2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 09 May 2019 20:37

Suraj wrote:The middle income trap is not an end result. It's an obstacle, something that can and should be tackled with policy options. My general belief is that the middle income trap is a result of a country 'running out of tricks' . This is particularly the case when a country depends on doing one trick very well to get to that point. But then the law of diminishing returns sets in, and they lose their competitive advantage to someone else, and lack the financial, technological or industrial resources to continue to move forward. The solution to avoiding that trap is to continuously maintain a broad based economy capable of producing or cheaply acquiring all primary resources, with a vast light/medium/heavy industry and a monster services/consumer economy upon that. We are rather well placed in that regard, except for lacking in secondary (industrial) capability. But we have time, resources and resolve to build it.

Not if we see another bout of UPA where the inflation gallops to two digits with highest borrowing cost for legitimate firms with literally free monies for the crony firms .
And whatever the govt manages to rake in as revenue is then spent on aNYAY transfers to supposedly the lowest 20 % but actually a big chunk of it skimmed from the top by their rural patronage networks and another big chunk diverted to ghost beneficiaries direct into congie coffers.
Then forget using the comparitive advantage of the young semi skilled pop of UP/Bihar/WB/Assam for labour intensive jobs - the political machinery will be bogged down further in congie style mai-baap politics addicting the vast eastern Indian population to govt handouts.

Chetak wrote:the beedis have preferential access to eu and ameriki markets which they exploit to the hilt. big industries don't have viability in many northern states because of corruption, extortion and many other law and order issues. In comparison, the south is relatively quieter/friendlier in terms of industrial climate, law and order and just maybe, just a little less corrupt.

Which is precisely what the guy is saying that if the eastern India is not politically reformed to remove the obstacles which currently deter the firms from moving in there to use the cheap labour/land/input costs there India's growth story will come to a stand still.
All that media is doing this and that is not our concern - he did give pretty much an apolitical prognosis of what can happen it a rentseeking congress dispensation comes to power. Those who can see the business implication and see beyond the channel,the presttitute anchor & its anti modi stance - i.e the business men & investors will understand the message on whom they have to support for robust economic growth.

pankajs wrote:What the heck is this guy talking about? If we will be Brazil then we will also be China on per capita. Besides, for us to hit the middle income trap, our per capita GDP in USD has to quadruple! That is a really long ... LONG way away ....

Economy slowing is one thing but talk of a middle income trap in the "next 5 years" is just bonkers.

Brazil has been languishing at low growth rates 1-4% since the 90s & what ever growth spurts it sees is due to cyclic commodities boom/bust in global economy.
China has clocked double digit growth rates since mid 90's and reached the percapita income levels of brazil with 1.4 billion pop. Brazil is in a middle income trap.

Getting Bengal & Orissa while retaining UP-Bihar under a BJP political dispensation will be a key
>get basic needs down (house.electricity,education,health)
>get basic infra
>basic law & order
>basic political dispensation responsive to the need (land procurement , clearances ,minimal rentseeking etc)

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 May 2019 21:04

Lilo: what’s said previous still holds if we have a succession of UPA like regimes . We have a more diversified economy than Brazil or Malaysia . Either we will be run by credible governments and will not have a problem surmounting the middle income trap zone , or we will be ruled by UPA like entities and will never even get to upper middle income in the foreseeable future, so no need to worry about being trapped there .

Heads I win, tails also I win

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 May 2019 21:11

UlanBatori wrote:Suraj: OT for this thread, but perhaps on the Indian econ thread you could pick up this discussion and build on that observation. I agree now that basic electricity connection (single-point) has reached pretty-much every village. Need to go 2 pakistan outdoors has been immensely reduced, though I have doubts about the functionality of the indoor SwBht pakistans. So what becomes possible now? Ppl have a little money in their bank accounts, they have basic insurance (catastrophic), health insurance is available.... what is the next stage of the rural economy? (if NDA comes back to power..)

Mongolian, Need to create skills to leverage the extra time and make them productive.
In the US industrial revolution was powered by small machine shops in homes.
Maybe 3D printing or additive mfg will do the same in India with 5 G connectivity.
Lets discuss and get the concept paper ready for November

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 May 2019 21:14

UlanBatori wrote:Can't remember if this is an update on Satta Bazaar
NDA @ 240, UPA @ 145 post Phase 5
Earlier enthusiasm among punters of a runaway NDA victory is no longer evident given lungi-shivering
Read the whole article: looks like it is fudged by CONGI madarssa math, becomes evident at the end. Can't even find an honest bookie these days, dang!
If they don't do exit polls, how can Satta Bajaar have good data I wonder. And if they DO exit polls, then they must be as wrong as the media exit polls of 2014. So I am confused.

UB the pricing is based on demand.
No knowledge is needed except for the initial start of the market.

For example a For-Ex trader in New York goes by the demand/volume of buy vs sell and adjusts prices.
Total driving in the fog.
No knowledge of the macro factors - geopolitics, economics, political stability etc.

williams · Post by **williams** » 09 May 2019 21:14

Egos aside, for every corrupt anti-national mole in the administration and the courts, there are twenty honest officers and judges. We think too much about the deep state because we hear about them more in the media. So don't worry, any, court challenge will fizzle out if Modi has the numbers. But if the numbers are not good, then everyone will jump, Modi has also created some enemies with the BJP old guard so they will make sure Modi is not the next PM.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 09 May 2019 21:39

Lilo wrote: [/list]
Getting Bengal & Orissa while retaining UP-Bihar under a BJP political dispensation will be a key
>get basic needs down (house.electricity,education,health)
>get basic infra
>basic law & order
>basic political dispensation responsive to the need (land procurement , clearances ,minimal rentseeking etc)

can developing the national waterways accelerate industrialization in East India? why has this not been a focus area for so long ?

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 09 May 2019 21:52

Talk about myfather, but also explain Rafale: Rahult to Modi – PTI

SIRSA (HARYANA): Congress president Rahul Gandhi on Thursday renewed his attack over alleged corruption in the Rafale aircraft deal, this time in response to Narendra Modi calling his late father and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi “Bharashtachari No 1”.

In Video: Talk about my father, but also explain Rafale: Rahul to PM Modi

Cheers

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 May 2019 21:55

vinod wrote:Congress has now started the fight back on Virat

Senior Navy officer rejects PM Modi's claim, says 'Gandhi family on-board INS Viraat for official visit'
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... sit/415657

Retired Vice Admiral Vinod Pasricha claimed that Rajiv Gandhi and his family were present on-board INS Viraat as they were on an official visit. He also claimed that no other visitors accompanied them.

That is a 'fightback' ? It's clear that they've completely lost their marbles if they think that argument is a fightback.

"No, Rajiv didn't take his chacha-bhatija along on Virat using it as a water taxi"

Instead

"What Rajiv actually did was take his chacha-bhatija along on Virat during official duties"

The former is just misuse of resources. The latter is misuse of resources, dereliction of official duty, unauthorized presence of foreigners and other parties during an official activity, and more.

If they had enough sense they'd shut up instead of furiously digging graves and jumping in.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 May 2019 22:05

Lilo wrote:
pankajs wrote:What the heck is this guy talking about? If we will be Brazil then we will also be China on per capita. Besides, for us to hit the middle income trap, our per capita GDP in USD has to quadruple! That is a really long ... LONG way away ....

Economy slowing is one thing but talk of a middle income trap in the "next 5 years" is just bonkers.
Brazil has been languishing at low growth rates 1-4% since the 90s & what ever growth spurts it sees is due to cyclic commodities boom/bust in global economy.
China has clocked double digit growth rates since mid 90's and reached the percapita income levels of brazil with 1.4 billion pop. Brazil is in a middle income trap.

Getting Bengal & Orissa while retaining UP-Bihar under a BJP political dispensation will be a key
>get basic needs down (house.electricity,education,health)
>get basic infra
>basic law & order
>basic political dispensation responsive to the need (land procurement , clearances ,minimal rentseeking etc)

I did note the growth differential between China and Brazil BUT it still does not square the circle for what he is talking about.

[Quote@1:30] .. In the next 5 years ... I think India is heading towards a MIDDLE income trap[/quote]

1. Middle income is about $10K to 12K and we are at ~2.2K. So if we become a Brazil in terms of growth rate than we will get trapped into a LOW income trap and NOT a middle income trap as this expert is opining.
2. Per him India will get into a middle income trap in about 5 years. 5Years! from $2.2K to $10K per capita? What growth rate does he expect for India for the next 5 years? By my calculation it will be ~35% p.a.

What is he smoking? Or is he farting just because someone thrust a mike in-front of him.

Atish · Post by **Atish** » 09 May 2019 22:18

He is talking about a demand slack. Its possible but the simple reason is:

1. Not enough trained manpower
2. Not enough jobs growth for said manpower.

It might be a good way to scare people into getting ready for difficult reforms - land and labor specifically.

Middle income trap does not make sense slower growth might happen due to lack of productive assets.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 May 2019 22:25

I didn't see that jhoot-you-b video until now so I wasn't aware of the context of the middle income trap discussion.

First things first - we're approaching lower middle income territory and are at minimum 1.5-2 decades away from the point where the trap is a consideration. Kind of like me standing in line at the ration shop for Rs.2/kg rice, while worrying about making the wrong decision about picking BMW vs Mercedes in future when richer. In short, impressively intellectual mast*r**tion .

Secondly, as described previously, the middle income trap usually befalls those who are dependent on a single economic paradigm to get there. Arbitraging low wages for export led growth in some industries, for example, without building a broad industry and services/consumer economy as well. This applies to several ASEAN entities stuck in the trap. Or depending too much on natural resources, e.g. Brazil.

One might ask, why not Australia or Canada who are also resource dependent ? They are outliers - far too little population to the volume of resources they have. A very rough measure of heavy industrial capability is steel output. Brazil, with 210 million people, is not a comparatively major steel producer - just 35MT. SoKo with 25% of the population and a fraction of the area, produces 2x as much steel, and Japan with 50% of the population produces 3x as much.

India, for all its failures at delivering basic public goods and services until recently, has a significant and diversified industrial base and technical manpower capable of doing more.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 May 2019 22:46

Poking some well timed holes into thugbandhan by openly stating the SaPa-INC activity:

ANI UP
‏
Verified account

@ANINewsUP
5h5 hours ago
More
PM Narendra Modi in Jaunpur: Behen Ji will understand the game that has been played to keep her outside Uttar Pradesh only after May 23. Behen Ji is now seeking votes for the people who had called Baba Saheb Ambedkar a land mafia and insulted him at every step.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 May 2019 22:55

hnair wrote:Ok, my biggest concern that I had since 2011, with Shree Modi still stands: He has put us in a single-point-failure Hemu situation and has done nothing to mitigate that.

Personally, I think we're looking at this at the wrong inflection point. To explain, first I'll characterize the leadership into generations:
First Gen: ABV, LKA, MMJ, Kalyan Singh...
Second Gen: Modi
Third Gen: Gadkari, Yogi, HBS, SSC, DF...

BJP's problem IMHO is not that there aren't enough 3rd gen candidates. There are. The problem is what the first gen did not do - they didn't produce enough strong 2nd gen leadership to mentor the 3rd gen. Arguably, even Modi is not the creation of BJP national leadership, he's effectively self made out of GJ politics.

I think it is a miracle of sorts that the Sangh and BJP found what is independent India's tallest national leader, out of its own cadre base, rather than dependent on its national political leadership to cultivate it, because the latter didn't do so. The problem with this is that it also implies that the national leadership doesn't have past history at cultivating the next gen, who are implicitly left to find their way to the top on their own.

That approach is not a reliable one. There needs to be a more credible leadership pipeline system in place. Ideally 2019 will return a sufficient majority that AS can focus on building that.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 May 2019 23:01

UP-Bihar, East India mostly need better roads and more density of good roads.
UP will have 1 full E-W expway once the purbanchal expway is done . ideally it needs another one and links between the two.
same for bihar and WB. all very densely populated areas.

western UP has a good network of roads due to NCR effect.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 09 May 2019 23:08

BJP's best bet is the state-leadership to central-leadership path which Modi himself followed. In that regard they need to come up with a plan to improve the profile of leaders like Himanta Sarma, Fadnavis and Chauhan outside their own states. (Chauhan also needs to work at retaking MP and Fadnavis needs to work on keeping MH to improve credibility). Yogi already has some pan Indian name recognition at least in North and Central India. Gadkari is an excellent administrator and the best man for the job when you need to build infrastructure. But I'm not sure if he is PM material. Not the kind of man who can energize people like Modi.

But they need to work on this now so that 5-10 years down the line these leaders are well and truly ready to take over from Modi. And this needs to be done regardless of how the current election goes for them.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 09 May 2019 23:26

Suraj wrote:
vinod wrote:Congress has now started the fight back on Virat

Senior Navy officer rejects PM Modi's claim, says 'Gandhi family on-board INS Viraat for official visit'
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... sit/415657

Retired Vice Admiral Vinod Pasricha claimed that Rajiv Gandhi and his family were present on-board INS Viraat as they were on an official visit. He also claimed that no other visitors accompanied them.
That is a 'fightback' ? It's clear that they've completely lost their marbles if they think that argument is a fightback.

"No, Rajiv didn't take his chacha-bhatija along on Virat using it as a water taxi"

Instead

"What Rajiv actually did was take his chacha-bhatija along on Virat during official duties"

The former is just misuse of resources. The latter is misuse of resources, dereliction of official duty, unauthorized presence of foreigners and other parties during an official activity, and more.

If they had enough sense they'd shut up instead of furiously digging graves and jumping in.

Actually, Modi might be in the wrong here. He accused Rajiv Gandhi of (1) bringing foreigners onboard INS Viraat and (2) using Viraat to service his family and (3) holidaying in Lakshwadeep at tax payer's expense with his kids and in-laws. The report below shreds all three accusations.

No Rajiv Gandhi 'party' on INS Viraat says ex-commander

If this is true, then even as a bhakt, I'm terribly disappointed in Modi.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 May 2019 23:28

Nikhil T wrote:Actually, Modi might be in the wrong here. He accused Rajiv Gandhi of (1) bringing foreigners onboard INS Viraat and (2) using Viraat to service his family and (3) holidaying in Lakshwadeep at tax payer's expense with his kids and in-laws. The report below shreds all three accusations.

No Rajiv Gandhi 'party' on INS Viraat says ex-commander

If this is true, then even as a bhakt, I'm terribly disappointed in Modi.

He said. She said.

negi · Post by **negi** » 09 May 2019 23:31

Wife and kid on official visit to Lakshadweep on board Virat is a picnic for all practical purposes , a ship that spent substantial time every year in refit going to Lakshadweep is like taking a tractor to buy grocery ; the commanding officer obviously has to save his face for doing housekeeping work with a war-fighting machine afteral what stories will he tell his kids and grandkids . Fck it even to this day people go to Lakshadweep because nearby Guj has no booze if someone is telling they had some important work there and needed a 45k tonne carrier with 1000+ men to drop PM for lighting a lamp or cutting a ribbon of some MRP rate liqour store there then sure they are doing great justice to those stripes. The commanding officer should have kept mum as they say a crow can pretend to be a koel only until the former keeps quiet.

Here https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/indi ... 2013-11-21 some people should just STFU

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 May 2019 23:44

Nikhil T wrote:Actually, Modi might be in the wrong here. He accused Rajiv Gandhi of (1) bringing foreigners onboard INS Viraat and (2) using Viraat to service his family and (3) holidaying in Lakshwadeep at tax payer's expense with his kids and in-laws. The report below shreds all three accusations.

No Rajiv Gandhi 'party' on INS Viraat says ex-commander

If this is true, then even as a bhakt, I'm terribly disappointed in Modi.

Do you seriously think the guy in charge, who likely signed off on the jaunt, turned a Nelsons eye to all the goings on, and was likely part and parcel of the entire charade, will suddenly turn around and admit that it was all illegal?

I have another story to tell. So a certain PSU had whirlybirds, which are available for the occasional "side trip". A certain group, lets just call them the fettucinis's, ended up using those whirly's like anything, claiming after a certain "season" was over, pieces of paper would be repaid to PSU and all would be well. But they weren't and our man in charge of whirly's was running around worried because all of a sudden nobody was willing to take the blame. This is the way things work in the Indian system, often without any file notation or everything noted very well and justified. Tomorrow, if the correct file notations appear and this man escapes, do you think he will ever admit anything untoward occurred, despite his troubles? Leave it to you to understand how the game is.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 09 May 2019 23:54

Suraj wrote: we're looking at this at the wrong inflection point. To explain, first I'll characterize the leadership into generations:
First Gen: ABV, LKA, MMJ, Kalyan Singh...
Second Gen: Modi
Third Gen: Gadkari, Yogi, HBS, SSC, DF...

BJP's problem IMHO is not that there aren't enough 3rd gen candidates. There are.

Respectfully disagree. Modi's potential was known well before 2002 (before he shot into national prominence) which is why the *very* elaborate plan to sabotage him for more than a decade. I cant imagine there is any other sitting Chief Minister where the Party in Power has actively worked *with* a foreign power (or lobbied them) to deny him a visa. That was almost a low point in our politics but also justifiably (in hindsight) explained the real threat they saw in him.

There is currently, no credible 3rd generation leader in BJP even close to Modi's stature (or potential), IMO. I would even say BJP current MP bench strength is weak.

Yogi will not work below MP. Gadkari has no mass appeal or personality. HBS, SSC, DF are not really in contention...all good administrators, not Pan India personalities.

We basically rely on Vishnu Avtaars to come in from time to time to rescue us.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 09 May 2019 23:56

Suraj wrote:
Nikhil T wrote:Actually, Modi might be in the wrong here. He accused Rajiv Gandhi of (1) bringing foreigners onboard INS Viraat and (2) using Viraat to service his family and (3) holidaying in Lakshwadeep at tax payer's expense with his kids and in-laws. The report below shreds all three accusations.

No Rajiv Gandhi 'party' on INS Viraat says ex-commander

If this is true, then even as a bhakt, I'm terribly disappointed in Modi.
He said. She said.

On today's Aar Paar show, Harinder Sikka, a retired Navy Lt. Commander and author of Calling Sehmat (the book on which the movie Raazi is based), calls Admiral Ram Das a liar and says he should be court-martialed for sinking the INS Kadmat in peaceful waters. He says Ram Das is an AAP member and is lying. According to him, between 1985 and 1987, RaGa Sr. used Indian Navy warships four times for his personal vacations in the Islands. He says check the ships' logs for confirmation. Pretty explosive stuff.

Watch from 26:00

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 10 May 2019 00:08

The compere above is such a complete dunce. Keeps interrupting Harinder Sikka. What a complete moron.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 10 May 2019 00:27

^ He is typical of the ubiquitous moderators on the debate shows on Indian channels. Arnab is no different. What I would like to see is for the audio of the individuals turned off completely when their time is done. Typically Congoons and their supporters keep shouting all the time trying to drown out whatever the BJP person is saying. The moderators only offer a token protest. It is a nautanki at best and yet sometimes there is a gem that you can dig out as in this particular show. This one definitely needs to be seen by everyone. You can bet from here on Sikka will have the hounds baying for his blood.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 May 2019 00:38

Manu wrote:Respectfully disagree. Modi's potential was known well before 2002 (before he shot into national prominence) which is why the *very* elaborate plan to sabotage him for more than a decade.

Maybe the perspective is different from other parts of the country, but not to me it wasn't apparent that Modi was the sort of astonishing leader he turned out to be, from a south Indian perspective. At least until 2012-13, I saw him as another SSC / Raman Singh guy - a diligent performer who was repeatedly winning state level elections (just as the other two did) . I respected him greatly for the work he was doing in GJ, but knew little more in terms of national level capability. His level of skill at oratory and ability to connect were entirely unknown quantities, though maybe to native Hindi speakers or to those from GJ or north India, it was far more obvious, but he didn't get much airtime back then.

Nevertheless, my argument stands - until about 2012-13 he was not a national figure. He wasn't groomed by national leadership. In fact it took a minor putsch to kick LKA upstairs to the margdarshak mandal to accomplish his elevation to PM candidature. I'd be fascinated to learn how this was accomplished, and by whom, because it's not clear it's an act of the BJP national leadership as much as the Sangh making it happen by impressing upon Advani to move out of the way.

Some people are gifted administrators, e.g. Gadkari, some are gifted networkers and backroom operators , e.g. AS and HBS. We don't necessarily need or want another Modi. Leaders like him come once a generation. A political succession plan dependent on magically identifying a succession of Dalai Lamas, so to speak, isn't a good one. We want a competent set of leaders because what Modi has done is set the groundwork for the next gen to not have to depend upon the people's ardent hopes to get the basics of living - something Modi worked hard to cover from ~40% population coverage to over 90% coverage almost across the board - but build upon that.

Until as recently as 2014, the rural poor were literally desperate, as data previously quoted shows. Very basic vikas items were only available to ~40-45% of them. Now they are not desperate as much as hopeful and aspirational. Compare that to 2004 when ABV advertized India Shining to people who not only hadn't seen vikas, but half of them were a long way from even getting past 'where do I find my next meal' ?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 May 2019 00:48

Modi was an unknown quantity to me too prior to him being thrown into the deep end with two huge crises in as many years - the Bhuj earthquake and Godhra train attack and riots. The vicious campaign of demonizing him after that was initially aimed at the NDA government at the center (and at clawing back INC's lost seats in GJ assembly). I certainly had no idea at the time that we were looking at a future PM. The very concept of a state level leader becoming PM was uncommon in India (I can only think of Deve Gowda earlier. PVN was CM way back in 1971 for a couple of years. Doesn't really count IMO).

Modi to his credit looked at the post-Godhra assault on him as an opportunity where a lesser man may have wilted. It was only when he won back to back in 2002 and 2007 that common people elsewhere started taking notice and believing he was perhaps destined for a role at the Center.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 May 2019 00:58

negi wrote:Wife and kid on official visit to Lakshadweep on board Virat is a picnic for all practical purposes , a ship that spent substantial time every year in refit going to Lakshadweep is like taking a tractor to buy grocery ; the commanding officer obviously has to save his face for doing housekeeping work with a war-fighting machine afteral what stories will he tell his kids and grandkids . Fck it even to this day people go to Lakshadweep because nearby Guj has no booze if someone is telling they had some important work there and needed a 45k tonne carrier with 1000+ men to drop PM for lighting a lamp or cutting a ribbon of some MRP rate liqour store there then sure they are doing great justice to those stripes. The commanding officer should have kept mum as they say a crow can pretend to be a koel only until the former keeps quiet.

Here https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/indi ... 2013-11-21 some people should just STFU

Commander VK Jaitly @vkjaitly

Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi used INS Viraat for travel to celebrate their holidays at Bangaram island. Indian Navy resources were used extensively. I am a witness. I was posted on INS Viraat that time. Commander VK Jaitly

10:52 pm - 8 May 2019

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 10 May 2019 01:01

List of revellers on the INS Viraat holiday trip of #BhrastachariNo1 Rajiv Gandhi.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 May 2019 01:02

chetak wrote:
Commander VK Jaitly @vkjaitly

Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi used INS Viraat for travel to celebrate their holidays at Bangaram island. Indian Navy resources were used extensively. I am a witness. I was posted on INS Viraat that time. Commander VK Jaitly

10:52 pm - 8 May 2019

This whole thing is going to go down in Indian political history as a classic moment when a ruling family was stripped down publicly.

Primus and others, would you have access to the 1990 kar sevak video ? It needs to be on SM soon. Not only does it get practically no visibility, but (speaking gratuitously) very few people even know it happened . A Tiananmen Square moment like that , that happened in India, needs widespread knowledge and visibility.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 10 May 2019 01:14

king making of the nationalist kind is tricky.

Let's say you have groomed 5. you have to then pick one and also make sure the others don't play spoiler .. give them something gainful to do.

You also need to have a tacit agreement to switch and synchronize your support at the last stage. For an Indian leader it's important that this switching happens only at the last stage. Otherwise sabotage from lutyens and foreign supporters can nip things in the bud.

In the US this process has become more ritualized through the primaries a strenuous affair.

With Modi the BJP managed to somehow do the needful and rallied behind a single man. So first you have a leader who is an anomaly a workaholic sanyasi who has the charisma and timing of stand up comic and then a behaviour from BJP from that is completely alien to the Indian political system.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 10 May 2019 01:27

Are we discussing the succesors to Modi in 2024 and beyond in this thread now ?

With 2019 hardly in the bag we are discussing the PM candidates in 2024? wah !

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 May 2019 01:29

This thread is a full service menu. Covers everything from Jeep scandal in 1940s to middle income traps in 2040s.

khatvaanga · Post by **khatvaanga** » 10 May 2019 01:36

Lilo wrote:Are we discussing the succesors to Modi in 2024 and beyond in this thread now ?
With 2019 hardly in the bag we are discussing the PM candidates in 2024? wah !

never too early to start. like enrolling yet-to-be-born kid in IITJEE coaching.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 10 May 2019 01:38

One of the Navy guys even says, for Navy guys marrying a foreigner means charges. But this guy married a foreigner and gave her and others the run of our ships, we were seething.

This is really an acid comment which will irritate the Congoons right where it matters. Its just typifies the difference in rules and regulations between the hoi polloi in Govt jobs, and the privilege enjoyed by the 1st family. A valid concern IMHO.

khatvaanga · Post by **khatvaanga** » 10 May 2019 01:39

nachiket wrote:Modi was an unknown quantity to me too....

only reason i heard about him was because he was instrumental in LKAs Rath Yatra. Was known as an excellent organizer who thought about eveyrthing.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 May 2019 01:40

twitter

Why is @IndianExpress totally silent on its own detailed report of Jan 23, 1988 on #INSViraat "performing various duties in connection with the holiday" while Naval personnel "looked after the needs" of the group that included 8 foreigners?

Or does it believe this was fake news?

The rest of the detailed report by @IndianExpress on the Gandhi family's Lakshadweep holiday, in the year the Bofors scandal broke.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 10 May 2019 01:43

^^ All this when people were eating mud in Indian states due to starvation.

R_Kumar · Post by **R_Kumar** » 10 May 2019 01:43

Somehow I feel, Modi's successor will also be a man/woman who doesn't have any family obligation. This is not a must but I guess it does help to suppress any Dhritrasstra kinda urge to put family before the nation.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 May 2019 01:43

twitter

Unbelievable, how well laid-out this Rajiv Gandhi trap was.

Delhi votes: May 12
Punjab votes: May 19
Bhopal votes: May 12

And Congress walked right into it. Hook. Line. Sinker.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 10 May 2019 01:50

Suraj wrote:This thread is a full service menu. Covers everything from Jeep scandal in 1940s to middle income traps in 2040s.

Suraj san,
No it is not a full service menu thread.
This is the GE 2019 thread.Anything related to politics concerning 2019 outcome is kosher.
Jeep scandal in the 1940's, Viraat trips, edwina mountbatten's burial at sea escorted by Indian frigate, the threat of an impending slow down due to poor governance aka threat of a "middle income trap" etc all help people remember the alternatives to the NDA.
What do i know... but in contrast the discussions on who is going to be PM in 2024 is quite OT.

Regarding "middle income trap" Dont get tied down by sublantics like others.
Threat of a Middleincome trap(what is middle income for India hain ji?) is not the only point of the rNDTV video - the point of the video is what needs to be done ?
Politically who to choose in 2019 and policy wise how to steer the economy away from pitfalls.
Just because the definition of the problem has some undefined aspects doesnt mean that there is no problem & the solution has no relevance ... after all in the conception "Middle income trap".Trap is also as important as definition of middle income.

Trap is any sustained period of economic rut & that still is a easy possibility for indian economy if a weak congie or more probably a weak BJP govt comes to power , policy regression will withdraw govt support to key future reforms concerning land labor etc.Had UPA3 happened in 2014 we may be already in the midst of one digging deeper.

The need of the hour is a strong mandate for Modi.
You want an overhaul of Judiciary & finally get Indian economy out of abysmally low capacity for "contract enforcement"?
Answer is more simple elect Modi with 2/3rd majority so that he may impeach a few recalcitrant judges of SC & repromulgate NJAC bill reforming Judiciary.

Just because the video came in rNDTV doesnt mean its a red flag to be charged at. The video is directly making the point that if another profligate malaikhor sarkar with poor governance capacity stepsforth like an UPA3 with its aNYAY schemes & rentseeking it is going to be a disaster.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 10 May 2019 01:59

Actually, Lilo, I was only building upon hnair's somewhat insightful comment, that in Modi we have a Hemu like situation (with which I agree). Not worrying about his successor at all.

It is also a learning for me (from Suraj's post) that Modi became prominent in S India only in 2012-13. He was much bigger than that in N & W India much before that.

For example, his visa was denied in 2005: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 055543.cms. He was the only person to suffer this indignity on the recommendations of the Commission on International Religious Freedom formed under the aegis of the International Religious Freedom Act,the only person denied a US visa under this law.

The amount of propaganda against him then ("international" news outlets are still more or less against him, uniformly) was unimaginably shrill. Many prominent US figures like Martha Nussbaum, Maleneine Albright (both Jewish, ironically) went after him. Many Resident Non Indians and NRI Groups used to campaign against him 24X7.

Incidentally, I joined BR right around this time when propaganda against BJP/Modi was at its peak and this used to be thoroughly discussed at the time.