2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 26 Nov 2019 14:53

BJP tried. Now, the seeds of discord within NCP camp has been sown. They will fructify soon. Sena would have to give way even more. Congress can't trust anyone and have to be in bed with Shiv sena. BJP can still play victim card - first by Shiv sena then by Ajit.

So, all in all. It is still a good outcome. The only accusation is that they tried to get power. As a political party, if they don't do it, then it would be bad.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 14:55

The source of the news is Samna. Lets wait.

Karnataka model is still on the table.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 14:56

pankajs wrote:The source of the news is Samna. Lets wait.

Can see it being reported as Sakal as well. Anyway, no smoke without fire, so its a done deal I guess.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 15:00

Source is still NCP and Sena. Lets wait for DF or AP to confirm.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 26 Nov 2019 15:00

Fadnavis to hold press conference at 3:30PM. Looks like he indeed resigned. Thats some big f-up here by the BJP. They were in better position before this maybe? At least had the sympathy of the public, for whatever its worth.
Though always easy to criticize in hindsight.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 15:04

kittoo wrote:Fadnavis to hold press conference at 3:30PM. Looks like he indeed resigned. Thats some big f-up here by the BJP. They were in better position before this maybe? At least had the sympathy of the public, for whatever its worth.
Though always easy to criticize in hindsight.

Sympathy doesn't take one far. Public has fickle memory. Even ABV did not get many extra seats after losing the confidence vote by a single vote.
I still believe that BJP played its card, So what if the gamble failed.
There is always tomorrow and there is always next visit to ED.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 26 Nov 2019 15:05

I think the news is legit. DD News is reporting on it.
https://twitter.com/DDNewsLive/status/1 ... 26626?s=20

jaysimha · Post by **jaysimha** » 26 Nov 2019 15:09

cant resist putting 2 lines regarding MAH fiasco,,,
.
DF ( BJP) should not have cut so many trees in araay milk colony.

They should leave Mumbai and look towards development in other regions( not that they are not doing,,, but still).

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 26 Nov 2019 15:09

Once the Sena-NCP-Con starts messing up, the public will have that in the memory. So, BJP can concentrate on ensuring they are ready next time around. So, for now, the media will play up for sometime, that's about it.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 15:11

jaysimha wrote:cant resist putting 2 lines regarding MAH fiasco,,,
.
DF ( BJP) should not have cut so many trees in araay milk colony.

BMC sir BMC...

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 15:17

vinod wrote:Once the Sena-NCP-Con starts messing up, the public will have that in the memory. So, BJP can concentrate on ensuring they are ready next time around. So, for now, the media will play up for sometime, that's about it.

Soon this all will be a distant memory. UT in CM chair with Pawar and Chavan pulling the strings will show him his true mettle. I think everyone is hoping that new govt will crash and fail spectacularly which plausible and probable but not for sure. Everyone in this game is hoping that they will come out smelling better while Aam Janta is gearing up for new round of corruption and loot. One thing is for sure that this is not the end of this drama.
NCP still anyday would jump into BJP ship given right incentive or once Pawar loses his control.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 15:21

Power is a long game and only people with patience for the long-game win. BJP can still cause upsets but their best strategy would be to wait for Sena/NCP/CON alliance to have an internal fallout and then pounce like in Karnataka.

Strong personalities are likely to rub each other the wrong way in their hunt for power and money as happened in Karnataka.

RajD · Post by **RajD** » 26 Nov 2019 15:30

Breaking news...
Big speculation : Ajit Pawar has resigned as Dy CM of Maharashtra. Devendra Fadanvis to brief media later at 3.30pm. Speculation is rife that he also has/will resign from the post.
Pawar play.....

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Nov 2019 15:35

As per fineprint of supreme court order, the pro-tem speaker has no authority to adjudicate on eligibility of party whip.

this is reason for all this buzz

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 15:43

jaysimha wrote:cant resist putting 2 lines regarding MAH fiasco,,,
.
DF ( BJP) should not have cut so many trees in araay milk colony.

They should leave Mumbai and look towards development in other regions( not that they are not doing,,, but still).

Mistakes started from 2014
1. Before 2014 election SS refused to form alliance. NCP took cue from it and decided not to form alliance with Cong, keeping their post-poll options open. BJP could not get the message who is friend and who is foe.
2. Post election when SS threw tantrum NCP offered support to BJP led government in MH. That put off SS and they agreed to form joint gov. BJP did not clearly read the signal who is friend and who is foe.
3. Before 2019 BJP local unit, especially Chandrakant dada patil, went full force against NCP and broke their ranks. When in entire 5 years NCP tried not to be in bad book of BJP whereas SS throughout 5 years made BJP life hell. Again couldn't differentiate between friend and foe.
4. Didn't learn lesson from Karnataka, assumed BJP will get simple majority and didn't have plan B C.
5. Took support from AP when SP was not on board. NCP == SP, period. Now AP will be sidelined and leverage within NCP will be lost.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 26 Nov 2019 15:48

jaysimha wrote:cant resist putting 2 lines regarding MAH fiasco,,,
.
DF ( BJP) should not have cut so many trees in araay milk colony.

They should leave Mumbai and look towards development in other regions( not that they are not doing,,, but still).

He shouldn't have desecrated shani shignapur.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 15:50

Karthik S wrote:
jaysimha wrote:cant resist putting 2 lines regarding MAH fiasco,,,
.
DF ( BJP) should not have cut so many trees in araay milk colony.

They should leave Mumbai and look towards development in other regions( not that they are not doing,,, but still).

He shouldn't have desecrated shani shignapur.

Ghor paap. Not a God to be messed up with.

syam · Post by **syam** » 26 Nov 2019 16:00

yes. df should hang his head in shame.
btw he resigned.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 26 Nov 2019 16:01

Fadnavis to resign.

Source: Fadnavis himself, at the press conference.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 16:03

Why should DF hang his head in shame, while people in the name of Shivaji Maharaj serve Delhi Durbar and Abu Azmi? Please explain the logic of this. This is a clear pre poll alliance which was not disclosed to the public. Why do the INC- NCP-SS -SP get a free pass?

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 26 Nov 2019 16:08

Gurus, what's the prediction for tomorrow's floor test? I hope BJP wins, but don't want that DF and his wife as first family of the state.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 16:13

Loudmouths like Raut would be the guns that the wily snake Sharad Pawar is going to wield with impunity going ahead. How do the statistics look of all vs BJP battles look going ahead, would likely to be seen from the MH state.

Karthik S wrote:Gurus, what's the prediction for tomorrow's floor test? I hope BJP wins, but don't want that DF and his wife as first family of the state.

Will there be one now? No sarkar no floor test?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 16:15

Why lie that we have numbers for so many days when they didn't? They lied during Karnataka, they lied in MH. Why? Breaking other parties etc. is okay, part of politics but it pains me the party I support lies for so many days and gives false hope to its supporters.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 26 Nov 2019 16:24

Yeah the only baffling thing is this only- if BJP didnt have the numbers for sure, why jump the gun? Let SS-NCP-Con rot in their own thing. Maybe Ajit Pawar indeed was a mole. A very interesting and effective play of Pawar. Almost have to admire. Didnt think BJP would go down like this, especially with MAD at helm.
Oh well, politics is a long game. We BJP supporters will have to take this L and not to take it to heart, though loss of Maharashtra for the time being is a big loss indeed.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 16:28

Guys, I expected this on Sunday morning! But now its time wean away the Shiv Sainiks in a few months time, its clear Udhav Thackerey, Aditya Thakerey and Sanjay Raut have sold them down the river other wise likes of Abu Azmi will not be supporting them.

It was Sharad pawar's negotiating tactic to ensure the INC and SS dont drag thier feet.

This Govt is too contradictory in nature- hopefully there are elections in 6 months time where Uddhav Thackerey and Co. will be punished for tying up with the wrong side.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 26 Nov 2019 16:35

So has Ajit Pawar gone back to NCP now? What a masterstroke by NCP! Though I dont know why BJP fell for it.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 16:39

kittoo wrote:So has Ajit Pawar gone back to NCP now? What a masterstroke by NCP! Though I dont know why BJP fell for it.

No problem, otherwise SS and INC where playing a drama, now they have openly come out with their agenda- this was a post poll setting but a pre poll alliance, its too contradictory for cadre who have staked all they have. It cant last for long and I believe now NCP and INC will target Shiv Sena while those at Saama and Matoshree will sell out thier cadres. IT should be less than 1 year when we have a new Govt/ in MH.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 26 Nov 2019 16:43

Karthik S wrote:He shouldn't have desecrated shani shignapur.

what did he do there?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 16:44

Aditya_V wrote:
kittoo wrote:So has Ajit Pawar gone back to NCP now? What a masterstroke by NCP! Though I dont know why BJP fell for it.
No problem, otherwise SS and INC where playing a drama, now they have openly come out with their agenda- this was a post poll setting but a pre poll alliance, its too contradictory for cadre who have staked all they have. It cant last for long and I believe now NCP and INC will target Shiv Sena while those at Saama and Matoshree will sell out thier cadres. IT should be less than 1 year when we have a new Govt/ in MH.

I too strongly feel that SP played this pre-poll understanding with SS purely out of vengence of BJP who tried to break his party even when he played nice with them.

Does any one remember Uddhav's press conference on Arrey trees issue before election? He said 'we will punish them (who cut the trees) once we come to power' and I was wondering how will he punish after the poll when he can't punish now? And now I realized he knew all along what's going to happen if BJP doesn't get majority on its own.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 26 Nov 2019 16:44

Aditya_V wrote:
kittoo wrote:So has Ajit Pawar gone back to NCP now? What a masterstroke by NCP! Though I dont know why BJP fell for it.
No problem, otherwise SS and INC where playing a drama, now they have openly come out with their agenda- this was a post poll setting but a pre poll alliance, its too contradictory for cadre who have staked all they have. It cant last for long and I believe now NCP and INC will target Shiv Sena while those at Saama and Matoshree will sell out thier cadres. IT should be less than 1 year when we have a new Govt/ in MH.

But the next government is never going to be BJP as long as these guys fight together- pre or post poll alliance.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 16:45

I will not be so sure about the talks of 1 year/6 month terms. We underestimate the adhesiveness of money. My bet is it was all Sharad Pawar game from the beginning, right from egging Uddhav on to throwing Ajit Pawar under the bus. Now he has a government who is amenable to himself, which would have been impossible with BJP.

This is serious now, will 2024 picture look similar? Everyone VS BJP? Indic forces must rally behind like never before or else we risk going back to the dark ages.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 26 Nov 2019 16:46

Will ACB reopen irrigation scam cases now?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 16:49

abhijitm wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:
No problem, otherwise SS and INC where playing a drama, now they have openly come out with their agenda- this was a post poll setting but a pre poll alliance, its too contradictory for cadre who have staked all they have. It cant last for long and I believe now NCP and INC will target Shiv Sena while those at Saama and Matoshree will sell out thier cadres. IT should be less than 1 year when we have a new Govt/ in MH.
I too strongly feel that SP played this pre-poll understanding with SS purely out of vengence of BJP who tried to break his party even when he played nice with them.

Does any one remember Uddhav's press conference on Arrey trees issue before election? He said 'we will punish them (who cut the trees) once we come to power' and I was wondering how will he punish after the poll when he can't punish now? And now I realized he knew all along what's going to happen if BJP doesn't get majority on its own.

BJP contested 150/288 seats, there was no way they would have got majority, they got 105/150 , Shiv Sena won its seats as an ally of BJP and against NCP/SP and INC who they are allied with. It is a murder of democracy. Regarding the trees there is not much option in a city like Mumbai.

Now Bullet Train, Metro work etc is going to stuck , I guess many Indians like a 7th century livestyle.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 26 Nov 2019 16:50

We should understand that this is Karnataka game being played again. Start the opposition govt on the worn footing and watch the alliance fail. Happened in Bihar, Happened in Karnataka and will happen here too. Just wait for the Karnataka govt stabilises and then watch the Maharashtra scenario.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 16:50

Guys, this is a game of smoke and mirrors. Don't count DF out yet nor one should assume that SS led Govt will bicker and fall within 2 years. So what if BJP bluffed and formed the govt, Its par for course especially when you know that Resort hopping MLA's would sell themselves to highest bidder.
Winning the mandate second time is very hard and doing it thrice in a row is stuff of legends.

Question for Udhav Thackrey: Will they now ban Namaz on the roads and public places like they have been demanding since the days of Bala Saheb ?

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 26 Nov 2019 16:51

sajo wrote:I will not be so sure about the talks of 1 year/6 month terms. We underestimate the adhesiveness of money. My bet is it was all Sharad Pawar game from the beginning, right from egging Uddhav on to throwing Ajit Pawar under the bus. Now he has a government who is amenable to himself, which would have been impossible with BJP.

This is serious now, will 2024 picture look similar? Everyone VS BJP? Indic forces must rally behind like never before or else we risk going back to the dark ages.

Indeed.
Though I am angry not at the adharmic forces. They have made their agenda clear since the beginning of time. I am angry the forces that were supposedly dharmic but aligned with adharmic forces the first chance they got.

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Nov 2019 16:54

Maharashtra has never had a mid-term poll ever since elections started being held. Once a party/coalition is sworn in it lasts for entire term. For now SP is the chankya and AS is the fastest mover off the block. For now.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 16:55

sajo wrote: This is serious now, will 2024 picture look similar? Everyone VS BJP? Indic forces must rally behind like never before or else we risk going back to the dark ages.

Bro, we still have 4.5 years to Dhoti Shiver. Till then enjoy the popcorns. By 2024, old war horses like MSY, Humble Farmer, Maratha strongman, Chara-chor, Italian Barmaid, Captain, C-backstabber-N etc will all be in their sunset years (Hope Diggy and Aiyar are still around).

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 16:56

Aditya_V wrote:
abhijitm wrote: I too strongly feel that SP played this pre-poll understanding with SS purely out of vengence of BJP who tried to break his party even when he played nice with them.

Does any one remember Uddhav's press conference on Arrey trees issue before election? He said 'we will punish them (who cut the trees) once we come to power' and I was wondering how will he punish after the poll when he can't punish now? And now I realized he knew all along what's going to happen if BJP doesn't get majority on its own.
BJP contested 150/288 seats, there was no way they would have got majority, they got 105/150 , Shiv Sena won its seats as an ally of BJP and against NCP/SP and INC who they are allied with. It is a murder of democracy. Regarding the trees there is not much option in a city like Mumbai.

Now Bullet Train, Metro work etc is going to stuck , I guess many Indians like a 7th century livestyle.

BJP did try to get majority on its own by fielding "rebels" where they gave up seats. They thought bjp + bjp-rebels + independets - if required - will cross majority mark. The entire 'break ncp' game chandrakant patil played was to cross that line only. But he chose wrong party to break, he should have gone full force against leaderless congress and kept SP as backup plan. But alas.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 16:58

habal wrote:Maharashtra has never had a mid-term poll ever since elections started being held. Once a party/coalition is sworn in it lasts for entire term. For now SP is the chankya and AS is the fastest mover off the block. For now.

Like Mutual Funds, Past has no relevance to the future. SP is no Chanakya, He just got lucky with a greedy and ambitious foe in the opposition camp. Hell, He almost lost his whole CLP within a night while he was sleeping.
ED will soon come calling.