2019 General Elections News and Discussion

[hanumadu]

I wish "Arnab Goswami" gets mature, he should stop shouting his lungs out and let others respond. I can understand he got limited time but it will make discussion more entertaining.

He has limited time because he invites unlimited guests.

[RKumar]

Sir, if anti-jinxs do not work then feel free to ban us for life

[pankajs]

Opposition delays meet!

Bhat ij there to meet hain?

[Peregrine]

Fully Posted on the Terroristan Thread

NSA appointment on the cards to revive ‘backchannel’ with India - Kamran Yousaf

I'm the Dim expected to appoint Prospective Terroristani NSA preparing his Back-Channel for India.

Cheers

[KL Dubey]

@VDPAssociates

NDA-333
BJP-281
NDA Allies-52
UPA-115
Cong-64
UPA Allies-51
Others-94

VDPAssociates Data Analytics Team has added 18 MP seats where there is rather close contest between BJP and Opposition parties(Maharashtra-1,Karnataka-3,MP-1,UP-5,Bihar-1,Bengal-1,Odisha-1,CG-1 and few other seats) to Opposition tally giving Opposition benefit of doubt

If Modi is able to swing them NDA figure from 333 could go further up.361 is number required for 2/3rd majority.

[ShyamSP]

This collected some "Exit" polls
https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india- ... tes-521030

Code: Select all

Pollster          NDA        UPA        Others    BJP    INC  MGB
Times Now         306        132        104                       
Republic-Cvoter   287        128        87                    40
Chanakya          340        70         133                       
IndiaTV-CNX       290-310    115-125    116-128        


AP-MPs           TDP      YCP       Others   
TimesNow         7        18           
Republic-Cvoter  14       11        0
Chanakya         17       8         0
IndiaTV-CNX                              
Lagadapati       15       10        0


[Ardeshir]

Opposition delays meet!

Bhat ij there to meet hain?

Postponed UPA PM selection from May 24 to '24 May

[RKumar]

Pak will have to wait another 5 years to talk with India!! Till than either they have to stop terrorist activities or get daily beating on the border. Even they might have to hand over PoK to India.

[KL Dubey]

According to *Ornob...."ek vyakti", who is "not a serious politician", is leaving for London tonight.....

[Karan M]

On twitter there are at least two journos from the pseudo-liberal elitist gang complaining about their family kicking them out of their WA group. ]

Who? Time to savor unicorn tears, they are delish.

[ShyamSP]

Opposition delays meet!

Bhat ij there to meet hain?

Postponed UPA PM selection from May 24 to '24 May

CVoter predicts UPA-MGB 170 . They can easily pull in 100 more. Sonia is planning to to meet Kalam and bid for PM.

[KL Dubey]

Reporting for duty sir.

^What took you so long?

*Others have put in their anti-jinxes. However if their anti-jinx'es do not work, I am recommending they they all be banned for 5 days.

IMO he has a valid reason: Anti-jinxes only are needed when you are almost sure of winning and want to prevent a jinx. I guess that situation started today after the polling is over.

[disha]

Just FYI...the exit poll results are already being compiled on Wikipedia for ready reference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_polls_for_the_2019_Indian_general_election

IndiaTV-CNX has taken too long with their program, but they are just done. Prediction is NDA 300 and UPA 120.

Some quick thumb calc - Average across all for NDA is 303. Median is 305. Max is 352 and Min is 242. Taking out the outliers (350 and 242), the average and the median are the same (305).

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Postponed UPA PM selection from May 24 to '24 May

CVoter predicts UPA-MGB 170 . They can easily pull in 100 more. Sonia is planning to to meet Kalam and bid for PM.

Kalam!!????!!!

You mean President Kovind

[darshan]

India Speaks Daily is for NDA on exit polls: https://youtu.be/-pLAopKrD74

[disha]

So both Axis and Today’s Chanakya give NDA 350+ . And multiple others over 300 . Time for a poll of exit polls now that everyone’s numbers are out .

From Dubey'jis wiki link.

Some quick thumb calc - Average across all for NDA is 303. Median is 305. Max is 352 and Min is 242. Taking out the outliers (352 and 242), the average and the median are the same (305).

[kit]

Pak will have to wait another 5 years to talk with India!! Till than either they have to stop terrorist activities or get daily beating on the border. Even they might have to hand over PoK to India.

Handing over POK is the easiest way out of their misery .. and a realization perhaps that they are their own worst enemy

[Karthik S]

OG Saffron @OGSaffron
Following Following @OGSaffron
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Exit polls reveal what the future holds and it's beautiful.

[kit]

CVoter predicts UPA-MGB 170 . They can easily pull in 100 more. Sonia is planning to to meet Kalam and bid for PM.

Kalam!!????!!!

You mean President Kovind

No he is right ..

[kittoo]

I'd still caution us to not have pre-mature celebrations. I hope with all my heart that BJP wins on 23rd and that exit polls are in right direction. I am surely glad with exit polls, but lets first wait for 23rd I believe. Just my humble 2 cents.

[Singha]

mihir swaroop sharma who is usually highly critical of namo, has suddenly executed a U-turn
https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/if-exit-po ... topstories

[pankajs]

Postponed UPA PM selection from May 24 to '24 May

CVoter predicts UPA-MGB 170 . They can easily pull in 100 more. Sonia is planning to to meet Kalam and bid for PM.

Sonia can take her request with Kalam. Why would BJP/Modi/India/myself mind?

[A_Gupta]

Which pollster was most accurate in 2014?

[Nalla Baalu]

Which pollster was most accurate in 2014?

Today's Chanakya

[disha]

Have to quote the full tweet from #DoltEconomist* (the IndiaNoMix book was first published in 2012 and Rupa married Vivek Dehejia after the book. Both of them are dolts in their own right. On a different note, #DoltEconomist was taken in by tweets from #BrownBrumby a Baki/ISI handle from Oz - #DoltEconomist wanted to have coffee with #BrownBrumby in SoBo).

Chaddi Subramanya needs Burnol on her Musharraf.
https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/stat ... 4291639296

If these trends hold from the exit polls,my hunch Modi would come back big despite what all the conventional wisdom says will have been proved right. I expected him to do at least as well as 2014 but this is even beyond that. Statistically implausible but mathematically possible.

11 replies 3 retweets 23 likes

Notice how she keeps sprinkling her tweets with 'Statistically' and 'Mathematically'. Arybhatta's direct descendant, alumus of the Choudhary Charan Singh University of Kaneda.

Isn't Statistics a branch of Mathematics? What #DoltEconomist is trying to say that she did not calculate the chance of Modi winning a second term with an even bigger mandate! What an idiot!

*I called her out as underwear economist and she blocked me (or was it calling out that she got hots for the Baki Brumby from Oz?).

[ShyamSP]

Kalam!!????!!!

You mean President Kovind

No he is right ..

No sense of dilbu

> Republic-Cvoter 287 128 87 40

With 10% error
NDA 258 (-10%)
UPA+MGB+Others 280 (+10%)

[KL Dubey]

So both Axis and Today’s Chanakya give NDA 350+ . And multiple others over 300 . Time for a poll of exit polls now that everyone’s numbers are out .

From Dubey'jis wiki link.

Some quick thumb calc - Average across all for NDA is 303. Median is 305. Max is 352 and Min is 242. Taking out the outliers (352 and 242), the average and the median are the same (305).

Similarly in 2014:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Indian_general_election#Exit_polls

The average was 283. Max was 340 and Min was 249. Taking out these outliers, the average was 278 and the median was 276 (practically the same).

Actual result was 336 (about 60 higher than the mean/median prediction).



Scenario 1: The exit polls have gotten much better/more intelligent than 2014. So the actual result would be close to the median: 300-310.

Scenario 2: The accuracy of the polls remains similar, and the NaMo wave manages to tilt several of the tossup seats so that the upper outlier is closer to the actual result. In this case, it would be 345-355.

Scenario 3: All exit polls have fawked up this time and gone in the wrong direction. BJP down to 180 seats. NDA at 220. Urmila Matondkar becomes PM of milawati sarkar.

I think it will be Scenario 3

[Ardeshir]

Some Congress Netas on my Chehra Kitaab are trying to keep their chin up. Apparently this is their internal poll:

[Rahul M]

Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee

Where were you ? I even sent a couple of ekhats to the account s I know of.

[pankajs]

On twitter there are at least two journos from the pseudo-liberal elitist gang complaining about their family kicking them out of their WA group. ]

Who? Time to savor unicorn tears, they are delish.

Yes please ... with links to save us time.

[KL Dubey]

^^LOL, at least they could have removed the headline logo "India with RG" to project credibility....

[A_Gupta]

There u go: Time for Lungi-Shiver

BJP 5 seats shy of magic number according to ABP-Nielsen Survey
The ABP-Nielsen Survey has predicted no clear majority for any alliance.
ABP-Nielsen exit pollAlliance Seats
NDA 267
UPA 127
Others 148

Gora hath fa*ted. Please note for future reference.

What Gora said in 2014, pre-poll
https://www.outlookindia.com/blog/story ... a-119/3216

9 March 2014
ABP News-Nielsen Op Poll: BJP 209, Cong 91; NDA 233, UPA 119

[Ardeshir]

^^LOL, at least they could have removed the headline logo "India with RG" to project credibility....

What credibility, hainjee?

[A_Gupta]

The Gora revises:
https://www.thequint.com/elections/niel ... prediction


ABP News-Nielsen exit poll has predicted that the BJP-led NDA will cross the halfway mark and get 277 seats of the 542 seats. The UPA is expected to win 130 seats.

[Singha]

Alhilesh is the new mahdi since the old mahdi has feet of clay. note the sly sentence in the end.

barkha dutt
@BDUTT
6h6 hours ago
More
Whatever the result one neta who can be optimistic is @yadavakhilesh - he hunkered down & focused on a non-bllitzy, grounded campaign & kept ego aside. Even Modi voters I met say they will vote for him in assembly

[Rahul M]

So both Axis and Today’s Chanakya give NDA 350+ . And multiple others over 300 . Time for a poll of exit polls now that everyone’s numbers are out .

PP is giving 304 to BJP .

[KL Dubey]

Aayegi To Urmila Hi !

Certainly seems like an "acceptable face".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urmila_Matondkar#/media/File:Urmila_at_kjo_bday.jpg

[pankajs]

^^LOL, at least they could have removed the headline logo "India with RG" to project credibility....

What credibility, hainjee?

Nahi ... nahi ... Notice "conducted by #WIthRG Volunteers"

Pappu volunteers conducting poll within themselves and their family ... is the bestest way to conduct an "impartial* polls.

[Nalla Baalu]

^^LOL, at least they could have removed the headline logo "India with RG" to project credibility....

What credibility, hainjee?

For why is NDA placed on top of the table in withRG exit poll? What order is it?

[Atmavik]

Now that rona-e-dhona has started we need a dedicated thread to document there croc tiers