliver a shocking (+ve way) result from UP. Libtards are projecting dismal performance for BJP from UP. Whom to believe? Guess we have to wait till 23rd...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2019 23:34

imo the most vulnerable poor are not the farmers fighting adverse weather and small plots of land. they still have a supportive society and presence of govt institutions like school, healthcare in villages.

most mistreated are the destitute farmers who have left the land and come to city to work in construction jobs as casual labour, because they have no other marketable skill. caught in the claws of tough labour contractors they are moved from work site to work site and live in plastic roofed shanties, with no water, electricity, toilet or free access to medical care. sometimes they live in under construction buildings they are put to work in. kids are looked after by bigger kids while ailing weak mothers try to earn a little more by lifting soil or rocks. night some shrubs and branches to boil a few bowls of rice and then sleep till the dawn...day after endless day.

the more bigger contractors on big projects like office parks and large apts do follow some stds and setup tin or cement walled labour camps with electricity , water, toilets and most have dish tv also. its the smaller contractors who latch on and squeeze this vulnerable class to the bone.

for them even availing of any govt benefit is a distant dream, devoid of any address or identity outside the villages they left behind.

something ought to be done to stop this exploitation, even if like Demo it inflicts some pain on the contractors.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 13 May 2019 23:35

Suraj wrote:Another important factor is that the rate at which development has occured from the perspective of the bottom of the pyramid, has accelerated significantly. Us middle class folks largely don't see it or appreciate it. But data is pretty broad based. In 2004, only about 15-20 percent of the Indian rural population had a pucca road, electricity, toilet or bank account access. By 2009 it was in the mid 30 percent. In 2014, it was in the mid 40 percent. Progress indeed.

But here's what the linear progression and current figure looks like, listing overall basic goods (road, electricity, cooking fuel, sanitation) coverage to the rural population of India upto 2014, then projecting that trendline forward, and also listing current 2019 figures of the same, vs trendline. I'll be generous and give slightly better than actual figures for Past_Data, to boost the projection figures:
Code: Select all
Year  Past_Data    Projection    Current_Achieved
2004     21%         -                 - 
2009     36%         -                 - 
2014     47%         -                 -
2019      -          61%              92%
2024      -          74%   
2029      -          86%   
2034      -          99%
So this is the reality - at the pace of improvement of the rural population's access to basic public goods, it would have taken until the early 2030s to achieve the boost in metrics that were accomplished in 5 years between 2014 and 2019.

Of course, critical arguments can be made, e.g.
* 99% coverage according to Saubhagya mission doesn't mean every home has electricity or can afford it. This is true. However the coverage metric isn't a new creation - it's been the standard rural electrification metric. No point in shooting the metric messenger - by that very same metric, the coverage grew at the pace in Past_Data column, and was projected to grow in the Projection column.
* Ujjwala scheme needs re-evaluation since people cannot afford upfront cylinder costs. This I agree with - the "pay upfront, get DBT later" approach hampers its repeated use. There's also the problem that to many people it's still cheaper to go cut firewood. This isn't a failure of the program though - it just means it was offered earlier than a subsection of the population has the means to continuously afford it. I don't expect this to cause the government to be punished - the poor recognize that they're getting facilities even before they've the means to use it fully. There was an article recently about how "30% of Ujjwala beneficiaries still use firewood", implying the program is a failure. That is crazy - it shows that everyone, even those at the very bottom of the pyramid who can't fully afford it, have access to it still.
* Same story with electricity. There are some fiscal pressures on SEBs because the ability to collect utility payments isn't as good as the extent to which electricity access has been broadened. This is the same situation as Ujjwala - people are getting electricity access they don't have the means to pay for entirely.

Multiple such parameters reflect a new reality - actual coverage of these has overtaken the aggregate number of people who can pay to use them. For pretty much all of our independent history, it was the reverse - far more people waited for basic needs they could pay for, but had no access to. Now, the problem is the other way around - with 100% village electrification and >90% cooking gas access, the problem is that per capita incomes at the very bottom aren't high enough to pay for these facilities yet. So the next step is to raise their incomes and productivity.

Actually, about Ujjwala, the scheme was not originally like that. The earlier process used to be that the money would come to the account the moment a refill is booked. Unfortunately people gamed the system. They would book the cylindar, wait for the subsidy money to be deposited into the account and then cancel the refill. Hence the new process.

Also, one thing to keep in mind is that - not the entire amount comes to account, only the subsidy amount. The poor still need to pay for the non-subsidy part of the cylinder. Since the subsidy is capped and the remaining price is still higher compared to UPA period, it gives the opposition a stick to beat the govt.

A better mechanism need to be derived to provide more subsidy to the real needy upfront while stopping the subsidy for middle class and above and also stopping the gaming of the system.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2019 23:41

Picklu wrote:Also, one thing to keep in mind is that - not the entire amount comes to account, only the subsidy amount. The poor still need to pay for the non-subsidy part of the cylinder. Since the subsidy is capped and the remaining price is still higher compared to UPA period, it gives the opposition a stick to beat the govt.

It may be a stick to beat the govt with politically, but from a consumer perspective, having access to something, but lacking the best financial means to put it to use, isn't something I see people blaming the government for. It's a problem for sure, but a fixable one. The government could pay for the cylinders upfront and receive payments from the population later (less subsidy). However, this frontloads the cost to government and makes things harder. But I expect this to be finetuned, since it's simply a question of financial organization - GoI could even float short term bonds to avoid having to pay upfront themselves.

People IMHO would be significantly more forgiving of the government offering them the goods and still working out the financial modalities, than the case where the very access to the goods is 1-2 decades away. The fundamental change today is that in most cases, more people have access to something, than they even have the means to pay for today. They would recognize that.

negi · Post by **negi** » 13 May 2019 23:45

Karan M wrote:Modi even used the comment I am not a technical person and prefaced his remark with that. It was a query, not an order.

The guy is sharp and immediately picked up that if sensors on IAF aircraft weapons have a problem ID'ing the target with heavy cloud cover, then chances were the Pakistanis would face the same on targeting our planes. .

Modi said something which most of the morons missed.

1. When asked about if mission be delayed due to cloud cover his first concern was if termites on the inside could compromise the very mission by leaking the dates (he said this in the interview clearly in polite manner) , even a greenpine tied to a Boeing 747 would do not good if enemy knows you are coming so cloud cover was not as important as element of surprise and secrecy was i.e. time was of essence.
2. Quite a few in the fauj ( likes of that retired AM who responded to Modi's remarks as election time sloganeering) have forgotten important tenant of fighting i.e. strike the enemy when latter least expects it , cloudy weather is obviously less than ideal situation for A2G modes when compared to AD Radars but then it also means TSPAF would be expecting us the least . The SPICE anyways don't need Radar guidance .

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2019 23:48

Singha wrote:most mistreated are the destitute farmers who have left the land and come to city to work in construction jobs as casual labour, because they have no other marketable skill. caught in the claws of tough labour contractors they are moved from work site to work site and live in plastic roofed shanties, with no water, electricity, toilet or free access to medical care.

the more bigger contractors on big projects like office parks and large apts do follow some stds and setup tin or cement walled labour camps with electricity , water, toilets and most have dish tv also. its the smaller contractors who latch on and squeeze this vulnerable class to the bone.

for them even availing of any govt benefit is a distant dream, devoid of any address or identity outside the villages they left behind.

something ought to be done to stop this exploitation, even if like Demo it inflicts some pain on the contractors.

A pertinent point, but this being the elections thread, none of those migrant workers are registered voters in the city. If they sought to vote, they'd have to go to their village, correct ?

But yes, their numbers are increasing, as the urban and infrastructure buildout increases the number of people who live far from their constituency, and lack the means to politically assert their case. It's something to give greater attention to , and feedback that could be directly offered to a very receptive PMO.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 13 May 2019 23:49

Suraj wrote:
Picklu wrote:Also, one thing to keep in mind is that - not the entire amount comes to account, only the subsidy amount. The poor still need to pay for the non-subsidy part of the cylinder. Since the subsidy is capped and the remaining price is still higher compared to UPA period, it gives the opposition a stick to beat the govt.
It may be a stick to beat the govt with politically, but from a consumer perspective, having access to something, but lacking the best financial means to put it to use, isn't something I see people blaming the government for. It's a problem for sure, but a fixable one. The government could pay for the cylinders upfront and receive payments from the population later (less subsidy). However, this frontloads the cost to government and makes things harder. But I expect this to be finetuned, since it's simply a question of financial organization - GoI could even float short term bonds to avoid having to pay upfront themselves.

People IMHO would be significantly more forgiving of the government offering them the goods and still working out the financial modalities, than the case where the very access to the goods is 1-2 decades away. The fundamental change today is that in most cases, more people have access to something, than they even have the means to pay for today. They would recognize that.

The access part I agree 100%. The political squabble lies in the fact that a subsidized cylinder would cost in Rs 4xx during UPA while, at a minimum Rs 7xx during NDA 2

Also, as I mentioned, the initial process was upfront payment of subsidy only but the govt did not front load the subsidy only for poor; and a large number of unscrupulous folks took advantage by ordering refill, pocketing money and then cancelling refill. After this happened for a few quarters, the gas companies smarted up and the process were tweaked.

Vinu · Post by **Vinu** » 13 May 2019 23:56

The other co-founder of this portal (anthro.ai) has explained their assumptions and inferences in series of tweets under the thread 'what would make us wrong'.
Many of their assumptions are straight contradiction to known RW psepholigists' but for the same data points. So obviously they arrived different conclusion.

One of their assumption is Women have turned out larger numbers than men in UP to vote against BJP. This assumption is questionable.

As one of our BRFite mentioned few pages ago this can be used as 'Emotiinal mitigation'.

Having set that, my dhoti shivering reached alarming levels in ' Dhoti Shivering Magnitude scale' and none of Chintamani or BB articles / data points are helping.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2019 23:58

Picklu wrote:The access part I agree 100%. The political squabble lies in the fact that a subsidized cylinder would cost in Rs 4xx during UPA while, at a minimum Rs 7xx during NDA 2

The political squabble is noise. At the end of UPA2, let's say 45% had access to gas cylinders (probably an overestimation). In 2019, the figure is ~93%. In terms of raw numbers, that's an increase from 365 million people to 750 million people. Politics ultimately boils down to the numbers.

With >9/10 people having access to most basic public goods, it means practically everyone in rural India knows they're at the cusp of having access to basic goods they're waiting for, if they haven't already, because at >90% current coverage, almost every last person will have at least one person in their social circle who got access within the last 5 years, therefore they know it's coming. It's like innoculation - once you reach the necessary >90% critical mass, there's very little chance you're going to be left out of development for long.

The previous rate of improvement in baseline public goods delivery was good, but would have kept us a very poor country for 15-20 years longer than what the enormous improvement in access to these goods has done between 2014-2019. May 23 will tell us whether the political consequences of this effort are as substantial as the effort and results that have been achieved.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 14 May 2019 00:13

Suraj wrote:A more sophisticated situation than Kejriwal trying to place his cheek in the path of every swinging hand he sees around him .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2019 00:20

people living hard to mouth in cities have no leeway to stop working for a few days and go vote back in eastern india.

but the next rung - skilled labour in metals, carpentry, painting, plumbing, electrical, masonry are doing very well in construction boom and often travel first time by air, as time is money and they are loaded with work. these are the people you see flying to lucknow, varanasi, patna, taking selfies all over, wandering on the tarmac near the plane to take better pics and attempting sometimes to video record the airhostesses and getting a good scolding

....sometimes one or two try to open the emergency door as well.

but they are earning well now. far far better than their parents. most have moved to motor bikes.

they are also the 'educator cells' who have seen the more developed parts of india, and can tell their communities that much can be done better...carrying namo vikas message back to hinterlands. they dont want handouts but want to work and move ahead.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 14 May 2019 00:23

So fair to assume anti-incumbency is going to be a big factor in a potentially fractured mandate ? If the NDA does not stake claim, a GE is almost certain within 18months. I feel that NDA's acche din raised the expectations and the govt found it rather tough to deliver.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2019 00:24

mmasand wrote:So fair to assume anti-incumbency is going to be a big factor in a potentially fractured mandate ? If the NDA does not stake claim, a GE is almost certain within 18months. I feel that NDA's acche din raised the expectations and the govt found it rather tough to deliver.

are you saying this after soaking up that "AI powered" website? i would hold on to my lungi until may23 than start the funeral ceremonies now.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 14 May 2019 00:33

Singha wrote:
mmasand wrote:So fair to assume anti-incumbency is going to be a big factor in a potentially fractured mandate ? If the NDA does not stake claim, a GE is almost certain within 18months. I feel that NDA's acche din raised the expectations and the govt found it rather tough to deliver.
are you saying this after soaking up that "AI powered" website? i would hold on to my lungi until may23 than start the funeral ceremonies now.

I've held the urge to read any 'analysis' that does not explain its methodology, but on the basis of the issues that have been highlighted well ahead of the elections. The mango man doesn't resonate with hear say as much as they do with innate needs.

Let's not fall into the echo chamber like 2004, it is evident that development alone is not a plank the elections can be fought on, but aspirations and culture. Of course, at the end of the day (23rd), the junta will paint a rather elaborate picture for all. This is the biggest suspense movie of them all.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 May 2019 00:44

mmasand wrote:I've held the urge to read any 'analysis' that does not explain its methodology, but on the basis of the issues that have been highlighted well ahead of the elections. The mango man doesn't resonate with hear say as much as they do with innate needs.

We can apply that to your argument too

As you've posted:

So fair to assume anti-incumbency is going to be a big factor in a potentially fractured mandate ? If the NDA does not stake claim, a GE is almost certain within 18months. I feel that NDA's acche din raised the expectations and the govt found it rather tough to deliver.

What are your metrics for anti-incumbency as well as for delivery - of what, and what figures do you have ?

I'm asking because I went and collected a lot of data I've posted over the past 20 pages.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 May 2019 00:45

ShyamSP wrote:
Singha wrote:KCRs third front yatra ended on a dull note today as DMK chief said he is tied to Congress.
Generally many regional parties and INC are roped in together by Naidu as an alternative to BJP-led in case NDA falls short of majority mark. KCR is going on spoil trip to that alternative by showing another his own alternative as new kid in the block. He has less credibility in what he says as all other parties know how KCR flip-flops. Where as Naidu led both NDA and NF/UF fronts as convenor/leader for last 30 years or so and has ability to rope in all non-BJP and non-INC parties. He has already positioned himself as convenor/mediator for newly formed/forming Kichidi/Gajibiji(garbled)/Madras-Mixture front after quitting as NDA convenor a year ago.

Of course all these politics are predicated upon how NDA fares with respect to the majority mark.

KCR is mooting a proposal that no matter who wins the elections, the post of deputy PM should mandatorily go to a regional party and he is obviously suggesting himself as the most qualified for the post.

one expects useless some crazy dude like uddhav thackeray to very forcefully take up on this meme and vociferously push himself for the post.

so what's wrong with mamta begum being the deputy PM in Modi's govt.

hasn't she had already identified a new hairdo that is just right for the next parliament.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 May 2019 00:52

Deleted.

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 May 2019 01:09

aylamrin wrote:
mmasand wrote:Lt Gen Panag is the news again for the wrong reasons, endorses a tweet calling for a revolution/coup if BJP retains LS.

I have to point out that what Lt. Gen (Retd) Panag has stated is seditious. Overthrowing a constitutional democratic elected parliament (coup) is sedition.

It does not matter if the person has an illustrious past service in the duty of the nation. Supporting a coup to overthrow a democratically elected government borne out of the largest and mostly peaceful constitutionally mandated exercise *is* sedition. Here Lt. Gen (Retd) Panag is both a traitor and a coward. Traitor to the very republic on whose behalf a soldier goes forth with supreme sacrifice. Coward since ordinary common folks have braved bullets by maoists and terrorists to exercise their franchise. And to call to overthrow outcome of that just because it is not to an individual (or a clique's) liking is pathetic.

---

As an individual what can you do? Well, do not forget to remind people that at this point Lt. Gen. (Retd) Panag is a traitor to the Republic of India.

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 May 2019 01:12

Uttam wrote:This is my first contribution to this thread.

My uncle who is a founder/supporter of AAP in Delhi. He voted NOTA. This was an absolute surprise for us. He has been a militant supporter of AAP and Khujli. I know it is anecdotal but still a significant one.

Uttam'ji thanks. I do think you might want to talk to your uncle and let him know that NOTA is still a vote for traitors. Particularly remind him of the statement from Lt. Gen (Retd) Panag and ask him if he supports sedition (coup).

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 May 2019 01:32

UndieTV: Another Congi steps on his own mijjile.

New Delhi:
Highlights PM Modi has often referred to Congress's all-time low tally of 44 seats
Mallikarjun Kharge said will PM "hang himself" if Congress won more seats
Mr Kharge earlier hit out at PM Modi over his remarks on Rajiv Gandhi

Senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge took a flying leap and landed in pakistan on Sunday, as voting took place in the sixth round of the national election, with his remarks on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mallikarjun Kharge was addressing a rally in Karnataka's Kalaburagi when he added to a growing pile of controversial comments cited as examples of political discourse touching rock-bottom during elections.
"Wherever he (Modi) goes, he keeps saying that Congress will not win 40 seats. Do you believe that? If Congress gets more than 40 seats, will Modi hang himself at Vijay Chowk in Delhi," questioned the veteran who led the Congress in the outgoing Lok Sabha.
The Prime Minister has often referred in his campaign speeches to the Congress's all-time low tally of 44 seats in 2014, when it was decimated in the BJP landslide. He has declared that this time, the party will score even less.
Senior BJP leader and lawmaker Shobha Karandlaje has demanded Mr Kharge's apology, saying that she never expected such low remarks from a senior leader like him. "Blatant lies, fake allegations, derogatory remarks have become common with hollow Congress, nothing progressive! He should apologise!" Ms Karandlaje tweeted.
Last week, Mr Kharge had hit out at PM Modi over his "corrupt No 1 " comment on Rajiv Gandhi, the father of Rahul Gandhi, and said the prime minister "missed any lessons on sanskar (cultural values) as he had left home at a young age".
"He did not get sanskar at home as he had fled home at a young age. Where will he get it? People should have control over their tongue when speaking," said the Congress stalwart, stepping on his own mijjile.
PM Modi has been criticised not only by the Congress but by several opposition parties over his comments on former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, who was assassinated by a Tamil Tigers suicide bomber in 1991. "Rajiv Gandhi was Mr Clean for his courtiers, but his life ended as 'Bhrashtachari No 1' (corrupt number 1)," the PM said at a rally.