The next war in the Persian Gulf

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby mmasand » 16 Sep 2019 11:29

There's been a lot of buzz on this thread in the last two days, a couple of things that were mooted early on in the region:

1. There was ample evidence of a cruise missile/drone flying at mach speed over Kuwaiti airspace, an adventurer happened to film the bit when it flew in the vicinity of Khiran region.

2. The initial fires were significant indicating that pipelines were hit, and not the strategic storage that houses over 200 million barrels. This is Aramco's largest refinery in KSA, and perhaps the world.

3. All periphery theories are null and void, if one has been to the Aramco compound, you will know that you cannot come anywhere within 5-7kms of the fencing. Besides security in the city of Buqayq is over the top, given the previous attempts on this compund by AQAP in the previous decade. There are significant expats from US, UK, and other parts of Europe residing at the compound.

4. Saad Hariri, the PM of Lebanon and also Saudi citizen has not been summoned by MBS giving more credence to the theory that this had nothing to do with the Houthis who have taken the blame. Their spokesperson made a Baghdad Bob style presser from Hezbollah safe havens in Lebanon, claiming to have flown 10 drones over 770kms.

5. KSA does not have an air defence system for asymmetrical attacks, their current AD is very traditional including the Patriot ADS. Expect a large procurement in the coming weeks.

The scope of damage was significant, yet, will be fixed in a month or two. This has the hallmark of Quds force all over it, they are getting bold by the day and making American allies pay the price for pulling out of the JCPOA and subsequent sanctions.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby vimal » 16 Sep 2019 11:54

Hmm. It seems like what KSA desperately needs is an Akash SAM system to protect against such threats. Apparently all the current AD systems failed to stop the attac.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby anmol » 16 Sep 2019 14:17

This looks a LOT like a false flag. "Iran's attack on world oil supply" is a lot like "sarin gas attack by Assad on poor children".

Trump appoints Rand Paul for secret talks with Iran, he then says he couldmeet with Iranian President Rouhani anytime, then he fires Bolton and now this happens.

Trump Has Few Options to Respond to Saudi Oil Attack - WSJ

President faces questions about Iran strategy with depleted national-security team

Updated Sept. 15, 2019 9:06 pm ET
WASHINGTON—The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy-production system thrust PresidentTrumpinto a fierce foreign-policy crosswind, at a time when his national security team is at its thinnest point in over a year. With Iranian involvement widely suspected in Saturday’s attacks, Mr. Trump faces new questions about his Iran strategy, with a diminished set of tools available to escalate his “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions targeting the country’s economy.Mr. Trump has supported Saudi Arabia’s leaders in their war against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, even as U.S. lawmakers have soured on the conflict and grown impatient with the kingdom’s crown prince.The administration has also levied military threats against Iran, in an effort to rein in its nuclear programs and regional ambitions.

Mr. Trump is close to exhausting options for adding financial pressure on Iran. The Trump administration already has imposed some of the most stringent sanctions ever on Iran’s oil industry, refused to extend oil waivers and threatened secondary sanctions on entities that fail to comply.It has also already designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organization. The IRGC runs Tehran’s ballistic-missile programs and its specialized Quds Force has arranged weapons deliveries and advised proregime militias in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere in the region.As an added challenge, the Trump administration’s foreign-policy team has narrowed with the departure of national security adviserJohn Boltonearlier this week. Mr. Bolton was the chief architect of the Iran strategy and the third national security adviser to leave the White House since 2017. The post of director of national intelligenceis vacant, while a new secretary of defense started in July, filling a monthslong vacancy.Secretary of StateMike Pompeo,a fellow hawk, has been a steady and vocal advocate of the maximum pressure campaign since the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and six world powers. He clashed often with Mr. Bolton and now stands to have more sway over foreign policy than at any time since moving from the Central Intelligence Agency.

On Saturday, Mr. Pompeo delivered the first U.S. response to the attacks on Saudi’s oil output, blaming Iran and asserting there was no evidence the strikes came from Yemen, contrary to claims made by the Houthis there.

“We call on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran’s attacks. The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression,” the secretary said on Twitter.

It isn’t clear what further measures could be introduced to increase economic pressure on Iran.

The administration may hope that its intelligence tying Tehran to the attacks may convince more European allies to come around to Mr. Trump’s Iran strategy, despite longstanding opposition to his approach. However, on Saturday the response from other signatories to the Iran nuclear deal was slow, with only the U.K. condemning the attack.

Saturday’s attacks crippled Saudi Arabia’s oil production, forcing output to fall to around half its regular 9.8 million barrels a day.

Mr. Pompeo had said earlier this week that Mr. Trump could potentially meet with his Iranian counterpart,Hassan Rouhani,when world leaders converge on New York later this month for the United Nations General Assembly. The prospects of such a meeting now appear unlikely. Similarly, a French initiative to provide Iran economic relief from U.S. sanctions in return for its full compliance with a multinational nuclear accord seems as doomed as earlier European efforts to mediate a solution.

Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank, said this would be the worst time to give Iran sanctions relief as recommended by France, as it would be seen as giving in to blackmail.

“As the Israelis have demonstrated, sometimes only a military response to aggression from the regime in Iran and its proxies creates meaningful deterrence,” he said. “Washington can’t rely just on sanctions as its sole instrument of national power.”

The French embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.Mr. Trump has previously opted for dialogue over conflict. For instance, he shelved plans, supported by Mr. Bolton, for a retaliatory strike after Iran shot down a U.S. drone in June.

Prominent Republicans on Saturday were calling for a more aggressive response.

Sen.Lindsey Grahamof South Carolina, took to Twitter on Saturday to call on the Trump administration to prepare to retaliate against Iran for the attack, calling it another example of how the country is wreaking havoc and not interested in peace.

“It is now time for the U.S. to put on the table an attack on Iranian oil refineries if they continue their provocations or increase nuclear enrichment,” Mr. Graham said in a tweet.

Asked whether the U.S. should consider attacking Iranian oil fields, top White House adviser Kellyanne Conway said on Fox News Sunday: “This president and his national security team and Secretary Pompeo, our nation’s chief diplomat, keep many options on the table.”

She also echoed Mr. Trump’s recent assertion that he might meet with Iran’s Mr. Rouhani in two weeks. “He said he’ll consider it, and the conditions always must be right for this president to make a deal or take a meeting,” Ms. Conway said.Sen.Bob Menendez(D., NJ.), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a tweet Sunday that he strongly condemns the “brazen attacks on Saudi infrastructure and territory. Despite some ongoing policy differences with the kingdom, no nation should be subjected to these kinds of attacks on it soil and against its people.”

Mr. Trump has said there are five potential candidates to replace Mr. Bolton, including the top U.S. envoy to Iran,Brian Hook,who has led the maximum pressure campaign for over a year. Mr. Hook didn’t respond to a request for comment.

“The United States has limited options for non-escalatory intervention,” said Kirsten Fontenrose, a former director for the Persian Gulf region in the Trump National Security Council.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby chola » 16 Sep 2019 16:05

^^^ False flag or not, I can't wait for this one to kick off!

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby anmol » 16 Sep 2019 16:45

chola wrote:^^^ False flag or not, I can't wait for this one to kick off!


Except for Neocons or Neoliberals minority, american people have no appetite for war, especially in this part of the world.
Trump knows this, that is why he has resorted to just angry tweets, small missiles, drone strikes and sanctions.

But, just yesterday, this article came out:

Jeremy Corbyn could leak classified US intelligence to Russia and Iran if he becomes prime minister, think tank warns Donald Trump

With both Brois and Netanyahu in trouble, possibility of U.S. going to war with Iran is becoming more and more real.


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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2019 17:12

the pics of super precise hits on the curving (gas?) tanks looks like from a 250lb SDB or Spice sales brochure - small intelligent wing kitted cats able to glide for 100km even in gps denied env and home in on a window.

whoever did this is not-houthi, has to be a pro league player.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2019 17:15

meantime, we are still waiting on the rustom2 while houthis make merry with a 1500km uav-x drone :rotfl:

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 16 Sep 2019 17:19

on expected lines: Iran fired cruise missiles in attack on Saudi oil facility: Senior US official https://abcnews.go.com/International/ir ... itter_abcn

Tulsi on crisis: Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia's bitch is not "America First. https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status ... 51744?s=20

sat images: https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/11734 ... 09641?s=20

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 16 Sep 2019 17:21

Singha wrote:meantime, we are still waiting on the rustom2 while houthis make merry with a 1500km uav-x drone :rotfl:

your expertise and presence will be much needed Singha guru !


good thread explaining this attack was on GOSP hence much more sophisticated!
Hi Energy Twitter: today’s lesson is on the gas oil separation plant (GOSP). (Thread) All Saudi crude oil production goes from the well head (oil production well) through a gathering system and is then processed in the GOSP. Learn this acronym. It’s going to be important
https://twitter.com/AmyJaffeenergy/stat ... 68769?s=20

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 16 Sep 2019 17:58

Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it has seized a vessel in the Gulf for smuggling diesel fuel to the United Arab Emirates according to Iranian news agency ISNA
sky news https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status ... 33313?s=20

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2019 18:48

though i had taken a break from brf to start work on raising my new IBG fauj on teetar, you can be sure I will report for duty with 60mins of the red button being pressed.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Karthik S » 16 Sep 2019 19:30

Gurus conflicting opinions coming in. A) Oilfield was attacked, B ) it was staged for something else. At the moment, nothing is conclusive.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 16 Sep 2019 20:35

Any link re attacks were stage managed pls?

@Singha saar what is ur twitter handle

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby darshan » 16 Sep 2019 21:05

Why eliminate chinese hand here? They also have lot of interesting angles if their dealing with Iran is true. It also causes issues for Trump in election mode and without the advisor. And gets any action in Hong Kong to be a minor news.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby vishvak » 16 Sep 2019 21:12

The oil price growth (predicted increase) is collapsing in spite of production cuts. Methinks that post 2007-2008 economic slowdown, the rise in global economic growth is marginal. The oil glut is real and new standard s are now set by OPEC for oil reserves. Not a bad time for cashing in insurance but that won't help demand.
gloom over oil demend
From Bloomberg dot com
Last edited by vishvak on 16 Sep 2019 21:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Karthik S » 16 Sep 2019 21:13

darshan wrote:Why eliminate chinese hand here? They also have lot of interesting angles if their dealing with Iran is true. It also causes issues for Trump in election mode and without the advisor. And gets any action in Hong Kong to be a minor news.


Probability of cheen taking military action directly or indirectly that too involving a country like KSA is very remote.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Sep 2019 21:39

Lack of a few follow-ups is disappointing. What do Houthis expect? On-the-knees ceasefire plea from EmBeeEss? From the calculations, 100 % absence of KSA from the market is only 10% of the overall supply, and can be easily made up by others. Price blip not even significant, so KSO return to market will be at a very low profit or even loss. OTOH, a 100% cessation of KSA oil- along with a 1000% hike in their insurance costs - would at least slash KSA's ability, if not gungho eagerness to bomb more Yemeni refugee camps. IMO that is the only way to end this useless genocide.

Point is that if MBS signs a Biss Deal he is bound for the chopping block.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2019 22:48

IndraD wrote:Any link re attacks were stage managed pls?

@Singha saar what is ur twitter handle


@daeroplate

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 17 Sep 2019 02:41

thanks and i follow u from before ^

Putin to Saudi Arabia: Our air defenses can protect you, like they do Turkey and Iran https://www.rt.com/news/468948-putin-sa ... -missiles/

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Philip » 17 Sep 2019 06:02

Cui bono? Obviously an entity that wants Iran punished, like the attack on a Japanese tanker when its PM was in Teheran. Who is the ME leader in deep sh*t right now, beseiged with corruption allegations and with an election round the corner? His tribe has decades of stunning ops of his secret services, well within their capability to launch a false flag op, perhaps even using their resources in the kingdom masquerading as local rebels to the Houthis!
This gent has just been to the Kremlin to meet the big blini there to muster support from the Ru votebank in his land.

This attack was meticulously worked out. Only someone with expert knowledge of the facility ( from its intel) could've planned the attack. The result expected by the perpetrators is a war with Iran, a troublesome stone in his shoe with support for the Hiz, etc.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Sep 2019 10:55

Pootinji's classic comment:
[Saudi Arabia] needs to make one clever decision as Iran did buying our S-300 and as Mr Erdogan did by deciding to buy the most advanced S-400 systems from Russia” - Russian President Vladimir Putin on recent attacks on Saudi oil refineries


Rather cryptic, given how US loves S-400. I read it as an "or else" threat, like what happened to Turdogan. MBS ***CANNOT*** afford to have another hit taking out the rest of his oil producing capacity.

From what I read, oil storage as well as oil wells were/are on fire. That is not going to go out or come back on line real soon, is it? The "Houthis" can simply keep destroying faster than MBS can rebuild.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby V_Raman » 17 Sep 2019 12:42

What is the NATO equivalent of S300/S400. Is it a set of systems? Why can’t KSA get that?

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 17 Sep 2019 13:05

What about India’s relation with Iran or is India in Saudi orbit?



India calls Saudi oil attack 'act of terrorism'

India has condemned the attack on key Saudi oil installations over the weekend as an "act of terrorism".

Raveesh Kumar, India's foreign ministry spokesman, expressed India's resolve to "oppose terrorism in all its forms and manifestations" in a short statement.

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The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2019 18:18

X Posted on the Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Crisis in the Gulf

The attack on Saudi oil facilities raises the risks of war

America and Saudi Arabia may feel compelled to retaliate against Iran

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP says America’s forces are “locked and loaded” to strike at those responsible for the devastating drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s industry on September 14th. Is he about to pull the trigger for another American war in the Middle East?

Responsibility for the strikes on the Khurais oilfield and the Abqaiq oil-processing facility—the biggest such plant in the world—was claimed by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels fighting a Saudi-led coalition in the war in Yemen. But American officials dismissed this notion. Not only was the weaponry involved made in Iran, they say. They also believe the attacks had come not from the south-east of the Arabian peninsula, ie, Yemen, but the north, from Iraq, where Iran runs proxy Shia militias; or indeed from the territory of Iran itself. “Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply,” tweeted Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state. “There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”

Mr Trump was more bellicose but, notably, less specific. He did not name Iran, though he suggested America knew who was responsible for the attacks, and was awaiting confirmation from Saudi Arabia as to the culprit. Within hours, the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen mostly endorsed Mr Pompeo’s account.

Even so, Mr Trump has been here before with his threats of war. He used the same “locked and loaded” phrase to menace North Korea in August 2017, before he met and “fell in love” with its dictator, Kim Jong Un, the next year. And just three months ago, Mr Trump revealed America had also been “cocked and loaded” when he aborted an air-raid against Iran just ten minutes before it was due to strike, because of the likely civilian casualties.

That planned raid was to punish Iran for shooting down an American surveillance drone, one of a series of Iranian provocations in recent months. They have included sabotage attacks, blamed on Iranian proxies, on ships in the Gulf; frequent drone strikes from the Houthis in Yemen (Mr Pompeo tweeted that Iran was behind “nearly 100” attacks on Saudi Arabia); and Iran’s announcement in July that it had breached limits imposed on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium that it accepted in 2015 in its agreement with world powers on curbing its nuclear program, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Mr Trump was elected on a promise to get America out of its drawn-out wars in the Middle East, and has often sought to draw down America’s military presence in the region. Indeed, his reluctance to resort to military action is one of many differences of opinion that led to the departure of his hawkish national security adviser, John Bolton.

Yet the attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais—if Iran was indeed responsible—are its most serious provocations yet. That is one of three reasons why Mr Trump’s latest threats may be more substantial than his earlier ones. The second is their very familiarity. A man as conscious of his own image and importance as the president will not want to become known for repeatedly crying wolf.

Third is what Emile Hokayem, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London, calls a “design flaw” in the policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran that America adopted when Mr Trump pulled it out of the JCPOA last year. The policy, of crippling Iran’s economy through sanctions in the hope of forcing it to abandon its nuclear programme and rein in its proxies elsewhere in the Middle East, “lacks a strategy of escalation”. Iran, for its part, certainly does have such a strategy. As it steadily ratchets up its provocations, America and its Saudi allies risk looking toothless.

At the very least, faint hopes that Mr Trump might meet Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, in the next few weeks seem dashed. The idea for the first such presidential summit since the Iranian revolution in 1979 was pushed by France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, at the G7 summit in Biarritz last month. Mr Trump and Mr Rouhani seemed to entertain the idea, but it was always opposed by Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Some think the attack on Saudi Arabia is an attempt by hardliners to scupper any hope of a rapprochement.

The oil market, badly disrupted by the lost production, may in fact be a deterrent to American military action. Part of the immediate spike in the price (of about 20% initially, before easing back) was the result of the supply shock. It reduced Saudi oil output by nearly 60%, and the world’s by 6%. Saudi officials said they hoped to restore one-third of production by the end of Monday. But getting back to pre-attack levels will take weeks.

In response, Mr Trump on Sunday authorised the release of stocks from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to “keep the markets well-supplied”. He also said the government would expedite approvals of oil projects in Texas and elsewhere. The pressure on the price, however, comes not just from the big cut in production, but from the mounting fear of conflict—ie, of much more severe disruption to come. With worries growing about the problems facing the global economy, war in the Middle East would hardly be a solution.

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The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2019 18:50

X Posted on the Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Daily chart

The drone strikes in Saudi Arabia spook oil markets

But prices are still below their peak for the year

Image

OIL PRICES leapt when markets opened on September 16th, following a drone attack on the Abqaiq oil-processing plant and the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia on September 14th. At one point prices were as much as 20% higher—the biggest intraday jump since Iraq invaded Kuwait almost 30 years ago. At 7pm London time Brent, the leading international benchmark, was 14.7% up, at $69.09 per barrel.

Prices have been remarkably choppy this year: driven up as American sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil have threatened to restrict supply; and down by signs that the world economy is slowing down, dampening demand. Saudi Arabia, by far the biggest producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has tried to stabilise prices, with limited success. In December 2018 OPEC and others, notably Russia, said they would cut production by 1.2m barrels a day. During the year the Saudis have reduced their own output by more than they promised as other OPEC countries have kept pumping. Yet prices have remained volatile, and even now Brent is 8% below its peak for the year (see chart). The rise of shale oil in America—now the world’s biggest oil producer—has made it even harder for OPEC to control global oil prices.

The main questions for oil markets are whether a wider military conflict ensues, thereby threatening even more of the Gulf’s output, and how fast Saudi Arabia can resume production. On September 15th Aramco promised a progress update in “about 48 hours”. Saudi Arabia could replace some of its lost oil from its stocks. But analysts at Rystad Energy, a research firm, warn that could be harder than officials suggest, as stocks are at their lowest in ten years. Other OPEC countries and Russia said on September 16th that they would not immediately pump extra oil to fill the gap.

The attacks call into question plans by Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, to launch what is expected to be the biggest stockmarket listing in history. Last month, during Aramco’s first-ever earnings call with investors, Khalid Al-Dabbagh, the chief financial officer, declared the company’s goal to be “to maintain our position as a world-leading crude-oil producer and lowest-cost producer while providing reliable crude oil supply.” That reliability was already in question. Five days after the call, Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a drone attack on the company’s Shaybah oil field, which produces 1m barrels of oil a day. The attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais has now laid bare the extent of Aramco’s vulnerability.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby chanakyaa » 18 Sep 2019 08:01

There won't be a waar in this region anytime soon. Although, the mil types would continue to curiously explore how and what hit the oil facilities, the chances are that the actual details will never come out in the public domain. Lot of blame game, rhetorics, and accusations; but no evidence. I think this incident meant all business (no waar).

1. After taking eye-ran out of the oil market, P2 has become the largest and most reliable oil block. Ruskies are the most reliable supplier of hydrocarbon to EU and uncle is selling anyone who has cash to buy. Higher price helps both. https://oilprice.com.

2. P2 will pitch new and improved air-defense systems to KSA, which has been pushed into a perpetual waar with its neighbor; thus, guaranteeing continuous purchase of fancy mil hardware from P2. Higher oil prices help Ruskies fund its MIC and uncle sell its shale oil and help MIC. Sometimes, I wonder if Hooties are in bed with both.

3. Higher oil price is effectively a tax on oil importing countries like India who pay up using their reserves. Countries like KSA who export to countries like India, earn higher revenue from oil which ends up buying more mil weapons from other countries, effectively subsidizing MIC of weapon exporters.

4. And, finally, some politics around Aramco IPO listing...Saudi Officials Consider Delaying Aramco IPO After Attacks

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Sep 2019 11:58

All this ultra sophisticated oth targeting capable drone bijnes is fine and dandy, but what's all the gunfire about? Wtp are they shooting at?

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby mmasand » 18 Sep 2019 12:35

Aramco production levels are back to pre-attack levels. Contractors are on site and will initially fix the Bahrain link, following subsequent repairs to the Buqaiq facility. Capacity will be upto its original estimates by end of November.

Meanwhile, CENTCOM is on site and is advising the Saudi Defence forces where their loopholes were, supposedly its being suggested that all that ADS were pointed South West towards Yemen + the theory of the circuitous route taken by the drones. Pompeo touches down in Riyadh this afternoon, is expected to release a statement squarely blaming Iran, but Saudis are being cautiously reserved to name following yesterdays presser. Abdulaziz bin Salman laughed off a journos question re: Trump's tweets, said he is the US President and can tweet whatever he deems fit.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby tandav » 18 Sep 2019 13:21

Consider Indian involvement to protect O&G Infra in KSA in return for KSA investment realignment in hard infra (roads, ports, metros, rail, Airport, make in India) in India from the current soft infra like mosques and preachers

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby mmasand » 19 Sep 2019 00:04

Arab Coalition Spokesperson Colonel Turki al-Maliki's presser.


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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 19 Sep 2019 01:51


this is the evidence Saudi has come up with to blame Iran

More sanctions from US on Iran .

Looks like this round is over.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby banrjeer » 19 Sep 2019 02:14

tandav wrote:Consider Indian involvement to protect O&G Infra in KSA in return for KSA investment realignment in hard infra (roads, ports, metros, rail, Airport, make in India) in India from the current soft infra like mosques and preachers


As for soft infra not all of it is inside India. It's time to use some leverage and purge any anti-India rhetoric from such curricula outside India.

Netanyahu not coming back.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 09931.html

Does this affect strategy and alignments. I keep thinking that disruptions induced by democracy and successful power projection don't always go hand in hand.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby IndraD » 23 Sep 2019 03:33

Saudi asks customers to accept substitute heavy crude.
Full restoration of pre-attack capacity will only be completed by the end of the year. Unlike bragged previously

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ens-nextar

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby schinnas » 29 Sep 2019 17:06

X posted from West Asia News thread.

Something big is happening in Saudi - Yemen. Houthis have captured about 10K Saudi troops and mercenaries and several positions near the border along with huge amount of arms and ammunitions. First reported in Al Jazeera, now all major Western media is covering it giving it credibility.

Also a Saudi general close to the King was dismissed few days back and is now reported to be killed by gunfire.

The yemenis have proposed a ceasefire if Saudi stops it's action and rollback its invasion. Sounds like a huge set back for Saudis just a few days after the coordinated and sophisticated drone attack on their largest oil fields.

If Saudi decides to cut losses and buys peace with Yemen, this will be a HUGE victory for Iran and has potential to upend several calculations of various powers in the mid East.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby mmasand » 29 Sep 2019 17:17

schinnas wrote:X posted from West Asia News thread.

Something big is happening in Saudi - Yemen. Houthis have captured about 10K Saudi troops and mercenaries and several positions near the border along with huge amount of arms and ammunitions. First reported in Al Jazeera, now all major Western media is covering it giving it credibility.

Also a Saudi general close to the King was dismissed few days back and is now reported to be killed by gunfire.

The yemenis have proposed a ceasefire if Saudi stops it's action and rollback its invasion. Sounds like a huge set back for Saudis just a few days after the coordinated and sophisticated drone attack on their largest oil fields.

If Saudi decides to cut losses and buys peace with Yemen, this will be a HUGE victory for Iran and has potential to upend several calculations of various powers in the mid East.


The houthis as usual love making tall claims, at the most they would have captured a handful of troops south of Hudeidah. Besides the so-called general is nothing but a policeman attached to the King's personal detail, who is alleged to have been shot dead by a friend in what was a domestic dispute.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby schinnas » 29 Sep 2019 17:32

Saudis have so far not refuted the claims. Yemenis have claimed that 3 brigades of Saudi soldiers had surrendered along with 100s of APCs, etc.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby abhik » 29 Sep 2019 18:28

Where are the fotos/videos? Hooti Cable Newz is even faster than CNN, Aaj Tak, UBCN etc in sharing footage no?
I suspect they may have surrounded a bunch of Saudis formations, but have not "captured" them yet - might still turn out to be a KLPD eventually.

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Re: The next war in the Persian Gulf

Postby schinnas » 29 Sep 2019 20:29

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/ ... 44121.html

Houthis release video of attack and surrender. Still no word from Saudi. The more interesting question would be will rent a boy Paki army pimp itself to the aid of Saudis for some baksheesh?


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