2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2019 03:16

Why is SS feeling so angsty? A few days back it claimed the support of 170+ MLAs. It should just go ahead and form the government without BJP.

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1191313137645043712
TIMES NOW @TimesNow

Report: @Shivsena shoots letter to RSS, wants Union Minister @nitin_gadkari to end stalemate in Maharashtra govt formation.

Looks like SS is seeking a face saver to back-off and declare victory. Seems the Amit Shah vizit UT/AT were expecting did not materialize. :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2019 03:25

Seems like that bleddy Mudi has set TN on phyre ... It all seems to have started with Mudi quoting another Tamil saint in Thailand and TN BJP putting out a picture of that saint clad in Saffron with visible Yindu marks on his body.

https://twitter.com/madhavpramod1/statu ... 9598666752
Pramod Madhav @madhavpramod1

It’s more likely Saivam, Saktham, Kaumaram, Gaanapathiyam, Sauram and Vainavam are there.. Not likely a Hindu religion..

And none of the Thamizh literature promoted caste or religion based discrimination..

Thamizh literature belongs to everyone..

The proud DMK, Atheists, Rationalists and seekoolars are seeing red lately. One guy just declared Shiva, Sakti, Kartick, Ganesh, etc as non-Hindus's :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KJo » 05 Nov 2019 03:49

Any predictions about what may happen in MH? Fadnavis seems very confident.

I think it was a mistake to tie up with a troublesome party like SS. BJP contesting all seats may have brought it very close, if not a majority.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 04:06

KJo wrote:Any predictions about what may happen in MH? Fadnavis seems very confident.

I think it was a mistake to tie up with a troublesome party like SS. BJP contesting all seats may have brought it very close, if not a majority.


the eyetalian has ruled out the congi support to the SS NCP combo leaving both of them high and dry.

the NCP's big game hunting days seem to be over and the SS has burned its bridges, leaving the BJP free to contest all the seats next time.

the SS has only one option left now because even the independents will not support it.

The BJP should form the govt along with the SS and then break the SS by engineering defections thereby ensuring a threat free 5 years.

Then again, everyone may just be hiding their cards while waiting to spring a surprise at the very last minute, waiting to see how the situation evolves and who approaches the governor and with what letters of support.

Right now the BJP is holding the strongest hand, followed by the NCP. These are the only two who seem to have a shot. one as the obvious contender and the other a contender by default because the SS over played its weak hand.

Independents will play a big part if the SS needs to be taught a lesson.


nitishwa is watching with rapt attention as he also has very similar ambitions of ditching the BJP

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 05 Nov 2019 10:00

chetak wrote:
Vikas wrote:^^ Captain has no future in BJP. On Top, Age is not on his side which means BJP will not have much interest in him.
Rather they would like to get a young one like Scindia or Pilot.


….. and have their fingers in every political party and conveniently subscribe to every ideology that benefits them.

Power is what drives all these guys, not ideology or even the thought of public service or even the idea of India.



100% True for most of the politicians as well Political families.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kvraghav » 05 Nov 2019 13:46

pankajs wrote:Seems like that bleddy Mudi has set TN on phyre ... It all seems to have started with Mudi quoting another Tamil saint in Thailand and TN BJP putting out a picture of that saint clad in Saffron with visible Yindu marks on his body.

https://twitter.com/madhavpramod1/statu ... 9598666752
Pramod Madhav @madhavpramod1

It’s more likely Saivam, Saktham, Kaumaram, Gaanapathiyam, Sauram and Vainavam are there.. Not likely a Hindu religion..

And none of the Thamizh literature promoted caste or religion based discrimination..

Thamizh literature belongs to everyone..

The proud DMK, Atheists, Rationalists and seekoolars are seeing red lately. One guy just declared Shiva, Sakti, Kartick, Ganesh, etc as non-Hindus's :rotfl:


I sometimes feeling he is bending over backwards too much to appease Tamil Nadu. Even the recent transportation infrastructure support from Germany went there. Hope he does half of that to the neighboring state which gave him 98% of the MP seats.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nits » 05 Nov 2019 14:00

Vikas wrote:
He can't be in BJP and play second fiddle to Badal clan and BJP will never ditch Akali Dal.


Why; akali has lost there relevance and no more a power in politics - Just IMHO

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 15:41

kvraghav wrote:
pankajs wrote:Seems like that bleddy Mudi has set TN on phyre ... It all seems to have started with Mudi quoting another Tamil saint in Thailand and TN BJP putting out a picture of that saint clad in Saffron with visible Yindu marks on his body.

https://twitter.com/madhavpramod1/statu ... 9598666752

The proud DMK, Atheists, Rationalists and seekoolars are seeing red lately. One guy just declared Shiva, Sakti, Kartick, Ganesh, etc as non-Hindus's :rotfl:


I sometimes feeling he is bending over backwards too much to appease Tamil Nadu. Even the recent transportation infrastructure support from Germany went there. Hope he does half of that to the neighboring state which gave him 98% of the MP seats.


Hasn't he succeeded in creating panic in the dravidian goonda gangs with his seemingly innocent overtures and now the entire crypto environment sees the existential threat that Modi represents to their hitherto unchallenged and unquestioned domination of the narrative as well as the hegemony of their one sided political discourse that has become entrenched to the extent of actually causing economic harm to the state and country as dictated by the BIF.

What was the opposition to koodankoolam, jallikattu and the sterlite plant, if not BIF muscle flexing and the first public attempts at the show of strength and a clear intent of their agenda.

All the above agitations had obviously visible politico religious undertones with other minorities and the naxals+commies joining in to claim their share of the cake.

Why did the DMK transfer crores of rupees to the CPI and the CPM during the elections and at whose behest was it done. The evident politico religious answers are staring us in the face and yet we choose to ignore facts.

The canterbury bishop came to India, prostrated at the jalianwalla bagh and left without even being acknowledged by anyone in the govt.

Do you really think that the visit of the canterbury bishop and the reaction to it was innocent.

An unmistakable message was sent and duly received.

The failure of the visit was quickly played down and the discourse removed from the public space. Otherwise, we would have endless discussions about it on runditv and BBC

The TN dravidians know that the big boys have now come out to play and some pristine dhothies/vaisties have already started browning.

Modi's operation south has just kicked off and people in TN will discuss Modi like never before (good or bad is immaterial) and start seeing the goodies that can come their way if they throw off the dravidian blinkers and join the non separatist mainstream. Modi is starting to gain an increasingly visible public profile and he will continue to push the Idea of India which was negated by the dravidians thus far. This negation of the Idea of India and the revulsion for the Indian culture started with caldwell about 200 odd years ago and continues unabated to this day by the dravidian parties.

Slowly the beneficial central schemes started by Modi will come to the fore and they just cannot be hidden, sidelined and also appropriated by the dravidian parties anymore.

Money talks and the dravidians have suddenly realised that they are not the only ones with the money.
Last edited by chetak on 05 Nov 2019 16:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 05 Nov 2019 16:09

nits wrote:
Vikas wrote:
He can't be in BJP and play second fiddle to Badal clan and BJP will never ditch Akali Dal.


Why; akali has lost there relevance and no more a power in politics - Just IMHO


No, Akalis are still very much in the game of musical chairs.
BJP can not be a dominant player in Punjab till they have a towering leader which they don't have nor is there anyone on the horizon.
Moreover they have been with BJP for as long as one can remember. It is a good combination which is working well.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 05 Nov 2019 16:13

KJo wrote:Any predictions about what may happen in MH? Fadnavis seems very confident.

I think it was a mistake to tie up with a troublesome party like SS. BJP contesting all seats may have brought it very close, if not a majority.


It is going to be a Non-BJP govt as per rumors on the ground. If SS goes back with BJP now, They will have egg on the face and will get zero respect from DF.
SS burnt the bridge with the drama of last 2-3 days. Now it is either walk the plank or walk of shame for them.
Unfortunately for them neither DF is playing the ball nor NCP is too enamored by them.
SS and BJP going solo would have got BJP lesser or same number of seats as votes would have been divided and no net addition would have happened.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2019 16:15

kvraghav wrote:
pankajs wrote:Seems like that bleddy Mudi has set TN on phyre ... It all seems to have started with Mudi quoting another Tamil saint in Thailand and TN BJP putting out a picture of that saint clad in Saffron with visible Yindu marks on his body.

https://twitter.com/madhavpramod1/statu ... 9598666752

The proud DMK, Atheists, Rationalists and seekoolars are seeing red lately. One guy just declared Shiva, Sakti, Kartick, Ganesh, etc as non-Hindus's :rotfl:


I sometimes feeling he is bending over backwards too much to appease Tamil Nadu. Even the recent transportation infrastructure support from Germany went there. Hope he does half of that to the neighboring state which gave him 98% of the MP seats.

Modi is not bending backwards to appease TN. What he has done till date is praised its culture and its icon. That is par for the course for a politician.

On the Infra/Investments diversion, I would "think" that most project are proposed by State government that then get financial backing within India or from abroad and get the center's approval especially if it involves foreign money because at some level it involves guarantees that only the GOI can give.

So, if I am reading it right without doing any research on my own, the project that "went" to TN was "proposed" by TN who promptly roped in the Germans to help finance it. GOI would just have signed off on the deal with some due diligence. Nothing stops the rest of the states to pitch similarly structured projects to the Center.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 16:17

Vikas wrote:
nits wrote:
Why; akali has lost there relevance and no more a power in politics - Just IMHO


No, Akalis are still very much in the game of musical chairs.
BJP can not be a dominant player in Punjab till they have a towering leader which they don't have nor is there anyone on the horizon.
Moreover they have been with BJP for as long as one can remember. It is a good combination which is working well.



That is also why a political pygmy like the rootless and garrulous siddhu felt emboldened enough to throw his hat err, turban into the leadership ring.

The fact that this guy is a closet khalistani should never be forgotten. There are so many in punjab who are of the same breed and that cuts across the whole political spectrum.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2019 16:27

kvraghav wrote:
pankajs wrote:Seems like that bleddy Mudi has set TN on phyre ... It all seems to have started with Mudi quoting another Tamil saint in Thailand and TN BJP putting out a picture of that saint clad in Saffron with visible Yindu marks on his body.

https://twitter.com/madhavpramod1/statu ... 9598666752

The proud DMK, Atheists, Rationalists and seekoolars are seeing red lately. One guy just declared Shiva, Sakti, Kartick, Ganesh, etc as non-Hindus's :rotfl:


I sometimes feeling he is bending over backwards too much to appease Tamil Nadu. Even the recent transportation infrastructure support from Germany went there. Hope he does half of that to the neighboring state which gave him 98% of the MP seats.

Here is something in the works for the "neighboring state which gave him 98% of the MP seats"

https://twitter.com/c_aashish/status/11 ... 4321850377
Aashish Chandorkar @c_aashish

Rs 15,990 crore Bengaluru’s Suburban Rail Project Cleared By Extended Railway Board

This will go to the Union Cabinet next and if cleared, will take 6 years from start to end

We need to get beyond the short-term thinking and knee jerk reactions.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2019 16:39

https://twitter.com/nistula/status/1191337859979939841
Nistula Hebbar @nistula

“When I measure the RCEP Agreement with respect to the interests of all Indians, I do not get a positive answer. Therefore, neither the Talisman of Gandhiji nor my own conscience permit me to join RCEP”- says PM @narendramodi in his speech at the #RCEPSummit

Modi being Modi is acting like Modi .. using the Mahatma as a shield.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 16:43

pankajs wrote:
kvraghav wrote:
I sometimes feeling he is bending over backwards too much to appease Tamil Nadu. Even the recent transportation infrastructure support from Germany went there. Hope he does half of that to the neighboring state which gave him 98% of the MP seats.

Here is something in the works for the "neighboring state which gave him 98% of the MP seats"

https://twitter.com/c_aashish/status/11 ... 4321850377
Aashish Chandorkar @c_aashish

Rs 15,990 crore Bengaluru’s Suburban Rail Project Cleared By Extended Railway Board

This will go to the Union Cabinet next and if cleared, will take 6 years from start to end

We need to get beyond the short-term thinking and knee jerk reactions.


This was a sometimes on sometimes off project that was given a strong final push by the new bangalore MP tejasvi.

He networked with the ministries to get this sanctioned.

Land values around the route will skyrocket and hence different parties had different players that they wanted to please but this guy rammed it through regardless.

Public has high praise for him but politicos have their knives out for him because they all think that they have lost a lot in not being allowed to have a say in the project "parameters".

Tendering for the project will be the next biggest lollipop.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2019 16:55

The official map of J&K and Ladakh is different from what was generally assumed before its release.

The various theories supporting the official reshuffling are ..
1. Show Kashmiris their place
2. Give Ladakh its due
2. Better defense of Ladakh from all side.
3. All territories facing China under one admin/command/center.

All the above and more is true but I feel the objective of the redrawing of the boundaries by Modi and co has been done with some other objective than the above. Just that I have this sense but no logic till now.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2019 17:34

https://twitter.com/prasannavishy/statu ... 2490928128
Prasanna Viswanathan @prasannavishy

Properties worth about ₹1,600 crore, belonging to Sasikala, close associate of late CM Jayalalithaa,,attached under provisions of the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Act. Properties procured using 1500 crore in demonetised notes under fictitious names.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 18:46

x posted from the economy thread


Narendra Modi has done well to keep India out of RCEP, but WTO-style bargaining for future entry is a good idea




Narendra Modi has done well to keep India out of RCEP, but WTO-style bargaining for future entry is a good idea

Madhavan Narayanan,
Nov 05, 2019

India's economy and polity both have a strong agricultural grounding, and its demographics are such that more than a billion people depend on their livelihoods in a stable farming environment
Imports may threaten farm sector competitiveness while rising farm prices threaten consumer price stability for the industry and service sectors

RCEP is essentially a move to counter the US, which has a special relationship with India on everything from technology-based industries to security aspects

There is a Hindi proverb to describe those who invite trouble: "Aa bail, mujhe maar" (Come bull, gore me). We might as well invent a new-age idiom if we were to invite trouble in a manner that China would trouble India's economy: "Come dragon, gore me". As it happens, China is an ostensible trading partner for India, but from security issues to manufacturing competitiveness, things are on such a fragile ground between the two Asian giants that it makes sense to hasten slowly on everything in which the elephant might want to embrace the dragon.

To this, we might add the idea that Australia and New Zealand, ever the friendly economies for India, can be seen in a different light when they are viewed as agricultural superpowers.

In such a context, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done the wise thing in keeping India out of the ambitious Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the planned ASEAN-plus free trade area with ten members of the Association of South East Nations (ASEAN) joining Japan, Oceania, South Korea and China. His own self-image as a decisive leader has been asserted in the process, but more importantly, it shows that joining the RCEP as a founding member would be a risk India can ill-afford in a new world economic order.

Narendra Modi has done well to keep India out of RCEP, but WTO-style bargaining for future entry is a good idea

While RCEP, now reduced to 15 members after India's decision, may be painted as a single economic grouping that offers low tariff barriers and market access to member economies, the simple fact is that the dice are loaded against India in what would be a certain gamble in uncertain times for India's struggling economy. India has enough wounds to heal in its economy before it can afford to play footsie with Asia-Pacific wannabes offering a charming embrace.

India's economy and polity both have a strong agricultural grounding, and its demographics are such that more than a billion people depend on their livelihoods in a stable farming environment. Farmers, on the other hand, are not a happy lot. From unremunerative agricultural prices to restrictions on crop residue burning, they walk the wedge as much as India's manufacturers have to look over their shoulders to see if Chinese counterparts are selling or dumping goods in a manner that threatens their future.

Consider the fact that both the white and green revolutions that India can be proud of are at potential risk. Australia and New Zealand, who we have just started outshining in our favourite sport, may well turn the economic game into something that is simply not cricket. Farm wages are rising in India, while the demographics are such that food security is a double-headed problem. Imports may threaten farm sector competitiveness while rising farm prices threaten consumer price stability for the industry and service sectors.

Modi has, therefore, rightly invoked a Gandhian allusion to considering the plight of the poor and the farmers in rejecting the RCEP.

At one level, the staying out does question India's credentials in the march to globalisation, but this is not 1991, when the domestic economy was in a balance of payments crisis and opportunities and threats were both conducive to a step towards globalisation. A few years later, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power, it invented a term called "calibrated globalisation" in its bid to defend the domestic industry from being quickly cast to the uncertain whirlwinds of global capital. The situation has not changed much since then as far as India's manufacturing and agricultural sectors are concerned.

India's core strength is human capital, and anti-immigration and protectionist narratives in the West are gently but firmly laying down limits to leveraging India's inherent potential. On the other hand, 63 years of active industrialisation since the start of the second Five Year Plan in 1956 has given India a strong manufacturing base. It is not good enough to uniformly or easily compete against the Chinese or the West, but strong enough to serve a local economy.
It is noteworthy that India has trade deficits with as many as 11 of the RCEP's 15 partner economies.


The ink has barely dried on Modi's slogan linked to the nationwide Goods and Services Tax (GST): "One nation, one market." From the judiciousness of the rates involved to actual GST collections and sharing the revenues from it between states, India has to manage its own house first. Add to this the persisting crisis in the banking and financial service industry amid an industrial slowdown, and an income support scheme for farmers that has barely got off the ground amid a fiscal crunch. You get the picture: RCEP is a recipe for a risk that adds more uncertainties to an already uncertain ground.

Though one does not know what goes on inside the prime minister's mind, it can be said safely in the backdrop of the challenging measure to introduce a GST and a thoroughly controversial demonetisation of high-value currency notes, he must have felt it wise to be in agreement with the Congress party's opposition to the RCEP.

Economists like Arvind Panagariya argue that India can be base for exports to other RCEP economies if multinationals (read: Western giants) invest here to tap the new regional market in the Asia-Pacific. But we need to ask: What are the opportunity costs of this risk? We might add that there are unresolved issues linked to infrastructure. Investing in large manufacturing bases are not as easy as it might seem.

Does that mean India stays a lonesome wanderer in the global economy? Obviously not. India's subcontinental dimensions offer internal opportunities for growth. There is plenty of plumbing to do in everything from banking to macroeconomic stability, but the doors are already open for foreign investors across the board. Engaging meaningfully with Europe and the US can still do wonders for India.

As for RCEP, India must keep its doors open for possible future engagements. For this, RCEP should be viewed as a "mini-WTO" where India can negotiate the details of its entry (think visas, regional security and farm sector safeguards and exceptional import duty protection). The bargaining should be such that it gives India a fair chance of stable growth and managing a transition to better opportunities.

It is true that the RCEP is part of a desirable "Look East" approach in India's diplomacy. But looking before you leap is a key part of the game. It also pays to remember that the RCEP is essentially a move to counter the US, which has a special relationship with India on everything from technology-based industries to security aspects. There is no need to be a groupie in a hurry.


Japan, an RCEP member, can be for India a special partner, given its rich resources that complement that of India rather than compete with it. South Korean manufacturing chaebols already have a huge presence in India. Nothing stops them from helping India boost its competitiveness as an exporter if India has to find a place as an equal partner in the RCEP.

We can continue to play cricket with the Aussies and buy Ganesha idols from the Chinese. Sparring with a kangaroo and dating a dragon is fine. Deeper engagements can wait.

(The writer is a senior journalist and commentator. He tweets as @madversity)

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 20:01

Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 05 Nov 2019 20:27

pankajs wrote:The official map of J&K and Ladakh is different from what was generally assumed before its release.

The various theories supporting the official reshuffling are ..
1. Show Kashmiris their place
2. Give Ladakh its due
2. Better defense of Ladakh from all side.
3. All territories facing China under one admin/command/center.

All the above and more is true but I feel the objective of the redrawing of the boundaries by Modi and co has been done with some other objective than the above. Just that I have this sense but no logic till now.

pankaj ji, Good points. Would you have any perspective on if it makes sense to include GB & Ladakh together geographically and military perspective or is it just a finger up in the air to show them their place..

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 20:48

The greatest threat to Pakistan comes from Afghanistan rather than Kashmir




The greatest threat to Pakistan comes from Afghanistan rather than Kashmir

The Kashmir issue may not vanish from the regional and global agenda, but it is the Pashtun question which will continue to haunt the future of Pakistan and the Subcontinent.

C. Raja Mohan ,
November 5, 2019



The greatest threat to Pakistan comes from Afghanistan rather than Kashmir

It is a myth that Kashmir is the sole source of the conflict between India and Pakistan.

As he threatens to lock down Islamabad if Imran Khan does not resign, the leader of the Jamiat-ulema-e-Islam, Maulana Fazlur Rehman responded to two major charges from the Pakistani establishment. One was the accusation that he was promoting an Indian agenda. The Maulana responded by reminding his audience that it was Imran Khan who said that the re-election of Narendra Modi will help resolve the Kashmir dispute. Imran Khan’s incompetence, Rehman said, led to Modi’s “annexation” of Kashmir. In Islamabad, India is a whipping boy for all sides.

The establishment also pointed to the flags of Afghanistan and the Taliban being waved by many of the protestors. The Maulana dismissed these concerns as frivolous. While appealing to his followers not to wave the Taliban flags, he reminded the public that the governments of Pakistan and many others were embracing the Taliban. In any case, both the Maulana and Imran have long been supporters of the Taliban.

The broad agreement in Islamabad that India is the threat and the Taliban is an ally, hides an important a reality — the greatest threat to Pakistan comes from Afghanistan rather than the unfinished agenda of Kashmir. Amidst the super-charged rhetoric in Pakistan about Kashmir, after the Indian decision to change the state’s constitutional status, and the growing anxieties in Delhi about losing the argument in the global arena, it might be unfashionable to argue that the latest developments in Kashmir are a lot less significant than the unfolding prospects of a renewed civil war in Afghanistan.

Part of the problem is the prolonged political myth-making on Kashmir. Pakistan and India have propagated the myth that their nation-building is incomplete without full control over Kashmir. A second myth, about the territorial coherence of J&K, masks the fact that the region is a mere collection of diverse cantons that came together through a quirk of history.

A third myth is about the geopolitical significance of Kashmir as the “world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoint”. This was invented by the non-proliferation ayatollahs in Washington, ever eager to roll-back the nuclear programmes of India and Pakistan. It fed nicely into Rawalpindi’s strategy to blackmail the world with the threat of nuclear escalation and get the international system to compel Delhi to cede territory.

The fourth myth suggests that Kashmir is the sole source of the conflict between India and Pakistan. But, it is by no means clear that if India settles the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan, Islamabad will become friends with India overnight. The conflict between India and Pakistan is more deeply rooted in the legacy of partition.

The fifth myth is that the world will ride in to liberate the Kashmiris from India. If Rawalpindi has been rather optimistic about mobilising the international community to sever Kashmir from India, Delhi has been far too fearful about external intervention in its disputes with Pakistan. After seventy-odd years of conflict, the only concessions that Pakistan “wrested” from India were those “gifted” by Delhi, which voluntarily took the issue to the UN in 1947-48.

Despite the many wars and military crises, the enduring feature of Kashmir has been the military stalemate there. Consider the following: Despite throwing everything it had at India, Rawalpindi has not been able to materially alter the territorial distribution in Kashmir.

Finally, there is the myth that Kashmir has been central to the Subcontinent’s evolution. Kashmir is certainly a very emotional issue for Pakistan. It is also an ideological legacy of the partition of the Subcontinent. To the GHQ in Rawalpindi, at least, it is about avenging India’s vivisection of Pakistan in 1971. But, from a realist perspective, Kashmir has been essentially marginal to the heartland politics in Indo-Gangetic plains across the Indo-Pak divide.

Compare the stalemate in Kashmir to the impact of Afghanistan on the Subcontinent. Through the millennia, all great invasions of the Subcontinent have come through Afghanistan. Cut to modern times and see what Afghanistan has given to the Subcontinent and the world in the last four decades: The communist coup in 1978 followed by Soviet occupation, a Pakistan-backed jihad against the Red Army that brought Islamic radicals from all corners of the world, Zia’s injection of Islam into Pakistan’s polity, the end of Pakistan’s brief experiment with constitutional democracy, the rise of the Taliban and al Qaeda, the 911 attacks, the American occupation, and its retreat, paving way for a possible return of the Taliban.

While Delhi is once removed from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s problems on its western borderlands are unlikely to end any time soon. The open border with Afghanistan and the refusal of Afghans, including the Taliban, to recognise the Durand Line as the formal boundary between the two nations are one set of problems that Pakistan continues to cope with.

The Durand Line running was a matter of convenience for the British Raj. But the large Pashtun population that straddles the line is a huge challenge for Islamabad. The fear of an ethnic “Pashtunistan” that could undermine the Islamist basis of the nation has always worried Pakistan. Although the jihad against Russia and its role as the frontline state gave Pakistan many benefits, the prolonged war in Afghanistan has left Islamabad deeply vulnerable on its western frontiers.

The Kashmir stalemate will continue to simmer. But, it is the strategic fluidity in Afghanistan that threatens to upend the regional order once again. Pakistan will most likely bear the worst of the fallout.


The Kashmir issue may not vanish from the regional and global agenda, but it is the Pashtun question which will continue to haunt the future of Pakistan and the Subcontinent. The Taliban flags blowing in the Islamabad wind are probably the sign of things to come

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 05 Nov 2019 20:51

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... Dx6NL.html
PM Modi attempts long-awaited overhaul in bureaucracy
The Modi government’s decision to hold a common foundation course for all Group A services including the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) from 2020-2021 is the first step in breaking these silos and elite clubs that function within the Indian bureaucracy.

At the conclusion of an unsatisfactory meeting to review the government’s “Ek Bharat, Sheshtra Bharat” programme on October 12, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the top bureaucrats present at the meeting that they had spoiled his first five- year tenure but that he would not allow them to spoil the second. “Apne mere paanch saal barbad kiye hai, main apko agle paanch saal barbad nahin karne doonga,” he said, according to people present in the meeting, holding the bureaucracy responsible for delays in programme implementation.
Since its conception by then home minister Sardar Patel, the Indian bureaucracy has largely moved from a national to a self-serving agenda in which the focus is on processes, not outcomes. There is no penalty for acts of omission, although acts of commission are often questioned with a significant number of officers under the scanner for corruption and malfeasance. The once steel frame of Indian governance architecture has rotted with each service operating within its own silo and ready to go to war within the government to protect its own haloed turf.
The Modi government’s decision to hold a common foundation course for all Group A services including the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) from 2020-2021 is the first step in breaking these silos and elite clubs that function within the Indian bureaucracy. That the twice-born IAS will have to rub shoulders with lesser mortals at the foundation stage and work towards a common purpose may change the game after all.


Rather than trod the well beaten path of injecting the officers with oft-repeated and boring lectures on administrative governance, the 94th Foundation Course’s trainees were exposed to the future of technology and exponential thinking. With the help of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the US-based Singularity University, the Institute of Future and LBS National Academy of Administration, the officer trainees were made aware of several issues and trends and their possible impact on the Civil Services: artificial intelligence, Big Data, the future of manufacturing and logistics, and other such. At the six-day Kevadia module, the trainees were addressed by experts including David Malpaas, president, World Bank; Sir Suma Chakraborti, president, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; and Juergen Voegele, global director of Climate Change at the World Bank.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 05 Nov 2019 21:11

Time to push this narrative hard and fast in AP/TN

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jesus-ne ... _b_9848702
Jesus Never Existed, After All


In an earlier post, I argued that the historicity of Jesus was doubtful. Some religion scholars questioned one of my sources. Now, recent scholarship comes as close as possible to settling the issue.
Personally, I have no ax to grind so far as the historical existence of Jesus is concerned. If anything, I would prefer to believe that the life of Jesus, painstakingly learned in childhood, was connected to history rather than a fiction.


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 05 Nov 2019 21:32

https://swarajyamag.com/world/ekla-chol ... ic-follies
Ekla Cholo Re: India’s Destiny Is To Walk Alone Whether It’s RCEP, Article 370 Or Countering Abrahamic Follies

It is India’s unique destiny that for long periods of time, especially as it awakens itself from deracination and cultural stupor, it will have to walk alone. We must thus be prepared to do our own thing, with Ekla Cholo Re on our lips.
Whether it is our decision on Article 370, our proposed entry into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), our opposition to aggressive proselytisation (which is the Abrahamic way), our partnership with Israel or our decision to become a nuclear power, the world has often frowned on us. And so did our own ruling elite, who feared global opprobrium and isolation.
What no one has ever talked about is why this is so. India is a Hindu homeland with almost all the Hindus of the world concentrated here. Thus, while there are scores of Christian and Muslim majority countries, there is only one Hindu country. If Hindu interests have to be protected, there can be only one voice supporting it (India’s). On the other hand, if there are issues concerning Muslims or Christians, there will be scores of countries who can raise their voices. It is India’s tragedy that our sick secularism prevented us from even defending Hindu interests in our own neighbourhood. Fearing isolation is not the right way to defend dharma and the truth.
The Hindu/Indic religious geography implies that India is more likely to be isolated on issues than almost any other country barring Israel and China. We have to thus learn our lessons from them on how to walk alone. It is by building our own strengths, and not entering into deals or alliances that are not in our interest, driven purely by fears of isolation.
Yesterday (10 October), Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal expressed the usual fears of isolation with reference to negotiations on India’s bid to join the RCEP: “If India remains out of RCEP, we will be left isolated from this large trading bloc. The trade among RCEP countries is about $2.8 trillion. If India sits outside RCEP, whether it is in our interest or against our interest, it is also the responsibility of the government to see. You will want us to engage to find solutions which is in national interest.”


If this is the disordered state of the world, isolation will become the norm. The mantras to live by are the following:
#1: Each country has to depend on its own strength for growth, internal and external security. This can be complemented by bilateral and regional trade and security agreements, but the dominating principle in all such arrangement should be Nation First. India has much to learn from Israel here.
#2: A world characterised by disorder rather than order will be a more dangerous place, but this world also lends itself to deeper ties with those whose interests align with ours. Apart from Israel, our natural allies are Japan, Australia, Vietnam, parts of Africa, Iran, and the US (upto a point). Maybe even post-Brexit Britain, once its leaders realise that the British Raj is over, and it is now only an ordinary nation looking for friends. For a Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn seems to be the last imperialist left standing when it comes to India. He made unwarranted statements on Article 370, and for this alone India needs to read the riot act to Britain if Labour comes to power.
India also needs to build closer ties to Turkey’s natural enemies, Greece, Armenia and Cyprus. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey is trying to reclaim its old influence in the Muslim world, when the Ottomans provided the Caliphs. One wonders what possessed Mahatma Gandhi to try and win Indian Muslim loyalties by backing the Khilafat movement nearly a century ago. The Narendra Modi government has clearly learnt not to woo Muslims by backing ideas inimical to Indian interests, and the latest condemnation of the Turkish invasion of Syria is the correct one. Turkey criticised our Article 370 action, and thus freed us from restraint on this score.
#3: Isolation can be a source of strength, for you can identify your own interests clearly, and work with whoever can help you with it. For centuries, Britain was isolated as an island and became the balancing power in Europe. It could align with any weaker power whenever a stronger power looked like emerging on the continent. China remained in splendid isolation for nearly a quarter century after the communists captured power in the late 1940s. It was only in the early 1970s that they opted to break their self-imposed isolation by doing a deal with Richard Nixon’s America, and it took them another 30 years to become part of the global trading system – a system that they gamed to derive all the benefits without the costs.
India should not fear isolation, for it frees us from having to follow policies that go against our own interests. We can do our own deals.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 21:42

all the accumulated benefits of India's green and white revolution accrued over decades of hard efforts will simply be pissed away.

RCEP/OBOR/BRI/CPEC is all part of the same chinese great game and it carries the very same national security risks to the very sovereignty of the Indian State

Thet are desperately trying to protect themselves against a rampaging trump who has all but shut down their extremely profitable dukhans in the US.

RCEP is something of a band aid replacement market for the chinese who no longer enjoy unfettered access to the US markets.

Too bad that they lost out on India.


twitter


Why should we open our market for imports by signing #RCEP, when a @NITIAayog recent report of Feb 2018 has shown that India’s #milk production in 2016-17, at 162.5 million tonnes (mt), exceeded the demand of 147.5 mt, with this gap projected to widen by 2032-33.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 22:28

are we foolishly trying to "leverage" the visas of a few tens of thousands/lakhs of Indian software guys and others in the "service" industry against the very livelihood of tens of hundreds of crores of Indian farmers and their families.

don't think gandhi was involved in any way in this decision to not join the RCEP.

vote banks were. In fact, the very same vote banks that prevent politicos and their parties from taking legal action against the stubble burning farmers.

assuming that each Indian farmer's family has 5-6 family members, not counting parents.

No wonder that the govt gave the RCEP a wide berth.

twitter

Australia has 5000 #dairy farmers, & 5700 farms, avg of 261 cows

New Zealand has 12000 dairy farmers & 11590 herds, avg=431 cows

India has 7.5 crore farms, avg=1-2 cows

Q-Who suffers if we open our markets to cheap imports thru #RCEP?
Ans-Our farmers

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 06 Nov 2019 03:09

My beef with Rajamohan is he always bats for everyone but India and despite being mentored by KS garu!!!!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rudradev » 06 Nov 2019 03:13

Isn't he one of those Nanyang University (Singapore) guys?

I think he was also the Henry Kissinger Chair holder at some US institution (Harvard Kennedy?)

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 06 Nov 2019 03:13

vijayk wrote:https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/modi-attempts-long-awaited-overhaul-in-bureaucracy/story-EWO2IHX6wTSpUNpIfDx6NL.html


“Apne mere paanch saal barbad kiye hai, main apko agle paanch saal barbad nahin karne doonga,” he said, according to people present in the meeting, holding the bureaucracy responsible for delays in programme implementation.


one fails to understand how such an astute person, as Modi obviously is, could have been taken for a ride by the entrenched bootlicking darbaris who were all purposely placed in key positions just before the departure of the congi lot to sabotage the incoming NDA.

People warned him about these people but he pigheadedly chose not to listen.

For over three years after the congi govt departed, the termites continued to exercise a death grip on the NDA with quite a few NDA guys themselves still aligned with the lootyens gang.

just see how long it took to get white dhoti into tihar

any guy coming into office, anywhere in the world, first cleans house, by mercilessly slaughtering and decimating all traces of the previous incumbent.

He then brings in his own new set of scorpions and cockroaches after exterminating all the preexisting ones.

Demonetization, GST and many other examples like voting against israel in the UNGA when the pro israel policy of the NDA govt was very clearly known to all is still fresh in public memory.

Retaining diseased rats and feral bandicoots at the RBI was another very grave mistake for which Modi is still paying in terms of diminished political capital.

CBN was also a bad mistake, especially with the BJP well knowing all his traitorous activities of the past.

let's hope for lessons well learned and a powerful weedicide available close at hand to weed out those rascals still raising their heads.

He now has a major problem coming up with the new CEC.

paswan is very seriously bucking for the VP slot, presuming that naidu will get the Rashtrapati Bhavan gaddi. Promoting non BJP guys will be a disaster even bigger than RRR and his termite gang of deputy governors left untouched and embedded in the RBI.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 06 Nov 2019 03:16

ramana wrote:My beef with Rajamohan is he always bats for everyone but India and despite being mentored by KS garu!!!!


ramana saar,

Its always good to know what these guys are writing and see if resonates with recent events of import to us.

BTW, General JJ Singh has recently written a book on the Durand line.

I haven't read it yet.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 06 Nov 2019 03:21

Kashmir was a geo-political problem. By finalizing the integration, GOI has removed it from the geo-politcal table.

As Vayutuan says in dark chambers removed K from Pakistan
TSP has now become PaXiStan with Chinese takeover.

As for Afghanistan the govt forces ANA are finally hitting back Jihad-e-fistula.
Very narrowly Pakjab escaped chaos last week.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 06 Nov 2019 03:26

Rudradev wrote:Isn't he one of those Nanyang University (Singapore) guys?

I think he was also the Henry Kissinger Chair holder at some US institution (Harvard Kennedy?)


busy guy. been slithering up the greasy pole.

has a JNU background so take with a big sackful of salt.

per wiki

He is the Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore.[1] Previously, he was the founding Director of Carnegie India.[2] He has also been a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi[3] and Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, and prior to that, a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and Professor of Centre for South, Central, Southeast Asian and Southwest Pacific Studies, School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.[4] He was the Henry Alfred Kissinger Scholar in the John W. Kluge Center at the Library of Congress, Washington, D.C. during 2009-10.[5]. He began his academic career at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 06 Nov 2019 03:38

This is very unusual for the US and is probably also why India did not back down in spite of a strident and belligerent china

It also explains why, in the midst of the doklam crisis, the chinese ambassador directly contacted pappu and fed him and his sister's family lunch, all the while hoping that pappu would drop his usual pearls of wisdom.

They met pappu again during his himalayan "trek".

Wonder if he delivered.


twitter


Interesting research by @joshuatwhite suggests that US may have been more willing to directly support India in Doklam crisis than was/is commonly assumed. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10. ... 19.1662191 … p. 423.



Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 06 Nov 2019 05:50

Tanvi is a serious scholar!

US shill.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 06 Nov 2019 09:35

Mean while at New Delhi the Police v/s lawyers fight seems to be a burning issue. It may be the first time that police men actually went on such a big protest. The disconnect between the lower ranks and the IPS-wallahs are also becoming quite obvious. Delhi Police is under control of the central govt so "seculars" would also be closely watching the situation.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 06 Nov 2019 11:51

How on earth can cops get beaten up mercilessly by Lawyers or for that matter anyone ? Only in India, cops are beaten black and blue by anyone.
What happened to macho, rude, flippant and aggressive policeman of Delhi ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 06 Nov 2019 14:40

Why would Pawar and Congress not support ShivSena? They are under attack by BJP and their leaders are all looking at jail time, especially the very top brass of congress. By breaking SS away from BJP, more than Maharashtra, they would be taking away a big chunk of the Lok Sabha seats in 2024.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 06 Nov 2019 15:54

hanumadu wrote:Why would Pawar and Congress not support ShivSena? They are under attack by BJP and their leaders are all looking at jail time, especially the very top brass of congress. By breaking SS away from BJP, more than Maharashtra, they would be taking away a big chunk of the Lok Sabha seats in 2024.


That is a million Yen question. What is Con + NCP waiting for ?
IN the short term, they would deny BJP a chance to return to power, tan SS with secular brush and above all, make some money by being in govt. There is no downside to forming govt with SS for Con and NCP.
Is it that all this BJP- govt is chatter in the air and no one is offering anything to anyone ?
Pawar Kaka is acting very cool and so is DF. The only party which is making all the noise and seem desperate is Sanjay Raut.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby dinesh_kimar » 06 Nov 2019 16:38

chetak wrote:This is very unusual for the US and is probably also why India did not back down in spite of a strident and belligerent china


Chetak Saar, the US is much closer to S. Korea and Philippines than India.

When China bullied these two nations, there was no US intervention. The Chinese rammed their Naval /CG ships in disputed areas of SC sea.

Chinese are careful only with US or Japan, for obvious reasons.

The Chinese were keen to make India another Philippines / Korea.

Main intervention in Doklam was robust and unprecedented responses from the Indian Army and Air Force, which forced Chinese to back off. The final story of Doklam has not yet been told.

The article authors above themselves admit that their work is speculative, and is mostly guess work.

My speculation and guesswork is US Diplomacy is not worth a flying fish, more so when concerning their close allies, much less a neutral country like India.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 06 Nov 2019 17:08

https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news ... ssion=true


PM Modi attempts long-awaited overhaul in bureaucracyThe Modi government’s decision to hold a common foundation course for all Group A services including the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) from 2020-2021 is the first step in breaking these silos and elite clubs that function within the Indian bureaucracy.



Updated: Nov 05, 2019 10:38:32

By Shishir Gupta

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told top bureaucrats that they had spoiled his first five- year tenure but that he would not allow them to spoil the second. (REUTERS)

At the conclusion of an unsatisfactory meeting to review the government’s “Ek Bharat, Sheshtra Bharat” programme on October 12, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the top bureaucrats present at the meeting that they had spoiled his first five- year tenure but that he would not allow them to spoil the second. “Apne mere paanch saal barbad kiye hai, main apko agle paanch saal barbad nahin karne doonga,” he said, according to people present in the meeting, holding the bureaucracy responsible for delays in programme implementation.

Since its conception by then home minister Sardar Patel, the Indian bureaucracy has largely moved from a national to a self-serving agenda in which the focus is on processes, not outcomes. There is no penalty for acts of omission, although acts of commission are often questioned with a significant number of officers under the scanner for corruption and malfeasance. The once steel frame of Indian governance architecture has rotted with each service operating within its own silo and ready to go to war within the government to protect its own haloed turf.

The Modi government’s decision to hold a common foundation course for all Group A services including the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) from 2020-2021 is the first step in breaking these silos and elite clubs that function within the Indian bureaucracy. That the twice-born IAS will have to rub shoulders with lesser mortals at the foundation stage and work towards a common purpose may change the game after all.

By holding the 94th Foundation Course for 744 candidates to be appointed in IAS and other Group A services from August 26 to December 6, 2019, the government has made the right beginning with a six-day module at the feet of the Sardar Patel statue at Kevadia village in Gujarat. It was at this module that PM Modi exhorted trainee bureaucrats to double their outcomes so that India becomes a $5 trillion economy by 2022.

Rather than trod the well beaten path of injecting the officers with oft-repeated and boring lectures on administrative governance, the 94th Foundation Course’s trainees were exposed to the future of technology and exponential thinking. With the help of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the US-based Singularity University, the Institute of Future and LBS National Academy of Administration, the officer trainees were made aware of several issues and trends and their possible impact on the Civil Services: artificial intelligence, Big Data, the future of manufacturing and logistics, and other such. At the six-day Kevadia module, the trainees were addressed by experts including David Malpaas, president, World Bank; Sir Suma Chakraborti, president, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; and Juergen Voegele, global director of Climate Change at the World Bank.

Using the Statue of Unity in the backdrop to instil national pride, the trainee officers were also reminded by PM Modi that, with the installation of the new steel frame of Indian bureaucracy, the time for accountability has also come. This is evident in the fact that Group A services officers, including from the IAS, have been compulsorily retired or repatriated back to their parent cadres on grounds of non-performance. The only service still to take action against non-performers is the Indian Foreign Service, which comes under the ministry of external affairs.

When PM Modi took over reins of power in 2014, a number of his advisers told him that his biggest challenge would come from resident permanent opposition, the Indian Civil Services, which view governments as a passing phase of five years while they stay in power for 35 years. It his clear from his recent actions that Modi, who seemed to have bushed aside the advice then, is trying to change things in his own way.


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