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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:03
by pankajs
Karnataka government will not survive this Tsunamo ... Nor Rajasthan and MP.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:06
by KL Dubey
Dr. BB has released his final bredictions with all the tossups also allocated to winners. No paid subscription needed now....

https://5forty3.in/data_Intelligence.php

BJP 304, NDA 364. UPA 94.

Vote share: NDA 46%, UPA 22%.

Doc, I hope you are correct...for your own sake :D

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:06
by syam
op Balakot , 6k money kisan scheme and reservation negated whatever bad press modiji had in his strongholds. I don't think they will lose any seats from UP and other core states.

Also another thing is, all the hate commies and congis spewing day and night had backfired. It became them vs us. Modiji became even more popular now. Even in states like AP, modiji has silent support. The psyops backfired. Only votes opposition will get for sure are hardcore anti-modi votes.

UB saar, let's go all out. If Modiji loses, we will be in big depression anyway. Getting numbers wrong will be our last worry by the time..

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:11
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

WB >> 19-23 out of 42 (TMC 19-22)

Outstanding!

Vote share TMC [41 (+1); BJP [41 (+24)]; Left [5]; CON [7]

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:16
by Mort Walker
syam wrote:op Balakot , 6k money kisan scheme and reservation negated whatever bad press modiji had in his strongholds. I don't think they will lose any seats from UP and other core states.

Also another thing is, all the hate commies and congis spewing day and night had backfired. It became them vs us. Modiji became even more popular now. Even in states like AP, modiji has silent support. The psyops backfired. Only votes opposition will get for sure are hardcore anti-modi votes.

UB saar, let's go all out. If Modiji loses, we will be in big depression anyway. Getting numbers wrong will be our last worry by the time..


BJP will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((
RaGa will be PM and Mamta DiDi will be HM.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:17
by UlanBatori
Bad news in TN: DMK-Cong sweeps? Hope this exit poll is wrong.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:20
by Mort Walker
pankajs wrote:Karnataka government will not survive this Tsunamo ... Nor Rajasthan and MP.


Exactly. MLAs will begin defections in early June.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:21
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

Bihar >> 38-40 out of 40 (MGB 0-2) => Clean sweep

Outstanding! No Shotgun; No Tudke Tukde gang; No Kirti Azad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:24
by UlanBatori
TIMES NOW sample size is 40,000. 4E04. yeah, yeah, you can do all sorts of statistical mumbo jumbo but electorate is 900 million. 9E8. Victory margin in each constituency is maybe 2% - 5%.

So their exit poll has the same danger as HiC's in 2016. Indian system is more robust than the US Electoral College mumbo-jumbo, but Indian elections have 3 or more viable candidates in each constituency. So exit polls (hu u voted 4?) are meaningless.

UBCN's AI-based (since we ain't got no NI) Sentiment-Sensor Modeling Technique (SSMT) algorithm, however, has no such weakness. Our model is continuously adjusted to reflect all news that we get. So to the extent that we are given the news, we model how that will affect the SENTIMENT of individual voters. This is super-accurate. We model how EVERY voter WOULD HAVE voted, and disregard how a tiny sample SAY they voted.

Of course if we err initially it is because we were not given the full news. Or that the voter didn't get the news. Never our fault. :(( But we will fix that in our Corrector Step. :mrgreen:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:25
by CRamS
Guys, UP seems a bit of a challenge for BJP, at least according to Yeshwant Deshmukh of C-voter. Hope he is wrong:-). I want YogiJi to reign big

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:27
by hanumadu
UlanBatori wrote:Bad news in TN: DMK-Cong sweeps? Hope this exit poll is wrong.


c voter and jan ki baat are giving 10 which itself is a miracle according to them.
India today is giving them 5.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:28
by Atmavik
UlanBatori wrote:TIMES NOW sample size is 40,000. 4E04. yeah, yeah, you can do all sorts of statistical mumbo jumbo but electorate is 900 million. 9E8. Victory margin in each constituency is maybe 2% - 5%.

So their exit poll has the same danger as HiC's in 2016. Indian system is more robust than the US Electoral College mumbo-jumbo, but Indian elections have 3 or more viable candidates in each constituency. So exit polls (hu u voted 4?) are meaningless.

UBCN's AI-based (since we ain't got no NI) Sentiment-Sensor Modeling Technique (SSMT) algorithm, however, has no such weakness. Our model is continuously adjusted to reflect all news that we get. So to the extent that we are given the news, we model how that will affect the SENTIMENT of individual voters. This is super-accurate. Of course if we err initially it is because we were not given the full news. Or that the voter didn't get the news. Never our fault. :(( But we will fix that in our Corrector Step. :mrgreen:


Is it AI based or AL based like AL-jazeeee.... ?

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:28
by pankajs
Mort Walker wrote:
pankajs wrote:Karnataka government will not survive this Tsunamo ... Nor Rajasthan and MP.


Exactly. MLAs will begin defections in early June.

Just now Rajdeep made the same point.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:29
by UlanBatori
The "A" is whatever you want it to be. BTW, in TN, post MGR& JL, I guess there is no Divine Figure. Match between unknown bureaucrats (Palaniappan?) and experienced goons (Stalin?Pol Pot?) and "INC" which means "Evangelists".

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:30
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

Jarkhand >> 12-14 out of 14 (CON 0-2) => Clean sweep

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:30
by abhik
Aaj Tak/India Today numbers looks like might give Dr. PP a run for his money, predicting 304-344 out of 479; 62-68 in UP.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:31
by williams
I don't know if I am dreaming but even TN averages 10 seats for NDA. Modi wave has reached the south is probably the explanation.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:32
by vimal
While we are watching results that mudi guy is enjoying in hill station. Waste fellow!

Lalu is the next PM.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:35
by UlanBatori
Jihaibibiji's "mind" works in wonderful ways:
I don’t trust #ExitPoll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of #EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together: @MamataOfficial


She is giving the order through that tweet.

IANS Tweets
‏Verified account @ians_india
#Punjab Chief Minister #AmarinderSingh on May 19 rejected the various #ExitPolls , saying their accuracy was suspect and he expected the #Congress to do much better both at the national level and in the state.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:36
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

Orissa >> 15-19 out of 21 (Naveen 2-6)

Outstanding!

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:39
by KL Dubey
Despite all these boll results, I think NDA will lose. :(( :((

UPA and others will cobble a goremint. Urmila Matondkar will be seen as the "most acceptable face" (literally) and will become PM. To counter this, Hema Malini will be chosen the leader of opposition.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:39
by pankajs
UlanBatori wrote:Jihaibibiji's "mind" works in wonderful ways:
I don’t trust #ExitPoll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of #EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together: @MamataOfficial


She is giving the order through that tweet.

IANS Tweets
‏Verified account @ians_india
#Punjab Chief Minister #AmarinderSingh on May 19 rejected the various #ExitPolls , saying their accuracy was suspect and he expected the #Congress to do much better both at the national level and in the state.

Our pappu uwach >> Rahul Gandhi says EC's 'capitulation before Modi and gang' obvious to all

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:42
by YumKay
Today in early evening moon was especially red, some ones dreams have shattered. Sweet dreams Durkha, turdesai et al.
On 23 unfortunately I will miss the excitement of results as I have unavoidable duty elsewhere, boohoooo.
For me today itself is 23rd.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:42
by Rajesh_MR
Woke up and started seeing all exit polls. Mudi will loose only :(( :(( :((

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:43
by UlanBatori
India Today
Exit poll West Bengal: BJP springs big surprise on Didi
The BJP may just have cracked open the formula to winning over Bengali votes. It looks like it will be neck and neck fight between the TMC and the BJP with 19-22 seats for Mamata Banerjee and 19-23 seats for the Modi government.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:43
by Suraj
Supratik wrote:Australia just got all its opinion polls and exit polls wrong. So wait for May 23.

And the Australian elections has 7 million total votes with the difference between winner and loser being just 30000 votes. Further, Australia voted back in the Conservatives.

The bottom line is that they had a close election and that polls recently have repeatedly underestimated a conservative sentiment (US, Australia, various European countries) because the center-left media voice is louder than center right .

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:44
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

Assam >> 12-14 out of 14 => Clean sweep

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:44
by UlanBatori
UBCN flash:
Yeti sighting was because 52-inch chested Modiji's Size 34-foot bro came visiting from Jupiter. Explains Modiji's sudden trip to Himalayas.

Serious: IndiaTodin flashing 271-298 out of 451 for EnnDeeAy. Which works out to 284.5 average. So we are upping our prediction to NDA:341

Modi will lose onlee :((

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:45
by hanumadu
India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP
Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority.
HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP.
This India-Today poll is suspect.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:46
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

Arunachal >> 2 out of 2

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:46
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

Tripura >> 2 out of 2
Manipur >> 2 out of 2

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:48
by YumKay
BJP will surely lose.
Pappu will be pm.
Never say die

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:50
by KL Dubey
*Ornob is grinning from ear to ear all day. He is looking forward to another 5 years of TRP. The fellows on NDTV seem to have long faces. Srinivasan Jain has the JBF look. Saggy and Needy still banking on the Australian polls. :mrgreen:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:50
by Dilbu
Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:50
by pankajs
Indian Today (For BJP)

UP >> Vote share BJP [48 (+4)], MBG (39 (-4)], CON [8(0)], OTH [5(0)]

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:51
by UlanBatori
hanumadu wrote:India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP
Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority.
HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP.
This India-Today poll is suspect.

Good point, but Muslim Assamese are probably not against expelling more recent BD arrivals and see NDA as best bet for development. Being majority they have no fear of yindootva agenda in their locality.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:52
by Dilbu
We need a liberal dose of anti-jinx from now on. BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:52
by fanne
wohoo dilbu is back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:53
by hnair
Dilbu wrote:We need a liberal dose of anti-jinx from now on. BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((



:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Dramatic entrance....... dude, check your email.... must be full

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Posted: 19 May 2019 20:53
by Suraj
Dilbu wrote:Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

ADMINS! Ban this late Latif!

PS : welcome back . No one can save you from the barrage of chappals coming your way :)