2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7321
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 13 Apr 2019 06:22

India Today takeaway on eve of first phase poll: turnout atleast as much as 2014 if not more (except Uttarakhand)


higher turnout is advantage BJP according to psephologists
Maharashtra weaker turnout compared with 2014
BJP supporters are going out to vote where as thugbandhan /Con are not that mobilised ^^

Theeran
BRFite
Posts: 201
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Theeran » 13 Apr 2019 06:58

nachiket wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:Next big is TN with 39 seats. My prediction* is this time it will be split 19 or 20 for either party-alliances. 20 seat loss for AIADMK/NDA.
* I don't have district wise nuances of electorate unlike in AP.

Well last time ADMK wasn't part of NDA, so NDA had a big Zero in TN I believe.Whatever ADMK gets this time and adds to NDA kitty is a bonus.

Pon Radhakrishnan for bjp won from Kanyakumari in 2014. This year they will again get min 1. Either cbe or kanyakumari.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7405
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby disha » 13 Apr 2019 07:04

Ankit Desai wrote:UP recorded 10% odd drop in voter turn out from 2014.

-Ankit


In two seats, Muslim vote fell down by 12%. That is significant.

The data item is from Praveen Patil & I purchased his subscription.

tandav
BRFite
Posts: 604
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby tandav » 13 Apr 2019 07:22

Asked a UP based sugarcane juice seller who has his crusher shack in Gandhinagar his opinion on UP voting. He was angry at BJP and states SP+BSP will win.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 612
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 13 Apr 2019 07:40

tandav wrote:Asked a UP based sugarcane juice seller who has his crusher shack in Gandhinagar his opinion on UP voting. He was angry at BJP and states SP+BSP will win.


^^ And that ladies and gents is why a lot of people from UP are working in other states instead of their own.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 13 Apr 2019 08:18

tandav wrote:Asked a UP based sugarcane juice seller who has his crusher shack in Gandhinagar his opinion on UP voting. He was angry at BJP and states SP+BSP will win.


I don't understand, you posted that you spoke to someone who is close to SP and that person said BJP will lose. Now you post talking to UP based sugarcane juice seller who is angry at BJP, no reasoning no background of the person. Just angry eh? Sorry such posts don't add any insights.

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3525
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 13 Apr 2019 08:27

Image

I am going to do a little statistically-illiterate kitchen-table handwaving here.

The idea is to estimate the MINIMUM number of seats BJP will win this time, based partially on the seat-wise outcomes of the past 8 LS elections.

I find the graph above very interesting.

The green line is for "OTHERS". This includes ALL non-national parties: non-INC, non-BJP. It could include coalition partners of NDA and UPA, plus Mahagathbandhan type parties, 4th-Front parties, Left parties, etc.

I have plotted it this way to indicate that the green line is an AGGREGATE of ALL voter motivations NOT to vote for one of the two national parties. Including caste, regional, community etc. loyalties taking precedence over anything else.

Of course to some extent it could imply false positives in that people may vote for a particular party in the green category knowing that it is in either NDA or UPA, i.e. they are giving their votes to it because it is a proxy in their constituency for one of the two national parties, such as Shiv Sena in Mumbai or RJD in Bihar. Yet, the very fact that one of the alliances had to incorporate the party in question shows that in the given constituency, sub-national motivations for voting outweigh allegiance to either of the two "national parties".

So I think I am pretty safe saying: the GREEN line is a trend-line proxy for all seats won on the basis of primarily SUB-national political affinity. Be that caste, region, religion, or whatever.

What is interesting is that the extent of seats won by votes cast on the basis of sub-national affinities is ALMOST constant within a given range, from 1989 to present. It fits in a neat box of 197-260 seats.

The greatest variance in seat share is for the two national parties (blue line = INC, orange line = BJP).

Starting from this point, I'm going to make some predictions as to how many votes MINIMUM BJP is likely to win this time. Remember that as I do this, I am making assuming conditions of MAXIMUM generosity to the opposition (INC, Mahagathbandhan etc.) so that I can estimate the lower limit for BJP seats.

1) How many will INC win?

I am going to make the argument that INC's position this time is roughly analogous (more than to any other data point) to BJP's position between 1989-1991. This is the BEST case for INC.

Why do I say this? Because:
A ) In 1991, INC had India's "tallest leader" with the most pan-India appeal: Rajiv Gandhi. Yes, he was tainted by Bofors, but he was also the son of Indira who had died just 7 years before. Today, NaMo is probably more popular than Rajiv, but for this purpose, let us say he is equally popular as Rajiv was before his death at Sriperumbudur.
B ) BJP in 1991 was in a state roughly analogous to INC in 2019. BJP in 1991 had never proved itself a national party, a "natural party of governance". In 2014, INC was firmly knocked off the pedestal of "natural party of governance" by failing to get even a triple-digit seat count.

However, I'm also being extra generous to INC in making the comparison. Why? Because:
A ) In 1989-91, BJP had many leaders of stature who enjoyed the confidence of the public in many parts of India: ABV, LK Advani etc. By contrast, what does INC from 2014-19 have? Pappu.
B ) BJP in 1990 had kick-started the Ram Mandir movement, which was a true mass-mobilization movement in Indian politics. INC between 2014-19 has done nothing like that. All they have is Lootyens Media lies, "Rafale" rhetoric, "Unemployment" claims, and the "NYAY" vote-buying scheme.

OK. Phir bhi, let us say that the % increase in seats for INC from 2014-2019 will be equal to the % increase in seats for BJP between 1989-1991. Yes, of course I'm being generous here. But remember, this is a worst-case scenario estimation.

So what do we get? The rise in seat count for BJP from 1989-1991 was 85 to 120, i.e. ~41%. Let us give INC an increase of 41% in the 2019 polls over their seat count in 2014. This grants INC 62 seats in the 2019 election.

2) How many seats will "Others" win?

This is a tougher question. As mentioned previously, Others have held a range of seats between 197 and 260 in all elections from 1989 to present. This indicates there is a fairly consistent fraction of the electorate, distributed constituency-wise, that votes on the grounds of subnational political affinity rather than for one of the two national parties.

Now if one looks at the seat share of "Others", a pattern emerges. When there is a surge AGAINST BOTH national parties, the green line swings higher. When there is a mandate in favour of one national party, only the die-hard supporters vote for the sub-national parties, and the green line swings lower. But the range is pretty much constant for the last 30 years.

So what I've done (to be generous, again) is consider the median of all the seat shares of the non-INC, non-BJP parties over the last 30 years (this is more generous than the arithmetic or geometric mean). It comes to 231.5.

To this figure I have ADDED one full standard deviation of ~25. That brings the figure of seats won by non-INC, non-BJP parties to 256. That is very close to the highest they have EVER won: 260.

...So.

With 62 seats to INC (generous figure) and 256 seats to Others (again, generous figure), what are we left with?

225 seats for BJP.


This is the minimum, the bare minimum, that BJP will win in 2019. It is more than enough to form the govt, given that "Others" includes NDA partners as well. Look at UPA 1 (formed with 145 INC seats), and UPA 2 (formed with 206 INC seats). Even the worst-case scenario for BJP in 2019 is better than either of those figures.

So Conclusion #1: Barring catastrophic contigencies, Modi WILL be the PM from 2019-2024. He will in fact be a STRONGER PM than ANY PM from 1996-2014... even Manmohan Singh/Sonia Gandhi ruled India with only 145 seats in 2004 and 206 seats in 2009. And let me remind you, this is the worst case scenario.

Now:

The worst-case scenario ASSUMES that Modi has been no better, no worse than any other PM for the last 30 years. It takes into account that fluctuations in the global economic environment, and their repercussions in India, have remained within a certain range throughout that time period. It is based on the premise that whatever economic/social pain voters have felt in their daily lives throughout the 1989-2014 period is no better and no worse than what they have experienced in the 2014-2019 period.

However, WHAT IF Modi has in fact been not just ordinary, but transformational?

What if the poorest of the poor have never seen anything like this level of improvement in their daily lives within the last 70 years, let alone 30?

What if nearly all classes of Indians realize that they have, in fact, never had it as good as they have today at any point in living memory? Economically and otherwise?

What if that intangible but incalculable sense of pride (at being Indian, and at being a legate of Hindu civilization) instilled by Modi has no equivalent at all in any of the regimes from at least 1964 to the present?

What if at very long last, there is a deep and satisfying sense of gratitude amongst the people of India that a government has served a full five years without any credible involvement in a scam, or a ghotala, or some other stigmatizing blemish of wanton corruption?

If that is the case, the sky is the limit.

There is NO reason why Modi will not come back with 300+ seats (for BJP alone) this time around. Just look at the graph again. The green line remains, curiously enough, pretty steady between 2009-2014. But the slopes of the orange (BJP) and blue (INC) lines are absolutely unprecedented in this period.

People WANT a National Party running the Union Government. They only vote for the Other (Subnational) parties when they feel equally disgusted by both National parties. There is every reason to believe that will not be the case this time around. Pappu will bring at best 20 more seats to the INC tally (and it is quite possible that he will arrive at a score lower than 44). Others may very well hit something close to their low-water-mark of ~180 seats.

Looked at from a historical perspective, it is very much possible that BJP by itself will win 300 or even 320 seats this time around.
Last edited by Rudradev on 13 Apr 2019 08:54, edited 4 times in total.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13698
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 13 Apr 2019 08:36

Karthik S wrote:
tandav wrote:Asked a UP based sugarcane juice seller who has his crusher shack in Gandhinagar his opinion on UP voting. He was angry at BJP and states SP+BSP will win.


I don't understand, you posted that you spoke to someone who is close to SP and that person said BJP will lose. Now you post talking to UP based sugarcane juice seller who is angry at BJP, no reasoning no background of the person. Just angry eh? Sorry such posts don't add any insights.

Those posts are astroturfing in progress.

Muppalla
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7096
Joined: 12 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muppalla » 13 Apr 2019 08:38

Finally this thread is firing up. So the campaign will all fire up. :)

Have you guys following Karnataka rallies.
Must see this Twitter thread
https://twitter.com/Pruthvinreddy/statu ... 7316409345

when people come on their own to listen to a leader they walk miles in the hot summer sun

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 13 Apr 2019 08:47

VDPAssociates@VDPAssociates
Follow Follow @VDPAssociates
More
All India first phase total voter turnout stands at 69.43%
The Phase-I voter turnout in 2014 Lok Sabha election was 66.44% #LokSabhaElections2019

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2579
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Katare » 13 Apr 2019 09:03

IndraD wrote:India Today takeaway on eve of first phase poll: turnout atleast as much as 2014 if not more (except Uttarakhand)


higher turnout is advantage BJP according to psephologists
Maharashtra weaker turnout compared with 2014
BJP supporters are going out to vote where as thugbandhan /Con are not that mobilised ^^


Higher voter turnout is really bad for the ruling party. Modiji got full majority based on a massive (iirc the largest increase ever) surge in voting. The record of voting surge before that was held by elections after emergency when Congress lost for the first time.

jamwal
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5158
Joined: 19 Feb 2008 21:28
Location: Somewhere Else
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby jamwal » 13 Apr 2019 09:08

In Jammu - Poonch constituency, all areas except the richest urban Gandhinagar sector had 65 to 75% turnout. All of my friends and family who live there voted for BJP. Gandhinagar is mostly Hindu and Sikh. If Sikhs didn't vote, then BJP is at advantage. Rural sectors, specially near border areas are voting for BJP except for muslims.

Kathua is also for BJP this time. Can't say the same for Laddkah, lots of infighting there.

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2579
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Katare » 13 Apr 2019 09:11

OmkarC wrote:
Katare wrote:This official BJP tweet is offending a lot of people at left and center. I have answered quite a few but seems like it could have been worded differently

https://mobile.twitter.com/bjp4india/st ... 4119371776


Must be an inside job to suppress Urban turn-out ? The message comes across a bit crass indeed.


He is actually stating a 4 year old policy/law that gives automatic rights to migrates to India to all religious minorities of Indian origins anywhere in the world.

Such a positive policy/law has been reworded in that tweet to read like its goal is to exclude a particular religion.

SriKumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2055
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby SriKumar » 13 Apr 2019 09:13

In this case, I actually believe high turnout will help Modi.

He has done enough for large sections of the poorer society that they would feel compelled to vote their support. (One saw enough losses in KA and CG where BJP lost by 100 and 1000 votes that everyone, including people on BRF realized that all should go out and vote, even 500 votes made a large difference).

High turnout as a sign of anti-incumbency is only when the people overall are truly fed up with the incumbent and cannot wait to get rid of him. This was INC in 2014, after 10 years of MMS- which included the non-response to Mumbai terror attacks, no one wanted INC anymore. Nothing like that for Modi ...people in general actually do support him - though opposition is trying to apply caste equations to break the vote. (There are anti-Modi groups for sure, but these are the usual suspects- people who lost money in GST, people who worked in black money and hope for a return to old practices, some peaceful people etc.).

Added later: I hope the above is not taken as a reason for people to not go out and vote Modi if things look in his favor at early stages! It aint over until its over and KA elections showed that a few 100 votes can make a large difference.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8000
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 13 Apr 2019 09:57

Theeran wrote:
nachiket wrote:Well last time ADMK wasn't part of NDA, so NDA had a big Zero in TN I believe.Whatever ADMK gets this time and adds to NDA kitty is a bonus.

Pon Radhakrishnan for bjp won from Kanyakumari in 2014. This year they will again get min 1. Either cbe or kanyakumari.

Sorry, forgot about that. Still that was just 1 seat. I'm hoping AIADMK will at least be in double digits. That will go some way in offsetting the seat loss in AP compared to last time (for NDA, not BJP).

Krita
BRFite
Posts: 202
Joined: 23 Jul 2009 13:33

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Krita » 13 Apr 2019 10:11

Katare wrote:
OmkarC wrote:
Must be an inside job to suppress Urban turn-out ? The message comes across a bit crass indeed.


He is actually stating a 4 year old policy/law that gives automatic rights to migrates to India to all religious minorities of Indian origins anywhere in the world.

Such a positive policy/law has been reworded in that tweet to read like its goal is to exclude a particular religion.

That is exactly a majority of the middle class wants to hear. NRC to boot out a large number of freeloaders from peacefool neighbours.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8000
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 13 Apr 2019 10:35

Katare wrote:Higher voter turnout is really bad for the ruling party. Modiji got full majority based on a massive (iirc the largest increase ever) surge in voting. The record of voting surge before that was held by elections after emergency when Congress lost for the first time.

If you look at the video, both psephologists seem to agree that they felt BJP voters were more enthusiastic to come out and vote, before the elections, than the SP/BSP voters. So high turnout might just mean they all came out to vote. That is not an anti-incumbency vote.

Theeran
BRFite
Posts: 201
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Theeran » 13 Apr 2019 10:35

nachiket wrote:
Theeran wrote:Pon Radhakrishnan for bjp won from Kanyakumari in 2014. This year they will again get min 1. Either cbe or kanyakumari.

Sorry, forgot about that. Still that was just 1 seat. I'm hoping AIADMK will at least be in double digits. That will go some way in offsetting the seat loss in AP compared to last time (for NDA, not BJP).


It is hard to say this time. EPS and OPS have actually started to come out as capable leaders even if the media and whatsapp portrayal is different. But in cbe so there is a lot of admk bias to what I hear.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8000
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 13 Apr 2019 10:41

Suraj wrote:
Ankit Desai wrote:UP recorded 10% odd drop in voter turn out from 2014.

-Ankit

Please quote reference .

He can't. It's fake news. UP voter turnout is 63.7% in 2019 vs 65% in 2014. Slight drop, but nothing major. Link (Note these are still preliminary figures and may go up).

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 13 Apr 2019 11:28

There has been a drop in M votes in UP phase 1. Chintamani twitter estimates Phase 1 BJP 33/91, NDA 44/91, INC/UPA 1/91. This is with 25 and 17 seats in AP/TS where BJP was practically not in contest.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 13 Apr 2019 11:41

Aggregate turnout 2014 66%, 2019 69% VDPAssociates.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 612
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 13 Apr 2019 11:42

INC/UPA 1/91
:eek: :eek: :eek:
That makes me nerbhas.

What could be the 12% lower turnout reason for momeens? Are they phussed by Modi's performance and are tired of the same Pappu/Lalu/Maya/Mulayam nonsense they've been dished since 1947. Hard to say and i might be making too many assumptions.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13698
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 13 Apr 2019 11:56

If anyone finds any polling percentage breakdown into any categories (eg men vs women, urban constituencies vs rural ones) please post the data and reference .

vsunder
BRFite
Posts: 951
Joined: 06 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Ulan Bator, Mongolia

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vsunder » 13 Apr 2019 12:40

Muppalla wrote:Finally this thread is firing up. So the campaign will all fire up. :)

Have you guys following Karnataka rallies.
Must see this Twitter thread
https://twitter.com/Pruthvinreddy/statu ... 7316409345

when people come on their own to listen to a leader they walk miles in the hot summer sun


This hardly surprises me. Gangavathi was recently connected to IR after 23 years of broken promises since Deve Gowda. It is the rice bowl of Karnataka. Traders had a hard time traveling to Hubli, Bangalore and other places.Soon after the new train service to Gangavathi started someone interviewed local business people on the train. Unequivocally they praised the efforts of Modi and attributed the completion to him. The interview is in Kannada.
I have been documenting the immense efforts of this dispensation in doubling, electrification, new lines and gauge conversions. I had posted a video of the arrival of the first train to Gangavathi in the Railway thread which shows the joyous enthusiasm of the people. It is shameful that the Telengana and Andhra people who have been recipients of the benefits of many doubling projects, new lines and electrification and third line projects have not reposed their faith in NDA. The status of many of these projects in the form of videos were posted by me on the Railway thread. Karnataka got a large share of doubling projects, electrification and Bangalore suburban rail. Tippu Armoury was shifted after 10 years of wrangling and doubling and electrification between Bangalore-Mysore done finally and EMU will start soon. Kerala and TN also got many, many projects completed that had languished for years. Projects in Kerala and TN had languished for 10 years or more got completed. Just too many of them and again I had posted videos of CRS inspections when the projects were finally completed. In this very same Coimbatore, it is only due diligence that allowed this dispensation to complete the Podanur-Pollachi-Dindigul re-gauging. Lemurians were cribbing about it no end, but how quickly they forget that their anguish at taking buses and being at the mercy of the bus operators ended soon. Ditto for the Palghat-Palani re-gauging, the Kollam-Sengottai re-gauging project over the Western ghats which languished for years when the old govt. ripped up the MG tracks and sat on their thumbs. Bewaqoofi ki had hoti hai.

Bihar and UP got the DFC and the Marhowra plant for GE locos and the Alstom electric loco plant. Rajasthan, Gujarat, MH have gotten many construction jobs through DFC and more jobs in the future through logistic hubs. Ditto for Bihar and UP.
Last edited by vsunder on 13 Apr 2019 13:00, edited 2 times in total.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13698
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 13 Apr 2019 12:54

The high voter turnout interested me. So I looked at ALL General Elections dating back to 1951. ECI has all this data available here.
    Year Turnout Notes
    1951 45.7% Very first GE, difficult logistics
    1957 45.4%
    1962 55.4% Political maturation
    1967 61.0% Unclear why turnout rose so much. Oldtimers may know, much before my time.
    1971 55.3% Or why it was so low here
    1977 60.5% Clear bump for JD
    1980 56.9% back to mid 50%
    1984 63.6% Largest turnout until then
    1989 61.9% Pretty high turnout by historical trend, but returned fractured verdict
    1991 55.7% Voter fatigue
    1996 57.9% Returned fractured verdict
    1998 61.9% Attempt to generate stable mandate, failed
    1999 59.9% Attempt #2, succeeded
    2004 58.1% Lower turnout, yet incumbent lost. Weak rural sentiment, fractured verdict
    2009 56.9% Weaker turnout but incumbent gained more significant mandate.
    2014 66.4% Highest ever turnout by a distance
    2019 Currently at par or slightly above prior high water mark

Generally:
* There's a significant incremental bump if people have a major cause. Examples are 1977 (post Emergency), 1984 (post IG assassination), 2014 (Modi wave 1.0)
* Even a major event may be dampened by voter fatigue in the absence of other reasons to vote. Example: 1991 post RG assassination there was no bump as in 1984.
* Both GEs this decade have shown turnout rate at the upper end of historical trend %.
* The two Rajiv Gandhi related GEs in the 1980s were the only other time that successive GEs had a high turnout. However, the second one was embroiled in scandal and returned a fractured verdict
* Ignoring the first 2 GEs and the 2014 one, the average turnout is 58.8% across all remaining GEs.

So, it's not clear what a high turnout - potentially higher than GE2014 - indicates here. Just the turnout itself is a historical high, as was GE2014 at that time. A several percentage point incremental growth in turnout is a strong signal, but anything else isn't. The 2010s have seen historically high turnout levels far higher than the 58% turnout seen on average in every prior GE.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 13 Apr 2019 13:10

Good turnout in Theni for Namo rally.

shravan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2201
Joined: 03 Apr 2009 00:08

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby shravan » 13 Apr 2019 13:22

Suraj wrote:If anyone finds any polling percentage breakdown into any categories (eg men vs women, urban constituencies vs rural ones) please post the data and reference .


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4BDpkQUEAApwFW.png

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8000
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 13 Apr 2019 13:28

shravan wrote:
Suraj wrote:If anyone finds any polling percentage breakdown into any categories (eg men vs women, urban constituencies vs rural ones) please post the data and reference .


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4BDpkQUEAApwFW.png

Thank you! One thing that surprises me is that AP has more female than male registered voters! 19.8 million women vs 19.4 million men. The small northeastern states show the same characteristic but a large state like AP having more female voters is great. The parts of UP which went to polls in phase 1 on the other hand show a very lopsided picture with only 6.9 million women vs 8.3 million men registered.

Where is the data from btw?

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13698
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 13 Apr 2019 13:41

A cursory look over statewise voter turnout data in the GEs in the 2000s and that in 2014 indicates that a large part of the bump comes from significantly higher poll turnouts in UP, RJ, MH, BH and the NE states. These states are again reporting high polling rates in phase 1 this time.

Another piece of information is that 2014 was not only the highwater mark in voter turnout, but also was the lowest popular vote share ever obtained by a government gaining a simple majority. The reason there was controversy about 'only 31% vote share' was that no party with a simple majority ever polled that few overall vote fraction. Of course, that also suggests that 2014 might have shown the highest vote share to seat share conversion too.

2014 was also the second time that INC did not win the popular vote, after 1977. Historically, INC has always won the popular vote, except in 1977 and 2014. Yes, even in 1996, 1998 and 1999 it won the popular vote comfortably, even though BJP was single largest party then.

BJP's share of popular vote has been:
    Year %PopularVote
    1984 7.75%
    1989 11.36%
    1991 20.04%
    1996 20.29%
    1998 25.59%
    1999 23.75%
    2004 22.16%
    2009 18.80%
    2014 31.34%

fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3517
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby fanne » 13 Apr 2019 13:43

1967 was when for the first time non congress parties were forming govt in north India

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4043
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kit » 13 Apr 2019 14:15

looks like the americans with all their fancy data analysis believe modi will sail through with a near comfortable margin..FB WA and Tw seems to have controlled the fake news. Anyway prepare for a new era in indian politics. The congress will be just another party relegated to local levels.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 13 Apr 2019 14:22

Katare wrote:
Higher voter turnout is really bad for the ruling party. Modiji got full majority based on a massive (iirc the largest increase ever) surge in voting. The record of voting surge before that was held by elections after emergency when Congress lost for the first time.


Please spare these half-study analysis.

1999 voting was high percentage 69% iirc, and 13 months Vajpayee Govt returned with higher seats. In 2004 only 48% voting, Vajpayee govt ousted.

Again 2009 low percentage of voting and BJP lost again.

2014 high voting & BJP wins.

2019 high voting will lead to bigger BJP victory, on 23 May I will be on this thread back to taunt you on your wrong biased CONCLUSION

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6435
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 13 Apr 2019 14:29

NDA voteshare for 2014 was 39%. If phase 1 holds for the later phases it seems the secular trend is that more people are voting which is a good sign.

gauravsh
BRFite
Posts: 106
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 12:35

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby gauravsh » 13 Apr 2019 16:04

tandav wrote:Asked a UP based sugarcane juice seller who has his crusher shack in Gandhinagar his opinion on UP voting. He was angry at BJP and states SP+BSP will win.

Never knew opinion of a single person can determine the fate of a whole state :-? :-?

gauravsh
BRFite
Posts: 106
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 12:35

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby gauravsh » 13 Apr 2019 16:10

Ankit Desai wrote:UP recorded 10% odd drop in voter turn out from 2014.

-Ankit

And this is based on what source ?
from here http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=105116 net UP % was 58.35 in 2014. In 2019 it seems to be above 60% in first phase.

jamwal
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5158
Joined: 19 Feb 2008 21:28
Location: Somewhere Else
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby jamwal » 13 Apr 2019 17:06

If conversations with random UP people are a good indicator of how polls will turn out, then I can safely assume that BJP will win all except 3 to 4 seats from all time. That too is a possible win for BJP if muslim turnout is lower.

I have met only one UP voter who was a bit ambivalent about his preference. But mostly because he is a former aapiya who now doesn't want to be associated with kejriwal :lol:

Then there is another socialist type whose only agenda is to hate anything with Hindu identity because socialism.

Krita
BRFite
Posts: 202
Joined: 23 Jul 2009 13:33

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Krita » 13 Apr 2019 17:23

vimal wrote:
INC/UPA 1/91
:eek: :eek: :eek:
That makes me nerbhas.

What could be the 12% lower turnout reason for momeens? Are they phussed by Modi's performance and are tired of the same Pappu/Lalu/Maya/Mulayam nonsense they've been dished since 1947. Hard to say and i might be making too many assumptions.


In twitter people are saying that in the some districts there is some strife between muslims sects like Querishis-non Quereshis etc. Also, read somewhere that muslim women voters were less compared to 2014. Don't know how reliable is the above analysis.

Krita
BRFite
Posts: 202
Joined: 23 Jul 2009 13:33

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Krita » 13 Apr 2019 17:28

Muppalla wrote:Finally this thread is firing up. So the campaign will all fire up. :)

Have you guys following Karnataka rallies.
Must see this Twitter thread
https://twitter.com/Pruthvinreddy/statu ... 7316409345

when people come on their own to listen to a leader they walk miles in the hot summer sun


and Mangalore rally
https://mobile.twitter.com/snsachinnandu

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Vikas » 13 Apr 2019 17:38

jamwal wrote:In Jammu - Poonch constituency, all areas except the richest urban Gandhinagar sector had 65 to 75% turnout. All of my friends and family who live there voted for BJP. Gandhinagar is mostly Hindu and Sikh. If Sikhs didn't vote, then BJP is at advantage. Rural sectors, specially near border areas are voting for BJP except for muslims.

Kathua is also for BJP this time. Can't say the same for Laddkah, lots of infighting there.


Do you mean Nanak Nagar area or Gandhi Nagar in General ?
Everyone who I know is rooting for BJP in Jammu, even those who have been life long Congressi voters.
Jammu should goto BJP's kitty. I feel sorry for the candidates who have to cover area which is bigger than Delhi for just one seat.
It is weird that Sikhs in Jammu would rather vote for NC or even PDP than BJP, Maybe still nursing the wounds of losing J&K to Dogra empire after Ranjit Singh but that is a conversation for some other day.

jamwal
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5158
Joined: 19 Feb 2008 21:28
Location: Somewhere Else
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby jamwal » 13 Apr 2019 18:36

Gandhi Nagar includes Nanak Nagar and it had around 50% turnout. There are a lot more sikhs in rural parts near airport area close to border. Most apart from a few exceptions are rabidly sikh supremacist types drunk on koolaid of marital sikh koum and openly support khalistani terrorists. That doesn't stop them from whining about 1984 riots and how they were multi millionaires before that.

I had a huge verbal spats with some when they started their anti-Hindu tirade over removal of khalistani posters by Jammu police. A few made threatening calls calling me a communal, weakling etc. :lol:

I still have some very good friends, but a very large number are born and bred chutiyas. Quite a few of them are refugees from PoK, Pakistan and are bitterly divided in to multiple castes like Labana, Poonchi, Jaat, Kashmiri, Khatri and god knows how many more. That doesn't stop them from graduating from Damdami Taksal Whatsapp group and hating on Hindus if they don't buy in to their sikhs are the saviours of Hindustan trope.

For sikh supremacists like them, any strong leadership which strengthens Hindu identity is a big no no. They'd rather praise muslims in public than acknowledge Hindu contribution to Sikh panth. But in private (like when they get drunk), they all bitterly hate islam.

Most will vote to defeat Modi even though they hate Manmohan because he is viewed as a sell out.



This takes me back to so many memories. :D

Added Later: This Jammu-Poonch constituency can be safely split in to two. This is a huge areas with diverse terrain, people and languages. It's a low hanging fruit and should be a basic demand of people of this constituency.

They didn't lose Jammu to Dogras. They couldn't win anything north of Pathankot. Maharaja Gulab Singh (Dogra Rajput and founder of this Dogra empire) was employed by Sikh empire when all their military expeditions failed. He conquered all small hill kingdoms from Jammu-Punjab border till past Laddakh in to Tibet paid for by blood of Hindu Dogras led by his legendary General Zoravar Singh (another Hindu claimed to be Sikh by sikh supremacists). When sikh empire imploded due to massive infighting, greed, series of assassinations and defeat of sikh empire by British, he just bought out the state from the conquering British . But you should read their version of history on sikh wiki type sites. Mast Ram writing as a historian


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: g.sarkar, ravikr, Trikaal, uskumar and 110 guests