2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Vikas
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 15 Nov 2019 13:42

SS gets the CM'ship atleast for few years as per the latest news.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ShyamSP » 15 Nov 2019 13:43

Pratyush wrote:Why do you think that MAD have other plans. They are human beings and can make mistakes.

The question is why were they not able to predict that SS will act in this way.

Especially when it fought the last election seperately from the NDA.


I hope they have other plans such as it is okay lose now but win later when it matters

BJP is seeing its limits and this episode may dent its RS seats progress. If BJP and SS had fought separately both would have gotten less seats and NCP+INC could have garnered another 20-30. Now INC can start flexing more power slowly and attract back its offshoots. It has MH, Punjab, Rajsthan, MH, CG and soon may get KL, TN, AP, Guj. BJP is losing allies and isolated from others and may not attract new ones when they need it in the near future.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 13:52

Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 14:03

While the immediate plans of BJP don't seem to be working ... it will all work out in the end. Just need to be bide time.

What is ruled out at this stage is Plan A i.e. BJP+CON with DF as CM. Sena, it seems from reports, has secured CMship for the full 5 years term. BJP cannot match that and that possibility is truly over.

The other options are still open ..

Plan B: BJP + Split
Plan C: BJP + NCP
Plan D: Sena/NCP/CON for 6-12 months. This formation is not going to last beyond a year. BJP might prefer that option depending on what they calculate.

There is going to be some trying times over the next 2-4 months. Chill folks and enjoy the show whatever it is.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 14:08

No party is going to split.
Unlike SS, NCP will not break pre poll alliance and support BJP
If BJP allows them to continue then high probability of this government lasting full term.

My preference would be get SC to call for new election.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 15 Nov 2019 14:13

abhijitm wrote:Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.


I don't think that is legally tenable at all.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 14:17

Kashi wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.


I don't think that is legally tenable at all.

Quite right. Alliance does not come under anti-defection law. SC cannot have a say in alliance formation or dissolution. That is the prerogative of the parties in question.

If NCP will not break alliance or BJP cannot split Sena or NCP or CON then expect BJP to sit in the opposition. The Sena/NCP/CON formation is not workable and is bound to fail in 6-12 months. Karnataka JUD/CON alliance was much more aligned in terms of ideologies but it did not last.

BJP will bet on Plan D if Plan B & C don't fructify. Either ways, enjoy the show. No point in getting tense when AS/Modi, the best in the game, are in the arena.
Last edited by pankajs on 15 Nov 2019 14:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 14:24

Kashi wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Last option is to get SC to make split of pre poll alliance illegal and order a fresh election.


I don't think that is legally tenable at all.

In my opinion it does come under criminal law (mass cheating) instead of election framework.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 14:31

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/m ... 2019-11-15
Maharashtra govt likely to be formed within 20 days: NCP's Nawab Malik
NCP leader Nawab Malik has said the government is likely to be formed in 20 days and added that the CM will be from Shiv Sena. He added that a final decision on government formation will be taken after the meeting between Sonia Gandhi and Sharad Pawar.
Confirmation by NCP that Sena gets CMship for 5 years. Theek hai.

I am interested in the common minimum program. Will it have the CON's proposed "Muslim reservation" and "Sena silence on Hindutva"?

BJP, as the opposition can make quite a lot of capital if both of the above is retained. BJP can start by moving a proposal to recommend "Bharat Ratna" to Savarkar in the Maha assembly and ask for a vote. That would be an interesting experiment.

After all, Sena/UT have made more noise on Savarkar than BJP/DF plus Savarkar fits in with Sena's hyper-local pride platform but will annoy CON no ends. May be CON will swallow their pride and agree to this one in the interest of the alliance.Gandhi and Nehru are anyway the past but the alliance is the present and the future!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 15:00

wokya ... CAB on the agenda.

https://twitter.com/MilanV/status/1195029337172566017
Milan Vaishnav @MilanV

Government announces that it will table the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) in the winter session of parliament to begin next week http://loksabhadocs.nic.in/bull2mk/2019/1
This bill does two big things:

1) Creates expedited citizenship for non-Muslim minorities from neighboring countries seeking refuge in India. To that extent, it could provide relief to Hindus left off of the National Register of Citizens (NCR) in Assam.
And 2) It also includes a new provision that enables the Govt to revoke any individual's Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) status if the OCI holder is in violation of *any* Indian law.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 15:03

Point ..

https://twitter.com/jgopikrishnan70/sta ... 7177431040
J Gopikrishnan @jgopikrishnan70

Seven Judges Bench seems to be a long time affair. The current Bench, CJI retires tomorrow, Justices Indu Malhotra in March 2021, Nariman in August 2021, Khanwilkar in July 2022, Chandrachud to be CJI in Nov 2022 retire in Nov 2024. So new faces with Chandrachud in 7 Bench

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 15 Nov 2019 17:10

Jharkhand is a worry. AJSU seemingly breaking alliance, little momentum/wave despite 370 and RJB. A probable low turnout, BJP gets its regular vote share of around 30s while consolidation of opponents gets +40%. Have BJP already given up?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sajo » 15 Nov 2019 17:41

greatde wrote:Have BJP already given up?


Seems so, and the all parties seem to have already gotten a whiff of it. They certainly seem to have given up on Maharashtra. A strategic loss indeed, since Congoons will certainly use the state to replenish their resources for 2024.
Why does the new alliance need 20 odd days if they have all the numbers?

Maharashtra govt likely to be formed within 20 days: NCP's Nawab Malik.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 17:59

greatde wrote:Jharkhand is a worry. AJSU seemingly breaking alliance, little momentum/wave despite 370 and RJB. A probable low turnout, BJP gets its regular vote share of around 30s while consolidation of opponents gets +40%. Have BJP already given up?

Baalakot, 370, RJB, etc are all feel good, add to the halo of the leader BUT do not fetch much vote on their own. This has been discussed many times. Unless folks understand how the voters vote they will continue to be disappointed.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 15 Nov 2019 18:17

actually bjp getting good number of votes in every election. it's us who are not able to get it. also mh drama is not over until they prove their strength on the floor. they will form alliance for sure, but won't survive for more than 10 days. it will be miracle if they do that.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Nov 2019 18:22

^^20 days to sort out the agenda/CMP and perhaps initiation/baptization of SS into the world of secularism...they may survive for few years as well. I would count on motabhai using this period to unearth scams by both SS and congress during that period so that menace of SS, NCP and congress is minimized from congress for good time to come..even with all pieces you can't occupy all the squares at the same time

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 18:57

IF the unholy alliance is successful in forming the government, expect the formation to last between 6-12 months. Nothing will change within 6 months. Ego clash, Scams, fight for capture of power and moolas will take time to develop.

The baptization of Sena has already started with NDTV pushing AT's Instafeed per some on twitter.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:03

Data point .. from one of Indian Libtard's hero.

https://twitter.com/arvindneela/status/ ... 4472781824
Aravindan @arvindneela

'The greatest man India produced in recent centuries was not Gandhi but Swami Vivekananda.' No that is not me... that was Dr. Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar.

Ref: 'Reminiscences of the Nehru Age', M.O.Mathai, p.25

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 15 Nov 2019 19:08

So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Nov 2019 19:09

Has any "sitting" CM been arrested (and convicted)? I thought Yedyoorappa of KA did but not sure. Also the late Jayalalithaa?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:19

For interested folks .. I will dive in later if i get time BUT this Judge is giving a lot of interviews before taking office and that is unusual.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 045153.cms
The key message from Ayodhya verdict is that the dispute is now over: Sharad Arvind Bobde, CJI Designate
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 15 Nov 2019 19:19

hanumadu wrote:So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

Hidutva was never their USP. Their voters are marathis in and around Mumbai. Hindutva was add-on which they can easily shake off without losing core votes. In fact when BT started proposing hindutva in 80s it upset many marathi supporters. Raj T tried to cash on this sentiment when he broke away from SS and formed MNS around marathi-manoos issue. Many SS voters voted MNS but then they immediately realized voting MNS was lose-lose for both MNS and SS, so they all turned back to SS. So, in nutshell most, if not all, SS voters will be absolutely fine being marathi+secular or marathi+mild hindutva or anything which has common denomination of marathi.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Prem Kumar » 15 Nov 2019 19:30

There is a possibility of Maharashtra going the way of Tamilnadu. The BreakingIndia gameplan might be to play up regionalism & linguistic-chauvinism, while sacrificing Hinduism.

Shiv Sena might become the Dravidian party of Maharashtra

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:30

Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 19:42

Image

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 20:30

pankajs wrote:IF the unholy alliance is successful in forming the government, expect the formation to last between 6-12 months. Nothing will change within 6 months. Ego clash, Scams, fight for capture of power and moolas will take time to develop.

The baptization of Sena has already started with NDTV pushing AT's Instafeed per some on twitter.

THIS ...
https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1194940832782008321
NDTV @ndtv

The 20 loveliest photographs from Aaditya Thackeray's Instagram.
https://ndtv.com/offbeat/the-20

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 15 Nov 2019 20:48

abhijitm wrote:
hanumadu wrote:So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

Hidutva was never their USP. Their voters are marathis in and around Mumbai. Hindutva was add-on which they can easily shake off without losing core votes. In fact when BT started proposing hindutva in 80s it upset many marathi supporters. Raj T tried to cash on this sentiment when he broke away from SS and formed MNS around marathi-manoos issue. Many SS voters voted MNS but then they immediately realized voting MNS was lose-lose for both MNS and SS, so they all turned back to SS. So, in nutshell most, if not all, SS voters will be absolutely fine being marathi+secular or marathi+mild hindutva or anything which has common denomination of marathi.


But now they cannot bat for marathis either, at least not affecting congress in some way outside Maharashtra. Till recently SS had the image of being more right to BJP. Remember they dug up the pitch and poured tar in it so the test match against the pukes could not be held.

What about their support outside Mumbai? Will their vote outside Mumbai stay in tact or transfer to BJP?


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chanakyaa » 15 Nov 2019 21:01

abhijitm wrote:
hanumadu wrote:So after giving up Hindutva, what is SS's USP? Why will voter vote for SS in the future. Does SS have a caste base like the Marathas for NCP?

Hidutva was never their USP. Their voters are marathis in and around Mumbai. Hindutva was add-on which they can easily shake off without losing core votes. In fact when BT started proposing hindutva in 80s it upset many marathi supporters. Raj T tried to cash on this sentiment when he broke away from SS and formed MNS around marathi-manoos issue. Many SS voters voted MNS but then they immediately realized voting MNS was lose-lose for both MNS and SS, so they all turned back to SS. So, in nutshell most, if not all, SS voters will be absolutely fine being marathi+secular or marathi+mild hindutva or anything which has common denomination of marathi.

True. Hindutva wa never a thing for BT. Back in the days when major metro cities like Mumbai were major economic centers and places to get a jobs, roti, kapada, makan; it attracted people all over india. Unemployment among the locals in city was very high. BT made a career out of that. Additionally, power tussel between Guj and Marathis was also fomented for political gains. SS had a good window of 15-20 years to establish itself with good governance, but it failed. Today no one looks at SS for solving job problem. But, the SS goons have been succesaful at using age old Guj-Marathi divide again. And, with Modi-Shah at the helm at the center it is easy to revive these emotions. Unfortinately, privste conversations reveal that people in their 60s-80s continue to fall for this garbage and lean towards SS. Fortunately, this pronlem is only visible in Mumbai, Pune and few other bigger cities. With good local leadership, SS will continue to be less and less revvelant. SS and MNS are slowly turning to Mumbai thug parties. These people should be put behind bars. A massive audit of BMC and state govt of prior years is enought, before these goons start burning files at the mantralay.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 21:09

Also, as @hanumadu noted, it can't go too nativist with CON in the alliance. Like BJP, CON too has to protect it base outside of Maharashtra. The initial resistance to Sena came form CON South India camp. They must have some commitment on that too.

Anyways, AS/Modi/DF are taking it light so must we. They know the ground situation and the maneuvers better than us in the forum.

Point!
https://twitter.com/TheJaggi/status/1195229581596229632
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Intolerance is in-built in Abrahamic cults where even a Pope isn't spared. Pope Francis urged to REPENT by clergy after participating in ‘idolatrous worship’ of pagan goddess

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2019 21:19

THIS is how it should be .. Don't ask for trial. Ask for them to be handed over. Not that it will be achieved but it will shut up the busy bodies that try preaching India.

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1195234616807837696
Sidhant Sibal @sidhant
Islamabad should hand over Indians wanted for terrorist activities living in Pakistan: EAM in an interview to France's Le Monde newspaper

Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 15 Nov 2019 21:47

Reading various analyses from left to right, it seems to me that SS BJP break up is final and irrevocable. And also, short of a BJP surrender at the feet of UT, looks like SS had made up its mind to break away fearing dominance of BJP in Maharsharta and that under Gujarati tutelage. What does this say about Hindu unity? So there was a larger gameplan. But on the whole, I feel its better for BJP and better for Hinduthva than to have those thugs as allies however "Hindu" they may have been. Unbelievable how those SS chutiyas can sleep at night for falling at the feet of Sonia Gandhi whose slaves called Hindus as terrorists not too long ago.

That said, what disappoints me is that I see no discontent among the rank and file of the SS. I thought by this time there would have been some churn at the grass roots level. But I don't see much. So unless there is something going on behind the scenes, from all accounts I see Maharashtra gone from BJP's kitty and you will see a bunch of traitors and thugs in power. Also, I am not sure I agree that the alliance will not last. Simply because Congoons' real fight is with BJP and to that extent they need an important state like Maharashtra to re-build. So they won't rock SS beyond a certain point. And the SS clowns will be happy with ceremonial CM post.

If you look at the state-wide map, its a far cry from pre-Dec 2018. Large swathes of saffron have been captured by enemies of Hinduthva. BJP has its work cut out.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A Deshmukh » 15 Nov 2019 22:05

if SS-NCP-Cong govt is formed it will survive 5 years. politicians want part of the loot, they will not rock the boat.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 15 Nov 2019 22:06

^^ Why is it so easy to convince Hindus to vote for anti-Hindus?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A Deshmukh » 15 Nov 2019 22:11

sanjayc wrote:^^ Why is it so easy to convince Hindus to vote for anti-Hindus?

they do not know Congis are anti-Hindus.
NCP and Congis have widespread patronage schemes - sugarcane mills, Co-op banks, schools, hospitals.
anyone benefiting from these schemes will tend to vote accordingly.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 15 Nov 2019 22:14

Hindus couldn't comprehend the anti-Hindu nature of Gandhi and Nehru too. When Aurobindo Ghosh saw the blind workshop by Hindus of these two worthies, he said: "Hindus have lost the capacity to think." A race that cannot identify its enemies despite being stabbed again and again is heading for the Darwin Award.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 15 Nov 2019 23:15

For centuries, Hindus lived barely to survive another day. Modern day Khiljis are angels in comparison. It would take another generation before Anti-Hindus are identified and shunned.
Moreover outside the Jingo-ecosystem, Not many understand the subtleness and reach and financial power of BIF forces. Moeover foot soldiers of Con-pasand parties aren't anti-Hindu.
We did not survive for eons despite onslaught of ISIS X 1000 times by being Darwins favorite.

We Hindus are like sponge, you can squeeze us as much as you want but almost all of us will spring back to our original shape.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 16 Nov 2019 00:30

Vikas wrote:For centuries, Hindus lived barely to survive another day. Modern day Khiljis are angels in comparison. It would take another generation before Anti-Hindus are identified and shunned.
Moreover outside the Jingo-ecosystem, Not many understand the subtleness and reach and financial power of BIF forces. Moeover foot soldiers of Con-pasand parties aren't anti-Hindu.
We did not survive for eons despite onslaught of ISIS X 1000 times by being Darwins favorite.

We Hindus are like sponge, you can squeeze us as much as you want but almost all of us will spring back to our original shape.


We need an up-vote icon.

Vikasji well said!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 16 Nov 2019 00:34

A Deshmukh wrote:if SS-NCP-Cong govt is formed it will survive 5 years. politicians want part of the loot, they will not rock the boat.


That is what they said about KA and BH....

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nachiket » 16 Nov 2019 01:26

sanjayc wrote:^^ Why is it so easy to convince Hindus to vote for anti-Hindus?

State elections are not fought on Hindu - Anti-Hindu issues except in rare cases. Also it is increasingly evident from plenty of recent state elections that voters make a distinctions between who they want at the center vs who they want in the state. They seem to ignore local disagreements, problems with candidate selection, anti-incumbency etc. when voting in LS elections but all of it comes front and center in state elections. RJ, MP, CG and now MH have all shown this.

In MH there were mistakes made, like bringing in NCP rebels which ticked off BJP members who stood as independent candidates etc. plus the power of Pawar and co.'s patronage networks showing itself again (people completely ignored this for LS elections since it did not matter). So it is not a simple case of Hindus voting for anti-Hindus.

As for SS, one thing to remember is that they received a lot of votes from BJP supporters who thought they were giving Fadnavis a second term. They are all angry and will not vote for SS again. Hindutva was a tool that SS used just as they have used anti-outsider sentiment in the past. Shifting into the NCP/Cong camp means that SS will have to completely reinvent itself and appeal to people who were never SS voters traditionally. It is not going to be easy. And if they fight together with NCP in the next elections, the vote transfer is far from a done deal. On the other hand, there is no reason for NCP/Cong to fight with them together henceforth. They know BJP leaders and voters are both thoroughly disgusted with the SS and are surely not going to fight together. So why do they need SS to win? They don't. Cong/NCP combined votebank against BJP-SS split votebank is a no-contest. This is a one time thing. They will dump SS in a second once this government's term is over (if it lasts that long). SS simply does not have the means to achieve anything on their own anyway. They are finished one way or the other. Pawar will let them have their 15 minutes of fame since he needs them to grab power right now before pulling the rug from under their feet when the time is right.


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