Bharat Rakshak

jamwal wrote:

Muppalla wrote:In 1st phase of UP elections BJP will get 6 or more out of 8. They may even capture all 8 seats.

Pardon my scepticism, but i beleived your predictions in 2009 elections. Didn't turn out so well.

That's okay yaar. I was 10 years younger in 2009. Think that your kid got it wrong about a decade ago.

In my view skepticism is fine but dhoti shiver is not. There is no single predictor including the multi billion dollar earning Nate Silver that can be right allways.

Regarding PP, he got mostly right but as like any other human he has failures. If you read his article on Rajasthan, he said he is basing on base data. Also all his failures are inside 2% margin of error. How can you be accurate in a poll like that of MP where BJP needed only 300 votes more across 10 constituencies to cross the mark. The difference between Cong and BJP in Rajathan was few lakh votes. He surely like many other got wrong on Chattisgargh because they are all giving weightage to the base data. The base data they built was some 10 years worth.

Rahul M wrote:seriously, you guys exude too much negativity.

you do understand that itself negatively impacts the election chances, don't you ?

modi may or may not win. but he will CERTAINLY not win if his so-called supporters stop believing he will win and start expressing scepticism at a drop of a hat. keep the faith, fight the good fight. believe in India.

Exactly. Can't even believe this But but but but but ... the scepticism is unending in spite of what we hear. it is impossible. We can't more than 30. How can we get 50? How how how? All the data points are showing we doing better. If you don't believe, close your eyes. It is going to happen whatever is going to happen. Make the opponents despondent.

There is a wave our there and Tsunami is about to hit the opposition of India. Just watch out.

look the Khozikode rally. Opinion polls say 1 to 2 seats in Kerala but enthusiasm in summer is not less for a NaMo rally:

jamwal wrote:

Muppalla wrote:In 1st phase of UP elections BJP will get 6 or more out of 8. They may even capture all 8 seats.

Pardon my scepticism, but i beleived your predictions in 2009 elections. Didn't turn out so well.

Jamwal'ji I have to point out couple of things. There are some 80-100 seats where a swing of 5% turns the seats outcome other way. And some of this swing is *within* the margin of error!

In 2004 and 2009, people did not come out to vote.

Of course the middle class is lazy. Stupendously lazy. They put the red chatterati's to shame. Here is the data point from Telangana:

Look at the vote percentage in the following urban constituencies (at 5 pm) for Telangana:

Malkajgiri 42.75
Secunderabad 39.20
Hyderabad 39.49

And this same chatterati will complain when they do not get enough sops in the finance budget. What happens if they get additional tax burden? Are they so dense to forget the stagflationary years of 2012-2014?

And that chatterati (Urban Middle Class) do not have to brave terrorist bullets or mao vadis or naxalites or Mamata's peechoney baans to cast their their vote.

All pre-poll predictions capture the sentiment and not the outcome. Hence for several urban seats, if the margin of loss is <5%, then you know who should be blamed. Not the psephologist, but the urban middle class.

Bengal govt denies permission for Rahul's chopper to land, poll meeting cancelled - PTI

Cheers

I don't think PP got it wrong in MP and Rajasthan. Those two were very close and his predictions weren't that far off. He did get it wrong in CG and he has accepted that. You cannot get it right every time.

There is a guy called @arungiri (idiot AAP activist but really CON activist pretending to be AAP). He predicted Kejri over Modi by 2 lakhs in 2014. He was recently introduced as Nate Silver of India on CNN/IBN. That is their level.

Check his Twitter. All despondent yesterday. They kind of left UP and now on MH bandwagon. The whole gang is going ga-ga over Raj Thackery and his rallies. Does anyone from MH tell us how much pull he has? Can he hurt NDA?

vijayk wrote: Check his Twitter. All despondent yesterday. They kind of left UP and now on MH bandwagon. The whole gang is going ga-ga over Raj Thackery and his rallies. Does anyone from MH tell us how much pull he has? Can he hurt NDA?

Raj Thackeray has been a joke in MH for quite a while. His flip flop from completely pro-Modi to completely anti-Modi is also hilarious. He can hurt the SS in a some seats but I would be very surprised if he has a significant effect. RT used to be even more virulently anti-north Indian than Uddhav when he formed the MNS. Now these Delhi congi chamchas are celebrating his rallies.

In this round only Chattisgargh, JK, TN has significant opposition competition. WB will be interesting. Karnataka is heading for a BJP landslide.

vijayk wrote:The whole gang is going ga-ga over Raj Thackery and his rallies. Does anyone from MH tell us how much pull he has? Can he hurt NDA?

Yes, Congies are going ga-ga over him. He / Congies seem to have planned his rallies at locations where Modi ji has already done his.

But very few takers. In my whatsapp groups, any post on how Raj Thackrey is capturing public imagination by Cong supporters is getting responses like below from common folks:
1. What are his stakes? He is not fighting LS election...
2. This fellow wanted to form an alliance with Congress/NCP. Congress declined to have alliance with him and this fellow is doing rallies for Congress. Height of hypocrisy
3. Raj Thackrey speeches are for entertainment only. Demonetization seems to have hit him hard...

As Suraj and Rahul M saars have stated, momentum this time is carried on by common folks whose lives have been touched by this GOI. There is silent approval of Modi ji's policies and that will be reflected in urban Maharashtra for sure...

My whole family (especially womenfolk) are all impressed by Modiji's policies and voted for him. In spite of it, all my families (especially 100% women) voted TDP for Assembly and BJP for MP.

You have to see the people's affection for him to understand

This official BJP tweet is offending a lot of people at left and center. I have answered quite a few but seems like it could have been worded differently

https://mobile.twitter.com/bjp4india/st ... 4119371776

Muppalla wrote:There is a wave our there and Tsunami is about to hit the opposition of India. Just watch out.

look the Khozikode rally. Opinion polls say 1 to 2 seats in Kerala but enthusiasm in summer is not less for a NaMo rally:

Maybe you might have seen this from Rajeev. He says 1 win is possible and Ayyappa issue benefits INC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbuRbXjTuuw

Katare wrote:This official BJP tweet is offending a lot of people at left and center. I have answered quite a few but seems like it could have been worded differently

https://mobile.twitter.com/bjp4india/st ... 4119371776

why it is offensive? If a person is from dharmic religions and they are illegal immigrant (note illegal means they may have home country), they will not be safe in their parent country and hence the humane consideration. The country was divided on religious lines in 1947 and that is a fact. It is a facts based decision. For others such as Muslims and Xians they have a home country and can be deported.

Look at Delhi's adarshnagar where hindus from Pak are still so called illegals and living in chaals with no electricity. I have a friends circle who collect money to ensure the folks live decently.

Katare wrote:This official BJP tweet is offending a lot of people at left and center. I have answered quite a few but seems like it could have been worded differently

https://mobile.twitter.com/bjp4india/st ... 4119371776

Must be an inside job to suppress Urban turn-out ? The message comes across a bit crass indeed.

ShyamSP wrote:Maybe you might have seen this from Rajeev. He says 1 win is possible and Ayyappa issue benefits INC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbuRbXjTuuw

Trivandrum is decently sure for BJP. The sabarimala one is tight and BJP may have to do extreme hard work.

OmkarC wrote:
Must be an inside job to suppress Urban turn-out ? The message comes across a bit crass indeed.

I think Amit Shah said exact same words.

Any information on these five. All these five are slated to be decently BJP wins.

Katare wrote:This official BJP tweet is offending a lot of people at left and center. I have answered quite a few but seems like it could have been worded differently

https://mobile.twitter.com/bjp4india/st ... 4119371776

Does seem like an unnecessary Jumla at this time. With full majority you could’ve done all this and more in the last 5 years.

Muppalla wrote:https://i.imgur.com/R9Ddkxt.png

Next big is TN with 39 seats. My prediction* is this time it will be split 19 or 20 for either party-alliances. 20 seat loss for AIADMK/NDA.
* I don't have district wise nuances of electorate unlike in AP.

ShyamSP wrote: Next big is TN with 39 seats. My prediction* is this time it will be split 19 or 20 for either party-alliances. 20 seat loss for AIADMK/NDA.
* I don't have district wise nuances of electorate unlike in AP.

DMK gave 10 seats to congies and all of them Cong don't have anything on the ground to campaign. That is where NDA got advantage.

ShyamSP wrote:

Muppalla wrote:https://i.imgur.com/R9Ddkxt.png

Next big is TN with 39 seats. My prediction* is this time it will be split 19 or 20 for either party-alliances. 20 seat loss for AIADMK/NDA.
* I don't have district wise nuances of electorate unlike in AP.

Well last time ADMK wasn't part of NDA, so NDA had a big Zero in TN I believe.Whatever ADMK gets this time and adds to NDA kitty is a bonus.

nachiket wrote:

ShyamSP wrote: Next big is TN with 39 seats. My prediction* is this time it will be split 19 or 20 for either party-alliances. 20 seat loss for AIADMK/NDA.
* I don't have district wise nuances of electorate unlike in AP.

Well last time ADMK wasn't part of NDA, so NDA had a big Zero in TN I believe.Whatever ADMK gets this time and adds to NDA kitty is a bonus.

I already consider AIADMK(+other alliance parties) is part of NDA and for NDA to win Loksabha magic figure. Amma is sourly missed as there is so much mess in TN to want to be positive for AIADMK. I got 19 seats for AIADMK for extreme positive scenario so it is upper bound and single digit for DMK sweep scenario.

ShyamSP wrote: I already consider AIADMK(+other alliance parties) is part of NDA and for NDA to win Loksabha magic figure. Amma is sourly missed as there is so much mess in TN to want to be positive for AIADMK. I got 19 seats for AIADMK for extreme positive scenario so it is upper bound and single digit for DMK sweep scenario.

No what I meant was strictly speaking AIADMK wasn't part of NDA in 2014 but is now. So NDA tally in 2014 did not include the 39 that Amma got. But whatever they get now will be included. SO it is a net gain for NDA even though AIADMK itself does worse than 2014.

vimal wrote:

Katare wrote:This official BJP tweet is offending a lot of people at left and center. I have answered quite a few but seems like it could have been worded differently

https://mobile.twitter.com/bjp4india/st ... 4119371776

Does seem like an unnecessary Jumla at this time. With full majority you could’ve done all this and more in the last 5 years.

Whats a jumla ?
What is "full majority"?
Please give step by step solution of how you would have sorted the illegal immigrant problem if "you" had the "full majority" (whatever that is) instead of NaMo/BJP?

Wondering about Putin award to Modi ...

Wonder if he knows something that we don't. JustSaying ...

BTW, young tamilian girls are so enamored of Sitaramaji. I wish someone in TN BJP gives her more coverage

vijayk wrote:BTW, young tamilian girls are so enamored of Sitaramaji. I wish someone in TN BJP gives her more coverage

Has she campaigned there a lot? She probably doesn't have too much time due to MoD workload.

Karnataka was lost by 3450 votes. And driven.by NOTA guys Some of whom are BRF members.

Which survey will capture darkness in the educated voters hearts. People disappointed with 543 surveys should try to work in a municipal election before talking

I don't understand or look still talking about Telugu state elections
It's over. Don't post again

Vijayk, Be realistic. BJP is contesting in 5 TN seats. How many seats will.they win?
We are in undeclared war with TSP.
And to satisfy some young voters you want the Raksha Mantri to stop minding the store and go campaign!

Some one commented on Raj, MP, and CG losses on 11 Dec. And every one was thinking Pappu is on the march.
Well in one month that march was stopped and reversed thanks to efforts of some members who were constantly denigrated over the years.

Lots of bias is being posted as analysis.

ramana wrote:Some one commented on Raj, MP, and CG losses on 11 Dec. And every one was thinking Pappu is on the march.
Well in one month that march was stopped and reversed thanks to efforts of some members who were constantly denigrated over the years.

Ramana-garu,

There was no pappu factor in these states.

RJ - Vasundra Raje as CM has flipped-flopped and lost popularity. A lot of people didn't come out and vote as the INC only had 1.5% increase in vote share.
MP - Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan is popular, but complacency set in and not enough middle class people voted. INC only has a 6 seat majority.
CG - Ajit Jogi formed his own party and took away votes from the BJP.

The common theme here is that every state has its own political dynamic. Some people be it Mamta Banerjee, Mayawati, Mulyam, Yadavs, CBN, Naveen Patnaik think they can be larger regional or national leaders, but in reality they are politically confined to their own state. The key is in every state to form a coalition with them or to ensure they don't run against you. There is some practicality in all of this. In UP if Congress gets vote share, they will take away from the mahachorbandhan and will help the BJP. I think Amit Shah has done the best as anybody can, but if the BJP falls short, so be it and better luck in 2024.

I was expecting RJ loss based on my father's anecdotes that he recounted to me. He had visited Rajasthan for work multiple times last year before the elections. Short story is that the slogan on everyone's tongue was "Rani teri khair nahi, Modi tujhse bair nahi" ("We will not spare the queen but we have no problem/enmity with Modi"). People were really dissatisfied with V Raje.

Lilo wrote:

vimal wrote: Please give step by step solution of how you would have sorted the illegal immigrant problem if "you" had the "full majority" (whatever that is) instead of NaMo/BJP?

Without much fanfare thru intermediaries give work permits and placement to select small groups with high profile like the Rohingya. Relocate and disperse so they don't become an opposition asset. Based on success leverage for brownie points or deflating vote bank politics of Mamata and ilk.

Is it a concidence? ..just seeing how Trump is leveraging illegals against sanctuary cities in democratic states. His move is cynical and those aspects should be avoided.

Ultimately you need both majority and minority testicles in the establishment lockbox.

UP recorded 10% odd drop in voter turn out from 2014.

-Ankit

Ankit Desai wrote:UP recorded 10% odd drop in voter turn out from 2014.

-Ankit

That's only part of western UP. In any case, it may be bad news for the BJP in those districts.

Ankit Desai wrote:UP recorded 10% odd drop in voter turn out from 2014.

-Ankit

Please quote reference .

First phase GE 2019 voter turn out percentage 69.43% ( n still likely to go up when data from remaining polling parties is added up).
unadjusted turnout was 65%.
(2014 final percentage was 66.44%)

State-wise first phase voter turnout (without adjustment)
State Voter turnout in %
Andaman & Nicobar Islands 70.67
Andhra Pradesh 56
Arunachal Pradesh 66
Assam 68
Chhattisgarh 56
Lakshadweep 66
Manipur 78.2
Mizoram 61.29
Nagaland 78
Odisha 68
Sikkim 69
Telangana 60
Tripura 81.8
Uttar Pradesh 64
Uttarakhand 57.85
West Bengal 81

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok- ... 797548.ece