2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

syam · Post by **syam** » 26 Nov 2019 17:00

by the logic of some posters, even lord rama is also opportunist. why align with vibhishan in first place? didn't he know vibhishan was from ravan family and lowest of scum?

#HowToIDNaiveSupporters101

p.s. my sincere apologies to sri rama prabhu.

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Nov 2019 17:05

he 'almost' lost isn't same as lost. Yes, ED will come knocking for sure and we will hear of various anti-migrant and valentine day attacks from maharashtra and channels will have field day maligning bmc, roads, farmers and corruption. But govt will survive if they are disciplined. One difference in politics between north and south of vindhya is party discipline can be exemplary if the whip is cracked and no-nonsense tolerated and the leader is clean. Pawar can not provide such a leadership because he is not clean, neither is AP. But for UT this is an opportunity while it lasts he will try to make most of. I expect AK like drama of odd-even etc right from first day because of threat of destabilization.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 26 Nov 2019 17:09

syam wrote:by the logic of some posters, even lord rama is also opportunist. why align with vibhishan in first place? didn't he know vibhishan was from ravan family and lowest of scum?

#HowToIDFakeSupporters101

p.s. my sincere apologies to sri rama prabhu.

No need for apology, the war of sugreev and bali is a great example of that...to uphold dharm we need to take path that may not be seemingly dharmik

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 17:10

habal wrote:he 'almost' lost isn't same as lost. Yes, ED will come knocking for sure and we will hear of various anti-migrant and valentine day attacks from maharashtra and channels will have field day maligning bmc, roads, farmers and corruption. But govt will survive if they are disciplined. One difference in politics between north and south of vindhya is party discipline can be exemplary if the whip is cracked and no-nonsense tolerated and the leader is clean. Pawar can not provide such a leadership because he is not clean, neither is AP. But for UT this is an opportunity while it lasts he will try to make most of. I expect AK like drama of odd-even etc right from first day because of threat of destabilization.

UT is not clean. Even sena workers don't believe that.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 17:13

Yudhisthra though spoke truth about Ashwathama's killing but with wrong intentions and ended up in Narak for few moments.

Who is to say what is Dharma and what is Adharma. I don't think we ordinary mortals can judge the subtle ways of Dharma so we do our Karma.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 17:15

Okay, my chaiwala reports that the mad scramble for power by DF was not because they hadnt gamed this scenario, but they had and figured they did not have much time, and it was imperative for the CM to make some decisions and sign off a few things. Purely business, and DF was at it literally night and day, with some time off for optics. I dont know if they achieved what they set out to achieve due to lack of time, but atleast they tried. DF literally had no option but to sign up for this.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 17:16

abhijitm wrote:
habal wrote:he 'almost' lost isn't same as lost. Yes, ED will come knocking for sure and we will hear of various anti-migrant and valentine day attacks from maharashtra and channels will have field day maligning bmc, roads, farmers and corruption. But govt will survive if they are disciplined. One difference in politics between north and south of vindhya is party discipline can be exemplary if the whip is cracked and no-nonsense tolerated and the leader is clean. Pawar can not provide such a leadership because he is not clean, neither is AP. But for UT this is an opportunity while it lasts he will try to make most of. I expect AK like drama of odd-even etc right from first day because of threat of destabilization.
UT is not clean. Even sena workers don't believe that.

By Clean, I would assume that not as corrupt as the Strongman or someone who takes money but gets the job done.
I hope, wish and pray that UT provides a good, competent and taint free govt and keeps NCP and Cong looters in check.

'May the saffron surge from Attock to Cuttack, doesn't matter who carries the flag.'

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 17:19

sajo wrote:Okay, my chaiwala reports that the mad scramble for power by DF was not because they hadnt gamed this scenario, but they had and figured they did not have much time, and it was imperative for the CM to make some decisions and sign off a few things. Purely business, and DF was at it literally night and day, with some time off for optics. I dont know if they achieved what they set out to achieve due to lack of time, but atleast they tried. DF literally had no option but to sign up for this.

Maybe Chaiwala can also hint on what were those important files to be signed so urgently else it is all conjectures and trying to make DF look like a victim which he definitely is not. CM signing files can't be hidden from Public.

This was pure power play and a gamble with Ajit bhau.

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Nov 2019 17:23

Vikas wrote: Who is to say what is Dharma and what is Adharma. I don't think we ordinary mortals can judge the subtle ways of Dharma so we do our Karma.

this is my understanding as well.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 17:28

Indeed, it was a massive gamble they were willing to take, and neither was DF a victim of a childish fraud. My point is they signed on willingly knowing fully well that optics would be bad if things go south, which they were.
My Chaiwalas are family whatsapp groups, where half of the members run or attend shakhas, some deep in rural MH.

I do not like overt propaganda and rhetoric from either side, so I simply file those away under chai-tapri gossip section of my brain.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 26 Nov 2019 17:30

So what was the Modi-Pawar meeting about- in retrospect.
Anyone knows?

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 26 Nov 2019 17:31

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/fadn ... 191126.htm
Fadnavis, Ajit Pawar quit ahead of Maharashtra floor test
November 26, 2019 16:10 IST
Devendra Fadnavis on Tuesday announced his resignation as Maharashtra's chief minister, hours after the Supreme Court ordered a floor test in the state assembly.
Earlier in the day, his deputy, Nationalist Congress Party’s Ajit Pawar resigned from the post, just three days after he was sworn in.
"Ajit Pawar told me he was quitting due to personal reasons," Fadnavis said.
"We realised that we don't have the required numbers to form the government and we don't want to indulge in horse-trading," Fadnavis told reporters after announcing his decision.
"We don't have majority after Ajit Pawar's resignation as Dy CM," Fadnavis said. "I will be submitting my resignation to the governor after this media briefing," he said.
Fadnavis says BJP will become the voice of the people as a responsible opposition. "We won't indulge in horse-trading," he added.
Asked if he thought Ajit Pawar extending support to the BJP was a strategy of NCP chief Sharad Pawar, Fadnavis said, "Sharad Pawar will be able to comment on this issue".
.....
Gautam

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Nov 2019 17:44

What a total and complete screw up. Karnataka all over again.

We realised that we don't have the required numbers to form the government and we don't want to indulge in horse-trading

Anyways, round 2 hopefully. The NCP-SS-INC combination will loot Maharashtra dry.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 26 Nov 2019 18:00

sajo wrote: This is serious now, will 2024 picture look similar? Everyone VS BJP? Indic forces must rally behind like never before or else we risk going back to the dark ages.

I thought BJP would give priority to the center and appease UT but they didn't even try to reason with UT. As per reports, AS did not even visit Mathoshree. I just hope BJP has something up its sleeve.

Lot of seats riding in Bihar and Maharashtra. I can only imagine what drama Bihar will bring us.

Rajasthan always alternates. So next time, BJP will probably be back in power.

MadhyaPradesh - People wanted change after 15 years inspite of Shivraj doing good. It's better to let the people experience the change they want and cash in on anti incumbency in the next elections.

Gujarat won't be easy too. BJP had a narrow escape last time.

Just hope by 2024, some of the big names of the congress are in jail and BJP can form the govt again. In the next election cycle, most of the states will be with BJP again. This election cycle is going to be tough.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 26 Nov 2019 18:01

Karan M wrote:What a total and complete screw up. Karnataka all over again.

We realised that we don't have the required numbers to form the government and we don't want to indulge in horse-trading
Anyways, round 2 hopefully. The NCP-SS-INC combination will loot Maharashtra dry.

Karanji
Was this really needed

From sheer optics point of view this is bad
Liberandus will play this up!!!
Two will this have effect on the bypolls in Kar.
J&K leaders refuse to sign bonds
What will be effect of this resignation in J&K
Effect on Jharkhand elections and later WB
I sincerely hope 2024 doesn't turn up of a repeat of 1977 elections with everyone ganging up against BJP
If that happens it will be a disaster and the country will go back 50yrs (With chini,paki,lankan,nepali and Beedi encirclement)
I know someone gave me a sermon on this forum that 2024 is a 'done deal' but given the media blitz and stupidness of the voter(there is a famous poem by Prof Nissar in kannada called Kurigallu Saar kurrigaalu. Worthwhile for some to just get the gist of what he is alluding to in the poem)
The only thing I can think of is 'AP' was a 'Torjan horse' BJP to NCP or vice-versa
I hope it is the latter and he can break things from within!!!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 18:03

somdev wrote:Massive reputational damage for BJP!

Outfoxed by Saheb

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/devendr ... dtvcollage

Form is temporary but class is permanent. This play by Modi/Shah will be forgotten but Sena's oath to Sonia instead of Bal Thackeray will be remembered.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Nov 2019 18:05

BJPs lack of killer instinct is coming back to bite it. MP and Rajasthan should have been knocked over by now. They still seem to be wanting to show off as some "principled party".

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 18:07

sajo wrote:Loudmouths like Raut would be the guns that the wily snake Sharad Pawar is going to wield with impunity going ahead. How do the statistics look of all vs BJP battles look going ahead, would likely to be seen from the MH state.

BJP will gain from this in the long-term. Gyan by a left leaning YoYa during Bihar elections. Same applies here.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 18:11

somdev wrote:Maharashtra will up the coffers/election war chest for BJP's opponents in the interim

Some funding is inevitable but a lot of project funding come from the center and that part can be controlled. One reason for Andhra & Maha drama.

Problem is it will delay projects.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Nov 2019 18:16

The INC if in power would have broken senor scowling face and made sure he buckled. The BJP treated him with kid gloves. They still haven't developed the kind of winner takes all mindset that kept the INC-left ecosystem in power for decades.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 18:23

kittoo wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:
No problem, otherwise SS and INC where playing a drama, now they have openly come out with their agenda- this was a post poll setting but a pre poll alliance, its too contradictory for cadre who have staked all they have. It cant last for long and I believe now NCP and INC will target Shiv Sena while those at Saama and Matoshree will sell out thier cadres. IT should be less than 1 year when we have a new Govt/ in MH.
But the next government is never going to be BJP as long as these guys fight together- pre or post poll alliance.

Doesn't work like that.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 18:26

sajo wrote:I will not be so sure about the talks of 1 year/6 month terms. We underestimate the adhesiveness of money. My bet is it was all Sharad Pawar game from the beginning, right from egging Uddhav on to throwing Ajit Pawar under the bus. Now he has a government who is amenable to himself, which would have been impossible with BJP.

This is serious now, will 2024 picture look similar? Everyone VS BJP? Indic forces must rally behind like never before or else we risk going back to the dark ages.

Money is a binder as well as a disrupter. What will Sena get out of the kichdi that they did not with BJP except the CM ship? They already had BMC.

OTOH, does no one remember the KAR CMs lament? If CM ship was enough CON/JDU would.still be in power.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 18:37

sajo wrote:I will not be so sure about the talks of 1 year/6 month terms. We underestimate the adhesiveness of money. My bet is it was all Sharad Pawar game from the beginning, right from egging Uddhav on to throwing Ajit Pawar under the bus. Now he has a government who is amenable to himself, which would have been impossible with BJP.

This is serious now, will 2024 picture look similar? Everyone VS BJP? Indic forces must rally behind like never before or else we risk going back to the dark ages.

This gov will last 5 years. But in 2024 if BJP again comes in center (3rd term for Modi) then if BJP-MH play smartly, not overconfidently, then there is a chance of NCP aligning with BJP in next election. If BJP loses gen election in 2024 then forget it.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 18:40

I don't think so at ground level in urban areas SS INC NCP cadre are rivals, they will fight

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 18:44

abhijitm wrote: This gov will last 5 years. But in 2024 if BJP again comes in center (3rd term for Modi) then if BJP-MH play smartly, not overconfidently, then there is a chance of NCP aligning with BJP in next election. If BJP loses gen election in 2024 then forget it.

The 2024 battle would be vicious, me thinks, and not as "building up on the momentum" as 2019 was. BJP, in any case, should not align with the NCP. Not even if they remove "congress" from their name.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 18:51

Aditya_V wrote:I don't think so at ground level in urban areas SS INC NCP cadre are rivals, they will fight

check SS supporters today, jubiliant

, I am sure NCP/Cong supporters will be too. Somehow BJP managed to become their 'common enemy' in MH.
Its like Shia, Sunni, Ahmediya. They fight each other after together they finish infidels.

syam · Post by **syam** » 26 Nov 2019 18:58

if only the wishes were horses. I am sure ss supporters already rubbing shoulders with pakis.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 26 Nov 2019 19:04

Karan M wrote:BJPs lack of killer instinct is coming back to bite it. MP and Rajasthan should have been knocked over by now. They still seem to be wanting to show off as some "principled party".

There are many on this forum itself taking umbrage at BJP not doing things the Raja Harishchandra way and turning politics into a morality contest. It is the general itch among Hindus to try to be lily white and prim-and-propah while dealing with cut throats

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 26 Nov 2019 19:46

Well, now that 3 states are gone in a year or so, this will impact the halo of invincibility and advantages that BJP derived from it. Amongst many, I specifically worry about state machinery dragging its feet now. This may cause further issues with a slow economy

syam · Post by **syam** » 26 Nov 2019 20:06

Something seriously wrong with our dna. back in balakot times, we gained much more strategically, but had to defend it day by day because of the whole psyops they did on the day abhinandan got captured. We can't cure this with just online campaign alone. First blood drawn, we fold like some sort of snail. smallest mistake, we label that guy as complete failure(look at our desi weapons).
I wonder if there is any cure to this.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Nov 2019 20:07

sanjayc wrote:
Karan M wrote:BJPs lack of killer instinct is coming back to bite it. MP and Rajasthan should have been knocked over by now. They still seem to be wanting to show off as some "principled party".
There are many on this forum itself taking umbrage at BJP not doing things the Raja Harishchandra way and turning politics into a morality contest. It is the general itch among Hindus to try to be lily white and prim-and-propah while dealing with cut throats

ver very bad ending for Fadvanis. totally depressed

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 26 Nov 2019 20:07

There should be a ban on pre or post poll alliances in India. Caste leaders survive only because of this. They hold some 5 or 10 percent of vote and they play a crucial part in deciding the fortunes of larger parties. Without such caste leaders calling shots, all parties will be forced to think about getting the approval of all sections of the society and not just one caste.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 20:24

Expect a massive boost to Maharashtra's real estate sector!

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 20:34

This is like peace after Munich agreement. Mark my words within 2 years Shiv Saniks will be cursing Uddhav.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 26 Nov 2019 20:41

hanumadu wrote:There should be a ban on pre or post poll alliances in India. Caste leaders survive only because of this. They hold some 5 or 10 percent of vote and they play a crucial part in deciding the fortunes of larger parties. Without such caste leaders calling shots, all parties will be forced to think about getting the approval of all sections of the society and not just one caste.

I find the current legal setup around this, extremely skewed. For one, no ban on lying to electorate about the pre-poll alliance. And if things don't work out between alliance after election, there's complete ban on horse-trading. Either unban the later, or ban on both sides.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Nov 2019 20:44

Look at the bright side - one can safely blame the eevil charterwadi brahminical 'core' for whatever ails the BJP. Only. Sigh.
/sarc off. Coz am sure some won't get it. sheesh.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 20:54

Aditya_V wrote:This is like peace after Munich agreement. Mark my words within 2 years Shiv Saniks will be cursing Uddhav.

Thackrays not used to have criticism from marathi people as they only control the government remotely. This is going to be interesting for UT as criticism will flow left and right no matter what he does.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 26 Nov 2019 20:55

somdev wrote:Maharashtra will up the coffers/election war chest for BJP's opponents in the interim

Six months is not long enough to recoup even the money they might have spent on the elections.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 26 Nov 2019 20:59

Sad ending to what looked like a promising start by ModiJi/AS/Fadnavis. I was suspicious on them pulling it off from the moment senior Pawar didn't seem to be onboard.

I liked the power push, but if it was clear to AS that Ajit Pawar's hold on MLAs was at best shaky, what were they trying to achieve? Even ModiJi seemed confident from his tweet that DF was here to stay. And all this simply based on some untenable support by AP. But maybe there was a bigger game.

Very interesting that bulk of NCP and SS MLAs stay put. And I doubt another 10-15 days of time would have made a difference. AP simply didn't have the horsepower.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 21:08

Vayutuvan wrote:
somdev wrote:Maharashtra will up the coffers/election war chest for BJP's opponents in the interim
Six months is not long enough to recoup even the money they might have spent on the elections.

All BIG projects that are centrally funded will be under central watch. People forget quickly why Andhra Naidu split with BJP.

Money only on locally financed projects. Plus 3 way split. Plus pressure form CON center for maximum wasooli to fill its coffers as it has to fight other elections around the country.

Will Sena share its pie in the BMC? Money binds but also destroys relationship. If politics was a game of 2 + 2 + 2 = 6 OR 6/3 = 2, then all elections can be suspended and politicians can go home. Sonia, Pawarful and Uddhav will take care of the rest.