2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7226
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 15 Nov 2019 04:39

vijayk wrote:Having a sad feeling to see these SS scums collaborate with Italian MAFIA gang to screw India. This kind of human garbage has been the India's misfortune since centuries. How are MAD allowing this?

What exactly can MAD do? SS have shown their true colors to the people. It is up to the people to punish them when the next elections come around. Till then MAD can sit back and let them try to make this unholy marriage work. As we have seen from UP, Bihar and Karnataka these kind of alliances have a tendency to collapse under their own weight.

greatde
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 19
Joined: 29 Sep 2016 10:39

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 15 Nov 2019 10:14

vijayk wrote:Having a sad feeling to see these SS scums collaborate with Italian MAFIA gang to screw India. This kind of human garbage has been the India's misfortune since centuries. How are MAD allowing this?


Absolutely. Its not the Shiv Sena anymore, its a Uddhav-Raut party or rather Shiv Sena (Secular). thats how the sickulars will justify this alliance.

More than SS, its the NCP-Con where rebellion should happen, yet no resignation has happened at all..

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 10:24

nachiket wrote:
vijayk wrote:Having a sad feeling to see these SS scums collaborate with Italian MAFIA gang to screw India. This kind of human garbage has been the India's misfortune since centuries. How are MAD allowing this?

What exactly can MAD do? SS have shown their true colors to the people. It is up to the people to punish them when the next elections come around. Till then MAD can sit back and let them try to make this unholy marriage work. As we have seen from UP, Bihar and Karnataka these kind of alliances have a tendency to collapse under their own weight.

That might be plan D. We still don't know BJP's game.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 11:08

From last night ..

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/pres ... 30851.html
Common minimum programme draft is ready: Shiv Sena
Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, speaking to the media after the Congress,Shiv Sena, and NCP joint meeting to strike up a possible alliance on Thursday, said, "Common Minimum Programme was discussed in the meeting,and a draft has been prepared. The draft will be sent to high command of three parties for discussion, final decision will be taken by high commands."

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6293
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 15 Nov 2019 12:35

With one shot, UT has brought down the mythical power of SS to the level of HDK and CBN who are willing to stand behind Italian Mafia and Dawood supporters to get a corner of CM chair.

Forget BJP, There is another possibility that SS MLA's would break away and get supported by NCP + Cong + Others and continue in govt if UT tries to pull the plug after 2 years.
So many possibilities, so many scenario's and on top, we are still waiting for BJP to make its move.

sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 326
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 15 Nov 2019 12:38

Do these top-level Chanakyas of Shiv Sena realize the amount of disgust they have managed to generate among people of Maharashtra and Shiv Sainiks? It is the beginning of the end.

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3610
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 15 Nov 2019 13:02

sanjayc wrote:Do these top-level Chanakyas of Shiv Sena realize the amount of disgust they have managed to generate among people of Maharashtra and Shiv Sainiks? It is the beginning of the end.


Is there any evidence of that? The voters of Maharashtra gave ~100 seats to NCP + Cong and another 50+ to SS. Then why would they be disgusted, should the three come together?

kittoo
BRFite
Posts: 933
Joined: 08 Mar 2009 02:08

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kittoo » 15 Nov 2019 13:18

Overall not a positive development for BJP, India and Maharashtra. Shivsena has kept up the age old tradition of Indians stabbing Indians in the back just for some scraps of money and power, all the while enabling the enemies of Bharat.
Lets see where it goes. I am not as hopeful about people of Maharashtra punishing anyone for this. Maharashtra is incredibly divided over caste and what not and will keep supporting their parties.
May Uddhav and his ilk rot in hell, but this impotent rage is about all we can do now. Hopefully MAD have other plans.

Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8117
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Pratyush » 15 Nov 2019 13:21

Why do you think that MAD have other plans. They are human beings and can make mistakes.

The question is why were they not able to predict that SS will act in this way.

Especially when it fought the last election seperately from the NDA.

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3610
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 15 Nov 2019 13:26

kittoo wrote:Maharashtra is incredibly divided over caste and what not and will keep supporting their parties.


You could say that about all of India.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6293
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 15 Nov 2019 13:42

SS gets the CM'ship atleast for few years as per the latest news.

ShyamSP
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2396
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ShyamSP » 15 Nov 2019 13:43

Pratyush wrote:Why do you think that MAD have other plans. They are human beings and can make mistakes.

The question is why were they not able to predict that SS will act in this way.

Especially when it fought the last election seperately from the NDA.


I hope they have other plans such as it is okay lose now but win later when it matters

BJP is seeing its limits and this episode may dent its RS seats progress. If BJP and SS had fought separately both would have gotten less seats and NCP+INC could have garnered another 20-30. Now INC can start flexing more power slowly and attract back its offshoots. It has MH, Punjab, Rajsthan, MH, CG and soon may get KL, TN, AP, Guj. BJP is losing allies and isolated from others and may not attract new ones when they need it in the near future.

abhijitm
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3679
Joined: 08 Jun 2006 15:02
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 13:52

Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 14:03

While the immediate plans of BJP don't seem to be working ... it will all work out in the end. Just need to be bide time.

What is ruled out at this stage is Plan A i.e. BJP+CON with DF as CM. Sena, it seems from reports, has secured CMship for the full 5 years term. BJP cannot match that and that possibility is truly over.

The other options are still open ..

Plan B: BJP + Split
Plan C: BJP + NCP
Plan D: Sena/NCP/CON for 6-12 months. This formation is not going to last beyond a year. BJP might prefer that option depending on what they calculate.

There is going to be some trying times over the next 2-4 months. Chill folks and enjoy the show whatever it is.

abhijitm
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3679
Joined: 08 Jun 2006 15:02
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 14:08

No party is going to split.
Unlike SS, NCP will not break pre poll alliance and support BJP
If BJP allows them to continue then high probability of this government lasting full term.

My preference would be get SC to call for new election.

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3610
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 15 Nov 2019 14:13

abhijitm wrote:Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.


I don't think that is legally tenable at all.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 14:17

Kashi wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.


I don't think that is legally tenable at all.

Quite right. Alliance does not come under anti-defection law. SC cannot have a say in alliance formation or dissolution. That is the prerogative of the parties in question.

If NCP will not break alliance or BJP cannot split Sena or NCP or CON then expect BJP to sit in the opposition. The Sena/NCP/CON formation is not workable and is bound to fail in 6-12 months. Karnataka JUD/CON alliance was much more aligned in terms of ideologies but it did not last.

BJP will bet on Plan D if Plan B & C don't fructify. Either ways, enjoy the show. No point in getting tense when AS/Modi, the best in the game, are in the arena.
Last edited by pankajs on 15 Nov 2019 14:24, edited 1 time in total.

abhijitm
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3679
Joined: 08 Jun 2006 15:02
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 14:24

Kashi wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.


I don't think that is legally tenable at all.

In my opinion it does come under criminal law (mass cheating) instead of election framework.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 14:31

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/m ... 2019-11-15
Maharashtra govt likely to be formed within 20 days: NCP's Nawab Malik
NCP leader Nawab Malik has said the government is likely to be formed in 20 days and added that the CM will be from Shiv Sena. He added that a final decision on government formation will be taken after the meeting between Sonia Gandhi and Sharad Pawar.
Confirmation by NCP that Sena gets CMship for 5 years. Theek hai.

I am interested in the common minimum program. Will it have the CON's proposed "Muslim reservation" and "Sena silence on Hindutva"?

BJP, as the opposition can make quite a lot of capital if both of the above is retained. BJP can start by moving a proposal to recommend "Bharat Ratna" to Savarkar in the Maha assembly and ask for a vote. That would be an interesting experiment.

After all, Sena/UT have made more noise on Savarkar than BJP/DF plus Savarkar fits in with Sena's hyper-local pride platform but will annoy CON no ends. May be CON will swallow their pride and agree to this one in the interest of the alliance.Gandhi and Nehru are anyway the past but the alliance is the present and the future!

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 15:00

wokya ... CAB on the agenda.

https://twitter.com/MilanV/status/1195029337172566017
Milan Vaishnav @MilanV

Government announces that it will table the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) in the winter session of parliament to begin next week http://loksabhadocs.nic.in/bull2mk/2019/1
This bill does two big things:

1) Creates expedited citizenship for non-Muslim minorities from neighboring countries seeking refuge in India. To that extent, it could provide relief to Hindus left off of the National Register of Citizens (NCR) in Assam.
And 2) It also includes a new provision that enables the Govt to revoke any individual's Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) status if the OCI holder is in violation of *any* Indian law.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 15:03

Point ..

https://twitter.com/jgopikrishnan70/sta ... 7177431040
J Gopikrishnan @jgopikrishnan70

Seven Judges Bench seems to be a long time affair. The current Bench, CJI retires tomorrow, Justices Indu Malhotra in March 2021, Nariman in August 2021, Khanwilkar in July 2022, Chandrachud to be CJI in Nov 2022 retire in Nov 2024. So new faces with Chandrachud in 7 Bench

greatde
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 19
Joined: 29 Sep 2016 10:39

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 15 Nov 2019 17:10

Jharkhand is a worry. AJSU seemingly breaking alliance, little momentum/wave despite 370 and RJB. A probable low turnout, BJP gets its regular vote share of around 30s while consolidation of opponents gets +40%. Have BJP already given up?

sajo
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 59
Joined: 01 Mar 2019 17:01

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sajo » 15 Nov 2019 17:41

greatde wrote:Have BJP already given up?


Seems so, and the all parties seem to have already gotten a whiff of it. They certainly seem to have given up on Maharashtra. A strategic loss indeed, since Congoons will certainly use the state to replenish their resources for 2024.
Why does the new alliance need 20 odd days if they have all the numbers?

Maharashtra govt likely to be formed within 20 days: NCP's Nawab Malik.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 17:59

greatde wrote:Jharkhand is a worry. AJSU seemingly breaking alliance, little momentum/wave despite 370 and RJB. A probable low turnout, BJP gets its regular vote share of around 30s while consolidation of opponents gets +40%. Have BJP already given up?

Baalakot, 370, RJB, etc are all feel good, add to the halo of the leader BUT do not fetch much vote on their own. This has been discussed many times. Unless folks understand how the voters vote they will continue to be disappointed.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 564
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 15 Nov 2019 18:17

actually bjp getting good number of votes in every election. it's us who are not able to get it. also mh drama is not over until they prove their strength on the floor. they will form alliance for sure, but won't survive for more than 10 days. it will be miracle if they do that.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3029
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Nov 2019 18:22

^^20 days to sort out the agenda/CMP and perhaps initiation/baptization of SS into the world of secularism...they may survive for few years as well. I would count on motabhai using this period to unearth scams by both SS and congress during that period so that menace of SS, NCP and congress is minimized from congress for good time to come..even with all pieces you can't occupy all the squares at the same time

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 18:57

IF the unholy alliance is successful in forming the government, expect the formation to last between 6-12 months. Nothing will change within 6 months. Ego clash, Scams, fight for capture of power and moolas will take time to develop.

The baptization of Sena has already started with NDTV pushing AT's Instafeed per some on twitter.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:03

Data point .. from one of Indian Libtard's hero.

https://twitter.com/arvindneela/status/ ... 4472781824
Aravindan @arvindneela

'The greatest man India produced in recent centuries was not Gandhi but Swami Vivekananda.' No that is not me... that was Dr. Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar.

Ref: 'Reminiscences of the Nehru Age', M.O.Mathai, p.25

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4445
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 15 Nov 2019 19:08

So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13074
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Nov 2019 19:09

Has any "sitting" CM been arrested (and convicted)? I thought Yedyoorappa of KA did but not sure. Also the late Jayalalithaa?

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:19

For interested folks .. I will dive in later if i get time BUT this Judge is giving a lot of interviews before taking office and that is unusual.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 045153.cms
The key message from Ayodhya verdict is that the dispute is now over: Sharad Arvind Bobde, CJI Designate
Last edited by pankajs on 15 Nov 2019 19:19, edited 1 time in total.

abhijitm
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3679
Joined: 08 Jun 2006 15:02
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 19:19

hanumadu wrote:So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

Hidutva was never their USP. Their voters are marathis in and around Mumbai. Hindutva was add-on which they can easily shake off without losing core votes. In fact when BT started proposing hindutva in 80s it upset many marathi supporters. Raj T tried to cash on this sentiment when he broke away from SS and formed MNS around marathi-manoos issue. Many SS voters voted MNS but then they immediately realized voting MNS was lose-lose for both MNS and SS, so they all turned back to SS. So, in nutshell most, if not all, SS voters will be absolutely fine being marathi+secular or marathi+mild hindutva or anything which has common denomination of marathi.

Prem Kumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2309
Joined: 31 Mar 2009 00:10

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Prem Kumar » 15 Nov 2019 19:30

There is a possibility of Maharashtra going the way of Tamilnadu. The BreakingIndia gameplan might be to play up regionalism & linguistic-chauvinism, while sacrificing Hinduism.

Shiv Sena might become the Dravidian party of Maharashtra

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:30

Image

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:42

Image

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 20:30

pankajs wrote:IF the unholy alliance is successful in forming the government, expect the formation to last between 6-12 months. Nothing will change within 6 months. Ego clash, Scams, fight for capture of power and moolas will take time to develop.

The baptization of Sena has already started with NDTV pushing AT's Instafeed per some on twitter.

THIS ...
https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1194940832782008321
NDTV @ndtv

The 20 loveliest photographs from Aaditya Thackeray's Instagram.
https://ndtv.com/offbeat/the-20

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4445
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 15 Nov 2019 20:48

abhijitm wrote:
hanumadu wrote:So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

Hidutva was never their USP. Their voters are marathis in and around Mumbai. Hindutva was add-on which they can easily shake off without losing core votes. In fact when BT started proposing hindutva in 80s it upset many marathi supporters. Raj T tried to cash on this sentiment when he broke away from SS and formed MNS around marathi-manoos issue. Many SS voters voted MNS but then they immediately realized voting MNS was lose-lose for both MNS and SS, so they all turned back to SS. So, in nutshell most, if not all, SS voters will be absolutely fine being marathi+secular or marathi+mild hindutva or anything which has common denomination of marathi.


But now they cannot bat for marathis either, at least not affecting congress in some way outside Maharashtra. Till recently SS had the image of being more right to BJP. Remember they dug up the pitch and poured tar in it so the test match against the pukes could not be held.

What about their support outside Mumbai? Will their vote outside Mumbai stay in tact or transfer to BJP?


chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1277
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chanakyaa » 15 Nov 2019 21:01

abhijitm wrote:
hanumadu wrote:So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

Hidutva was never their USP. Their voters are marathis in and around Mumbai. Hindutva was add-on which they can easily shake off without losing core votes. In fact when BT started proposing hindutva in 80s it upset many marathi supporters. Raj T tried to cash on this sentiment when he broke away from SS and formed MNS around marathi-manoos issue. Many SS voters voted MNS but then they immediately realized voting MNS was lose-lose for both MNS and SS, so they all turned back to SS. So, in nutshell most, if not all, SS voters will be absolutely fine being marathi+secular or marathi+mild hindutva or anything which has common denomination of marathi.

True. Hindutva wa never a thing for BT. Back in the days when major metro cities like Mumbai were major economic centers and places to get a jobs, roti, kapada, makan; it attracted people all over india. Unemployment among the locals in city was very high. BT made a career out of that. Additionally, power tussel between Guj and Marathis was also fomented for political gains. SS had a good window of 15-20 years to establish itself with good governance, but it failed. Today no one looks at SS for solving job problem. But, the SS goons have been succesaful at using age old Guj-Marathi divide again. And, with Modi-Shah at the helm at the center it is easy to revive these emotions. Unfortinately, privste conversations reveal that people in their 60s-80s continue to fall for this garbage and lean towards SS. Fortunately, this pronlem is only visible in Mumbai, Pune and few other bigger cities. With good local leadership, SS will continue to be less and less revvelant. SS and MNS are slowly turning to Mumbai thug parties. These people should be put behind bars. A massive audit of BMC and state govt of prior years is enought, before these goons start burning files at the mantralay.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12430
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 21:09

Also, as @hanumadu noted, it can't go too nativist with CON in the alliance. Like BJP, CON too has to protect it base outside of Maharashtra. The initial resistance to Sena came form CON South India camp. They must have some commitment on that too.

Anyways, AS/Modi/DF are taking it light so must we. They know the ground situation and the maneuvers better than us in the forum.

Point!
https://twitter.com/TheJaggi/status/1195229581596229632
R Jagannathan @TheJaggi

Intolerance is in-built in Abrahamic cults where even a Pope isn't spared. Pope Francis urged to REPENT by clergy after participating in ‘idolatrous worship’ of pagan goddess


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 60 guests