2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 24 Oct 2019 12:59

Saw a tweet saying something like in GE, Modi factor plays important role, whereas in state elections, that factor takes a back seat to local issues. Not aware about candidates in MH and HR, but people are questioning the selection of candidates.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 24 Oct 2019 13:30

Now SS will put their foot down for pwd. Last time DF was firmed to keep pwd to bjp but this time he will have to compromise. Bad news.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 24 Oct 2019 13:39


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sum » 24 Oct 2019 13:42

Karthik S wrote:Saw a tweet saying something like in GE, Modi factor plays important role, whereas in state elections, that factor takes a back seat to local issues. Not aware about candidates in MH and HR, but people are questioning the selection of candidates.

Am sure there will no dearth of reasons to find in case results are not upto the mark.
Anything can be attributed as "THE" factor which caused the debacle.

Makes me admire NaMo even more that he could maintain a juggernaut across the whole country across all these years which means he is light years ahead of any of us in reading the exact pulse and needs of the junta and all the factors we keep obsessing on seem to hardly matter and its rather a mix and match of many things which needs to be tapped correctly

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 24 Oct 2019 13:48

Sachin wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:Did Hindus just eff-themselves over in Haryana? I was deeply worried when I saw the significant dip in turnout in both states. Typical Hindu complacency, aided by media predicting a BJP landslide.

The media would feed stories which suits there mindset, but did the state level BJP organisation also assumed things? In that case it would be the BJP at HY which needs to introspect. Also, there could be some pocket-boroughs of BJP from where the trends/leads are not yet fully known. I say this from Tripura experience, where the BJP spokesperson knew that trends/leads from certain constituencies are yet to come and THEY will also be a deciding factor. The commies already were rejoicing, without knowing this. In Tripura it was in the last 2-3 hours of counting that commies knew they were sinking.

A couple of linked points

1. Ticket distribution. I especially dislike when so called stars are inducted and given tickets ahead of loyal party workers. We did hear of a couple of them in Haryana this time. Gautam Gambhir too was "star" lateral. The guy is not grounded in the BJP culture and keeps shooting for "high moral ground" on the "liberal progressive" benchmarks. Does more harm than good.

2. Over confidence of the Party, carder and the supporters. When Amit Shah announced boldly in the interviews that BJP will get 2/3 majorities in its own, it spoke of hubris. There is a difference between confidence and hubris. I would have liked him to just have said something on the lines like "We are confident of returning back with majority". Confidence without Hubris.

3. We need to wait for the final voting percentages. Compare the seats and vote shares to the last election i.e. 2014. If the voting percentage is similar or more with lower seats then the fault would be with the voter discontent, ticket distribution, etc.

IF the voting percentage is down with seat decrease, it is most likely the result of hubris, cover-confidence, voter apathy, etc.

OTOH, if voting percentage and seats somewhat mirror the last time then the results would be ok. However, even in that case Amit Shah shouldn't have made that 2/3 assertion.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 24 Oct 2019 13:53

MMS is old and PC has lost his credibility. That's a massive opportunity for RRR to pitch for being the next FM. Or PM, if lucky, given that he can never overshadow the family.

or is it this what's driving him

No one really understands the true nature of fawning servility until he has seen an academic who has glimpsed the prospect of money.


has the RRR blighter converted


Kanchan Gupta Verified account @KanchanGupta

"It may feel good for everyone to praise you and say that you are the second coming of Christ..." ~ Raghuram Rajan in London at @INCIndia organised event. He was there with hua-toh-hua Sam Pitroda. Rajan's masque of sophistry falls off, and how! The bazar suits our #intellectuals

7:32 PM - 23 Oct 2019



Kanchan Gupta Verified account @KanchanGupta 5h5 hours ago

Irrespective of his political loyalties, R3 should know Indians are not Romans and #RomeRajya has at best been a pipe dream. The Prime Minister of #India does not wear a crown of thorns. Cheap comments may fetch Rajan applause, but it won't erase his disastrous tenure at RBI.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 24 Oct 2019 14:02

Worst case scenario - SS, Congress, NCP will team up like how it happened in Kar.

FWIW, no one cares about Gandhi anymore. And most of modiji supporters don't like Gandhi at all. Massive self-bomb I say. modiji is busy playing to some imaginary crowd. Hopefully, bjp loses both states.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 24 Oct 2019 14:05

Maybe I am wearing saffron colored glasses, Elections are won and lost by all parties at all times but what surprises me that there is still a huge chunk of Voters that wishes to see Khangress govt ruling over them despite so many decades of poverty, loot, plunder and lack of development during Congress Raj.
Besides corruption, Anti-Hindu policies and nepotism, What exactly does a Cong Govt brings to the table ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 24 Oct 2019 14:08

syam wrote:Worst case scenario - SS, Congress, NCP will team up like how it happened in Kar.

FWIW, no one cares about Gandhi anymore. And most of modiji supporters don't like Gandhi at all. Massive self-bomb I say. modiji is busy playing to some imaginary crowd. Hopefully, bjp loses both states.


DF will always be under the threat of SS joining NCP+Cong and get CM from SS installed. Thackrey as CM has its own seduction to SS.
Just because some people don't like Gandhi does not mean that Congress should be allowed anywhere near power. That would be a pretty silly argument.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 24 Oct 2019 14:09

CRamS wrote:I feel BJP+SS might just scrape through in Maha, while all bets are off at this point in Haryana. Very disappointing result from BJP PoV. At one point early on, I thought BJP will form govt on its own in Maha and kick those prickly SS rowdies out, but BJP is not even close.

Not at all a bad result of Pappu although I don't know if people actually voted for him or local leaders in both states.

But if hopefully BJP forms govt in both states, maybe a blessing in disguise in such a close result. ModiJi/Shah can go back to the drawing board and introspect.

To quote SuSwami, leaving aside all the punditry, no one issue drives the electorate. It must be a combination of Hinduthva + National security + economy + fight against corruption. Contrary to my understanding, BJP playing up 370 fetched only marginal returns it seems. This is surprising because the reason I thought 370 and TSP cut a chord in these 2 states is because of the large representation in the armed forces from these 2 states.

1. I too hope that BJP forms a government in both states. There are enough independents in Haryana to take BJP across the halfway mark per the current numbers.

2. Reality check is always good even when painful. As you say, a blessing in disguise.

3. Just a few days back, I had written that A.370/Balakot type events create a halo around leaders BUT don't win many votes. Not surprising at all to me.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 24 Oct 2019 14:10

sanjayc wrote:^^ But Cong kept winning elections for 70 years when the economy was in the dumps with "Hindu rate of growth"


There was no other party for most of the time. It won 2009 despite 26/11 because the economy was doing well. Other factors can only be supporting factors, but economy always seems to be the clincher.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 24 Oct 2019 14:17

abhijitm wrote:If you go away from urban middleclass area then in towns, villages corporates and especially MLAs are those with whom people remain constantly in touch. Lot of things that impact day to day life like water connection, electricity, farming related stuff, loans, jobs etc where local leaders play key role. There hindutva, 370 will not matter much. Leader who has good connect and works will get vote. Hence one cannot discount big influencial families in local election as they can get things done. Like a family controlling local co-op bank will amass great number of local votes. Usually these families control local banks, businesses and have district administration in their pocket. Difficult to convince a villager to vote against them on the name of national issues.

1. Absolutely with you on leaders who work. Hindutva works if there is an atmosphere of fear but not otherwise. A.370,etc give leaders a halo/trust but not votes on an empty stomach.

2. NCP's base is built around family and its subs controlling co-op banks, sugar co-ops, etc and thus are part of everyday life of an ordinary voters. Anyone who thinks A.370 will override that kind of connect neither understand life of mangos nor politics.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 24 Oct 2019 14:27

Looks like over confidence, economy, bad candidate selection (seeing tweets saying tiktok candidates were selected), caste equations, lack of attention on core issues are some of significant variables contributing to today's outcome.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 24 Oct 2019 14:32

syam wrote:Worst case scenario - SS, Congress, NCP will team up like how it happened in Kar.

FWIW, no one cares about Gandhi anymore. And most of modiji supporters don't like Gandhi at all. Massive self-bomb I say. modiji is busy playing to some imaginary crowd. Hopefully, bjp loses both states.

1. SS will transfer its ideological vote to BJP if it ties up with NCP/CON.

2. OTOH, BJP can tie up with NCP. Didn't we hear that Modi is good friends with Pawar?

3. Wrong reading can lead to the wrong results. Prime example "Modi is busy playing to some imaginary crowd"

Modi/BJP is a pan-India party that needs to factor in issues across the country. Meaning that it WILL HAVE to dilute it ideological purity on certain issues to appeal to a wider section of people. The other choice is to take a hard line and become a regional party like Shivsena or Akali dal or TMC. That also means that it will have NO capacity to influence issues at the center.

It is a choice between getting SOME or MANY THING done vs getting NOTHING done on ideological issues. Is that even a choice? What would you choose?

On this Issue I could write page upon pages but if this one example does not clear things up nothing can.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 24 Oct 2019 14:41

It is now past 2:00 pm and I would think that the current score would more or less carry to the finish.

On TOI's website, the current score is

MAH: BJP+ 162, INC+ 98
HAR: BJP 43, INC 30

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/ma ... 60087.html
MAH: BJP+ 167 (-18), INC+ 98 (+7)
BJP lost ground but CON did not gain much. Must be rebels who got the benefit

HAR: BJP 40 (-7), INC 30 (+15)
BJP did not loose much BUT CON recovered ground. CON seems to have stitched a better caste coalition, better candidate selection.

BJPs forming government in both places. Modi/Shah need to go back to the drawing board and re-work their strategies.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 24 Oct 2019 14:59

hopefully, you guys are right. every kid in india now thinks gandhi was british agent. It will be big self-bomb if modiji not careful with it.

on serious note, sangh and its affiliates need to fix their tech situation. they are still working in old way. tech is there to simplify our regular life. If we don't use it, we will be left behind. It's like competing with some one 10x faster and efficient than you.
Last edited by syam on 24 Oct 2019 15:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 24 Oct 2019 15:04

Gandhi Ji is a huge marker of Indic civilization abroad. You don't want someone else to appropriate it depite all his shortcomings. I don't think anyone drinks the kool-aid called Gandhi in India anymore despite all the public posturing around Gandhi else Veer Savarkar would not have been considered for BR.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 24 Oct 2019 15:12

pankajs wrote:It is now past 2:00 pm and I would think that the current score would more or less carry to the finish.

On TOI's website, the current score is

MAH: BJP+ 162, INC+ 98
HAR: BJP 43, INC 30

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/ma ... 60087.html
MAH: BJP+ 167 (-18), INC+ 98 (+7)
BJP lost ground but CON did not gain much. Must be rebels who got the benefit

HAR: BJP 40 (-7), INC 30 (+15)
BJP did not loose much BUT CON recovered ground. CON seems to have stitched a better caste coalition, better candidate selection.

BJPs forming government in both places. Modi/Shah need to go back to the drawing board and re-work their strategies.



some BJP rebels, with the covert blessings of the BJP, have contested against the SS candidates in seats that have gone to the SS in the seat sharing scenario.

Quite a few of them have won and they might support the BJP but it will not be enough for the BJP to go it on its own.

The SS will become uncontrollable now.

the BJP was foolish not to go on its own and ended up giving the SS many more seats than they could afford to.

hope that they don't make a similar mistake in bihar with that thug nitish kumar

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 24 Oct 2019 15:21

One main thing BJP can do is not give tickets to new 'stars'. So many karyakartas have braved many things, including their lives, and worked hard for BJP for years if not decades. It's totally wrong on BJP higher management to over look them.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 24 Oct 2019 16:22

pankajs wrote:1. Absolutely with you on leaders who work. Hindutva works if there is an atmosphere of fear but not otherwise. A.370,etc give leaders a halo/trust but not votes on an empty stomach.

100% true. There were bye-elections in Kerala today. 5 seats. The Congress gets 3 and commies gets 2. The BJP gets ZERO. There were multiple issues including caste conflicts and wrong selection of the candidates. The Sabari Mala temple based issue has now died out. Unless the commies try some other mischief, the Hindu devotees are never going to see a threat there. The commies have learnt their lessons. I don't think they will try further tricks in Sabari Mala, and they are doing door to door campaign apologising for the inconvienences caused to Hindu devotees (who vote for commies). So if status quo gets maintained there, and commies retain their vote bank; then BJP would be in the back benches for years to come. At least in KL, BJP leadership is considered as some one to make benefit of some one else' miseries.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 24 Oct 2019 16:25

iMac_too
@iMac_too

Bhai log, retaining Maharashtra is very big thing. Next only to retaining power at Center & UP. With combined firepower of Con-Pawar, had Sena-BJP gone separate they would be in opposition at this point

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 24 Oct 2019 16:26

There must be some logic in giving tickets to 'celebrities' and every party indulges in this game time & again. It isn't that BJP operates in a parallel universe.
What I don't understand is the reasoning behind it. Parties ignore Karyakarta and local leaders and foist someone completely an outsider onto them.
On top there is no guarantee that the Celebrity would win the elections as we have seen so many losing the elections except for some Bhai-wood actors. So what gives ?

PS: My Jaat friends in Haryana seem to be pretty thrilled about the prospect of getting a Jaat CM back again. And here I thought that caste and community lines have blurred in Modern India post 2014.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 24 Oct 2019 16:31

Sachin wrote:
pankajs wrote:1. Absolutely with you on leaders who work. Hindutva works if there is an atmosphere of fear but not otherwise. A.370,etc give leaders a halo/trust but not votes on an empty stomach.

100% true. There were bye-elections in Kerala today. 5 seats. The Congress gets 3 and commies gets 2. The BJP gets ZERO. There were multiple issues including caste conflicts and wrong selection of the candidates. The Sabari Mala temple based issue has now died out. Unless the commies try some other mischief, the Hindu devotees are never going to see a threat there. The commies have learnt their lessons. I don't think they will try further tricks in Sabari Mala, and they are doing door to door campaign apologising for the inconvienences caused to Hindu devotees (who vote for commies). So if status quo gets maintained there, and commies retain their vote bank; then BJP would be in the back benches for years to come. At least in KL, BJP leadership is considered as some one to make benefit of some one else' miseries.


Sachin Ji, Is it enough for Commies to apologize and get back into the good books of Hindus ? Forgiveness with use of threat is cowardice.
What would stop commies from trying the same trick again especially when BiF forces would love to humiliate Hindus over and over again.
I think BJP simply is not a viable option in Commie Land yet hence stays at zero. BJP has no dedicated vote bank in KL.
Surprisingly AIADMK has won in TN. That was refreshing knowing that they aren't really competitive anymore.
Rumor is that DMK will sweep the assembly elections whenever they happen and AIADMK will be consigned to the dustbin of history.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 24 Oct 2019 16:36

Do the results prove that Sonia is far better in handling Congress Party than Pappu ever would be.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 24 Oct 2019 16:45

BJP's ignore jat strategy did not work in Hayana.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 24 Oct 2019 16:46

Vikas wrote:PS: My Jaat friends in Haryana seem to be pretty thrilled about the prospect of getting a Jaat CM back again. And here I thought that caste and community lines have blurred in Modern India post 2014.


No need for that, same state gave flawless victory to BJP few months back. As someone posted on twitter, not every state election can be fought on national issues. Same Haryana was seen as a patiotic state then now suddenly it's called casteist.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 24 Oct 2019 16:46

Vikas wrote:Sachin Ji, Is it enough for Commies to apologize and get back into the good books of Hindus ? Forgiveness with use of threat is cowardice. What would stop commies from trying the same trick again especially when BiF forces would love to humiliate Hindus over and over again.
I think BJP simply is not a viable option in Commie Land yet hence stays at zero. BJP has no dedicated vote bank in KL.
Surprisingly AIADMK has won in TN. That was refreshing knowing that they aren't really competitive anymore.
Rumor is that DMK will sweep the assembly elections whenever they happen and AIADMK will be consigned to the dustbin of history.


Since Gandhi's time, Hindus have developed an emotional attachment to anti-Hindu parties who damage their interests. Shows an inability to think clearly.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 24 Oct 2019 16:56

vijayk wrote:iMac_too
@iMac_too

Bhai log, retaining Maharashtra is very big thing. Next only to retaining power at Center & UP. With combined firepower of Con-Pawar, had Sena-BJP gone separate they would be in opposition at this point

There was subterranean race between bjp and SS.

SS got very close so now they will demand key portfolios which they couldn't get last time. Main is PWD which if it goes from DF then a big set back for his work in next 5 years. SS will not do any work and will use this treasure to fill its pockets. Exactly what they did in 1990s and lost next election.

SS dubegi aur sath mein BJP ko lekar dubegi.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 24 Oct 2019 16:56

Vikas wrote:Do the results prove that Sonia is far better in handling Congress Party than Pappu ever would be.

Vikasji
100%
The old guard and 'garuds' are back !!
The 'Awesome-Twosome' of the BJP have to recalibrate for the next election and strategize for the 'Sonia-Old guard combine'
The so-called Rahul-gang are like 80's and 90's Bangladesh Cricket when everybody would queue up to score 'double hundreds' (Remember Dizzy Gillespie scored a double hundred but UR not going call him an all-rounder!! though he wont mind :lol: )
So to twist the 'Modi hai to mumkinn hai' = 'Rahul hai to Problem nahin' warna problem hai!!! :((
Unless some bigger scandal with the 'Darbaris' come out just in time for the press to have a field-day

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 24 Oct 2019 17:02

Vikas wrote:What would stop commies from trying the same trick again especially when BiF forces would love to humiliate Hindus over and over again.

At present I don't see commies trying any more tricks at Sabari Mala. They are not bothered about KL BJP, but they are bothered about Congress party. The commies know that they are now mistrusted by the Hindus, and they have already started course correction moves. Commies want to survive in KL, and for that they know Hindu devotees needs to be kept happy. The BIF forces would try to leverage the situations, but there would also be resistance from the Hindus. Sabari Mala still is an emotional issue, but people would only hit the streets in case they see an imminent/open threat.

I think BJP simply is not a viable option in Commie Land yet hence stays at zero.

BJP leadership in KL is pathetic. KL state has lots of unique characterestics, due to pretty much every religion having a more or less equal population. The state has not seen large riots, or partition struggles etc. The BJP in KL needs to come up with a real unique strategy to deal with KL. Na.Mo & A.Shah can guide, but they may not be able to completely come up with this strategy. BJP's general tactic is to use only Hindutwa which frankly does not have much takers in KL. Their leadership also has lots of infighting and have also not been able to overcome caste based tussles.

RSS has a very good cadre setup in KL. They have withstood commies for decades now. Even if Sabari Mala problems crop up again, it would be the RSS which can counter it (than the BJP). As of today it looks like KL BJP was trying to keep Sabri Mala issue burning to take political advantage. That is wrong. People would soon realise that KL BJP is just using the Hindu devotee's sad situation to seek votes. All said and done, the state level BJP has not done any thing to sort out this issue even today. They weasel out by saying "let the courts decide". All this gives an impression that KL BJP wants Sabari Mala to be another Ayodhya case.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 24 Oct 2019 17:05

^^ BJP can only do so much -- the Hindus too need to open their eyes rather than behave like cussed mules who cannot be made to see reason

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 24 Oct 2019 17:11

Vikas wrote:There must be some logic in giving tickets to 'celebrities' and every party indulges in this game time & again. It isn't that BJP operates in a parallel universe.
What I don't understand is the reasoning behind it. Parties ignore Karyakarta and local leaders and foist someone completely an outsider onto them.
On top there is no guarantee that the Celebrity would win the elections as we have seen so many losing the elections except for some Bhai-wood actors. So what gives ?

PS: My Jaat friends in Haryana seem to be pretty thrilled about the prospect of getting a Jaat CM back again. And here I thought that caste and community lines have blurred in Modern India post 2014.

And Vikasji
'Caste and community lines have blurred' is just a myth propagated by the yuppie/liberal/leftist media and also sometime used to torment right-wingers.
The problem is it so very well entrenched in the psyche of the nation the only way is if there is sudden obliteration of a few generations( population between 25's to 45's) and I am not suggesting we should embark on a such monumental massacre.
Just to give u examples:
1.French Revolution and the aftermath ( near complete wipe out of the aristocracy)
2.The great wars[/b] and Britain turning class-less(although arguable)
3.Russion revolution and similar fate of the Russian Aristocracy and liberal thinkers
4.Mao's march and birth of the 'Red Dragon'
The conquering armies of the Bharath realized these fault-lines in the society and perpetuated it to maintain law and order(less chance of joining of forces)

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 24 Oct 2019 17:38

The Haryana elections remind me of Gujarat 2017 when it was a close fight and only last minute pinch hitting by Modi saved the day. Even at that time rural distress was the main reason. Hopefully after the current slow down, the next 5 year cycle will see high growth and economy won't be a factor in elections anymore.

If BJP has to lose a state, let it be a small state like Haryana.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Mollick.R » 24 Oct 2019 17:47

In Haryana all is not lost.

TOI showing breaking news that JJP with 10 seats (projected) is ready to support Khattar.

May be JJP fella is trying to do price discovery from both camps one by one. :roll: :roll: :roll:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Oct 2019 17:53

Reverse Dilbullah Effect in full swing.
Cliffhanger: Did he or will he? Haryana BJP Chief on his resignation
So Haryana is the only "Hindu" state in India, hain? Set up to differentiate from Sikh-dominated Punjab?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 24 Oct 2019 17:56

Was LS 2019 an exemption? BJP have under performed in recent state elections, so these 2 elections have to looked broadly. Despite a 7% vote difference, BJP werent able to sweep Haryana. This vote share to seats ratio is different in state and national elections?

And how will Hindu causes like Ram Mandir matter, and in this case, 370 didnt matter? When the support groups dont even go out to vote, its a big worry.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 24 Oct 2019 18:02

Mollick.R wrote:In Haryana all is not lost.

TOI showing breaking news that JJP with 10 seats (projected) is ready to support Khattar.

May be JJP fella is trying to do price discovery from both camps one by one. :roll: :roll: :roll:


if true, surely there are other suppliers willing to supply what the BJP needs and this guy is simply trying to scare away the competition.

The BJP has levers of power that can be used from beyond the haryana borders and folks are well aware of it.

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Oct 2019 18:04

I hope Modiji will bring a Constitutional Amendment changing the finger on which the ink dot is put, from index to middle. I do a double-take whenever I see these pics of desis proudly showing the "I voted" salute.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 24 Oct 2019 18:07

By elections are also not very encouraging for bjp.

Guj, MP, Raj and Pjb they have lost incumbent seats to cong. Only one seat in sikkim where bjp snatched it from other parties. Elsewhere some they retained, some lost. Net net Congress gained in by election in terms of retention + snatch.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 24 Oct 2019 18:11

greatde wrote:Was LS 2019 an exemption? BJP have under performed in recent state elections, so these 2 elections have to looked broadly. Despite a 7% vote difference, BJP werent able to sweep Haryana. This vote share to seats ratio is different in state and national elections?

And how will Hindu causes like Ram Mandir matter, and in this case, 370 didnt matter? When the support groups dont even go out to vote, its a big worry.


maybe, the BJP faithful have not voted in the expected/required numbers due to overconfidence based on hyped up reports in the press of a no contest and forgone conclusion of certain victory for the BJP.

a similar thing happened in KAR, especially in Bangalore :mrgreen:


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