2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66605
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 21:01

Realist_Indian
@India_Progress
Follow Follow @India_Progress
More Realist_Indian Retweeted Realist_Indian
So NCP is power grab of Maratha sugar barons. TDP is power grab by rich Kamma businessmen. Same with RJD. That’s what they hate Modi as Modi can get cross caste vote. Haryana’s Jat parties demolished by Modi.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:02

Karan M wrote:So the 7 decade long left-INC project to have Indians become a mix of deracinated wogs acting like brown sahibs, and be caught up in their nice little caste buckets is being sabotaged by the rise of a counter. A nationalist force which is stressing on folks to hold a strong center together, away from sub-regionalist fiefdoms.

Truly a strategic nightmare for the west, and PRC - all would have been happy that india remained a backward fiefdom and was gradually being subverted from within.


I suspect the recall of the PRC envoy is mark of displeasure for numerous failures in shaping the Indian politicians and Dokhlam incident.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:06

nachiket wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:
Saar according to my taxiwalla and chaiwalla inputs from SoBo, Deora is heading for a narrow victory. We shall see.

That is my chaiwallah info as well unfortunately. BJP will lose onlee :(( :((


Mandar Sawant whom I trust says Deora will lose despite Mukesh Ambani endorsing him.
Lets see.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:11

Singha wrote:SS has always been a problematic NDA member due to their supremos periodic tirades against AS and NM. its important to meet such satraps face to face to gauge intent.


Shiv Sena identity is based on anti-Gujarati.
And BJP is run by two Gujaratis.
Will take some time for it to change.
There is a darker secret that Shivaji maharaja bhagawat against Mughal rule and subsequent Peshwas had only a partial support of Marathas.
A significant set of Marathas supported the Mughals and Nizam, and British.
It still continues in 96 clan.
Kaal explained it very clearly.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:15

nachiket wrote:Cvoter is actually giving the NDA a majority. ABP poll was with Nielsen who came up with the 267 figure. Quint has them confused.

Image


Nachiket, Thanks.

Neilsen was flawed poll as the pollster deleted many pro BJP responses as he did not believe them.
So there is sampling bias in his poll.
And the moron had the guts to admit on TV.
Shows the arrogance of these suckers.
BTW BJP has three vast polling machines not connected to each other.
All show confidence.

Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1072
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 22 May 2019 21:16

ramana wrote:
Nachiket, Thanks.

Neilsen was flawed poll as the pollster deleted many pro BJP responses as he did not believe them.
So there is sampling bias in his poll.
And the moron had the guts to admit on TV.
Shows the arrogance of these suckers.
BTW BJP has three vast polling machines not connected to each other.
All show confidence.

Not just the guts, but also an 'upper hand on this matter' kind of explanation, followed by downhill skiing to update the poll with 10 seats. :rotfl:

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:17

Manish_Sharma wrote:I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.


If so very good of him and the media should understand what he is saying. Mostly fantasy.

Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 7410
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sachin » 22 May 2019 21:18

ramana wrote:Shiv Sena identity is based on anti-Gujarati.

Add to it the Madrassis (South Indians) as well. But here again looks like things have changed, because I hear that there are Shiv Sena Shaka pramukhs who are Keralites (know a case in Ahmed Nagar side).

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7052
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 22 May 2019 21:28

ramana wrote:Kishan Reddy did not have the stature to be selected as MP candidate in SecBad a highly urban seat. Especially after losing the MLA seat. He didn't put up much of a fight. Unlike Bandi Sanjay in Karimnagar.
We will see reshaping of the TG BJP after 23 may.


I think Kishan Reddy will be able to ride the Modi 2.0 wave in Secunderabad (highly urban seat) to bag one for BJP in Telangana. From Telangana, I actually expect zero seats. So if it crosses >2 this time, it is a big win for BJP!

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:30

darshan wrote:
Ardeshir wrote:I wouldn't put it past The Liar and Photoshop Bhushan and party to try and pull something like this.

Possible. I see it as that this is what real patriotic governance looks like that the enemies whether internal or external have to go through these routes now to get information instead of just making calls to their agents.

Opindia link:
https://www.opindia.com/2019/05/breakin ... is-suburb/



I think its Pak ISI trying to help Congress.
Probably hired a failed Pak migrant to do this job.


I have reasons to suspect.
Its not easy to know which office to burgle especially only the project office run by IAF in Paris.
That's an intel operation.
Then there are many Pak migrant gangs in and around London and Paris monuments.
Easy to keep old Afghan jihad dregs in Europe as Army of the Night to be activated as needed.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7052
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 22 May 2019 21:32

sudhan wrote:God, nerves are getting to me..

BJP will lose onlee :(( :((


#AyegaTohModiJi

Question is the scale of the victory. I can say with 100% confidence that BJP by itself will win 240 seats. Can it cross 300 on its own? Can NDA give us 360+ seats?

I have 51% confidence that BJP will get @280 seats on its own. Keeping fingers crossed and hoping for 300+

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:34

salaam wrote:MHA issues alert to states over possible violence on counting day
https://twitter.com/indiatoday/status/1 ... 03808?s=21


Very important alert.
Now state DIGS cannot claim ignorance and will be personally responsible for any violence in their respective states.
Realistically I expect only in Vijayawada and Kolkata.

Most likely winner in AP will be sworn in 24 hours after the results are declared.
Cant have motivated people running the Administration and burning files.
Well if Jihadidi allows violence then its reflection on her democratic credentials.

Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1072
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 22 May 2019 21:36

Paki gangs aside, there is also a huge population that came as 'Afghan Refugees' in mainland Europe. Pakis, especially those from the NWFP areas can easily pass off as Afghans.

Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6304
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 22 May 2019 21:39

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:46

Primus wrote:
banrjeer wrote:the rural voter cared to talk about international standing is TREMENDOUS.
I saw some of those clips.

It's not so much whether the standing has improved but the fact that the voter has even cared to bring it up.... It speaks volumes. After that it's only a matter of time the standing rises.

Only a Chaiwala could do it.


There were so many priceless gems in these interviews and news clips during this election cycle. Especially moving was the old man who stated quite astutely that there is something wrong with RaGa mentally. Then there were the old women from Haryana who also mentioned India's standing in the world. There is no doubt that the people have woken up and this is an unstoppable force to reckon with. No matter what happens tomorrow, rural India is a changed place forever.


Let me digress.
In US politics the Presidential candidate hasn't won till the loser makes concession speech. The number of votes, electoral college all are dejure but concession speech is defacto.

Hillary Clinton did not make a concession speech on that night in November 2016 and that led to the defacto approval of the Resistance movement which dragged on till swearing in ceremony.

Naidu is leading the charge in de-legitmizing this election by any means all the while crying Democracy is in danger.
He met her in the Ambani wedding for a whole day.

From exit polls his party has clear lead in only two seats in AP.
Rest of his seats are tough with the edge to Jagan margin within 3%.
This is not strange.
Even in 2014 he won by overall margin of 1 lakh votes in AP.
And this was due to getting Pawan Kalyan support, anger against Congress, and NaMo campaigning for him.
So even his 2014 victory was marginal but he did not understand that.
All his Haj and cross initiatives were to bolster the vote base.
What was the need to build a Haj center in pristine Amaravathi new capital?
My point is he has no jana samudhay even in 2014.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:48

Ardeshir wrote:Paki gangs aside, there is also a huge population that came as 'Afghan Refugees' in mainland Europe. Pakis, especially those from the NWFP areas can easily pass off as Afghans.


Baba those are the ISI dregs.
Army of the Night as insurance for Western support to TSP.

Knives are preferred weapons.

Do a google on number of stabbings in London since Jan 01 2019 and list the accused.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 21:54

kittoo wrote:I know this is me being pessimistic second time here but i am seriously worried about tomorrow. The opposite side has not given up and this CBI thing, ambani dropping the case, nitish uvaach etc do have me worried. Hope we dont pull an Australia tomorrow.


Ok try to think deeper.
RaGa has been constant attack on Anil Ambani, Reliance and NaMo.
Only NaMo was defending the Rafale deal and not one peep came from Ambanis in their own defence!
Shows they were happy to let RaGa attack NaMo even when it hurts their image.
Why?
Ambanis do not want a strong NaMo 2.0.
Look at all the deals and people that Motabhai did all over India in last 12 months.
Its all in Opposition strong holds.
The Ambanis filed the case as a token.
Now they are withdrawing as they know if the it comes to trial the judge could rule in their favor and Congress is held liable.
So this is Motbhai making sure his Congress dukhan does not get shut down.
And NaMo does not have full power.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11153
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 22 May 2019 21:57

Last edited by A_Gupta on 22 May 2019 22:00, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 52570
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 22:00

pankajs wrote:This one suits my *gut* instincts. I did eyeball their numbers for the major states and they seem reasonable and doable.

http://www.elections.in/news/chintamani ... elections/
CHINTAMANI-5DOTS EXIT POLL cum POST-POLL 2019 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS

As we wanted to bring the result to 95% confidence level, we eliminated the seats for the leading party when we felt the result was less than 25,000. This brought the UP seats down to 55, and a few other seats in other States. Thus the final result for BJP at 95% confidence level are as delineated in our final chart, i.e., 285 for BJP, and 347 for NDA. The range is kept at +/- 3%, so that we project BJP at 285 +/- 16 (269-301), and NDA at 347 +/- 17, i.e., 330-364. Similarly, Congress would be at 53 +/- 2 (51-55), and UPA at 89 +/- 3 (86-92).


All surveys except self admitted bogus Nielsen survey are projecting BJP win.

And we have Dilbu back in full form.
So relax and be ready.
its a bit rich from Sitaram Yehchury talking about democracy and Supreme Court and all those pious words.

aylamrin
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 94
Joined: 27 Apr 2019 10:59

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby aylamrin » 22 May 2019 22:19

A_Gupta wrote:Commie threat, from twitter:
https://twitter.com/sitaramyechury/stat ... 61825?s=21
Image



"Twitter for iPhone" :shock:

Now that's a real commie!!

banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 159
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 22 May 2019 22:20

BJP Will loose onleee. :(( :(( :((
dhoti langot and jewels twisted in unholy knot that never unravelled since MMS.

While this drags some rambling is warranted perhaps:

We noted that rural voters are getting conscious of India's international brand due to Namo's efforts.

But whats the reality ...what brand will the "barking butt" brigade and urban folks like us bequeath to these innocents? It's a pop culture that denigrates them.

What drives barking butt and commie-ready types ? Where does their shrill fake morality come from?

It's intellectual vacuum. The are aping the self recrimination and introspection of postcolonialism which is genuinely rooted in the destruction and genocide of indigenous cultures... does this apply to us??? They mindlessly ape and pass this as intellectual profundity for TRP and pats on the back but have nothing original to add.

They are not evil just chutiyas onleee, still they have to be crushed.

tandav
BRFite
Posts: 362
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby tandav » 22 May 2019 22:21

397 NDA anything less is #blow2mudi #dhotishibber #dhotitatter
Modi will lose onlee

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19301
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 22:23

ramana wrote:
pankajs wrote:This one suits my *gut* instincts. I did eyeball their numbers for the major states and they seem reasonable and doable.

http://www.elections.in/news/chintamani ... elections/
CHINTAMANI-5DOTS EXIT POLL cum POST-POLL 2019 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS



All surveys except self admitted bogus Nielsen survey are projecting BJP win.

And we have Dilbu back in full form.
So relax and be ready.
its a bit rich from Sitaram Yehchury talking about democracy and Supreme Court and all those pious words.


It is the entrenched and nurtured commie/naxal ecosystem that has been infiltrated into the body politic and contaminated it from within that is allowing these guys like yecch ury and daniel raja to punch way above their weight.

If not for the ecosystem, both these guys would have been some nondescript, postmen or corrupted bus conductors in some smallish mofussil town

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6355
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Amber G. » 22 May 2019 22:26

This is rather long (2 hour) technical presentation of Indian EVM's .. They are amazingly hack proof and reliable .. The presentation is by the renowned, IIT Prof who was involved in the design etc so it is for the technical people, yet most of the lecture (at least the first hour) can be followed by even non computer-scientists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0ORLvgM8ro&f
(I do have pdf slides of the above lecturer but I don't know if it is suitable to post it here)

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11153
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 22 May 2019 22:28

aylamrin wrote:
"Twitter for iPhone" :shock:

Now that's a real commie!!


Oops, that is likely from my iphone. I wanted to keep the date of Yechury's tweet in the screenshot, and so didn't pay attention to that.

Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1072
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 22 May 2019 22:29

No that's Yechuri's iPhone.

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 16767
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 22 May 2019 22:49

Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

agreed ! Modi will lose onlee !! :(( :(( :((

Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6304
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 22 May 2019 22:52

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2972
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vera_k » 22 May 2019 22:54

I was a bit puzzled at Nitish Kumar statement about not supporting A370 or UCC modifications. But then saw this site predicting the NDA will cross the 2/3rd mark. So lots of positioning under way right now.

ShyamSP
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2266
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 22 May 2019 22:55

disha wrote:
ramana wrote:Kishan Reddy did not have the stature to be selected as MP candidate in SecBad a highly urban seat. Especially after losing the MLA seat. He didn't put up much of a fight. Unlike Bandi Sanjay in Karimnagar.
We will see reshaping of the TG BJP after 23 may.


I think Kishan Reddy will be able to ride the Modi 2.0 wave in Secunderabad (highly urban seat) to bag one for BJP in Telangana. From Telangana, I actually expect zero seats. So if it crosses >2 this time, it is a big win for BJP!


39% voting in Hyderabad and Secunderabad. Which means sophisticated and twitter/FB equipped people voted in twitter/FB poll but not in 2004-vintage dinky EVM. That means people from Telangana districts who do labor work voted for TRS, or mullah-inspired people from Charminar voted for MIM.

Mr Kishan Reddy couldn't win Amberpet as MLA which he won 3 times before, how can he win Secundarabad as he is not like BJP stalwarts like Dattatreya or Bal Reddy.

BJP can win only in those 1-2 places where KCR winked for BJP. BJP win is KCR Biksha. Otherwise, big-O.

kvjayan
BRFite
Posts: 228
Joined: 23 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kvjayan » 22 May 2019 23:03

Ardeshir wrote:
Singha wrote:CHEEN PAK combo, trying to find classified info esp on india specific mods.

I wouldn't put it past The Liar and Photoshop Bhushan and party to try and pull something like this.


May be a desperate (proxy) effort by Chindu, as its chief has heavily invested in this matter?

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 16767
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 22 May 2019 23:14

In all this hoopla about ECI, a look back at TN Seshan, the man who transformed India's electoral process.
https://twitter.com/InUthdotcom/status/ ... 5961300996

Truly think he and E Sreedharan are two Indians who richly deserve the Bharat Ratna.

Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1072
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 22 May 2019 23:19

rNDTV announcing that Mayawati has just announced that she will support any party that will support her as PM. Ya allah!

OmkarC
BRFite
Posts: 539
Joined: 15 Nov 2016 11:25

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 22 May 2019 23:20

ShyamSP wrote:
disha wrote:
I think Kishan Reddy will be able to ride the Modi 2.0 wave in Secunderabad (highly urban seat) to bag one for BJP in Telangana. From Telangana, I actually expect zero seats. So if it crosses >2 this time, it is a big win for BJP!


39% voting in Hyderabad and Secunderabad. Which means sophisticated and twitter/FB equipped people voted in twitter/FB poll but not in 2004-vintage dinky EVM. That means people from Telangana districts who do labor work voted for TRS, or mullah-inspired people from Charminar voted for MIM.

Mr Kishan Reddy couldn't win Amberpet as MLA which he won 3 times before, how can he win Secundarabad as he is not like BJP stalwarts like Dattatreya or Bal Reddy.

BJP can win only in those 1-2 places where KCR winked for BJP. BJP win is KCR Biksha. Otherwise, big-O.


ShyamSP, I think your statement shows some innate bias against BJP and is aimed at trivializing hard fought victories by local candidates - who are simply relying on cadre strength & addressing people's problems, w/o any financial muscle to back. The TRS-BJP angle is nonexistent and figment of some Andhra TDP imagination - will KCR betray his own daughter to help BJP ? Or help a rival candidate in his own parliamentary constituency out of this imaginary love for Modi ?

If anything, KCR likely has tacit arrangements with congress to demolish a few tough candidates like DK Aruna, who is not on good terms with state congress leadership as well as TRS.

BJP has become a major contender on its own - look at mass rallies and how farmers, rural youth are backing the party in at least a few seats. If NDA can win on its own w/o KCR's help, it will be neck & neck next time around.

Added later: Kishan Reddy lost Amberpet by ~ 1000 votes because of TRS, at Owaisi's behest, decided to wipe out BJP from Twin-citiesby pumping enormous money & liquor.. Kishan Reddy unnecessarily tried to "Vajpayee"ify himself with pointless remarks that he is a soft-Hindutva guy and ok with Beef eating (perhaps he said something else and was misquoted by media).. this turned off some core voters as well. But now there is deep regret at not voting him in, as the local MLA is useless.. BTW, there is a new mosque demolition issue in that constituency which is leading to lots of tensions - apparently an old structure was damaged by GHMC which is claimed as an old mosque.. MIM is bringing in goons from old city to launch protests, hindu youth are being threatened by police to not gather - there is a lot of communal tension being whipped up.
Last edited by OmkarC on 22 May 2019 23:46, edited 1 time in total.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6834
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 23:22

vera_k wrote:I was a bit puzzled at Nitish Kumar statement about not supporting A370 or UCC modifications. But then saw this site predicting the NDA will cross the 2/3rd mark. So lots of positioning under way right now.

JD(U) guys in the NDTV's and other shows about exit polls all repeated that the JDU does not agree with the BJP on UCC, Article 370 and one guy even mentioned triple talaq.

OmkarC
BRFite
Posts: 539
Joined: 15 Nov 2016 11:25

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 22 May 2019 23:22

ramana wrote:
OmkarC wrote:
I am more interested in TG.. they are giving BJP 3 seats - 2 of which are as per expectations, third is a surprise.

- Nizamabad, massive if BJP pulls this off as its against KCR's daughter, the Axis poll lists BJP/TRS as popular parties and as a tough seat. Disagree - its a very very tough seat. With >50% chance of BJP victory. The local candidate has been grooming this seat for a while, spending time with farmers, he even used his own funds to set up free medical clinics for poor children for several years now. He comes from a political family, his dad is former state congress president & now leader of TRS.. and has enough financial muscle, community support, etc. KCR's daughter apparently ignored farmer's plight for the past 5 yrs and there is serious farmer anger. Fingers crossed.

- Karimnagar, this was KCR's own seat for 3 times in a row. But somehow the local BJP candidate has managed to galvanize and build mass following among rural youth. A strong Hindutva candidate, he has had one too many verbal duels with Owaisi saab and even his house was stoned after he lost MLA elections by MIM goons a few months back. The Axis poll says its not a tough seat and he would win. I would've agreed with this exit poll if not for the money power of both the congress & TRS rivals. Kudos to Shah on studying the pulse, identifying this person & reward him with an MP seat candidature.

-The third one they predict is Adilabad, which is in the tribal belt, the local BJP candidate is a genuine tribal activist but financially weak compared to his stronger congress, TRS opponents. The exit poll mentions its a BJP vs cong fight, while my opinion its a TRS vs Cong fight. Disagree with their estimate as the party doesn't have strong cadre here like the other two.

Additionally:
-Agree w/ exit poll prediction on Secunderabad. BJP will lose their incumbent seat to TRS by a huge margin.
-Disagree with the exit poll on Mahboobnagar that predicts an easy walkover for TRS - the congress defected BJP candidate has good grip on the district and congress has a reasonable candidate as well - its a 3-way fight. BJP candidate has ~34% chance, compared to her rivals.



OmkarC, Thanks for the thoughtful commentary on teh BJP prospects.
Was in BJP WA groups during Assy elections and watched Bandi Sanjay grow in stature in Karimnagar.
Yes MIM goons attacked his house.
One blot on KCR.

Kishan Reddy did not have the stature to be selected as MP candidate in SecBad a highly urban seat. Especially after losing the MLA seat. He didn't put up much of a fight. Unlike Bandi Sanjay in Karimnagar.
We will see reshaping of the TG BJP after 23 may.


Thanks Ramana garu. In the battle of "Money bags vs people's leaders" let's see who wins.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19301
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 23:24

potato and onion prices that are so politically sensitive are holding and have been holding very steady in an extremely narrow band for the longest time now.

I cannot recall any crises due to these staples during Modi's tenure

these prices used to behave like a yoyo during the long tenures of some pawarful peoples with these peoples raking it in by the bucketful every single year.

the prices of dals are also quiet and steady.

they used these rigged prices to create turmoil in the markets, rig the prices as well as the quantity available so as to benefit both ways.

no wonder these guys are yearning for the return of the good old days of their personal "market" economy and where they managed to rule like emperors, irrespective of who was in power.

Modi has changed all that

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6834
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 23:29

Sachin wrote:
ramana wrote:Shiv Sena identity is based on anti-Gujarati.

Add to it the Madrassis (South Indians) as well. But here again looks like things have changed, because I hear that there are Shiv Sena Shaka pramukhs who are Keralites (know a case in Ahmed Nagar side).

Their original identity is basically son-of-the-soil regionalism where all non-Marathi migrants are considered bad. The principal targets of their ire have changed over the years - "South Indians", Gujaratis, "North Indians" they haven't spared anyone.

It has changed in recent times because it does not resonate anymore even in their core voter base and it never had much use outside of Mumbai anyway.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19301
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 23:30

nachiket wrote:
vera_k wrote:I was a bit puzzled at Nitish Kumar statement about not supporting A370 or UCC modifications. But then saw this site predicting the NDA will cross the 2/3rd mark. So lots of positioning under way right now.

JD(U) guys in the NDTV's and other shows about exit polls all repeated that the JDU does not agree with the BJP on UCC, Article 370 and one guy even mentioned triple talaq.


this guy needs to be sorted out once and for all. he is just like a cuckoo and this is his political strategy

Cuckoo’s are a classical example of birds who show brood parasitism, i.e. they lay eggs in the nests of other birds. In this case, the nest of a crow. It is observed that these cuckoo eggs hatch faster than the crow’s, and that is equally visible to the crow mother, but they don’t react to it - there’s a behavioral theory called “Mafia Tactics”

In “Mafia Tactics” what happens is, when the cuckoo lays its eggs in the nest of the host bird (here a crow), the crow has basically two options:

Allow the cuckoo egg to hatch and feed them, along with its own chicks

Push the cuckoo egg out of its nest.

The down point here (Mafia Tactic) is that the cuckoos are always keeping an eye on the host nest, and when they see that the egg(s) is pushed out - they tend to destroy the crow’s nest.

Thus the dilemma, should she (crow) allow the cuckoo chick to grow or should she use her energy again (after the nest destruction; keep in mind nest building and egg laying requires energy) and spend precious energy in building a new nest.
Last edited by chetak on 22 May 2019 23:32, edited 1 time in total.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6167
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 22 May 2019 23:32

They used to control the mandis through APMC which has been dismantled in several states most notably MH.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: khatvaanga, Vips and 49 guests