2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 05 May 2019 17:43

Lilo wrote:
Ranarasika wrote:#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in
Phalodi market rates today - for BJP alone (new rates opened):
240 seats 18 paise (y'day 40)
245 seats 45 paise
250 seats 95 paise (Y'day 1 rupee)
255 seats 1.35 rupees (Y'day 2.30)
280 seats - 1.80 rupees (y'day 4 rupees)
Why did the rates change since yesterday hain ji ?
Wonder what bhookamp is going to come

Could someone explain how to read these numbers, which probability is more etc?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 05 May 2019 17:51

Karthik S wrote: Could someone explain how to read these numbers, which probability is more etc?

High probability = low returns

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 05 May 2019 17:53

V_Raman wrote:Namo should not have attached RG. There was no need. We don’t talk bad about dead people in general. That too one who was assassinated. Not good. Out of character for him.

The basic gut instinct is that, true. BUT it is true that the Mr. Clean image of RG-1 must be demolished. The actual record is almost uniformly disastrous (turned victory into massive defeats, in BOFORS, IPKF, failure to take out Kahuta, the ShahBano atrocity... the list goes on. By the time he was assassinated, India was nearly broke but as someone pointed out, his Mafia had more $$ stashed abroad than India's entire forex reserve.

How was all this not his fault? It is essential to clear up that contradiction. Should that have been done halfway through the elections? I hope BeeJayPee gave good grassroots advice. Maybe my respect for NaMo went up even further because the failure to speak this truth was rankling.

When Musharaff is pest-e-sha'eed I do not plan to stop pointing out what he was.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 05 May 2019 17:55

So simple majority is low probability, not good, BJP should cross 272 on its own.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 05 May 2019 17:55

abhijitm wrote:
Karthik S wrote: Could someone explain how to read these numbers, which probability is more etc?
High probability = low returns

IOW, price is based on demand? If everyone wants, say "120 seats", then "120 seats" costs Rs. 10/-
If no one wants "300 seats" then that costs Rs. 0.01.

NOW we are into serious predictions. Where people are pricing their guesses and putting their money where their musharrafs are.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 05 May 2019 18:17

Karthik S wrote:
Lilo wrote: Why did the rates change since yesterday hain ji ?
Wonder what bhookamp is going to come
Could someone explain how to read these numbers, which probability is more etc?

Basically if an outcome is most likely to happen, the return for batting on it is lowest. The 18 paise price quoted by bookie, down from 40 paise, indicates today they feel it's lot more likely that bjp alone will get 240 seats. Its called as short odds. So if one bets 1 rupee with 18 paise quote and if bjp gets 240, they win 1.18 or 18% profit. Similarly betting that bjp alone will net 280 is offered at 1.8 ruppes down from 4 a day before, means if you bet 1 rupee and if you win you get 4 rupees. That the odds have gone down from 4 to 1.8 for bjp to win 280 on its own is indicative market feels that bjp has improved its chances by being stronger and hence probability of that happening is more now as compared to old rates.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 05 May 2019 18:22

UlanBatori wrote:
abhijitm wrote: High probability = low returns
IOW, price is based on demand? If everyone wants, say "120 seats", then "120 seats" costs Rs. 10/-
If no one wants "300 seats" then that costs Rs. 0.01.

NOW we are into serious predictions. Where people are pricing their guesses and putting their money where their musharrafs are.

as far as my knowledge goes, betting is based on odds and not demand. Betting company (satta market) open betting with educated odds on X and they keep refining the odd constantly again based on informed decision and not demand. Hence reputed betting companies' odds are closely monitored by media, corporates since they could possess inside information due to their massive money influence.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2019 18:30

satta operators will surely have their parallel out of band C4I channels to track which parties are doing well at ground level, money flows , motivation level of workers , inside dope from moles in all state level setups etc.

so far it rings true with most saner side of RW commentators saying 250ish range as mode (most common value) of estimates.

around 150 seats left to go, and this will decide what happens whether 240ish or 280ish. I dont think BJP alone will get more than its 2014 number for various reasons.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 05 May 2019 18:47

Genius of Modi, this is pinpoint accuracy Agni 5 missile right in enemy camp, now for every protest by lefty cabal they will present themselves as "joined at hip to #bhrashtachariNo1

Secondly old facts news will proliferate in public discourse AROUND KAANDs OF BHRASHTACHARI BAAP RAJIV , Dharmics don't selfBLOCK yourself, remember how BIF killed Abhimanyus (Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, Deen Dayal Upadhyay)

During 1991 balance of payments crisis.

India only had $1.2 billion of forex reserves.

but Rajiv had $2.5 billion in Swiss banks.

Rajiv Gandhi had 2x more money than entire nations forex reserves.

Imagine d scale of loot.

His son is calling others chor now! https://t.co/Ho8xeiGtMY

Fan the fires, pour petrol in it

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 05 May 2019 18:48

If and IF bjp touches 60 seats in UP then anything is possible. For now I am keepting my guess low, 40 max. Fingers crossed and hoping I am wrong.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2019 19:12

https://twitter.com/Nitin_Rivaldo

he has good dirt on RG era

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2019 19:14

Nitin Gupta
@Nitin_Rivaldo
May 4
More Nitin Gupta Retweeted Mehbooba Mufti
Muhammad fought battle of Badr on 17th day of Ramzan

Infiltration by Pak army into Kargil in 1998-99 was codenamed ‘Operation Badr’

Jinnah launched direct action day on 18th day of Ramzan

Egypt & Syria attacked Israel in 1973 during Ramadan. The war is called 'Ramadan war'!Nitin Gupta added,

Mehbooba Mufti
Verified account

@MehboobaMufti
Request GoI to cease crackdowns, & search operations during Ramzan this year so that people arent subjected to harassment & can observe the holy month in peace.Last year’s ceasefire helped in providing a huge sense of relief. Hope electoral compulsions are put aside.
40 replies 1,474 retweets 2,022 likes

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 May 2019 19:24

Singha wrote:https://twitter.com/Nitin_Rivaldo

he has good dirt on RG era

don't think that the family ever anticipated this

pappu's traitorous hobnobbing with the hans should have at least taught him this basic lesson

wasn't it was confucius who said: “Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves.”

‘Bofors ka dalal kaun hai? Rajiv Gandhi,’ How the Opposition back in the late 80s chanted ‘Rajiv Gandhi Chor Hai’

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2019 19:29

Navjot Singh Sidhu Should Go Live in Pakistan: Amit Shah | BJP chief Amit Shah is addressing a rally in Punjab's Pathankot. ""This is incident that happened in Pulwama,' he says, "Pakistan's terrorists killed 40 of our jawans. And what does minister, (Navjot Singh) Sidhu say- terrorism doesn't have a country. You should go across the Punjab border and live there."

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 05 May 2019 19:31

UlanBatori wrote: Should that have been done halfway through the elections? I hope BeeJayPee gave good grassroots advice. Maybe my respect for NaMo went up even further because the failure to speak this truth was rankling.

At least in Gujarat, BJP cells are aware that the locals are getting restless about any velvet glove treatment of dynasties and are in no mood for Prithvi Raj Chauhan redux. For example, in charotar, people are no longer willing to accept solanki like semi dynasty outfits walking around scratch free after this many years of BJP in the state govt and now in the center govt. Previously BJP workers would kick the can through various reasoning Kool aid that locals no longer want to drink. Gujaratis remember somnath lesson about going soft very well. One of the major points for Anand seat not being considered easy to win for BJP. Locals wanted to see solankis to be measurable after demonetization but that didn't happen. Their coffers were refilled like nothing happened. The size of mini pakistan within the city has been steadily increasing, even with BJP in the center, is the another major point of regular BJP voters. Seeing Bangladeshis have started being common occurrence. Pretty much every Hindu in this district knows that INC, muslim goons, and drugs go hand in hand but still it's not a given seat to BJP. Previously lot of it was being chalked off as not being in the center by local BJP workers. There are few more analysis points that came after poor showing in previous Gujarat election but are prudent to save post election. For many places, coming off as being soft may not be an option for BJP.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 05 May 2019 19:41

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIUW_igUvc4

The intense hate in SP against BSP can b seen from their attacks on SC workers of BSP. Posters, flags, festoons and images of BSP are routinely pulled down and destroyed at SP meetings. Gundaism Unabated https://twitter.com/ShilpiTiwari5/statu ... 4178156544

SaPa now has an unofficial ghatbandhan with Priyanka Gandhi & Congies in UP trying to sink behen Mayawati ji .

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 May 2019 20:06

watch video

twitter

How Mamata Banerjee wins every election.

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKida/statu ... 1273485313

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 May 2019 20:27

so he prefers dalals like the previous govt did.

twitter

India will have to decide, strong is not necessarily a good thing for democracy.Hitler was also very strong, all dictators are strong, Chinese leader is very strong, is that what India wants?: Sam Pitroda, Indian Overseas Congress Chief on BJP says PM Modi symbolizes strong Govt

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 05 May 2019 20:32

JE Menon wrote:OK, folks, my piece in Opindia. Please spread madly (pun intended on every SM channel) and pls tag me on Twitter if you post it there

@jai_menon

https://myvoice.opindia.com/2019/05/the ... -campaign/

JEMJi, long time no see. I read your piece. Good pisko analysis of Pappu. Only minor disagreement is about the way Pappu addresses ModiJi given their age difference. I say its par for course. Let Pappu attack away. But he should not cry when ModiJi counter attacks like this latest row on ModiJi's Rajiv Gandhi comment. BTW, I like your James-bond like picture, tough dude with goggles

.

On ModiJi's attack on Rajiv Gandhi, lets not get too sanctimonious. With Pappu coming out all guns blazing, ModiJi's counterattack is welcome. The only thing that I am disgusted at is that the Lutyen ecosystem has managed to throw up this dynastic dim-wit as ModiJi's equivalent. Its like elevating a novice batsman as the equivalent of Kohli only through just verbal volleys without having to actually bat. Of course, I understand ModiJi simply cannot ignore the fraudulent attacks on him, but somehow I feel its beneath his dignity to get into a dog fight with an arrogant dunce.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 May 2019 20:38

Sagarika Ghose
‏Verified account @sagarikaghose

Feedback from UP: the gathbandhan is simply not working hard enough and not addressing as many joint rallies of @yadavakhilesh and @Mayawati as it should. Might be making the mistake of taking caste arithmetic for granted

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2019 20:40

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2019 20:43

Pappu reminds me of the prince in gladiator

Btw on 23rd most of results will be known around 4pm only rather than noon because after evm count is done, 5% of evm vppat will need to be counted manually on each seat and tallied to evm count before result can be declared

But leads and exit polls will be ongoing from 6am

Its going to be long long day

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 May 2019 20:44

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1125031286559502338

TIMES NOW
‏Verified account @TimesNow

#Breaking | Rahul Gandhi calls Anil Ambani 'a crony capitalist. Anil hits back says, 'UPA gave contracts worth Rs 1L crore'. More details by @roypranesh.

Listen to what he says ... This is real exit poll

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 May 2019 20:45

and the standard lootyens redux

twitter

Arun Jaitley says today only thru media, he came to know about Rahul Gandhi’s BackOps Ltd partner Ulrik McKnight involved in Scorpene Deal @Swamy39 petitioned to all agencies and already reported in media Dec 2015. Sitting on it for more than 40 months

4:05 am - 4 May 2019 From नई दिल्ली, भारत

and the standard lootyens redux

As usual, BJP sabotaged from within. If Modi can’t clean the party of saboteurs, he’ll find himself out of office sooner than he thinks. Poor selection of union cabinet ministers has been one of this govt’s biggest failures

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 05 May 2019 20:46

I'm not happy with Modiji bring up Rajiv Gandhi either. There is no proof that he was corrupt himself, just like there is no proof that "Modi killed Muslims in Godhra".
Besides, saying this brings him down to Pappu's levels of debate. I hope he does not repeat this.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 05 May 2019 20:48

MJ Akbar weighs in on the electoral winds in WB.

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/ ... s-of-poets

Being practical, he was also cautious. There was some momentum for BJP in North Kolkata, he murmured, but he refused to commit himself to any prediction. Then suddenly his reserve cracked. He mentioned a separate constituency where the sitting MP was an acknowledged lout. “O baita haarbe-i haarbe! Gelo! Ghurni cholche, dada, ghurni cholche!” he exclaimed as many times as there were words. I can only offer a poor English version: “That son-of-a-gun is going to lose! Gone! Whirlpools are moving, brother, whirlpools are moving.”

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 May 2019 20:49

twitter

Dr. @Swamy39 had placed all the relevant information with PM, way back in 2015.

Ahmadabad Press Conference - November 19-2015.

https://www.scribd.com/doc/290208599/Ah ... ov-19-2015

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 May 2019 20:50

ANI Digital
‏Verified account @ani_digital

Rahul Gandhi is not 'pappu', says Sam Pitroda

Read @ANI Story | https://www.aninews.in/news/national/po ... 505160421/ …

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 May 2019 20:53

Euros will protect their assets
Tough to see any of these wheeler dealers hiding in london being sent for trial here until after brexit and a new indo uk fta

So may have been kept as a useful flare for last phase of elections

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 05 May 2019 21:10

chetak wrote:twitter

Dr. @Swamy39 had placed all the relevant information with PM, way back in 2015.

Ahmadabad Press Conference - November 19-2015.

It took me no more than 1 hour to dig this last week, for Jaitley to say I didn't know about it is plain stupid. He'd rather claim it was a media scoop and it will be investigated once elections are over rather than construed as a witch hunt by Lutyens.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 05 May 2019 21:19

Jetly claiming that he did not know about backops partnership gives him plausible deniability for the prosecution that's coming Rahul's way.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 05 May 2019 21:19

KJo wrote:I'm not happy with Modiji bring up Rajiv Gandhi either. There is no proof that he was corrupt himself, just like there is no proof that "Modi killed Muslims in Godhra".
Besides, saying this brings him down to Pappu's levels of debate. I hope he does not repeat this.

Pardon me, but I don't know if you recall the events from 1989-1991. They are quite vivid to many of us who were adults at the time. In 1989, VP Singh resigned as Rajiv Gandhi's finance minister over the scandals of Bofors and HDW. There was at least tens of millions USD in direct kickbacks to Rajiv Gandhi and family from the HDW deal alone. There is a lot of proof about Rajiv Gandhi and family involved in severe corruption, but hasn't been talked about since he was killed. The INC is falsely accusing Modi and the BJP of corruption, they're hitting below the belt, so the gloves have come off. I would say not just Rajiv, but Indira and Banditji are also fair game. In 1977, Indira, Rajiv, Sanjay and all their family were trying to leave India to avoid arrest on the grounds of corruption having lost the election; but they were stopped at Palam airport in Delhi. Perhaps the country would have been much better off had they been allowed to leave in exile promising never to return.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 May 2019 21:31

There is a reason why Rajiv has been brought into the conversation right now. PAPPU is using MaunMohan Singh last one week to spout lies on surgical strikes because of Punjab elections. Rajiv has been brought in so that scum family maurderous past is discussed in Punjab. We all know "when big tree falls, earth quakes" jyaan from RG. Punjab sikhs need to remember. Hearing Punjab has changed from 10-1 contest to 7-5 contest

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 05 May 2019 21:32

It's Backops not Blackops as shown in the documents. Some sloppy work.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 May 2019 21:32

Diggi padayatra ... crowds

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 05 May 2019 21:33

Guys. good hard hitting interview that YogiJi gave to TimesNow (Navika). She hammered him on the Hinduthva themes, but YogiJi shot right back. He also addressed what Lutyen ass holes made a mountain out of a mole hill, namely, his reference to 'ModiJi ki Sena".

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 05 May 2019 21:34

vijayk wrote:There is a reason why Rajiv has been brought into the conversation right now. PAPPU is using MaunMohan Singh last one week to spout lies on surgical strikes because of Punjab elections. Rajiv has been brought in so that scum family maurderous past is discussed in Punjab. We all know "when big tree falls, earth quakes" jyaan from RG. Punjab sikhs need to remember. Hearing Punjab has changed from 10-1 contest to 7-5 contest

Didn't think of that. Boy do ModiJi/Amit Shah know the art of surgical strikes

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 05 May 2019 21:35

Mort Walker wrote:
KJo wrote:I'm not happy with Modiji bring up Rajiv Gandhi either. There is no proof that he was corrupt himself, just like there is no proof that "Modi killed Muslims in Godhra".
Besides, saying this brings him down to Pappu's levels of debate. I hope he does not repeat this.
Pardon me, but I don't know if you recall the events from 1989-1991. They are quite vivid to many of us who were adults at the time. In 1989, VP Singh resigned as Rajiv Gandhi's finance minister over the scandals of Bofors and HDW. There was at least tens of millions USD in direct kickbacks to Rajiv Gandhi and family from the HDW deal alone. There is a lot of proof about Rajiv Gandhi and family involved in severe corruption, but hasn't been talked about since he was killed. The INC is falsely accusing Modi and the BJP of corruption, they're hitting below the belt, so the gloves have come off. I would say not just Rajiv, but Indira and Banditji are also fair game. In 1977, Indira, Rajiv, Sanjay and all their family were trying to leave India to avoid arrest on the grounds of corruption having lost the election; but they were stopped at Palam airport in Delhi. Perhaps the country would have been much better off had they been allowed to leave in exile promising never to return.

I was almost an adult back then, but I followed politics. VPS resigned, but he was a crook who soon pulled out Mandal and got kicked out. If Rajiv was corrupt and there was ample proof, then why wasn't it brought out when Modi was PM? The excuse of "he will become a martyr" does not fly. I am talking only about Rajiv, not about Sanjay/Indira/Panditji. He was naive, had bad friends and was for a large part in above his head dealing with Congress stalwarts but taking money himself? That's just conjecture. The others are that Rajiv taunted Sikhs during 1984. I saw the video, it is part of a longer speech and the quote is cherry picked. Also Amitabh Bachchan egging on people to kill Sikhs... his mother was Sikh, and there is no proof that he did anything, it's just gone viral.

disha · Post by **disha** » 05 May 2019 21:37

KJo wrote:I'm not happy with Modiji bring up Rajiv Gandhi either. There is no proof that he was corrupt himself, just like there is no proof that "Modi killed Muslims in Godhra".
Besides, saying this brings him down to Pappu's levels of debate. I hope he does not repeat this.

Just repeat Bofors, Bhopal & Quatrochi!

Mr Clean was the most dirtiest arrogant of them all!

Have you ever wondered why Olaf Palme was murdered?

komal · Post by **komal** » 05 May 2019 21:39

^
India appears to have lost a $250 million World Bank credit for the construction of much-needed fertilizer plants because of a controversial Cabinet decision to replace an American consulting company selected by engineering experts.

There have been suggestions in the press and Parliament here that the rejection of the experts' choice by the Government of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was the result of influence peddling and nepotism.

....

The decision raised eyebrows and rumors and last week the political opposition charged that technical experts were ignored because of what was termed ''the Italian connection'' of Haldor Topsoe.

....

In Parliament, Mr. Sethi struck back at those referring to the ''Italian connection'' by saying he resented allegations that because ''somebody higher up'' in Government had foreign relatives, this determined the award of contracts. Mrs. Gandhi's son, Rajiv, is married to an Italian.

https://www.nytimes.com/1981/01/06/busi ... ld-up.html