2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 22:13

Bhell .. bhell ... that is why the Governor waited till the very last to call for government formation so that he could rush through the list with a looming deadline for Governers rule. There is zimply no time to give SS a further 3 days to get its ducks lined up!

Well done BJP/NCP.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 11 Nov 2019 22:17

Will BJP/NCP ultimately form the government
Without SS NCP/CONg can’t form the government
SS now feel aggrieved and may not support the NCP

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 22:19

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/ma ... 81397.html

Nov 11, 2019 9:15 pm (IST)

BJP sources say they are still waiting and watching and it is not over yet as people of Maharashtra will see "who works in their interest and who is only power hungry".

BJP wanted SS to make a play for the unholy alliance. This is as clear as it can be.

Now IF SS does decide to back-off from the unholy alliance, its negotiating power with the BJP would have been destroyed with just this one maneuver.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 11 Nov 2019 22:20

chetak wrote:SS couldn't make it in time to meet the governor's deadline. They did not have support letters from either the NCP or the congress.

they have been booted out of the race.

Surely, if SS can get some written assurances of support from NCP-CON, the governor is bound to accept it? Same case with BJP, if they get back SS support and can stake claim? This isn't a solid deadline...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 22:21

Rsatchi wrote:Will BJP/NCP ultimately form the government
Without SS NCP/CONg can’t form the government
SS now feel aggrieved and may not support the NCP

SS negotiating power with BJP has been destroyed by luring it make a play for the unholy alliance. BJP played the SS. Check my last post.

Either SS becomes the doormat for NCP or the doormat for BJP. That is exactly the choice it has been left with. Apologies for the strong word.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 22:25

greatde wrote:
chetak wrote:SS couldn't make it in time to meet the governor's deadline. They did not have support letters from either the NCP or the congress.

they have been booted out of the race.
Surely, if SS can get some written assurances of support from NCP-CON, the governor is bound to accept it? Same case with BJP, if they get back SS support and can stake claim? This isn't a solid deadline...

The offer is with NCP now. The choice with SS is to go with NCP or not. After that CON will be asked and then President's rule. All done nicely and process followed to the dot. BJP is walking the state towards Presidents rule.

IF SS does not like the deal offered by the NCP or CON, believe me they will NOT like what BJP will offer then NOW. SS got played by the BJP.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2019 22:27

pankajs wrote:https://www.news18.com/news/politics/ma ... 81397.html
Nov 11, 2019 9:15 pm (IST)

BJP sources say they are still waiting and watching and it is not over yet as people of Maharashtra will see "who works in their interest and who is only power hungry".
BJP wanted SS to make a play for the unholy alliance. This is as clear as it can be.

Now IF SS does decide to back-off from the unholy alliance, its negotiating power with the BJP would have been destroyed with just this one maneuver.

The BJP has also been forever absolved of any obligation of seat sharing with the SS for any election henceforth.

the son and the grandson have not inherited any political smarts from the grandfather.

No more meetings ever in matoshri.

beggars cannot be choosers, they can only be loosers

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 11 Nov 2019 22:27

pankajs wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:Will BJP/NCP ultimately form the government
Without SS NCP/CONg can’t form the government
SS now feel aggrieved and may not support the NCP
SS negotiating power with BJP has been destroyed by luring it make a play for the unholy alliance. BJP played the SS. Check my last post.

Either SS becomes the doormat for NCP or the doormat for BJP. That is exactly the choice it has been left with. Apologies for the strong word.

Yes that’s true in a way
Even if they join the alliance no Deputy CM
No plum portfolios
Can claim to be in power that’s about it

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 22:31

chetak wrote:The BJP has also been forever absolved of any obligation of seat sharing with the SS for any election henceforth.

the son and the grandson have not inherited any political smarts from the grandfather.

No more meetings ever in matoshri.

beggars cannot be choosers, they can only be loosers

This is what killed them i.e. ego. UT expected a vizit by AS to hammer out an agreement on HIS terms. Guess what, AS decided to poke his ego and kept off. Thus incited, SS walked into a carefully arraigned trap by the BJP/NCP.

Now, SS has no leverage with BJP after they walked out on them. SS better seal a deal with NCP/CON and fast. BJP wants to impose presidents rule AND that is the reason it waited so long. The timing is all the proof that is needed that is BJPs play.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 11 Nov 2019 22:42

IMHO, shiv sena would be best served by shutting their mouth for next few years and coming back to BJP on BJPs terms. Perhaps focus on construction of Ram mandir and raise heat on Kashi/Mathura to atone their sins.
With BJP they will float like iron hook on a wooden log. WIth congress they will sink like a iron hook attached to a steel chain. Hindutva vadi votes or not, the practicality of their histrionics will cost them. It was all their making and BJP by their silence brought them to the cliff. They're yet to jump from the cliff by end of this week (or earlier) it would be clear how self destructive they are

nits · Post by **nits** » 11 Nov 2019 22:49

and in process also loose 1 central ministry they had, BJP shd also take support back from BMCC - the cash cow

PK is not such a bad planner and is not in scheme of things

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2019 22:50

ArjunPandit wrote:IMHO, shiv sena would be best served by shutting their mouth for next few years and coming back to BJP on BJPs terms. Perhaps focus on construction of Ram mandir and raise heat on Kashi/Mathura to atone their sins.
With BJP they will float like iron hook on a wooden log. WIth congress they will sink like a iron hook attached to a steel chain. Hindutva vadi votes or not, the practicality of their histrionics will cost them. It was all their making and BJP by their silence brought them to the cliff. They're yet to jump from the cliff by end of this week (or earlier) it would be clear how self destructive they are

the SS guys will soon start to desert the party and try to find a home in the BJP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 23:02

Now understand, who made the SS withdraw from NDA? AND after that no letter of support and no more time to conjure up the alliance!

Wah Wah! what jugalbandi.

Looks like choreographed between BJP/NCP.

Added Later: On India Today, a MH jurno was calling Pawar as the sutradhar and I was

. One can easily trace the downfall of SS from the time the results were in. They thought they could railroad BJP into making a substantial offer over and above what they deserved. AS set the ball rolling by pokeing the ego of UT. Rest is carefully laid out script.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 11 Nov 2019 23:07

Time to open enquiry on BMC contracts.

syam · Post by **syam** » 11 Nov 2019 23:12

I thought SS, NCP and congress made a deal already. Some one took SS for a ride and now they are left with egg on their face. Seriously, they need some good political adviser.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 11 Nov 2019 23:13

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Nov 2019 23:18

chetak wrote:The NCP insisted that a "senior" SS leader should become the CM.

It's very possible that some guy with leg pain may have pitched himself as that senior SS leader to the NCP and "suggested" that he be named as the preferred senior leader to the SS leadership by pawarful people

the son was immediately replaced by the father as the CM candidate.

was raut then rauted.

Raut was routed!

I heard UT unloaded on him for the mess (miscalculation and intemperate language) and poor guy ended up in hospital.

To me looks like BJP+NCP+INC decided to sacrifice SS.

Now SS is left high and dry and its MLAs will defect to where ever power is there.

One dot to be remembered is Ahmed Patel talking to Nitin Gadkari last week and lost in the RJMB verdict.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2019 23:22

chetak wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:IMHO, shiv sena would be best served by shutting their mouth for next few years and coming back to BJP on BJPs terms. Perhaps focus on construction of Ram mandir and raise heat on Kashi/Mathura to atone their sins.
With BJP they will float like iron hook on a wooden log. WIth congress they will sink like a iron hook attached to a steel chain. Hindutva vadi votes or not, the practicality of their histrionics will cost them. It was all their making and BJP by their silence brought them to the cliff. They're yet to jump from the cliff by end of this week (or earlier) it would be clear how self destructive they are
the SS guys will soon start to desert the party and try to find a home in the BJP.

here we go

watch the video.

Act 2, scene 2 .......... the plot thickens

News18 India Verified account @News18India

#BREAKING बीजेपी के संपर्क में शिवसेना के 25 विधायक, शिवसेना के विधायकों में मतभेद की खबर
@KishoreAjwani

https://twitter.com/News18India/status/ ... 4742842371

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 11 Nov 2019 23:35

^^it is quite logical..for ss guys to find home in BJP. there were talks initially. SS has been waiting to implode with the incompetent. I was always intrigued by the lack of airtime on RT ..who knows that might come out..he ticks many boxes...

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2019 23:37

ramana wrote:
chetak wrote:The NCP insisted that a "senior" SS leader should become the CM.

It's very possible that some guy with leg pain may have pitched himself as that senior SS leader to the NCP and "suggested" that he be named as the preferred senior leader to the SS leadership by pawarful people

the son was immediately replaced by the father as the CM candidate.

was raut then rauted.

Raut was routed!

I heard UT unloaded on him for the mess (miscalculation and intemperate language) and poor guy ended up in hospital.

To me looks like BJP+NCP+INC decided to sacrifice SS.

Now SS is left high and dry and its MLAs will defect to where ever power is there.

One dot to be remembered is Ahmed Patel talking to Nitin Gadkari last week and lost in the RJMB verdict.

ramana saar,

take a look at this

twitter

Provide more security at Lilawati

twitter

I will again say this picture before going to hospital is self explanatory !

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2019 23:42

ArjunPandit wrote:^^it is quite logical..for ss guys to find home in BJP. there were talks initially. SS has been waiting to implode with the incompetent. I was always intrigued by the lack of airtime on RT ..who knows that might come out..he ticks many boxes...

the word is that apart from the obligatory family functions, they are barely on talking terms.

he is not in the loop.

this whole fiasco started because UT was ultra keen to cement his weak line of succession. Everyone knows that BT's political smarts did not get passed on to these guys.

RT is like a fox in their henhouse.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 23:48

Most CON supporters still don't get it
https://twitter.com/purohitvaibhav/stat ... 4793107456

Vaibhav Purohit @purohitvaibhav
Amit Shah wanted to end NCP in Maharashtra Sharad Pawar finished BJP SS govt and alliance. #MaharashtraPoliticalCrisis

But some do but not the full picture ..
https://twitter.com/NadeemNusrath1/stat ... 0693891072

Nadeem Nusrath @NadeemNusrath1
And if @INCIndia supports Shiv Sena pawar and Shah will finish Cong not only in Mah but in UP and Bihar too ?

And this
https://twitter.com/shammybaweja/status ... 7398852608

Harinder Baweja @shammybaweja

Difficult to stomach that the @INCIndia may lend support to @ShivSena. Why have parties, ideologies, manifestos, leaders? If this, why not lend support to @BJP4India?

BJP+NCP plan to finish both SS and CON.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Nov 2019 23:56

https://twitter.com/CNNnews18/status/11 ... 7318113281

News18 @CNNnews18

#JustIn – Uddhav Thackeray has left Matoshree. He is likely to meet NCP chief Sharad Pawar.

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1193792250221711360

iMac_too @iMac_too

Hehe ... he was adamant Shah should meet him at Matoshri. Now himself goes to Fox's den

THIS is what started it as I pointed out before.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 12 Nov 2019 00:03

so basically ahuti of SS as we know it of shiv sena for vadh of congress...
(let's not forget BTs role ..my inlaws can never thank SS enough for their help in '92 and the floods)

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 12 Nov 2019 00:05

I still believe that bjp and looser SS will come together. I wouldn't be surprised if track 2, 3 conversations by SS with Gadkari has already started. Re-election or gov rule does't help anyone execpt change percentages by few points. BMC is still controlled by bjp and SS. And, BMC is a big deal. The only advantage for disassociating SS is that its stronghold on the BMC can be loosened by some quality audits.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 12 Nov 2019 00:10

ArjunPandit wrote:so basically ahuti of SS as we know it of shiv sena for vadh of congress...
(let's not forget BTs role ..my inlaws can never thank SS enough for their help in '92 and the floods)

General stratehy has been to damage and absorb allies, encourage regional Congress offshoots to weaken Congress so Congress can't have power across the Nation. Unfortunately, regardless of how this play out, MH elections shows limits of BJP and Congress inroads back into what is Saffron belt (Raj, Guj, MP, CG, now MH).

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Nov 2019 00:14

From what I am seeing, there are only 3 political parties in Maharashtra:
1. Indian Naxal Con ("Vatical" aka Rahul)
2. Indian Naxal Con ("Hindu" aka BJP)
3. Indian Naxal Con ("xenophobic" aka SS)

All corrupt, pompous, incompetent (except at backstabbing) creeps. No wonder Mumbai cricket team also loses these days. Why can't India's richest and most dynamic city insist on better governance than these?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 00:15

https://twitter.com/IamIconoclast/statu ... 5522369536

Chintamani @IamIconoclast

Tiger with tail between legs: Uddhav Thackeray who would expect even Modi and Amit Shah to come to Matoshree went to have lunch with Sharad Pawar at a 5 star hotel!! What next - agree to Islamic State in Maharashtra?

Many folks noted this strange behavior BUT it also proved their downfall. AS used UT's own ego against him and pushed him on the path to destruction.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Nov 2019 00:17

And this in the land where Mumtaz and Rajesh Khanna pranced around singing:

Woh chor hai!
Usko vote na dena!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Nov 2019 00:25

RT.com:

Indian PM Narendra Modi’s governing party has suffered a big setback in western Maharashtra state after its longtime ally broke away and joined two other parties to form the new state government, AP reports. The Shiv Sena split with Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party on Monday and decided to form a coalition government with the BJP’s key opponents, the Congress party and National Congress Party. Modi’s party won the most seats in Maharashtra state elections last month and was expected to retain power in the state, home to India’s financial capital, Mumbai. After talks between the two allies failed, they parted ways, dealing the first major political blow to Modi’s party after it retained national power in a May general election.

A people's revolt is needed to sweep away the Goon Power Structure of Maharashtra. How are these guys any better than Haji Mastaan, Dawood Ibrahim, Jinnah and such other famed Maharastrians?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 12 Nov 2019 00:29

^^ dont you think that in the priority of fires to douse (read wb, kerela, TN) this one is still comes later...

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 12 Nov 2019 00:45

One thing that irritates me and inarticulate loud-mouths pro-BJP spokesman like Geeta Bhat are unable to answer is this. All those who are laughing at BJP ask why is BJP hypocritical pointing to ideological difference between SS and Congoons + NCP, when BJP formed alliance with PDP "just to grab power'. This is total BS. BJP did not form alliance with PDP for 'grabbing power'. They did it because J&K is a sensitive state and were hoping to turn things around by moderating PDP. Unfortunately, the PDP traitors were dancing to ISI tunes, and BJP broke off alliance. Where is the comparison, I don't know.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 12 Nov 2019 00:52

How Modi outwitted Rao's Babri Masjid calculation.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 12 Nov 2019 00:52

Ulan, I completely disagree. Fandavis is a fantastic leader. Its unfair to compare him and BJP with the rest of the rif raff.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Nov 2019 01:02

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/IamIconoclast/statu ... 5522369536
Chintamani @IamIconoclast

Tiger with tail between legs: Uddhav Thackeray who would expect even Modi and Amit Shah to come to Matoshree went to have lunch with Sharad Pawar at a 5 star hotel!! What next - agree to Islamic State in Maharashtra?
Many folks noted this strange behavior BUT it also proved their downfall. AS used UT's own ego against him and pushed him on the path to destruction.

what if the NCP still offers the CM's post to UT.

What if all three, NCP, Congi and SS have a very rosy and an iceberg type of common minimum program where 9/10th of the iceberg is below the surface and invisible to the gullible public while only the very visible 1/10 part of the CMP is like god's gift to humanity, only much better, all beautifully packaged, just for the sake of PR.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Nov 2019 01:14

CRamS wrote:One thing that irritates me and inarticulate loud-mouths pro-BJP spokesman like Geeta Bhat are unable to answer is this. All those who are laughing at BJP ask why is BJP hypocritical pointing to ideological difference between SS and Congoons + NCP, when BJP formed alliance with PDP "just to grab power'. This is total BS. BJP did not form alliance with PDP for 'grabbing power'. They did it because J&K is a sensitive state and were hoping to turn things around by moderating PDP. Unfortunately, the PDP traitors were dancing to ISI tunes, and BJP broke off alliance. Where is the comparison, I don't know.

another version goes that the BJP did it because they were able to get into the govt to access and read all the files and prepare a solid ground for the removal of art 370 and 35A and also to ferret and root out all the hidden from the public misuse of govt privilege, especially those profiting cashmeri politicos.

and when done, they pulled the plug in the most unexpected way.

mehbooba is a known jehadi of long standing who was barely reigned in and kept in check because of her more cautious father.

with the father gone, mehbooba was unshackled and she started playing up her paki preferences and poisonous agenda.

her crass and uncouth pro paki behavior rubbed many in her own party the wrong way.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 01:19

SS/NCP/CON should try that just for fun. As far I am concerned the end result will still be the same i.e chaos in the alliance. Will the SS, in company of NCP/CON, denounce it own hand in the destruction of the Babri structure? Or will they participate in building the new RJB Ram Mandir?

There are so many flip-flops that SS and CON will have to make that it will look ridiculous and destroy all their credibility. That is what the end game per BJP/NCP is.

dsreedhar · Post by **dsreedhar** » 12 Nov 2019 01:24

CRamS wrote:One thing that irritates me and inarticulate loud-mouths pro-BJP spokesman like Geeta Bhat are unable to answer is this. All those who are laughing at BJP ask why is BJP hypocritical pointing to ideological difference between SS and Congoons + NCP, when BJP formed alliance with PDP "just to grab power'. This is total BS. BJP did not form alliance with PDP for 'grabbing power'. They did it because J&K is a sensitive state and were hoping to turn things around by moderating PDP. Unfortunately, the PDP traitors were dancing to ISI tunes, and BJP broke off alliance. Where is the comparison, I don't know.

Absolutely. It is not for power grab but to get a say n some control in the govt of a sensitive state.

syam · Post by **syam** » 12 Nov 2019 01:27

Let's check the numbers,
56(ss)+54(ncp)+44(con) = 154
105(bjp)+15(others) = 120

not looking good for the alliance. atleast 10 guys will jump the ship. my alt theory is, ncp through their moles, wooed ss. both thought they can form gov with con support. con also played along and made necessary sounds. in last minute, it gave hand. lol. . every one played politics.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Nov 2019 01:30

BTW, one funny thing I have observed on the forum and the SM is that NO one, including myself, is talking about the credibility of NCP getting destroyed by the unholy alliance of SS/NCP/CON.

Why? What is the secret of the pawarful hanji?