The next war in the Persian Gulf

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 22 Jun 2019 00:04

^^^It seems US carriers would rather fly over Iran rather than Pakistan. On Monday I flew UA49 from BOM-EWR over most of Iran. It did fly over the SW corner of pakiland, but they try to avoid it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2019 00:25

Safe travel to your family.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 22 Jun 2019 03:31

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 523118001/
This was a direct attack on U.S. assets': Trump's aborted Iran strike draws criticism from Republicans
Ledyard King and Christal Hayes, USA TODAY, June 21, 2019
WASHINGTON – Congressional Republicans were divided Friday following President Donald Trump's decision to abort a planned missile strike against Iran for the downing of a U.S. drone.
"I’ll judge ultimately based on if there is a response, but if the response is no response then I think this is a mistake in pretty big proportions," said Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., a former Air Force pilot who sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He added: "This was a direct attack on U.S. assets."
.....
Gautam

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jun 2019 06:10

A lone katyusha rocket landed inside the residential
Colony of exxon mobil at a place in iraq basra i think
This was before the drone shootdown

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Jun 2019 06:50

ramana wrote:Safe travel to your family.

FAA has banned flight over Eyeran. Might get mistaken for a UAV flying over "international airspace"..

Also scheduled to fly Amsterdam-DEL next week.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 22 Jun 2019 07:30

KLM and Lufthansa are still flying over Iranian airspace. United and British Airways are not. Airspace from Europe to SE Asia is more complicated with Pakiland and Eyeran in the way.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jun 2019 08:32

Pentagon cyber command launched a attack on
Iranian hacker groups on thursday per sources

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 23 Jun 2019 03:14

Reading between the lines, I strongly suspect that should strikes on Iran happen, India will provide logistics support to the USN and USAF. There are platforms and weapon systems that India will watch closely in terms of performance.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 23 Jun 2019 03:55

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/22/worl ... -iran.html
Facing Intensifying Confrontation With Iran, Trump Has Few Appealing Options
By David E. Sanger, June 22, 2019
President Trump’s last-minute decision to pull back from a retaliatory strike on Iran underscored the absence of appealing options available to him as Tehran races toward its next big challenge to the United States: building up and further enriching its stockpile of nuclear fuel.
Two weeks of flare-ups over the attacks on oil tankers and the downing of an American surveillance drone, administration officials said, have overshadowed a larger, more complex and fast-intensifying showdown over containing Iran’s nuclear program.
In meetings in the White House Situation Room in recent days, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo contended that the potential for Iran to move closer to being able to build a nuclear weapon was the primary threat from Tehran, one participant said, a position echoed by Mr. Trump on Twitter on Friday. Left unsaid was that Iran’s moves to bolster its nuclear fuel program stemmed in substantial part from the president’s decision last year to pull out of the 2015 international accord, while insisting that Tehran abide by the strict limits that agreement imposed on its nuclear activities. Mr. Trump has long asserted that the deal would eventually let Iran restart its nuclear program and did too little to curb its support for terrorism.
Now, with the immediate crisis over the drone abating, Mr. Trump has dispatched envoys to the Middle East to consult with allies as he and his national security team appear focused on a two-tier strategy for confronting the nuclear issue. First, they intend to maintain and intensify the sanctions the United States has used to squeeze Iran’s economy, chiefly by choking off its ability to sell oil to the world.
During White House deliberations, Mr. Pompeo and others made the case that Tehran’s lashing out in the Persian Gulf was in direct response to the sanctions. He and Mr. Trump are telling allies and members of Congress that Iran’s leaders will eventually no longer be able to tolerate the devastating economic and domestic political costs, perhaps forcing them to agree to a new nuclear accord tougher than the one they negotiated with President Barack Obama.
At the same time, administration officials have signaled that they continue to weigh more aggressive options, including military strikes and cyberattacks. Those options could come into play if Iran does not buckle under economic pressure or follows through on the warning it issued on Monday: that it would breach the 2015 accord’s limits on how much low-enriched nuclear fuel it can hold, and that it was pointedly leaving open the possibility of further enriching the fuel, edging it closer to the purity necessary to build a bomb.
Mr. Trump’s hawkish national security adviser, John R. Bolton, arrived in Israel on Saturday for a previously scheduled meeting with his Israeli and Russian counterparts to discuss what the White House calls “regional security.” While there he will meet with the head of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission and other officials who, during the Obama administration, repeatedly ordered practice bombings to simulate taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel stopped short of bombing but, a decade ago, joined the United States in conducting a sophisticated cyberattack against Iran’s major enrichment site.
.....
Gautam

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 23 Jun 2019 08:40

Mort Walker wrote:Reading between the lines, I strongly suspect that should strikes on Iran happen, India will provide logistics support to the USN and USAF. There are platforms and weapon systems that India will watch closely in terms of performance.

Saar, do you know the shia population in India? Do you want eyeranians to prop up hezbollah in India to take revenge?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 23 Jun 2019 08:54

Karthik S wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Reading between the lines, I strongly suspect that should strikes on Iran happen, India will provide logistics support to the USN and USAF. There are platforms and weapon systems that India will watch closely in terms of performance.
Saar, do you know the shia population in India? Do you want eyeranians to prop up hezbollah in India to take revenge?

Iran lacks the resources to do that. Worst is the Chaabar port will be a loss. If a shooting war breaks out, Iran for all practical purposes will see significant bombing.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 23 Jun 2019 09:38

What resources you need to recruit dara hua vishesh samudai people? There is nothing India has to gain by participating in anyway in khan war.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jun 2019 15:03

John Bolton
‏
Verified account

@AmbJohnBolton
19h19 hours ago
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Nice to be back in Israel. Looking forward to meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu tomorrow & my counterparts from Israel & Russia, Meir Ben-Shabbat & Nikolay Patrushev, to discuss regional security.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jun 2019 15:03

Sina Azodi
‏

@Azodiac83
20h20 hours ago
More Sina Azodi Retweeted روزنامه ایران
Iran has executed an employee of Ministry of Defense on the charge of spying for the US. His wife, has been sentenced to 15 years in prison

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Jun 2019 16:02

It will be catastrophic to allow the US military facilities in any spat with Iran. Kaput would go Iran's friendship and strategic ties, Chahbahar, route to Afghanistan and we may even find Russia assisting Iran in any spat with the US. Iran has the potential to turn the Gulf into a cauldron and our oil supplies would be gravely affected sending our economy into crisis.Remember that the Iranians are proud Persians with a history going back thousands of years.They are not camel drivers of the desert like the Saudis and other Arab tribes.

Our strategy should be to strongly urge the US to avois a mil. confrontation with the US and Bolton the Blunderbuss must be told where India's sovereign interests lie.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Jun 2019 16:52

This is where India's vaunted Democratic Representatives need to get their thumbs out of their (noses) and do something useful. A pre-emptive resolution in Lok Sabha URGING RESTRAINT, demanding rollback of war drums in the Persian Gelf, Expressing Deep Concern about the Safety and Well-Being of Indians in Gelf, and PROHIBITING the Guvrmand from ANY actions to help either side in case of hostilities and PROHIBITING use of Indian land/facilities for any such activities. The baboon can say, What 2 do? V R on ur side onlee, but Parliament has PROHIBITED us, sorree onlee.

This was done quite nicely, I thought, for the New Clear Lie-Ability. But let's see... that was UPA wasn't it? But it was the then-Opposition that led the charge. Wonder if same can be pulled off now.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Jun 2019 16:53

TSPN says they are watching IN deployments in the region. The TSP (Navy, Air Force and army) has increased deployment into the GCC in line with their commitments. You’ll see temperature on LoC reduce given both parties focus on the region.

IN has offered to deploy naval guards on all Indian oil and gas ships transiting region.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 23 Jun 2019 17:07

shyamd wrote:TSPN says they are watching IN deployments in the region. The TSP (Navy, Air Force and army) has increased deployment into the GCC in line with their commitments. You’ll see temperature on LoC reduce given both parties focus on the region.

IN has offered to deploy naval guards on all Indian oil and gas ships transiting region.

You mean IA and PA deployed in JnK and PoK respectively will be in front of TV focusing on CNN? Just as cheen used cuban missile crisis during 1962, it's best time to take any action when whole world's attention is somewhere else.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 23 Jun 2019 20:41

China coordinated with the USSR the attack on India during the Cuban missile crisis. The dates of events are the same.

Right now protecting India’s oil supply is the priority for the IN. Any disruption to that and all bets are off as to what happens next.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 23 Jun 2019 21:52

Mort Walker wrote:Reading between the lines, I strongly suspect that should strikes on Iran happen, India will provide logistics support to the USN and USAF. There are platforms and weapon systems that India will watch closely in terms of performance.

You are kidding , right ?. If you look at the map you will see that India does not share any land border, closest to Iran massa has already big presence it needs. On top of it if it needs to screw them from other side they will go to their time and tested Butler who share the land border and always eager to commit harakiri (knowing porkis they are smart enough not to get their hands dirty with this dirty shQt). They know their neighbors well.

Regarding India closely watching weapons systems they saw "Teen-Cans" very closely during ballot skirmish so goes south any wishes of selling junk aircrafts to IAF, only interest we need with massa is in naval aviation and unmanned systems rest is Maya only.

Going back to support massa, we have time and time again went against Israel so as not to let our relations in jeopardy with Iran because that is in our national interest.

If I go back to starting of this thread, General Hanain explains what this will mean for Indian interest from energy security perspective. We need deeper analysis on what this war means for indian interests and how each possible scenarios from this will effect India. From what I believe in short if this continues likes this : blow hot and blow cold is in our interest in near term (next 3 years) if it continues like this.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Jun 2019 01:46

krishna_krishna wrote: You are kidding , right ?. If you look at the map you will see that India does not share any land border, closest to Iran massa has already big presence it needs. On top of it if it needs to screw them from other side they will go to their time and tested Butler who share the land border and always eager to commit harakiri (knowing porkis they are smart enough not to get their hands dirty with this dirty shQt). They know their neighbors well.

Regarding India closely watching weapons systems they saw "Teen-Cans" very closely during ballot skirmish so goes south any wishes of selling junk aircrafts to IAF, only interest we need with massa is in naval aviation and unmanned systems rest is Maya only.

Going back to support massa, we have time and time again went against Israel so as not to let our relations in jeopardy with Iran because that is in our national interest.

If I go back to starting of this thread, General Hanain explains what this will mean for Indian interest from energy security perspective. We need deeper analysis on what this war means for indian interests and how each possible scenarios from this will effect India. From what I believe in short if this continues likes this : blow hot and blow cold is in our interest in near term (next 3 years) if it continues like this.

No, I'm not kidding. That same map will show that Indian oil comes through the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. If there is a potential threat to it, then expect IN and IAF to be involved.

India will be looking at the standoff weapons and surveillance systems. It has no interest in fighter aircraft. No more European, American, or Russian junk. LCA Tejas and MCA are the only way forward.

A shooting war looks very unlikely now. If it were to happen, it would most likely be a very extensive bombing campaign.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 24 Jun 2019 03:29

Karthik S wrote:You mean IA and PA deployed in JnK and PoK respectively will be in front of TV focusing on CNN? Just as cheen used cuban missile crisis during 1962, it's best time to take any action when whole world's attention is somewhere else.

That's your misinformed interpretation. There are 6 million indians in the region contributing significantly to india's economy and a large element of Indian oil & gas requirements. 35% of world's O&G comes from the region - India lives in an interdependent world whether you like it or not.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 24 Jun 2019 11:29

shyamd wrote:
Karthik S wrote:You mean IA and PA deployed in JnK and PoK respectively will be in front of TV focusing on CNN? Just as cheen used cuban missile crisis during 1962, it's best time to take any action when whole world's attention is somewhere else.
That's your misinformed interpretation. There are 6 million indians in the region contributing significantly to india's economy and a large element of Indian oil & gas requirements. 35% of world's O&G comes from the region - India lives in an interdependent world whether you like it or not.

So what according to you the role of IA deployed in Kashmir will be should the war break out between eyeran and US?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jun 2019 13:46

houthis have struck abha airport again. 1 killed, 8 wounded.

DT is said to be pressing his agencies for additional covert war options incl cyberspace vs Iran to deter the same from IRGC.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 24 Jun 2019 15:01

If hostilities break out in Gulf which I think they would, Bharat needs to stay away from it.
Proud Persians and Khadimen-harmein-Shareifein can fight each other to death, we have no dog in this fight.
We anyways will be screwed with oil bill shooting upwards and pressure by KSA led alliance to sever all relations with Shia Iran.
All these platitudes about Historical relations etc. go out of the window first and everyone looks after their interest.

If USA begins the bombing campaign in Iran, It probably will last for a long log time given the interest of Israel and Sunni Arab countries to make an example out of Shia Iran. Add no fly zone and sanctions, we are looking at future Afghanistan.
There maybe an attempt to break Iran into entities like 'Free Iran state' giving rise to push for Kurdistan.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Jun 2019 16:59

According to AW&ST the nearest civilian flight to the downing of the US Global Hawk last week by Iranian SAM was 45 nm. Lufthansa is flying over Iran itself and BA and KLM are flying over Iraq for its flights to and from India.

UA will start a SFO-DEL non stop in December. AA is talking about an LAX-BOM in 2020.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 24 Jun 2019 19:02

Any confirmation especially from American sources on the Missile used by Iranians, there seems to be silence in this regard.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jun 2019 19:58

there are also air space ban over Qatar and vice versa . qatar airways flies over iran and iraq . the GCC group except oman does not fly over qatar or allow qatar to use their air space.

qatar being the richest of the arabs per capita seens to have handled the shock of saudi closing the border to all trade.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jun 2019 20:26

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
3h3 hours ago
More
....a dangerous journey. We don’t even need to be there in that the U.S. has just become (by far) the largest producer of Energy anywhere in the world! The U.S. request for Iran is very simple - No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror!

China gets 91% of its Oil from the Straight, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise. So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been....

williams · Post by **williams** » 24 Jun 2019 20:40

Trump is a Baniya at heart. I am sure he will be well briefed about the economic consequences of starting a shooting war in the gulf. My guess will be there will be a lot of to and fro threatening and then will bring Iran to sit and negotiate. He will simply use the same template that is used against NK. But the biggest long term problem is for India. Looks like we are putting a lot of our eggs in US basket without realizing the unreliability of this partner. We need a huge defense manufacturing indigenization drive to continue to have an independent foreign policy. The world is becoming more dangerous by the day and we will not have a say to control its destiny unless we have the industrial capacity to produce our own weapons. Until then we cannot use diplomacy to further our own interests in the region.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Jul 2019 20:19

Update on this. Trump trying to get Putin to ask Iran to negotiate. Putin has placed some conditions.
Trump considering some military steps - possible naval blockade of some sorts, to force Iran to come to table.

IN/IAF may have a big job coming up if things get out of control. Deployment will expand clearly

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2019 22:34

12 raptors were sent to al udeid in qatar last week to fly around and wave the flag

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2019 22:39

https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1 ... 7519571968

UK marines detained one iranian tanker carrying oil to syria in gibralter. never mind there are no UN sanctions on iran and EU sanctions restrains export from EU to syria, not from anyone like iran to syria.

my prediction is the iranians will look to id and detain some british ship soon.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 05 Jul 2019 09:07

Singha wrote:https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1 ... 7519571968

UK marines detained one iranian tanker carrying oil to syria in gibralter. never mind there are no UN sanctions on iran and EU sanctions restrains export from EU to syria, not from anyone like iran to syria.

my prediction is the iranians will look to id and detain some british ship soon.

The ship was bound for a Syrian refinery. Currently EU sanctions are in place against the Assad regime in Syria.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jul 2019 14:07

Europe at unease with UK seizing Iran oil tanker : https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 092193.cms
EU has tried to maintain equivocal stand on US Iran tension but current seizure of Iran oil tanker by UK forces in middle of Europe has put them at unease

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jul 2019 14:07

Iran threatens to capture UK oil tanker https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 092193.cms

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jul 2019 14:10

Hormuz strait is hardly 21 miles wide, a country like Iran is capable of blocking oil transportation through it, putting Saudi , UAE & Qatar in deep trouble . This part sees far more oil transit than any other straits of the world

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Jul 2019 15:45

The Brits have got their knickers in a twist after the seizure of a Stena UK flagged tanker transitibg the straits, taken to Bandar Abbas.Iran says it collided with a fiahing vessel and ignored its distress call.Tough Qs will now be asked of the UK govt. why after seizing an Iranian tanker at Gibraltar , supposedly shipping oil to Syria, and well knowing that a shortage of naval warships to send to the Gulf, allowed unprotected merchant vessels to transit without escort in the event of Iranian retaliation which it openly telegraphed!

Around 30 UK merchantmen transit the Guld daily and the asinine bravado of a depleted RN, puffed with pride of the Nelsonian era, have hilariously fallen victim to the Iranian IRGC forces, who are not even a regular navy! Nelson must be turning over in his coffin!

The attempts to isolate and punish Iran mainly by the US and UK may spectacularly backfire if even a signle man-o- war is attacked successfully by Iranian regular or irregular maritime forces.Punishing Iran is being done to save the backside of the Saudi despots who cannot win the war in Yemen, where ally the UAE has pulled out. The west must remember that the Iranians are not simple camel-driver Arabs but proud Persians, an entirely different species.India must very carefully operate its warships escorting our tankers not to get caught in a west- Iran spat.In any case both tankers seized have Indian crew aboard and ghe MEA must forcefully demand their release both from the UK and Iran.
We too can play the seizing game if pushed to the limit.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 20 Jul 2019 17:55

18 of the 23 crew members on this tanker are Indian nationals including the Captain. Indian MEA says that it is in touch with Iran on their release. It's going to get interesting. Like it or not India is caught in the middle yet again in the US-Iran fracas.

Also, the remaining 5 crew members are mixed nationalities i.e. Russian, Latvian, Filipino etc. nations that are generally friendly towards Iran. Not a single British national is a crew member.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Jul 2019 18:53

Typical! Perfidious Albion, getting the natives to do their dirty work as in both WWs.