Bharat Rakshak

With the large amounts of pooth-level data available to Dr. BB, he has bosted detailed statistics (pehind baywall) confirming large drop in "greenery" in and around bolling stations in Western UP. There is no doubt about it.

Eastern India seems to be showing large gains for BJP.

In the south:

In 2014, NDA got 81 seats (BJP 46), not counting Union Territories.

AP+TG was already a "lost cause" this time...might get lucky in 1 TG seat. But the Plan B was already already made. TN (plus higher performance in KA and maybe 1 seat in KL) will offset these losses for NDA.

The overall BJP tally in these five states will rise. This time I think it will be 25.

Add the likely tally from MH and GA, plus seats of NDA parties in all these 7 states, and I expect around 80 NDA seats (including BJP 45+) again this time. So no significant losses expected in the south overall.

Assuming this plan works out, great job by Amit Shah: "vaango" for AIADMK in TN and "vaat lagana" for Thakre in MH. He has shown what it takes to successfully lead the world's largest democratic party.

i think higher turnout helps BJP ... its usually the middle class which does not vote...ifvote % ishigher means the middle class has voted. and if thats to be combined with less greenery.... results could be impressive. NDTV is projecting major major gains for BJP !!! just saw the youtube...

NDTV link please

going by the tone of articles appearing since yesterday the left liberals are getting nervous. therefore plan B has been activated which is to keep rafale in news and start the whining about EVM. naidu has already started it

According to reports looks like KCR is going to sweep TG. This is what happens when one opposition party is collapsing and the other gaining giving the incumbent incredible margins e.g. to TMC in WB which was getting 50-60% voteshare between 2016-2018. Meanwhile, lagta hai Naiduji ka KLPD ho gaya. Too clever by half. His calculation was it will be 2004 redux and he is going to save himself by transferring any anti-incumbency onto Modi/Shah/BJP. More KLPD is going to happen if after results we find out that if he added BJP voteshare he might have actually won.

Jamwal ji,
Didnt Jammu finish voting on 11th ?
All that microscopic focus on Jammu & tales of past or present Dogra vs Sikh one upmanship are not relevant - if there is ribbing aplently thats part & parcel, if there is new life in the dead or defanged local Khalistani snakes in Jammu because of increased activity surrounding referendum 2020(& the Kartarpur issue associated with it) & the prodding by the pakified overseas Khalis using SM,that is to be expected - and factored in.

However please stop attributing Khalistani loyalty to the whole group of Sikhs in Jammu, the Sikhs in india including Jammu are hardly swayed by Khali propagandu .
NaMo has appointed an SIT which already pried open the 1984 riot cases which were previously sealed shut by Congies & their coterie in the Supreme & other courts and started the long legal process by securing death penalty to perpetrators.
If NDA secures resounding victory in 2019 Kamal Nath too will be made to resign as CM & MP will be wrested back from BIF . He will be back on streets facing the comeuppance for the 1984 riots - as the SC is brought to heel he too will eventually see his lockup time giving company to Lalu.

All this is happening in the backdrop of Khalistanis, their Jihadi handlers & the local Congie gangs who are all not at all happy at the convictions being secured in riot cases made a common cause of targeting NaMo/BJP in social media.Notice how the Khalistani's are shamelessly pushing proCongie antiNaMo propagandu after their main crutch AAP imploded spectacularly in Punjab elections.
This is happeneing in the backdrop of increased activity surrounding Kartarpur where the Referendum 2020 is to be kicked off by ISI & their Jihadi "handled" Khalistanis.If India deflates this to a damp squib, it will signal the Khalistani's of their increasing irrelevance amongst the overseas Sikh communities too.
In concert RamMadhav is engaging the more moderate khalistanis in the overseas Sikh diaspora to bring them back into the Indian mainstream all the while RSS absorbs bloody sacrifices by its men in retaliatory strikes in Punjab by the more radical of the overseas Khalistani groups .
The focus and the determination to bridge the Hindu-Sikh cleavage engineered by congies in the 80s by the current Hindutva govt of NaMo/RSS is compelling to anyone who follows it.

The western agencies in Canada & Briturdia & oirope are backing the Khalistani play of the Pakis at this point by targeting Indian agencies infiltrating them . This is a complex longterm wrangle which has to be addressed at multiple levels to isolate the Khalistanis abroad.

My simple point is as of now Khalis-ISI-Congies are now working for a common cause - to rake up the antiHindu sentiments amongst Sikhs & antiSikh sentiments amongst Hindus . No one should make their job easy.

manjgu wrote: . NDTV is projecting major major gains for BJP !!! just saw the youtube...

If indeed there has been lesser green voting, that would suggest they know what's going to happen.

About NDTV, I would caution against using their predictions as a guideline. Was it Bihar (?) 2 years ago where they did a very massive survey/exit poll and they called the election in favor of BJP easily (they had 3 times the usual number of surveyors, 70,000 or something like that) and the election went against BJP by a whisker. And even though BJP got 25% of the the state vote, they lost the election. Prannoy Roy projected a big victory for BJP- one could see the glee rise gradually among the panelists as the actual results started to roll in hour by hour.

Another possibility: NDTV might be trying to get some people complacent and not vote.

I agree with the poster "Supratik"- the best outcome from AP and TG would be the wipeout of the perpetual backstabber 'Chandranna'. I hope he will be reduced to next to nothing in LS. Modi sarkar #2 should really go after this snake and find out where all the money given to AP went. I saw a news ticker a few days ago that Jayadev Galla - a particularly odious TDP fellow - got raided by IT.

KL Dubey wrote:With the large amounts of pooth-level data available to Dr. BB, he has bosted detailed statistics (pehind baywall) confirming large drop in "greenery" in and around bolling stations in Western UP. There is no doubt about it.
.

From Praveen Patil's article, don't know how reliable it is.
His Mapi has been wrong in last couple of elections. Though he was spot on in 2014, UP and Bihar elections.

Therefore, yesterday, after the poll when we claimed that there was a decline of around 6% in Muslim turnout, we were actually speaking through our math models which are now confidently predicting the turnout numbers from yesterday’s election.

Jamwal has his anti-Sikh bias but no that is not the case. The Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists are divided between those that support the nationalists and those that have bought into the C-system propaganda that the RSS is going to finish their separate identity and absorb them into Hindu society. Constitutionally and legally they are already considered Hindu. There is considerable anxiety about this.

Dubeyji, TDP has considerable hold in AP and Naidu has done good work although not totally free of corruption and familyvad. My guess is after election he is going to crawl back to NDA and Modi/Shah are going to extract their pound of flesh.

Congis are playing a nyay anthem in cinema hall interval time

If jagan wins andhra he might be willing to play ball with nda in exchange for goi uprooting and damaging the tdp financial ecosystem

Not a good idea. WIth two powerful EJs i.e. Jagan and PK running the show AP is going to become the other AP (Arunachal Pradesh). EJs rarely change colour even if they pretend to do so. There is no choice but Naidu at present but he should be made to make concessions beforehand just like what happened to Nitish and Uddhav.

Suraj wrote:A cursory look over statewise voter turnout data in the GEs in the 2000s and that in 2014 indicates that a large part of the bump comes from significantly higher poll turnouts in UP, RJ, MH, BH and the NE states. These states are again reporting high polling rates in phase 1 this time.

Another piece of information is that 2014 was not only the highwater mark in voter turnout, but also was the lowest popular vote share ever obtained by a government gaining a simple majority. The reason there was controversy about 'only 31% vote share' was that no party with a simple majority ever polled that few overall vote fraction. Of course, that also suggests that 2014 might have shown the highest vote share to seat share conversion too.

2014 was also the second time that INC did not win the popular vote, after 1977. Historically, INC has always won the popular vote, except in 1977 and 2014. Yes, even in 1996, 1998 and 1999 it won the popular vote comfortably, even though BJP was single largest party then.

BJP's share of popular vote has been:

• Year %PopularVote
  1984 7.75%
  1989 11.36%
  1991 20.04%
  1996 20.29%
  1998 25.59%
  1999 23.75%
  2004 22.16%
  2009 18.80%
  2014 31.34%

It is too early to make this conclusion. Only 91/543 constituencies have voted so far. After April 23rd, a better conclusion can be made.

11 April 91
18 April 97
23 April 115
29 April 71
6 May 51
12 May 59
19 May 59

SriKumar wrote:

manjgu wrote: . NDTV is projecting major major gains for BJP !!! just saw the youtube...

If indeed there has been lesser green voting, that would suggest they know what's going to happen.

About NDTV, I would caution against using their predictions as a guideline. Was it Bihar (?) 2 years ago where they did a very massive survey/exit poll and they called the election in favor of BJP easily (they had 3 times the usual number of surveyors, 70,000 or something like that) and the election went against BJP by a whisker. And even though BJP got 25% of the the state vote, they lost the election. Prannoy Roy projected a big victory for BJP- one could see the glee rise gradually among the panelists as the actual results started to roll in hour by hour.

Another possibility: NDTV might be trying to get some people complacent and not vote.

If someone is pro bjp he ll probably not watch rrndtv in the first place to go complacent after it. The channel has poor viewership . And if crams ji stops watching it it ll decline by another 50%.

Supratik wrote:Not a good idea. WIth two powerful EJs i.e. Jagan and PK running the show AP is going to become the other AP (Arunachal Pradesh). EJs rarely change colour even if they pretend to do so. There is no choice but Naidu at present but he should be made to make concessions beforehand just like what happened to Nitish and Uddhav.

CBN has burned all bridges back to the NDA. Unless he gets significant seats and BJP is considerably less than 240, don't expect any reconciliation.

Supratik wrote:Jamwal has his anti-Sikh bias but no that is not the case. The Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists are divided between those that support the nationalists and those that have bought into the C-system propaganda that the RSS is going to finish their separate identity and absorb them into Hindu society. Constitutionally and legally they are already considered Hindu. There is considerable anxiety about this.

Supratik ji,
I didnt come across any such concerns anywhere till now.
What you attribute are usual talking points fanned by usual suspects in BIF academia & media.
All the Dharmic faiths coexisted in relative harmony yet competing productively for millennia there is zero grounding to the claim that some how suddenly considerable "new" anxiety has been created vis a vis Hindus.

Anyway my simple point to Jamwal ji is not to walk straight into BIF traps .

No it comes from considerable reading both BIF and PIF material and it is an old anxiety. Second I already said this is fanned by C-system. Third INC is going to do well IN PJ and not because Amrinder is some knight in shining armor but at least partly due to this reason.

Mort, in politics there is no permanent burning of bridges. Nitish the most clean NDA partner did similar tantrums but when he found out that Laloo family had started looting right after taking office in the cabin next to him he ran for his life and came back to NDA. Naidu is going to come back if BJP gets even 8% vote. He may not have any other option to stay relevant for the next 5 yrs. Otherwise Jagan and PK are going to take up the space and I am sure nationalists will not like that.

Mort Walker wrote:It is too early to make this conclusion. Only 91/543 constituencies have voted so far. After April 23rd, a better conclusion can be made.

11 April 91
18 April 97
23 April 115
29 April 71
6 May 51
12 May 59
19 May 59

I haven’t made the conclusion you imply - I said the polling rate in phase 1 corresponded to what was the case in 2014 . It’s the part you quoted in bold - please reread it - I made a factual assertion .

There’s lots of polling turnout data in the ECI link I offered . I’m being entirely data driven here - UP, MP, MH and RJ all traditionally record between high 40 to high 50% turn outs and in both 2014 and in the applicable cases in 2019, they have polled substantially higher turnouts .

Besides Modi/Shah are Gujjus and not sentimental or egoistic like us Bongs. So they will make a deal if it benefits their dhanda. In the case of Modi/Shah the dhanda is nation building and keeping it safe for dharmics. So I strongly believe that they will have a deal with Naidu post-elections if they win. As for Naidu he will have no other option.

Supratik wrote:No it comes from considerable reading both BIF and PIF material and it is an old anxiety. Second I already said this is fanned by C-system. Third INC is going to do well IN PJ and not because Amrinder is some knight in shining armor but at least partly due to this reason.

Now you are suddenly referring to Amarinder - and making broad baseless claims .
Jumping from topics randomly wont make a productive discussion - first when the topic was Sikhism & Khalistanis you proferred some navel gazing tidbit that there is some anxiety amongst the dharmic panths(bringing them all in in a discussion frankly unrelated to them) - when all of them are being equally besieged by predatory abhrahamic faiths & the powerful forces abroad which back them.

I was making a simple point that there is a global conspiracy/reaction behind the khalistani resurgence in the last few years as NaMo/RSS is trying to put an end to their menace and you want to say "there is old anxiety" amongst the various panths to divert the discussion.
If i use your line of argument - then if someone says to me that all the Hindus are being targeted as a group by EJs in AP & RSS and Hindu orgs are fighting against them, i will be jumping in and saying "there is anxiety amongst Hindu castes that RSS will erode them of their "caste identity" & the useless one upmanship historically existing amongst the castes and this is being used by congie system to create differences" as if its a deep relevant insight suddenly discovered & needs immediate redressal.

Krita wrote: From Praveen Patil's article, don't know how reliable it is.
His Mapi has been wrong in last couple of elections. Though he was spot on in 2014, UP and Bihar elections.

Which elections specifically was he wrong in, and in what manner ?

Suraj wrote:

Krita wrote: From Praveen Patil's article, don't know how reliable it is.
His Mapi has been wrong in last couple of elections. Though he was spot on in 2014, UP and Bihar elections.

Which elections specifically was he wrong in, and in what manner ?

Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and MP elections. His Karnataka projections were also not clear. Only in Chattisgarh he had got the projections wrong by a big margin.

Lilo, you are getting personal. No more discussions with you on the subject.

PP got Delhi right but late and not to the extent of the sweep. He got BH right but again late. RJ, MP, CG he was dependent more on modeling rather than ground intelligence probably due to lack of funds. This time he has people on the ground. So he is mapping ground data onto his model and predicting.

Supratik wrote:Lilo, you are getting personal. No more discussions with you on the subject.

Likewise to the bolded part, as i only accept relevant points - i have not been personal there is simply no relevance to your points .

Suraj wrote: I haven’t made the conclusion you imply - I said the polling rate in phase 1 corresponded to what was the case in 2014 . It’s the part you quoted in bold - please reread it - I made a factual assertion .

There’s lots of polling turnout data in the ECI link I offered . I’m being entirely data driven here - UP, MP, MH and RJ all traditionally record between high 40 to high 50% turn outs and in both 2014 and in the applicable cases in 2019, they have polled substantially higher turnouts .

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something here.



The data is limited at this point in time given the applicable constituencies. It may be true for Phase 1, but the rest of UP, Bihar, WB, and MH have not yet voted and they will most likely make or break this election. In state elections in MP, CG and RJ, lower turnout was to the detriment of the BJP.

KL Dubey wrote:I agree with the poster "Supratik"- the best outcome from AP and TG would be the wipeout of the perpetual backstabber 'Chandranna'. I hope he will be reduced to next to nothing in LS. Modi sarkar #2 should really go after this snake and find out where all the money given to AP went. I saw a news ticker a few days ago that Jayadev Galla - a particularly odious TDP fellow - got raided by IT.

The mods have clearly mentioned no more discussion on AP & TS. I am surprised people are still so enamored of discussing it.
Dubey saar vaaru, please do educate me on the backstabbing you have come to notice by Chandranna with data, and how it cannot be attributed to politics that benefited the people of AP and thereby the nation as well. Else, rest in peace.

We all want Modi to win at the national level, lets keep our eyes on that goal

SridharMatlaparthi wrote:

KL Dubey wrote:I agree with the poster "Supratik"- the best outcome from AP and TG would be the wipeout of the perpetual backstabber 'Chandranna'. I hope he will be reduced to next to nothing in LS. Modi sarkar #2 should really go after this snake and find out where all the money given to AP went. I saw a news ticker a few days ago that Jayadev Galla - a particularly odious TDP fellow - got raided by IT.

The mods have clearly mentioned no more discussion on AP & TS. I am surprised people are still so enamored of discussing it.
Dubey saar vaaru, please do educate me on the backstabbing you have come to notice by Chandranna with data, and how it cannot be attributed to politics that benefited the people of AP and thereby the nation as well. Else, rest in peace.

We all want Modi to win at the national level, lets keep our eyes on that goal

Don't rake up the muck again. Go back and read the archives. It's all there.

Krita wrote:

Suraj wrote: Which elections specifically was he wrong in, and in what manner ?

Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and MP elections. His Karnataka projections were also not clear. Only in Chattisgarh he had got the projections wrong by a big margin.

His data was correct, but lower turnout was the key in these states. In MP and CG these states had about 3 terms of BJP administration so there was voter complacency.

I agree PP (and pretty much everyone else) got CG wrong . However I can’t agree on MP and RJ . Close contests were projected, even with just ‘modeling’ . It’s also important to eliminate personal ‘what Id like to see happening’ bias on ones own part and his language.

chetak wrote:

SridharMatlaparthi wrote:
The mods have clearly mentioned no more discussion on AP & TS. I am surprised people are still so enamored of discussing it.
Dubey saar vaaru, please do educate me on the backstabbing you have come to notice by Chandranna with data, and how it cannot be attributed to politics that benefited the people of AP and thereby the nation as well. Else, rest in peace.

We all want Modi to win at the national level, lets keep our eyes on that goal

Don't rake up the muck again. Go back and read the archives. It's all there.

With due respect sir, have been a long time lurker and have followed the politics thread as well.
, will take your advice, no more posts, irrespective of deserved /undeserved abuse

Krita wrote: His Mapi has been wrong in last couple of elections. Though he was spot on in 2014, UP and Bihar elections.

Therefore, yesterday, after the poll when we claimed that there was a decline of around 6% in Muslim turnout, we were actually speaking through our math models which are now confidently predicting the turnout numbers from yesterday’s election.

Analytics engines are "only as good as the data they get". BB has himself clarified that his teams in MP=RJ-CG were very small in number (lack of funds). Still he predicted MP and RG within error margin of voteshare, and he admitted his data was not enough to pick up the trends in CG.

This time he seems to have deployed a very large ground force. From what I can see, he is reaping the harvest of "big data" - it is coming fast, on-stream, and in huge volumes. It is also true that he now has much less of an "excuse" to be wrong about LS 2019. The stakes are high for him too. I hope he succeeds.

chetak wrote:Don't rake up the muck again. Go back and read the archives. It's all there.

OK, I did not know the Mods prohibited discussion on AP/TG. I only repeated what I have been saying before. Nothing new. Moving on.

Mort Walker wrote:Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something here.

The data is limited at this point in time given the applicable constituencies. It may be true for Phase 1, but the rest of UP, Bihar, WB, and MH have not yet voted and they will most likely make or break this election. In state elections in MP, CG and RJ, lower turnout was to the detriment of the BJP.

Please see the words on my part you originally quoted in bold: "These states are again reporting high polling rates in phase 1 this time."

That is all I said - their phase 1 trend matches phase 1 2014 (and subsequently overall 2014 trend). UP/MH/BH all had higher turnouts in early 2014 polling itself, than they did in prior elections.

You're simply saying "there are more phases". I think we can all agree that's the case You advised me it's too early to make some 'conclusion'. I'm stating I didn't make a conclusion in the first place - I stated available data. Please don't put words in my mouth.

Mort Walker wrote:

Supratik wrote:Not a good idea. WIth two powerful EJs i.e. Jagan and PK running the show AP is going to become the other AP (Arunachal Pradesh). EJs rarely change colour even if they pretend to do so. There is no choice but Naidu at present but he should be made to make concessions beforehand just like what happened to Nitish and Uddhav.

CBN has burned all bridges back to the NDA. Unless he gets significant seats and BJP is considerably less than 240, don't expect any reconciliation.

Supratik wrote:Mort, in politics there is no permanent burning of bridges. Nitish the most clean NDA partner did similar tantrums but when he found out that Laloo family had started looting right after taking office in the cabin next to him he ran for his life and came back to NDA. Naidu is going to come back if BJP gets even 8% vote. He may not have any other option to stay relevant for the next 5 yrs. Otherwise Jagan and PK are going to take up the space and I am sure nationalists will not like that.

Supratik wrote:Besides Modi/Shah are Gujjus and not sentimental or egoistic like us Bongs. So they will make a deal if it benefits their dhanda. In the case of Modi/Shah the dhanda is nation building and keeping it safe for dharmics. So I strongly believe that they will have a deal with Naidu post-elections if they win. As for Naidu he will have no other option.

people perhaps forget the extent of nitish kumar's opposition to modi. He was the champion of the anti-modi brigade for a long time, made a number of humiliating 'crossing the line' remarks about him and almost got him killed in the patna blasts.

do remember that one of the main accused was the nephew of a MLA from nitish's JD(U). and NiKu himself left patna one some excuse so that no bullet-proof car was available for modi.

If that person can be accomodated, naidu certainly can be. Also, look at how modi approached relations with the US, a country that tried to make him a pariah.
======================

P.S. on PP/5forty3, he himself admits he got delhi & CG wrong but in others, including RJ, MP and KA, he was well within the statistical margins. fact is, the results in those places flipped on a few thousand, if not a few hundred votes and NOTA. no psephologist can give you accurate prediction for that.

Rahul M wrote:P.S. on PP/5forty3, he himself admits he got delhi & CG wrong but in others, including RJ, MP and KA, he was well within the statistical margins. fact is, the results in those places flipped on a few thousand, if not a few hundred votes and NOTA. no psephologist can give you accurate prediction for that.

That's right. He's been fairly clear on explaining how to interpret his data, and his margin of error. People tend to view his utterances like they're sitting in front of an astrologer who's going to divine the exact result. That's unfortunately not possible, and not what he does - he tracks (to the extent he can given funding) the booth level trends and projects voteshare out of that. Small margins + NOTAs are particularly hard to track; very few people openly state they chose NOTA unless they're publicity hungry twitterati trying to make a point.

Suraj wrote:

Mort Walker wrote:Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something here.

The data is limited at this point in time given the applicable constituencies. It may be true for Phase 1, but the rest of UP, Bihar, WB, and MH have not yet voted and they will most likely make or break this election. In state elections in MP, CG and RJ, lower turnout was to the detriment of the BJP.

Please see the words on my part you originally quoted in bold: "These states are again reporting high polling rates in phase 1 this time."

That is all I said - their phase 1 trend matches phase 1 2014 (and subsequently overall 2014 trend). UP/MH/BH all had higher turnouts in early 2014 polling itself, than they did in prior elections.

You're simply saying "there are more phases". I think we can all agree that's the case You advised me it's too early to make some 'conclusion'. I'm stating I didn't make a conclusion in the first place - I stated available data. Please don't put words in my mouth.

I think we're agreeing here; however I did not advise and made a general observation - if it appeared that way as an insult or otherwise, then I apologize. The last thing most/many/several of us want is to get too confident or complacent since higher turnout will be favorable to the BJP. We saw this clearly in the MP state elections because MP flipped with around 6 seats (~5000 votes) in the Jabalpur area from BJP to INC.