2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[pankajs]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/ma ... 86063.html
Maharashtra Govt Formation LIVE: Shiv Sena Claims President's Rule in State a 'Scripted Act'

Yesterdin, Sena had backed off from pushing its petition filed with the SC and now this. Sena was comfortable yesterday but not today! What has changed?

[Rupesh]

Rafael case dismissed. Now only Raga's contempt case pending.

[abhijitm]

https://twitter.com/rahulkanwal/status/1194613788927918080

Rahul Kanwal @rahulkanwal

Shiv Sena is increasingly convinced that Sharad Pawar is playing a double game. Thackerays no longer certain of NCP’s real motives, which is why Udhav opened direct line with Cong leaders. At this moment Cong seems more keen on partnering with Sena than NCP. Wheels within wheels.

NCP and Cong both are playing games now fully knowing SS is under their thumb.

Fun would be if BJP declare they have closed the door for SS. This will left SS with zero negotiation power with ncp and cong.

[abhijitm]

Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism

News is cong is now not interested in dy CM post. More bargaining going on.

[pankajs]

NCP and Cong both are playing games now fully knowing SS is under their thumb.

Fun would be if BJP declare they have closed the door for SS. This will left SS with zero negotiation power with ncp and cong.

Yesterdin, Shah gave an interview especially to address the MH situation where he squarely put the blame for the collapse of the mahayuti at the doors of Sena. Being the smart politician that he is, that is as far as he will go to stress BJP's original position. He knows that will add to Sena's pressure without closing the door.

Now, we have to watch out for counter-fire from Sena, either from Raut or on Samna edit. Sena's reply and its tone will be a good indicator of its optimism on the negotiations that are happening.

[pankajs]

News is cong is now not interested in dy CM post. More bargaining going on.

NCP/CON are sensing Sena's desperation to strike a deal and CON seems to think it too can have its own CM on rotation. More the merrier. Good!

Sena's mistake was that it went too hot on BJP and publicly. To compound that it seemed too eager to strike a deal with NCP/CON. My best is that NCP at least, tested the eagerness of Sena by stopping the letters of support when Sena has a chance at government formation.

[abhijitm]

NCP and Cong both are playing games now fully knowing SS is under their thumb.

Fun would be if BJP declare they have closed the door for SS. This will left SS with zero negotiation power with ncp and cong.

Yesterdin, Shah gave an interview especially to address the MH situation where he squarely put the blame for the collapse of the mahayuti at the doors of Sena. Being the smart politician that he is, that is as far as he will go to stress BJP's original position. He knows that will add to Sena's pressure without closing the door.

Now, we have to watch out for counter-fire from Sena, either from Raut or on Samna edit. Sena's reply and its tone will be a good indicator of its optimism on the negotiations that are happening.

SS motormouth has replied AS today by taking oath on BT that he didn't lie, and that AS agreed to give CM post. Raut also said AS is trying to hide this from Modi.

[pankajs]

Ok then. Sena will get something between what it deserves and what it can negotiate in the Sena-NCP-CON combine. Theek hai.

[Sachin]

"No Roving Inquiry Needed": On Rafale, Top Court Rejects Review Petitions
SC cautions Rahul Gandhi, lets him off in Rafale contempt case

So looks like Rafale case is also now hit its logical conclusion. Congress & "Seculars" - 0 & BJP & "Communals" - 1

[Vikas]

So putting hat on as a loyal & optimistic congress worker:

If Congress doesn't strike a deal with SS and BJP top brass want to do nothing with SS, This would most likely result in elections in next 6-9 months.
With NCP+Cong fighting together while SS and BJP fighting elections separately and throwing mud at each other, There is a distinct possibility that UPA maybe in a pole position to form govt. Why then waste time and energy on SS and get tarred knowing fully well that SS would pull the plug on the alliance as soon as its their time to give up the CMship.
BJP and SS will eat into each others share while UPA which currently is closer to 100 mark may win 20-30 extra seats which they lost by lower margin last time and form govt.

Yes there are ifs and buts in this line of thought but every scenario will have its own ifs and buts.

[chetak]

twitter

There seems to be a huge game plan being drawn to politicize the suicide on IITM.

Since the name of Milind Brahme has appeared, advisor for Ambedkar Periyar study circle, both CPM and DMK have gone silent. Milind organized the Beef festival in IIT , a notorious anti-Hindu.

twitter

Death Of Fathima Latheef -Communalising A Suicide.
A Purported’Suicide Note’ Circulated In Social Media Used To Inject Sinister Communal-Caste Undertones. BTW Faculties Allegedly Accused In The Note Includes A Ambedkar-Periyarist Circle Guide.

[syam]

Only in our country, a person from chor family can accuse an honest leader as chor and the court gives verdict about the honest leader is not chor any more. So many wrong things normalized in our society that people became numb to these things.

[Rsatchi]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/maharashtra-govt-formation-live-congress-ncp-may-hold-talks-in-delhi-to-discuss-shiv-sena-tie-up-end-logjam-2386063.html
Maharashtra Govt Formation LIVE: Shiv Sena Claims President's Rule in State a 'Scripted Act'

Yesterdin, Sena had backed off from pushing its petition filed with the SC and now this. Sena was comfortable yesterday but not today! What has changed?[/quote]

I feel three things this morning:
1.Rafale verdict giving clean chit
2.RaGa being let off
3.Sabarimal referred to larger bench
Congress more confident that there is no contempt case against RaGa
BJP/Hindutva cant go full force with a hold of Sabarimala so gives breathing space for SS also any backlash for joining 'sikular' politics
Rafale is a dead horse and nobody is interested in it anymore now.
Also direct channel between SS n Cong is emboldening SS motormouth(Who was ordered by Doctors to talk less ) to restart the engine so to speak.
A three way split of CM would be interesting as who will get two years and who will settle for 18 months.
A noob pooch where is the money coming for Resort/Hotel bills???
A 'Udhyogapati' involved in these shenanigans??

[chetak]

"No Roving Inquiry Needed": On Rafale, Top Court Rejects Review Petitions
SC cautions Rahul Gandhi, lets him off in Rafale contempt case

So looks like Rafale case is also now hit its logical conclusion. Congress & "Seculars" - 0 & BJP & "Communals" - 1

PIL should be heard only by the lower courts.

no need for the SC to burden itself with such a litany of political whines as is usually the normal subject matter of 99.99% of the PILs

[chetak]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/maharashtra-govt-formation-live-congress-ncp-may-hold-talks-in-delhi-to-discuss-shiv-sena-tie-up-end-logjam-2386063.html
Maharashtra Govt Formation LIVE: Shiv Sena Claims President's Rule in State a 'Scripted Act'

Yesterdin, Sena had backed off from pushing its petition filed with the SC and now this. Sena was comfortable yesterday but not today! What has changed?

I feel three things this morning:
1.Rafale verdict giving clean chit
2.RaGa being let off
3.Sabarimal referred to larger bench
Congress more confident that there is no contempt case against RaGa
BJP/Hindutva cant go full force with a hold of Sabarimala so gives breathing space for SS also any backlash for joining 'sikular' politics
Rafale is a dead horse and nobody is interested in it anymore now.
Also direct channel between SS n Cong is emboldening SS motormouth(Who was ordered by Doctors to talk less ) to restart the engine so to speak.
A three way split of CM would be interesting as who will get two years and who will settle for 18 months.
A noob pooch where is the money coming for Resort/Hotel bills???
A 'Udhyogapati' involved in these shenanigans?? [/quote]

the SS cannot prove its majority in a floor test as it still does not have the very very elusive letters of support hence it will not profit from pushing for an early date.

and the way things are going, the SS seems to have missed the bus and now the NCP/congi lot are in the driver's seat, desperately jostling for the control of the steering wheel.

SS is now the forlorn conductor in a bus full of entitled and habitual ticketless travellers intent on getting a free ride.

the only guys who would have profited with some cold, hard cash are some of the independents.

[Rsatchi]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-g ... -topscroll
This and after the SPG withdrawal there was news report of how many time RaGa went abroad without SPG cover.
Pun aside where was he headed. Only concern is has he been hobnobbing with the 'Dragon' and by default with TSP
To a certain extent he was more focussed during 2019 elections that the previous one.
Have the TSP/Chin/Ruskies involved in any way as the idiot would have restarted the gravy train for imports of useless kind for Ruskies and at the time keep TSP/Chin happy with nonsensical buildup
Should not the Government try and nail it if he were on to some untoward/dangerous/duplicitous diplomacy

[ArjunPandit]

^^SS lost big time, they were getting Dy CM, revenue ministry, which is like the most imp post after CM. They are deprived of cash..just for UT/AT's ambitions they have self torpedoed their long term survival.

[abhijitm]

The biggest giveaway that SS are lying through their teeth about 50-50 formula was immediately after the result, on the day of result first reaction from SS was 50-50. Now here are the faultlines. They said:
1. 50-50 was agreed, that too by AS himself
2. SS was requested to keep quiet about it as BJP will need some convincing within ranks.

These are SS words.

If it was agreed then why the first reaction after the result was to remind 50-50? If SS needs to remind the ally then SS was not sure about it in first place! Why not sure when AS - the second tallest leader of bjp - promised! Then secondly, even when SS were asked to keep quiet why revealed immediately, didn't you want to give some time to bjp to break the news in its ranks? So SS tried to backstab AS by making the agreement public even before BJP speaks to their MLAs? Doesn't make sense. Only sense out of this that these UT and SR bafoons are lying and shamelessly taking oath of a dead man.

[sajo]

Only concern is has he been hobnobbing with the 'Dragon' and by default with TSP

Maybe government is glossing over this because if not for him, TSP and the Hans may try to get someone less likely to make a spectacular hash of everything he sets out to do.
RaGa is RAA a gent onlee ji.

Noob question : So if not for SPG, does RaGa travel/move around without any kind of security cover in Phoren land or his hosts ( I am assuming he is hosted) take that responsibility?

Only sense out of this that these UT and SR bafoons are lying and shamelessly taking oath of a dead man.

See, here too keeping an escape Raut open.. What more harm can come to a dead man if whatever they are swearing about does not come true.

[chetak]

I am very sure that the GoI knows every minute detail of pappu and family and all their visits abroad.

It is not possible to run a govt without the impact assessment and risk analysis of the offshore activities of such people.

If anyone is a security risk, then who pays the price.

forget about court cases, FIRs and the like. what happens if some sensitive matters have been compromised by passing on information or someone is compromised and blackmailed.

never understood the messaging of pappu hobnobbing with the han ambassador in dilli right in the midst of the doklam crisis.

[Vips]

So putting hat on as a loyal & optimistic congress worker:

If Congress doesn't strike a deal with SS and BJP top brass want to do nothing with SS, This would most likely result in elections in next 6-9 months.
With NCP+Cong fighting together while SS and BJP fighting elections separately and throwing mud at each other, There is a distinct possibility that UPA maybe in a pole position to form govt. Why then waste time and energy on SS and get tarred knowing fully well that SS would pull the plug on the alliance as soon as its their time to give up the CMship.
BJP and SS will eat into each others share while UPA which currently is closer to 100 mark may win 20-30 extra seats which they lost by lower margin last time and form govt.

Yes there are ifs and buts in this line of thought but every scenario will have its own ifs and buts.

You are not seeing the other scenario: NCP/Congress will get the first shot at CM ship, they enjoy it for 2.5 years and then pull the plug when it is the turn of SS. NCP is already insisting on getting the CM chair for the first 2.5 yaers as per some report.

[chetak]

So putting hat on as a loyal & optimistic congress worker:

If Congress doesn't strike a deal with SS and BJP top brass want to do nothing with SS, This would most likely result in elections in next 6-9 months.
With NCP+Cong fighting together while SS and BJP fighting elections separately and throwing mud at each other, There is a distinct possibility that UPA maybe in a pole position to form govt. Why then waste time and energy on SS and get tarred knowing fully well that SS would pull the plug on the alliance as soon as its their time to give up the CMship.
BJP and SS will eat into each others share while UPA which currently is closer to 100 mark may win 20-30 extra seats which they lost by lower margin last time and form govt.

Yes there are ifs and buts in this line of thought but every scenario will have its own ifs and buts.

You are not seeing the other scenario: NCP/Congress will get the first shot at CM ship, they enjoy it for 2.5 years and then pull the plug when it is the turn of SS. NCP is already insisting on getting the CM chair for the first 2.5 yaers as per some report.

exactly like what the SS was planning to do to Modi.

They would have pulled the plug after massive plunder and blamed the BJP for forcing the SS to break another imagined wish that the "founder" had whispered in UT's ear.

exactly what HDK did to yeddy in KAR after completing his half of the CM term and refusing to hand over power.

I'm sure that both UT and AT actually thought that they had come up with a very innovative and unique way to scam the BJP.

[pankajs]

From a Kharge Jr. ... unable to dictate and unable to digest the verdict.

https://twitter.com/PriyankKharge/statu ... 1199632384

Priyank Kharge / ಪ್ರಿಯಾಂಕ್ ಖರ್ಗೆ @PriyankKharge

On expected lines.
Something is amiss in SC.
#RafaleVerdict

To which ..
https://twitter.com/Being_Humor/status/ ... 4336552962

Dr. Maithun @Being_Humor

and that's control of Congress.

[pankajs]

Point!

https://twitter.com/rahulroushan/status ... 1409705984

Rahul Roushan @rahulroushan

Persons fighting Golwalkar and Savarkar every day decades after their death are asking why are Bhakts still fighting Nehru.

[pankajs]

FWIW ...

https://twitter.com/AskAnshul/status/11 ... 5497482243

Anshul Saxena @AskAnshul

There are more than 16,000 Madrasas in Uttar Pradesh.

Now, UP Madarsa students to be trained in NCC, NSS.

Earlier, Yogi Govt decided to introduce NCERT syllabus in the Madrassas and hold exams similar to the UP board’s examinations.

IF this is true at least some change has started to be made to modernize the education imparted in the Madarsas.

[pankajs]

With a bucket of salt. BJP too can do propaganda and there is no other corroboration. Such a news is difficult to supress for long.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/maha ... ion/515121
Maharashtra: Internal revolt in Shiv Sena? MLAs question Thackerays’ insistence on CM post, leave hotel [Updated Nov 14, 2019 | 10:54 IST]

According to Times Now, huge unrest among the MLAs has forced Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray to let the legislators go back to their respective constituencies.

On Tuesday and Wednesday nights, major ugly scenes were witnessed at the hotel when the MLAs got engaged in abusive arguments and fights also broke out, said sources. In the wake of the unrest, Shiv Sena MLA Aaditya Thackeray had rushed to the hotel on Tuesday night. The similar unrest forced Uddhav Thackeray to visit the MLAs last night.

The report suggested that the MLAs had begun to question the decision of the Thackearys’ on the CM position, asking why the entire party was being held to ransom for one post that would benefit only the Thackeray family.

Uddhav Thackeray’s decision to join hands with NCP chief Sharad Pawar has also not gone down well with the MLAs.

An MLA has reportedly warned Uddhav that Pawar will never let the Shiv Sena chief wrest control of the government and will take away all the lucrative Cabinet berths.

The MLAs also allegedly asked the Thackerays as to how they will explain to their electorate that they are going with those parties against whom they had campaigned against in the polls.

Very uncharacteristic of disciplined Senanis in light of what we have been lead to believe on this forum by members for the state. May be fake news spread by BJP to create more chaos.

[pankajs]

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/pres ... 30851.html
[17:16 (IST)] Don't see Shiv Sena joining NDA again: Ram Madhav

BJP leader Ram Madhav slammed the Shiv Sena for the ongoing political crisis in Maharashtra and said that it was "unlikely" that the saffron party would be invited to be part of the National Democratic Alliane (NDA) again.

Speaking to CNN-News18 on Thursday, Madhav also criticised Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut and said that "he is like Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray's Joseph Goebbels"

Strongest statement by BJP on Sena so far. They are moving further apart.

Meanwhile
[17:56 (IST)] Congress, Shiv Sena, NCP hold joint meeting

The Congress, Shiv Sena and NCP held a joint meeting in Mumbai to refine an agreement of a possible alliance between them and also held further discussion on the Common Minimum Programme on Thursday.

[pankajs]

Good one for those who understand good Hindi .. Take on Ravish Kumar's daily RR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiE7Z1Kysgc

[abhijitm]

raids on BMC contractors today.

[pankajs]

raids on BMC contractors today.

Anyone thought the BJP will let it slide kya?

Once NCP/CON have deflated SS in state government formation by keeping most of the big portfolios, BJP will try to deprive the Sena of its fallback ATM in the BMC.

[ramana]

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/president-rule-in-maharashtra-live-updates-maharashtra-government-formation-article-356-latest-news-ram-nath-kovind-uddhav-thackeray-sharad-pawar-ncp-congress-bjp-governor-meeting-today-7630851.html
[17:16 (IST)] Don't see Shiv Sena joining NDA again: Ram Madhav

BJP leader Ram Madhav slammed the Shiv Sena for the ongoing political crisis in Maharashtra and said that it was "unlikely" that the saffron party would be invited to be part of the National Democratic Alliane (NDA) again.

Speaking to CNN-News18 on Thursday, Madhav also criticised Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut and said that "he is like Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray's Joseph Goebbels"

Strongest statement by BJP on Sena so far. They are moving further apart.

Meanwhile
[17:56 (IST)] Congress, Shiv Sena, NCP hold joint meeting

The Congress, Shiv Sena and NCP held a joint meeting in Mumbai to refine an agreement of a possible alliance between them and also held further discussion on the Common Minimum Programme on Thursday.

Could have said Raut is Shiv Sena's Bahgdad Bob or ISPR's Faking Gafooria.

[pankajs]

Rahul baba never learns. Is he again falling for a BJP trap?

https://twitter.com/RahulGandhi/status/ ... 4894215174

Rahul Gandhi @RahulGandhi

Justice Joseph of the Supreme Court has opened a huge door into investigation of the RAFALE scam.

An investigation must now begin in full earnest. A Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) must also be set up to probe this scam.

#BJPLiesOnRafale

No matter what he does or says or who he quotes, SC has junked the Rafale plea. Without fresh material no movement can occur BUT he can try. Neither the courts nor the public believes there is any offense or case. The harder he bangs on the issue the more he will end up damaging himself. IF he did not get traction before the SC clean chit does he think he will get get any after it! He needs to change advisors.

BJP would be praying that he makes it into a big issue so that they can remove focus from other genuine issues to this dead one.

Btw, this tweet has received 19K likes till now! Most of his vocal SM supporters are as foolish as him.

[pankajs]

Floating in twitter. Turdesai is as faithfool as a durbari and to his bias as ever.

He does not let go of any opportunity to inject poison or spin to discredit Modi/BJP or a verdict that goes in favor of Modi/BJP. His latest ..

[pankajs]

[ramana]

Floating in twitter. Turdesai is as faithfool as a durbari and to his bias as ever.

He does not let go of any opportunity to inject poison or spin to discredit Modi/BJP or a verdict that goes in favor of Modi/BJP. His latest ..

This is tantamount to contempt of court and Turdesai should be hauled up.

[A_Gupta]

Indian foreign policy - important speech
https://mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements. ... cture_2019

The purposeful pursuit of national interest in shifting global dynamics may not be easy; but it must be done. And the real obstacle to the rise of India is not anymore the barriers of the world, but the dogmas of Delhi.

[Sanju]

Good one for those who understand good Hindi .. Take on Ravish Kumar's daily RR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiE7Z1Kysgc

That was awesome! Thanks for the link.

[A_Gupta]

^^^^

As we move decisively to combat separatism in Jammu & Kashmir, there is some talk today of its internationalization and hyphenation of our ties with Pakistan. This is thinking from the past, reflecting neither the strength of India, the mood of the nation nor the determination of the Government. Uninformed comments abroad on our internal affairs is hardly internationalization. And the reputational and real differences between India and Pakistan puts paid to any hyphenation effort. In reality, these fears are but a thinly disguised advocacy of inaction. Their intent, conscious or otherwise, is to legitimize a status quo that has now been overtaken by history.

[vijayk]

Having a sad feeling to see these SS scums collaborate with Italian MAFIA gang to screw India. This kind of human garbage has been the India's misfortune since centuries. How are MAD allowing this?

[Vips]

raids on BMC contractors today.

Anyone thought the BJP will let it slide kya?

Once NCP/CON have deflated SS in state government formation by keeping most of the big portfolios, BJP will try to deprive the Sena of its fallback ATM in the BMC.

BMC and by extension the Shit Sena have been shamelessly awarding contracts to firms which were repeatedly blacklisted by BMC itself for faulty services. There is a cabal of half dozen companies and its subsidiaries which corner all contracts. The BMC has awarded contracts by even disregarding court orders.
Amit shah can easily put the heat on the owners of these companies to squeal who the ultimate receipt of all the kick backs is and then the fun will begin. UT needs third degree treatment pronto.