2019 General Elections News and Discussion

[kit]

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/trying ... 708413.cms

So who is the real RG

[Raveen]

Where else can so many Bangladeshis see the Indian PM?

Not even in Dhaka

[Manish_Sharma]

I had predicted in 2014, BJP=320
NDA=350
Actual result was
BJP=282
NDA=320
==============
I talk to people, Hindus and Sikhs mostly and I feel Citizens are ready to fulfill my 2014 prediction numbers.

BUT BUT BUT

LOWER LEVEL OF BJP AND RSS AREN'T HALF AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS 2014, I just can't crack WHY Burntout-OR-Overconfident-OR-miffed.

PLEASE tweet to Amit Shah and Modi

[chetak]

This will certainly impact the commies very adversely in KER and further hit their already weak numbers of LS seats

Apart from the undoubted political fall out, the deliberate opening of the dams is also a security issue, after all, about 400 people died in this callously man made disaster.

criminal cases should be filed forthwith against those responsible.


Kerala Floods: Amicus curae tells HC poor dam management aggravated disaster, recommends judicial probe

Kerala Floods: Amicus curae tells HC poor dam management aggravated disaster, recommends judicial probe

Apr 03, 2019

Thiruvananthapuram: In a setback to the Kerala government, a High Court-appointed amicus curiae has pointed out that lapses in dam management had aggravated the impact of August floods which had claimed over 400 lives besides causing widespread devastation last year.

It has also recommended that an inquiry be conducted by an expert committee headed by a former Supreme Court judge.

The opposition Congress and BJP held the CPI(M)-led LDF government responsible for the loss of life and destruction and demanded the resignation of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.


In the 49-page-report, amicus curiae (friend of the court), Jacob P Alex, stated that none of the 79 dams in the southern state were operated or used for the purpose of flood control or moderation, as per the stipulations under the National Water Policy, National Disaster Management Authority guidelines on floods and similar directives.

The report, submitted to the High Court and accessed by PTI, also recommended a detailed enquiry into the floods by an independent expert committee headed by a former Supreme Court judge and a hydrologist, dam management experts and engineers as members.

The amicus curiae was appointed by the court based on a slew of petitions including the one submitted by 'metro-man' E Sreedharan, also the president of the Foundation for Restoration of National Values, alleging that the devastating floods was a man-made disaster.

According to the report, dams in the state had not maintained effective Flood Control Zone and the Flood Cushion, said to have been maintained, was not as mandated by the BIS report, RTIOR and Q&M Manuel.

Most of the major reservoirs were almost full before the heavy rainfall that occurred on 14 to 16 August, 2018 and they did not have the capacity to accommodate the additional flow generated by extreme rainfall, it said. "Sudden release of water simultaneously from different reservoirs, during extreme rainfall aggravated the damage,"it said adding that various alerts - blue, orange and red - had been issued not in accordance with the EAP guideline.

"No proper follow-up action and effective precautionary steps (especially for evacuating people and accommodating them in safe location) were taken after issuance of Red Alert," it said.

None of the dams in the state had updated Rule Curves based on which the same were operated during the floods, it said.

The report also pointed out that the dam managers ought not to have 'solely' relied on IMD predictions for dam management and variation in the forecast or prediction cannot be counted as a justification for delayed release of water from dams.

It also suggested that the proposed enquiry panel be directed by the court to investigate various aspects including the causes of the August floods and the factors that had led to or aggravated the damage, whether the high reservoir storage and sudden release of water had worsened the deluge and so on.

Meanwhile, State Power Minister, MM Mani Tuesday evaded questions when journalists sought his reaction on the report. A visibly angry Mani told reporters: "I have nothing to say on this.. you clear out from here... If I ask you people to go out, you should get out from here."

Leader of Opposition in the assembly, Ramesh Chennithala said the LDF government was responsible for the deluge.

"We had said that the releasing of dam water, without taking any precautionary measures, was the cause of the floods. Our allegations have now proved to be true with the amicus curiae report. Chief Minsiter Pinrayi Vijayan should answer for the life which had been lost and property destroyed", he said. There was grave lapse in the management of dams by the government, the leader added.

BJP state president, PS Sreedharan Pillai demanded the resignation of Vijayan in the wake of the adverse report. "The left government cannot hide away from the responsibility of the worst ever flood which had hit the state. Murder charges should be slapped against the Chief Minister, power minister and the concerned officials," he said.

According to the amicus curiae report, the August floods had claimed 433 human lives, affected 5.4 million people and displaced 1.4 million.

The total loss incurred by the state was to the tune of Rs 26,720 crore and the total recovery needs are estimated at 31,000 crore, it added.

[chetak]

This and other exposes like this was always hidden and waiting in the wings to skewer the family very close to the elections and this will hopefully be the sentiment carried by the voters to the polling booth on polling day.

Many more such exposes will surface in the forthcoming days.



Chowkidar has caught a chor: Union Minister Arun Jaitley writes on OpIndia story exposing Rahul’s deals with scam accused FTIL, Unitech

Chowkidar has caught a chor: Union Minister Arun Jaitley writes on OpIndia story exposing Rahul’s deals with scam accused FTIL, Unitech



Here is a man who makes reckless allegations without any basis. It was no rocket science for him to know who were conferring him with largesse, wrote Arun Jaitley

OPINDIA STAFF
APRIL 3, 2019

On 22nd March 2019, OpIndia had exposed Rahul Gandhi business dealings with scam accused FTIL and Unitech. OpIndia had raised several questions about why Rahul Gandhi was dealing with such scam accused when the Congress government was in the process of investigating these parties. FTIL was involved in the NSEL scam and Unitech, in the 2G scam. Union Minister Arun Jaitley took to Facebook to write a blog post on the OpIndia expose and raised questions on Congress President Rahul Gandhi. The OpIndia expose can be read here in full.

The blog is reproduced below:

How do parties and politicians fund themselves? Indian political parties were traditionally funded with cash i.e. black money. Many have now tried to get tax paid money due to the legislative changes and have started accepting donations either by cheque or through electoral bonds.

That, however, still does not fully answer the question. How many politicians lead a comfortable life without having any apparent and declared source of income? The Nehru-Gandhi family has been described by its supporters as India’s first family. It, therefore, should be a role model. Pt. Motilal Nehru gave up his law practice 98 years ago. Pt. Jawahar Lal Nehru was a tall political leader who was never a practising lawyer nor was Indiraji ever involved in any professional or business activity. The late Shri Rajiv Gandhi was an Indian Airlines pilot for a brief period and, thereafter, he was in full-time politics. On the basis of the available information, neither Smt. Sonia Gandhi nor Rahul Gandhi have ever worked for a living.

For generations, the family did not earn from any commercial ventures. They were in public service. Most people in public life sacrifice their commercial careers and lead a frugal life. Most members of the Nehru-Gandhi family studied outside the country for the last four generations. Not many of them excelled in scholarship, with Panditji as an exception. All have led to more than a comfortable life. They enjoyed vacations at multiple domestic and international locations.

The expose

An expose by media organisations revealed that the family owned a farmhouse in South Delhi which is now owned by the brother and sister of the current generation of the family. Periodically tenancies are created in favour of persons many of whom needed help when UPA was in power. A capital creation programme was launched. Rentals are paid by obliging tenants in advance. It is unlikely that the tenants ever needed to live in Delhi because they have had no business operation in Delhi. Not only did they pay large quantum of rentals as advance through make-believe tenancies, they also apparently paid for a large number of employees who managed the estate. The amount collected from these tenants through advance rentals and subsequently, the tenancies enabled the creation of the capital. Several crores of this capital thus created was invested with the real estate company under cloud and which, like the tenants, entered into a ‘sweetheart deal’ that from the moment the proposed buyer paid the advance towards the real estate to be purchased, one was paid back annually under an ‘assured income programme’. He thus got back a large part of his investment and the real estate.

Amongst the names of the tenants, the critical person is Jignesh Shah of FTIL and the real estate developer is M/s. Unitech builder through Sanjay Chandra. Who else would enter into such a ‘sweetheart deals’ except the ‘fly-by-night’ operators who needed State patronage?

Compromise of public interest through such questionable deals

Besides the reasonable apprehensions of the tenancies being an investment of ‘political equity’ by those entering into the ‘sweetheart deals’, what happened to Jignesh Shah? He had two companies – one with the large quantum of assets and the other which had ostensibly duped lakhs of investors. The investors were insisting that the Central Government amalgamate two companies and thus out of the amalgamated assets, the duped investors be paid. Till 2014, the UPA Government did not take any action. The investment of political equity have brought returns. It is only when the NDA Government under Shri Narendra Modi was formed that the Department of Company Affairs passed the amalgamation order which has been upheld by the Mumbai High Court and is now pending challenge in appeal before the Supreme Court. If the Government succeeds, the duped investors will get their investment back. You needed a ‘Chowkidar’ to catch a ‘Chor. ’With regard to Unitech, the less said the better. Besides the 2G involvement at the time the favours were shown, many flat buyers had been duped, their monies siphoned off and the banks were not paid back. The promoters, including one with whom Rahul Gandhi signed the arrangement, is still in prison. Under the ‘sweetheart deal’ out of the instalments paid, most have been repaid back under the ‘assured income scheme.’ Capital creation through ‘sweetheart deals’ is exactly what Rahul’s brother-in-law did.

Here is a man who makes reckless allegations without any basis. It was no rocket science for him to know who was conferring him with largesse. He aspires to be a Prime Minister. Such aspirants like Caesar’s wife must be beyond suspicion. They must be unsuspectable. With tainted hands, he must at least remember that ‘people in glass houses do not throw stones.’ The ‘Chowkidar’ has finally caught a ‘Chor.’

[Rahul M]

Kanchan Gupta
‏Verified account @KanchanGupta
2h2 hours ago

Unprecedented turnout for Modi rallies in Siliguri and Kolkata. I could be wrong, but no other BJP rally ever has seen such massive turnout plus enthusiastic crowds. Calcutta surprised more than Siliguri. Something is happening. #LoksabhaElections2019

Tui shala bheeshon optimist .

I haven't actually commented. However in retort I will add that Bjp should move into double figures this time. To what extent depends on ground game.

[vimal]

Where else can so many Bangladeshis see the Indian PM?

UBji politics can be funny.

As far as crowds are concerned, I remember Bihar also saw massive crowds but the results weren't commensurate for BJP.
A united thag-bandhan is very hard to beat in a first past the post system.

One thing that has always nagged me is that while Modi might be the real driver of infrastructure like housing and electricity, how many rural/poor folks really know that or care about it.

If i'm poor i would care about handout rather than good highway which I probably will never use. I most likely don't even own a vehicle.
This where all the development and India Shining type of sloganeering scares me as urban/nri/IT types folks have different mindset on the voting day compared to poor majority.

[SPattath]

BUT BUT BUT

LOWER LEVEL OF BJP AND RSS AREN'T HALF AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS 2014, I just can't crack WHY Burntout-OR-Overconfident-OR-miffed.

PLEASE tweet to Amit Shah and Modi

Not true,the amount of enthusiasm among Sangh cadre is more than BJP.This is seen as battle of civilization. Iam one of them and have been slogging the past 1 month.

[chetak]

https://youtu.be/9pfmzL1IH0Q

“The people and the BJP party will keep a telescopic view on the nomination filed by the Congress President Rahul Gandhi as his income has constantly increased since 2004. Rahul Gandhi has increased his assets using four different ways, first through HL Pahwa, secondly through his farmhouse, third with the help of 2G scam accused Unitech and lastly Rahul Gandhi using a London based firm to increase his assets,” said Sambit Patra.

Sambit Patra further accused that Rahul Gandhi has increased his assets from profiteering from scams, dubious land deals, links with arms dealers and hiding facts from election affidavits. Rahul Gandhi is not a professional, the only way Rahul Gandhi earns is through the salary that he draws as a Member of Parliament, said Patra while questioning Rahul Gandhi on his the source of income.

Patra also mentioned that Rahul Gandhi had escaped incomes of Rs. 155 crores through AJL for which, the IT department had slapped Rs. 100 crores tax notice on Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi.

Sambit Patra added the Rahul Gandhi had dubious deals with HL Pahwa and purchased the land at a measly price of Rs. 26,47,000. He mentioned that the land purchase was mentioned in his election affidavit of 2009, while HL Pahwa himself has several dubious connections. OpIndia had broken the story of Rahul Gandhi’s dubious land deal with HL Pahwa, the saga of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Robert Vadra purchasing land for Pahwa and then selling it back to him at an inflated price, and Rahul’s links to arms dealer Sanjay Bhandari.

Patra said that the second source of income was from Gandhi Parivar’s links to FTIL, a company that was at the heart of the NSEL scam. “Gandhi Parivar is the only parivar in the country which does not do anything but earns several crores of money,” alleged Patra.

The OpIndia report had mentioned about irregularities in renting out this farmhouse to NSEL scam accused Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. (FTIL), which had paid an interest-free deposit of Rs 40.20 lakh vide two separate cheques of Rs 20.10 lakh each respectively to Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.

Sambit Patra went on to accuse Rahul Gandhi of suspicious possession of two commercial properties in October 2010, one worth Rs. 1.44 crores and the other Rs. 5.36 crores, owned by 2G scam accused company Unitech.

Patra mentioned exact allegations reported by OpIndia and mentioned that Rahul Gandhi had bought a property worth 7 crores but had only made an advance payment of a little over 4 crores while also receiving interest income during Financial Year 2010-11 to Financial Year 2014-15 on the deposit with Unitech Ltd.

“In an affidavit filed for the Lok Sabha Elections in 2004, Rahul Gandhi mentions a property he owned of Backops Limited and three of its European accounts, two of which were with HSBC-UK. The firm was reportedly dissolved in 2009,” added Patra.

Patra also mentioned OpIndia report stating, “According to the affidavit, the Congress President also owned 83% in Backops Services. It was registered at the Registrar of Companies, New Delhi. According to a Data Services website, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Rahul’s sister, was one of the directors in the firm. The firm last filed its balance sheet on the 31st of March, 2010. Intriguingly, although the firm is mentioned in his 2004 affidavit, it doesn’t find any mention in his 2009 election affidavit. Therefore, the question arises, what happened to the 83% stake that Rahul Gandhi had in the firm?”

The BJP party further said that Rahul Gandhi and Robert Vadra are synonyms as both operate with same operanda of dubious land deals, lies in election affidavits. Robert Vadra has learnt this art from Congress President Rahul Gandhi itself, accused the BJP.

[UlanBatori]

BUT BUT BUT

LOWER LEVEL OF BJP AND RSS AREN'T HALF AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS 2014, I just can't crack WHY Burntout-OR-Overconfident-OR-miffed.

PLEASE tweet to Amit Shah and Modi

Thanks Manishji. Most cannot even name half the schemes that the NaMo govt has brought out with such revolutionary impact. IS there a "let's go door-to-door" zeal?

[atamjeetsingh]

It may just be impossible to figure out what the voter wants. Every political party from BJP to Congress to SP/BSP has failed at figuring it out in recent times.[/quote]

I want to take a shot at it. As a political observer since as teenager. Recent or current issues causes the maximum effect on election day. For eg onion price shoot up during 1998 caused the loss of BJP government in Delhi. Hafed was controlled by Congress those days and they compunded the effect by delaying onion shipment to Delhi. Mango adami was so pissed off even though Congress was disorganized but still scored a win.
Now coming to my home state Haryana, few months back BJP graph was down. But 2 things happened which has created the Modi wave. There were job openings for Grade 4 in Haryana for around 18000 posts.Application were accepted online only and exams were held. Based on exam results merit list was prepared and applicants recieved job letters in first week of feb. No rishwat no approach those who cleared exam fair and square got the job. This put an image of corruption free govt. Then on 14th Feb Pulawama occurred, Anger was too high as there are lot of Haryana sons who are in defense services. Swift action of Balakot strikes created a Modi wave in Haryana as people can now see a decisive leader. At this moment BJP may win 8-9 seats out of 10 in Haryana.

[vijayk]

Can anyone see this video? not accessible in US

https://twitter.com/CNNnews18/status/11 ... 1689418752

[Rudradev]

Remember 2004. (I remember it well, staring at the BRF thread in disbelief as results came in).

Multiple Exit Polls (AajTak/ORG-MARG, NDTV/AC-Nielsen, Zee-TV/Taleem, Star-News/C-Voter) ALL predicted an average of 255 seats for NDA, 183 seats for INC, and 105 seats for "Others".

Actual results: 187 seats for NDA (-68 !!), 219 Seats for INC (+36), 137 seats for Others (+32)

This was after 6 years of good governance, economic development, nuclear tests, Kargil victory vs. Pakistan. Yes, there were drawbacks like the Musharraf/Agra breakfast debacle (2001) and the IC814 hijacking (1999) but (a) these matters most seriously affected only those voters focused on a national-security perspective, who weren't pro-INC or pro-Left anyway; and (b) they occurred quite some time before 2004, allowing years for them to subside in public memory relative to overall perception of the ABV govt's performance. As such the good reasons to expect re-election far outweighed the bad, more so than with any govt since PVNR at least.

Not trying to cut-and-paste a Vajpayee re-election situation on to a (hopefully very different) Modi-era environment. But posted as a warning about how massively (and unanimously) wrong psephologists have been in the past, especially because of the tendency to groupthink and embrace of "conventional wisdom" that drives the massaging of raw data.

[kit]

I had predicted in 2014, BJP=320
NDA=350
Actual result was
BJP=282
NDA=320
==============
I talk to people, Hindus and Sikhs mostly and I feel Citizens are ready to fulfill my 2014 prediction numbers.

BUT BUT BUT

LOWER LEVEL OF BJP AND RSS AREN'T HALF AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS 2014, I just can't crack WHY Burntout-OR-Overconfident-OR-miffed.

PLEASE tweet to Amit Shah and Modi

They need inspiration !!.. they are looking for it..its just a human thing.. remember those old days of war when the generals inspirational speeches.. if India needs one this is the time ..Make India great again !

[V_Raman]

RSS wants majoritarian polity. Cadre will be enthused if the current dispensation has swayed too far away from it. This happened in 2014. BJP government came in, fixed the mess and advanced the majoritarian polity agenda 3 steps forward. But this may not result in votes. The new dispensation might move it 2 steps back. But there is net gain. The day the new dispensation moves it more than the 3 steps back, we will see chaos. Till then this flip flop might continue. If NaMo pulls off victory despite this, he is the yug purush we all are hoping for.

[vijayk]

what is general thinking on INC manifesto?

Looks like a cross between Naxals/Islamists/EJs/COMMIES ...

RG might have a strategy.

[chetak]

Can anyone see this video? not accessible in US

https://twitter.com/CNNnews18/status/11 ... 1689418752

use a browser that comes with a free vpn.

[chetak]

what is general thinking on INC manifesto?

Looks like a cross between Naxals/Islamists/EJs/COMMIES ...

RG might have a strategy.

something is off.

he is pointedly appeasing every rabid BIF group out there.

[Suraj]

The comments on how developmental improvements take time to percolate to the mango man and for them to vote the government again in elections, and corresponding stories of the 2004 election are interesting. Here's my take - not so focused on the politics but the economics:

In 2004, very little of the developmental changes implemented by NDA 1 had time to reach the masses. NHDP was still implementing the first phase of Golden Quadrilateral. The NSEW part didn't exist. The 11th Finance Commission proposals leading to greater devolution of finances to states, had just come into force. 2000-01 and 2001-02 were rainfall deficit years with weak growth. 2003-04 was a bumper monsoon year.

Laloo is sort of correct that the existence of roads itself doesn't help the poor. Their economic integration is a multi-dimensional index, to appropriate a term used in the extreme poverty index above (first quoted in the economy thread).

The top down changes easily visible to the middle class, e.g. improved bijlee sadak paani , take longer to get to the poor and extreme poor. They live a life of uncertainty hard to fathom. Consider: lack of access to education, clean water, adequate food, one significant illness away from sliding back to destitution, essentially no access to credit to do business, no access to formal banking.

2004 was no surprise if you look at this - "aam admi ko kya hua" works very well as a retort to a list of top down accomplishments that haven't yet reached the poor and extreme poor, but are visible around them. Fast forward to 2019, and there's a substantial difference:
* access to clean fuel is not a national issue anymore
* access to electricity is now in every single village
* There are 352 million PMJDY accounts and 270 million RuPay cards in use for DBT.
* Women outnumber men in total PMJDY account holders - 54% of the accounts are held by women though they comprise 48.5% of population
* MUDRA scheme affords access to formal credit on a scale never previously achieved. 2016-17: 35 million loans totalling Rs.132K crore (~$19 billion). 2018-19: 55 million loans totalling Rs.274K crore (~$40 billion), or about Rs.50K per loan last fiscal year, up from Rs.37K per loan first year.
* PMFBY crop insurance is operating well.

Insures have settled 100% of the claims for the summer crops of both 2016 and 2017 and 96% for the 2016 rabi (winter) season, as per official data reviewed by FE.

* Ayushman Bharat implementation and utlization has grown rapidly despite being just 6 months old. By Nov 2018, 1 lakh people had used it. In the first 100 days, the number reached 6.85 lakh. In the first 6 months, 18 lakh people have used it.
* From achievements thread, the PMGSY program has dramatically improved rural connectivity between 2014 and 2019.

Code: Select all

Year Length constructed Rate of construction per day (km)
2011-12 30994.50 85
2012-13 24161.29 66
2013-14 25316.40 69
2014-15 36336.81 100
2015-16 36449.36 100
2016-17 47447.00 130
2017-18 48750.66 134

None of this makes the news much at all because it is a collection of initiatives targeting the poor and extreme poor. There's little in it for the middle class. The improvement in urban physical infrastructure and quality of life isn't very significant compared to 5 years ago, relative to the extent to which the rural poor have access to food, fuel, electricity, credit, health and crop insurance compared to what they had 5 years ago.

None of this makes the news much at all. It's not newsworthy, and there are vested interests who desire that it not be reported. However, lack of reporting cannot undo the scope of changes. The same way lack of reporting did not mean that the poor were getting the fruits of development in 2004.

In 2019, rural India is not primarily agriculture based. Agriculture stopped contributing to the majority of Indian GDP decades ago. In the mid 2010s, agriculture was no longest the largest contributor to rural GDP - services were. In other words, the majority of rural economy is NOT agriculture but services driven. The last remaining bastion is the workforce participation - until very recently, the largest share of rural workforce was engaged in agriculture, but (I don't yet have data) that's apparently no longer the case, or close to it - the majority of rural inhabitants do not work in agriculture, but in services and industry.

These people want access to food, fuel, electricity, insurance & healthcare, and banking and credit. The gains in the last 5 years benefit them in many ways.

Now to the question of demonetization - one of the main quoted negatives. It's true that the rural economy was primarily cash based. But there's more to that - it was primary informal banking, using cash from money lenders. Demonetization among other things enabled the government to step in as a reliable alternative (MUDRA scheme was announced not long before DeMo, and PMJDY was among the earliest announcements of the government).

Another vector: population profile and dependency ratio. Here's the population pyramid in 2003. And here's the pyramid in 2019. The dependency ratio - the number of old and young dependents per working age adult , is down to ~1.0 . In other words, people are no longer primarily engaged in supporting dependents - they are engaged in their own development. Indian TFR is down AN ENTIRE PERSON, from 3.35 per woman in 2003, to 2.2 per woman in 2017. We are already at the replacement rate of growth, i.e. TFR of 2.1 , and still falling.

What do I think will happen in the election ? I don't know. But what's been done in the past 5 years, and corresponding socio-economic changes that matter, I've summarized above.

[UlanBatori]

Suraj: These data (if true...) are absolutely stunning.

Let's see: In 2019, rural India is not primarily agriculture based. In the mid 2010s, agriculture was no longest the largest contributor to rural GDP - services were.
Agriculture stopped contributing to the majority of Indian GDP decades ago.
(This last part I agree.. but it is a problem not an achievement. Agriculture doesn't pay. A DOO gets 10 or 20 times the pay per hour that a subsistence farmer gets.)
In other words, the majority of rural economy is NOT agriculture but services driven.
I do not see that The GDP is driven by services & manufacturing, but that does not happen in the rural areas that are dependent on agriculture.

The last remaining bastion is the workforce participation - until very recently, the largest share of rural workforce was engaged in agriculture, but (I don't yet have data) that's apparently no longer the case, or close to it - the majority of rural inhabitants do not work in agriculture, but in services and industry.

THIS would be truly revolutionary, but I wonder what they are doing instead. This is the key question to me. Inside 5 years? Most recent research papers I have seen say that non-agricultural employment in rural India was practically non-existent.

So when such results are reported, the sane researchers says decimal point in wrong place, hain?

I am not aware (of course I live in Mongolia where we are not aware of much..) of any terrific energetic activity in rural India in the past 5 years setting up non-agricultural employment - except driving carts to take people away to the overcrowded cities in search of food.

SEVENTY PERCENT of Indians transformed from dirt-poor seasonal farm laborers to suave city slickers in 5 years? (of course I exaggerate the transformation) But there has been not a peep of any such change. The greatest unreported story in human history?

Had this occurred, would you not have seen a very sharp spike in the price of agricultural products?

These people want access to food, fuel, electricity, insurance & healthcare, and banking and credit. The gains in the last 5 years benefit them in many ways.
True, but do they really have disposable income? Or any income? Or have the traditional people fallen off the charts with only the "modern services" people being counted at all?

As for "every village has electricity", one should look carefully at the criteria for that. The govt. criterion is "one wires goes through village".
Does any power come through it? How many seconds per day? India simply does not have enough power generation except for political hot air. How did India overnight become able to supply every village?

These are the sorts of "India Shining" things that can make a villager go out and vote. For RaGa, the Saviour.
Will be talking to the Consul-Jarnail of India tomorrow. Will ask whether we are now talking about a suave First World Superpower.

[nachiket]

These people want access to food, fuel, electricity, insurance & healthcare, and banking and credit. The gains in the last 5 years benefit them in many ways.
True, but do they really have disposable income? Or any income? Or have the traditional people fallen off the charts with only the "modern services" people being counted at all?

Having disposable income is not a necessary condition for using schemes like Crop insurance, Ujwala, DBT, Ayushman Bharat and MUDRA loans. In fact availing these schemes can actually increase their disposable incomes.

[Suraj]

I do not see that The GDP is driven by services & manufacturing, but that does not happen in the rural areas that are dependent on agriculture.

What I quoted is aggregate rural GDP. Until approximately ~2015, the largest share of rural GDP was agriculture, followed by services and manufacturing. This is no longer true, and has not been for a few years now - services are the largest sector of rural GDP, even though the largest share of rural workforce was still engaged in agriculture for a much longer time.

This is simply a reflection of the fact that rural services sector grows much faster than the agriculture sector. There's data on this in the economy thread, but it's from a few years ago and hard to find immediately. However I remember it because I'm the one who found and posted it.

THIS would be truly revolutionary, but I wonder what they are doing instead. This is the key question to me. Inside 5 years? Most recent research papers I have seen say that non-agricultural employment in rural India was practically non-existent.

Feel free to quote the papers Here's something I can present: NITI Aayog report on rural economy and workforce. This is a 2017 paper with a lot of data only up to 2012. However, even back then, the trend was evident. Table 3.2 shows that in 2004-05, 72.6% of rural workforce was in agriculture. In 2011-12, the number is down to 64.1% . With services growth accelerating, the extrapolation is that my earlier statement is more or less correct - as of 2019, the share of rural workforce in agriculture is at or below 50% , an enormous drop from 73% at the end of NDA1.

True, but do they really have disposable income? Or any income? Or have the traditional people fallen off the charts with only the "modern services" people being counted at all?

India’s consumption story, Oct 2018 news

The economy is now set to be driven by rural demand due to rising income levels, changing lifestyle, habits, taste, increasing literacy level and increasing expectations of rural consumers.

FMCG’s urban segment, which contributes 55 per cent of revenues, is expected to post a steady revenue growth at 8 per cent CAGR in the near term, while the rural segment is expected to grow at mid-to-high teens on the back of good monsoon, GST implementation, improving infrastructureNSE -3.88 %, distribution channels and reach of manufacturing and FMCG companies.

Thus, the rural segment is expected to grow at double pace compared to the urban segment.

In other words, rural consumption growth is running at 15-17% per annum, 2x urban consumption growth. At that differential, we are two years away from rural India being a bigger consumer market than urban India, by revenue.

A LOT of things are very different in 2019 vs 2004. The primary differentiator is that there's been enormous delivery of primary goods and services on the low/medium end of the Maslow scale, to rural India. Most of this doesn't show up in the news because urban India doesn't see it. It's also mostly not evident in Malloostan, which is a 'special case' (I am from there too onlee).

Are there pockets of distress. Sure, probably plenty. It's a vast country. We have had two successive weak monsoons between 2015-17 or so. However, the delivery of means to obtain clean fuel, food, transport, electricity, healthcare and insurance, banking and credit, have all changed substantially since 2014, and essentially far removed from the situation in 2004.

As for "every village has electricity", one should look carefully at the criteria for that. The govt. criterion is "one wires goes through village".
Does any power come through it? How many seconds per day? India simply does not have enough power generation except for political hot air. How did India overnight become able to supply every village?

You're wrong on most of the rhetorical claims here, or demonstrate that you're not familiar with the basis for the data. Please follow the power and economy threads more, but I can't answer every point that demonstrates that you're either off the mark, not up to date on the latest data, or both. I've taken pains to extensively quote references to most or all of my earlier points. I would appreciate the same consideration in response.

[nam]

BUT BUT BUT

LOWER LEVEL OF BJP AND RSS AREN'T HALF AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS 2014, I just can't crack WHY Burntout-OR-Overconfident-OR-miffed.

PLEASE tweet to Amit Shah and Modi

Not true,the amount of enthusiasm among Sangh cadre is more than BJP.This is seen as battle of civilization. Iam one of them and have been slogging the past 1 month.

If you are, let everyone know, middle class will see income tax increase, gst as well to fulfill RG dole plans.There is no more less inflation on goods.

High inflation, more EMI to pay on home loan.

Discontinuation of Ayushman, means poor people pay out of their pocket for hospital.

[Lilo]

.....
One thing that has always nagged me is that while Modi might be the real driver of infrastructure like housing and electricity, how many rural/poor folks really know that or care about it.

If i'm poor i would care about handout rather than good highway which I probably will never use. I most likely don't even own a vehicle.
This where all the development and India Shining type of sloganeering scares me as urban/nri/IT types folks have different mindset on the voting day compared to poor majority.

Regarding roads i have posted in my previous post how PMGSY which has now reached 95% of the target to connect 1.78lakh eligible habitations with "all weather roads".
When UPA demitted office in 2014 such "all weather roads" were connecting merely 55% of these habitations.

This is the kind of rural road connectivity iam talking about.
Red are the core network of roads linking habitations with "all weather" connectivity.
Green are "fair weather roads".
Violet are block boundaries.
Black dots are habitations.
Map shows road network in Krishna river delta region in AP as on today.

GIS from http://www.pmgsy-grris.nic.in/

[ramana]

Nam, Straight from Sam Pitroda

https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... 69760?s=19

[Primus]

It is obvious to all of us that 2019 is not 2004. The Amit Shah team has already gamed this and will not repeat the ABV mistakes. There is even more at stake now because the opposition knows they are finished if Modi gets another term and we know the India of our dreams is finished if he does not. It is truly civilizational.

Our local Ekal chapter is getting together this weekend to fire up some enthusiasm and support for the BJP even though they are not manifestly pro-Modi, at least have never been. I have not seen this happen before. Indians abroad are diverse and perhaps the majority support the current government, I don't know. But there are many who have fallen for the 'Hindutva is evil' and 'Modi is a liar' memes. These are well to do people who mainly read TOI and watch NDTV for news related to India. They agree that RaGa may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but somehow are reluctant to support Modi. I am sure this is reflected in the urban elite in India too. It would not surprise me if there is a drop in pro-BJP votes in major metros for this reason.

However, I am extremely hopeful (ummeed par duniya kayam hai), even more so than I was in 2014. So much has been done for the really poor in India and they constitute a larger group than the ever-so-fickle urban masses. They are not stupid either and seem to know who is really thinking of them.

One image that is burnt in my mind from pre-UP election is the video of the old woman at her new gas stove. When asked who she is going to vote for she said 'Modi ka deyibe'. The reasoning was simple, she was no longer coughing and wheezing over a wood fire. We who are so used to the luxuries of modern life cannot ever imagine what having a toilet or a gas stove can mean to somebody who never had one. The umpteen schemes that have been launched over the past five years have transformed the lives of people at the lowest stratum of society. There is no way they have not felt the difference with this government. So now it is for them to step up to the plate and return those to power who made all this happen. If it weren't for the various caste equations, one could almost guarantee this, but again you never know.

The other issue is national security. I was in Desh when Balakot happened. Even the sales guys at a local store knew exactly how many minutes the IAF was in Pak airspace and what they had done, there was an animated discussion going on between the guys at the next counter. When the WingCo was released there was jubilation everywhere, with fireworks going off in our area. I was also in Desh post Kargil, that was a period of mourning and there was an intense feeling of frustration, anger even. This time it is different and everyone knows why.

I am not a betting person but all my money is on Modi again. The team needs to hammer home just two messages:

First " is your life even a little bit better today than it was five years ago, and if so, do you want more?"

Second "who do you feel will safeguard you and your country more - Modi or the ragtag gang of thieves?"

Honestly, I don't think corruption will carry much weight any more, at least not with the poor who have no money to bribe anyone anyway.

[UlanBatori]

Surajji, this stuff is way outside my expertise but of intense interest. Thanks for providing recent data, I will it use very well elsewhere. Will post the other-side claims/data as I find it, thx for your patience. Obviously we both WANT the same things to be true, the difference is level of realization/skepticism etc. It would be very E-Z for me too to believe all the good news. But like I posted b4, when the plane comes down to land at Mumbai, I still see the same desperation. (OK, yes, I have watched enough SRK movies to believe that there are a few millionaires living under those lean-to's)
Bhubhaneswar had the same desperation in 2012. Chennai - the high-rise developments seemed to have displaced the shanties, but one wonders where they went. Even in Malloostan, one sees the same stories of tribal woman having to be taken to hospital slung on a pole because there are no roads... people giving birth in the street... certainly this is not what I enjoy writing about.

Here are the types of "data" I see This is the optimistic side, remember.

Let's see here: Ekal Vidyalayas
85,100 schools. Those are SINGLE-TEACHER SCHOOLS. One per village. So in 85,100 villages of India, the only means of primary education is this. They are TRYING to reach 100,000 schools and beyond - out of the total of 597,000 villages (last Census figures). Why, if things are so "hunky-dory"? Again, this is the optimistic positive side. I must say that the people in these look much better dressed than their predecessors back around 2002, so there must be a good bit of truth in what you cite. That is truly awesome.

Back in the 1980s the refrain was:

"Democracy, Pemocracy, Free or not, the Chinese manage to at least get a clean shirt and pants, they seem to have something to eat. Compare that to our "Free Democratic" India! "

Back in 1970s, Indira Gandhi started "GARIBI HATAO!" And people snickered and said the only "garibi" being "hatao'ed" was that of herself and her cronies.

Well... Free Democratic Indians indeed appear to be well-dressed and have something to eat today in 2018/19.

Don't you guys and gals see the significance of this?
Look back at "Malthusian Theory": This is what the "First Worlders" predicted as the Future of us
1990 and 2000 have come and gone.

If true, it is a truly stunning revelation, and BY FAAAAAR The Most Important News of the last 100 years. Hope Wins.

Patience and Persistence Wins. Hard WorkWins. And YOU DON'T NEED either runaway capitalism nor brutal communism or oil-soaked ISIS-istanism to bring a decent level of prosperity and education.

How many people around the world realize this? How many in INDIA believe this? Which is the urgent question of today: A 2/3 majority of India voters BETTER believe this, or it's all going to go to waste and slide backwards into Africa-like disaster. Or maybe like Venezuela.

Tell your fellow Indian voters, PLEASE!!! And be prepared for their skepticism with excellent data.
But note that this sort of revolution is such a "cognitive dissonance" and the proof has to be absolute.

As for the village electricity realities, sorry Suraj, to quote "Mallory" in "Fauj Dus phrom Dera Navarone Khan":

I don't THINK. I KNOW.

India does **NOT** have nearly enough power. By about a factor of 10.

[ramana]

UB all that is water.

For BJP its UP to win.
For Congress to get to 55 its TN.
its simple as that.

[hanumadu]

https://twitter.com/chintan20/status/11 ... 0825582599

In this video, Sam Pitroda saying middle class taxes will go up.
Middle class is barely satisfied with the tax cuts in the last budget and this guy wan'ts to raise taxes.

[Primus]

Anecdotal evidence onlee.

The guy who works for a relative as a driver. His son just got into IIT. The man has no other job, makes the usual that drivers in private employment get. When you see this happening you realize that there is hope beyond the walls of gated communities. More importantly there is ambition. When you combine this with opportunity there is no stopping anyone.

Heck why look that far, as the Congoons keep shouting from the rooftops, even a "Chaiwalla" can become the PM of the sixth largest economy of the world. If you dream big and work hard, there are no limits to where you can go.

The message again should be: "Modi's India will make your dreams come true, Rahul's India will give you nightmares".

"Modi ke saath ek ujjwal bhavishya, Rahul ke saath ek bura sapna"

[nachiket]

https://twitter.com/chintan20/status/11 ... 0825582599

In this video, Sam Pitroda saying middle class taxes will go up.
Middle class is barely satisfied with the tax cuts in the last budget and this guy wan'ts to raise taxes.

Everyone should do their bit and plaster this all over SM. This directly affects the middle class who are the most prolific users of SM. Maybe it'll cause them to get off their musharrafs and vote.

[nachiket]

<snip>

One image that is burnt in my mind from pre-UP election is the video of the old woman at her new gas stove. When asked who she is going to vote for she said 'Modi ka deyibe'. The reasoning was simple, she was no longer coughing and wheezing over a wood fire. We who are so used to the luxuries of modern life cannot ever imagine what having a toilet or a gas stove can mean to somebody who never had one. The umpteen schemes that have been launched over the past five years have transformed the lives of people at the lowest stratum of society. There is no way they have not felt the difference with this government. So now it is for them to step up to the plate and return those to power who made all this happen. If it weren't for the various caste equations, one could almost guarantee this, but again you never know.

<snip>

Looking at some of the stunning successes of the administration would certainly lead anyone to believe that there is little reason for people to vote Modi out. However, that does not explain MP, Rajasthan and CG. And unfortunately, as much as we would like to believe voting patterns have changed and people are more concerned about vikas than caste, that is still not the case.

UBji is concerned that the successes of the various schemes being reported are too good to be true and actual improvement on the ground is not too much. I have a different concern. I do not doubt the data. What I doubt is how much the improved experience actually translates into votes. Some people availing these services will not credit Modi for it while others will praise him, but when it comes time to press the button on the polling machine, will look for which candidate belongs to their caste.

Even during BJP's unbelievable sweep of UP, if you looked at some of the seats that had surprisingly been won by them, it showed that the caste/religion vote had been split while everyone else coalesced around BJP (even that by itself is huge, since it hadn't happened before despite similar equations). But later Bihar showed that it is a thin line and can easily go the other way if some of your opponents come together as they have this time.

Before the December elections I had anecdotal evidence from Rajasthan that people were against V Raje but still liked Modi. So Rajasthan defeat was not a surprise for me. But MP and CG certainly were nasty surprises. In MP, especially the CM seemed to be well liked and a decent performer on the development front. Also, the Dec 2018 elections should have had the most effect of all the schemes that the central government has carried out since earlier, the schemes would have been new and not fully in effect yet. However, that did not seem to have any effect on the voters. BJP's vote % remained roughly the same, and it wasn't enough.

That si why I said earlier that it may be impossible to predict which issue will carry the most weight in which regions of the country at voting time. It does not seem to be intuitive at all.

[Lilo]

....
Laloo is sort of correct that the existence of roads itself doesn't help the poor. Their economic integration is a multi-dimensional index, to appropriate a term used in the extreme poverty index above (first quoted in the economy thread).
....

Suraj ji ,
If you are speaking about NH you may be right that their expansion dont immediately tranfer the benefits to rural population in the region.

But Rural roads are another matter entirely NaMo sarkar almost doubled in 5 years the number of habitations linked with pukka "all weather roads" under PMGSY.
See the sample poll taken amongst people on the effect of these rural roads .Note the change of opinions in poorer states like Bihar etc before and after PMGSY roads were constructed connecting their habitations.

Before Roads:



After Roads:


It is unquestionable that BJP has delivered in 5 years especially to those who matter the most.
The major problem BJP has at this point is to overcome the fakenews to inform voters that govt schemes which benefited them like PMGSY are all majorly central govt funded projects & claim the maximum credit for implementing them.
There are many local chindi chor CM's like Chandrababu for example who shamelessly take full credit for central govt schemes while claiming "center has not given money".

[ShyamSP]

Remember 2004. (I remember it well, staring at the BRF thread in disbelief as results came in).

Multiple Exit Polls (AajTak/ORG-MARG, NDTV/AC-Nielsen, Zee-TV/Taleem, Star-News/C-Voter) ALL predicted an average of 255 seats for NDA, 183 seats for INC, and 105 seats for "Others".

Actual results: 187 seats for NDA (-68 !!), 219 Seats for INC (+36), 137 seats for Others (+32)

This was after 6 years of good governance, economic development, nuclear tests, Kargil victory vs. Pakistan. Yes, there were drawbacks like the Musharraf/Agra breakfast debacle (2001) and the IC814 hijacking (1999) but (a) these matters most seriously affected only those voters focused on a national-security perspective, who weren't pro-INC or pro-Left anyway; and (b) they occurred quite some time before 2004, allowing years for them to subside in public memory relative to overall perception of the ABV govt's performance. As such the good reasons to expect re-election far outweighed the bad, more so than with any govt since PVNR at least.

Not trying to cut-and-paste a Vajpayee re-election situation on to a (hopefully very different) Modi-era environment. But posted as a warning about how massively (and unanimously) wrong psephologists have been in the past, especially because of the tendency to groupthink and embrace of "conventional wisdom" that drives the massaging of raw data.

Same will happen in 2019. Minus for NDA, Plus for INC and Others will happen this time too. But INC can't pick up (May get up to ~80 in best case) to be in the government like in 2014. NDA can still form government by getting support from one of those other parties. UP+Guj+Raj+MP+CG peaked seats in 2014 so it is only down side for BJP this time.

[UlanBatori]

I guess I have simply not understood the Indian Voter, because for the life of me I cannot imagine why anyone would vote for RaGa. LDF yes, maybe TDP and AIADMK, but RaGa, no.

[ShyamSP]

I guess I have simply not understood the Indian Voter, because for the life of me I cannot imagine why anyone would vote for RaGa. LDF yes, maybe TDP and AIADMK, but RaGa, no.

INC is picking up only in BJP states and is not going to get any seat extra in regional party states. Modi & Mota bhai co didn't do good job in west and middle India given trends in the state elections.

[atamjeetsingh]

what is general thinking on INC manifesto?

Looks like a cross between Naxals/Islamists/EJs/COMMIES ...

RG might have a strategy.

Congress has lost hope of forming government in 2019. They have realized even with mahagathbandhan its not going to happen. Right now there strategy is to get 55 or above seats. That is the reason for their BIF pasand manifesto. Right now there aim is get leader of opposition in LS so RaGa or one of piddis can get a seat on various constitutional committees which require LOP.

[Suraj]

Lilo: yes I’m familiar with PMGSY and NHDP - I was amongst the earliest to photograph them in the early 2000s and posted pics here and on Skyscrapercity India forum, where I was amongst the group when the India sunforum was created .

Laloos statement is contextual - it dates back from those days, and he’s speaking of his own state which has been near the bottom when it comes to connectivity . PMGSY back then was a long way from comprehensive coverage , seen from the fact that they still build 50K km of such roads every year these days.

[Suraj]

Looking at some of the stunning successes of the administration would certainly lead anyone to believe that there is little reason for people to vote Modi out. However, that does not explain MP, Rajasthan and CG. And unfortunately, as much as we would like to believe voting patterns have changed and people are more concerned about vikas than caste, that is still not the case.

RJ has always been a flip flop , like KL switches between UDP & LDP. MH and CG are cases of voters looking to see what the other side has to offer, after multiple mandates in favor of one party. Neither of those looked like they punished BJP.

People in general reward good performance in the short term, but not necessarily in the long term. E.g if you did administer well for 5 years, chances are good that you'll be re-elected. However if you ruled well for 20 years, it's not necessarily true that people will still vote for you again - they already know you do well, and the other side has been progressively crafting a message each time, and at some point people decide "fine let's try him out, if it doesn't work out, we can always go back to the proven performer".

What is the message of the opposition in this election cycle ? Many arithmetic issues and complications may make GE2019 complex and unpredictable. But what compelling story does anyone else have to tell ? NYAY ? It's an interesting old-wine-blend-in-new-bottle program, pretty much a "vote for me, here's cash for it" that typifies the INC message in general.

Even in 2019, India has an urban:rural ratio of 34:66 . That 34% accounts for 55% of consumer revenue, but the growth of rural consumption is 16% vs 8% for the urbanites. At current growth rate differential, rural India will be the larger consumer in 2 years. Right now, per capita consumption ratio between urban:rural is 2.35:1 . In 5 years it'll be 1.6:1 , i.e. an urban person would be spending only 60% more than a rural person.

People who collected firewood a few years ago now have clean fuel. Women, who comprise 48.5% of the population and an even smaller share of the workforce, hold 54% of the 370 million PMJDY accounts. Bank nationalization with the aim of financial inclusion, dates back to the Garibi hatao days of the early 1970a, yet more people have joined the formal banking system in 5 years than the previous 44 years. Note that this graph is from 2015. The total number of PMJDY accounts is now 370 million, i.e the unbanked shrank from 416 million in 2014, to 46 million as of present day.

This government did a smart thing - the focus on direct delivery of basic necessities of existence to the hands or rural and urban poor directly. The focus on the woman and the girl . It gets very little publicity, but it generates a lot of electoral goodwill. The rural poor today has access to clean fuel, electricity, fertilizer subsidy via DBT, healthcare and insurance cover, ability to get a business loan easily without dealing with a loan shark, and more.

As I posted earlier, India's population pyramid has reached an important tipping point for the first time in modern history - the number of working age adults has equalled or exceeds the number of dependent children and elders. This drives aspirational, career focused efforts. The number of people struggling to survive (the extreme poor) has dropped like a stone, and more people want to grow, not float.

Would all this guarantee electoral success ? I can't say. But this is what good administration should entail. A good administration is not really about Rajiv Gandhi like banana republic speeches ("humko yeh banana hai! humko woh banana hai!") Execution of a decent plan, constantly fine tuning it and improving it, is the hallmark of good administration. Many actions reflect best practices elsewhere. E.g. DBT on a larger scale was first tried as pilot projects in RJ and MP, before being extended nationwide. That's exactly how China went about implementing TVE reforms and SEZ development in the early days too - test, finetune, expand, repeat.

[SaiK]

Chowkidar Narendra Modi
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These pictures from Siliguri will give sleepless nights to the TMC! The ground beneath their feet stands shaken, their support among people is falling by the day.

Left, Congress and TMC have taken turns to ruin Bengal. BJP will stop this and provide the state a good government.

The math for 2019 changes drastically now by invading left bastion.