2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 995951.cms
Now so much for SS conditions to form government with BJP
They are getting their own back?? :D
So they have to now specify that they are not with NDA and withdraw their Minister from the cabinet to be able to form the government in MH
In future scenario how will this affect BJP in MH
NCP+Cong+SS+MNS will they be able to form a mahagatbhandan against BJP
I know they all have inherent fault lines and core voter
how will they react to this unholy alliance for sheer greed and hunger for power!!
And also the hindu votes from this alliance will they transfer to BJP given the RJB verdict?? 8)
The election result is what it is, and the Sh!t Sena was fully expected to be a parasite....but Amit and Farnavis are playing a very good post-election game. By declining to form goremint, BJP has given the dorks Udhhav and Aditya an ever-longer rope to hang themselves. I am just amazed at the low intelligence of Uddhav. Now he is in the predicament that he has been shouting "Sena CM at any cost" for weeks...and recently it has emerged that NCP condition is that he has to formally leave the NDA and cut all ties with BJP, plus the Congis claim they will never support. Relax and enjoy the show. My wager is on Prez rule with BJP getting full majority in the next election. As for the "suffering people of MH", you get what you vote for.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

pankajs wrote:^^
If I am not mistake Pawar was called by ED. So while state government can withdraw consent for CBI probe it will not stop the ED.
And then there is NIA. Remember Dawood while Pawarful also was a terrorist. So NIA can always be invoked if necessary.

ED & NIA don't need state government consent.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Got this idea from SM

Kartarpur corridor is also demoralizing for Bakis and Kashmiri Islamist for the reason articulated by Maulana Diesel when he questioned the intentions of Dimran Niazi, who was talking war tak on Kashmir yet was collaborating with that Mudi on Kartarpur, basically hinting that Niazi was not sincere on Kashmir or had abandoned them.
KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

pankajs wrote:
pankajs wrote:^^
If I am not mistake Pawar was called by ED. So while state government can withdraw consent for CBI probe it will not stop the ED.
And then there is NIA. Remember Dawood while Pawarful also was a terrorist. So NIA can always be invoked if necessary.

ED & NIA don't need state government consent.
To be sure, Pawar is also skilfully playing what cards he has....the real battle here is between the BJP and NCP veterans...Uddhav and Aditya are total idiots and greenhorns.

By insisting on NDA exit by SS as a condition to even consider NCP support, Pawar is exploring the possibility of an opening to join the NDA after the SS stupidly bumps itself out. The lessons learned by Nitishwa and Chandranna can't be lost on him, whereas I doubt the SS dorks get it.

On the NDA side, the complete dominance at the national stage is the overpowering card that makes all other players very weak. The importance of the huge LS 2019 mandate is starkly seen in the present scenario. My guess is that NDA will negotiate tough...i.e., no promises to call off the ED/NIA hounds, no personal benefit for Pawar, but a lease of life for his party in future years. The best deal that Pawar can cut is for him to retire and cooperate in all corruption probes, while the next generation of NCP wallahs allies with NDA.

As for Congis, Modi and Shah already have them in their jaws...they have very limited chance to come out of this with anything in hand.

As I said, let's watch the game!
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

pankajs wrote:Got this idea from SM

Kartarpur corridor is also demoralizing for Bakis and Kashmiri Islamist for the reason articulated by Maulana Diesel when he questioned the intentions of Dimran Niazi, who was talking war tak on Kashmir yet was collaborating with that Mudi on Kartarpur, basically hinting that Niazi was not sincere on Kashmir or had abandoned them.
Seems this has its own hastag in bakistan #KartarpurIsKashmirSellOff
krishna_krishna
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by krishna_krishna »

PM Niazi in candid disclosure that in inviting MMS, if GOI try to stop him to make him a hero :

https://twitter.com/ragarwal/status/1193385687086579712


"Something about small men in big offices" total dehati aurat, calls DR. MMS "Manmohan", I wonder now what seculars will have to say this. RAW has birds inside deepest circles (or leaked by porki deep state ) another coupe :rotfl:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by fanne »

While there is need to be concerned about SS+NCP+COng+mns to come together against BJP, I would assume the situation could be more like UP than Bihar (where JDU and RJD have vote bank that will transfer, though not so much as in past). The SP voters will vote BJP where there is BSP candidate and BSP voters would vote BJP where there is SP candidate. I have hard time believing that SS voter will vote NCP or cong when there is no SS candidate and BJP is fighting. Similarly, how many NCP or Cong voter will vote SS when these parties are not fighting and BJP is.
Only difference with UP is that all these 3 parties have their core strength area that is mutually exclusive ( at least SS and NCP). It would be fun to watch the daily contradiction. I have a feeling that cong will pull off support within a year because of these contradictions
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by shravanp »

Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.
What to do? The people of MH will get what they voted for.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

KL Dubey wrote:By insisting on NDA exit by SS as a condition to even consider NCP support, Pawar is exploring the possibility of an opening to join the NDA after the SS stupidly bumps itself out. The lessons learned by Nitishwa and Chandranna can't be lost on him, whereas I doubt the SS dorks get it.
I just cannot figure out how Shiv Sena is willing to accept any humiliating terms & conditions to form the government and get the CM chair. I get a feeling that a lot of Hindutwavadi Shiv Sainiks would start moving to BJP camp. For Udhav and his son the sole aim is to sit in CM's chair at least once, and they are willing to disband the party after that.
shravanp wrote:They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.
They can a sabotage it once. But if the BJP propaganda machinery is strong enough it can clearly tell the Marathi Manoos that Shiv Sena has dumped them. And all said and done the harm SS can cause is limited to MH. They don't make a huge national level impact.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Deans »

The real cash cow for the SS has been the Mumbai municipal corporation where BJP provides support. If that support is withdrawn, it would be a very shaky combination of SS+Cong+NCP running the city. It would be interesting to see how the three would split seats in any future State or BMC election.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

I have been judging few generation loyal SS voters, they are not happy with whats going on, but they will never ditch SS and shift their vote to other party. I am guessing SS has done this homework knowing not many of their voters are fence sitters. So, whatever they do will be eventually forgiven.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kashi »

abhijitm wrote:I have been judging few generation loyal SS voters, they are not happy with whats going on, but they will never ditch SS and shift their vote to other party. I am guessing SS has done this homework knowing not many of their voters are fence sitters. So, whatever they do will be eventually forgiven.
Not to berate them at al, but that sounds like loyal INC voters.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Schmidt »

I think BJP should agree to rotational CM post but Insist on first shot and give SS the next turn
Use the time to eliminate the political leadership by legal means
Next elections fight on their own and get rid of SS as a political force in Maharashtra
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Raghunathgb »

Shivasena was starring at a slow death. In a way it was observing that bjp was eating shivasena slowly and eventually it would have killed it by next term if fadnavis alone ruled the government. I think shivasena made a right decision to demand for a CM post. Instead of guaranteed death by next term , they are trying new options. Even new option might not work and they might still vanish, however I think it is a right step by shivasena in trying to do last effort to save it's party.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Raghunathgb wrote:Shivasena was starring at a slow death. In a way it was observing that bjp was eating shivasena slowly and eventually it would have killed it by next term if fadnavis alone ruled the government. I think shivasena made a right decision to demand for a CM post. Instead of guaranteed death by next term , they are trying new options. Even new option might not work and they might still vanish, however I think it is a right step by shivasena in trying to do last effort to save it's party.
Yes, Abhi nahin to kabhi nahin was a well understood point, both by SS and others. But this too won't save them.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Schmidt wrote:I think BJP should agree to rotational CM post but Insist on first shot and give SS the next turn
Use the time to eliminate the political leadership by legal means
Next elections fight on their own and get rid of SS as a political force in Maharashtra
This is not just about MH but rest of the states too, eg Haryana.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.
Such a conflicted government won't last long.

BJP too must have done all the scenario analysis. Utlimate winner will be BJP & NCP at the cost of SS & CON.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.
this is just a SS pressure tactic in their game of hardball.

They can always join back because the BJP did not tell them to go.

I think that they may still be hoping that the BJP comes back.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kittoo »

chetak wrote:
shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.
this is just a SS pressure tactic in their game of hardball.

They can always join back because the BJP did not tell them to go.

I think that they may still be hoping that the BJP comes back.
I read on Twitter by some news account that Shiv Sena will officially quit NDA today. I dont think its a pressure tactic. I think they are hell bent on their own destruction.
Vinash kale viprit budhhi and all.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by BSR Murthy »

https://twitter.com/abhijitmajumder/sta ... 96352?s=20
Shiv Sena may have triggered beginning of its end.
* Uddhav is now king blinded by love for son
* Congress-NCP pact will wreck Hindutva base, come as betrayal of Bal Thackeray to core Marathi voters
* Claiming CM post as distant 2nd is wrong
* Shah’s full predator mode activated
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

Is SS trying to be too clever by half. If I am not mistaken, NCP's demand was that they severe links with BJP/NDA, and SS MP resigns from the NDA cabinet at the center. Now SS has acceded to the second, but is it trying to have the cake and eat it too by staying put in the NDA as an insurance? BJP should probably thrown them SS out. Good riddance. What a disgusting dynastic entitlement being enacted by SS.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

kittoo wrote:
chetak wrote:
this is just a SS pressure tactic in their game of hardball.

They can always join back because the BJP did not tell them to go.

I think that they may still be hoping that the BJP comes back.
I read on Twitter by some news account that Shiv Sena will officially quit NDA today. I dont think its a pressure tactic. I think they are hell bent on their own destruction.
Vinash kale viprit budhhi and all.
If they are so hell bent on following a different path, there is surely a deeper malaise and the BJP, disciplined though it may be, is too quiet.

If the SS do cobble up a majority, then the bihari lot with nitishwa will revolt next.

The role of prashant kishore is like that of a well entrenched termite eating away at the innards. This evil character has been running his own agenda from day one. He has helped out all interests inimical to the BJP and Hindutva. Bengal, AP, Bihar, and now MAH. All states where abrahamic forces are making a desperate bid for primacy.



At stake are the RS seats.
Last edited by chetak on 11 Nov 2019 11:41, edited 1 time in total.
chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

CRamS wrote:Is SS trying to be too clever by half. If I am not mistaken, NCP's demand was that they severe links with BJP/NDA, and SS MP resigns from the NDA cabinet at the center. Now SS has acceded to the second, but is it trying to have the cake and eat it too by staying put in the NDA as an insurance? BJP should probably thrown them SS out. Good riddance. What a disgusting dynastic entitlement being enacted by SS.
If the SS stays in the NDA, the BJP will let them but they will ignore them completely.

na ghar ka, na ghat ka.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

On Maharashtra politics

1. BJP wanted the alliance to be broken by SS to avoid the charge of backstabbing. No matter what the SS says, in the public eyes, it broke the hindutva alliance. That leaves BJP free to do its own thing without worrying about handing SS an emotive issue.

2. Will be interesting to watch out for the "common minimum program" document for the alliance. Will it have hindutva elements or will it not? Will it have sickular elements or will it not?

CON/Left almost always insists for common minimum program as part of an alliance. Will be interesting what the CON forces the SS to accept as part of common minimum program. I am going to watch out for that.

3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by syam »

In a way, ss is first saffron party to fall. it is win win for anti-bjp folks.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

syam wrote:In a way, ss is first saffron party to fall. it is win win for anti-bjp folks.
Really?? Thacakrey of SS was picked out of nowhere by Congress to defeat Communists. They end where they started from. The whole Hindu thing is a facade and junk politics.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

syam wrote:In a way, ss is first saffron party to fall. it is win win for anti-bjp folks.
Very short lived happiness.

Tell us who will compromise? SS on its hindutva or CON on its sickular policy? Or maybe both can stick to hindutva and sickularism both at the same time. Will be an interesting experiment to watch. First hint will come with the common minimum program document.

As far I can see, it is win win for BJP and loose loose for SS and CON. SS hindutva vote will migrate to BJP while CON's sickular vote will migrate to NCP.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by greatde »

Sickular votes are completely united in stopping BJP. Will happily vote any XYZ. They know SS is a dynasty party and putra- moh is all that matters. As long as Thackarary gets their desired piece of cake, they will dance to their tunes...
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

greatde wrote:Sickular votes are completely united in stopping BJP. Will happily vote any XYZ. They know SS is a dynasty party and putra- moh is all that matters. As long as Thackarary gets their desired piece of cake, they will dance to their tunes...
SS will be opposed by migrants which it viciously targeted at one time and no one has forgotten that part of the SS's rise.

Migrants form a very considerable part of the urban vote in MAH.

Beedis not included.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

greatde wrote:Sickular votes are completely united in stopping BJP. Will happily vote any XYZ. They know SS is a dynasty party and putra- moh is all that matters. As long as Thackarary gets their desired piece of cake, they will dance to their tunes...
I am not disputing the first part but understand it's implications!

The sickulars will migrate to the NCP from CON because it is the strongest party best positioned to defeat BJP.

So the CON will try to counter that by insisting on sickular garuntee from SS in a common minimum program document.

IF the SS does that, what will it do to its ideological base of hindutva? This may be 10 or 5 or 2 or 1 % but what choice will they have but to migrate to the BJP.

Net net, BJP will gain at the expense of SS and NCP at the expense of CON.

1st level analysis is easy but one must go further to 2nd and 3rd level analysis.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

pankajs wrote: 3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.
In pure context of MH:
There are many grey areas when it comes to hindu pride and "hindutva". A hindu, a proud hindu or devotional hindu, he doesn't automatically become BJP voter. Similarly rural hindus vote for NCP/Cong are not hinduphobe or islamists. Maharashtrian society is very religious down to villages. When we move from urban middile class society to towns and villages then the dynamic shifts.

As I said earlier, these NCP, Cong leaders have set up their tents way before BJP came along. Their votes are not based on ideological alignment but alignment to the ecosystem and benefits coming out of it. For example, a lady I know has her kid educated in Sharad pawar's school, now learning in Sharad Pawar's college. These instututes create future voters. Just start searching by list of institutions SP has founded, is board member. The list is big. SP is now completing medical college in baramati. This is many years of work. People within this ecosystem will vote for SP, whether he is in NCP or Cong. Hence NCP retained its hold even after splitting from Cong.

Lets say voters in baramati vote to a BJP MLA. Now what? SP and his clan is not going to go away. Who will be the troubleshooter in Baramati region? BJP MLA? No. These baramati people will have to go to pawars for all sorts of help. That BJP MLA is not going to create an alternative ecosystem overnight or take over SP's ecosystem. So voters will always think from that angle and vote.

Shivaji Maharaj freed Maharashtra from invaders and thereby lifted baggage of guilt on future MH generations. Unlike north which bore the maximum brunt of invaders, MH became free of it. Hence there is no inner need for MH hindus at village level to united for common cause. They however remain devotional hindus. The need came in 1993 and hindus in Mumbai united under SS.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

abhijitm wrote:
pankajs wrote: 3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.
In pure context of MH:
There are many grey areas when it comes to hindu pride and "hindutva". A hindu, a proud hindu or devotional hindu, he doesn't automatically become BJP voter. Similarly rural hindus vote for NCP/Cong are not hinduphobe or islamists. Maharashtrian society is very religious down to villages. When we move from urban middile class society to towns and villages then the dynamic shifts.

As I said earlier, these NCP, Cong leaders have set up their tents way before BJP came along. Their votes are not based on ideological alignment but alignment to the ecosystem and benefits coming out of it. For example, a lady I know has her kid educated in Sharad pawar's school, now learning in Sharad Pawar's college. These instututes create future voters. Just start searching by list of institutions SP has founded, is board member. The list is big. SP is now completing medical college in baramati. This is many years of work. People within this ecosystem will vote for SP, whether he is in NCP or Cong. Hence NCP retained its hold even after splitting from Cong.

Lets say voters in baramati vote to a BJP MLA. Now what? SP and his clan is not going to go away. Who will be the troubleshooter in Baramati region? BJP MLA? No. These baramati people will have to go to pawars for all sorts of help. That BJP MLA is not going to create an alternative ecosystem overnight or take over SP's ecosystem. So voters will always think from that angle and vote.

Shivaji Maharaj freed Maharashtra from invaders and thereby lifted baggage of guilt on future MH generations. Unlike north which bore the maximum brunt of invaders, MH became free of it. Hence there is no inner need for MH hindus at village level to united for common cause. They however remain devotional hindus. The need came in 1993 and hindus in Mumbai united under SS.
My post was about "SS .. sinking"

If you read my post just above, you will see that I think BJP will gain at the expense of SS and NCP at the cost of CON. Net net BJP and NCP will gain at the expense of SS and CON.

I am only taking of ideological, both hindutva and sickular, voters shifting to more committed (BJP) / capable (NCP) parties. Now whether such voters are 1% or 50% of the respective party base, I have no clue.

Nowhere do I suggest that Hindus traditionally voting for NCP/CON will suddenly shift to BJP. Where did you read that?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

pankajs wrote:
abhijitm wrote: In pure context of MH:
There are many grey areas when it comes to hindu pride and "hindutva". A hindu, a proud hindu or devotional hindu, he doesn't automatically become BJP voter. Similarly rural hindus vote for NCP/Cong are not hinduphobe or islamists. Maharashtrian society is very religious down to villages. When we move from urban middile class society to towns and villages then the dynamic shifts.

As I said earlier, these NCP, Cong leaders have set up their tents way before BJP came along. Their votes are not based on ideological alignment but alignment to the ecosystem and benefits coming out of it. For example, a lady I know has her kid educated in Sharad pawar's school, now learning in Sharad Pawar's college. These instututes create future voters. Just start searching by list of institutions SP has founded, is board member. The list is big. SP is now completing medical college in baramati. This is many years of work. People within this ecosystem will vote for SP, whether he is in NCP or Cong. Hence NCP retained its hold even after splitting from Cong.

Lets say voters in baramati vote to a BJP MLA. Now what? SP and his clan is not going to go away. Who will be the troubleshooter in Baramati region? BJP MLA? No. These baramati people will have to go to pawars for all sorts of help. That BJP MLA is not going to create an alternative ecosystem overnight or take over SP's ecosystem. So voters will always think from that angle and vote.

Shivaji Maharaj freed Maharashtra from invaders and thereby lifted baggage of guilt on future MH generations. Unlike north which bore the maximum brunt of invaders, MH became free of it. Hence there is no inner need for MH hindus at village level to united for common cause. They however remain devotional hindus. The need came in 1993 and hindus in Mumbai united under SS.
My post was about "SS .. sinking"

If you read my post just above, you will see that I think BJP will gain at the expense of SS and NCP at the cost of CON. Net net BJP and NCP will gain at the expense of SS and CON.

I am only taking of ideological, both hindutva and sickular, voters shifting to more committed (BJP) / capable (NCP) parties.

Nowhere do I suggest that Hindus traditionally voting for NCP/CON will suddenly shift to BJP. Where did you read that?
In your point 3 you were trying distinction between secular/hindu votes. I tried to explain the grey area.
This "E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters."
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

pankajs wrote:On Maharashtra politics

1. BJP wanted the alliance to be broken by SS to avoid the charge of backstabbing. No matter what the SS says, in the public eyes, it broke the hindutva alliance. That leaves BJP free to do its own thing without worrying about handing SS an emotive issue.

2. Will be interesting to watch out for the "common minimum program" document for the alliance. Will it have hindutva elements or will it not? Will it have sickular elements or will it not?

CON/Left almost always insists for common minimum program as part of an alliance. Will be interesting what the CON forces the SS to accept as part of common minimum program. I am going to watch out for that.

3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.
I though I was clear enough but still let me clarify ...

There are Hindus, there are Hindutva-vadis and then there are Uber-Hindu-vadis.

Hindus = Roti / Kapda / Makan / Sadak/ Bijli / Pani / Security (mostly secular issues) + Cultural pride but NO assertion( Content with status quo on culture)
Hindutva-vadis = Hindus + Cultural assertion (Not content with status quo on culture)

Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.

So the migration of Hindutva-vadis can ONLY happen from SS to BJP but not from NCP+CON because obviously NO Hindutva-vadis vote for them!

Added Later: Sickular are ALL non-Hindus and a segment of Hindus who dislike BJP/RSS politics. Them migrating to BJP is out of question. They will migrate to the stronger of NCP and CON when faced with choice with their agenda of defeating BJP. So I expect CON to NCP migration.
Last edited by pankajs on 11 Nov 2019 13:22, edited 1 time in total.
Vikas
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.
Morally UT might be wrong but Politically he is making the right move. His Party would end up with single digits in few years as BJP expands its base. His moment of life is now or never. This is his time to become CM and carve throne for his son before it is too late.
I will not condemn UT though I am disappointed. We did not vote for Congress/NCP to come back to power thru back channels.
SS led govt now will have its own challenges of running state while they were always about Marathi Manoos. Now what will they do about non-Marathi manoos ? Hindutava can be put on back burner as MH doesn't have any major communal tension simmering underneath atleast for now.
Running a govt can be tricky and treacherous though but not impossible. SS doesn't has vote bank spread across MH unlike BJP or NCP+Cong so they will simply exist as long as they don't upset the applecart.

It is not very hard to see NCP and SS together (Congress in the tow) as politics is all of convenience and interests. Will it help NCP or SS or BJP will be decided during next elections. Till then everyone can exists under the Sun.
Regional Political parties have been known to flirt, romance and then back stab these days. Doubt if voters really give a damn about it. I also don't think that current gen of voters is committed to any political party or ideology.
Meanwhile for BJP, it will go back to drawing board and plan for next state elections. SS has fired first shot, it ain't the end of war. You don't cross AS, call him a liar and live happily ever after.
Congress gets some more wind in its tattered sail while everyone waits with bated breath for the end of Pawar era and then vultures will land. may happen tomorrow or may not happen till 2024.
Last edited by Vikas on 11 Nov 2019 13:29, edited 1 time in total.
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Vikas wrote:Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.
Simple .. will SS celebrate the Ram temple court victory or not? Will they participate in the building of the Ram temple of not?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sum »

Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.
Simple glance of K'taka in the last yr with JD(S)-INC should be enough where the ideologies were not even as different as in this case where they seem diametric to each other.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by greatde »

pankajs wrote:Hindutva-vadis will NOT accept SS diluting on hindutva to just for the sake of being in power and will migrate to BJP. It must be obvious by now that there are Hindus who vote NCP+CON but there are NO Hindutva-vadis who vote for NCP+CON.
If that was the case, then why are SS leaders joining hands with NCP+Con in the first place? Its not a simple black & white picture. There are many factors including personal interests. If what you said is true, there should be huge internal rebellion right now within SS. But its arent happening.

Right now, BJP is only gaining a moral high ground but that means nothing if you are not in power.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

pankajs wrote:
Vikas wrote:Why do gentle Rakshaks here think that SS led govt would fall within a year. If everyone is making money, why would they squabble to the extent that the govt falls. I think if SS forms the govt with NCL+Cong, they easily can sail for next 3-4 years despite all the wishful thinking here.
Simple .. will SS celebrate the Ram temple court victory or not? Will they participate in the building of the Ram temple of not?
pankajs, SS will play on both sides of the divide now. They will suddenly go on mute about Hindutva except for few articles in Samana. Don't forget the Cong/NCP need SS as much as they need them. So both sides will take Janta as a fool for next few years.
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