Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

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Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 10:30

tracking the movements both overt and covert of BIF forces in these three states and also news and views

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Re: Kerala and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Venky36 » 24 May 2019 11:03

My 2 np thought... In TN the dmk alliance with cong has channelled the resentment against admk and has gained. But now new equations will come to play. In Ker as in WB its the left voter who can cause the swing, now that their party is weakening

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Re: Kerala and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby V_Raman » 24 May 2019 11:11

BJP needs leaders who has command over the Tamil language, poetry, satire. Current leadership across the alliance does not cut it.

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Re: Kerala and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Lilo » 24 May 2019 11:17

Why is Andhra missing here aside from Kerala & TN?
Please add Andhra to the list.
Telangana is already on the way where BJP is going to be the principle opposition party and congies on the path to decimation.

EJ jagan meanwhile needs to opposed tooth and nail from implementing his EJ agenda - while the TDP/JSP are split up and absorbed into BJP .

There will be a complete ganging up of EJs-Jihadis-Commies-Casteists(as it happened in TN) who will try to violently prevent a Hindutva political challenge from coming up.

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Re: Kerala and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 11:19

BJP was able to grow inorganically in Assam by absorbing most of the dying AGP and then some strategic defectors from the INC like HBS.
ofcourse the RSS has been there for a long time, but they had not been able to make a mark in politics until the AGP started dying.

I guess they can start by nibbling at the left in Kerala.

TN will need a different strategy became DMK is not congress and is very alert and strong.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 11:41

Image

prashant kishore helped YSRCP with the election campaign

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Yagnasri » 24 May 2019 13:00

Posted from Election thread

Yagnasri wrote:CBN craeted a huge hate campaign on BJP and NM for almost two years. Entire Telugu media actively participated in that. Most of the Telugu media people are communists directly or indirectly. So that hate went into large sections of the society in AP at least. TG escaped that to some extant.

In TN entire DK gangs along with DK media which is practically entire TN MSM along with SM gangs were attacking NM and BJP for almost five years and hate northees (BJP said to be north Indian party) and hate brahmins (BJP) and anti Hindu ideas for almost five decades. To expect BJP to do well there in immediate future. One good thing is there is lot of Hindu political awakening happening in TN (much better situation than in AP). We have to work on that for sometime and see how it goes.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Lilo » 24 May 2019 13:03

X-Post


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LpUcfTOetI
Congress Spokesperson Shama Mohammed claims Kerala people are so literate that even the maids in Kerala are well read which is why they rejected RSS/BJP.

She says Kerala people know what the real issues are and lists out joblessness corruption polarization. She clearly fails acknowledging Sabarimala as a core issue for Kerala Congress victory. More ever she claims that Kerala Hindus rejected attempts for religious polarization and voted for Congress for "development".

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby nandakumar » 24 May 2019 13:07

TN became what it is today because of a strategic error committed by Gandhi during the freedom struggle. The British introduced a limited form self Government in all the territories directly administered by the British based on the recommendations of the Minto-Morley reform proposals. It was not much of a self-government as many key areas of administration rested with the Governor General of the Presidency. But it was something. But Gandhi wanted Poorna Swaraj and opposed the reforms. The British went ahead and held elections and the Congress boycotted the election. Consequently the Justice Party contested the election on a platform of anti brahminism and hyper local identity agenda. It won the elections and ruled the Madras Presidency for nearly 20 years. The Justice Party was a motley group of politicians comprising Mudaiars, Nairs and Reddys. They were often at loggerheads amongst themselves but managed to remain in power till elections were held in 1937 which Congress won. But again as a result of the decision of Gandhi to pull out of local governance following the Quit India movement in 1941 power returned to the Justice Party. They had a free run for another five years. Anti Brahminism morphed into backward class identity cum strong sub national identity politics by this time. But the power struggle between Rajaji on the one side and likes Kamaraj and other non brahmin leaders on the other within the Congress only cemented this sub regional identity. It became a Tamil identity after States were reorganised on linguistic basis and the erstwhile Madras Presidency became virtually Tamil Presidency. Sometime in the mid 20s Periyar broke away from Congress and started his Dravida Kazhagam. It's ideology was similar to the Justice Party but with a crucial difference. It did not believe in electoral politics and preferred to focus on Hindu social reforms with special reference to backward class emancipation. Dravida Kazhagam thus sort of co existed with Justice Party as a sort of a socio cultural reform wing of the former. But ego clashes within the Justice Party leaders sowed the seeds of is extinction which was hastened by the victory of Congress party in the 1937 election. Dravida Kazhagam split into two as DK and DMK as Annadurai was keen on joining the electoral politics that EVR opposed. The former was biding his time. An opportunity presented itself when EVR chose to marry a 17 year old associate of his which Annadurai called it a socially retrograde move. DMK was thus formed. But the anti brahminism cum anti Hindu religion (euhemistically labelled as eradication of superstition) along the way into a form of regional and cultural assertion of separateness remained its principal plank. The imposition of Hindi as the official language gave a boost to DMK's campaign against Congress. It was just inevitable that political agenda of DMK transformed into Tamil Exceptionalism. The election result was another manifestation.

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Re: Kerala and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Yagnasri » 24 May 2019 13:08

Lilo wrote:EJ jagan meanwhile needs to opposed tooth and nail from implementing his EJ agenda - while the TDP/JSP are split up and absorbed into BJP .

There will be a complete ganging up of EJs-Jihadis-Commies-Casteists(as it happened in TN) who will try to violently prevent a Hindutva political challenge from coming up.


CBN was also helping EJs so almost nothing changed as far as EJ activities are concerned.

As per all rumors Jagan is like Raja Reddy (his grandfather who was accused in many criminal activities and was murdered) and there is lot of fear about Jagan and who he will act once he takes power. He is not his father in almost any aspect.

There is already major anti EJ activities going on in Telugu states - Please see your tube of Shiva Shakthi and their movie Nene Devudini. It is quite active and common educated Hindus are now aware of the activities of EJs. With Jagan the response of Hindus hopefully only will get better. There are many Hindu religious leaders who are also actively opposing EJs and attacks on Dharma in AP and TG.

So while Jagan pose a serious threat all is not lost in AP.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Yagnasri » 24 May 2019 13:12

Cross post from election thread.

rhytha wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:CBN craeted a huge hate campaign on BJP and NM for almost two years. Entire Telugu media actively participated in that. Most of the Telugu media people are communists directly or indirectly. So that hate went into large sections of the society in AP at least. TG escaped that to some extant.

In TN entire DK gangs along with DK media which is practically entire TN MSM along with SM gangs were attacking NM and BJP for almost five years and hate northees (BJP said to be north Indian party) and hate brahmins (BJP) and anti Hindu ideas for almost five decades. To expect BJP to do well there in immediate future. One good thing is there is lot of Hindu political awakening happening in TN (much better situation than in AP). We have to work on that for sometime and see how it goes.


Issues which turned anti-modi in TN. AIADMK and DMK conveniently shifted all the blames on Center

# Tuticorin Shootout (Nothing to do with Modi, but he was blamed)
# Hydrocarbon (Nothing to do with Modi, but he was blamed)
# 8-way Chennai-Salem highway (Nothing to do with Modi, but he was blamed)
# Jallikattu Protest (Nothing to do with Modi, but he was blamed)
# Farmer protests in Delhi (Nothing to do with Modi, but he was blamed)
# NEET protests (Nothing to do with Modi, but he was blamed)

We can logically argue those are nothing to do with Modi, but perception among lot of people was Center/Modi was responsible, because DMK/AIADMK blamed center for the impasse. Added to that the un-engerytic OPS-EPS combine who looked very mediocre and was giving excuses and supplicating to the Centers wish than fighting for state's rights. DK gangs media empire blew the above issues out of proportion with constant 24/7 news.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 13:25

interesting posts nandakumar and yagnasri.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 13:31

Image

map of the bahmani sultanate which was founded as a rebellion against mohd bin tughlaq which later morphed into the 5 deccan sultanates - ahmednagar, golconda, bidar, berar, bijapur which eventually destroyed the vijayanagara empire after many attempts and fails. in turn these were mainly destroyed by aurangzeb. part of it could be shia-sunni fight and part a hunt for more resources. when the mughals were in decline after aurangzeb died, in 1721 the regional governor again broke away to form the asaf jahi dynasty (nizam of hyderabad). for a while the marathas took tribute from them. somehow they managed to hang on till 1947



wiki

Rulers of the dynasty believed that they descended from Bahman, the mythological figure of Greater Iranian legend and lore. The Bahamani Sultans were patrons of the Persian language, culture and literature, and some members of the dynasty became well-versed in that language and composed its literature in that language.[4]


Bahamani Tombs in Bidar district
The first sultan, Alauddin Bahman Shah is noted to have captured 1,000 singing and dancing girls from Hindu temples after he battled the northern Carnatic chieftains. The later Bahmanis also enslaved civilian women and children in wars; many of them were converted to Islam in captivity.[7][8] The craftspersons of Bidar were so famed for their inlay work on copper and silver that it came to be known as Bidri.

Although the sultanate practice Shi'a Islam, the majority of the population adhered to Hinduism. The common people, who were mostly Hindus, had to adjust their religious practices to become more acceptable to their Muslim political masters

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby dada » 24 May 2019 13:40

# nandakumar ,

That was an amazing post. I am not from the 3 states you mentioned. These 3 states have suddenly come into the spot light due to their voting patterns. What you have provided is the historical background of TN politics.

Can any of the readers provide some links to some authentic sources of political history of these 3 states ? (in english , because I dont know these 3 languages). Thanks in advance.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 13:49

I put the post above to build the base for a recurring pattern seen in many domains.

Let us take a cash rich but slowly declining corporation like GM or IBM. unless they reinvigorate themselves and deliver what is needed as times change, they will wither and die. capable and ambitious people will fork away and form their own ventures or join more virile compititors , taking away their own loyalists. generally people who can bear some risk and want to work will move out of such places. some will remain due to inertia, fear, or because they are compensated way beyond the fair market value. the bands that leave will be led by capable VP/GM types. a company is seldom able to keep up the quality of its top leadership over decades. a handful of cos in the world are 100 years old.

we see two cycles of that in my sultanate example above.
turkic tughlaq sultanate became weak => bahman shah forked off => bahmani weak => deccan sultanates split it up
mughal sultanate became weak => nizam of hyd forked off.
note it was always a capable regional satrap who could stand on own in terms of army and resources.

coming to the life cycle of the congress dynasty, JLN was a intellectual giant and overachiever, the founders zeal. unparalleled popularity and personal brand. nobody in the public cared what he did with edwina etc. his daughter IG if nowhere near his intellect, was atleast a courageous street fighter who figured out the pulse of the electorate and that 'garibi hatao' was a winning ticket. her natural successor by nature and training was SG, a bit of a psychopath but those days of controlled media not an issue to brush under carpet. unfortunately the crown prince met a untimely end. next came RG, a soft somewhat naive prince with no much exposure to the 'real india'. he may have meant some good initially within the limitations of his upbringing but the foxy courtiers soon took care of surrounding him with a halo and manufactured reality....he tolerated a lot of vile people linked to business interests, paid the price of being kicked out when his most capable commander VP Singh revolted and then was victim to a shadowy assassination.
next came RG who we all know.
while all this was happening, the caliber of the supreme commander was witnessing a steady fall from JLN to RG.
so similar cycle kicked in of powerful regional satraps breaking off to found their own dynasty
1) PA Sangma
2) Sharad Pawar
3) YSR reddy (technically ysrc was founded after his demise)
the one remaining due to some personal nostalgia, loyalty, inertia or pay pkg is Capt Singh of Punjab. he is way more capable than the crown prince but still lingers on in the musty halls of a dying bahadur shah zafar kind of empire.

Janata Dal from its united VP singh days , after his fall, splintered into BJD, RJD, JDS(ja), JDU(bihar) and others like AGP and TDP went back to free existence.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Karan M » 24 May 2019 14:08

i doubt Nehru was any intellectual giant or overachiever (Kashmir, 1962m, UN seat, Indias flawed economic policies, navel gazing in 48 and during Polo).

More like his master Gandhi's voice, favored pet/chamcha and got the rewards for loyalty vs a more independent minded Patel.

Like a certain cook for Indira became President.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 14:09

his books do display a good capability to read, explain and think imo - the generals patterns of a organized mind.
totally agree he was blue eyed boy of MKG over others like rajaji, SP and SCB.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Karan M » 24 May 2019 14:13

Question is how many of those books were actually written by him. Constant rumors of others doing the heavy lifting.

And also, if his ability to read and think was the real deal, how did he constantly make such lousy decisions on every topic he should have been aware of:

Natsec disaster, Economic fumble harmer and planted asinine socialism and crony capitalism, nepotism by favoring Indira, and then the deracinated loathing of Hindus to begin with.

IMHO - Gandhi was more of a brain, shrewd politician. This guy was the salaam saab door opener who became powerful. Much like RK Dhawan becoming a power center in Delhi.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Venky36 » 24 May 2019 14:13

True that TN politics developed a seperate identity based on language, culture n BC emancipation. That has played out and many ppl want to be free from the twin dravida parties, but don't trust bjp enough as it doesn't have local n respected leadership. That benefit of doubt has gone to Cong so far...

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Karan M » 24 May 2019 14:17

About book reading and translating into achievement. I think the two guys there were Patel and Rajaji.

Patel could chew through heavy tomes like a barrister which JLN also was, but also took decisions like a grade A++ corporate kammandu. That is just self training, ascetic discipline to not be influenced by chamchagiri, or genetics. The decisiveness he had.

Rajaji was talking of economic policies to address long term prosperity whereas entire institutes were full of pencil pushing stats gurus missing the woods for the trees.

IMHO - these guys were giants.

Banditji had a certain political cunning, no doubt. But I suspect his intellectual claims have to do with myth making like his love for children etc.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dumal » 24 May 2019 15:01

Karan M wrote:I had mentioned this before but ppl got upset. Using my own non scientific sampling using social media, friends etc, had said TN, AP, KL had fallen furthest from mainstream in terms of being badly affected by anti Modi, anti-BJP, divisive propaganda regarding "cowbelt", "naarthies", "casteist BJP etc". And this would reflect in voting.


All of these may be present as part of the murky undercurrents at any point of time and not unique to TN, for politicians like MuKa/CBN to exploit and exaggerate when needed. I don’t see anything irredeemable or anywhere close to that here. Had DMK been part of the NDA, we can be sure none of these divisive politics would have gained as much currency.

Re. DMK’s sweep of TN, I would attribute that to the vacuum created by JJ’s death not convincingly filled by anyone even though Sasikala/TTVD, EPS/OPS et al tried their hardest. And MuKa’s death and the mild sympathy wave from it and Stalin’s clean ascension to the legacy made a lot of fence-sitters choose DMK over and above the MuKa/DMK family faithful’s. Also the bottom-fishing from assorted far-left nutcases like Seeman and Kamal Hassan et al, amply supported by the BIF forces tilted the balance further against BJP.

The way out is to make Stalin irrelevant just like CBN is now.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dumal » 24 May 2019 15:09

Karan M wrote:I had mentioned this before but ppl got upset. Using my own non scientific sampling using social media, friends etc, had said TN, AP, KL had fallen furthest from mainstream in terms of being badly affected by anti Modi, anti-BJP, divisive propaganda regarding "cowbelt", "naarthies", "casteist BJP etc". And this would reflect in voting.


All of these may be present as part of the murky undercurrents at any point of time and not unique to TN, for politicians like MuKa/CBN to exploit and exaggerate when needed. I don’t see anything irredeemable or anywhere close to that here. Had DMK been part of the NDA, we can be sure none of these divisive politics would have gained as much currency.

Re. DMK’s sweep of TN, I would attribute that to the vacuum created by JJ’s death not convincingly filled by anyone even though Sasikala/TTVD, EPS/OPS et al tried their hardest. And MuKa’s death and the mild sympathy wave from it and Stalin’s clean ascension to the legacy made a lot of fence-sitters choose DMK over and above the MuKa/DMK family faithful’s. Also the bottom-fishing from assorted far-left nutcases like Seeman and Kamal Hassan et al, amply supported by the BIF forces tilted the balance further against BJP.

The way out is to make Stalin irrelevant just like CBN is now.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 24 May 2019 15:13

Anujan wrote:Tamil Nadu has a big history of people involved in tamil literature getting into politics. Oratory, word play, debate in Tamil still plays a big part in Tamil Nadu politics. To win Tamil nadu, you must be seen as "Tamil". To be seen as "tamil" you should be able to joust verbally in Tamil.

BJP is seen as a "northern" party, DMK and ADMK seen as "Tamil" parties.

Congress is seen as a "northern" party too: A lot of people made fun of Pappu speaking with a tamil translator.

BJP will win TN only if there is a strong tamil speaking branch set up in Tamil Nadu. Congress was able to do that, with Kamraj and later with Moopanar.


I said before that Modi should learn Tamil for 2024. Also Modi is a great orator. His message is being lost in translation. In fact, any politician from the north has to learn as many southern Indian languages as possible, but Tamil is a must. It will immediately endear him to the people.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby nandakumar » 24 May 2019 15:39

dada wrote:# nandakumar ,

That was an amazing post. I am not from the 3 states you mentioned. These 3 states have suddenly come into the spot light due to their voting patterns. What you have provided is the historical background of TN politics.

Can any of the readers provide some links to some authentic sources of political history of these 3 states ? (in english , because I dont know these 3 languages). Thanks in advance.

Thank you sir. What I have posted is knowledge gleaned from here and there. Also I have lived all my life in TN barring an unbroken spell of nine years. So I was witness to some of the events of recent history. Outside of that I have no pretensions to any scholarship on TN politics. I have only tried to give a perspective which could easily be challenged. For instance, how much of EVR's (EV Ramaswamy Naicker) insistence that DK remain a social reform movement and not transform into a political party dictated by EVR's envy of growing popularity of Annadurai within the ranks of DK followers and general public? For that matter, how far did EVR's marriage with a lady decades younger than him prompted Annadurai to quit DK rather than a growing realisation that there was no future for him in DK especially if mantle of leadership was going to pass on to a young lady after EVR's time with all the property that had been accumulated under DK banner, a factor in Annadurai floating a political party? No hard answers. So there it is.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby jaysimha » 24 May 2019 15:49

hanumadu wrote:
I said before that Modi should learn Tamil for 2024.


How much 1 man can do..
easier / better to have some one from TN.

In the beginning i was thinking Kamal hasan / rajani kanth may join BJP and do something.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kit » 24 May 2019 16:01

hanumadu wrote:
Anujan wrote:Tamil Nadu has a big history of people involved in tamil literature getting into politics. Oratory, word play, debate in Tamil still plays a big part in Tamil Nadu politics. To win Tamil nadu, you must be seen as "Tamil". To be seen as "tamil" you should be able to joust verbally in Tamil.

BJP is seen as a "northern" party, DMK and ADMK seen as "Tamil" parties.

Congress is seen as a "northern" party too: A lot of people made fun of Pappu speaking with a tamil translator.

BJP will win TN only if there is a strong tamil speaking branch set up in Tamil Nadu. Congress was able to do that, with Kamraj and later with Moopanar.


I said before that Modi should learn Tamil for 2024. Also Modi is a great orator. His message is being lost in translation. In fact, any politician from the north has to learn as many southern Indian languages as possible, but Tamil is a must. It will immediately endear him to the people.


Couldnt agree more., The tamil language speaks directly to the hearts of Tamilians., i know that from my own experience. No doubts about this. Let this happen and see BJP resurgence in TN

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Bart S » 24 May 2019 16:10

Dumal wrote:
Karan M wrote:I had mentioned this before but ppl got upset. Using my own non scientific sampling using social media, friends etc, had said TN, AP, KL had fallen furthest from mainstream in terms of being badly affected by anti Modi, anti-BJP, divisive propaganda regarding "cowbelt", "naarthies", "casteist BJP etc". And this would reflect in voting.


All of these may be present as part of the murky undercurrents at any point of time and not unique to TN, for politicians like MuKa/CBN to exploit and exaggerate when needed. I don’t see anything irredeemable or anywhere close to that here. Had DMK been part of the NDA, we can be sure none of these divisive politics would have gained as much currency.

Re. DMK’s sweep of TN, I would attribute that to the vacuum created by JJ’s death not convincingly filled by anyone even though Sasikala/TTVD, EPS/OPS et al tried their hardest. And MuKa’s death and the mild sympathy wave from it and Stalin’s clean ascension to the legacy made a lot of fence-sitters choose DMK over and above the MuKa/DMK family faithful’s. Also the bottom-fishing from assorted far-left nutcases like Seeman and Kamal Hassan et al, amply supported by the BIF forces tilted the balance further against BJP.

The way out is to make Stalin irrelevant just like CBN is now.


There is too much over-analysis and conspiracy theorizing going on about TN results at least. Fact of the matter is neither Congress nor BJP matter at all in local politics, and will not either till they have capable local leaders. Till then it is between the two local parties (with some further caste related sub-groups) and traditionally one or the other sweep each election (usually alternate elections, with occasional exceptions). BJP just happened to pick the losing side, plus it was conveniently blamed even by their own allied parties supporters for most of the miss-steps that really their party leadership should take the blame for.

Also, the assumption that whatever worked for the BJP in the north should have automatically worked in the south and whining about "why can't the southern states just conform/toe the line" is ridiculous. The political rhetoric that works in UP and Bihar will get very little traction in TN/AP/KL and if the BJP wants to get votes in those states, they have to roll up their sleeves, do hard work at the grassroots, build local leadership, allow local leadership from those states a fair share and stakes in the national level party leadership group, and then based on performance there is a chance of getting a good result, e.g KA.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ArjunPandit » 24 May 2019 16:10

kit, i had the very similar thoughts/discussion with a tambrahm yesterday, he was upset at nda hitting zero,
I said it essential for modi to take lead for 2 reaons
1. to gain seats for 2024
2. to preempt the divisive tendencies, that urban naxals are promoting. Imagine a 15th august speech with 5 mins speech in tamil or malyalam. That will be a good start. Kannadigas still talk that HD devegowda talked in hindi from red fort
Language is the multidimensional definite integral (from -infinity to today day) of the culture, environment and food.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby nachiket » 24 May 2019 16:11

X-posting from elections thread

Karan M wrote:I had mentioned this before but ppl got upset. Using my own non scientific sampling using social media, friends etc, had said TN, AP, KL had fallen furthest from mainstream in terms of being badly affected by anti Modi, anti-BJP, divisive propaganda regarding "cowbelt", "naarthies", "casteist BJP etc". And this would reflect in voting.

I don't know if we can put AP, TN and KL in the same boat. All three cases were different IMO. In AP, I had said before the elections started that the people had a choice between bad and worse (and you can take your pick who is who). If the BJP-TDP alliance was intact and they had still chosen YCP then it would be a different story. But CBN had to go and put on a soosai vest, blowing up the BJP along with him.

In KL, the overarching consideration seemed to be to demolish the CPI(M) this time. And they achieved that for sure. They seemed to have voted tactically for the Congress to beat the commies. IMHO, between the congies and commies, the commies are the bigger evil.

TN is the only place where they had a real alternative, but they declared themselves soup-e-rear to the naarthie cowbelt BJP and dumped the ADMK, at least as per what I see on SM.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Bart S » 24 May 2019 16:16

nachiket wrote:
TN is the only place where they had a real alternative, but they declared themselves soup-e-rear to the naarthie cowbelt BJP and dumped the ADMK, at least as per what I see on SM.


From what I have seen it was more of an anti-ADMK vote than anything else. BJP was irrelevant except in social media hot air and meme sharing, but the perceived interference by BJP in ADMK and rumors of propping up Rajni etc also fed into that. The only way the BJP can get traction is by working at the grassroots and earning it, talking down to TN or portraying the lack of votes to BJP as 'separatist sentiment' will only backfire.

ADMK has been in power in the state for 2 terms now and people are kind of fatigued with it. That has always been the trend in TN, with alternate elections typically going to each party and strong anti-incumbency in place.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 24 May 2019 16:21

Bart S wrote:From what I have seen it was more of an anti-ADMK vote than anything else. BJP was irrelevant except in social media hot air and meme sharing, but the perceived interference by BJP in ADMK and rumors of propping up Rajni etc also fed into that. The only way the BJP can get traction is by working at the grassroots and earning it, talking down to TN or portraying the lack of votes to BJP as 'separatist sentiment' will only backfire.

ADMK has been in power in the state for 2 terms now and people are kind of fatigued with it. That has always been the trend in TN, with alternate elections typically going to each party and strong anti-incumbency in place.

True, but they were completely immune to the Modi Tsunami in most other parts of India, to the extent that even Pon Radhakrishnan lost for no discernible reason.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 24 May 2019 16:21

Dumal wrote:
Karan M wrote:I had mentioned this before but ppl got upset. Using my own non scientific sampling using social media, friends etc, had said TN, AP, KL had fallen furthest from mainstream in terms of being badly affected by anti Modi, anti-BJP, divisive propaganda regarding "cowbelt", "naarthies", "casteist BJP etc". And this would reflect in voting.


All of these may be present as part of the murky undercurrents at any point of time and not unique to TN, for politicians like MuKa/CBN to exploit and exaggerate when needed. I don’t see anything irredeemable or anywhere close to that here. Had DMK been part of the NDA, we can be sure none of these divisive politics would have gained as much currency.

Re. DMK’s sweep of TN, I would attribute that to the vacuum created by JJ’s death not convincingly filled by anyone even though Sasikala/TTVD, EPS/OPS et al tried their hardest. And MuKa’s death and the mild sympathy wave from it and Stalin’s clean ascension to the legacy made a lot of fence-sitters choose DMK over and above the MuKa/DMK family faithful’s. Also the bottom-fishing from assorted far-left nutcases like Seeman and Kamal Hassan et al, amply supported by the BIF forces tilted the balance further against BJP.

The way out is to make Stalin irrelevant just like CBN is now.



CBN's troubles are just getting started.

AS will finish him politically.

there is some personal history here and CBN has picked the wrong guy this time around.

All BJP guys are not like ABA.

CBN was given a warning during AS's victory speech at the BJP HQ last evening and he and a whole lot of politicos just could not have missed that.

All the vile chatter about EVM rigging simply died down very quickly once the results started to come in.

but some who spearheaded it will not escape unscathed.

there is not a single politico, friendly as well as unfriendly, who has any doubt about AS's capacity and capability to politically decimate them, with or without elections.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby chandrasekaran » 24 May 2019 16:48

Those who argue that the results in TN are a vote against ADMK are missing two things.

#1. The electorate gave 9 seats (vs 11 to DMK) in the assembly election by-polls. Good enough to let the current govt. survive its full term.
#2. Before the elections, in a poll about who is the "best person" for PM, TN voted RaGa and that too by a wide margin.

IMHO BJP couldn't counter the 24x7 campaign in all of print, TV and Cinema which pinned all of the blame to BJP for every thing in the lat 5 years.
Wing Co Abhi is from TN. Neither his capture, nor his dramatic release was big news in TN. The situation is that bad.
Last edited by chandrasekaran on 24 May 2019 16:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Singha » 24 May 2019 16:51

was RaGa liked for his fair complexion or some other attribute?

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby chandrasekaran » 24 May 2019 16:56

No idea. TN loved Rajiv Gandhi, that's for sure. Imagine, the only state (not sure of Kerala) which thought Ra Ga would make a way better PM than Shri Modi. I am not making this up. Btw, this poll included all the urban areas including Chennai

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Bart S » 24 May 2019 17:08

chandrasekaran wrote:Those who argue that the results in TN are a vote against ADMK are missing two things.

#1. The electorate gave 9 seats (vs 11 to DMK) in the assembly election by-polls. Good enough to let the current govt. survive its full term.
#2. Before the elections, in a poll about who is the "best person" for PM, TN voted RaGa and that too by a wide margin.

IMHO BJP couldn't counter the 24x7 campaign in all of print, TV and Cinema which pinned all of the blame to BJP for every thing in the lat 5 years.
Wing Co Abhi is from TN. Neither his capture, nor his dramatic release was big news in TN. The situation is that bad.


1> Such one-off bypoll elections are heavily dependent on the candidate who is running in that constituency. Cant really link it with any wider wave, let along a desire to keep ADMK in power in the state.

2> These polls are basically nonsense and can be curated to portray whatever vested interests want. One can't take them seriously. However, there was a lot of social media propaganda (part of politics nowadays, cant read too much into it) for and against Modi, whereas Rahul Gandhi was by and large invisible. DMK has always been good at media management and communication, and Modi just happened to be on the opposing side. The only real anti-Modi sentiment that I have seen was due to GST, with a lot of small businesses going bust and causing joblessness with the owners sparing no effort to blame GST and Modi (I fully support GST BTW). Basically the whole cash and tax-free ecosystem got destroyed and is still being rebuilt in a more tax-compliant manner and there was disruption on the ground.

I wouldn't agree with the statement about Wing co, there was palpable pride in most circles about him being from TN, and there was even a
popular trend of people requesting 'Abhi mustaches' at hairdressing saloons. The fact that post return, he has not been able to return to TN and the IAF have kept him out of the media and limelight means that there is no local fanfare or welcoming/garlanding etc but that does not mean that people don't care about him.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby Bart S » 24 May 2019 17:13

Singha wrote:was RaGa liked for his fair complexion or some other attribute?


Maybe, but probably not that much. It is questionable whether anybody outside the liberal circles actually prefer him, but probably the fact that he spoke in English (which a lot more people can follow) rather than Hindi, and probably the lack of distaste for political dynasties yet in TN, the fact that local politicians and meme makers etc did not target him as much as they did Modi etc, might have played a part.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby hanumadu » 24 May 2019 17:24

Looking by the vote percent for BJP In AP (<1%), there seems to be a massive cross voting by BJP in favour of YSRCP.
I also suspect there was cross voting by BJP in favour of TRS during the assembly elections. BJP got 8% vote then to 20% now.
Congress is surprisingly strong in Telangana. A lot of TDP folks crossed over to congress apart from TRS. I was hoping BJP could attract some of them.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby chandrasekaran » 24 May 2019 17:26

It was not a one off by poll. People clearly knew the importance of this one. ADMK needed 9+ seats to survive, not one or two sneaky victory.
I was just pointing out that the one sided anti-BJP wave (look at the victory margins) we saw in the loksabha elections, doesn't show up in the assembly elections, that happened at the same time. It was almost 50-50 here.

About the polls, I too wouldn't have taken in seriously, if it wasn't followed up by one of the most humiliating defeat (in terms of margins) for BJP. I haven't compared the numbers against 2014, but I am reasonably certain (will apologize if it turns out to be a false claim) that the losing margin this time for BJP was way more than 2014.

Now, coming to Wing. Co. for his achievement and the fact that the govt. was ready ready for a full scale war with a nuclear armed state to secure his release, went completely under the radar. Plus all the other schemes that Shri Modi govt ran for the common man. I read that the total number of people that availed loan under the PM's Mudra loan scheme exceeded 10 crore in TN alone and yet TN couldn't give a single MP to BJP ? Forget victory, not even a close contest in areas like Tiruppur or Coimbatore ?

Even when crores and crores of rupees were unearthed in vellore from DMK gang, possibly the biggest pre election haul of cash ever, resulting in the only constituency where election was postponed, the common man in TN was completely indifferent. The general public at large has shown apathy to corruption and is ready to accept money to vote. As mush as this is unpalatable, this is the only explanation for a person like karti Chidambaram to be voted back as an MP. He came 4th in 2014 btw.

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Re: Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - news and strategy thread

Postby UlanBatori » 24 May 2019 17:39

Quoting hnair:
Kummanam-chettan has vast name recognition since '80s

Beg to differ. He may have name-recognition among CPI(M) goons, and the yindoo Faithful and perhaps among the Al Qaeda(Al Malloo gang) but ask some propah convent-ejjikated / Christ Callege grads who form the bulk of the "educated" yindoo lower middle through upper wealth classes and u will get a reaction like asking Pumpkiji about Smritiji in 2014. He is not in the Quiz / IAS exam mug-list unlike Prince Harry's bambino. This is what needs to change.
First, they don't see themselves as "Hindu" only as "agnostic/World Citizens" except at birth,marriage (if that) and death and taking brats to rice-eating. Don't know why they bother, could take said brats to rooh afzah/grits eating for all the smarts that they exhibit (sorry!!)
How to change this?
The big uncertainty for E6C when KR promised to come to lunch (in a neighborhood festooned with CPIM hammer/sickle red flags and ppl sitting around by the wayside doing census) was whether he could also leave safely. Then again, they were afraid of him, because all they had heard was he was "violentRSS".
Last edited by UlanBatori on 24 May 2019 17:41, edited 1 time in total.


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