2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 12:42

greatde wrote:Sickular votes are completely united in stopping BJP. Will happily vote any XYZ. They know SS is a dynasty party and putra- moh is all that matters. As long as Thackarary gets their desired piece of cake, they will dance to their tunes...

I am not disputing the first part but understand it's implications!

The sickulars will migrate to the NCP from CON because it is the strongest party best positioned to defeat BJP.

So the CON will try to counter that by insisting on sickular garuntee from SS in a common minimum program document.

IF the SS does that, what will it do to its ideological base of hindutva? This may be 10 or 5 or 2 or 1 % but what choice will they have but to migrate to the BJP.

Net net, BJP will gain at the expense of SS and NCP at the expense of CON.

1st level analysis is easy but one must go further to 2nd and 3rd level analysis.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 11 Nov 2019 12:46

pankajs wrote:3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.

In pure context of MH:
There are many grey areas when it comes to hindu pride and "hindutva". A hindu, a proud hindu or devotional hindu, he doesn't automatically become BJP voter. Similarly rural hindus vote for NCP/Cong are not hinduphobe or islamists. Maharashtrian society is very religious down to villages. When we move from urban middile class society to towns and villages then the dynamic shifts.

As I said earlier, these NCP, Cong leaders have set up their tents way before BJP came along. Their votes are not based on ideological alignment but alignment to the ecosystem and benefits coming out of it. For example, a lady I know has her kid educated in Sharad pawar's school, now learning in Sharad Pawar's college. These instututes create future voters. Just start searching by list of institutions SP has founded, is board member. The list is big. SP is now completing medical college in baramati. This is many years of work. People within this ecosystem will vote for SP, whether he is in NCP or Cong. Hence NCP retained its hold even after splitting from Cong.

Lets say voters in baramati vote to a BJP MLA. Now what? SP and his clan is not going to go away. Who will be the troubleshooter in Baramati region? BJP MLA? No. These baramati people will have to go to pawars for all sorts of help. That BJP MLA is not going to create an alternative ecosystem overnight or take over SP's ecosystem. So voters will always think from that angle and vote.

Shivaji Maharaj freed Maharashtra from invaders and thereby lifted baggage of guilt on future MH generations. Unlike north which bore the maximum brunt of invaders, MH became free of it. Hence there is no inner need for MH hindus at village level to united for common cause. They however remain devotional hindus. The need came in 1993 and hindus in Mumbai united under SS.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 12:52

abhijitm wrote:
pankajs wrote:3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.

In pure context of MH:
There are many grey areas when it comes to hindu pride and "hindutva". A hindu, a proud hindu or devotional hindu, he doesn't automatically become BJP voter. Similarly rural hindus vote for NCP/Cong are not hinduphobe or islamists. Maharashtrian society is very religious down to villages. When we move from urban middile class society to towns and villages then the dynamic shifts.

As I said earlier, these NCP, Cong leaders have set up their tents way before BJP came along. Their votes are not based on ideological alignment but alignment to the ecosystem and benefits coming out of it. For example, a lady I know has her kid educated in Sharad pawar's school, now learning in Sharad Pawar's college. These instututes create future voters. Just start searching by list of institutions SP has founded, is board member. The list is big. SP is now completing medical college in baramati. This is many years of work. People within this ecosystem will vote for SP, whether he is in NCP or Cong. Hence NCP retained its hold even after splitting from Cong.

Lets say voters in baramati vote to a BJP MLA. Now what? SP and his clan is not going to go away. Who will be the troubleshooter in Baramati region? BJP MLA? No. These baramati people will have to go to pawars for all sorts of help. That BJP MLA is not going to create an alternative ecosystem overnight or take over SP's ecosystem. So voters will always think from that angle and vote.

Shivaji Maharaj freed Maharashtra from invaders and thereby lifted baggage of guilt on future MH generations. Unlike north which bore the maximum brunt of invaders, MH became free of it. Hence there is no inner need for MH hindus at village level to united for common cause. They however remain devotional hindus. The need came in 1993 and hindus in Mumbai united under SS.

My post was about "SS .. sinking"

If you read my post just above, you will see that I think BJP will gain at the expense of SS and NCP at the cost of CON. Net net BJP and NCP will gain at the expense of SS and CON.

I am only taking of ideological, both hindutva and sickular, voters shifting to more committed (BJP) / capable (NCP) parties. Now whether such voters are 1% or 50% of the respective party base, I have no clue.

Nowhere do I suggest that Hindus traditionally voting for NCP/CON will suddenly shift to BJP. Where did you read that?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 11 Nov 2019 13:03

pankajs wrote:
abhijitm wrote:In pure context of MH:
There are many grey areas when it comes to hindu pride and "hindutva". A hindu, a proud hindu or devotional hindu, he doesn't automatically become BJP voter. Similarly rural hindus vote for NCP/Cong are not hinduphobe or islamists. Maharashtrian society is very religious down to villages. When we move from urban middile class society to towns and villages then the dynamic shifts.

As I said earlier, these NCP, Cong leaders have set up their tents way before BJP came along. Their votes are not based on ideological alignment but alignment to the ecosystem and benefits coming out of it. For example, a lady I know has her kid educated in Sharad pawar's school, now learning in Sharad Pawar's college. These instututes create future voters. Just start searching by list of institutions SP has founded, is board member. The list is big. SP is now completing medical college in baramati. This is many years of work. People within this ecosystem will vote for SP, whether he is in NCP or Cong. Hence NCP retained its hold even after splitting from Cong.

Lets say voters in baramati vote to a BJP MLA. Now what? SP and his clan is not going to go away. Who will be the troubleshooter in Baramati region? BJP MLA? No. These baramati people will have to go to pawars for all sorts of help. That BJP MLA is not going to create an alternative ecosystem overnight or take over SP's ecosystem. So voters will always think from that angle and vote.

Shivaji Maharaj freed Maharashtra from invaders and thereby lifted baggage of guilt on future MH generations. Unlike north which bore the maximum brunt of invaders, MH became free of it. Hence there is no inner need for MH hindus at village level to united for common cause. They however remain devotional hindus. The need came in 1993 and hindus in Mumbai united under SS.

My post was about "SS .. sinking"

If you read my post just above, you will see that I think BJP will gain at the expense of SS and NCP at the cost of CON. Net net BJP and NCP will gain at the expense of SS and CON.

I am only taking of ideological, both hindutva and sickular, voters shifting to more committed (BJP) / capable (NCP) parties.

Nowhere do I suggest that Hindus traditionally voting for NCP/CON will suddenly shift to BJP. Where did you read that?

In your point 3 you were trying distinction between secular/hindu votes. I tried to explain the grey area.
This "E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters."

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 13:17

pankajs wrote:On Maharashtra politics

1. BJP wanted the alliance to be broken by SS to avoid the charge of backstabbing. No matter what the SS says, in the public eyes, it broke the hindutva alliance. That leaves BJP free to do its own thing without worrying about handing SS an emotive issue.

2. Will be interesting to watch out for the "common minimum program" document for the alliance. Will it have hindutva elements or will it not? Will it have sickular elements or will it not?

CON/Left almost always insists for common minimum program as part of an alliance. Will be interesting what the CON forces the SS to accept as part of common minimum program. I am going to watch out for that.

3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.

I though I was clear enough but still let me clarify ...

There are Hindus, there are Hindutva-vadis and then there are Uber-Hindu-vadis.

Hindus = Roti / Kapda / Makan / Sadak/ Bijli / Pani / Security (mostly secular issues) + Cultural pride but NO assertion( Content with status quo on culture)
Hindutva-vadis = Hindus + Cultural assertion (Not content with status quo on culture)

Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.

So the migration of Hindutva-vadis can ONLY happen from SS to BJP but not from NCP+CON because obviously NO Hindutva-vadis vote for them!

Added Later: Sickular are ALL non-Hindus and a segment of Hindus who dislike BJP/RSS politics. Them migrating to BJP is out of question. They will migrate to the stronger of NCP and CON when faced with choice with their agenda of defeating BJP. So I expect CON to NCP migration.
Last edited by pankajs on 11 Nov 2019 13:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 11 Nov 2019 13:20

Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.
Morally UT might be wrong but Politically he is making the right move. His Party would end up with single digits in few years as BJP expands its base. His moment of life is now or never. This is his time to become CM and carve throne for his son before it is too late.
I will not condemn UT though I am disappointed. We did not vote for Congress/NCP to come back to power thru back channels.
SS led govt now will have its own challenges of running state while they were always about Marathi Manoos. Now what will they do about non-Marathi manoos ? Hindutava can be put on back burner as MH doesn't have any major communal tension simmering underneath atleast for now.
Running a govt can be tricky and treacherous though but not impossible. SS doesn't has vote bank spread across MH unlike BJP or NCP+Cong so they will simply exist as long as they don't upset the applecart.

It is not very hard to see NCP and SS together (Congress in the tow) as politics is all of convenience and interests. Will it help NCP or SS or BJP will be decided during next elections. Till then everyone can exists under the Sun.
Regional Political parties have been known to flirt, romance and then back stab these days. Doubt if voters really give a damn about it. I also don't think that current gen of voters is committed to any political party or ideology.
Meanwhile for BJP, it will go back to drawing board and plan for next state elections. SS has fired first shot, it ain't the end of war. You don't cross AS, call him a liar and live happily ever after.
Congress gets some more wind in its tattered sail while everyone waits with bated breath for the end of Pawar era and then vultures will land. may happen tomorrow or may not happen till 2024.
Last edited by Vikas on 11 Nov 2019 13:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 13:27

Vikas wrote:Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.

Simple .. will SS celebrate the Ram temple court victory or not? Will they participate in the building of the Ram temple of not?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sum » 11 Nov 2019 13:28

Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.

Simple glance of K'taka in the last yr with JD(S)-INC should be enough where the ideologies were not even as different as in this case where they seem diametric to each other.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 11 Nov 2019 13:31

pankajs wrote:Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.


If that was the case, then why are SS leaders joining hands with NCP+Con in the first place? Its not a simple black & white picture. There are many factors including personal interests. If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.

Right now, BJP is only gaining a moral high ground but that means nothing if you are not in power.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 11 Nov 2019 13:32

pankajs wrote:
Vikas wrote:Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.

Simple .. will SS celebrate the Ram temple court victory or not? Will they participate in the building of the Ram temple of not?


pankajs, SS will play on both sides of the divide now. They will suddenly go on mute about Hindutva except for few articles in Samana. Don't forget the Cong/NCP need SS as much as they need them. So both sides will take Janta as a fool for next few years.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 11 Nov 2019 13:34

sum wrote:
Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.

Simple glance of K'taka in the last yr with JD(S)-INC should be enough where the ideologies were not even as different as in this case where they seem diametric to each other.


Thankfully, MH don't have Gowda parivaar or Siddu. Pawar bhau is too sophisticated for such crass games while Congress will not get much of say in MH.

My 2 cents are this govt if formed will survive for more than 2-3 years.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 11 Nov 2019 13:38

greatde wrote:
pankajs wrote:Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.


If that was the case, then why are SS leaders joining hands with NCP+Con in the first place? Its not a simple black & white picture. There are many factors including personal interests. If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.

Right now, BJP is only gaining a moral high ground but that means nothing if you are not in power.


You are right. We lay too much emphasis on ideology. Unless something major happens or there is a wave, most of the voters will stick to whomsoever they vote with a 3%-4%. swing making the difference.
SS will not see any rebellion as they are too close to power now. Who doesn't want to get onto a grave train.
BJP maybe on a high moral ground but will that translate into votes next time is a million Yen question. Thankfully BJP is not dependent upon any ally for NM govt's stability.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nits » 11 Nov 2019 13:43

In all this what happens to BMC - will BJP take support back from SS there ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 11 Nov 2019 13:54

greatde wrote:If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.


What would SS MLAs gain by revolting. They want power and they'll get it either way.

Going by what Maharashtra-based rakshaks here have pointed out, SS leaders may not actually be perturbed about any backlash at the ground level from their constituents. Of course, some BJP supporters who may have voted for SS may be a tad miffed, but SS voters probably will not care much.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 13:57

greatde wrote:
pankajs wrote:Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.


If that was the case, then why are SS leaders joining hands with NCP+Con in the first place? Its not a simple black & white picture. There are many factors including personal interests. If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.

Right now, BJP is only gaining a moral high ground but that means nothing if you are not in power.

There are Marathi manoos and Hindutva-vadis who vote SS. Marathi manoos vote is not going anywhere only the Hindutva-vadis votes that will migrate. Now if that vote is 1% or 50% of SS voter base, I don't know.

The answer to your question is simple!

1. What does the last could of election cycle tell us? Specifically, 2014 and 2019 MH results? That the BJP is growing at the cost of SS! BJP has become the de-facto party of Hindutva-vadis.

2. RJB verdict will further add to the Hindutva credentials of the BJP. Will it add to the Hindutva credentials of SS? Will the SS claim credit in alliance with CON+NCP which have the exact opposite ideology? The RJB verdict will only increase the BJP's attraction to for the Hindutva-vadis base of SS.

3. SS joins hands with CON+NCP will have to dilute its ideological commitment to Hindutva. There are no if and buts. IT WILL HAPPEN. That will only accelerate the migration of Hindutva-vadis from the SS to BJP.

4. I would further suggest that BJP took this step of walking away from government formation under the glow of the RJB verdict. The verdict allows them to present themselves as at the forefront of Hindutva in contrast to SS which is willing to work with anti-Hindutva forces for power. Also allows them to claim of being principled vs the unprincipled SS.

IIRC, it was Raut of SS who stated "Abhi nahin to kabhi nahin". He understood the imperative. He should be able to clear all your doubts.

a. Lust for power / Putra moha. A very human fault.
b. Slow but steady erosion of its Hindutva base. Unable to match the BJP on this count.
c. Ego .. unable to digest that when junior partner overtakes you. A very human fault.

As for "Internal rebellion" how do you know? Is the game over yet or are we in the beginning of the innings? Have patience.

BJP's moral high-ground will translate to higher political ground when the next election happens. That is why the BJP has rolled the dice on this one.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 14:03

Vikas wrote:
pankajs wrote:Simple .. will SS celebrate the Ram temple court victory or not? Will they participate in the building of the Ram temple of not?


pankajs, SS will play on both sides of the divide now. They will suddenly go on mute about Hindutva except for few articles in Samana. Don't forget the Cong/NCP need SS as much as they need them. So both sides will take Janta as a fool for next few years.

He he ... As I asked before ... What if BJP decides to honor the MH martyrs of RJB in Mumbai and invites UT/AT. Will they accept and be seen to be honoring the folks who brought down the Babri structure?

BJP can keep asking questions like that. IF the CON/NCP needs the SS then let SS fully claim the glories of RJB movement! Will be fun watching the entertainment.

Added Later: From now till the time the RJB Ram Mandir is completed, about 6-7 years, there will be so many opportunities to test SS commitment to Hindutva that is it insane to think UT/AT can keep mum and get away with it.

UT/AT can openly support Ram Temple too. Only it will irritate the sickular voters of NCP/CON. I would suggest BJP offer a seat on the RJB trust to be formed to UT as an acknowledgement for his contribution to RJB movement. Wouldn't that be right neighborly of BJP!

Now all my analysis ONLY focuses on Hindutva vote of SS and not the Marathi manoos vote.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby RajD » 11 Nov 2019 14:39

Whatever is happening on ground in Maharashtra is really unfortunate and unacceptable but realistically speaking, the BJP simply didn't have the heft to win Maharashtra on it's own, neither the last time nor had it this time round despite having Modi wave to ride on both these occasions. As I'd said before in 2014 there was a division of votes but still it couldn't. And this time the congies fought together so it was bound to be a close fight. And AS knew it.
The situation is going to be the same in future also, and will unfold exactly the way it did in Bihar state elections if Cong, NCP and SS stick together in the next elections too.
And the most ironical part of it is that
it will not be a surprise if BJP wants to form alliance again with SS at a later date exactly like they they have done with Nitish. Many had written obituary of Nitish long back and are doing the same for SS. But it's highly unlikely that the SS would fade away. Many are drawing anology with fate of CBN but its also notable to see what the status BJP has in Andhra after break up with him. It's a wishful thinking that all nationalistic hindutwawadi voters will desert SS and come to BJP.
It's going to be a long winter for BJP in Maharashtra, really a very very long one, once again.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 14:51

RajD wrote:Whatever is happening on ground in Maharashtra is really unfortunate and unacceptable but realistically speaking, the BJP simply didn't have the heft to win Maharashtra on it's own, neither the last time nor had it this time round despite having Modi wave to ride on both these occasions. As I'd said before in 2014 there was a division of votes but still it couldn't. And this time the congies fought together so it was bound to be a close fight. And AS knew it.
The situation is going to be the same in future also, and will unfold exactly the way it did in Bihar state elections if Cong, NCP and SS stick together in the next elections too.
And the most ironical part of it is that
it will not be a surprise if BJP wants to form alliance again with SS at a later date exactly like they they have done with Nitish. Many had written obituary of Nitish long back and are doing the same for SS. But it's highly unlikely that the SS would fade away. Many are drawing anology with fate of CBN but its also notable to see what the status BJP has in Andhra after break up with him. It's a wishful thinking that all nationalistic hindutwawadi voters will desert SS and come to BJP.
It's going to be a long winter for BJP in Maharashtra, really a very very long one, once again.

Everyone has an opinion and it is their right ...

Hindutwawadi voters will ditch SS for BJP BUT not the Marathi manoos voter. The Hindutwawadi voters may not be enough to trouble SS. Anyone one votes for SS after it aligns with CON, which fought tooth and nail to prevent RJB resolution in favor of Hindus, is NOT Hindutwawadi but an ordinary Hindu whose prime concern is his/her secular needs and that is Ok too. That is not to say that they are not proud Hindus, an overwhelming percentage are.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 15:07

A CON pasand BJP hating "journo"
https://twitter.com/sumanthraman/status ... 0704025600
Sumanth Raman @sumanthraman

This is not bcos they couldn't break the Sena.They didn't even seem to attempt it. Something is going on. BJP possibly sees an opportunity to cannibalize Sena vote and by showing SS as opportunistic by aligning with INC-NCP they may be thinking longer term.

1. Opportunistic and untrustworthy.
2. Compromised on Hindutva

I don't think PK is a Modi/BJP's secret weapon but an opportunist.
https://twitter.com/ajitdatta/status/11 ... 4863426570
PK will go down as the man who buried JDU and SS, making BJP the primary player in 2 important states. This is after helping PM Modi win in 2014. And serving as the opposition's campaign manager in UP (2017) when BJP got 325+. Don't tell me he wants to take Modi down

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kittoo » 11 Nov 2019 15:18

RajD wrote:Whatever is happening on ground in Maharashtra is really unfortunate and unacceptable but realistically speaking, the BJP simply didn't have the heft to win Maharashtra on it's own, neither the last time nor had it this time round despite having Modi wave to ride on both these occasions. As I'd said before in 2014 there was a division of votes but still it couldn't. And this time the congies fought together so it was bound to be a close fight. And AS knew it.
The situation is going to be the same in future also, and will unfold exactly the way it did in Bihar state elections if Cong, NCP and SS stick together in the next elections too.
And the most ironical part of it is that
it will not be a surprise if BJP wants to form alliance again with SS at a later date exactly like they they have done with Nitish. Many had written obituary of Nitish long back and are doing the same for SS. But it's highly unlikely that the SS would fade away. Many are drawing anology with fate of CBN but its also notable to see what the status BJP has in Andhra after break up with him. It's a wishful thinking that all nationalistic hindutwawadi voters will desert SS and come to BJP.
It's going to be a long winter for BJP in Maharashtra, really a very very long one, once again.


Probably true. And given how important a state Maharashtra is, not good.
Also to be noted is what will happen in case riots etc happen. Usually the first thing Congress/NCP etc do is castrate the state police in way which completely gives the peacefools the reign. This will inevitably lead to some riots and then what will Shivsena do, given that they are usually the foot soldiers of Hindutva. Will it let peacefool reign over them?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 11 Nov 2019 15:22

If what Raj sir has written is true then it's unfortunate that alliance has broken. How much one man's greed to crown his son will cost 100 million people is yet to be seen. I have many issues with DF, wife's EJ visits and other singing flings, shani shignapur etc. But from what I read, he was not corrupt and got things done.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 11 Nov 2019 15:23

JDU despite being in NDA, keeps a “strategic silence” or does some nautanki on many key/hot topics. SS is a no different case ,and the talks about SS is trapped is wishful thinking...

And right now for BJP, it’s immediate concern has to keep its own MLAs united. Power and greed attracts many...

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 15:29

greatde wrote:JDU despite being in NDA, keeps a “strategic silence” or does some nautanki on many key/hot topics. SS is a no different case ,and the talks about SS is trapped is wishful thinking...

And right now for BJP, it’s immediate concern has to keep its own MLAs united. Power and greed attracts many...

:rotfl:

Man, JDU was always a sickular party very aware and aligned with sentiments of Muslims. The right question is why BJP did not get hurt by aligning with a Sickular party. :rotfl:

SS was openly Hindutva, infact going faaaaaaar to the right of BJP at times. Was more Kattar than kattar BJP for CON/Muslims and Liberals of India.

You can be a SS supporter but don't attempt such logical gymnastics that can be proven wrong in seconds on just facts and news clippings without even going into logic and argument.

The last line/highlight is pure Gold. Nothing gives you sentiment away like it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 11 Nov 2019 15:40

pankajs wrote:
greatde wrote:JDU despite being in NDA, keeps a “strategic silence” or does some nautanki on many key/hot topics. SS is a no different case ,and the talks about SS is trapped is wishful thinking...

And right now for BJP, it’s immediate concern has to keep its own MLAs united. Power and greed attracts many...

:rotfl:

Man JDU was always a sickular party. The right question is why BJP did not get hurt by aligning with a Sickular party. :rotfl:

SS was openly Hindutva, infact going faaaaaaar to the right of BJP at times. Was more Kattar than kattar BJP.

You can be a SS supporter but don't attempt such logical gymnastics that can be proven wrong in seconds on just facts and news clippings.


There are many Hindutva / RSS people who have switched sides and been accepted as long as BJP is stopped.... So this is not a new thing..

You are presenting the best case scenario for BJP, but its not so straight forward, and we ought to be practical about other scenarios...

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 11 Nov 2019 15:49

nits wrote:In all this what happens to BMC - will BJP take support back from SS there ?

They should. Snap all ties.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 11 Nov 2019 15:53

vimal wrote:Really?? Thacakrey of SS was picked out of nowhere by Congress to defeat Communists. They end where they started from. The whole Hindu thing is a facade and junk politics.

1960s India is very different from 1990s India. So is SS. Anyway, no point in discussing over spoilt milk. :)
pankajs wrote:Very short lived happiness.
Tell us who will compromise? SS on its hindutva or CON on its sickular policy? Or maybe both can stick to hindutva and sickularism both at the same time. Will be an interesting experiment to watch. First hint will come with the common minimum program document.
As far I can see, it is win win for BJP and loose loose for SS and CON. SS hindutva vote will migrate to BJP while CON's sickular vote will migrate to NCP.

SS already compromised with the alliance. We don't have to cling to the past. NCP gains most from this. BJP might gain in later phase. maybe after UP elections(?). Politics are not arithmetic. Have to see how this will turn out in future.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 11 Nov 2019 16:11

Meanwhile any update on Jharkhand elections ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 16:16

greatde wrote:
pankajs wrote: :rotfl:

Man JDU was always a sickular party. The right question is why BJP did not get hurt by aligning with a Sickular party. :rotfl:

SS was openly Hindutva, infact going faaaaaaar to the right of BJP at times. Was more Kattar than kattar BJP.

You can be a SS supporter but don't attempt such logical gymnastics that can be proven wrong in seconds on just facts and news clippings.


There are many Hindutva / RSS people who have switched sides and been accepted as long as BJP is stopped.... So this is not a new thing..

You are presenting the best case scenario for BJP, but its not so straight forward, and we ought to be practical about other scenarios...

I am sure you know from personal experience and I to have read a few confessions on twitter but very few. Attrition is the name of the game. However the key question is, Has BJP gained or lost overall All-India and in MH? The answer, sadly from your POV, is that BJP has gained. I am not sure of MH but in GE2019 Modi/BJP upped their vote share between 6-9%. That is proof enough for me that BJP's strategy is working AND it did its magic BEFORE BJP got to implement its core agenda!

Hindus are practical and focused on day to day, Hindutva-vadi not so much. That is the reason why Marathi manoos (Hindus) will not ditch SS while Hindutva-vadis will. Depending on how many SS supporters are Hindutva-vadi that many BJP will gain, Now that SS will move from far-right of BJP to the far-left of BJP. Simple.


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 16:22

syam wrote:
vimal wrote:Really?? Thacakrey of SS was picked out of nowhere by Congress to defeat Communists. They end where they started from. The whole Hindu thing is a facade and junk politics.

1960s India is very different from 1990s India. So is SS. Anyway, no point in discussing over spoilt milk. :)
pankajs wrote:Very short lived happiness.
Tell us who will compromise? SS on its hindutva or CON on its sickular policy? Or maybe both can stick to hindutva and sickularism both at the same time. Will be an interesting experiment to watch. First hint will come with the common minimum program document.
As far I can see, it is win win for BJP and loose loose for SS and CON. SS hindutva vote will migrate to BJP while CON's sickular vote will migrate to NCP.

SS already compromised with the alliance. We don't have to cling to the past. NCP gains most from this. BJP might gain in later phase. maybe after UP elections(?). Politics are not arithmetic. Have to see how this will turn out in future.

Not yet. The process has just started. Let the common minimum program be released to understand what kind of compromise has been made.

No one has to cling to the past. SS is moving from the right of BJP to the left of BJP. That will have consequences in that voters that stuck to it for that very reason will move to the next best place and that will now be BJP. How will BJP gain? Depends on the how many voted SS just for its being on the right of BJP.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 11 Nov 2019 16:35

Re Jharkhand Elections
Will SS campaign with NCP+Cong against BJP
They will have to shake hands with SP/BSP/RJD/Commies
interesting times ahead
There is a video of Balasaheb circulating on teetar never to join hands with Pawar
Will that come in handy to break SS in few weeks/months
Can Raj be trusted with inducements to head the new breakaway faction of SS+MNS??

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 11 Nov 2019 16:44

I am not sure, but is there any precedence for this scenario where an alliance was formed before election and then a partner broke away to form gov with aother party?

If not, then guv should have dissolved the assemble and called for fresh election citing immoral post election-alliance.

Let SS+NCP+Cong form alliance and fight fresh election. If BJP loses then be it. But at least mandate will be clear.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 16:48

abhijitm wrote:I am not sure, but is there any precedence for this scenario where an alliance was formed before election and then a partner broke away to form gov with aother party?

If not, then guv should have dissolved the assemble and called for fresh election citing immoral post election-alliance.

Why prevent SS form committing hara-kari is what BJP thinks. BJP is giving SS the long-rope especially when BJP has delivered on one key Hindutva plank.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 16:59

Some are saying chest pains.

Safe to assume the middle path and say that the pain is between the leg and the head :mrgreen:

what sort of leg pain requires three days of hospital admission


twitter


Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut admitted to Lilavati hospital due to complain of leg pain. He will undergo treatment here for the next three days.
http://zeenews.india.com/india/live-upd ... ss-2245385


It looks like the doctors have already assembled to handle the medical emergency

given the gravity of the situation, they may operate even without anesthesia.


Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 11 Nov 2019 17:21

pankajs wrote:Not yet. The process has just started. Let the common minimum program be released to understand what kind of compromise has been made.

Isn't it wonderful? ss is best example to understand the role of ideology in politics. pawar is really good politician.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chanakyaa » 11 Nov 2019 19:41

Beyond current drama, which bjp is playing well without blinking, MH politics is at a crossroad. With family led political parties (namely SS and NCP) nearing the expiration date, 2nd generation is busy keeping the status quo and the 3rd guaranteed to destroy it (like dear Pappu). Sharad Power is 78 years old, which means that next election related calling shots will be from the nursing home. With, Bal Thackery then UT and AT, it is slowly moving towards irrelevance. Bjp has nice shot at establishing strong institutional framework for strong leadership for the benefit of the state and future BJP pm.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kit » 11 Nov 2019 19:54

Wonder how an [un] holy alliance between the SS Congress and NCP can last though, i think this could well be the beginning of the end for SS.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kit » 11 Nov 2019 19:57

chetak wrote:Some are saying chest pains.

Safe to assume the middle path and say that the pain is between the leg and the head :mrgreen:

what sort of leg pain requires three days of hospital admission


twitter


Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut admitted to Lilavati hospital due to complain of leg pain. He will undergo treatment here for the next three days.
http://zeenews.india.com/india/live-upd ... ss-2245385


It looks like the doctors have already assembled to handle the medical emergency

given the gravity of the situation, they may operate even without anesthesia.


Image



maybe a deep vein thrombosis in the leg and a pulmonary embolism in the lungs (chest pain), quite treatable i think if detected early.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rony » 11 Nov 2019 20:47

Image
Image
Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nits » 11 Nov 2019 21:12

Governor rejects SS demand to give them 3 days to form Government; now he invites NCP to form gov...

Things are changing at a fast pace... Power games going on in full swing


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