2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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ritesh
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ritesh » 12 Nov 2019 20:00

nachiket wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Thought occur to me but SP is shrewd enough to understand political somersaults. There is no guarantee that bjp and SS will not form alliance again with this time a better understanding of power sharing. If they do then NCP gamed. Because both SS and BJP will go after them with full vengeance.

Which BJP voter is going to go out and vote for a SS candidate again after this betrayal? Most are very angry right now that their vote might end up going to Pawar when they wanted Fadnavis. SS has lost those voters already. There is no way they can hope to fight the next elections together.

Absolutely true. Vote transfer in next few election will not happen at all even if they both agree to fight together.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 12 Nov 2019 20:01

SBajwa wrote:
chetak wrote:
after white vaisty's tihar sojourn, all bets are off.

Many gasbags, big bang, phone wielding, speed dialling dilli lawyers are very very quiet.

Squarely in the crosshairs of the sniper scope are several prominent personages from both the congis and NCP. Some court-mandated FIRs have already been filed.

So, right now, for anyone except the BJP forming the govt in MAH, it may turn out to be quite injurious to their collective health.

the BJP has successfully managed to get UT, of his own free will, to commit political suicide, publicly, and for the lust of power.

UT and AT who died politically yesterday, still do not know for sure who, in reality, owned the knife and who really stabbed them both in the back. They did not even see it coming

one thing has now been proven beyond all shadow of a doubt.

Fadvanis is not a liar.

For the BJP. their biggest problem is gone. Rumours are flying fast and thick that the SS may split and a big chunk may side with the BJP.

the only power that UT now has left is his letter of support.

Will he give it or will he not give it to the NCP and on that piece of paper is written his political future or just maybe even the lack of it.

mere numbers like 56(ss)+54(ncp)+44(con) = 154 do not even begin to describe the actual picture on the ground.

The BJP will cast a long shadow on all the events unfolding today.



I think Raj Thackrey (Nephew of Bal Thackrey) could become a real leader in Maharashtra if he decides to join BJP. He has a huge potential.


he doesn't seem right in the head and the BJP will not touch him because he has campaigned against them for the ncp/congi lot very recently by saying things that the ncp/congi lot would never dare to say

hired assassin
Last edited by chetak on 12 Nov 2019 20:04, edited 1 time in total.

UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Nov 2019 20:02

Is Greater Mumbai Great enough to become a UT I wonder.. just wondering of course.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 12 Nov 2019 20:07

UlanBatori wrote:Is Greater Mumbai Great enough to become a UT I wonder.. just wondering of course.


No party will dare do that.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 12 Nov 2019 20:14

UlanBatori wrote:If Prez rule imposed, does that mean re-election? Post-RJB? :mrgreen:


Judging from Haryana/MH elections, BJP didnt benefit. As the support groups didnt turn up to vote in large numbers Unless it a wave or a world cup final type election, these 370 action, RJB verdict, doesnt have election impact.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Nov 2019 20:32

370 maybe is a {yawn} but RJB may be different? Only thing bigger I can imagine (and still feasible) is improving parking in Muzzafarabad.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 12 Nov 2019 20:37

So, it is 'Ram' rajya for now in MH. In my opinion Amit should declare open season on the Sh!t Sena, including splitting the party in MH and also try to merge their MPs in the LS and RS into the BJP.

By this time is should be clear that Uddhavan and Adityan's one track agenda is to install Adityan as CM....they do not care about anything and anyone else. They can keep going at it while 'other efforts' are ongoing.

PS: it is also true that parties in the NDA such as LJP, AD, etc are basically family enterprises. All these guys will also go belly up. E.g., LJP is starting SS-like antics in Jharkhand.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Nov 2019 20:57

NCP/CON presser ducked a lot of question on SS and the ideological conflict by taking the line that an agreement has to be reached between NCP and CON before any discussion can happen with SS. :rotfl:

Also, notice the SS has gone to court using a CON lawyer but CON and NCP are taking it light. SS is desperate to get the invite back to get into the drivers seat that has been usurped by NCP. :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vinod » 12 Nov 2019 20:59

It looks like BJP is again trying to form govt :D :lol:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 12 Nov 2019 21:03

KL Dubey wrote:So, it is 'Ram' rajya for now in MH. In my opinion Amit should declare open season on the Sh!t Sena, including splitting the party in MH and also try to merge their MPs in the LS and RS into the BJP.

By this time is should be clear that Uddhavan and Adityan's one track agenda is to install Adityan as CM....they do not care about anything and anyone else. They can keep going at it while 'other efforts' are ongoing.

PS: it is also true that parties in the NDA such as LJP, AD, etc are basically family enterprises. All these guys will also go belly up. E.g., LJP is starting SS-like antics in Jharkhand.

Mr Rane has openly said that he has been given charge to make sure that BJP form the government.
Now if he can poach few from SS+NCP+Con then that would be poetic justice for Pawar's role in toppling Atalji's Government!!
Hope that happens and the loser's can keep crying on Money Power :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 12 Nov 2019 21:04

DF says BJP will try and form the government!!!
There U go
'Modaks' are being readied for the 'Mooshaks' to jump the ship!!! :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 12 Nov 2019 21:14

NCP has hanged SS dry. They purposely sent the letter to guv today and immediately BJP imposed pres rule, like super coordinated plan!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rsatchi » 12 Nov 2019 21:35

https://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/top-s ... -raut.html
Former Mumbai BJP chief Shelar also met the Sena's Rajya Sabha member and later said, " :lol: :lol: :lol: Doctors have advised Raut to speak less. I met him out of courtesy. It is Maharashtra's culture, we meet unwell people irrespective of political differences."

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 12 Nov 2019 22:34

Rupesh wrote:Looks like the Shiv Sena has read everything wrong. They lack of behind-the-curtains planning and overconfidence did the the party in. Congress cannot afford to support SS, they will loose muslim votes to Owaisi.


and pappu's kerala vote bank :mrgreen:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 12 Nov 2019 23:00

Rasheed Kidwai on India Today TV: "CON is going through the motion of forming the government"

Meaning CON is not really wanting to form the government! They are just going along just to satisfy the newly elected MLAs on CON ticket i.e. to show that they tried. :shock:

If this is true, what will happen to SS lofty expectation. :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 12 Nov 2019 23:05

pankajs wrote:Just a while back, turdesai made an interesting observation on India Today live.

When the NCP has time till 8:30 pm why did it shoot the letter to the Gov. so early? Did Pawar calculate that it would allow the central cabinet to decide on the matter immediately!


Nidhi Razdan was tweeting the same thing. Pawar is a fellow who should be trusted by no one, especially his allies. Congis know his character very well and are always careful. Uddhav on the other hand is an idiot and Pawar is going to have him wrapped around his finger. He didn't deserve to have honest allies like the BJP. He will only realize their worth once Pawar is done destroying him.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 12 Nov 2019 23:07

Guys, any ground reports on how the rank and file SS cadre on the ground feel? Do they see a betrayal?

I saw UT's latest press conf and it was so pathetic. He started this whole BJP back stabbing drama because he wanted CM chair for his family. And he thought a quick ticket to that would be to dump BJP after 30+ years of alliance, throw al principles to the wind, and ally with his very nemesis. And his hopes were dashed in a heartbeat.

And now in his latest press conf, he said they will patiently discuss govt formation and all options with NCP Cong. How pathetic. Could he not have toned down his expectations a bit, and negotiated an honorable exit from his high horse with his natural ally the BJP?

If the SS cadres are really happy and willing to go along with this charade, they deserve their fate.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 12 Nov 2019 23:14

CRamS wrote:And now in his latest press conf, he said they will patiently discuss govt formation and all options with NCP Cong. How pathetic. Could he not have toned down his expectations a bit, and negotiated an honorable exit from his high horse with his natural ally the BJP?


The "natural ally" part is not so true anymore. SS has already milked Hindutva for whatever it was worth to them. Just like they milked anti-North Indian sentiment earlier. They discarded that when it couldn't get them votes anymore. And they will junk Hindutva too now because BJP has captured that space. What exactly does the SS have to offer to the voters? If they care about development BJP can do it better. Same with Hindutva. Plus you do not get a dynasty with BJP unlike SS. The Maratha votebank is with NCP and Cong. Same with Muslims. So what has the SS got left? The cadres knew this and were already unhappy with the alliance since they had seen their seat share remain stagnant or fall while BJP's grew. I think they have been ready for this split for a while now.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 12 Nov 2019 23:18

this was aired by runditv and it would not have done so without the specific authorization of the mafia queen.

UT has been played like a stringed instrument


Follow the link below to see the video

Won't Go With "Scoundrel": When Bal Thackeray Rejected Alliance With NCP


MUMBAI: 12 Nov 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Bal Thackeray had said he would "never" align with Sharad Pawar's NCP
"I will not go along with a scoundrel, whoever he may be," he had said
The two had worked together during the 1982 textile workers' strike
As Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray desperately reached out to Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar for support to form government in Maharashtra, videos and quotes of his father Bal Thackeray's caustic attacks on both parties were circulated online.
In an interview to NDTV in 1999, Bal Thackeray had used the term "scoundrel" while rejecting the possibility of any alliance with Sharad Pawar.

The Shiv Sena founder had been asked about the possibility of an alliance with his bitter rival.

"Possibility in politics...what? If at all it is said that it is a game of scoundrels, it is for a man to decide whether he wants to remain a gentleman or a scoundrel. If anybody's trying to become a scoundrel, then? But I will not go along with a scoundrel, whoever he may be," Thackeray senior said.

Mr Thackeray also declared that he would "never" align with Sharad Pawar's NCP.

"The man responsible for toppling the (BJP's) Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led government, how can we afford to shake hands with him? I will never at least. I will never."

"Sharad Pawar was the one who openly said to the press - 'yes, my responsibility was to topple the government. That I have done'. He's an expert in that. Knowing full well that he is the man (responsible) for the damage...think of the people, the voters. Will they tolerate it? They will say you are cheating us," said Bal Thackeray.

Despite the bitter comments, Mr Thackeray and Mr Pawar were close at one point, during the 1980s. They worked together during the 1982 textile workers' strike. The two fell out after Shiv Sena's Chhagan Bhujbal launched a campaign accusing Mr Pawar publicly of a corruption scam.

In 1995, Mr Thackeray's party defeated Sharad Pawar, then chief minister of a Congress government.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 Nov 2019 23:31

IMHO, SS did the biggest harakiri in recent few years. It only beats what congress did in Goa. While their base was dwindling on the seats given to them by BJP, they would have been helped by BJP votes. But this episode would make supporters think what and who is it they are voting for. They can still salvage the situation by focusing on ram mandir construction and some work for mathura and kashi and focussing on development. Else they will loose badly in next election. The situation different from the times they fought alone is that, everyone thought its a temporary family feud. But this time it is for all to see that SS has joined hands with NCP/Con. It's against everything the party stood for earlier.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 12 Nov 2019 23:45

Kashi wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Is Greater Mumbai Great enough to become a UT I wonder.. just wondering of course.


No party will dare do that.


IIRC even for article 370 people voiced such opinion. Nothing is impossible to do if Modi/Shah set their minds to it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 12 Nov 2019 23:51

pankajs wrote:Just a while back, turdesai made an interesting observation on India Today live.

When the NCP has time till 8:30 pm why did it shoot the letter to the Gov. so early? Did Pawar calculate that it would allow the central cabinet to decide on the matter immediately!

To which, its National Affairs editor sadi something to the effect that it all seems to be coordinated! :rotfl: He further went on to say that the trio of Pawar, Shah and Modi seem to read each other pretty well without the need to speak.

Iz there a "pre-poll" understanding between Modi and Pawar? Perhaps on how to screw both CON and SS together. All speculation of course. :wink:


Pawar seems to have worked out an understanding with Amit Shah to have the ED/CBI go slow on him and Ajit Pawar in lieu of him playing the double game and screwing the Shit Sena.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 13 Nov 2019 02:03

Rsatchi wrote:Mr Rane has openly said that he has been given charge to make sure that BJP form the government.
Now if he can poach few from SS+NCP+Con then that would be poetic justice for Pawar's role in toppling Atalji's Government!!


Not so simple. Can't poach "a few" MLAs from here and there, due to anti-defection law. Need 50%+ of MLAs to split from another party and merge with BJP in order for it to be legal. Only 4 scenarios:

1) SS comes back with no funny conditions. Seems more unlikely, and probably Amit is not interested in this since he knows the same drama will start again in 2024.

2) Split SS and get 50+% of the MLAs to merge with BJP. I think this is the best option. Time to take the gloves off and declare full scale attack.

3) Reduce house strength to 210-220 by getting 60+ MLAs from various parties to resign (or jump ship and be ready for disqualification). Seems a tall order here. In KA recently this happened, but BJP was much closer to a majority there.

4) NCP supports from outside for now, like they did last time. Once goremint is formed, BJP can still work on #1-#3 behind the scenes.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 03:08

Vips wrote:
pankajs wrote:Just a while back, turdesai made an interesting observation on India Today live.

When the NCP has time till 8:30 pm why did it shoot the letter to the Gov. so early? Did Pawar calculate that it would allow the central cabinet to decide on the matter immediately!

To which, its National Affairs editor sadi something to the effect that it all seems to be coordinated! :rotfl: He further went on to say that the trio of Pawar, Shah and Modi seem to read each other pretty well without the need to speak.

Iz there a "pre-poll" understanding between Modi and Pawar? Perhaps on how to screw both CON and SS together. All speculation of course. :wink:


Pawar seems to have worked out an understanding with Amit Shah to have the ED/CBI go slow on him and Ajit Pawar in lieu of him playing the double game and screwing the Shit Sena.


had pawar waited till 2030 hrs for the deadline expiry, the cabinet meeting could have only be held after Modiji's return from the brazil visit for the BRICS summit, three days later.

So he informed the Governor's office at 1130. Enough time for the governor to send the report, enough time at dilli to organize an emergency cabinet meeting and recommend president's rule in MAH before Modiji departed on his 3 days BRICS trip.

The president returned to dilli at 1700 hrs and the cabinet recommendation was approved by him by about 1730 hrs.

game, set and match.

Anyone still having doubts :mrgreen:


PM Narendra Modi leaves for Brazil to attend BRICS Summit


ANI | 12 NOV 2019, 04:47 PM IST

Prime Minister Narendra Modi left for Brazil on November 12 to attend the 11th BRICS Summit. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have bilateral meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Chinese President Xi Jinping. The theme of BRICS summit this year is ‘Economic Growth for an Innovative Future’.
Last edited by chetak on 13 Nov 2019 03:19, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 13 Nov 2019 03:15

Unless BJP leadership finds a way to break the SS louts, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict that NCP-SS-Congoon govt will come to fruition. In fact, SS is in a point of no return. They simply cannot go back to BJP in present form without becoming an even bigger laughing stock. Furthermore, this is their best chance of getting CM post.

But I am seeing another possibility however remote. As many have pointed out, there is a big prejudice (or shall we say hatred) against Devender Fadnavis because he is a Brahmin, and there is a huge faulty line between Marathas and non Marathas. This is sad, but I think it will take time for Hinduthva to bridge this kind of caste divide. So for the moment, if a Maratha BJP leader were projected as the CM and that would help break away MLAs from SS, NCP, and Cong, I think Devender Fadnavis should sacrifice himself. Its sad, but party is bigger. And I am sure ModiJi can give him a position in the central cabinet where Fandavis's skills could be utilized.


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 03:52

CRamS wrote:Unless BJP leadership finds a way to break the SS louts, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict that NCP-SS-Congoon govt will come to fruition. In fact, SS is in a point of no return. They simply cannot go back to BJP in present form without becoming an even bigger laughing stock. Furthermore, this is their best chance of getting CM post.

But I am seeing another possibility however remote. As many have pointed out, there is a big prejudice (or shall we say hatred) against Devender Fadnavis because he is a Brahmin, and there is a huge faulty line between Marathas and non Marathas. This is sad, but I think it will take time for Hinduthva to bridge this kind of caste divide. So for the moment, if a Maratha BJP leader were projected as the CM and that would help break away MLAs from SS, NCP, and Cong, I think Devender Fadnavis should sacrifice himself. Its sad, but party is bigger. And I am sure ModiJi can give him a position in the central cabinet where Fandavis's skills could be utilized.


I have a very strong feeling that fadnavis is being groomed for high office.

Right now, he is the BJP's best bet in MAH.

The congis and the NCP are actually scared of him because of how he decimated them in the rural areas and their traditional hinterland strongholds.

No fuss in the papers, no chest thumping, no breast beating, just silent, hard hitting, far reaching structural reforms that crippled the traditional power brokers and decimated their ranks. His assiduous and tirelessly diligent strikes at the very hearts of these family satraps are worthy of the deadly skills employed by a highly accomplished ninja assassin.

The SS did ask for his replacement and wanted gadkari in his place.

That's how apprehensive his political opponents are.

He comes across as the diffidently smiling, slightly pudgy, the harmless kid next door.

His political backers are in the top echelons of both the BJP and the RSS too.

And above all, he has a clean, non-controversial image, a rarity in Indian politics.

not many can sport such a fine pedigree.


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 13 Nov 2019 05:16

CRamS wrote:Unless BJP leadership finds a way to break the SS louts, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict that NCP-SS-Congoon govt will come to fruition. In fact, SS is in a point of no return. They simply cannot go back to BJP in present form without becoming an even bigger laughing stock. Furthermore, this is their best chance of getting CM post.

But I am seeing another possibility however remote. As many have pointed out, there is a big prejudice (or shall we say hatred) against Devender Fadnavis because he is a Brahmin, and there is a huge faulty line between Marathas and non Marathas. This is sad, but I think it will take time for Hinduthva to bridge this kind of caste divide. So for the moment, if a Maratha BJP leader were projected as the CM and that would help break away MLAs from SS, NCP, and Cong, I think Devender Fadnavis should sacrifice himself. Its sad, but party is bigger. And I am sure ModiJi can give him a position in the central cabinet where Fandavis's skills could be utilized.


SS has put itself in a corner and as a lollipop if a couple of plum ministries are given they will like pakis claim victory in defeat and give BJP the support to form the government. Even that option for SS will go if they still act haughty.

If NCP/Con party and SS do form the government, it wont last long and congress will be marginalized in rest of the country and will loose its share of psuedo secular votes.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 13 Nov 2019 05:19

Vips wrote:If NCP/Con party and SS do form the government, it wont last long and congress will be marginalized in rest of the country and will loose its share of psuedo secular votes.

Don't know about the rest of the country but in MH at least they will lose Muslim votes to AIMIM. Owaisi is already looking to capitalize on it if the Congress supports SS. In other parts of India, SS may not be too well known locally and Muslims may not have other serious anti-BJP options except Congress. So it might not make much of a difference. You can also count on the usual suspects in the media to do a reverse ghar-wapasi of SS and turn them into a "secular" party overnight.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 13 Nov 2019 05:28

They will loose the christian/muslim votes big time to the communist party in Kerala and Kerala needs to be preserved by the Con party as a ticket to the parliament (and entry into the Lutyens zone) for Rahul Gandhi and very soon for Sonia Gandhi.

In other states too like (Delhi, Bihar, MP, Jharkhand, Bengal and UP) they will loose on the overall vote share and other regional parties - SP, BSP, Janta Dal, AAP and Trinamool will quickly capitalize on it. Congress will shoot itself on the foot if they even just lend 'outside support' to SS/NCP and will be called out as supporter of Hindu party by its other non bjp rivals. That chance if they take will be at their own peril.

Wily Pawar knows this and has set up a trap for Congress and wants to decimate it in Maharashtra to emerge as the undisputed/main opposition party to BJP in the state.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vips » 13 Nov 2019 06:50

The Sharad Pawar-Sonia Gandhi Phone Call That Thwacked Shiv Sena's Plans.

The Shiv Sena was hoping to stake claim to power in Maharashtra last evening with the support of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress, which would raise its numbers to 154 in the assembly -- nine past the majority mark.
Among the factors which may have queered its pitch at the eleventh hour was a phone call between Congress president Sonia Gandhi and NCP leader Sharad Pawar.

Sources say Sonia Gandhi had softened on her objections to supporting the ideologically opposite Shiv Sena on Monday evening. But a well-timed phone call from Sharad Pawar to Sonia Gandhi appears to have deepened the Congress' reluctance.

In the morning, as the Congress kicked off a series of consultations on Maharashtra, Sonia Gandhi was said to be strongly opposed to supporting the Sena. Her view - that aligning with the pro-Hindutva and hardline Sena would harm the Congress electorally - was said to be supported by party seniors like AK Anthony and KC Venugopal, and Delhi-based Maharashtra leaders like Mukul Wasnik and Rajiv Satav.

A counterpoint was presented by Maharashtra Congress leaders like Sushil Kumar Shinde, Ashok Chavan, Prithviraj Chavan and Balasaheb Thorat, who believed it was wiser, under the circumstances, to back the Shiv Sena and keep the BJP out. Some in that meeting believed the Congress president was coming around.

Around 5 pm, Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray in his first ever call to Sonia Gandhi, made a formal request for support. The Congress president promised to get back to him after her consultations.

But about an hour later, Sharad Pawar spoke to Sonia Gandhi and expressed some reluctance to go ahead, saying it was too early to promise support to the Sena. Mr Pawar reportedly told Sonia Gandhi that many aspects of power sharing still needed to be negotiated, and that he had not given the Sena a letter of support.

Crucially, he mentioned that his party was just two seats short of the Sena. That seemed to indicate a rethink by the NCP on whether the Sena should expect the chief minister's post for a full term. Was Mr Pawar hinting at a power-sharing agreement, wondered Congress leaders who were privy to the developments.

This sequence of events runs contrary to the NCP's assertion that it was ready to offer support to the Sena, but the Congress had played spoilsport. As Ajit Pawar, NCP leader told the media, "From morning 10 am till 7:30 pm on Monday, our leaders including Sharad Pawar, Praful Patel were waiting for their letter. They (Shiv Sena) had to submit the letter by 7:30 pm. If Congress was not sending its letter of support, how could we give ours," Ajit Pawar disclosed.

The Congress however says Mr Pawar's seeming U-turn, which came just hours before the Governor's deadline to the Sena, only served to heighten the Congress's reluctance to support the Sena. Finally, the Congress put out a noncommittal statement without mentioning the Sena at all, saying it would hold discussions with Sharad Pawar.

At the Raj Bhawan, the Sena delegation led by Aaditya Thackeray requested more time to bring NCP and Congress letters of support, but the governor refused.


NDTV report on how Pawar is playing a double game. Cannot trust it as they may be trying to protect the mafia queen and con(gress) party from any blame and trying to shift it to Pawar.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 13 Nov 2019 06:57

Vips wrote:NDTV report on how Pawar is playing a double game. Cannot trust it as they may be trying to protect the mafia queen and con(gress) party from any blame and trying to shift it to Pawar.

NDTV is basically an INC mouthpiece at this point. Here they are attempting to subtly shift the blame onto Pawar and the NCP. Look at how they portray SG as a reasonable person who listens to all points of view and makes an informed decision instead of being the ruthless mafia queen surrounded by a bunch of fawning lickspittles that she is.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 13 Nov 2019 07:47

Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 13 Nov 2019 08:45

Has SS officially declared that they have left NDA? Not sure. Their minister has resigned from union cabinet. They have left the BJP alliance in Maha. Do these to mean they have left NDA for good?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 13 Nov 2019 09:30

Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 13 Nov 2019 09:37

Vips wrote:SS has put itself in a corner and as a lollipop if a couple of plum ministries are given they will like pakis claim victory in defeat and give BJP the support to form the government. Even that option for SS will go if they still act haughty.

They put themselves in the corner and then dug a hole and trapped their fat ego in it.

All public chest beating about CMship will now come to haunt them. Had they not been so much adamant about CM post then there was some chance. But thackrays have huge ego. BT i can understand, he was a self made man. But UT has zero achievement and ego of size of his father, without his intelligence.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 13 Nov 2019 09:43

Also maintaining ambiguity in politics is key. How AS and NM don't speak, to maintain that ambiguity. When UT gave shouting job to Raut he should have kept mum. You have a parrot speaking then why take press conferences! If at the end if you want to change your stand then you can easily make scapegoat of parrot.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 13 Nov 2019 10:23

Chetak, What would written letters mean for such parties?

Zilch.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 13 Nov 2019 10:36

nachiket wrote:Don't know about the rest of the country but in MH at least they will lose Muslim votes to AIMIM. Owaisi is already looking to capitalize on it if the Congress supports SS.

There is already a strong feeling among the "seculars" that Owaisi is a stooge of the BJP only retained to split the anti-BJP votes :). The Congress will also find it tough in places like Kerala, where they have to be seen as "secular" (and not siding Shiv Sena, who had once even beaten up Madrassis).

CRamS wrote:Has SS officially declared that they have left NDA? Not sure. Their minister has resigned from union cabinet. They have left the BJP alliance in Maha. Do these to mean they have left NDA for good?

No, not yet. The resigning of the SS MP from Lok Sabha was kind of a symbolical step to indicate that the alliance is broken. But I don't think the divorce is now completely done. There would be further humiliating steps (set by NCP and Cong.) which SS would have to do to make the process complete.

abhijitm wrote:Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM

:lol:. And this was the primary motive for Shiv Sena to backstab the BJP. The other conditions ensure that Shiv Sena would be just used as an errand boy, with NCP and Congress actually running the show. This would be worse than what Shri. Kumaraswamy suffered in KA.


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