2019 General Elections : Results Discussion

[KL Dubey]

He can aspire to LOP position in the next GE. No party that contested in 2019 won enough seats to stake a claim to LOP. 55 seats are required. INC has 52, of which 8 are just DMK seat sharing arragement - their native seat count is 44, same as last time.

I don't think he has much aspiration. He is doing this politics job because his mother told him to. Probably will not even show up in sansad most of the time, let alone lead UPA there.....a total "ozhappan" as they say in malayalam.

[Suraj]

Does anyone know whether Lok Sabha maintains records of attendance and voting profile like they have in US Congress ? I recall an article indicating RaGa had a very poor attendance record in the 16th Lok Sabha , but I have no idea where that article is and where they got data from .

[souravB]

Here you go for the lok sabha attendance.
This is also a good website to track LS performance.

[ramana]

Think about what's not touchable, runs in parallel, follows different laws: religious establishments, education establishments, etc.

Drugs and alcohol are other platforms that are being used in Gujarat. Telegram and signal are preferred choice of apps.

Sahi pakde aap!

I did a study of how the funds move since Karnataka elections and realized religious and education trusts are the money laundering vehicles.
Its now all pervasive.
Worst is private medical college admissions.

[Sanju]

Think about what's not touchable, runs in parallel, follows different laws: religious establishments, education establishments, etc.

Drugs and alcohol are other platforms that are being used in Gujarat. Telegram and signal are preferred choice of apps.

Sahi pakde aap!

I did a study of how the funds move since Karnataka elections and realized religious and education trusts are the money laundering vehicles.
Its now all pervasive.
Worst is private medical college admissions.

Just before assembly elections in KA, they raised the fees for candidates... Both OCI and capitation fee candidates.

With OCI candidates they get 'white' money.

[ramana]

Dear @BRF admin
There are a few people on Twitter who have analyzed RTE thread bare.
Maybe , for future education's sake, it makes sense to invite him here to explain the details.
Just a thought/suggestion.

Are you talking of @AmitSurg?

[ramana]

The latest approach are for 3 south CMs to get together and fan south vs north division. Naidu will join this.

The public sector debt of each is very high. I think combined will be even more astronomical.
TN has 4.5 lakh crores debt, AP has 2.25 lakh crores. (Equals 6.25 Lakh Crores i.e. ~$94B)*
I don't know how much TG, Karnataka, and Kerala have but would be quite large.
Now which fool would lend that kind of money to these states?

* One lakh Crores (In units) = 10,00,00,00,00,000 (12 Zeroes).
One lakh crores (In US Dollars) = $15,380,000,000 ($15.38 Billion).

[Suraj]

Here you go for the lok sabha attendance.
This is also a good website to track LS performance.

Excellent , thank you !

[asbchakri]

The latest approach are for 3 south CMs to get together and fan south vs north division. Naidu will join this.

The public sector debt of each is very high. I think combined will be even more astronomical.
TN has 4.5 lakh crores debt, AP has 2.25 lakh crores. (Equals 6.25 Lakh Crores i.e. ~$94B)*
I don't know how much TG, Karnataka, and Kerala have but would be quite large.
Now which fool would lend that kind of money to these states?

* One lakh Crores (In units) = 10,00,00,00,00,000 (12 Zeroes).
One lakh crores (In US Dollars) = $15,380,000,000 ($15.38 Billion).

I guess China - not a fool tough but for other reasons. Not that i want it to happen.

I still think its posturing, they can never do that.

[A_Gupta]

....and Nehru, a civilized Enlightened Hindu...

Someone reminded me that this "civilized enlightened" is just the opposite of the general Hindu jahiliyat. My primitive Hindu mind had not remembered this on its own

Per the non-jail folks, India had a Harrapan Golden Age, a Vedic Dark Ages, a Buddhist Golden Age, a Gupta Dark Ages, an Islamic Enlightenment, and so on.......

[Picklu]

In any other country, they would be tried for treason by now.

Chill...let the three come up with a water sharing formula for Kaveri & Mullaperiyar such opportunistic alliances will unravel in a jiffy.

Absolutely, hence none taking them seriously, beyond keeping a tab on the shenanigans for future reference

[Picklu]

Think about what's not touchable, runs in parallel, follows different laws: religious establishments, education establishments, etc.

Drugs and alcohol are other platforms that are being used in Gujarat. Telegram and signal are preferred choice of apps.

Sahi pakde aap!

I did a study of how the funds move since Karnataka elections and realized religious and education trusts are the money laundering vehicles.
Its now all pervasive.
Worst is private medical college admissions.

Actually the advance hair cut is the reason for anti incumbency for both Left and TMC in WB.

There is another source of parking the money and that's donation to political parties. The individual amounts are not much to attract ED etc such as 40k for a 2 lakh awas yojna loan but huge for the poor. Both left and TMC used to get around this by spliting 20k for the party fund donation and 20k for the local enforcer who further splits this 20k to himself, family members and his goon squad hence almost impossible to track. The political party actively sets target for collection and since no receipt required for below 20k donation (each 20k donation gets split into 2 by husband and wife), it flys under the radar.

[KJo]

....and Nehru, a civilized Enlightened Hindu...

Someone reminded me that this "civilized enlightened" is just the opposite of the general Hindu jahiliyat. My primitive Hindu mind had not remembered this on its own

Per the non-jail folks, India had a Harrapan Golden Age, a Vedic Dark Ages, a Buddhist Golden Age, a Gupta Dark Ages, an Islamic Enlightenment, and so on.......

Anyone who panders to Peacefuls and Lovers is an enlightened Hindu. Others are all Jaahils.
I follow Shashi Tharoor and these days he goes around defending the Congress failed position and failed leader pappu till he is blue in the face. You can tell that he himself does not buy what he is selling.

But he knows his career is limited as long as Gandhis rule Congress.

[srin]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ajit-doval-reappointed-as-nsa-given-cabinet-rank-5762358/
Ajit Doval reappointed as NSA for five years, given cabinet rank

its a protocol thing for the babucrats to talk to him.

Funny thing is that just a day before one of the DDM had said that Amit Shah has HM meant that Doval's wings were clipped
Anyway, below is another reasonable coupta analysis:
- he mentions something called Strategic Policy Group that Doval is heading (around 6months ago, the same Coupta had criticised the formation of SPG), and that cabinet rank is going to help there.
- Also, he'll be equivalent to the new EAM and
- finally, he's the first National Security Minister of India.

[Atmavik]

^^^ coupta is sailing with the wind.

[g.sarkar]

Pickluji,
TMC is totally corrupt at every level. CPM was also corrupt, but there was still an ideology and its leaders were aware of this. Let me give an anecdote, when you become old, all you have left are anecdotes. When my father passed (God bless), he left me a white elephant in Salt Lake City, with a request not to sell the house, but keep a family home there. So, I have kept the house occupied with a Gorkha family and when I go there occasionally, I spend some money on repairs. Last year I was there, I spent about 1.5 lakhs on some repairs inside the house. I wanted also to do the outside, and the handyman told me that that would cause some friction with the “Syndicate”. Inside no one can see, but once you put a bamboo scaffolding outside, the syndicate will approach and offer three alternatives, 1. Purchase the material from them, bad material at high prices. 2. “Employ” one or two boys, who will be in payroll but do no work. 3. Pay the syndicate money directly, so that the boys do not create trouble and beat up the workers. Since there was not enough time, I postponed the outside repairs for the time being and asked the handyman to repair from inside. Now, Salt Lake has become a posh area in Kolkata. Houses are going for crores and presumably owners are thick with the political crowd due to their financial clout. But this is happening quite openly. I asked around and was told by a couple of people that all construction work in Salt Lake City has to go through the syndicate and they collect money for Didi or else the construction cannot proceed. Simple. This corruption is now accepted by all. As against this, I did an extensive repair about 18 years ago, and the local CPM boys of that time came looking for jobs. They were given a few hundred rupees for sweets by the contractor and went away without any trouble.
"Poriborton" has come.
Gautam

[ramana]

^^^ coupta is sailing with the wind.

While releasing wind

[Suraj]

[dipak]

Does PM Modi have the beginnings of a new narrative, that can be an aspirational target for all Indians?

That can start only when Indians have access to basic necessities of life, don't crap in the streets, India is clean and functional, and its citizens are not themselves deracinated Hinduphobes.. IMHO the basics of what Modi is working on. Which will ultimately overwhelm the NYT, Guardian, Economist propaganda and break the citadels of the organized Hinduphobia led by the left. They want a million mutinees. What will they do when their planned for would be mutineers (i.e SC/STs, OBCs, deracinated regular Yindoos) turn into Yinduvadis and target them instead? That's what they hate so much about Modi. The presumption an OBC could show to overturn the agenda they had set.

Absolutely. And additionally, it will get the west down from their high horse, that zillions of Indians defecating in open, without access to potable water ..blah blah, every time ISRO or other institutions achieve some milestone.
It would be fun to watch the western thanedar without his usual preaching danda at many such occasions to come.

[Suraj]

The west’s opinion is the least of our concerns . It is criminal negligence of 70 decades of political rule that even the party coming into power in 2014 faced a country where 60% of the rural population (who comprise 65-70% of population) had no access to toilets, running water, roads, electricity, fuel, or a bank account .

Even PRC and SE Asia fixed this stuff between the 1970s and 1990s. It’s not rocket science - it is bread and butter basics. In fact we figured out rocket science first ... Just giving them these basics in a focused and determined manner far ahead of prior rate of improvement, gets you a historical mandate .

What Modi has found is the way to connect economic reforms to political success - first fix the basic quality of life at the bottom . Give them basic dignity and upgraded quality of living , and they will give you the mandate and space you need to implement top line reforms .

Getting most basics (except water and housing) to >90% coverage earned Modi 303 / 354 . Fix the water and housing by 2024 and he will be in the reckoning for 330-360 seats next time .

[mmasand]

What Modi has found is the way to connect economic reforms to political success - first fix the basic quality of life at the bottom . Give them basic dignity and upgraded quality of living , and they will give you the mandate and space you need to implement top line reforms .

This is the an underemphasized, singular analysis for political pundits to read, re-read, and ponder over. I can't imagine the number of intelligentsia unemployed as a consequence of their flawed arithmetic to predict the results. If one were to leave out the nationalistic sentiments aside, Modi would return albeit with a slightly lesser number of seats. For every alliance partner (AIADMK, SAD, JDU), the question is - are you for empowering people to chart their own destiny?

[rgosain]

This is what Ai Wei Wei says of the Wests's media ie cnn, nyt, etc and their complicity in doing PR and being a mouthpiece for the PRC.
In fact this still continues with the likes of Twitter promoting and and censoring any content that is disparaging of the PRC. Now compare that to the Western media's demonisation and disinformation re the election.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/04/china-tiananmen-square-beijing

[Sachin]

The latest approach are for 3 south CMs to get together and fan south vs north division. Naidu will join this.

I was thinking I would never have to say this explicitly. The 3 South CMs (and the states) have enough and more problems and a nudge and push here and there will make them busy fighting each other. TN has problems over water from both KA and KL. KL is a basket case state, which still depends heavily on food & vegetable stuff from KA and TN. All these 100% literacy & we have Gelf money etc. will not fly for long. KA is pretty much self-dependent, and may not be willing to toe the line set up by TN or KL. And KA also has a sizeable BJP/RSS presence. A few Cauvery Water Board directives is all that is required for the 3 South CMs to be at each other's throat .

[Rahul M]

... Lets say, tomorrow, 3 MLAs from DMK switch over to INC thereby enabling them to meet the 55 mark. Will INC get the LOP or should INC get 11 MLAs to qualify for LOP.

MP's, you mean.

and no, because MP's who change parties this way would be disqualified through anti-defection law. https://www.prsindia.org/theprsblog/ant ... -explained
at least 2/3 MP's have to break away from a party in order to continue as MP's.
INC now has 52 MP's. they might regain a few from by-elections where bjp doesn't have a great record.

[Kashi]

What bye-elections? LS elections results are not even fortnight old yet and we are having MP by-elections?

[Singha]

MHA has prepared a shitlist of top10 kashmir terrorists. they are to be hunted down.

[rgosain]

MHA has prepared a shitlist of top10 kashmir terrorists. they are to be hunted down.

The western media tends to glorifies terrorism against india by referring to terrorists as "charismatic", "popular", "respected militants"
The fact that this is done with some synchronicity shows indicates a level of scripting and editorial collusion

[chetak]

from the new Indian express

Rahul Gandhi citizenship row: MHA refuses to share details on notice to Congress chief

04th June 2019 02:20 PM

In April, the Home Ministry served a notice to Gandhi, asking him to clarify within a fortnight his 'factual position' on a complaint by BJP's Rajya Sabha MP Subramanian Swamy.


NEW DELHI: The Home Ministry has refused to share details on its notice to Congress president Rahul Gandhi following a complaint questioning his Indian citizenship, citing provisions of the RTI Act barring disclosure of information that will, among other things, impede the investigation.

In April, the Home Ministry served a notice to Gandhi, asking him to clarify within a fortnight his "factual position" on a complaint by BJP's Rajya Sabha MP Subramanian Swamy questioning his citizenship status.

In an RTI application, the ministry was asked to provide a copy of the notice to Gandhi and details of the response received from him.

"The information sought cannot be disclosed under Section 8 (1) (h) and (j) of the RTI Act," it said in response to the application filed by PTI.

Section 8 (1) (h) bars disclosure of "information which would impede the process of investigation or apprehension or prosecution of offenders".

Provision (j) bars "information which relates to personal information the disclosure of which has no relationship to any public activity or interest, or which would cause unwarranted invasion of the privacy of the individual".

Citing Swamy's letter, the Home Ministry said in its notice that it has been brought out that a company named Backops Limited was registered in the United Kingdom in 2003 with Gandhi as one of its directors.

Swamy's letter also mentioned that in the British company's annual returns filed on October 10, 2005 and October 31, 2006, Gandhi's date of birth has been given as June 19, 1970, and he declared his nationality as British, the ministry said.

"Further, in the dissolution application dated February 17, 2009, of the above-referred company, your nationality has been mentioned as British.

"You are requested to intimate the factual position in the matter to this ministry within a fortnight of the receipt of this communication," the notice said.

Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi had then said, "I have never heard such rubbish. All know Rahul Gandhi was born, raised here".

"The entire Hindustan knows that Rahul Gandhi is a Hindustani. He was born before them. He was brought up before them. He grew up before them. What rubbish is this," she said.

In November 2015, the Supreme Court dismissed a public interest litigation seeking a CBI investigation into the Congress chief's citizenship.

It noted that PIL pleas were not meant to target one individual or organisation but were a medium to resolve human suffering through good governance.

Replying to another query in the RTI application, the Home Ministry said it is not required to maintain records of notices issued to individuals on their citizenship status.

"No such records are required to be maintained as per the provisions of the Citizenship Act, 1955 and rules framed thereunder. Hence, information may be treated as 'Nil'," it said.

The ministry was asked to provide details on notice(s) issued to all individuals questioning their citizenship status between 2009 and 2019.

[ramana]

Any idea who filed the RTI?
That could give a clue for the rejection of the release.

[ramana]

The latest approach are for 3 south CMs to get together and fan south vs north division. Naidu will join this.

I was thinking I would never have to say this explicitly. The 3 South CMs (and the states) have enough and more problems and a nudge and push here and there will make them busy fighting each other. TN has problems over water from both KA and KL. KL is a basket case state, which still depends heavily on food & vegetable stuff from KA and TN. All these 100% literacy & we have Gelf money etc. will not fly for long. KA is pretty much self-dependent, and may not be willing to toe the line set up by TN or KL. And KA also has a sizeable BJP/RSS presence. A few Cauvery Water Board directives is all that is required for the 3 South CMs to be at each other's throat .

There is a reason I added the public debt of the two states. This USI will have to pay that debt. Which one of them is willing to share the burden?
And add to your littany of woes, Telangana and Andhra share Krishna river and Godavari with Maharashtra.

The rascal Ram Guha wants to add Maharashtra to this USI!

[ramana]

MHA has prepared a shitlist of top10 kashmir terrorists. they are to be hunted down.

The western media tends to glorifies terrorism against india by referring to terrorists as "charismatic", "popular", "respected militants"
The fact that this is done with some synchronicity shows indicates a level of scripting and editorial collusion

hence on SM we need to counter those messages.
One eminent US Chicago professor called CRPF a legitimate target for terrorists and I countered him.
Sadly not one of my BRF followers Retweeted it!!!

[chetak]

so what.

If true, it was a strategy that surely worked.

The current leadership of the BJP certainly has the chutzpah as well as the testimonials to implement just such a move and still come out on top.

[KJo]

An ultra RW pro Modi friend of mine (to absurd levels) claims that BJP lost those states on purpose. He claims very chankyan onlee. Now why would anyone lose an election on purpose and how would that help in GE2019?

[mmasand]

An ultra RW pro Modi friend of mine (to absurd levels) claims that BJP lost those states on purpose. He claims very chankyan onlee. Now why would anyone lose an election on purpose and how would that help in GE2019?

The only reasonable explanation is to go with the tide, Chouhan faced anti-incumbency, Raje was a liability given her dubious past, and enormous levels of corruption.

[A_Gupta]

If the BJP state governments are seen as non-performing, they will not be re-elected, regardless of what high regard voters have for PM Modi.

[pankajs]

The latest approach are for 3 south CMs to get together and fan south vs north division. Naidu will join this.

I was thinking I would never have to say this explicitly. The 3 South CMs (and the states) have enough and more problems and a nudge and push here and there will make them busy fighting each other. TN has problems over water from both KA and KL. KL is a basket case state, which still depends heavily on food & vegetable stuff from KA and TN. All these 100% literacy & we have Gelf money etc. will not fly for long. KA is pretty much self-dependent, and may not be willing to toe the line set up by TN or KL. And KA also has a sizeable BJP/RSS presence. A few Cauvery Water Board directives is all that is required for the 3 South CMs to be at each other's throat .

Absolutely!

There are so many pressure points that it is laughable.

[pankajs]

The rascal Ram Guha wants to add Maharashtra to this USI!

Has that dumbo even consulted the Maharasthrians at all!

I of course do not speak on behalf of the Maharasthrians BUT have hardly heard any noise from them on their discontent with "North India". Moreover, based on the language criteria actively pushed by the "Dravida Nadu" proponents, Marathi sound much closer to Hindi than to any south Indian language at least to my "North Indian" ears.

[disha]

The rascal Ram Guha wants to add Maharashtra to this USI!

Idiot Ram Guha does not get it. He can vent as much as possible, but again when were they ever accused of being connected with ground realities?

Problem is that if Maharashtra is added to United states of South India, then one has to add S. Gujarat and S. Madhya Pradesh to the list. Mumbai is more closer to Gujarat than it is to Pune. For all practical purposes, the "Bombay-se-Badoda-taak" is one giant industrial & agricultural corridor extremely interdependent on each other.

Problem with adding S. Gujarat to USI will be that now N. Gujarat (incl. Kutch) has to be added to USI. The waters of Narmada originate from W. MP and are piped all the way to Rajashthan. Given the interdependency, we can as well add Raj, Haryana, N. MP & Punjab to the mix.

It is easier to rename India as United States of Indian Continent (USIC) instead of bifurcating or trifurcating it. Naming it USIC will keep majority happy (since it can be sold as easier to go to US) but then some gelf-based Keralites will be upset. And the round repeats!

Given that, lets just call it India or Bharat and move on.

[pankajs]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 649734.cms
Karnataka JD(S) chief quits, flays functioning of coalition with Congress

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/co ... 71287.html
Revolt Brews in Karnataka Cong as Leader's Letter Blames Sidelining of Seniors, Zero Coordination for Defeat

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/w ... hip-103007
Why some Congress leaders want Siddaramaiah out of state leadership

[disha]

I of course do not speak on behalf of the Maharasthrians BUT have hardly heard any noise from them on their discontent with "North India". Moreover, based on the language criteria actively pushed by the "Dravida Nadu" proponents, Marathi sound much closer to Hindi than to any south Indian language at least to my "North Indian" ears.

I can understand spoken Marathi and Tamizh to a certain degree (intermediate level?)., When I hear Marathi, I end up responding in Hindi (which I know very well) and when I hear Tamizh, I end up responding in Telugu! (which I know at a v. good level).

My theory is that if you learn four (4) Indian languages very well, your brain starts processing language at a meta-level. It just becomes some sort of super-fluid where you are able to pull any word from vocabulary and it starts making perfect sense.