Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion
Posted: 21 May 2019 19:44
Sapil Kibalsudhan wrote:^^ Umm.. who is Zero loss, saar?
<shiver>BJP will lose onlee </shiver>
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Sapil Kibalsudhan wrote:^^ Umm.. who is Zero loss, saar?
<shiver>BJP will lose onlee </shiver>
Sibal - who argued that 2G scam was zero losssudhan wrote:^^ Umm.. who is Zero loss, saar?
<shiver>BJP will lose onlee </shiver>
That's hard to believe, how can you collate data from 59 constituencies even via real-time and come up with the figures (graphics etc) in 30 mins, the polls ended at 6, the exit polls came at 6:30, how is it possible?pankajs wrote:Exit poll? These days everyone has prediction model codes running on servers. You feed the data and your output is ready in minutes. You do some manual check and you are ready.
At least that is my impression after skimming through one blog post written by 543 guy.
Ardeshir wrote: Sapil Kibal
Thanks, Gentle Rakshaks!putnanja wrote: Sibal - who argued that 2G scam was zero loss
EVM is good when Mamata Banerjee became West Bengal chief minister twice and Amarinder Singh became Punjab chief minister. If they win, EVM is good. But when there is an expectation that we will win because people of this country want Narendra Modi to be prime minister again, then EVM is unreliable. BJP condemn their (opposition) conduct and will tell humbly to accept their defeat with grace: Ravi Shankar Prasad
Read PP's blog ...rhytha wrote:That's hard to believe, how can you collate data from 59 constituencies even via real-time and come up with the figures (graphics etc) in 30 mins, the polls ended at 6, the exit polls came at 6:30, how is it possible?pankajs wrote:Exit poll? These days everyone has prediction model codes running on servers. You feed the data and your output is ready in minutes. You do some manual check and you are ready.
At least that is my impression after skimming through one blog post written by 543 guy.
I would run if someone asked me that. Or respond "Yo Momma" if I dared. And THEN run.Hu did u vote 4 pls?
There goes another BeeJayPee!
BTW, we are in the cheap mobile data era. Data collection apps on Phones/Tablets are directly plugged into the servers over the mobile network. There is hardly any lag in the data collection function.pankajs wrote:BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.rhytha wrote:
In raising a hue and a cry about EVMS AND EC, the Ecosystem is priming the pump for carrying on the fight post-results. It is a scorched-earth approach as it is based on destroying the institutions of democratic elections.Vikas wrote:There is a marked attempt by opposition parties to de-legitimize the polls a.k.a Bush-Gore 2000 style.
This whole talk of EVM manipulation and pliant EC is all pointing in that direction. Next you will see them going up in chorus on 'how Modi stole the elections' else Congress was about to form govt with help from all the regional parties. This may get accentuated if Amethi is lost and if BJP makes big inroads in eastern coast states.
This still may not bring people on the street since most anyways got the govt they wanted, it creates ruckus and friction in the polity of the system with constant barbing and at each others throat. It forces people to be 'with-us' or 'against-us' whereas Indians generally are very accommodative and political ideology doesn't define them. The last time people were on the street protesting nationwide was during emergency and it was more against the high handedness of the govt than just emergency.
I believe some of the Cong luminaries have landed abroad to get directions on waging war via this slogan of delegitimate elections. The only problem with this plan is that while they are planning to spread Arab Spring, earth beneath congress feet is being reduced on daily basis along with NCP/TMC/JDS. With 10 state govts with opposition, This whole charade maybe hard to pull off but gives a chance to Anti-Indic forces to get a minor playing role.
** All this assumes that election results will be in line with Exit polls and BJP alone will be at about ~300 seats
https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/co ... 48228.htmlUlanBatori wrote:Withdraw suit means it can be reinstated any time. Loaded gun more effective than one that is fired. Basically free hand now.
Or maybe he knows that Prime Minister RaGa is coming soon.
I think the exit poll is a hit job by the msm for trp. I am unable to find any data or methodology that they have used for exit poll.pankajs wrote:Read PP's blog ...rhytha wrote:
That's hard to believe, how can you collate data from 59 constituencies even via real-time and come up with the figures (graphics etc) in 30 mins, the polls ended at 6, the exit polls came at 6:30, how is it possible?
BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.
At a pre-determined cut off, say at 5:30 you take a snapshot of the model projection and do a manual cross-check for the next 30 minutes and you are ready by 6:00 pm. How's that?
So it might not factor in the "last" 30 mins of data but it doesn't matter in the overall scheme.
He was under pressure from BJP so that the focus is partially turned towards Rahul Gandhi during the campaign period . Now that the elections are over there is no need for the suit.sudhan wrote:Sure, but why pull out now? The clown prince had put him out to dry.. and to be frank the allegations were quite dramatic.. I would have kept on and watched the idiot squirm like a worm..Karan M wrote:
Elections are over. Zero loss would have informed him the repeated references to him by Clown Prince would stop as well.
I remember the same Ambani meeting the queen mother and other CONcroaches after the 2004 BJP debacle.. grapevine at that time was that he was there to assure the UPA of his family's support.. Come NDA govt, gets kicked in the testimonials .. serves him right.. all the more reason to have persisted with the case IMHO
AFAIK, the VVPAT machine prints on thermal paper and the ink fades away in about six months or so.Sachin wrote:This counting VVPAT business. Let the EC be very sure on the process. They are basically counting chits of papers which can even fly away in the wind, or can be destroyed (making the tally go wrong). The "seculars" have got some conditions signed off by the EC on counting and tallying of VVPAT.
Being the cynic I am, I feel that sabotage of elections may come through VVPAT.
IIRC, from some previous election cycles. ONE polling agencies was talking of having a touch enabled tablet based app for this kind of work. They would orient the screen away from themselves and towards the voter to assure them of total confidentiality of their choice.UlanBatori wrote:Hu did u vote 4 pls?
Kapil Sibalsudhan wrote:^^ Umm.. who is Zero loss, saar?
<shiver>BJP will lose onlee </shiver>
You are free to believe whatever you want .... BUTrhytha wrote:I think the exit poll is a hit job by the msm for trp. I am unable to find any data or methodology that they have used for exit poll.pankajs wrote: Read PP's blog ...
BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.
At a pre-determined cut off, say at 5:30 you take a snapshot of the model projection and do a manual cross-check for the next 30 minutes and you are ready by 6:00 pm. How's that?
So it might not factor in the "last" 30 mins of data but it doesn't matter in the overall scheme.
for example take a look at this
"For example, we do not know whether the roughly 1,400 sample per constituency which India Today-Axis claims, has a balanced proportion of different social groups."
https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis ... CvOdP.html
I think its better to follow the pre-poll survey from lokniti which provides more detailed info on their survey.
https://www.lokniti.org/media/upload_fi ... ay%204.pdf
.So lets not fall for it and take it with a bucket of salt
Without broader details of methodology published openly, these exit polls are not reliable.UlanBatori wrote:Good to remember, again, the EXIT Polls are not the recognized election of India.
What exactly is an Exit Poll and how is it conducted? Does someone stand with a counter outside the booth and ask:I would run if someone asked me that. Or respond "Yo Momma" if I dared. And THEN run.Hu did u vote 4 pls?
Hence the question. Or do they have someone sit by the wayside and count:There goes another BeeJayPee!
desperate to cloud the counting process and cast aspersions to derail the results.UlanBatori wrote:Election 2019: All 5 VVPATs Should Be Counted First, 22 Opposition Parties Tell Election Commission
Desperate effort to buy time: wonder what they think can happen given a few more days' suspense.
ANI Verified account @ANI ANI Retweeted ANI
Roshan Baig, Congress when asked if Siddaramaiah is responsible for the collapse of the govt: KC Venugopal is a buffoon. I feel sorry for my leader Rahul Gandhi ji. Buffoons like Venugopal, the arrogant attitude of Siddaramaiah & the flop show of Gundu Rao...The result is this.
Roshan Baig, Congress when asked if Congress should've thought before giving portfolios in state: Portfolios were sold. How can I blame Kumaraswamy for it? He wasn't allowed to function. From day 1 Siddaramaiah said 'I'm going to be CM'.You've gone to their doorstep to form govt!
Karnataka meltdown: Congress leader Roshan Baig trains guns at Siddaramaiah, calls KC Venugopal a buffoon[/b
MAY 21, 2019
Senior Karnataka Congress leader Roshan Baig has triggered a new controversy after he hit out on the party in-charge KC Venugopal and called him a buffoon. Baig even levelled allegations that the portfolios in the Karnataka state assembly were ‘sold’. Training his guns on former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, he said, “From day 1 Siddaramaiah said ‘I’m going to be CM’. You’ve gone to their doorstep to form govt!”
Roshan Baig, Congress when asked if Siddaramaiah is responsible for the collapse of the govt: KC Venugopal is a buffoon. I feel sorry for my leader Rahul Gandhi ji. Buffoons like Venugopal, the arrogant attitude of Siddaramaiah & the flop show of Gundu Rao…The result is this. https://t.co/WOxFkk9enD
— ANI (@ANI) May 21, 2019
The Exit Polls on Sunday, that painted a grim picture for the fortunes of the coalition government of JDS and Congress in the state of Karnataka, has finally brought the simmering discontent within the Congress party out in the open.
Calling the in-charge of Congress Karnataka, KC Venugopal a buffoon, Baig asserted that the arrogance of Siddaramiah and the “flop show” of the party president Gundu Rao is why people have been disenchanted with the coalition government in the state. Baig made the remarks in the reference to the exit poll results that forecasted BJP sweep in the state.
Baig also alleged that the portfolios in the Karnataka coalition government were sold. He further added that Kumaraswamy cannot be held responsible for the failure of the coalition government because he was not allowed to function. According to Baig Siddaramiah asserted to be the CM of the state since day 1 of the formation of the government.
Roshan Baig, Congress leader: No seats were given to Christians and only one seat was given to Muslims in Karnataka, they were ignored. I’m upset with this, we have been used. pic.twitter.com/RvJnia3gdV
— ANI (@ANI) May 21, 2019
Baig has been relentless in attacking the Congress leadership in Karnataka. He also said that he has been unhappy with the party as no seats were given to the Christians and only 1 seat was given to Muslims. Baig alleged that the interests of the minorities, in contrast to the promises made, were ignored and they were used only to garner votes.
The rift between the Congress and the JDS was widening as both parties tried to outdo the other for the struggle to grab power in the coalition government. The coalition was formed against the wishes of the grass-roots cadres of both the parties who had fought bitterly during the state elections. Karnataka chief minister HD Kumaraswamy has expressed his laments many times over how he has been reduced to a clerk due to Congress interference in the governance.
Amidst the widening rift between the two parties, the forecast from the exit polls has delivered a body blow to the fate of the coalition government in the state. It is now widely speculated that if the exit polls turn out true, the coalition government in the state will collapse and many other disgruntled Congress leaders might come out to openly attack their state party leadership and switch over to the opposition.
Don't worry too much at pet strawmen.Singha wrote:the J-word brother.
its the big J in rahul mehtas NBJP pantheon.
Data will need to be cleaned and prepped before feeding into the model. Poll companies probably collected data after each phase. Phase 7 might be an approximation or less accurate.pankajs wrote:BTW, we are in the cheap mobile data era. Data collection apps on Phones/Tablets are directly plugged into the servers over the mobile network. There is hardly any lag in the data collection function.pankajs wrote:BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.
The data is on the server as soon as it is entered on the phone app either by the voter or the agent.
Again, only my impression of the scenario.
First of all CBN is hardly a leader after 11 April having lost his majority. He is walking on thin ice and pretending to marshal a coalition. Besides he talks of Democracy is in danger and does his utmost to cast doubt on Election process. Apparently he is threatening to run riot on 23 May. Most likely Jagan will be sworn in on same day so there is no law and order problem.hnair wrote:The vvpat issue is troubling. The opposition seem to be marshaled by CBN to cast doubts on election process itself. This is a very dangerous precedent. The voting machines worked well when the opposition did well last year. What changed this time other than an unfavorable exit poll?
If the results favor NDA, brace yourself for a long and shady assault on India’s fairly decent election process itself. Mr Lavasa also is not helping this with his stance. The situation is ripe for a civil unrest fomented by external forces, for the incoming govt.
This questioning the electoral process seem similar to the script that is being used in Venezuela, to dislodge the current president
EC knows what it is doing. So let them make a ruling.abhijitm wrote:Is there clear guidline from EC on what if a mismatch found between sample EVN and VVPAT? Many were asking a clear instruction during the election. Don't remember EC issued any. Did they? This drama could have been avoided otherwise.
Why? He can be of more service as a media voice, now that he owns his network free and clear.Singha wrote:Arnab has declared total war on the oppn EVM whiners.
he was shouting that he demands allegience to the constitution of india, that silicon valley turds and SM non-entities running smear campaigns will be punished and that CIA will not choose the next govt and PM of india!
he has grown his hair longer and looks more impressive now. a bit more rhetorical flourishes and head tilts. a promising rajya sabha MP imo.
give the man a ticket.