2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 25 Jun 2019 17:22

Karthik S wrote:So Sachin sir was right all along. If what ST says is true (about his involvement, we all now BJP's involvement ), BJP just used Sabarimala as another RJB.

chetak wrote:wasn't there some confusion in the RSS as well and along with this some local BJP functionary supported the entry of women into the temple.

Karthik S wrote:IIRC, it was RSS guys from nagpur who were pro entry. Many of them are atheists so not surprising.

Prasad wrote:Tharoor is just muddying the waters as usual. That doesn't mean he is beyond questioning or that what he's saying in't true. He is after all the one who tabled the equality bill. A bill that can do as much damage, if not more, than RTE.

chetak wrote:re sabarimala, the BJP was dealt a good hand which they then foolishly squandered by playing a losing game.

When the Sabari Mala verdict came out the only folks in KL who had a plan were the commies. There plan was to use this verdict to completely change the faith system associated with this hill temple in KL. The commies were (and are) looking for a Tirupathi/Tirumala Hills like temple in KL, mainly to misuse the money coming in as donations. They are selection grade crooks, but they had a plan.

The Congress also was wishy-washy in the issue, but at least the local Congress leaders (like Prayar Gopalakrishnan; who was once the Travancore Devaswom Board president) immediately started taking counter measures. His was one of the first review petitions to be filed. The Congress (at a national level) kept a safe distance, but Gopalakrishnan was given help by folks like Zero loss Sibal.

The BJP folks too first supported the verdict. There were also rumours that RSS was also in favour of making every Hindu temple gender neutral (though I did not see any direct statement from them in Sabari Mala temple alone). But soon at least in social media the earlier stances taken by BJP leadership started doing its round. Soon the stances of few RSS leaders favouring the verdict also started coming out.

The most damaging speech came from Adv. Sreedharan Pillai in which he openly stated that "Sabari mala is a golden opportunity for us". This video footage leak most likely was because of the in-fighting within KL state BJP. So we can clearly see that the BJP in KL is totally confused with primary focus area being infighting and groupism.

What improved things to a large extent was that the average Hindu felt that justice was not being done to Sabari Mala. It was this other wise docile Hindus who actually took to the streets. There were also a large number of RSS cadre who were Ayyappa bhakthas first, and BJP fans only after that. These people also could channelise the protests to a good extent. Here again it was their true angst on what is happening at the temple which forced them to take some action. Some BJP leaders like K. Surendran also did their best to keep the issue alive. BJP's state TV channel Janam TV actually did a stellar job (perhaps much better than the "leadership"). The commies also misjudged the whole protests and tried to assume that it was all BJP & RSS sponsored programs, and tried to deal it in that way (police cases etc. etc.). To be frank people did have their faith in BJP & RSS lifted during these protests. But now it also becomes the BJP's responsibility to value that trust, and work for issue resolution.

The commies will take a step back, since they knew their vote bank has been affected. But once they regain that, they will use the same court verdict again to further their agendas, with better planning. And all the while if BJP sits there saying "it is a golden opportunity for us", they will have to sit idle for quite some time. The Congress would certainly corner BJP here (one attempt already made), the commies will go back and tell KL Hindus that BJP & RSS are cheats. And by then if Hon.SC goes through the review petitions and amends its orders; then "golden opportunity" for BJP in KL is gone for ever as well :).

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 25 Jun 2019 19:16

VKumar wrote:The fact is Congress wins by exploiting fears of Muslims and Christians. BJP wins by exploiting fears of Hindus.

That's all there is to Indian politics.

Every party identifies it's support base and exploits the same by creating threats.


Oh please you are not on NDTV or some other bogus pseudo secular DDM. BJP does not exploit fears of Hindus. BJP instills pride in Hindus. And whats wrong with that in an 80% majority Hindu country? If India were truly a democratic country, reflecting the culture and aspirations of majority, it would have resembled USA/UK/Germany etc.
Last edited by CRamS on 25 Jun 2019 23:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 25 Jun 2019 21:16

VKumar its because of your type of thoughts that political issues become verboten on BRF. I am going to ban you.
No excuses.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 25 Jun 2019 21:22

chetak BJP achieved their objectives even though people will disagree.
Defeat LDF in the LS polls.
Consolidate Hindu votes in Kerala.
The vote share is 12%.

viewtopic.php?p=2362849#p2362849


In coming Assy elections the real battle will be between UDF and BJP.
Next round after that will be BJP CM.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 25 Jun 2019 21:31

ramana wrote:chetak BJP achieved their objectives even though people will disagree.
Defeat LDF in the LS polls.
Consolidate Hindu votes in Kerala.
The vote share is 12%.

viewtopic.php?p=2362849#p2362849


In coming Assy elections the real battle will be between UDF and BJP.
Next round after that will be BJP CM.


I will listen to the wisdom of ramanaji. During election, he was the soothsayer and he turned out to be right. No one believed BJP would win 18 seats WB last month. Also everyone blamed Modi and AS after 2014 that they gave up on WB in 2016 and lost it forever. Come 2019, we are ready for a change. Mamta is asking to return the bribe money. Let's be patient with AP and Kerala and hope we change things in long term.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 25 Jun 2019 21:37

vijayk wrote:
ramana wrote:chetak BJP achieved their objectives even though people will disagree.
Defeat LDF in the LS polls.
Consolidate Hindu votes in Kerala.
The vote share is 12%.

viewtopic.php?p=2362849#p2362849


In coming Assy elections the real battle will be between UDF and BJP.
Next round after that will be BJP CM.


I will listen to the wisdom of ramanaji. During election, he was the soothsayer and he turned out to be right. No one believed BJP would win 18 seats WB last month. Also everyone blamed Modi and AS after 2014 that they gave up on WB in 2016 and lost it forever. Come 2019, we are ready for a change. Mamta is asking to return the bribe money. Let's be patient with AP and Kerala and hope we change things in long term.


with AS and NM, the BJP will not give up.

centuries of damage will have to be undone gradually.

the overton window has shifted quite dramatically and it needs to keep shifting further.

patience.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 25 Jun 2019 22:00

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
This stirring ode to the Gods & Goddesses of Himachal is quietly becoming a virtual anthem of Devbhoomi...
(link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LShkNCiSsvs) youtube.com/watch?v=LShkNC…


There is a slowly developing undercurrent of a new kind of #BhaktiMovement in India, where the young believe its 'cool' to be forthrightly Hindu!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 25 Jun 2019 22:10

chetak wrote:
vijayk wrote:
I will listen to the wisdom of ramanaji. During election, he was the soothsayer and he turned out to be right. No one believed BJP would win 18 seats WB last month. Also everyone blamed Modi and AS after 2014 that they gave up on WB in 2016 and lost it forever. Come 2019, we are ready for a change. Mamta is asking to return the bribe money. Let's be patient with AP and Kerala and hope we change things in long term.


with AS and NM, the BJP will not give up.

centuries of damage will have to be undone gradually.

the overton window has shifted quite dramatically and it needs to keep shifting further.

patience.


exactly. People want Modi to invoke 356 and confront and use force to fight parties like CPM&TMC or charlatans like Mamta/Jagan/Stalin. If they do, most gullible Hindus will oppose them. Media will start a campaign. SC will definitely go against BJP regardless of illegal activities these Govt. do it.

We have to let people take charge and fight against evil.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby disha » 26 Jun 2019 02:49

State and UT health indicators survey for 2015 is out.

As usual #mediapimps will talk nonsense and spread more nonsense. Raita wings will not want to be left behind.

First of all the survey is for 2015/2013-2015 with base year as 2014/2012-2014. So it will not show the intervening advances from 2016 to 2018. Second, the entire report can be downloaded here: http://social.niti.gov.in/uploads/sample/health_index_report.pdf

Please quote the above (and not some #mediapimp like rNDTV) to cite improvement or regression.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 26 Jun 2019 04:58

vijayk we need to understand the importance of 18 MP seats in Bengal. The MLA segments for each MP seat are 7 in Bengal. In other words BJP got 18*7 = 126. They should have go 23 seats but for some hitches.
I asked inbengla thread a seat by seat break out of the election results.
I am willing to bet that even in the TMC seats there were assy segments that BJP won.
Will take time but will get the data.
Jihadidi is walking zombie.

May be enterprising members can do some data crunching.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kakkaji » 26 Jun 2019 05:25

Ramanaji

You can get seat by seat data from the election commission of India website

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhik » 26 Jun 2019 07:09

^^^
They don't release more assembly level data correct? Only LS seat level.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 26 Jun 2019 07:18

abhik wrote:^^^
They don't release more assembly level data correct? Only LS seat level.

abhik They do but takes time to collate it.

What I am looking for is how the assy segments voted in each MP seat!!!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 26 Jun 2019 09:12

Would it impact BJP preparations in WB and KL once AS checks out of Presidentship and Nadda Ji takes over ?
In theory, Who knows JP may turn out to be a bigger tactician than AS.

Meanwhile the edifice build by Chandranna in AP is being dismantled, brick by brick by Jagan.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 26 Jun 2019 09:28

we seem to be stuck with a colonial bureaucracy descended unchanged from the ICS which was tailormade to exclusively serve britshit interests to the exclusion of all else.

So is the police, fully ingrained with a colonial prejudice that is so oppressive to all Indians and meant to exclusively safeguard the interests of their masters and rulers who are the present politicos of today.

Possibly, only the Armed forces emerged, somewhat changed from their earlier avatars though some colonial hangovers and trappings of their past still remain ingrained even today and that may not be such a bad thing at all.

Any army perforce revels in its traditions and past history to foster a feeling of camaraderie and esprit de corps through the Indian Army and other services seem to have majorly shed the trappings of the british seed that gave it its birth and set the traditions, some of which are relevant to us even today.



Our PM and CMs are puppets of the IAS




Our PM and CMs are puppets of the IAS

June 1, 2019, Sanjeev Sabhlok

I’m simplifying things quite a bit when I say that our elected politicians are puppets of the bureaucracy, but as I will show presently, this is a fair comment given our institutional arrangements. Our bureaucracy – taken as a whole – is not only more powerful than any elected chief minister, it is more powerful than the Prime Minister.

This situation is a complete violation of the principles of liberal political theory. In a democracy, the executive should be checked and balanced by the judiciary and parliament. The idea that the unelected machine of government (the bureaucracy) will itself check the executive by exercising independent power was never intended by any theorist of political science.

This huge power of the bureaucracy in India – much greater than the power that even the British Indian bureaucracy wielded – came about during the haste of the 1947 partition and Constitution drafting. Sardar Patel made a strong case in the Constituent Assembly to continue with the colonial bureaucracy. There was no time to think about alternative models. He asked: “Is there any Premier in any province who is prepared to work without the services? He will immediately resign. He cannot manage.”

This panic led to not only the Constitutional inclusion of the all-India services (India is unique in having the public services form part of its Constitution) but the way Part 14 of the Constitution was drafted, enormous restrictions were imposed on the sovereignty of the executive and the People of India. In all democracies, the executive is supreme, with almost unlimited discretionary powers to hire and fire public servants. Not so in India. Article 311 massively dilutes this power and makes it virtually impossible for the executive to remove public servants.

As a result over the past 70 years, even the PMs of India haven’t been able to easily remove corrupt IAS officers, leave alone the incompetent ones. A PM’s entire tenure can go by in chasing up a single case through the courts. There are cases in the Modi government where even compulsory retirement has been insufficient to get rid of bad officers. Our bureaucracy thus sits on a pedestal well above elected representatives. Effectively, it is the IAS that is sovereign in India, not the People.

There is a widely cited but spurious argument that has enabled the IAS to hold on to their powers: that Indians trust their politicians less than they trust IAS officers. The people perceive the IAS to be incompetent, self-interested and arrogant but they trust their political leaders even less. Further, many honest IAS officers, in their genuine concern for India, want the IAS to continue so it can block corrupt politicians. But their remedy does not address the cause of the problem. Fixing the problem of corrupt politicians requires a different approach (which I’ve elaborated elsewhere) and we should not use the existence of bad politicians to justify the world’s most powerful but incompetent bureaucracy.

The main puppet-master in the IAS is the Establishment Officer (EO) in the Ministry of Personnel, about whom most people do not the slightest clue. The EO’s sole purpose is to defend (and expand – to the extent possible) the powers that Patel gave to the IAS. The EO operates behind the scenes, manipulating and controlling (mainly frustrating) the elected government. He dramatically reduces options for the elected representatives on almost all major appointments. And of course, the Cabinet Secretary plays a crucial role in defending the IAS empire directly at the Cabinet. This itself is a huge anomaly. In genuine democracies, a bureaucrat must not have a seat at the political table. In Victoria, an elected MP serves as Cabinet Secretary.

Such is the clout of the EO and Cabinet Secretary that Ministers and Chief Ministers need to send their emissary to the lowly EO to try to influence his decisions. This clearly shows where power lies in India. Our elected politicians have no real powers to deliver their election commitments. Our democracy is thus being choked from within – by the unaccountable and ultra-powerful IAS.

The IAS is unfit for the task of taking India from the Third World to the First World. From my personal experience (and I continue to have good friends within the IAS), no IAS officer comes even remotely close to the competence of middle-level managers in the Australian government. If the pool of administrative leaders in India is so poor, how can India possibly succeed? We need to urgently broaden the talent pool for each job and ensure the right incentives and systems of accountability. The function of EO might have worked for the colonial British government but it simply can’t work in a modern democracy.

This hugely powerful Indian bureaucracy (of which I was once a member) contrasts with the situation in Victoria where the Premier (Chief Minister) of Victoria is the unquestionable boss. He appoints Secretaries, who then appoint other officers down the line. No one can tell the Premier that he can appoint officials only from a “shortlist” prepared by a petty bureaucrat. And if a Secretary doesn’t perform, he is fired without notice. The Premier is fully empowered to get the job done. The link between the voter, his taxes and the performance of the government is direct and unambiguous. No EO sits behind the scenes, stymying the elected executive.

The saving grace for India is that the PM does have a few powers to shop outside the IAS. The recent lateral entry program has been one such rare instance. Some people have questioned the Constitutional power of the PM to do so, but I believe the Constitution allows such limited powers.

The State governments, on the other hand, are in really bad shape. Their freedom to appoint outside the IAS is almost completely circumscribed. In particular, all important posts in the states have been captured by the IAS through IAS cadre rules. These include senior positions in local government bodies, such as municipal corporations. While the IAS system doesn’t, of course, control precisely who is appointed, it ensures that only one of them can hold these posts. In that sense, the Chief Ministers of the States have even less flexibility than the PM.

As a result, IAS officers are able to thumb their nose at State governments. They can go to the EO and get themselves posted to another state or to the Government of India or even abroad. Everything depends on the officer’s relationship with the EO and Cabinet Secretary. That’s why the IAS is such a cosy and exclusive club.

It is high time to bring this dysfunctional and undemocratic system to an end. Within two years the BJP government will have the opportunity to amend the Constitution. IAS is the first thing that must go.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 26 Jun 2019 10:32

this was what hamid ansari was up to when he was the VP.

funding and encouraging snakes and it was also why Modi gave him such a memorable sendoff on retirement

it was the mafia that had so willingly placed him at the very heart of the establishment and this guy was well on his way to becoming the president if fate hadn't intervened so fortutiously




twitter



Under Ex Vice President Hamid Ansrai.

Both, M K Venu & Siddharth Varadarajan, founding editors of The Wire, were paid Rs. 15,000 per appearance from Rajya Sabha TV Venu earned Rs 33 lakh Varadarajan earned Rs 14.70 lakh

And, this all stopped under Vice President Venkaiah Naidu

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshhan » 26 Jun 2019 10:56

Vikas wrote:Would it impact BJP preparations in WB and KL once AS checks out of Presidentship and Nadda Ji takes over ?
In theory, Who knows JP may turn out to be a bigger tactician than AS.

Meanwhile the edifice build by Chandranna in AP is being dismantled, brick by brick by Jagan.


Vikas, AS and JPN look after the bigger picture. For WB BJP has already deputed a master tactician( Kailash Vijaywargia). During LS elections even Sunil Deodhar(of Tripura fame) was deputed to WB. Plus they have Mukul Roy who defected from TMC. In nutshell for Bengal they have a pretty decent team. Organisationally they couldn't have done better. Some more effort is required before West Bengal sees a BJP CM. Should be possible within a year or two.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 26 Jun 2019 11:35

darshhan wrote:Vikas, AS and JPN look after the bigger picture. For WB BJP has already deputed a master tactician( Kailash Vijaywargia). During LS elections even Sunil Deodhar(of Tripura fame) was deputed to WB. Plus they have Mukul Roy who defected from TMC. In nutshell for Bengal they have a pretty decent team.

I don't know such a team has been made ready for KL & TN. I get a feeling that after getting multiple negative feedback on KL's BJP machinery, A.Shah and J.Nadda may first focus on states like WB where they have a better chance of winning. KL can remain like the Gaulish Village in Astreix.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby plushyphen » 26 Jun 2019 12:02

chetak wrote:we seem to be stuck with a colonial bureaucracy descended unchanged from the ICS which was tailormade to exclusively serve britshit interests to the exclusion of all else.

So is the police, fully ingrained with a colonial prejudice that is so oppressive to all Indians and meant to exclusively safeguard the interests of their masters and rulers who are the present politicos of today.

Possibly, only the Armed forces emerged, somewhat changed from their earlier avatars though some colonial hangovers and trappings of their past still remain ingrained even today and that may not be such a bad thing at all.

Any army perforce revels in its traditions and past history to foster a feeling of camaraderie and esprit de corps through the Indian Army and other services seem to have majorly shed the trappings of the british seed that gave it its birth and set the traditions, some of which are relevant to us even today.



Our PM and CMs are puppets of the IAS




Our PM and CMs are puppets of the IAS

June 1, 2019, Sanjeev Sabhlok

I’m simplifying things quite a bit when I say that our elected politicians are puppets of the bureaucracy, but as I will show presently, this is a fair comment given our institutional arrangements. Our bureaucracy – taken as a whole – is not only more powerful than any elected chief minister, it is more powerful than the Prime Minister.

This situation is a complete violation of the principles of liberal political theory. In a democracy, the executive should be checked and balanced by the judiciary and parliament. The idea that the unelected machine of government (the bureaucracy) will itself check the executive by exercising independent power was never intended by any theorist of political science.

This huge power of the bureaucracy in India – much greater than the power that even the British Indian bureaucracy wielded – came about during the haste of the 1947 partition and Constitution drafting. Sardar Patel made a strong case in the Constituent Assembly to continue with the colonial bureaucracy. There was no time to think about alternative models. He asked: “Is there any Premier in any province who is prepared to work without the services? He will immediately resign. He cannot manage.”

This panic led to not only the Constitutional inclusion of the all-India services (India is unique in having the public services form part of its Constitution) but the way Part 14 of the Constitution was drafted, enormous restrictions were imposed on the sovereignty of the executive and the People of India. In all democracies, the executive is supreme, with almost unlimited discretionary powers to hire and fire public servants. Not so in India. Article 311 massively dilutes this power and makes it virtually impossible for the executive to remove public servants.

As a result over the past 70 years, even the PMs of India haven’t been able to easily remove corrupt IAS officers, leave alone the incompetent ones. A PM’s entire tenure can go by in chasing up a single case through the courts. There are cases in the Modi government where even compulsory retirement has been insufficient to get rid of bad officers. Our bureaucracy thus sits on a pedestal well above elected representatives. Effectively, it is the IAS that is sovereign in India, not the People.

There is a widely cited but spurious argument that has enabled the IAS to hold on to their powers: that Indians trust their politicians less than they trust IAS officers. The people perceive the IAS to be incompetent, self-interested and arrogant but they trust their political leaders even less. Further, many honest IAS officers, in their genuine concern for India, want the IAS to continue so it can block corrupt politicians. But their remedy does not address the cause of the problem. Fixing the problem of corrupt politicians requires a different approach (which I’ve elaborated elsewhere) and we should not use the existence of bad politicians to justify the world’s most powerful but incompetent bureaucracy.

The main puppet-master in the IAS is the Establishment Officer (EO) in the Ministry of Personnel, about whom most people do not the slightest clue. The EO’s sole purpose is to defend (and expand – to the extent possible) the powers that Patel gave to the IAS. The EO operates behind the scenes, manipulating and controlling (mainly frustrating) the elected government. He dramatically reduces options for the elected representatives on almost all major appointments. And of course, the Cabinet Secretary plays a crucial role in defending the IAS empire directly at the Cabinet. This itself is a huge anomaly. In genuine democracies, a bureaucrat must not have a seat at the political table. In Victoria, an elected MP serves as Cabinet Secretary.

Such is the clout of the EO and Cabinet Secretary that Ministers and Chief Ministers need to send their emissary to the lowly EO to try to influence his decisions. This clearly shows where power lies in India. Our elected politicians have no real powers to deliver their election commitments. Our democracy is thus being choked from within – by the unaccountable and ultra-powerful IAS.

The IAS is unfit for the task of taking India from the Third World to the First World. From my personal experience (and I continue to have good friends within the IAS), no IAS officer comes even remotely close to the competence of middle-level managers in the Australian government. If the pool of administrative leaders in India is so poor, how can India possibly succeed? We need to urgently broaden the talent pool for each job and ensure the right incentives and systems of accountability. The function of EO might have worked for the colonial British government but it simply can’t work in a modern democracy.

This hugely powerful Indian bureaucracy (of which I was once a member) contrasts with the situation in Victoria where the Premier (Chief Minister) of Victoria is the unquestionable boss. He appoints Secretaries, who then appoint other officers down the line. No one can tell the Premier that he can appoint officials only from a “shortlist” prepared by a petty bureaucrat. And if a Secretary doesn’t perform, he is fired without notice. The Premier is fully empowered to get the job done. The link between the voter, his taxes and the performance of the government is direct and unambiguous. No EO sits behind the scenes, stymying the elected executive.

The saving grace for India is that the PM does have a few powers to shop outside the IAS. The recent lateral entry program has been one such rare instance. Some people have questioned the Constitutional power of the PM to do so, but I believe the Constitution allows such limited powers.

The State governments, on the other hand, are in really bad shape. Their freedom to appoint outside the IAS is almost completely circumscribed. In particular, all important posts in the states have been captured by the IAS through IAS cadre rules. These include senior positions in local government bodies, such as municipal corporations. While the IAS system doesn’t, of course, control precisely who is appointed, it ensures that only one of them can hold these posts. In that sense, the Chief Ministers of the States have even less flexibility than the PM.

As a result, IAS officers are able to thumb their nose at State governments. They can go to the EO and get themselves posted to another state or to the Government of India or even abroad. Everything depends on the officer’s relationship with the EO and Cabinet Secretary. That’s why the IAS is such a cosy and exclusive club.

It is high time to bring this dysfunctional and undemocratic system to an end. Within two years the BJP government will have the opportunity to amend the Constitution. IAS is the first thing that must go.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.


Very well said but It's a cycle really.

I wouldn't go the distance of saying that the bureaucracy is powerful than the polity. It is the nature of bureaucracy that gives it the veneer of permanence, the unending din in the background. It is not elected. It has no term. Every year a batch of officers enters the machine (recruitment and a batch of officers is excreted (retirement). Between these two timestamps, the bureaucracy, more or less, works as one single brain and body. This mechanical arrangement gives it an image of timelessness. But it is important to remember, the greatest strength of the bureaucracy, its zillion rules and sub rules which is the central nervous system, is also its weakness. It is subservient to the rules. The rules make them and can be used by a shrewd mind to break them. I'm sure this is well known in political circles.

I might as well look at it another way. The gentle balance that the polity, the judiciary and the bureaucracy have maintained with each other for 70 long years is quite appreciable. They've functioned as counter-balances in a cycle. The judiciary and bureaucracy were all-too-meek in the first few decades. In times when the polity over-stepped its mandate, the judiciary came in. When the bureaucracy failed in its duties, the polity and judiciary pulled it up. The fear of a coup in the first two decades made the armed forces so anemic, they've just started to regain their mojo.

So, what we are seeing presently is perhaps only a phase in the cycle. The system is built for auto-course-correct. It takes time. But it will.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 26 Jun 2019 12:39

plushyphen wrote:The rules make them and can be used by a shrewd mind to break them. I'm sure this is well known in political circles.

True. The problem is that many politicans are not really smart when it comes to understanding the various law points, or going through the small prints in various orders etc. Things are bad especially if the elected representative is a semi-literate or illiterate. In such a case the IAS,IPS fellows would be able to run their own fiefdom. But things dramatically change if the elected representative is smart. The first elected Chief Minister of Kerala was getting royally mis-led by the police officials (he was clueless on how the police worked), and his state government was about to be thrown out by bandit-ji. The elected party then brought in a famouse judge turned politician as the Home Minister so that things could be improved a little. By then it was too late. There was another smart politican who solely focused on "revenue department" only. His opinion was that know the revenue rules & regulations and have the treasury keys is what is more important than getting salutes from every police man they meet ;).

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 26 Jun 2019 13:07

What is the biggest change in IAS policy that would make them more answerable and efficient. I don't see Babu lobby improving in efficiency beyond what general efficiency of India is.
Other than hiring-firing, what else is the way out to improve babudom without making them susceptible to Politicians ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby plushyphen » 26 Jun 2019 13:14

Sachin wrote:
plushyphen wrote:The rules make them and can be used by a shrewd mind to break them. I'm sure this is well known in political circles.

True. The problem is that many politicans are not really smart when it comes to understanding the various law points, or going through the small prints in various orders etc. Things are bad especially if the elected representative is a semi-literate or illiterate. In such a case the IAS,IPS fellows would be able to run their own fiefdom. But things dramatically change if the elected representative is smart. The first elected Chief Minister of Kerala was getting royally mis-led by the police officials (he was clueless on how the police worked), and his state government was about to be thrown out by bandit-ji. The elected party then brought in a famouse judge turned politician as the Home Minister so that things could be improved a little. By then it was too late. There was another smart politican who solely focused on "revenue department" only. His opinion was that know the revenue rules & regulations and have the treasury keys is what is more important than getting salutes from every police man they meet ;).


I would agree to most of what you said.
This works well even in the larger context of appointments like Sreedharan for Metro, Jaishankar for MEA, the umpteen scientists who head ISRO, Rathore for Sports. They know the way bolts are tightened, identify points where oil leaks and know that high beam is not to be used in the city. They're not air-dropped. They're a part of the grass roots.

Even more reason for Indian specialist services like the railways, posts, revenue, police, corporate law to have their own heads instead of the Aye Yay Yes reporting to the respective ministers.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshhan » 26 Jun 2019 13:22

Sachin wrote:
darshhan wrote:Vikas, AS and JPN look after the bigger picture. For WB BJP has already deputed a master tactician( Kailash Vijaywargia). During LS elections even Sunil Deodhar(of Tripura fame) was deputed to WB. Plus they have Mukul Roy who defected from TMC. In nutshell for Bengal they have a pretty decent team.

I don't know such a team has been made ready for KL & TN. I get a feeling that after getting multiple negative feedback on KL's BJP machinery, A.Shah and J.Nadda may first focus on states like WB where they have a better chance of winning. KL can remain like the Gaulish Village in Astreix.


Sachin, Two things about BJP's recent success and current focus on WB compared to Kerala and TN. First is the wholesale nature of atrocties inflicted by Jihadis on the hapless Hindu population in Bengal. Second is blatent appeasement and support to these jihadis by an extremely partisan and immature CM and her administration. Hence in large part current resistance situation was created by Jihadis and current ruling dispensation themselves.

Both these attributes are not present atleast in the same measure in Kerala. The anti hindu factions( jihadis, communists, misionaries etc) are not that violent and neither the ruling dispensations both udf and cpm as crude as Mamta didi. Whatever anti hindu violence is taking place is limited to certain pockets. For example killings of RSS functionaries by communists in Kannur. The oppression is much more subtle and designed to eventually make hindus extinct. In such it is much more sinister than what is happening in West Bengal.

But since critical thinking skills are not really strong point of Indian people as a consequence of incomplete and shoddy education system, the Breaking India Forces brigade is getting a free ride. This gets compounded in states such as Kerala because of the non Hindu population percentage and the resulting precarious demographic balance.

As of now our best hope is that anti Hindu and Breaking India Forces and their supporters in administration resort to the same crude tactics which are being applied in WB both in policy formulation as well as street behaviour. This is the quickest way to wake up the Hindu population anywhere in this country. Look what Sabrimala agitation did to communists. I am pretty sure their downfall has already started. Sure the only so called Hindu party BJP(actually centrist now) couldn't benefit from LDF decline this time, but sooner or later it will replace communists.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby gauravsh » 26 Jun 2019 13:31

Vikas wrote:What is the biggest change in IAS policy that would make them more answerable and efficient. I don't see Babu lobby improving in efficiency beyond what general efficiency of India is.
Other than hiring-firing, what else is the way out to improve babudom without making them susceptible to Politicians ?

Make them stick to their allocated department for the rest of their career. I have never seen any benefit of shifting a babu from one ministry to another if he doesn't performs.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 26 Jun 2019 14:17

plushyphen wrote:Even more reason for Indian specialist services like the railways, posts, revenue, police, corporate law to have their own heads instead of the Aye Yay Yes reporting to the respective ministers.

For all the bolded services, we generally have specific cadres (like IAS; but with good specialisation in the domain). For example there is an Indian Railway Service, with many of them being railway experts. The police is generally headed by an IPS chap; who pretty much would have been wearing khakhi for 25+ years plus. But at a state level it is in the "revenue" area, and the general babu-dom which IAS folks get undue weighatge. Even from British times a District Collector (of taxes) was notionally superior to the Dist. Supdt. of Police.

The IAS is become more of an "umbrella service" with them getting posted in pretty much every government department, and perhaps they would be the most "generalists" in the entire scheme of things. By their nature of work, they also generally gain maximum access to the elected representatives at every level. Perhaps this could be one area where there has to be more specialisation.

darshhan wrote:The anti hindu factions( jihadis, communists, misionaries etc) are not that violent and neither the ruling dispensations both udf and cpm as crude as Mamta didi. Whatever anti hindu violence is taking place is limited to certain pockets. For example killings of RSS functionaries by communists in Kannur.
....
This is the quickest way to wake up the Hindu population anywhere in this country. Look what Sabrimala agitation did to communists.

I agree with your point. In fact Sabari Mala incident perhaps would be the only event in recent history where an elected state government actually became a dictatorship and then reaked vengeance on the Hindu community. Sure Hindus realised the threat, and there were counter actions too. As you rightly said, WB has actually tipped over a point (unlike KL). The CM there is more crazy, and violence has also hit the streets. In KL the "secular forces" :roll: still have time to do a course correction and perhaps use more subtle ways to cow down the Hindu community. The commies are already on a U turn mode - Women's entry in Sabarimala had negative impact on party sympathisers, election results: CPI(M)

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshhan » 26 Jun 2019 16:38

Vikas wrote:What is the biggest change in IAS policy that would make them more answerable and efficient. I don't see Babu lobby improving in efficiency beyond what general efficiency of India is.
Other than hiring-firing, what else is the way out to improve babudom without making them susceptible to Politicians ?


Depends upon the leadership of the day and the political vision laid out by them. The same abused IAS has delivered on NAMO's flagship programs like jan dhan, ujjwala, housing, toilets,Rs 6000/- for farmers etc. Infact if you analyse carefully it is because of successful delivery of these programs that Namo got reelected.

But then same IAS was scamming and looting during UPA regime. So what gives? Again the older bureaucrats who were close to congress and were impossible to reform are now giving way to younger lot which is more focussed and committed towards their jobs. At district level they are still the best entity for delivering services.

The problem arises when without any specialization effort they are allocated posts in ministries which require specialization for eg. Defence/transport/urban infra etc. This is where lateral entry of specialists is needed.

This analysis of mine is purely from a governance and administration point of view. From a civilizational perspective, they continue to be anti Hindu like other govt agencies and departments. But even in this context compared to police, IAS can still be reformed more easily as they are much lesser in numbers.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 26 Jun 2019 17:10

PMO India Verified account@PMOIndia
Follow Follow @PMOIndia
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The lynching in Jharkhand has pained me. It has saddened others too.

But, some people in the Rajya Sabha are calling Jharkhand a hub of lynching. Is this fair? Why are they insulting a state.

None of us have the right to insult the state of Jharkhand: PM @narendramodi


Which lynching is he talking about?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Jun 2019 17:13

ramana wrote:
vijayk wrote:https://www.opindia.com/2019/06/rahul-gandhi-planning-a-nation-wide-stir-over-evm-hacking-may-boycott-assembly-polls-report/

Pappu wants evm stir. Will boycott assembly elections


After EC has validated the EVMs with the VVPATs basically pappu is rejecting the peopl's mandate. This will backfire on him quite badly.
Having said that the EC and GOI need to take stern action on those who question the election process as undermining democracy.

Absolutely!

He is a true pappu and does not understand when to stop.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Jun 2019 18:05

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1143854012455768066
@5Forty3

The reason why #JaiShriRam is causing so much of heart burn among Left-Libbers is that even former Communist indoctrinated Bengali Hindus have begun to chant it with vengeance to rediscover their roots!

Welcome to the post-Left-Secular society of India!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 27 Jun 2019 05:33

The US is probing pressure points and it may be signalling which way it is going to go in putting pressure on India to yield on key trade and security issues.


This is a favourite, often played and well used ploy of the foggy bottom bunch of liberandus and the defacto deep state.


If the US has become so narrowly transactionally focussed on all aspects its relations with other countries, it may be wise for India to stand her ground as far as India's supreme national interest(s) are concerned.

expect the usual lootyens suspects on DDM and SM who survive only by paying obeisance to the US deep state to start hyperventilating on the "US concerns", all on prime time tv and the pakis to pitch in gleefully.



Let's stand up together for religious freedom, says Mike Pompeo days after US releases report on mob attacks in India



Let's stand up together for religious freedom, says Mike Pompeo days after US releases report on mob attacks in India


Jun 26, 2019.



New Delhi: Asserting that the world is worse off when religious rights are compromised, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo on Wednesday called for speaking "strongly" in favour of religious freedom, days after the US alleged that mob attacks by violent extremist Hindu groups against minority communities, particularly Muslims, continued in India in 2018.

Last week, the US state department, in its annual 2018 International Religious Freedom Report, had alleged that "mob attacks by violent extremist Hindu groups against minority communities, particularly Muslims, continued in India in 2018, amid rumours that victims had traded or killed cows for beef", evoking a sharp reaction from the ruling BJP which said it shows a clear bias against the Narendra Modi government.

"India is the birthplace of four major world religions. Let's stand up together for religious freedom for all. Let's speak out strongly together in favour of those rights for whenever we do compromise those rights, the world is worse off," Pompeo said in his 'India policy speech' at the India International Centre in New delhi.

Apart from referring to violence against minorities, the US report, released on 21 June, also alleged that some senior leaders of the BJP "made inflammatory speeches against minority communities".

Reacting sharply to the report, BJP media head and Rajya Sabha MP Anil Baluni in a statement said, "The basic presumption in this report that there is some grand design behind anti-minority violence is simply false. On the contrary, in most of such cases, these instances are carried out as a result of local disputes and by (people with) criminal mindsets."

Whenever needed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders have strongly deplored violence against minorities and weaker sections of the society, he added.


Earlier, Pompeo, who is in New Delhi on a two-day visit, called on Modi and held comprehensive talks with his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar.


Lets stand up together for religious freedom, says Mike Pompeo days after US releases report on mob attacks in India

US secretary of state Mike Pompeo on Wednesday. Twitter/@ANI

In his brief speech lasting nearly 15 minutes, Pompeo also said the US is pleased to see the UN designating Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar a global terrorist.

Recently, India voted against a Palestinian NGO that supported terrorism at the UN and showed rewarding terrorism is wrong, he said.

"India is more and more standing up on world stage and the US welcomes its assertiveness," Pompeo said.

He hailed Modi and President Donald Trump, saying they are leaders who aren't scared to take risks and the two countries are poised to do "incredible things together".

"We start from a good place we are blessed that India-US friendship is rooted in strong foundation. Rule of law, respect for human dignity, importance of civil society — these ideals are believed in by both Indians and Americans," he said, adding though the two nations are 10,000 miles away but as two democracies they are "very close" and ought to be even closer.

Talking about the meetings he had with the Indian leadership, he said the talks were not just about bilateral ties, but a lot of time was spent on important topics.

"There is a misconception that our countries cannot be full partners but that is not true look what already happened. You have made hard choices to cut off oil imports from Iran. You have gone away from purchasing Venezuelan oil. Those decisions weren't without cost. We are doing everything we can to ensure you have crude imports.We appreciate your efforts in pushing these regimes to behave like normal countries," Pompeo said.

"We shouldn't see each other only through bilateral lens. We should see each other for what we are, great democracies, good friends," he added.

Today, 60 percent of global maritime trade transits through India-Pacific, in past weeks Islamic Republic of Iran has attacked tankers from Japan, Norway, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates, he said.

Noting that for the first time in South China Sea, India and the US were able to reinforce their partnership and the freedom of navigation throughout international waterways, he also wondered,"Can America and India strategise more comprehensively on how to safeguard free and open seaways, all throughout the world. Can we work together towards cleaner energy."

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 27 Jun 2019 05:49


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 27 Jun 2019 05:57

Vikas wrote:What is the biggest change in IAS policy that would make them more answerable and efficient. I don't see Babu lobby improving in efficiency beyond what general efficiency of India is.
Other than hiring-firing, what else is the way out to improve babudom without making them susceptible to Politicians ?



One fatal flaw is assigning them to State cadre when they belong to All India Services.
This makes them revert to States and under a differently thinking CM they become beholden to the state politicians. Typically first 8 to ten years spent in State to understand Administration. Then deputed to Center for 10 to 15 years and sent back. And then empaneled to serve in different ministries for rest of career. if not empaneled serve in State till retirement.
Problem comes when they get empaneled. Do they serve center or State?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 27 Jun 2019 06:36

India Speaks Daily on Modi: https://youtu.be/er8z-vhf5iY

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 27 Jun 2019 08:54

Minhaz Merchant Verified account @MinhazMerchant

Cong politician & close aide of Sonia Gandhi worried sick as #ED attaches properties worth Rs 9,778 crore belonging to fugitive #Sandesara family’s Sterling Biotech. ED, finally freed of its shackles in MoF, arrest #GaganDhawan, bagman of Cong politician




ED attaches properties of Rs 9,778 crore of Sterling Biotech




The ED said it had arrested four persons including a Delhi-based businessman-cum-middleman, Gagan Dhawan, Ex-Director of Andhra Bank Anup Garg, Director of SBL R.B. Dixit and Ranjeet Malik, an aide to Dhawan.

Fugitive businessman Hitesh Narender Bhai Patel was detained in Albania's capital Tirana on March 22 on the basis of a red corner notice (RCN) issued against him by the Interpol on March 11 following requests from the Indian authorities.

He is the brother-in-law of the of Gujarat-based businessmen Chetan Jayantilal Sandesara and Nitin Jayantilal Sandesara.

The ED said the accused have incorporated more than 100 entities in various countries including the UAE, the US, the UK, British Virgin Island, Mauritius, Barbados and Nigeria.

Their main entities outside India include Richmond Overseas, Sunshine Trust Corp, SEEPCO BVI, SEEPCO Nigeria and Atlantic Blue Water Services.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 27 Jun 2019 10:12

^ How many moneybags did congress raise. There is no end to people who were/are holders of Money for congress but acting as Businesses men. Every Rags to riches story in personal and professional life must be investigated with prejudice.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby aylamrin » 27 Jun 2019 10:55

chetak wrote:Minhaz Merchant Verified account @MinhazMerchant

Cong politician & close aide of Sonia Gandhi worried sick as #ED attaches properties worth Rs 9,778 crore belonging to fugitive #Sandesara family’s Sterling Biotech. ED, finally freed of its shackles in MoF, arrest #GaganDhawan, bagman of Cong politician




ED attaches properties of Rs 9,778 crore of Sterling Biotech




The ED said it had arrested four persons including a Delhi-based businessman-cum-middleman, Gagan Dhawan, Ex-Director of Andhra Bank Anup Garg, Director of SBL R.B. Dixit and Ranjeet Malik, an aide to Dhawan.

Fugitive businessman Hitesh Narender Bhai Patel was detained in Albania's capital Tirana on March 22 on the basis of a red corner notice (RCN) issued against him by the Interpol on March 11 following requests from the Indian authorities.

He is the brother-in-law of the of Gujarat-based businessmen Chetan Jayantilal Sandesara and Nitin Jayantilal Sandesara.

The ED said the accused have incorporated more than 100 entities in various countries including the UAE, the US, the UK, British Virgin Island, Mauritius, Barbados and Nigeria.

Their main entities outside India include Richmond Overseas, Sunshine Trust Corp, SEEPCO BVI, SEEPCO Nigeria and Atlantic Blue Water Services.


It's AP, right?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 27 Jun 2019 11:09

Vikas wrote:^ How many moneybags did congress raise. There is no end to people who were/are holders of Money for congress but acting as Businesses men. Every Rags to riches story in personal and professional life must be investigated with prejudice.


some years ago, I met a gujju business women while doing some consultancy work in their factory and she told me that political parties have warehouses of cash which are unobtrusively guarded 24x7.


they all have a widespread collection strategy so it stands to reason that they also must have places to store the loot.


many companies are used to park funds that can be liquated in quick time.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby plushyphen » 27 Jun 2019 11:51

ramana wrote:
Vikas wrote:What is the biggest change in IAS policy that would make them more answerable and efficient. I don't see Babu lobby improving in efficiency beyond what general efficiency of India is.
Other than hiring-firing, what else is the way out to improve babudom without making them susceptible to Politicians ?



One fatal flaw is assigning them to State cadre when they belong to All India Services.
This makes them revert to States and under a differently thinking CM they become beholden to the state politicians. Typically first 8 to ten years spent in State to understand Administration. Then deputed to Center for 10 to 15 years and sent back. And then empaneled to serve in different ministries for rest of career. if not empaneled serve in State till retirement.
Problem comes when they get empaneled. Do they serve center or State?


We are probably aiming our guns at the very reason why the AS were hailed as the steel frame of the country by LBS.
The flow of these senior officers between the centre and the states is one of the pillars of India's federal structure. It is one of the many centripetal forces working in keeping the strong states (centrifugal forces) in balance with the Centre.

In the early years of independence, the question of, are you serving centre or state was one more of procedure than of substance. The problems of slow growth, malnutrition, illiteracy, population control affected all the states invariably. So the question wasn't a philosophical one. Over time, with regional parties got powerful, growth rates diverged and regional identities strengthened, there was a need to customize priorities between centre and state. Notwithstanding this, I still believe, considering how big and different each state/region of our country is, state cadres and central empanelment provides just the right amount of local and federal experience to officers.

What should definitely be improved is the archaic system of performance appraisal and mostly-compulsory promotion. India needs to learn from its big northern neighbour how they have exploited technology to do away with performance appraisal based on gut-feelings, mood-swings and boot-licks. The Revenue Administration of RoC has recently introduced a futuristic and holistic performance appraisal system that allows only the best to go up the ladder. And they have the largest Revenue Admin in the world, comprising of about a million people. India has about one-eighth of that. Being a highly optimistic man, I reckon we're atleast a decade away.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 27 Jun 2019 12:40

darshhan wrote:The problem arises when without any specialization effort they are allocated posts in ministries which require specialization for eg. Defence/transport/urban infra etc. This is where lateral entry of specialists is needed.

IAS perhaps would be the most "generalised trade" in civil services today. An IAS chap can start as a Sub-Collector/ADM in a district, then become a Commissioner in Excise, then from there move to Revenue department, and in some cases even head State Road Transport Corporation Boards :). So they are like moved around any government department, which needs to be monitored by the state government. The IPS also gets moved around, but generally it would be between uniformed departments (like Police & its multiple wings, RTO, Excise/PEW etc.). What we must also understand that there are actually "specialists" in each of these department who generally are real experts in their domain (like a Tehsildar in the revenue department, Sub-Inspectors & Inspectors in police etc.). But these "specialists" generally report into a "generalist".

But even in this context compared to police, IAS can still be reformed more easily as they are much lesser in numbers.

Police is actually easier to reform, than any other department. Even though in large numbers; they are also the group of government employees who still have very strict disciplinary rules and also are not unionised. From what I have observed of the police in last 18+ years; most of the constabulary & perhaps a higher number of state level officers are not really in the force because they love the job. For a 10th standard pass, with a decent level of physical fitness; police is the only job which gives them authority (and fear & respect) & job security. So these folks are very scared of getting punishment, especially of reduction in rank & pay cuts and dread the situation of losing their job. That is why many of them can be manipulated to do any nasty job. So if IPS folks can be made to change; they can easily make their juniors change as well.

Karthik S wrote:Which lynching is he talking about?

An allegied thief from the peaceful community who was caught and trashed by villagers, who later succumbed to his injuries. Now nobody is focusing on the theft part, but crying that they made the thief chant "Jai Shri Ram".

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A Nandy » 27 Jun 2019 14:11

https://rightlog.in/2019/06/modi-govern ... spaper-01/

Modi govt stops advertising in The Times Group, The Hindu and The Telegraph newspaper


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