The next war in the Persian Gulf

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 21 Jul 2019 04:00

lack of British combat ships due to budget cuts reason for Iran seizing Brit tankers https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ly-making/

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 21 Jul 2019 18:18

Didn't the British pompously board an Iranian tanker? Now threatening vely vely vely vely glave consequences etc. Probably will do some spectacular TomClancyish Special Fauj operation? Ending with 007 Holding The British End Up etc.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 22 Jul 2019 13:43

UK confronted with limited options due to
- cold vibes with Europe
- Undependable Trump
- Struggling economy limited naval options

May resort to back channel diplomacy

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... r-standoff

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 23 Jul 2019 01:59

We often bash ourselves for decades of neutrality that has kept us off the world stage. This is one of those times where the benefits of neutrality become apparent. Back around 2003-2004, we had a lot of Indians (even on this forum) clamoring for India to join the US invasion of Iraq. Aren't we relieved that didn't happen?

I would argue that neutrality has served India well. Or at least, it has served us better than the alternative. We should stay 100% out of any new war on Iran, and provide no assistance whatsoever to the US\Saudi\Isreal\etc. Even if that is viewed as weakness by some.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 23 Jul 2019 06:02

Singha wrote:https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1 ... 7519571968

UK marines detained one iranian tanker carrying oil to syria in gibralter. never mind there are no UN sanctions on iran and EU sanctions restrains export from EU to syria, not from anyone like iran to syria.

my prediction is the iranians will look to id and detain some british ship soon.

Way to make a prediction Singha saar

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 23 Jul 2019 16:04

IndraD wrote:lack of British combat ships due to budget cuts reason for Iran seizing Brit tankers https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ly-making/

Their existing Type 45 destoyers break down once they hit warm waters.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 23 Jul 2019 16:44

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/ ... 50760.html
Iraqi PM orders to rein in Iran militia due to US pressure

There has been concern, especially in the US, that there are factions within those groups that are affiliated with Iran and that they could pose a threat to Iraq and to US interests and personnel inside of Iraq," Jamjoom said.

"Because of mounting tension in the region between the US and Iran, there is a lot of focus right now on these militia groups inside of Iraq that might be affiliated with Iran," he added. "There has been building pressure on Abdul Mahdi to try to rein in Iranian influence inside of Iraq and to try to ensure that Iran does not play an oversized role right now in Iraq."

Monday's decree came two weeks after three mortar shells landed on Balad military base, the first of several recent unclaimed attacks on bases in Iraq hosting US forces, and on a site used by US oil giant ExxonMobil.

Local officials blamed the militias for one of the incidents, but Iran has not commented.

The US, meanwhile, evacuated hundreds of diplomatic staff from its embassy in Baghdad last month, citing unspecified threats from Iran, and has deployed thousands more troops to the Middle East since May.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 23 Jul 2019 18:57

For the sake of those who aren't familiar with the merchant navy, the tanker, Stena Impero is Swedish owned and registered in the UK, hence the Union Jack. It is most likely the Captain will be arrested and release on bail immediately on the basis of the alleged charges of it ramming into a tiny boat/skip (hogwash). This isn't just a tit for tat reaction as speculated by the English language press, but is sending a message of will to their Arab neighbours across the Strait to point out their vulnerabilities. The tanker was intended to pick up oil products from Jubail in KSA, one of the largest refinery sites (Aramco), now imagine the cryptic messaging to the Saudis - we will disrupt your business as long as USS Abraham Lincoln is off the coast of Sohar.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Jul 2019 19:53

9 Indian crew members released, the rest make us proud as well.
Adminullahs, I suggest that we open an Bharat-Iran Relations thread. It is a bit pompous to have only Indo-UK and Indo-US threads while delegating the real neighbors to "war in Persian gulf" etc.
We need Bharat-Iran, Bharat-Indonesia (what do they call themselves, BTW) and Bharat-Myanmar threads to really understand the neighbors of India.
Bharat-Iran is esp. relevant because of the coming Commonwealth of Balochistan, Pakhtoonistan, Balwaristan etc who constitute the Shia World, co-mentored by India and Iran.

US interests are more or less limited to strutting around in aircraft carriers and supertankers. Currently begging Terroristan for permission to disengage backsides from Afghanistan. India OTOH has to live in the neighborhood and face the ground realities from a winner's perspective.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Aug 2019 05:21

In a major development, Iran and Russia are from latest reports to begin naval exercises in the Persian Gulf, thus far in the Caspian Sea , plus the use of Bandar-e-Bushehr and Chah Bahar as forward bases for its warships and nuclear subs, guarded by Russian special forces and naval " advisors".This will prove to be a counterweight to the USN's 5th. Fleet based at Bahrein.

It is no secret that the US has been covertly planning for regime change in Iran in support of its despotic adventurist Saudi monarchy whose Yemeni dream is turning into a nightmare.The Southern army has taken Aden and they're supported by the UAE, now at odds with their Sunni Saudi brothers on Yemen.The Iranians support the rebel Houthis who will probably benefit from the split between the Sunni states.

The US trying to cobble up an international naval task force to combat Iran in Gulf waters and attempting to seize its released tanker in Gibraltar like pirates, with the Israeli navy also keen to make a foray into the Gulf, is the cocktail for a perfect storm in the world's most important energy rich region.For India, a partner in the development of the port but acting like a scaredy cat because of US bullying, the time is fast approaching we we will have to get off the fence and state our national interests clearly.

The entrance of Russia into the Gulf waters, India's most important defence partner, is to check the antics of the Yanquis who are trying their utmost in upending the Iranian regime by any means.Just as Russia intervened in Syria to stem the tide of ISIS, secretly supported by the Saudi- US alliance, so too is the strong possibility of Russian maritime and strategic strike aircraft also using Iranian bases as they did with occasional pit stops in their bombing runs in the Syrian conflict i the event of any action against Iran or its own maritime assets.

India which is also going to sign logistic agreements with Russia similiar to that signed with the US is going to be caught in a cleft stick if a spat between both the US and Russia takes place over Iran.Our entire energy supplies will also be gravely at risk in any conflict in the Gulf. Imagine the situ if the US demands use of Indian bases in a spat with Russia in the Gulf or Arabian Sea, or vice- versa! The joker in the pack is China who may also jump onto the Iranian bandwagon.They've supplied much weaponry to it in the past and have their foothold at Gwadar, not too far away thanks to Pak. The GOI needs to urgently brainstorm its diplomatic and military strategy in the eveng of such a crisis.

Meanwhile the US continues to berate and bully India over the S- 400 acquisition from Russia.The forthcoming Indo- Russian meet in Oct. may offer clues as to our course of action.India also needs to take a swift and calculated decision about Chah Bahar, meant to be a strategic port for us to outflank Pak and the route to Afg. Central Asia and Russia.We have huge interests in a close relationship with Iran.These must not be sacrificed at the altar of American bullying and insidious attempts at regime change in our very own region.

PS: Adding fuel to the impending conflagration is perfidious Albion, Britain, which is sending extra warships to its naval base at Bahrein HMS Juffair in support of the US coalition of the insane. Two type 23 frigates, the Montrose stationed there with a few MCMs, plus the Kent on its way from Portsmouth are being joined by one type 45-the Duncan .Reports suggest that another type 45, the Defender is also being tasked for the same.The type 45 " D" class DDGs however are plagued with propulsion problems and some warm water operation glitches.Iranian IRG swarm boat tactics will keep them busy and occupied .

It is interesting to see how the erstwhile " Bush- Blair" alliance that started the illegal and monstrous Iraq war, based upon a pack of lies, is getting replicated by a "Trump- Boris " one, with the outcome a definite similar disaster, on an even greater scale. But first Boris has to handle Brexit before he can strut around the Persian Gulf like Trump's precious peacock. The forerunner of course was Mrs.T. Reagan's pet poodle! How history repeats itself, the first as tragedy, the second as farce.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 03 Sep 2019 19:39

https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-am ... f-1.895369

China: Considering

“If there happens to be a very unsafe situation we will consider having our navy escort our commercial vessels,” the Chinese ambassador to the UAE, Ni Jian, told Reuters in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. “We are studying the US proposal on Gulf escort arrangements,” the embassy later said.

Australia: Considering

Defence Minister Linda Reynolds said on Sunday that “the request the US has made is a serious and complex one. That's why we're giving this request serious consideration. We will ultimately, as we always do, decide what's in our sovereign interests".

Italy, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, India: Undecided

These countries have not announced a decision.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/ ... W5uXTPVK00

Japan will not join a U.S.-led security mission to protect merchant vessels passing through key Middle Eastern waterways, but will consider deploying its naval force independently, the Yomiuri newspaper reported Tuesday.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Sep 2019 22:53

With the US abandoning the Iran- EU/ West deal over N- weapons and limiting N- research, imposing sanctionz galore and threatening military attack , Iran has restarted its N-centifruges and has announced that the previously detained tanker and its cargo of oil, released by Gibraltar and spotted off the Syrian coast, has been "sold".No buyer has been revealed, but a third 'party could be involved acting as a a broker or even biyer.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Sep 2019 01:17

Looks like no war in Persian Gulf except in Yemen.
Now that Bolton has left.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 14 Sep 2019 11:41

According to twitter Aramco Oil facilities are on fire and gun fights are breaking out in Saudi Arabia.

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23 ... rend_click

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 14 Sep 2019 11:43

September 14, 2019 / 11:00 AM / Updated 25 minutes ago
Fires from drone attacks on two Aramco sites under control -Saudi govt spokesman

1 Min Read

RIYADH, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Drone attacks on two Saudi Aramco factories in Abqaiq and Khurais on Saturday caused fires that the company’s security forces brought under control, a spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s interior ministry said in a statement.

The comments, published by sthe tate news media, did not identify the source of the attack. (Reporting by Ahmed Tolba; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

https://uk.reuters.com/article/saudi-oi ... KL5N26503O

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Sep 2019 02:32

Attack takes out half of KSA's production, per CNN

Drone strikes on crucial Saudi Arabian oil facilities have disrupted about half of the kingdom's oil capacity, or 5% of the daily global oil supply, people with knowledge of Saudi's oil operations told CNN Business.
Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saturday took responsibility for the attacks, saying 10 drones targeted state-owned Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, according to the Houthi-run Al-Masirah news agency.
Five million barrels per day of crude production have been impacted after fires raged at the sites, one of them the world's largest oil production facility, people with knowledge of the kingdom's operations said. The latest OPEC figures from August 2019 put the total Saudi production at 9.8 million barrels per day.
A source told CNN Business that Aramco "hopes to have that capacity restored within days."

(By which time the Houthis could knock out the other half...)

NEVER mess with Pootin.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Sep 2019 04:38

ramana wrote:Looks like no war in Persian Gulf except in Yemen.
Now that Bolton has left.

Spoke too soon!!!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Sep 2019 05:16

ramana: many worrying implications. 1450km range, significant weapon load; total precision. Think about that.... (maybe best not to discuss)

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 15 Sep 2019 07:18

Pompeo and Graham calling for more mayhem and pretending to be experts in this area of the world.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Sep 2019 07:27

Pootin? Or should it be the Ayatollah-too-many!
Whatever the reason for the " drone attack" or not , as the case may be, its bad nooz for Soothi Barbaria and its mad despot MBS. Its Gulfie allies have tired of the Yemen war- they have no stomach for it, preferring the fleshpots of Dubai instead and the crippling cost of the war is finally telling upon their economies. The planned sale of Saudi-Aramco shares , unheard of for oil producing monarchies, soaked to the gills with petro- gas, indicates a deep crisis going on.There must be much jubilation in Teheran and quiet satisfaction in the Kremlin, at the discomfiture and burnt backside of the despot who wanted a war against Iran and threatened Pootin over Syria in his own dacha!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Sep 2019 10:03

Do they have lamp-posts in Riyadh I wonder. Scratch that: tough to hang a headless sheikh. Attack on oil refineries follows attacks on airport terminals. Now no place in KSA is safe. Buggers are going to be shooting into the sky in panic all over the place.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Sep 2019 10:05

CNN National Security Analyst Peter Bergen said there have been more than 200 drone attacks launched by Houthi rebels from Yemen into Saudi Arabia, and none have been as effective as Saturday's attack, lending credence to the belief that the attack did not originate from Yemen.
preliminary indications are that the attacks did not originate from Yemen and likely originated from Iraq, according to a source with knowledge of the incident. The same official said the damage was caused by an armed drone attack.

And Pompeo blames it on Eyeran with no evidence as usual:

"Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen," Pompeo continued, providing no evidence that Iran was behind the attacks.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle weighed in on Pompeo's characterizations of the attack.
"This is such irresponsible simplification and it's how we get into dumb wars of choice," Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut tweeted in response to Pompeo.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 15 Sep 2019 10:07

UlanBatori wrote:ramana: many worrying implications. 1450km range, significant weapon load; total precision. Think about that.... (maybe best not to discuss)

I hope we are studying this attack in detail.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 15 Sep 2019 10:56

I have been reading the news and am thoroughly confused: what exactly did the drones do? Were they:
1. Carrying missiles/bombs that they fired/released against the oil refineries?
2. Converted into Kamikaze drones and launched into the refineries?
3. Some other electronic attack to trigger a fire at the refinery?

Also: how did these drones fly to this massive range at high altitude without discovery from Saudi radars? If they flew at low altitude to avoid discovery, how did they achieve this range?

Finally: in both cases, how was navigation performed so precisely? Man-in-the-loop visual flying? Terrain recognition flight?

All of these seems pretty fancy for the Yemenis to pull off alone.

Alternatively, it could be cheap hand-held drones attached with explosives launched from just outside the refinery perimeter by some infiltrators/saudi-traitors collaborating with the Yemenis.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 15 Sep 2019 18:55

The military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future.

He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49699429

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 15 Sep 2019 19:39

people have been launching drones made u know where against Russian base at khmeimim for sometime is it the reply via iran via yemen. Interesting

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Sep 2019 21:25

vivek_ahuja wrote:I have been reading the news and am thoroughly confused: what exactly did the drones do? Were they:
1. Carrying missiles/bombs that they fired/released against the oil refineries?
2. Converted into Kamikaze drones and launched into the refineries?
3. Some other electronic attack to trigger a fire at the refinery?

Also: how did these drones fly to this massive range at high altitude without discovery from Saudi radars? If they flew at low altitude to avoid discovery, how did they achieve this range?

Finally: in both cases, how was navigation performed so precisely? Man-in-the-loop visual flying? Terrain recognition flight?

All of these seems pretty fancy for the Yemenis to pull off alone.

Alternatively, it could be cheap hand-held drones attached with explosives launched from just outside the refinery perimeter by some infiltrators/saudi-traitors collaborating with the Yemenis.

Somewhere I read that ppl were checking whether it was cruise missiles. I guess those are also "drones".
So are soosai bummers who managed to go strap bakPaks to the tanks and set them off from outside the perimeter. Or a drone that came over with a transmitter.
I don't believe anything about this except that they seem to have taken out 50% of KSA production for at least a few days, maybe more. With more to come. The "we did this with DRONES" may be a piskops to scare the insurance companies into hiking Saudi costs 1000%. Very cost-effective tactic, hain? Saudis cannot deny without giving out too much info.

How many ppl do you think died in this? No announcement so far: my guess is 50 to 200 at least. There was probably flaming crude splattering in all directions. Probably many desis among those too.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 15 Sep 2019 21:45

Can a swarm of commercial DJI type drones strapped with small explosives be involved... you can easily fly them from 5KM out to target with very high precision. I suspect they can be easily programmed to fly to target on their own without any external data link. So once you smuggle them into a 5KM range of a target and release them the internal GPS programming will be sufficient to guide them. Countermeasures that will 1) Shotgun pellet type hard kill 2) Passive pigeon nets/string type for entanglement 3) Electromagnetic countermeasures to fry their electronics 4) A counterdrone drone which maintains the perimeter

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 15 Sep 2019 21:55

^Target being an oil refinery, they probably don't need much of an explosive payload either.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 15 Sep 2019 22:10

See, the thing is: if they did have cheap hand-held stuff launched from just outside the perimeter, then you can expect the Saudis to crack down hard on that kind of future repeat action. They will just establish a wide no-entry zone with shoot-on-sight ROE. And that would make this event a one-off unique event that is unlikely to be repeated.

On the other hand, if this was a long-range drone, the Saudis are going to be shitting their pants right now about what the future entails.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 15 Sep 2019 22:14

UlanBatori wrote:I don't believe anything about this except that they seem to have taken out 50% of KSA production for at least a few days, maybe more. With more to come. The "we did this with DRONES" may be a piskops to scare the insurance companies into hiking Saudi costs 1000%. Very cost-effective tactic, hain? Saudis cannot deny without giving out too much info.

How many ppl do you think died in this? No announcement so far: my guess is 50 to 200 at least. There was probably flaming crude splattering in all directions. Probably many desis among those too.

The results for the attack have been truly spectacular for the Yemenis. I mean, good lord. Taking out 50% of a country's oil production (especially an oil-producing nation) in one swipe is shockingly impressive.

Not sure about people dying, though. These refineries, big as they are, are not densely manned (comparatively speaking). Also, unless these were large drones with warheads, the fires can be started small and build up into something massive...but which allow people to evacuate in time.

At the same time, I don't believe the "no casualties" line being towed by the KSA government. That seems a bit too clean.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 15 Sep 2019 23:38

tandav wrote:Can a swarm of commercial DJI type drones strapped with small explosives be involved... you can easily fly them from 5KM out to target with very high precision. I suspect they can be easily programmed to fly to target on their own without any external data link. So once you smuggle them into a 5KM range of a target and release them the internal GPS programming will be sufficient to guide them. Countermeasures that will 1) Shotgun pellet type hard kill 2) Passive pigeon nets/string type for entanglement 3) Electromagnetic countermeasures to fry their electronics 4) A counterdrone drone which maintains the perimeter

Probably some form of shaped charge was used.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 15 Sep 2019 23:43

vivek_ahuja wrote:See, the thing is: if they did have cheap hand-held stuff launched from just outside the perimeter, then you can expect the Saudis to crack down hard on that kind of future repeat action. They will just establish a wide no-entry zone with shoot-on-sight ROE. And that would make this event a one-off unique event that is unlikely to be repeated.

On the other hand, if this was a long-range drone, the Saudis are going to be shitting their pants right now about what the future entails.

Even then the perpetrators have achieved one thing. Raising security and vigilance costs for Saudi Arabia. Infact Saudi arabia is already dealing threats ranging from missiles and rockets to drones. But as they say for all the security measures put in place the enemy has to be lucky only once.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 15 Sep 2019 23:53

vivek_ahuja wrote:See, the thing is: if they did have cheap hand-held stuff launched from just outside the perimeter, then you can expect the Saudis to crack down hard on that kind of future repeat action. They will just establish a wide no-entry zone with shoot-on-sight ROE. And that would make this event a one-off unique event that is unlikely to be repeated.

On the other hand, if this was a long-range drone, the Saudis are going to be shitting their pants right now about what the future entails.

What it was launched 5km outside perimeter, is there sufficient time for countermeasures. You have to watch over and guard over a large area (5kmx5km refinery and 5km outside that (5+5)^2 - 5^2 = 75 sqkm). At 5km out the drone travelling at 60kmph takes less than 5mins (say they launch from 4km out) to reach targets. I am sure Reliance and other refinery majors are taking copious notes.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 16 Sep 2019 00:04

Only one country capable of pulling off something like this and it is not eiyran and certainly not yemen. They can do it only if supplied by Roos.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Sep 2019 08:36

Vivek, you are spot on.Drones used by the Houthis or anyone else would have to penetrate sophisticated Saudi
air defences relying heavily on US and western eqpt. and missiles, SAMs, etc.

The resistance to the Saudis at home is growing and drones launched at short range by sabotuers would be able to carry out these devastating attacks far more successfully. With so many oil installations in the country, they're spoilt for choice. Blaming Iran is a shallow attempt to raise anti- Iranian feeling amongst the west, giving the US and its fundoo allies a fig- leaf to threaten Iran and possibly undertake some form of justifiable military action. For the Saudis, and MBS, its a real kick in the butt with a vengeance, showing everyone in the kingdom that its prince-pretender and all the kingdom's trillions spent, can't protect its most valuable possessions from a rag-tag bunch of Yemenis! His family enemies whom he has incarcerated must be celebrating.There's a famous old saying,
" uneasy lies the head that wears the crown".

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 16 Sep 2019 09:25

My feeling is that the attacks were by `suicide' drones at short range, carried out by local infiltrators. Interestingly my book `2022, India's two front war' has a similar scenario. (The Radome of a Pak AWAC on the ground gets taken out by suicide drones, launched just outside its airbase.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 16 Sep 2019 10:36

What if this was done with just Motar shells?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Sep 2019 10:46

US seems about to attack Iran citing cruise missiles and drones from Iran. I thought they first said the attack came from Iraq?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 16 Sep 2019 10:55

Aditya_V wrote:What if this was done with just Motar shells?

My understanding is that a mortar would be fairly inaccurate at the range it would have been fired at - to hit the top of a tall oil tank. There would be a further problem with the warhead landing accurately enough to break through the top cover of the tanks - because the mortar shell wobbles more in the air, since the barrel is smooth bore and not rifled bore. It would also be far easier for security to spot a mortar team on the ground (in a flat and empty desert) than drones in the air - with the launch team being well outside the range at which they can be visually observed. Also, the warhead of a mortar shell is typically under 5kg. The drones used by the Houtis have had 18 kg warheads.