2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 13 Nov 2019 10:47

abhijitm wrote:Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism


^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source reporting it ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 13 Nov 2019 10:50

KL Dubey wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism


^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source reporting it ?

Local printed (reputed) newspaper.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 10:58

ramana wrote:Chetak, What would written letters mean for such parties?

Zilch.


Saar, was talking about UT's foolishness to stake his all on the word of a conman who had let them and the BJP down before.

UT has now lost personal, political as well as organizational credibility and is seen as an immoral man solely after power and personal aggrandizement.

Additionally, he may have fatally wounded his own son's political future as also the SS's dynastic succession plan.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 13 Nov 2019 10:58

abhijitm wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source reporting it ?

Local printed (reputed) newspaper.


OK thanks...assuming this is true, then Uddhav and Aditya will be completely naked....what a pair of idiots.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 11:16

KL Dubey wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Local printed (reputed) newspaper.


OK thanks...assuming this is true, then Uddhav and Aditya will be completely naked....what a pair of idiots.



look at what is being planned.

If all three are leading, then who is following.

All raja only, no praja anywhere.

CMP is the blueprint of a public loot program

twitter


Super Exclusive: Complete farm loan waiver, Muslim reservation, review of crop loan scheme, more MSP will be the part of the common minimum programme of Congress, NCP & Shiv Sena led coalition govt in Maharashtra

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 11:34

chetak wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
OK thanks...assuming this is true, then Uddhav and Aditya will be completely naked....what a pair of idiots.



look at what is being planned.

If all three are leading, then who is following.

All raja only, no praja anywhere.

CMP is the blueprint of a public loot program

twitter


Super Exclusive: Complete farm loan waiver, Muslim reservation,review of crop loan scheme, more MSP will be the part of the common minimum programme of Congress, NCP & Shiv Sena led coalition govt in Maharashtra

Saat do link source.

The CMP on expected lines. How else is CON going to sign on and go back to their sickular base. On reason why I wanted to see the CMP.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 11:41

chetak wrote:
ramana wrote:Chetak, What would written letters mean for such parties?

Zilch.


Saar, was talking about UT's foolishness to stake his all on the word of a conman who had let them and the BJP down before.

UT has now lost personal, political as well as organizational credibility and is seen as an immoral man solely after power and personal aggrandizement.

Additionally, he may have fatally wounded his own son's political future as also the SS's dynastic succession plan.

Yup .. Imagine going back to the MLAs and cadre with the proposals from NCP/CON outlined in this forum!

Will it be too much to expect many of them to jump ship and join BJP and save their own individual credibility with the voters. I mean if that is how little SS MLAs are going to get they might as well get the same from BJP collectively and preserve their credibility at least.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 11:47

Maharashtra impasse: No CM from Thackeray family, demands Congress



Maharashtra impasse: No CM from Thackeray family, demands Congress

Congress has come up with a three-page list of conditions for offering its support in government formation, sources have said.



WRITTEN BY

DNA Web Team

EDITED BY
Abhishek Sharma

Nov 12, 2019,

As political developments in Maharashtra continue to intensify every day with no party able to seal a deal to form government in the state, Congress has come up with a three-page list of conditions for offering its support in government formation, sources have said.

According to the information, Congress is demanding that the chief minister shouldn't be from the Thackeray family and all three parties should agree on a Common Minimum Program. On Tuesday, Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut had confirmed that his party is working towards a common minimum programme (CMP) with NCP and Congress in a bid to form a coalition government in Maharashtra.

The Congress is also seeking a power-sharing formula where four ministeries will be allocated to its MLAs. The Assembly Speaker's position is also on the party's list

The party also raised concerns about the decision for the municipal corporation adding that it wants the distribution of 'mahamandals' as well.

As per the sources, senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge was not in favour of an alliance but Ashok Chavan, Prithiviraj Chavan, and Sushil Kumar Shinde were able to convince the party's interim president Sonia Gandhi.

It was conveyed that the maximum number of Congress MLAs should be a part of the government instead of just outside support.

The party wants the alliance to look like a car where Shiv Sena is on the driving seat and NCP is the key while Congress will control the braking system, said the source.

Political developments in Maharashtra are intensifying every day but so far no party has been able to seal a deal to finally stake claim and form government in the state. Maharashtra went to assembly polls on October 21 and the results were declared on October 24.

While the Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari has sent a report to the President saying that government cannot be formed in Maharashtra in accordance with the constitution, Shiv Sena has approached the Supreme Court against the former after he denied extra time to the party to gather support from Congress and NCP to prove its majority.

The Shiv Sena and the BJP contested the recently-held assembly elections together but have failed to reach an agreement for government formation.

The Shiv Sena's claim of 50-50 government formula, asking for the chief minister's post of two and half years, has not been accepted by the BJP.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nits » 13 Nov 2019 11:47

pankajs wrote:
chetak wrote:
Saar, was talking about UT's foolishness to stake his all on the word of a conman who had let them and the BJP down before.

UT has now lost personal, political as well as organizational credibility and is seen as an immoral man solely after power and personal aggrandizement.

Additionally, he may have fatally wounded his own son's political future as also the SS's dynastic succession plan.

Yup .. Imagine going back to the MLAs and cadre with the proposals from NCP/CON outlined in this forum!

Will it be too much to expect many of them to jump ship and join BJP and save their own individual credibility with the voters. I mean if that is how little SS MLAs are going to get they might as well get the same from BJP collectively and preserve their credibility at least.

Door still open for tie-up with BJP, hints Uddhav

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 11:50

nits wrote:
pankajs wrote:Yup .. Imagine going back to the MLAs and cadre with the proposals from NCP/CON outlined in this forum!

Will it be too much to expect many of them to jump ship and join BJP and save their own individual credibility with the voters. I mean if that is how little SS MLAs are going to get they might as well get the same from BJP collectively and preserve their credibility at least.

Door still open for tie-up with BJP, hints Uddhav


Left the family home as a self declared raja and is now open to returning as a destitute servant. :mrgreen:

this guy had no qualms in burning decades-old bridges and quite possibly, vaporized his own continued existence as a credible politician due to his immaturity.

The BJP has now tasked rane, the guy whose entry into the BJP was opposed tooth and nail by UT, to cobble up support for the formation of the next BJP govt in MAH.

Once the SS splits, no one else may have any viable options to form the govt except the BJP.

Isn't rane ex SS, knowing the MLAs personally and able to speak their "language".
Last edited by chetak on 13 Nov 2019 12:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Nov 2019 11:59

What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 12:01

KL Dubey wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism


^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source reporting it ?

Very nice way to destroy SS once for all.

BJP is the anvil and the NCP is the hammer. Together they will flatten the credibility of the SS and UT/AT. What a game it has been. All that was needed was a poke to UT's Yuuuuuuuge ego by AS and silence after that!

BJP has made NO visible play yet to get SS back. That too is tactical! BJP's silence allows NCP/SS to go for the kill, put the most difficult to swallow condition and thoroughly discredit SS and its leadership infornt of its own MLAs, cadre and voters. BJP is the anvil and the NCP the hammer.

Ideally, BJP will wait for SS/UT makes some sort of commitment to the demands NCP/CON before it makes any public overture. Not give SS/UT a fig leaf to make a U-turn. IF UT tries to pull back on his own and come back to the BJP he will have NO bargaining power. Either way BJP wins. Long rope to allow UT to hang the SS publicity.

AFTER, SS/UT has publicly accepted the NCP/CON offer, the BJP will perhaps make an offer to SS/UT or go for the kill and split the SS.

That sounds like a plan. BJP/AS/Modi are casting their shadow even when they are silent and not doing anything publicly.

Btw, I am NOT gloating with the SS demise as we know it. This is just political analysis/commentary.

We DO need a Hindutva party to the right of the BJP. It serves the Hindutva-vadi and BJP by having such a party. Having the field owned to BJP will benefit the BJP but NOT the Hindutva-vadi in the long run. Such a sad state of affairs.
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 12:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 12:05

watch video and make up your mind as to who is lying.

During the elections Amit Shah clearly refuted any compromise on the CM candidate.

The Mahayuti, including Sena sought votes in the name of CM Fadnavis.




https://twitter.com/India_Policy/status/1194455102037250048

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Nov 2019 12:06

KL Dubey wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism


^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source reporting it ?


When UT left BJP for NCP/Cong, I am sure he would have calculated the pound of flesh he will have to part with to become CM. Isn't this what UT was also demanding from BJP.
With almost 1/3rd strength by each party, it is fair for them to demand 33% ministries.
Point # 1 can always be negotiated and #6 can always be couched in political jargon.
If above are the demands, I think UT will agree to almost all as he has already burnt his bridges and going back would leave him right on the edge of political abyss.
Corruption like cigarette is the greatest unifier.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 12:08

Vikas wrote:What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?

Why will Pawar ditch SS when he can extract his pound of flesh?

How about SS MLAs, cadre and voters ditch SS? The SS MLAs ditching SS/UT will server the BJP right now where as the cadre and voters ditching SS/UT serve it long-term. How about that?

1. No 50:50 split in portfolios
2. No fat ministries
3. Compromise on key ideological planks

Only get 2.5 years of rotational CM that too a non-Thackyer. Why will the MLAs not jump ship to BJP?
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 12:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 13 Nov 2019 12:11

Supreme Court upholds Speaker’s disqualification of 17 Karnataka MLAs
Don't know what is the impact this is going to be for Mr. Yeddy & Co @ BJP in Karnataka. Looks like the MLAs remain disqualified but only till the end of 15th Legislative assembly term.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 12:17

pankajs wrote:
Vikas wrote:What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?

Why will Pawar ditch SS when he can extract his pound of flesh?

How about SS MLAs, cadre and voters ditch SS? The SS MLAs ditching SS/UT will server the BJP right now where as the cadre and voters ditching SS/UT serve it long-term. How about that?

1. No 50:50 split in portfolios
2. No fat ministries
3. Compromise on key ideological planks

Only get 2.5 years of rotational CM that too a non-Thackyer. Why will the MLAs not jump ship to BJP?

Forgot to add ...

ONLY fools use the last resort first! and no one can claim AS/Modi are fools.

Pawar-play from BJP will come only as a last resort IF every thing else fails. Before that there are a whole lots of SAAM, DAAM, DANDA, BHED! to be used with the SS MLAs.

I don't think Pawar-play will be necessary given how badly the SS MLAs have been let down after being led up the garden path by UT/AT, if one reads the condition proposed by NCP/CON.

Also, Pawar-play has its own downside. Pawarful ditching SS/UT will generate sympathy for UT. Plus Pawarful will need some concession from the BJP. No matter what the case is against Pawarful, unless BJP can lock him up immediately, Pawarful will have his pound of flesh from the BJP plus the sympathy of the public of having been politically targeted at his age. Why grant Pawarful those when all can be achieved at a lesser cost?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 12:26

Vikas wrote:What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?


just saying onlee.

he may not have much time left.

his clan are all affected and he possibly wants to rectify that before departure. He may have been left with just no other choice.

The way things panned out on the 12th, culminating with the imposition of the president's rule, the bizarre series of coincidences just cannot be merely attributed to "innocent" happenstance.


Moreover, Sudhir Mungantiwar, the senior BJP leader and state’s finance minister of the outgoing government had stated that the President’s rule could be imposed in Maharashtra, if the government is not form­ed by November 7.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 12:49

Sachin wrote:Supreme Court upholds Speaker’s disqualification of 17 Karnataka MLAs
Don't know what is the impact this is going to be for Mr. Yeddy & Co @ BJP in Karnataka. Looks like the MLAs remain disqualified but only till the end of 15th Legislative assembly term.

Negative > The MLAs will have to get elected again and that means 50% or more are going to loose, given the current state configuration, and strengthen the number against BJP in the assembly.

Neutral > No immediate threat to the BJP in KAR

Overall Negative and one reason why KAR is likely to have a fresh Assembly election in the near future.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sum » 13 Nov 2019 13:00

The party wants the alliance to look like a car where Shiv Sena is on the driving seat and NCP is the key while Congress will control the braking system, said the source.

:rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kvraghav » 13 Nov 2019 13:06

pankajs wrote:
Sachin wrote:Supreme Court upholds Speaker’s disqualification of 17 Karnataka MLAs
Don't know what is the impact this is going to be for Mr. Yeddy & Co @ BJP in Karnataka. Looks like the MLAs remain disqualified but only till the end of 15th Legislative assembly term.

Negative > The MLAs will have to get elected again and that means 50% or more are going to loose, given the current state configuration, and strengthen the number against BJP in the assembly.

Neutral > No immediate threat to the BJP in KAR

Overall Negative and one reason why KAR is likely to have a fresh Assembly election in the near future.

BJP is at 104 Plus the three independents. That is 107. I think the merger of one independent is rejected which means he may not loose his seat. This govt will survive till next central elections. The plans as below:

1) Win 6 seats out of the 16 seats.
2) Resign 2 more MLA if the above does not happen. GT Deve Gowda is already ready.
3) Take JDS support if all the above fails. Kumaraswamy is also ready.

The BJP has 13 Ministers and nearly 10 Board presidents on offer which will be taken up by any of the above.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 13:10

kvraghav wrote:BJP is at 104 Plus the three independents. That is 107. I think the merger of one independent is rejected which means he may not loose his seat. This govt will survive till next central elections. The plans as below:

1) Win 6 seats out of the 16 seats.
2) Resign 2 more MLA if the above does not happen. GT Deve Gowda is already ready.
3) Take JDS support if all the above fails. Kumaraswamy is also ready.

The BJP has 13 Ministers and nearly 10 Board presidents on offer which will be taken up by any of the above.

Possible.

However, BJP does not like wafer thin majorities that is venerable to sabotage from within with every MLA becoming important BUT it has worked with such a scenario before. Lets see.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 13 Nov 2019 13:12

Whether SS forms the government with NCP or not, the medium term outlook for BJP in MH is bleak. If a govt. is formed it means 5 years of unrestricted loot for the state with BJP watching from the sidelines. If there is no government and elections are held again, NCP-Cong will easily win outright because of SS and BJP votes being split. Fadnavis was doing a lot of good in MH and I had hoped for one more term for him. Thanks to Uddhav's treachery that is unlikely to happen. Perhaps Modi can use him at the center in a cabinet post instead of him being wasted as leader of the opposition in MH assembly.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 13:21

nachiket wrote:Whether SS forms the government with NCP or not, the medium term outlook for BJP in MH is bleak. If a govt. is formed it means 5 years of unrestricted loot for the state with BJP watching from the sidelines. If there is no government and elections are held again, NCP-Cong will easily win outright because of SS and BJP votes being split. Fadnavis was doing a lot of good in MH and I had hoped for one more term for him. Thanks to Uddhav's treachery that is unlikely to happen. Perhaps Modi can use him at the center in a cabinet post instead of him being wasted as leader of the opposition in MH assembly.

This is the occasion for display of BJP's tremendous firepower. AS/Modi are not likely to hand over the state on a platter to NCP/CON.

The SS can be split and so can be CON. Remember CON was the first to quarantine it MLAs in Rajasthan! IIRC, 20 CON MLAs are first timers and thus most at risk per CONs own analysis.

The day is young, field wide open and we will likely see DF back in the saddle in MH in not too distant future.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 13 Nov 2019 13:26

pankajs wrote:This is the occasion for display of BJP's tremendous firepower. AS/Modi are not likely to hand over the state on a platter to NCP/CON.

The SS can be split and so can be CON. Remember CON was the first to quarantine it MLAs in Rajasthan! IIRC, 20 CON MLAs are first timers and thus most at risk per CONs own analysis.

The day is young, field wide open and we will likely see DF back in the saddle in MH in not too distant future.

Splitting SS and/or Cong is not easy and it will only lead to the MLA's disqualification. Won't give the BJP majority anyway. Besides there is no guarantee that if they join BJP and are given tickets again they will win. BJP had convinced several to defect and join them from NCP/Cong before the election and most of them lost.

As for Cong quarantining their MLA's in Rajasthan I am still not sure if they were afraid of BJP stealing them or their own "ally" Pawar :mrgreen:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 13:31

^^
Not as difficult to split SS/CON as it was in KAR to avoid automatic disqualification.

CON @ 44 is the easiest to get with 22 needed to make is past the anti-defection bar.

105 (BJP) + 17 (Independents) + 22 (Split-CON) = 144

Lets see.

Added Later: The elected MLAs have not been sworn in and I think that is deliberate. Looks like BJP is going to make a chanakyan play via that path though I can't quite figure out what.

BJP will make some unusual play even if it gets challenged in the SC and gets swatted down. They DF would in the meantime, get into the saddle, use the resources and machinery of the state to change the facts on the ground and make the SC decision irrelevant. KAR is the most recent case in point.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 13 Nov 2019 13:57

pankajs wrote:^^
Not as difficult to split SS/CON as it was in KAR to avoid automatic disqualification.

CON @ 44 is the easiest to get with 22 needed to make is past the anti-defection bar.

105 (BJP) + 17 (Independents) + 22 (Split-CON) = 144

Lets see.

Added Later: The elected MLAs have not been sworn in and I think that is deliberate. Looks like BJP is going to make a chanakyan play via that path though I can't quite figure out what.

BJP will make some unusual play even if it gets challenged in the SC and gets swatted down. They DF would in the meantime, get into the saddle, use the resources and machinery of the state to change the facts on the ground and make the SC decision irrelevant. KAR is the most recent case in point.


Its 2/3, so it has to be 30 MLAs in case of Congress defection. Nevertheless, the best option for BJP for power now is SS own MLAs mass rebellion. But then why hasnt it happened already? We underestimate greed, and lust of power.

Also BJP themselves have a fair share of turncoats, so those MLAs can also resign if other opportunities arises

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 14:10

greatde wrote:
pankajs wrote:^^
Not as difficult to split SS/CON as it was in KAR to avoid automatic disqualification.

CON @ 44 is the easiest to get with 22 needed to make is past the anti-defection bar.

105 (BJP) + 17 (Independents) + 22 (Split-CON) = 144

Lets see.

Added Later: The elected MLAs have not been sworn in and I think that is deliberate. Looks like BJP is going to make a chanakyan play via that path though I can't quite figure out what.

BJP will make some unusual play even if it gets challenged in the SC and gets swatted down. They DF would in the meantime, get into the saddle, use the resources and machinery of the state to change the facts on the ground and make the SC decision irrelevant. KAR is the most recent case in point.


Its 2/3, so it has to be 30 MLAs in case of Congress defection. Nevertheless, the best option for BJP for power now is SS own MLAs mass rebellion. But then why hasnt it happened already? We underestimate greed, and lust of power.

Also BJP themselves have a fair share of turncoats, so those MLAs can also resign if other opportunities arises

True that!

However, Why should SS MLAs or their BJP patrons show their hand so early. As I have written before, Ideally BJP will wait for UT/AT to publicly accept the degrading NCP/CON offer before making its move. That is the way to bury the UT i.e. getting him to commit to anti-Hindutva agenda. Has UT committed that yet?

And the resignation game can be played multiple ways and even NCP will come into play when it gets that dirty.

Finally, what if the BJP offers the SS MLAs same terms as NCP/CON - 1/2 CM + DCM + Hindutva - UT/AT, will they rather be with BJP or NCP/CON? After all, accepting NCP/CON terms will negate all SS ideologies. IF as you say, greed and lust for power is all that count then my offer to SS MLAs should work too. What do you say?

The day is yet young ...

Note: Multiple edit for clarity
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 14:19, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 13 Nov 2019 14:16

Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.

I am suspecting sena was planning and waiting for a right opportunity to break away from hindutva and stick to local identity politics. Their core voters' key issue is marathi identity anyway and for them hindutva comes second. So I would not surprised to see SS adopt a new face of secularism plus local identity.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Nov 2019 14:22

If 2/3rd of MLA's from SS can switch sides then Thackrey is really riding on empty gas. I would assume that he has pulse of SS MLA's before he went all green on BJP. What was he smoking I wonder ?
That BJP despite having almost double the seats would meekly surrender CM chair to his family ?
I think this stalemate will either result in fresh elections or parties breaking up and supporting BJP.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 14:39

abhijitm wrote:Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.

I am suspecting sena was planning and waiting for a right opportunity to break away from hindutva and stick to local identity politics. Their core voters' key issue is marathi identity anyway and for them hindutva comes second. So I would not surprised to see SS adopt a new face of secularism plus local identity.

BJP wouldn't mind SS turn one bit if it can "engineer" the next 5 year for its own. Why is that?

1. On Hindtva they will have no competitors and hence to NO pressure to make any major future moves. Most of the pending "core" issues already in the kitty. Does anyone think Modi/AS want future minefield instead of being allowed to focus their energies on their core Vikas agenda? So no competition to the right is exactly what Modi may want.

2. Sickularism has many farthers and hence intense competition. The more the competition the more radical the ideas will get. Just look at what the Democratic presidential candidates have done to themselves as they competed for the left vote!

Surpise! it works to BJPs advantage. a) Leaves it as the sole custodian of hindutva AND b) Allows them to take a more centrist position while still looking far far to the right of the gooky sickularist.

Result, BJP can make development its plank with just a little sprinkling of Hindutva. Modi can get an international image makeover with his new moderate stance. Works for Modi. Laddu in both hands!

3. Local BJP too can play the local identity politics though it will have to moderate its stance like the CON. Can be managed, On this BJP cannot outdo the SS being a pan India party.

4. The country as a whole is moving right. If all opposition moves to the gookly left guess who benefits? BJP! What is not to like about this from BJP's pov. The movement to the right of the electorate as a whole will allow BJP to blunt "some" of SS's hyper local politics.

Overall, the BJP would gladly accept the above proposition. All promises on core issues done, Modi get to move to the center. Gets to focus solely on Vikas. Gets an International image makeover as the great reformer. Plus I have outlined a settlement with Bakis on J&K that Modi can do. That will make him a great International peace maker. Perhaps, even gets him a NoB@ll!!! :wink:

Did anyone of you see that, I mean Mudi 4 NoBull, coming? IF SS abandons Hindutva, I can see a path for Modi getting it!
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 14:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 13 Nov 2019 14:48

abhijitm wrote:Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.

I am suspecting sena was planning and waiting for a right opportunity to break away from hindutva and stick to local identity politics. Their core voters' key issue is marathi identity anyway and for them hindutva comes second. So I would not surprised to see SS adopt a new face of secularism plus local identity.


100% bang on.
Marathi manoos identity play can be very powerful even though it gets diluted in the face of fact that last time when SS was in power, They chose a UP wala instead of Marathi manoos as CM.
SS was a powerful force but its time is up. They have nothing to offer to Mubaikars except for loutness.
UT got lucky in 2014 since voters were not sure and there was strong anti-incumbency against the govt. Without BJP support, he is looking at less than 40 MLA's in next elections.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sajo » 13 Nov 2019 14:57

abhijitm wrote:Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.


A few days before the election, I got chatty with the facilities staff at my organisation, both of them "Kattar Shivsainiks" , in their own words(tiger photo on bike, photo with local leader in whatsapp DP types). It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP. I would say then UT was right in identifying the pulse of the cadres, though my sample is really small.
If anything, I would say DF dodged a bullet by not being stuck in a bad bickering marriage, which would have meant draining all energies pacifying the partner instead of focussing on more productive things.
Admirably though, if its anyone who is going on as usual, its the caretaker CM. None of the chestthumping, bluster or empty talk over the past few days, quietly going on with his duties. I am saddened to see him not coming back.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 15:05

sajo21 wrote:A few days before the election, I got chatty with the facilities staff at my organisation, both of them "Kattar Shivsainiks" , in their own words(tiger photo on bike, photo with local leader in whatsapp DP types). It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP. I would say then UT was right in identifying the pulse of the cadres, though my sample is really small.
This is why BJP must wait for SS and NCP/CON to come to an agreement and move only after that. Let the SS voters, caders and MLAs see the kind of deal that UT gets with NCP/CON. This has been my point from the beginning. Long-rope and patience.

sajo21 wrote:If anything, I would say DF dodged a bullet by not being stuck in a bad bickering marriage, which would have meant draining all energies pacifying the partner instead of focussing on more productive things.
Perhaps why BJP stuck to its guns.

sajo21 wrote:Admirably though, if its anyone who is going on as usual, its the caretaker CM. None of the chestthumping, bluster or empty talk over the past few days, quietly going on with his duties. I am saddened to see him not coming back.
In continuation of my first point, there is nothing to do "publicly" before SS comes to an in-principle aggrement with NCP/CON.

DF/AS/Modi know the value of patience and silence. There would be hectic backroom activities though. Do NOT judge by public appearances. Btw, IF BJP had given up, it would have allowed SS and NCP the time they sought instead of imposing President's rule. Elementary!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sajo » 13 Nov 2019 15:16

There are also murmurs of replacing Fadnavis as the CM face with Chandrakant Patil, to appease the Maratha lobby within BJP as well as sympathizers within NCP. Thats why the hectic move of his constituency to Kothrud (the Wayanad of BJP).

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 13 Nov 2019 15:18

sajo21 wrote:There are also murmurs of replacing Fadnavis as the CM face with Chandrakant Patil, to appease the Maratha lobby within BJP as well as sympathizers within NCP. Thats why the hectic move of his constituency to Kothrud (the Wayanad of BJP).

My guess: 2 Deputy CM - One Maratha and one SS or SS split.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 13 Nov 2019 15:22

Vikas wrote:Marathi manoos identity play can be very powerful even though it gets diluted in the face of fact that last time when SS was in power, They chose a UP wala instead of Marathi manoos as CM.
.

Who are you talking about? The only 2 SS CM’s till now are Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane, both Maharashtrian. There has been no non-maharashtrian CM of MH.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 13 Nov 2019 15:23

sajo21 wrote:It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP.

What where their reasons to feel that BJP gave SS a raw deal? One, SS folks may have a feeling that they are the most supreme and by default BJP should be playing the second fiddle. I remember reading this some where (atleast 5-6 years back, when DF became the CM). Shiv Sena folks had this concept of them being the "Tiger" who always came to the rescue of the Damsel in distress Kamla Bhai (* Kamal = Lotus = BJP). But off late Kamla Bhai started getting feminazi tendencies, with the tiger reduced to being a circus tiger. Don't know if that led to the bad blood among the two.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2019 15:26

nachiket wrote:
Vikas wrote:Marathi manoos identity play can be very powerful even though it gets diluted in the face of fact that last time when SS was in power, They chose a UP wala instead of Marathi manoos as CM.
.

Who are you talking about? The only 2 SS CM’s till now are Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane, both Maharashtrian. There has been no non-maharashtrian CM of MH.


on level 2 :mrgreen:

maratha, brahmin and what not.

fadnavis is non maratha and also very successful and most effective.

That scares the crap out of a lot of regional, rural satraps and their entrenched maratha networks
Last edited by chetak on 13 Nov 2019 15:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sajo » 13 Nov 2019 15:29

Sachin wrote:What where their reasons to feel that BJP gave SS a raw deal?


Campaign visibility for SS was one as it was all a DF/Modi blitzkrieg, and the feeling that ministership talks had already failed. Though I feel its Sena's own doing, and if they wanted to have the visibility, they should have been part of the Maha Jan-Aadesh Yatras by stepping down from the lofty pedestals of Matoshree.


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