2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 16 Sep 2019 01:57

darshan wrote:
Sachin wrote:.......

You mentioned seeing lines for PUC. However, this is not the first time event at least in Gujarat. So if they translated in something meaningful, then why are we here back happy about non first time event. Why did it not translate into a next step last time people lined up for it?


The last part is because of the loopholes that still exist, a few Sachin has mentioned (like states asking the police in their jurisdiction to go slow) and few missed.

A central ticket processing center is just a first step. The violation/noncompliance information has to reach here. When a police personnel is detecting violation, it must have a speed gun reading/image capture of signal jump etc but that alone is not sufficient. It still depends on the police personnel's' discretion. Only when the police personnel decides to pursue the violation, it will reach the central processing center. Many times the personnel will decide not to pursue - either for bribe or simply to avoid trouble based on drivers gender, ethnicity, religion etc. Hence automated violation detection via unmanned speed gun, traffic cam fixed next to road etc are only long term solution (This unmanned detection infra would face sabotage, so need to be hardened with accountability established)

Also, issuing ticket is one thing but actually collecting the fine is a completely different manner. Most of the city based commercial vehicles have multiple traffic tickets against their name. When a police personnel catch them, instead of paying the hefty fine amount, they simply offer a small bribe and continue as usual. Hence a solution ensuring the inability to escape the fine is also required.

Basically, to have compliance on the road, the below 4 issues need to be taken care of:

a. Correct and complete/unbiased (via unmanned speed gun, traffic cam etc) detection of non-compliance
b. tackle corruption at source i.e detection point via automated non-contact ticketing
c. unavoidable fine (automated deduction from driver's bank account after a period)
d. tackle corruption at target i.e. collection point via direct deduction from bank account etc

We miss any one step in the above 4 and there won't be any long term change.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby VinodTK » 16 Sep 2019 05:18

52 years on, still no sign of national defence university
NEW DELHI: Fifty-two years after it was first mooted, and over six years after its foundation stone was laid, the Indian National Defence University (INDU) is still missing in action due to politico-bureaucratic apathy and wrangling.

Sources said there has been hardly any progress since the draft INDU or Indian Defence University Bill was submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office and cabinet secretariat in December 2017 after protracted and contentious inter-ministerial consultations. “The bill will have to be cleared by the cabinet and Parliament for the INDU to be eventually set up,” said a source.

The country certainly needs a ‘world-class’ INDU to inject some much-needed strategic culture in governance as well as encourage robust cross-linkages between the executive and academia. Almost all major countries, from the US to China, have national defence varsities to develop national security leaders as well as undertake long-term strategic studies and threat assessments.

“China strategically thinks at least 50 years ahead. In India, we at best stumble from election to election. After approving the post of the CDS (chief of defence staff), the government should now push for the defence varsity. India suffers from a lack of integrated, multi-dimensional approach to shape long-term strategic thought, culture and actions,” said a top defence official, who did not want to be named.

Experts said India, apart from the requisite economic growth and systematic building of military capabilities, also requires to educate its political leaders, bureaucrats and military brass in strategic thinking and security issues, both external and internal, if it aspires to become a superpower. “We need politico-military thinkers and analysts, who do not live in silos, to advise the country’s top political leadership on long-term strategic challenges,” said an expert.

There was some rejoicing when the foundation stone of INDU was laid in May 2013 with much fanfare at Binola, near Manesar in Gurgaon district of Haryana, by the then PM Manmohan Singh. The varsity was supposed to come up, at a preliminary cost of Rs 395 crore, on 202 acres.

A little infrastructure development on the acquired land began in December 2015, which was followed by the government putting the draft INDU bill online for public consultations in August 2016. “But not much happened after that. The estimated initial cost stands at well over Rs 2,000 crore now,” said a source.
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Mort Walker
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Mort Walker » 16 Sep 2019 05:19

Suraj wrote:
darshhan wrote:Guptaji, Pls spare us. If there is one thing we do not want more of, it is cops. Ok increase in specialized positions such as forensics/investigations/swat etc is most welcome but that is it.

Also calculating ratio of policemen to per thousand people is a purely western construct. Is of very little use to us.

An effective police force and a functioning law and order system are a societal requirement and not a 'western construct'. A_Gupta is right.


I disagree. What you're suggesting is good in theory.

The current structure of the IPS is inherently corrupt and it is one of the reasons why J&K was brought in as a UT because that state's police are now part of the central Home Ministry. The IPS is a leftover idea from the colonial era which has been shoe-horned for modern India. Right now, police leadership in any state is through director general, commissioners, assistant commissioners, deputy commissioners, and superintendents of police. Then add the various inspectors, sub-inspectors and constabularies. There is way too much political interference by elected state officials. Before increasing police size in India, the IPS needs to be overhauled where political influence becomes significantly diluted. A system of checks and balances must be in place to prevent police corruption which weighs heavy on the general public.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 16 Sep 2019 07:24

52 years on, still no sign of national defence university.

Fifty-two years after it was first mooted, and over six years after its foundation stone was laid, the Indian National Defence University (INDU) is still missing in action due to politico-bureaucratic apathy and wrangling.

Sources said there has been hardly any progress since the draft INDU or Indian Defence University Bill was submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office
and cabinet secretariat in December 2017 after protracted and contentious inter-ministerial consultations. “The bill will have to be cleared by the cabinet and Parliament for the INDU to be eventually set up,” said a source.

Image

The country certainly needs a ‘world-class’ INDU to inject some much-needed strategic culture in governance as well as encourage robust cross-linkages between the executive and academia. Almost all major countries, from the US to China, have national defence varsities to develop national security leaders as well as undertake long-term strategic studies and threat assessments.

“China strategically thinks at least 50 years ahead. In India, we at best stumble from election to election. After approving the 9/15/2019 52 years on, post of the CDS (chief of defence staff), the government should now push for the defence varsity. India suffers from a lack of integrated, multi-dimensional approach to shape long-term strategic thought, culture and actions,” said a top defence official, who did not want to be named.

Experts said India, apart from the requisite economic growth and systematic building of military capabilities, also requires to educate its political leaders, bureaucrats and military brass in strategic thinking and security issues, both external and internal, if it aspires to become a superpower. “We need politico-military thinkers and analysts, who do not live in silos, to advise the country’s top political leadership on long-term strategic challenges,” said an expert.

There was some rejoicing when the foundation stone of INDU was laid in May 2013 with much fanfare at Binola, near Manesar in Gurgaon district of Haryana, by the then PM Manmohan Singh. The varsity was supposed to come up, at a preliminary cost of Rs 395 crore, on 202 acres.

A little infrastructure development on the acquired land began in December 2015, which was followed by the government putting the draft INDU bill online for public consultations in August 2016. “But not much happened after that. The estimated initial cost stands at well over Rs 2,000 crore now,” said a source.

The fully-autonomous INDU was supposed to be headed by a three-star general, first from the Army and then from the IAF and Navy in turns, with the President as the visitor and defence minister as the chancellor.

With 66% of students drawn from the armed forces and the rest from other government agencies, police and civilians, the varsity was to initially set up four new institutions — School of National Security Studies, School of Defence Technology, School of Defence Management and Centre for Distance and Open Learning — in the main campus.

It was also planned that the existing National Defence College (Delhi), College of Defence Management (Secunderabad), Defence Services Staff College (Wellington) and National Defence Academy (Khadakwasla) would be affiliated to it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KJo » 16 Sep 2019 07:50

Name the university after Chanakya. :twisted:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 16 Sep 2019 12:18

Mort Walker wrote:
Suraj wrote:An effective police force and a functioning law and order system are a societal requirement and not a 'western construct'. A_Gupta is right.


I disagree. What you're suggesting is good in theory.

The current structure of the IPS is inherently corrupt and it is one of the reasons why J&K was brought in as a UT because that state's police are now part of the central Home Ministry. The IPS is a leftover idea from the colonial era which has been shoe-horned for modern India. Right now, police leadership in any state is through director general, commissioners, assistant commissioners, deputy commissioners, and superintendents of police. Then add the various inspectors, sub-inspectors and constabularies. There is way too much political interference by elected state officials. Before increasing police size in India, the IPS needs to be overhauled where political influence becomes significantly diluted. A system of checks and balances must be in place to prevent police corruption which weighs heavy on the general public.



This is one of the main drivers for the removal of art 370. the pakis were exercising control over much of the state through corrupt cops and politicos who were feeding the jehadis with real time intel to actively counter the IA during on going as well as operations in the pipeline.

trump will leave aghanistan, and he will leave it in a mess.

The attentions of the jehadis will shift towards cashmere and the Indian hinterland.

the j&k cops are corrupt, jehadi and separatist influenced and the local sunni politicos have had too free a run for decades and were becoming bolder by the day thinking that the GoI will do nothing and the Indian SC will protect them in the name of secularism.

Direct control of the law and order machinery in j&k by the center and the marginalizing of all jehadi elements, control over central funds, its deployment and equitable distribution to jammu and ladakh will cool a lot of jehadi ardor.

It's very essential to remove security for those pushing the separatist mantra. Let them survive on their own.

dulat like officers, where ever they may be should be ruthlessly weeded out and kicked out forthwith

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 16 Sep 2019 13:19

^^ Everyone in J&K is maha corrupt and operate at a different level of corruption. Police force is just one pillar of ecosystem which thrives on corruption.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 16 Sep 2019 15:04

Vikas wrote:^^ Everyone in J&K is maha corrupt and operate at a different level of corruption. Police force is just one pillar of ecosystem which thrives on corruption.



it reached new levels when mehbooba mufti became cm.

she foolishly imagined that she was in the driver's seat and liberation was just around the corner.

visions of the nobel would have been dancing about in her vacuous and vicious paki jehadi head

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 16 Sep 2019 15:15

When Yogi Adityanath stepped in to stop Samsung from leaving UP
UP CM Yogi Adityanath says that there is a road map set for the development of the state, and the state government is working towards implementing those targets.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... Cs9xO.html

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 16 Sep 2019 17:59

irony much

Image

Rsatchi
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 16 Sep 2019 18:18

Vips wrote:52 years on, still no sign of national defence university.

Fifty-two years after it was first mooted, and over six years after its foundation stone was laid, the Indian National Defence University (INDU) is still missing in action due to politico-bureaucratic apathy and wrangling.

Sources said there has been hardly any progress since the draft INDU or Indian Defence University Bill was submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office
and cabinet secretariat in December 2017 after protracted and contentious inter-ministerial consultations. “The bill will have to be cleared by the cabinet and Parliament for the INDU to be eventually set up,” said a source.

Image

The country certainly needs a ‘world-class’ INDU to inject some much-needed strategic culture in governance as well as encourage robust cross-linkages between the executive and academia. Almost all major countries, from the US to China, have national defence varsities to develop national security leaders as well as undertake long-term strategic studies and threat assessments.

“China strategically thinks at least 50 years ahead. In India, we at best stumble from election to election. After approving the 9/15/2019 52 years on, post of the CDS (chief of defence staff), the government should now push for the defence varsity. India suffers from a lack of integrated, multi-dimensional approach to shape long-term strategic thought, culture and actions,” said a top defence official, who did not want to be named.

Experts said India, apart from the requisite economic growth and systematic building of military capabilities, also requires to educate its political leaders, bureaucrats and military brass in strategic thinking and security issues, both external and internal, if it aspires to become a superpower. “We need politico-military thinkers and analysts, who do not live in silos, to advise the country’s top political leadership on long-term strategic challenges,” said an expert.

There was some rejoicing when the foundation stone of INDU was laid in May 2013 with much fanfare at Binola, near Manesar in Gurgaon district of Haryana, by the then PM Manmohan Singh. The varsity was supposed to come up, at a preliminary cost of Rs 395 crore, on 202 acres.

A little infrastructure development on the acquired land began in December 2015, which was followed by the government putting the draft INDU bill online for public consultations in August 2016. “But not much happened after that. The estimated initial cost stands at well over Rs 2,000 crore now,” said a source.

The fully-autonomous INDU was supposed to be headed by a three-star general, first from the Army and then from the IAF and Navy in turns, with the President as the visitor and defence minister as the chancellor.

With 66% of students drawn from the armed forces and the rest from other government agencies, police and civilians, the varsity was to initially set up four new institutions — School of National Security Studies, School of Defence Technology, School of Defence Management and Centre for Distance and Open Learning — in the main campus.

It was also planned that the existing National Defence College (Delhi), College of Defence Management (Secunderabad), Defence Services Staff College (Wellington) and National Defence Academy (Khadakwasla) would be affiliated to it.

With due respects Vipsji,
The present day Administrative Service has turned into the desi version of 'Burra Sahib/Gora Sahib'.
Them and the Lootyens crowd think that they have replaced the Britshits and they know what is better for the country.
Please see the reasons quoted by the Babus for shit Shimla Pact( Don't want another Versailles and what not)
You are suggesting a 2/3 rds seats to the military cadets.
a. will the Babus allow it. :roll:
b.even if allowed what purpose will it serve when the time comes they ignore the military input and barter away the gains in the name of peace with an enemy who is hell-bent on dismembering the nation.(look at '47, '65, '71 dhokas). :evil:
Unless and until the Babus understand that they are not the ruling elite and that they don't belong to a exclusive club ( a la some Royal College type) and that they have not passed a exam with an 'Unobtainium Degree' :rotfl: the trend will prevail.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 16 Sep 2019 18:31

Why China fears India’s move on Article 370



Why China fears India’s move on Article 370

Arvind Kumar
September 14, 2019,

India’s action of making Article 370 toothless has set the alarm bells ringing in the corridors of power in China and has elicited strong reactions from them. It is wrong to interpret their reaction merely as a friendly gesture towards Pakistan. Rather, it is the result of the Chinese leadership feeling threatened about their stranglehold over power. In their view, India’s move is a step towards a war against them by a coalition consisting of India, the United States, and other countries.

The Chinese government views the world as a stage for its exclusive use and every other country except Pakistan as an adversary. Even in the case of Pakistan, it is not treated as an ally or a friend but as a pawn that will advance the Chinese government’s interests. Pakistan has willingly become part of this abusive relationship as it is driven by the singular goal of opposing India. It is very likely that China has even forced Pakistan to share the F-16s in its possession and has replicated them. Thus, Pakistan may actually be telling the truth when it claims that it did not use any F-16 aircraft against India in February 2019 when it brought down an Indian plane in a dogfight. That aircraft used by Pakistan was probably a copy of an F-16 made by China.

In recent years, China has pursued a policy of making its presence and influence felt all around the world and it has done this in an aggressive and deceptive manner. For example, it financed and built Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, and Sri Lanka rapidly found itself in debt that could not be redeemed and was forced to cede control of the port to China. This method of engineering a debt trap by both financing and building infrastructure projects around the world has become the standard operating procedure for China in its Belt and Road Initiative (earlier, One-Belt-One-Road, OBOR). Such an aggressive and expansionist program to control and monopolise world trade is viewed dimly by America. In 2017, James Mattis, the then American Defense Secretary, stated that US did not agree with the idea of one country putting itself in a position of dictating one belt and one road as the world had many belts and many roads. He also opposed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that would connect the belt to Gwadar port, and highlighted the fact that the corridor passed through the disputed territory of Gilgit-Baltistan.

China’s presence in Gilgit-Baltistan has turned Jammu and Kashmir into an extremely important place from the geopolitical perspective. Stability in Kashmir valley makes China nervous as it is right next to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. On the other side of CPEC is Afghanistan where an American-led effort to strike a deal with the warring groups and install a government is underway. That effort could result in China being completely shut out of Afghanistan. A government in Afghanistan that does not kowtow to Beijing’s line combined with a stable Jammu and Kashmir would impede China’s hegemonic ambitions as the corridor would be in an extremely vulnerable position in case of a conflict involving India and other powers.

Mattis did not restrict his opposition to just BRI. He also targeted China in general when he stated, “[W]e should be under no illusions. There are areas where, also, strategically, we need to confront China where we think it’s unproductive—the direction they’re going in.” Apart from Mattis, American President Donald Trump too has expressed his displeasure with China. In particular, he has attacked China for manipulating its currency and is now engaged in a trade war against them. No one knows the details of China’s currency manipulation schemes as their policies are kept secret and they have created multiple currency systems without much transparency.

China’s goal of controlling the world’s trade has also manifested itself in other ways, chiefly in the form of their confrontational actions in the international waters of the South China Sea. Ships passing through the shipping lanes of the South China Sea account for more than one-third of the global maritime commerce and China seeks to hold this region hostage and dictate its terms to the world. It routinely intimidates ships belonging to other countries and has taken over and built illegal military bases on islands and reefs that do not belong to it. Steve Bannon, who worked on Donald Trump’s election campaign in 2016 and then worked in the White House, has advocated going in and dismantling these bases. Bannon has cited a ruling against China by an international tribunal to justify such an action.


The US is not alone in its concern over China’s attempt to take over the international waters of the South China Sea. Russia, Japan, South Korea and India share this concern along with other countries in the region such as Vietnam and Philippines. Russia has another reason for its unhappiness against China. Russia’s far east has been flooded with Chinese nationals and China is attempting to take over this region by altering its demographics.

China’s hostility towards other countries and its general lack of ability to realise that it is in the wrong can create conditions for a conflict. A single incident could trigger such a conflict with other powers, and China will be isolated in any such conflict with only Pakistan on its side.

Such a conflict will not occur and China’s expansionist ambitions will even be encouraged if the old guard in the US consisting of the proteges of pro-China leaders such as Henry Kissinger, George H.W. Bush, Zbignew Brzezinski, John McCain and John Kerry return to power in 2020. It is never easy to predict how the future will unfold, but there is an old Chinese curse wishing interesting times upon one’s opponents, and that curse may now be casting its spell on China, which should fear interesting times.

Arvind Kumar can be reached at arvindk@uchicago.edu

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 16 Sep 2019 23:41

Mort Walker wrote:
Suraj wrote:An effective police force and a functioning law and order system are a societal requirement and not a 'western construct'. A_Gupta is right.


I disagree. What you're suggesting is good in theory.

The current structure of the IPS is inherently corrupt and it is one of the reasons why J&K was brought in as a UT because that state's police are now part of the central Home Ministry.

You're not really disagreeing despite the statement - you're in fact agreeing with me :) The IPC and IPS are colonial entities, their complete replacement is something I seek. This is separate from the concurrent support for a larger police force, because the number of policemen/100k people in India is too small.

There's a repeated tendency to conflate the argument supporting a larger police force, with the assumption that I'm arguing for a larger IPS. That's not the case. The IPS just happens to be the current police service - a colonial entity poorly suited to modern administration. It's one of the several things that would benefit from wholesale replacement.

The topic would benefit from a separate thread focused on administrative structures for a modern nation, focused more on discussing administrative reorganization rather than the politics of it. E.g. in my opinion we need a national highway police that is not a state level entity. E.g. #2: we need a clearer legal framework for defining control over and prosecuting crimes that have inter-state footprint, i.e. a crime that's conducted across state boundaries gets automatically elevated to the control of the federal level police/investigation agency, rather than state level. E.g. #3: all major tier 1/2 metros (at least) need SWAT forces - not merely CT focused, but also capable of tackling urban economic mafias (e.g. sand, water, etc).

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 17 Sep 2019 00:35

chetak wrote:
Vikas wrote:^^ Everyone in J&K is maha corrupt and operate at a different level of corruption. Police force is just one pillar of ecosystem which thrives on corruption.



it reached new levels when mehbooba mufti became cm.

she foolishly imagined that she was in the driver's seat and liberation was just around the corner.

visions of the nobel would have been dancing about in her vacuous and vicious paki jehadi head

yeh nobel ka keeda kashmir main kafi purana hai..since the nehru days..vajapayee ji too was smitten by it.thanks to the torpedo of agra summit which saved the day and sonia madam who left things for rahul baba..we are in an age where we can think about it..
in early 90s when i was a primary school kid..at the home (not very far from lutyens) of a relative who was in bjp at a senior level..i had this discussion where i asked him why we are not asking for our part of kashmir..he said, congress doesnt want it but when we will be in power we will ..when vajpayee govt came, lahore summit happened i asked him the same question..he was saying it is the same desire like nehru to get a nobel peace prize...but he said..dont worry count on pakistan for it will not success...and thankfully the decade afterwards shut the doors for anything ..

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2019 02:23

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/c ... 2019-09-17
Congress leader DK Shivakumar sent to 14-day judicial custody

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2019 02:37

Another attempt to derail the RJB hearings now that is has been fast tracker and nearing the end.

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 9491412992
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

Here's the letter by UP #Sunni #Waqf Board chairman, imploring upon the mediation panel to resume talks, give mediation another chance for resolving #Ayodhya dispute.

The panel has subsequently written to the #Ayodhya Bench, seeking its views. #RamMandir #BabriMasjid

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 18 Sep 2019 02:53

pankajs wrote:https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/congress-leader-dk-shivakumar-sent-to-14-day-judicial-custody-1600153-2019-09-17
Congress leader DK Shivakumar sent to 14-day judicial custody



Enforcement Directorate is seeking to interview a Karnataka MLA as follow-up of this DKS custody.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2019 03:07

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 7656427530
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

#SupremeCourt has today ruled that schools, colleges & NGOs have to be treated as public authorities & will be answerable under the #RTI Act if they are majorly financed by Govt. Transparency in public dealings & probity in public life require this interpretation, said Court.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 18 Sep 2019 11:46

twitter

Mamata in trouble - Singhvi & Sibal lawyers
DKS in trouble - Singhvi
Chidu in trouble - Singhvi & Sibal
K Nath's nephew - Singhvi
HDK's govt in trouble - Singhvi
Lalu wants bail - Sibal
Rahul in trouble - Singhvi.
Sonia in trouble - Singhvi & Sibal
Vadra in trouble - Singhvi!



twitter

10 years back our company had engaged him for some case. He was charging Rs 27 lakhs per appearance. He had to be provided with two Merc cars to attend SC (one normal and another as standby). Don't know how much he charges now.

10:32 AM - 17 Sep 2019

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 18 Sep 2019 11:52

pankajs wrote:Another attempt to derail the RJB hearings now that is has been fast tracker and nearing the end.

Some secular (!?) news papers were saying that it was the Hindu side which wanted negotiations outside the court.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2019 11:57

Sachin wrote:
pankajs wrote:Another attempt to derail the RJB hearings now that is has been fast tracker and nearing the end.

Some secular (!?) news papers were saying that it was the Hindu side which wanted negotiations outside the court.

Why then are the Muslim side asking for "re" negotiations?

How sick can the sickular "newspaper" logic go? How low can they stoop in their service to the sickular narrative? It took me not more than 10 seconds to pose the above question to myself and come to the same conclusion as before.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 18 Sep 2019 12:26

they are trying to delay judgement until the change of command.

the next seems like a more likely bet for their side, seeing his "comments" on the "evidence" being produced by the anxious ones.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 18 Sep 2019 14:44

ANI Verified account @ANI

Delhi High Court transfers all cases pertaining to 2G spectrum case from District & Sessions Judge-cum-Special Judge, OP Saini to Special Judge Ajay Kumar Kuhar, as judge Saini is retiring at the end of this month.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 18 Sep 2019 17:49

chetak wrote:they are trying to delay judgement until the change of command.

the next seems like a more likely bet for their side, seeing his "comments" on the "evidence" being produced by the anxious ones.


The Muslim petitioners have realized that they are going to loose the case so to buy time and to make the most of a loosing situation they want to go back to mediation. The terms of deals that were almost finalized by the meditation group are an affront to the dharmic forces. Under the deal:
-Hindus/Government will provide funds (give jiziya) to the petitioners to finance a new mosque.
-Most important it will mean a recognition of existence and the legal status of all mosques existing as in 1947. Further meaning that the Kashi Vishwanath Temple/Masjid and the Gyanvyaapi mosque which are constructed by demolishing existing temples will remain as they are.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2019 18:56

This is what prompted the sickulars to try their latest gambit to derail ...
https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 0270828545
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

As the 25th day of arguments in the #Ayodhya case proceeds, #SupremeCourt seeks to ascertain time for wrapping up arguments in the case. It has asked lawyers for both sides to indicate a tentative time line, following which SC will take a call.

#RamMandir
#BabriMasjid

However, it seems the path is more of less set on a verdict in the near future.
https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 6068809728
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

#Ayodhya hearing timeline fixed by #SupremeCourt: Arguments likely to get over by Oct 18. #CJI says the Bench is hopeful let us all make joint efforts, says the #CJI.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 18 Sep 2019 19:18

After the verdict by the 5 judge bench in the Ram Mandir case is there any possibility of any appeal to a larger bench?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2019 19:39

Does Vaiko’s pro-Hindu speech signal shift in Dravidian strategy?
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 443281.ece

Doesn't change anything but does show a level of resistance forming on the round which did attract the attention of the Periyar" parties.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudeepj » 18 Sep 2019 21:41

Vips wrote:
chetak wrote:they are trying to delay judgement until the change of command.

the next seems like a more likely bet for their side, seeing his "comments" on the "evidence" being produced by the anxious ones.


The Muslim petitioners have realized that they are going to loose the case so to buy time and to make the most of a loosing situation they want to go back to mediation. The terms of deals that were almost finalized by the meditation group are an affront to the dharmic forces. Under the deal:
-Hindus/Government will provide funds (give jiziya) to the petitioners to finance a new mosque.
-Most important it will mean a recognition of existence and the legal status of all mosques existing as in 1947. Further meaning that the Kashi Vishwanath Temple/Masjid and the Gyanvyaapi mosque which are constructed by demolishing existing temples will remain as they are.


This is unacceptable given the behavior of the Muslim parties so far. If this was the offer in 1987, I would have taken it. Today, a lot of water has flown under the bridge. Tens of thousands of Hindus have lost their lives to Jihad. Today, for the same compromise, the Muslim side must offer back all prominent religious sites that were taken over. A beginning can be the Kashi Vishwanath and Gyanvyaapi but must also include others. This is a pretty good offer.. Ten, fifteen years from now, this offer would be outdated too.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 18 Sep 2019 21:46

pankajs wrote:Does Vaiko’s pro-Hindu speech signal shift in Dravidian strategy?
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 443281.ece

Doesn't change anything but does show a level of resistance forming on the round which did attract the attention of the Periyar" parties.


Not so sure about that, just few months back, this state gave clean sweep to DMK in GE. Keep you hopes low as far as TN is concerned.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Sep 2019 00:04

Vips wrote:After the verdict by the 5 judge bench in the Ram Mandir case is there any possibility of any appeal to a larger bench?


The govt may pass a law soon after

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 19 Sep 2019 00:41

Karthik S wrote:
pankajs wrote:Does Vaiko’s pro-Hindu speech signal shift in Dravidian strategy?
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 443281.ece

Doesn't change anything but does show a level of resistance forming on the round which did attract the attention of the Periyar" parties.


Not so sure about that, just few months back, this state gave clean sweep to DMK in GE. Keep you hopes low as far as TN is concerned.

What is interesting is that another bit of news happened today. Someone posted it on twitter so not sure of the authenticity.

The DMK withdrew their "Hindi imposition" agitation following Amit Shah's clarification. That is really curious for me. Amit Shah clarified that "every one must learn their mother tongue in their own state but make Hindi their 2nd language".

Anti-Hindi stance is one of DMK's major cards but they let it go so easily! To me it looks like the DMK took the first exit which is very unlike them. I think ground situation is changing slowly but surely on Hindu/Hindi coupled with the fact that 2G cases are about to be opened again making it an easy decision for Stalin.

I don't expect BJP to benefit from it immediately but if the periyar's are worried it could only mean progress and medium-term gains.
Last edited by pankajs on 19 Sep 2019 00:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 19 Sep 2019 00:49

chetak wrote:they are trying to delay judgement until the change of command.

the next seems like a more likely bet for their side, seeing his "comments" on the "evidence" being produced by the anxious ones.


The bad comments are from Chandrachud while next in command would be Bobde. Both are on the current bench that's hearing. Any skeleton in the closet for Bobde?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Sep 2019 01:46

Karthik S wrote:
pankajs wrote:Does Vaiko’s pro-Hindu speech signal shift in Dravidian strategy?
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 443281.ece

Doesn't change anything but does show a level of resistance forming on the round which did attract the attention of the Periyar" parties.


Not so sure about that, just few months back, this state gave clean sweep to DMK in GE. Keep you hopes low as far as TN is concerned.


this dravidian mindset has been inculcated and shoved into the thick skulls of these separatists. This is nothing but the very same sentiment being brought to the fore once again but this time by better organized BIF groupies.

look at the ease with they shut down the sterlite plant and that had BIF written all over it, just like the jallikattu and koodankulam agitations.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 19 Sep 2019 01:48

Vips wrote:After the verdict by the 5 judge bench in the Ram Mandir case is there any possibility of any appeal to a larger bench?



Yes people forget the joint session of the Parliament is the highest court.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 19 Sep 2019 02:07

chetak If you are on twitter send me a DM.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 19 Sep 2019 04:09

Picklu wrote:
chetak wrote:they are trying to delay judgement until the change of command.

the next seems like a more likely bet for their side, seeing his "comments" on the "evidence" being produced by the anxious ones.


The bad comments are from Chandrachud while next in command would be Bobde. Both are on the current bench that's hearing. Any skeleton in the closet for Bobde?


With nearly 3/4th majority in the parliament being enjoyed by BJP any judge trying to become Jaichand will be impeached. None of the judge would dare to become the first to be so impeached.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 19 Sep 2019 09:28

pankajs wrote:Anti-Hindi stance is one of DMK's major cards but they let it go so easily! To me it looks like the DMK took the first exit which is very unlike them.

What I could make out from some of the recent moves of the "secular" gang, is that they have run out of issues. The political opposition of today is totally defunct. Major "secular" leaders are all either in ED or CBI offices, or at the lawyer's office or at the courts. The BJP could easily pull one of the most controversial decisions; that is revoking of Art 370. And this is months after taking charge.

So the opposition parties, and the main stream media who supports them want some or the other issue to keep themselves afloat. The "Hindi imposition" charade to put A.Shah on the mat was one such move. The media could use that to get their sales & TRP rating going for some time. They now want such issues as even in Kashmir they have nothing suiting their agenda to report.

The MSM had euologised Mamta Banerjee when she said she would NOT meet Modi (a few months back during the election run up). Now the same person is seen visiting the PM, and the media is shamelessly reporting that too. She also wants to meet A.Shah the Home Minister whose helicopter was denied landing space in WB. Another worthless politican Pinarayi Vijayan of Kerala was hollering against A.Shah on 'Hindi imposition' and then sheepishly wanted central government help in getting a group of flats/aparments build illegally to be allowed to stay. Mind you, this is the same character who said he cut the call from a central minister because he spoke in Hindi. The fear of law is slowly catching up with these goons turned politicians. They also realise that their past masters - the Indian National Congress - is in no shape to help them.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Sep 2019 10:07

Suraj wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
I disagree. What you're suggesting is good in theory.

The current structure of the IPS is inherently corrupt and it is one of the reasons why J&K was brought in as a UT because that state's police are now part of the central Home Ministry.

You're not really disagreeing despite the statement - you're in fact agreeing with me :) The IPC and IPS are colonial entities, their complete replacement is something I seek. This is separate from the concurrent support for a larger police force, because the number of policemen/100k people in India is too small.

There's a repeated tendency to conflate the argument supporting a larger police force, with the assumption that I'm arguing for a larger IPS. That's not the case. The IPS just happens to be the current police service - a colonial entity poorly suited to modern administration. It's one of the several things that would benefit from wholesale replacement.

The topic would benefit from a separate thread focused on administrative structures for a modern nation, focused more on discussing administrative reorganization rather than the politics of it. E.g. in my opinion we need a national highway police that is not a state level entity. E.g. #2: we need a clearer legal framework for defining control over and prosecuting crimes that have inter-state footprint, i.e. a crime that's conducted across state boundaries gets automatically elevated to the control of the federal level police/investigation agency, rather than state level. E.g. #3: all major tier 1/2 metros (at least) need SWAT forces - not merely CT focused, but also capable of tackling urban economic mafias (e.g. sand, water, etc).


It's nice that we agree then. :)

A larger police force as it stands today would involve increasing the strength of state police forces, which I disagree with because of its current structure as tied to politicians in a state.

1. A national highway police that is not a state level entity would be part of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) which protects infrastructure throughout India. However, funding for an additional wing for highways would be quite costly. At this time I don't see the budget for it.

2. Crimes committed across state boundaries are covered by the CBI and again to strengthen the CBI would involve more funding.

3. Urban mafias and organized crime are often tied to local netas. Use existing law, the CBI and NIA need to lock up these netas and strip them of all current and future political office. I don't see the need for increased police, but rather strengthening the CBI with more resources which would be cheaper than having lots more police.

Despite all the bad stuff we may read, the people of India are kind hearted. Killing and violence is inimical to their ethos. Could you imagine if per capita income levels were to drop in the US or other western countries? They would rob, rape, and murder like there was no tomorrow (several US states are open weapon carry states). India is not a police state and doesn't need to be. As you stated, which I bolded in your quote, and to paraphrase what Rahul Mehta had said in the past, strengthening the court system and quickly adjudicating cases will cost much less than extending police forces and yield better results for law and order. On top of that civil case resolution would improve business competitiveness and deliver more economic growth.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 19 Sep 2019 10:43

ramana wrote:chetak If you are on twitter send me a DM.


Not on twitter, saar.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 19 Sep 2019 13:57

Mort Walker wrote:The current structure of the IPS is inherently corrupt and it is one of the reasons why J&K was brought in as a UT because that state's police are now part of the central Home Ministry.

If we are talking about corruption per-se it is not only the IPS but entire police machinery is corrupt (just like the RTO/MVD machinery and the revenue machinery). The central home ministry is also staffed with the same IPS cadre officials, so unless we can comfortably say that IPS-wallah in central ministry is not corrupt, we cannot assume that just attaching a state police to a central home ministry would bring in drastic changes.

Right now, police leadership in any state is through director general, commissioners, assistant commissioners, deputy commissioners, and superintendents of police. Then add the various inspectors, sub-inspectors and constabularies. There is way too much political interference by elected state officials.

IPS officers in a state are miniscule when compared to the state police service officials. A non-corrupt IPS official may be able to make some difference, but we must also understand that the highest corrupt nexus is between the mid-level police hierarchy and the equivalent levels of politicians. Many a time the state police is heavily politicised with states like KL even having police officials forming "associations" like trade unions. And politicians (if they are in elected positions) cannot be asked NOT to even talk with police officials. That system will not work in India.

Before increasing police size in India, the IPS needs to be overhauled where political influence becomes significantly diluted.

This would only work if we can prove that it is only IPS which is corrupted by political influence. Where as when it comes to police in reality corruption is there at every level. The cutting edge of a police force are basically Sub Inspectors & Inspectors. Below them the ranks don't have much say, and above them most of the work is supervisory. And this group of officials are always "sons of the soil". And a vast majority of them would also have political beliefs and at times will never be truely neutral.

A larger police force as it stands today would involve increasing the strength of state police forces, which I disagree with because of its current structure as tied to politicians in a state.

Correct me if I did not understood you properly. But are you saying that state police is corrupt because of state level politicians and that at central level such thing will never happen? A corrupt central government can then cause more damage by corrupting the entire national level policing machinery. Think about it Ra.Ga and So.Ga comes back to power, Shri. Chidu is the home minister who has direct oversight of every single police agency in the country? ;)

Suraj wrote:in my opinion we need a national highway police that is not a state level entity.

Mort Walker wrote:A national highway police that is not a state level entity would be part of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) which protects infrastructure throughout India.

I have a fair understanding of how KA,TN and KL highway police system works. Why should there be a "national" level policing system required when the highways are running in state's land, and the highway police is there to enforce only the Motor Vehicle Act related laws? These police men will also have to interact with the state's local people, so we also cannot say post a person from Bihar in a highway police jeep in Tamil nadu, hoping that since he does not know the language he would not be corrupt etc.

The Railway Police is an example where things don't work that well. The RPF is a national level police force. But their main job is to protect "railway property". So in practical terms, they are responsible to ensure that rice bags don't get stolen from a goods train, while they are not responsible for theft of passenger's bag (which he carries with him). That job becomes the responsibility of the G.R.P (Govt. Railway Police) which is a state level police unit, with men being deputed from the state police's strength.

For the national highways, patrolling of them should be done by the state police. And the central govt. can say that every state police should have a "highway patrol" wing. Such a directive is already in place, with pretty much all south indian cities complying with it. What can be done would for a central govt. agency (NHAI?) to collate data shared by the Highway Police wing from states and then find out the efficiency and even suggest focus areas.


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