Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Posted: 19 Apr 2019 00:29
Yeah looks too far but except KL most of the difficult states are out and WB prediction is now 4/6, Odisha 5/8 for ph1/2.
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Yes, let's not start preparing the butter-chicken before the murghis hatch. Even 300 for BJP is a very very tall order. The 2014 wave was humongous and there are more headwinds this time.KL Dubey wrote:2/3rd majority for BJP on its own, i.e. 362 seats, looks like a bridge too far this time (but you never know what Modi can do!).Supratik wrote:357 seats left to poll. Going by Chintamani's numbers BJP needs to win 202 of these for simple majority and 291 for 2/3.
https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu/statu ... 5838384131Here are my seat calls for first phase in KA
B North- BJP
B Central- BJP
B South- BJP
B Rural- Con
Chikkaballapur- BJP(Flip)
Kolar- Too close
Mysore- Too close
Tumkur- Too close
Chitradurga- BJP(Flip)
Hassan- JDS
Mandya- JDS
Chamarajanagar- Con
Udupi- BJP
S Canara- BJP
Here's how I translated that in my weak Hindi: "I won't let you climb on this dais. You are a deceitful liar. Do you remember the last time you came and told us Muslims so many words, and we took you on your word and voted INC in. And now you're coming back 5 years later saying the same thing. You are shameless".IndraD wrote:Mulllah stop Ahmed Patel from getting on dais https://twitter.com/jpsin1/status/1118898250730233858
kit wrote:kerala is not so different from bengal despite being 100% literate
.. which sane person will vote the commies
Suraj wrote:It also serves as a dog whistle to signal that the 2nd admin will focus more on Hindu causes and needs the electoral support.ShyamSP wrote: Looks like by putting Sadhvi in the race, BJP is indicating they want to recharge Hindutva in MP and other core areas to cut down losses.
Supratik wrote:The term Hindutva was coined by a Bengali much before Savarkar. The icons were/are Bankim, Vivekananda and Aurobindo.
Well, whoever coined it, Bengal is the place it needs to find the most traction at this juncture. Nowhere else in the country are Hindus under such imminent threat (since the Kashmiri Hindus have already been driven out).shravan wrote:Supratik wrote:The term Hindutva was coined by a Bengali much before Savarkar. The icons were/are Bankim, Vivekananda and Aurobindo.
I always thought hindutva was coined by Savarkar
Suraj ji & others please to go through this interview of BRP Bhaskar.Suraj wrote: 'Voting for commies' is the first step in misunderstanding KL politics. Yes their name says 'communist', but they're as Communist as CPC in Beijing, perhaps less, despite wasting vocal energy babbling 'China's chairman is our chairman' from the local street corner now and then.
LDP is a vote bloc, solidified over decades of patronage network building, where many communities depend on them in a symbiotic socio-economic contract - we vote for you, you look after our business and life interests.
LDF and UDF are not parties in KL as much as patronage networks with an assiduously cultivated base and a floating voter base that switches between the two opportunistically.
BJPs key to gaining a foothold is building a social network of its own - a collection of leaders and cadre who can offer support to its voting group and build a base with them. Their natural vote base is the LDF, and the actions of LDF (e.g. Sabarimala) should serve as fuel to cause people to move to BJP, but it still requires work because people would rather vote for a bad but still powerful LDF than a powerless state BJP.
As long as the casteist leaders like sukumaran nair & his ilk & vellapally natesan & his ilk & their casteist orgs like NSS or SNDP or KPMS(minor role) are littering the Hindu society in Kerala ,...
As a political observer, how do you look at Vellapally Natesan's efforts to unite the Hindus of Kerala as a political force?
This is not the first time that such an effort is being made to consolidate the Hindu political wing.
Mannath Padmanabhan and R Sankar, the two leaders of the prominent caste organisations, the Nair Service Society and the SNDP Yogam that speaks on behalf of the Ezhava community, made an effort way back in the 1950s and 1960s to bring all together under the Hindu Maha Mandalam.
The motivating factor was the general feeling among the political class that the Congress was getting controlled by the Christians. But the effort did not succeed.
Why didn't it succeed?
There are inherent contradictions between the position of the Nair community and the Ezhava community. The Nairs enjoyed certain benefits under the old caste system. Naturally they wanted to preserve that.
So whatever efforts they made were short lived. Later, when K Karunakaran was chief minister, the NSS and SNDP started sponsoring their own political parties because as caste organisations, they could not be on the political scene.
In fact, in 1947 at the time of Independence, the NSS and SNDP Yogam declared that they were withdrawing from the political field.So, during Karunakaran's time, the NSS created the National Democratic Party and the SNDP Yogam created the Social Republican Party. Both became allies of the UDF (United Democratic Front) at one time. They were in the Karunakaran ministry also. But this also didn't last too long.
Has the political atmosphere changed in anyway today?
The inherent contradictions remain. A few years ago, when Vellapally became the SNDP leader, he and the NSS secretary made an attempt, but that too did not bear fruit. Vellapally could not bring all under a Hindu umbrella.
I don't think Hindu consolidation is going to work in Kerala. It is very difficult to create a common Hindu identity because of the differences between the so-called upper castes and the lower castes.
B R P Bhaskar, 83, is one of the most respected journalists in Kerala. He started his career at The Hindu and went on work with The Statesman, Patriot, Deccan Herald, before he became the consultant editor of the Asianet television channel when it was launched in 1994.
Bhaskar, below, left, discussed with Shobha Warrier/Rediff.com the political changes expected in Kerala, which will go to the polls in a few months' time.
Don't think hindutva was coined in bengal. It was things like "vande mataram" precursor of bharat mata ki jai in the novel Ananda math. The book is ubashedly "hindu". hindutva is a curious word part urdu? with sanskrit suffix. Who used it first?nachiket wrote:Well, whoever coined it, Bengal is the place it needs to find the most traction at this juncture. Nowhere else in the country are Hindus under such imminent threat (since the Kashmiri Hindus have already been driven out).shravan wrote:
I always thought hindutva was coined by Savarkar
Suraj, I find your conclusions compelling. Could you please link to your earlier post on this topic? I wasn't able to find it through the search feature.Suraj wrote:Rudradev, very interesting insights. I've been looking at this voteshare data too, having posted about it earlier in this thread a few days ago.
There have been only two elections where INC/UPA was not the highest voteshare recipient, regardless of who won the election - 1977 and 2014. Every other election, including NDA1 and various short term goverments, INC was by a long distance the largest voteshare gainer. This is a reflection of the fact that INC was the default 'national party vote'.
BJP on the other hand always had far higher voteshare to seatshare conversion - a blessing and a curse, because its voteshare is concentrated in areas where it wins most of its seats . However, if it loses out in FPTP margin in its stronghold regions to opposition alliances, It demonstrates dramatic drops in seatshare even with rather minimal loss in voteshare. This is the entire premise of mahathugbandhan.
The INC has generally managed to keep up voteshare while steadily eroding seatshare to alliance partners, except for 2009. It wasn't until 2014 that it saw catastrophic voteshare losses. During its previous nadir in 1999 for example 114 seats was accompanied by 28.3% voteshare ; BJP won 282 seats in 2014 on 31.4% voteshare!
BJP, until it has the national party default vote nationwide, has to always attempt to focus on the FPTP position in its stronghold regions, since it's vulnerable to vote transfer by opportunistic alliances. It therefore needs to appeal to a broadbased audience that gives it enough of a consolidated vote to be the first past the post.
Let me tell you all one thing -Mukesh.Kumar wrote:++1 Singhaji. You hit the nail on the head. It's the same goons running the show mostly. But under garb of TMC.Singha wrote:The people bengal created the monster called cpim which transformed into tmc
Wb always has highest degree of voters being threatened and political violence all tighly controlled by state govt and not leaked to outside media
The dissonance we see is partly because some of the goons (intellectual and street, both) from the Left were left out in the field by Didi. That's why the tightly controlled narrative of no violence is breaking down.
That's essentially what I stated in the post you quoted too. BJP ought to be the one that gets the national party vote. The reason for this is the ease of alliance. INC doesn't manage to gain alliances despite just 44 seats because of some 'secular coalition' ethos. They get that power from their nationwide voteshare base. All any regional party needs to offer is the incremental voteshare for FPTP . Once BJP has the base voteshare, they will be more attractive for alliances. IMHO, all the 'sickular alliance' babble has nothing to do with sickular and everything to do with the ability to add base votes. BJP - with the NPONG vote - will be able to hoover up the small alliances all over that INC still has the ability to do with its still 20% NPONG national voteshare.Rudradev wrote:If in 2019 the vote share of INC/UPA is utterly dwarfed by that of BJP/NDA... that will truly mark the end of the INC era. That is what it will really take to make Bharat "Congress-Mukth"... a demonstration that 2014 was not a freak occurrence like 1977, but a harbinger of the New Normal. That is what it will take to make not only Non-INC/Non-BJP "Other" politicians, but also the members of the Congress Ecosystem, recognize that the party is finally over for good.
India’s ranking on Ease of Doing Business has risen dramatically, from 142 in 2014 to 77 now. And landmark reforms such as Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and GST have improved tax compliance. But red tape and regulatory bottlenecks still persist, and this leaves room for corruption. How do you plan to make the system truly corruption-free and citizen-friendly?
I am very surprised to see The Times of India acknowledge an achievement of our government in at least one half of the question. It would have been good if you had written now and then about our reforms and achievements, their impact, and informed people about it. Anyway, better late than never. I am thankful to you for recognising our work.
Modi ji will never lose, Bharatiya's loss! He is not an ordinary politicians. He is a punyAtmaRudradev wrote:^^ If Modi ji loses onlee, , we know whose fault it will be. Bunk marta hai saala.
hehehwilliams wrote:As usual excellent interview by the Prime Minister. I hope Rahul ji can sit for an interview. That will seal the deal
His 2014 interview with Arnab was a disaster for him. Some good cartoons from back then -williams wrote:As usual excellent interview by the Prime Minister. I hope Rahul ji can sit for an interview. That will seal the deal
No, the judge did not keep the case pending. She was charged under two separate pieces of legislation. One, Maharashtra specific on organised crime (MACOA) and a 60s era central legislation on unlawful seditious activities such as asking for a separate Dravida Nadu, a crime. She was discharged in MACOA because the case fell apart when key witnesses retracted their testimony. But that didn't make the charges under the Central law go away. So the judge was technically in the right. As to why Mah govt didn't withdraw charges under the second, all these days is a mystery to me.ramana wrote:vijayk wrote:The whole CON/CIA/ISI/NYT/WaPo and corrupt scum media has been bringing in venom on Sadhvi's nomination in Bhopal. Has she been acquitted? Is this necessary? Will the full hatred by MSM impact middle class voting?
How is it going to impact this in UP/MP/RJ?
The NIA has dropped the prosecution.
However judge has kept the case pending.
There is nothing to prosecute.
Judge is old timer Congress gang.
I voted in B'lore central (Shivajinnagar) which had the lowest turnover of all the assembly segments, in the LS seat with the lowest t/o in phase 2 with the exception of Srinagar.IndraD wrote:any one from Bangalore?
Over all voting turnout is not even 50% in three zones.
Why? And which way wind seems to be blowing in Blore?
It would be a miracle!! Dr. Patil has put his reputation on the line here. His confidence level must be really high. Or so I hope.Rahul M wrote: holy **** !
even if they manage to get 40-0% of the 42 seats, that would be HUGE !
Priyanka Chaturvedi ✔ @priyankac19
Deeply saddened that lumpen goons get prefence in @incindia over those who have given their sweat&blood. Having faced brickbats&abuse across board for the party but yet those who threatened me within the party getting away with not even a rap on their knuckles is unfortunate.
how does it matter ?chetak wrote:let us hope that this is true
Lok Sabha Election 2019 LIVE updates: Priyanka Chaturvedi resigns from all Congress posts, removes party name from Twitter bio
Priyanka Chaturvedi ✔ @priyankac19
Deeply saddened that lumpen goons get prefence in @incindia over those who have given their sweat&blood. Having faced brickbats&abuse across board for the party but yet those who threatened me within the party getting away with not even a rap on their knuckles is unfortunate.