Bharat Rakshak

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 12:39**

^^ I read though his tweets and don't see any anger in them. He is posting the usual data stuff. One thing he has posted is that AP and TG are a bigg Zero for BJP.
It seems like it is hanging in balance for now.
It's too early to make any predictions. Lets not get too nervous.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 12:42**

abhijitm wrote:Usually PP posts angry rhetorics ....

I have been following him since before 2014.. if he is certain of BJP loss he does give angry tweets.. sort of suggesting what BJP should have done.
However, in this case (of First phase) it seems data he has received so far is not conclusive.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 12:56**

Other than drawing blank in AP and TS, don't see any 'angry' tweets.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 13:27**

Nachiket ji

You are most likely right. . But it's possible to improve in bigger MP constituency if Hindus vote is consolidated in favour of BJP.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 13:47**

Yagnasri wrote:If Western UP gives good numbers of BJP just like last time good. But we can not presume that Eastern UP will be easy. SP+BSP is a formidable force which will united Muslim votes alone with anti-BJP votes one cannot be taken lightly. It is here the good admin of Yogi and NM will help along with useless Congress cutting votes. I also think we may be around 50 in UP. More seats may be difficult to win.

saar some general view points :
1. Caste is very big factor in these lands, sometime even bigger than Hindu religion itself.
2. Whatever vote BJP gets will be only for Modi, sadly none of the sitting MP's have any hold on their constituencies including Gen. V K Singh.
3. Voting in hindu areas is less around 60% max, compare that to peaceful areas which vote heavily.
4. Congress remained outside Gathbandhan only to divide bjp votes

Meerut - Sitting bjp mp got very lucky to get ticket. Congress fielded another upper caste candidate which will cut some minor upper caste votes. Among peaceful's there are two factions - Akhalq and Qureshi's, both bitter rivals, that should help bjp.(Incidentally there was some big fighting between them just before the day of election). So overall, it's difficult but possible.

Baghpat - "Extremely" difficult for Satya Pal Singh here. He is fighting against the son of Ajit Singh here. Hardly visits his constituency. Jats in 2014 voted en masse in favor of bjp, however this time not all will vote for bjp. Add to that good % of peaceful here.

Saharanpur - Raghav lakhanpal is popular. Has his own vote base apart from Mr. Modi. Reasonable chance here, just as Meerut.

muzaffarnagar - Again good % of peacefuls alongside jats. Congress hasn't fielded any candidate to help RLD. Looks like division in jat vote. Difficult for bjp.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 14:23**

Last time, Most of North/West was swept by Modi wave. After 5 years, I would assume that there is Hindu consolidation unless voters haven't seen any benefit of voting for a Pro-Hindu candidate and forming a big powerful block.
Elitist People like Ajit Singh or his son Jayant have nothing to show to the common voters, heck even Charan singh legacy is buried 6 feed under. They are like small time fixers converting into a political party.
So what pull does a ordinary voter has to not vote for Modi Ji but some corrupt Gathbandhan hopping clown.

PS: 2 of my Jat friends would vote for congress again in Harayana, just to bring back a Jat CM, state be damned.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 14:36**

Vikas wrote:PS: 2 of my Jat friends would vote for congress again in Harayana, just to bring back a Jat CM, state be damned.

That's fine, they'll bear the first brunt of 'multiculturalism' and 'tolerance'. As GoT line goes, wish them good fortunes for the wars to come.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 14:39**

Muppalla wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:Nature of fault and glitches and fixing and lack of proper handling or training are different from replacement. Obviously EVMs that were broken by throwing on the floor by voters, cadre, and candidates need replacement. There were many booths started way late and they were way more than 43.

Here it is said 116 EVMs had issue in one district alone.
===
https://www.thehindu.com/elections/andh ... 796495.ece
...
6 pm

Anantapur district registered 62.08% voting till 5 p.m. 116 EVMs malfunctioned and of them 50 had to be replaced, while the remaining were repaired. Voting was delayed between 30 minutes to 3 hours.
...
But the voting was allowed even until 12 midnight until the last vote was casted.

All 3 parts (ballot unit, controller, and vvpat) should be in a working condition for the voting to take place. There were a total of 4583 malfunctioning equipment in AP yesterday which is highly unusual. In some booths the polling went on past 3:00 AM. Voting should have been adjourned in such cases where there were long delays due to malfunctioning equipment.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 15:35**

Whatever happened to that BJP MP who was caught beating the BJP MLA with his shoe. Did he get renominated for the ticket?

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 16:59**

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/lok- ... 36511.html

Opinion poll surveys predicting chances of an electoral breakthrough for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha election in Kerala has sparked speculations about chances of cross-voting against the party candidates in constituencies where its winning chances are high.

Speculations are most rife in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency where the latest AC Nielson-Mathrubhumi News survey has predicted a clear edge for BJP nominee Kummanam Rajasekharan. The party is also expecting possibilities of cross-voting in the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency where the survey has found a close fight between K Surendran and sitting Congress MP Anto Antony.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 17:27**

abhijitm wrote:Usually PP posts angry rhetorics if things not going in BJP favors. Some of his recent tweets gives glimpse of what's happened.

I could be wrong in reading him though. But a triumphant mind usually post happy and optimistic tweets.

I check his Twitter handle several times a day, haven't seen a single angry tweet in weeks, In fact there is jubilation in his tweets, specifically regarding UP, Bihar, Bengal and Orissa. I challenge you to show a single angry tweet.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 17:30**

Sometimes I feel PP’s analysis fosters complacency:( Karnataka election broke my heart

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 17:50**

suryag wrote:Sometimes I feel PP’s analysis fosters complacency:( Karnataka election broke my heart

It should be taken as some information value. Nothing more.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 18:12**

Seems congress has only one AIM that's to cut into bjp votes so others have bigger chance chances to win. It seems except Rae-bareli and amethi they're ready to lose each seat as far as they can make sure that BJP loses on these 228 seats too.

In Meerut they're putting Harendra Agarwal opposite BJP's sitting mp Rajendra Agarwal so Hindu votes, specially business caste votes are split and instead of 3 muslim candidates like 2014 it's 1 candidate of BSP.

Same way on Ghaziabad seat muslim candidate against General VK Singh, but they have put hindu candidate Dolly singh to split hindu votes.

That's why PPatil is wondering how congress seems to be heading for even lower numbers than 2014 for yesterday's 91 seats.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 18:30**

Yes the INC’s goal is to split the Hindu vote in UP. I don’t expect the BJP to get more than 36 seats out of UP. There are also a lot of bureaucrats and their families in Delhi who are also upset that Modi has taken away their gravy train. Rajasthan will be mixed so net loss there.

If the vote percentages are leas than 66%, expect a loss of seats for the BJP. In MP and CG lots of middle class did not vote during state elections. Hopefully they come out.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 19:10**

I have a question for APites. BJP will need a friend in AP now that CBN has shown his true colors. How is Pawan Kalyan? Is he also an EJ? I see his third or fourth wife is a Russian christian and pictures of him praying in churches.

The news from WB is so far good although some rigging was attempted.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 19:31**

Hi

What do def gurus here think of the article in Print by iyerwal suggesting that Congress has been better (aggressive) at national security than BJP. He gave some points about covert ops after 26/11 which are good points. It would have been better had he cited some credible sources for the same. Would love to hear views of oldies on this

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 19:49**

Only LBS, Indira Gandhi and PVNR. Not for last 20 yrs specially the current dispensation.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 19:51**

PK is useless as a leader except as a crowd puller. He is on record saying he is baptized, so another version of EJ babu / born Xian jagan. AP needs someone who can consolidate Hindu votes like Yogiji. Once TDP is broken completely, BJP should subsume whatever is left of both JS and TDP, just like it is doing to INC in TG.

Supratik wrote:I have a question for APites. BJP will need a friend in AP now that CBN has shown his true colors. How is Pawan Kalyan? Is he also an EJ? I see his third or fourth wife is a Russian christian and pictures of him praying in churches.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 20:03**

Hmm looks like AP is EJ-land. Meanwhile in KL.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/kerala ... travancore

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 20:19**

khatvaanga wrote:PK is useless as a leader except as a crowd puller. He is on record saying he is baptized, so another version of EJ babu / born Xian jagan. AP needs someone who can consolidate Hindu votes like Yogiji. Once TDP is broken completely, BJP should subsume whatever is left of both JS and TDP, just like it is doing to INC in TG.

Supratik wrote:I have a question for APites. BJP will need a friend in AP now that CBN has shown his true colors. How is Pawan Kalyan? Is he also an EJ? I see his third or fourth wife is a Russian christian and pictures of him praying in churches.

PK is a nut case. He tries to mimic Che Guvera. He does not know the difference of his film persona and real life

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 20:27**

Dileep/Sachin garu what is your analysis on the swarajya report ?

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 20:43**

khatvaanga wrote:PK is useless as a leader except as a crowd puller. He is on record saying he is baptized, so another version of EJ babu / born Xian jagan. AP needs someone who can consolidate Hindu votes like Yogiji. Once TDP is broken completely, BJP should subsume whatever is left of both JS and TDP, just like it is doing to INC in TG.

Supratik wrote:I have a question for APites. BJP will need a friend in AP now that CBN has shown his true colors. How is Pawan Kalyan? Is he also an EJ? I see his third or fourth wife is a Russian christian and pictures of him praying in churches.

Would not discuss AP politics as per forum admin request - but agree w/ others: PK is the B-team of CBN and an old school leftist. A chunk of his cadre are youth, who seem to be pro-Modi at the centre, ironically (will not translate into votes, however).

I have more hope for Telangana.. they have good leaders who rose from grass root + recent defections of a couple of good mid-rung leaders from congress.. despite any electoral losses right now mostly due to KCR's welfare schemes/freebies, I see passion & energy of cadre - even in villages. There is some casteism, but relatively less than AP. Hindu identity is strong as well.

All that needs to happen is for an NDA govt to form in 2019 w/o TRS as coalition partner, Congress will melt down and BJP will naturally emerge as the main opposition party. That's why I am hoping that if NDA falls short - BJP can take Jagan's help rather than TRS. Dont see similar cadre or structure in Andhra, nor do I dont share other folks optimism that post TDP meltdown, Andhra is ripe for BJP as the mindset is more regional in scope.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 21:23**

Been a long time lurker, was more than happy to soak in the knowledge of the seers here.

Unfortunately, casualty of this general election discussion here

"All that needs to happen is for an NDA govt to form in 2019 w/o TRS as coalition partner, Congress will melt down and BJP will naturally emerge as the main opposition party. That's why I am hoping that if NDA falls short - BJP can take Jagan's help rather than TRS. Dont see similar cadre or structure in Andhra, nor do I dont share other folks optimism that post TDP meltdown, Andhra is ripe for BJP as the mindset is more regional in scope." - Above comment by Omkar C

I believe, CBN has been one person, who has literally transformed the state of Andhra Pradesh (combined) from a predominantly Agri economy to a decently prosperous industrial state. He can be pompous, shooting off some non-sense, but his contribution to this part of the country has to be very objectively analyzed. Higher levels of thinking come when people move beyond basic needs, have patience, that transformation is happening and will also be visible in the near term.

2014 - BJP allying with TDP created a huge positive impact for BJP, which was negated by the short sighted war on CBN (casualty was the AP people), looking for some illusionary gains, while the gains would have been better when not targeting him. It might look very chankian, but trust me, it was not.

We are all for national issues, but not at the cost of burning down our own house by electing Jagan Mohan Reddy, who is what BJP has been trying to prop-up. May not be as open and talkative as some of the folks here, but do not de-value or underestimate our sense of nationalism.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 21:32**

Come on folks, move on . AP and TS are over. It may still be politics, but this is not the politics thread. This is specifically the GE2019 thread, and AP and TS are in the rear view mirror now.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 21:41**

A case for more electoral nuance: It is time India tweaked its first-past-the-post system so that the people’s vote is not so easily hijacked.

So long as Dharmic forces did not have the upper hand and Khangress was in power, the Psuedo liberals and fake seculars had no issues with first-past-the- post-system. But now that Modi/BJP has the advantage these characters are rolling out of the wood and

The author does a lot of usual equal equal to show neutrality but who is she trying to fool?

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 23:00**

suryag wrote:Sometimes I feel PP’s analysis fosters complacency:( Karnataka election broke my heart

he was quite accurate though, especially in voting %. BJP did emerge as SLP there.

BTW, PP has uploaded a very interesting article couple of hours back. muslim voting % in 2019, compared to 2014 is down in 5 out of 8 UP constituencies that went to the polls yesterday, in two of them by double digits. of the other 3, one has increased by 1%, one has same % (no change) and in only one, GB Nagar has the voting % gone up by 7%. leaving rest of details out as they are behind paywall.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 23:10**

If that's true then BJP may have a fighting chance of scoring 2-3 bonus wins

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 23:14**

Manish_Sharma wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Usually PP posts angry rhetorics if things not going in BJP favors. Some of his recent tweets gives glimpse of what's happened.

I could be wrong in reading him though. But a triumphant mind usually post happy and optimistic tweets.
I check his Twitter handle several times a day, haven't seen a single angry tweet in weeks, In fact there is jubilation in his tweets, specifically regarding UP, Bihar, Bengal and Orissa. I challenge you to show a single angry tweet.

I agree. Perhaps 'angry' was not a right choice and I realized it after I read replies. There is some vibe, may be a hint of frustration. Anyway, I could be totall wrong. It is just that these guys "know" the exit polls but can't spill out, and if those exit polls are good then you see jubilance in their tweets which is missing this time.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 23:34**

In 1st phase of UP elections BJP will get 6 or more out of 8. They may even capture all 8 seats.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 23:35**

suryag wrote:Sometimes I feel PP’s analysis fosters complacency:( Karnataka election broke my heart

CG, Rajasthan and MP too. Couldn't get that right.

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 23:49**

abhijitm wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote: I check his Twitter handle several times a day, haven't seen a single angry tweet in weeks, In fact there is jubilation in his tweets, specifically regarding UP, Bihar, Bengal and Orissa. I challenge you to show a single angry tweet.
I agree. Perhaps 'angry' was not a right choice and I realized it after I read replies. There is some vibe, may be a hint of frustration. Anyway, I could be totall wrong. It is just that these guys "know" the exit polls but can't spill out, and if those exit polls are good then you see jubilance in their tweets which is missing this time.

I don't know where you see anger or frustration in his tweets or articles. I don't see. I see a lot of positives. Muslim voting percentage was down. He followed beneficiaries of Modi's schemes 600+/800 families voted for BJP. I don't know if it wins or not but I don't see any bad vibe there. He might still be wrong. He was wrong in all 3 states. Who knows?

Posted: **12 Apr 2019 23:50**

Muppalla wrote:In 1st phase of UP elections BJP will get 6 or more out of 8. They may even capture all 8 seats.

will be awesome ...

Posted: **13 Apr 2019 00:06**

there is wailing from Naidu fans on AP voting re EVM glitches and high number of voters missing on list, accusing Modi-ECI of hatching conspiracy and joining hands with Jagan etc.
As mods said move on .. so coming to next rounds.

High turnover is essential for BJP to make breakthrough, that is thumbrule!
https://twitter.com/muglikar_/status/11 ... 35808?s=21
Dosto
Low turnout = we are in trouble.
Low awareness= trouble

If we miss this opportunity to keep vaampanthi out of power, next ten years of trouble. They will loot us so much and take us back to 1950s. Give your one month for the nation.

in another development Maneka Gandhi inflicts damage on BJP

Code: Select all

https://twitter.com/dhingrasanya/status/1116612266344845312?s=21
“Yeh jeet aapke saath bhi hogi, aapke bina bhi hogi” — Maneka Gandhi telling Muslim don't come wailing if u don't vote me, 9for a job)

Posted: **13 Apr 2019 00:08**

Cong-AAP alliance in Delhi’s 7 seats finally called off after 8 months of bargaining. Chacko says Cong will announce its 7 candidates in the “next day or two. BJP shd make a kill in Delhi now!

Posted: **13 Apr 2019 00:11**

Some thoughts on electoral momentum and information warfare

Momentum is a fundamentally the propagation of enthusiasm amongst the electorate. Every single person who has enthusiasm , is implicitly part of 'momentum'. It's not something you see others doing. It's something you're part of - either as a node propagating the enthusiasm to more people, or ending with you. You can either create and propagate momentum, or it ends at you, and it's left for others continue.

Momentum generally cannot be manufactured. This is because it is propagated organically. There's a limit to the number of people you can enthuse, who aren't particularly excited to begin with, just because you say so. However, when there's an underlying positive sentiment, momentum channelizes that together into a potent force. It's like a tree , with enthusiastic people being branches propagating the message forward to more branches and leaves.

While momentum cannot be artificially created, it can be actively hampered. This is done by vigorous astroturfing - a response to momentum that's built upon grassroots enthusiasm (astroturf, the sports playing surface, has artificial grass texture). It seeks to dampen the natural enthusiasm, by propagating rumors, falsehoods or anything that plays on the sentiment seeking to lead people to question their enthusiasm. Every single person - not just 'supporters' of the other side' are targets of astroturfing. In fact, it is primarily focused on those who are supporters of the momentum. It seeks to lower your enthusiasm to propagate the positive energy.

Why is all this important ? Because those who support a political cause and notice both natural popular enthusiasm for a leader, and active astroturfing by his opponents, are part of either enhancing momentum or being of bringing it to a grinding halt. When that happens, you're a stub, and nothing further branches from you.

It is easier to halt momentum than to construct or propagate it. That is because like physics we aren't collectively always propagating enthusiasm towards a cause. Therefore the active state of being is that people are generally positive, but not so much, that there's an active groundswell of news, excitement and motivation building. Astroturfing down a nascent momentum is far easier than cultivating it.

In 2014, the mainstream press unwittingly fed the momentum. They didn't recognize what they were seeing because it's been a long time since a GE had so much energy. It was newsworthy to them, but fundamentally it was feeding the NaMo momentum. In 2019 they have learned their lesson, because they're keeping an active embargo on poll rally reporting - anything they report ends up feeding popular momentum, therefore avoid reporting on scale and enthusiasm.

It's therefore important to internalize what momentum is, and what astroturfing is. YOU are momentum, not someone else. Remember the old milforum conversation with a senior Russian scientist regarding (I think early Su-30 MKI/Lyulka Saturn) transfer of technology. He responded "what is technology ? Not these pieces of metal. I am technology. I know how to build it this way and why." Astroturfing is directed at your enthusiasm, and the less motivated, and more confused/worried/unsure you are, the more effective that astroturfing is.

Don't be part of the problem by pausing to deal with astroturfing. Don't convey negative energy based entirely upon an external FUD focused on distracting your energy. Propagating negative energy towards your own side is about the worst thing you can do, because not only does momentum end at you, but you are unwittingly or otherwise, a node reversing it. Never let yourself be made into someone else's useful idiot.

Posted: **13 Apr 2019 00:20**

Muppalla wrote:In 1st phase of UP elections BJP will get 6 or more out of 8. They may even capture all 8 seats.

Pardon my scepticism, but i beleived your predictions in 2009 elections. Didn't turn out so well.

Posted: **13 Apr 2019 00:34**

seriously, you guys exude too much negativity.

you do understand that itself negatively impacts the election chances, don't you ?

modi may or may not win. but he will CERTAINLY not win if his so-called supporters stop believing he will win and start expressing scepticism at a drop of a hat. keep the faith, fight the good fight. believe in India.

Posted: **13 Apr 2019 00:50**

Rahul M wrote:seriously, you guys exude too much negativity.

you do understand that itself negatively impacts the election chances, don't you ?

modi may or may not win. but he will CERTAINLY not win if his so-called supporters stop believing he will win and start expressing scepticism at a drop of a hat. keep the faith, fight the good fight. believe in India.

Well said Rahulji.

"Enough of Mudi will lose onleee."

Whatever happens will happen. By sitting in our forum and arm chair debating how BJP loses we are doing no one any good.

Thus is the time to go out on social media, IRL interactions and overwhelm the opposition with why voting BJP is only thing.

I remember everyone saying at the onset of Modi' s term that this is going to be a marathon. Not one term but multiple terms to clear the damage done by C- ecosystem. And funnily at the first trial of these elections we are back to our dhoti-shivering.

Got to do my bit. I am going out to carpet bomb the opposition. Enough sitting at home twiddling mt thumbs

Posted: **13 Apr 2019 00:51**

jamwal wrote:
Muppalla wrote:In 1st phase of UP elections BJP will get 6 or more out of 8. They may even capture all 8 seats.
Pardon my scepticism, but i beleived your predictions in 2009 elections. Didn't turn out so well.

That is not fair to Muppalla or anyone else who took time and effort to enthuse people . The time and effort he put in FAR exceeds most of us. Failure on the back of such effort is not something to punish or publicly put down. Shall we always deal with you in the context of anything you stated that didn’t come to pass, hmm ?

Elections are won by the efforts of people like Muppalla working hard to bring about positive energy , not by naysayers . If you did not like the results of his efforts, the best responses is to please let it be and wish him better success this time. Most of the time naysayers don’t even recognize the damage their ‘skepticism’ causes .

Bharat Rakshak

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