Gus wrote:campaign dynamics are different in each state, and a lot different in TN compared to west/north. Here people took the schemes for granted and retained the bad propaganda against modi. Local BJP failed abjectly to counter and go on offensive.
Suraj wrote:Having lived there some years, gone to school and university there, it’s clear there’s an ingrained political sentiment that views all politics solely thru the DMK vs ADMK prism, and the state simply decides to switch between the two every 5 years.
TN & KL, I guess have lots of things in common when it comes to political thought process. In TN, the anti-Hindi
agitation is still a very strong sentiment, which the DMK groups have been able to constantly exploit. And it was not the BJP who tried forcing Hindi down the throats of TN people, but the very "secular" Congress. But TN based parties have now mastered the art in using this ill-thought plan of Congress against any one forming the central government.
Both the states also seems to actively encourage a kind of superiority complex amongst the general populace by spreading a message that the states survived without any help from any other state (or the central governments). TN, any way is more industrially developed and also self sufficient when it comes to agriculture. KL on the other hand tried to use the 100% literacy
, and the fat remittances (and black money) coming from the Middle East to flout their material well being. The state level parties actively encouraged this thought, so much so that the general population very strongly believes that they are self reliant, and need not depend upon Indian Union (and other states) for their well being. My observation is that such sentiments are very strong in people who are also working for the various state government departments. And most of such characters generally do not travel outside the state in any official capacity, and have no clue on how the rest of India is. Keeping the people in this kind of "dream world" also helps the state level parties; the common people are not going to question the state governments much. KL is a classic example for sending in MPs to Parliament who has not been able to do any lobbying; even when the "seculars" were running the show. They just try to play smart by using their MPLAD funds. TN I feel is slightly better here, because their MPs are known to have better clout in the Lok Sabha
In KL, the local Hindu community is pretty much dhimmified
. There are caste based issues on one hand, and plus there are no more powerful groups/families of Hindus in KL any more. Business is perhaps what keeps the economy and state going, and this area is predominantly in the hands of RoL and RoP who have a natural inclination to take up business and do well in it. So much so that today they have the maximum money to spare. And this wealth also allows them to get into good relationships with the state governments, as well media houses etc. As the saying goes; one who pays the piper, calls the tunes
. None of the major media establishment in KL can survive by antagonising RoL and RoP people. If there is even a minor thought of Hindu resurgence (for example, Sabari Mala temple issue) the communists would be focusing on stamping it down, with active support of media houses etc. And in general people are also kind of kept in a trance of 100% literacy, false sense of superiority, and intellectual what-aboutery
. In TN perhaps such an eco system do exist, but I am not too sure.
In such well entrenched setup, BJP or any other party would find it tough to get a foot hold. There cannot be a single way to fix all these. Point #1, there has to be leaders in BJP who have a long term vision, rather than just being fixers & wheeler-dealers in for some quick money. Point #2, these people need to have the inclination to take help from their cadre in the rest of India. They should be focusing on getting the central government to look into long time national security issues happening in their states. In TN & KL, Hindu religion is generally practised at home and if there are no major causes of concern people would remain "secular" (and quickly go for a plate of beef
). The commies and "seculars" are also fine with this arrangement.
nvishal wrote: BJP will never win here. Those castes(radhakrishnans, sreevivasans etc) will check out(migrate). The two dogmatic systems will clash and state will experience unrest and instability. At this point, the syrians(both hindu syrian and christian syrian) will migrate upwards to south karnataka.
There are NO Hindu syrians
. There are only Syrian Christians. And they are the most assimilated group in KL. Migration of youth etc. is happening in KL for ages together. Earlier it was limited to Middle East (and for the lucky ones Europe and US). But thanks to IT-Vity etc., a lot of Kerala youth now also migrate to other parts of India. The advantage is that they also get to know about other Indian states and have a better idea on national integration. A lot of such people have "converted" from communism to Hindutwa.